changes to nab’s quarterly business survey date: 14 july 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
1/13
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
2/13
No embargo
Seasonal reanalysis
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Business confidence next 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Business conditions last 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Trading conditions last 3 months
Seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Profitability last 3 months
Seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Employment last 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Forward orders last 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
2
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Seasonal reanalysis (cont.)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Stocks last 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
79
80
81
82
83
84
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
79
80
81
82
83
84
Net
bal
Net
bal
NewOld
Capacity utilisation last 3 monthsSeasonally adjusted
Impacts of seasonal reanalysis on key business survey series
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Business confidence: new -2 14 18 16 5 7 6 10
Business confidence: old -4 16 18 17 3 9 5 11
Business conditions: new -9 3 9 9 7 5 3 3
Business conditions: old -9 5 9 8 6 5 2 2
Trading: new -3 10 12 11 8 5 3 2
Trading: old -6 12 18 9 4 4 3 1
Profitability: new -6 6 9 9 4 3 0 0
Profitability: old -5 8 9 8 3 4 -1 -2
Employment: new -18 -5 4 7 10 6 5 5
Employment: old -18 -3 5 6 10 6 5 6
Forward orders: new -12 0 8 4 1 -4 -2 0
Forward orders: old -11 1 8 2 2 -3 -2 -2
Stocks: new -12 -5 2 -1 4 1 0 0
Stocks: old -13 -5 3 -1 3 1 1 -1
Capacity utilisation rate: new 80.0 80.4 81.3 81.4 82.2 81.7 81.2 81.5
Capacity utilisation rate: old 80.1 80.5 81.3 81.3 82.2 81.8 81.2 81.3
Net balance
Per cent
The appendix contains sets of more detailed comparisons of key summary measures forindustries and states.
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Export sales
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Exports
Exports and exporters' salesLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
Exporters' sales
To be consistent with the monthly businesssurvey, the exporters sales index, whichrepresents the net balance for exports ofexporters only, has been created in thequarterly survey.
Previously, we only reported the export salesindex, which represents the net balance forexports across the whole economy, includingbusinesses that had no exports. We willcontinue to monitor this series going forward,although it will be renamed the exportsindex.
Note that the exporters sales index declinedmore rapidly than the exports index in 2008.This reflected a decrease in the proportion ofbusinesses that were exporting during thatperiod.
Exports and exporters salesJun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Exporters' sales (new series) -19.0 -9.5 -6.2 -5.7 -4.6 -3.8 -12.6 -9.6
Exporters' sales (new series): s.a. -18.8 -11.6 -7.0 -3.5 -3.3 -6.8 -12.9 -7.4
Exports -4.8 -2.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -2.9 -2.3
Exports: s.a. -5.2 -2.8 -1.7 -0.5 -1.6 -1.3 -2.9 -1.5
Previously "export sales "
Net balance
Sample summary table
Had these changes been implemented in the March quarterly survey, the summary table wouldhave appeared as follows.
Sep Dec Mar Sep Dec Mar
2010 2010 2011 2010 2010 2011
Net balance Net balance
Business confidence 7 6 10 Employment 6 5 5
Business conditions 5 3 3 Forward orders -4 -2 0
Trading 5 3 2 Stocks 1 0 0
Profitability 3 0 0 Exports -1 -3 -1
% change at quarterly rate % change at quarterly rate
Labour costs 0.9 0.6 0.7 Retail prices 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Purchase costs 0.5 0.3 0.6 Per centFinal products prices 0.2 0.2 0.3 Capacity utilisation rate 81.7 81.2 81.5
Seasonal adjustment of additional seriesIn addition to confirming the seasonality of previously adjusted data, seasonality has also beenidentified in a number of previously unadjusted series, including capex, margins, exports,exporters sales (new series), purchase costs, overhead costs and final prices.
