Changing climate: Can plants and animals keep up?

As climate changes, organisms may:Go extinctEvolve adaptation to the new

environmental conditionsMove to environments they are

already adapted to

As climate changes, organisms may:Go extinctEvolve adaptation to the new

environmental conditionsMove to environments they are

already adapted to

How fast must organisms move to keep up with changing climate?

Surface Temperature versus Elevation

Relatively modest displacements in space = relatively large changes in temperature

SR Loarie et al. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08649

Changing temperature in California.

SR Loarie et al. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08649

The velocity of temperature change globally.Differentemissionsscenarios

The velocity of temperature change by biome.

Third highest velocity

Land-cover change results in formidable barriers to species movement. Thus, keeping pace with climate change is more feasible in protected areas where landscapes may be less fragmented

Organ Pipe National Monument

Climate residence