Seasonality has not been identified in all of the quarterly business survey measures. Asexpected, no seasonality was detected in the 12-month-ahead measures. While we expectseasonality to be present in average hours worked and borrowing costs data, these seriesbegan in March 2006 and December 2008 respectively so we do not have sufficient time series
data to allow us to determine the magnitudes of seasonality in these measures. As such, wehave left these measures unadjusted and will continue to monitor them as we gather moredata.
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Seasonal adjustment of additional series
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Margins next 3 months
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balNew (sa)
Old (nsa)
Capital expenditure next 3 months
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
% %
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Overhead costs last 3 months
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
% %
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Overhead costs next 3 months
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
% %
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Purchase costs last 3 months
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
% %
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Purchase costs next 3 months
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data
-40
-20
0
20
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-20
0
20
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business conditions: MiningLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business conditions: ManufacturingLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business conditions: Construction
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business conditions: Retail
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: WholesaleLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business conditions: Transport & utilitiesLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: Finance/business/propertyLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: Recreation & personalLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business confidence: Mining
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business confidence: Manufacturing
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business confidence: ConstructionNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
OldNew
Net
bal
Net
bal
Business confidence: RetailNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business confidence: WholesaleNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
OldNew
Business confidence: Transport & utilitiesNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business confidence: Finance/business/property
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business confidence: Recreation & personal
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: MiningLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: ManufacturingLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
New
New
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
10/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: ConstructionLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: RetailLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
NewNew
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: Wholesale
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
Employment: Transport & utilities
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
New
New
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: Finance/business/propertyLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
Employment: Recreation & personalLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
New
New
10
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of state data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: NSWLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: VICLast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: QLD
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business conditions: SA
Last 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business conditions: WALast 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business confidence: NSWNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of state data (cont.)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business confidence: VICNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Business confidence: QLDNext 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business confidence: SA
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Business confidence: WA
Next 3 months, seasonally adjusted
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8/6/2019 Changes to NABs Quarterly Business Survey DATE: 14 July 2011
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Macroeconomic, Industry & Markets ResearchAustralia
Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) 8634 2927
Jacqui Brand Personal Assistant +(61 3) 8634 2181
Rob Brooker Head of Australian Economics & Commodities +(61 3) 8634 1663
Alexandra Knight Economist Australia +(61 3) 9208 8035Ben Westmore Economist Australia & Commodities +(61 3) 8634 8602
Michael Creed Economist Agribusiness +(61 3) 8634 3470
Dean Pearson Head of Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2331
Gerard Burg Economist Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2788
Robert De Iure Economist Property +(61 3) 8634 4611
Brien McDonald Economist Industry Analysis & Risk Metrics +(61 3) 8634 3837
Tom Taylor Head of International Economics +(61 3) 8634 1883
John Sharma Economist Country Risk +(61 3) 8634 4514
Tony Kelly Economist International +(61 3) 9208 5049
James Glenn Economist Asia +(61 3) 9208 8129
Global Markets Research - Wholesale Banking
Peter Jolly Head of Markets Research +(61 2) 9237 1406
Robert Henderson Chief Economist Markets - Australia +(61 2) 9237 1836
Spiros Papadopoulos Senior Economist Markets +(61 3) 8641 0978
David de Garis Senior Economist Markets +(61 3) 8641 3045
New ZealandTony Alexander Chief Economist BNZ +(64 4)474 6744Stephen Toplis Head of Research, NZ +(64 4) 474 6905Craig Ebert Senior Economist, NZ +(64 4) 474 6799Doug Steel Markets Economist, NZ +(64 4) 474 6923
London
Tom Vosa Head of Market Economics - Europe +(44 20) 7710 1573David Tinsley Market Economist Europe +(44 20) 7710 2910
Foreign Exchange Fixed Interest/DerivativesSydney +800 9295 1100 +(61 2) 9295 1166Melbourne +800 842 3301 +(61 3) 9277 3321Wellington +800 64 642 222 +800 64 644 464London +800 747 4615 +(44 20) 7796 4761New York +1 800 125 602 +1877 377 5480Singapore +(65) 338 0019 +(65) 338 1789
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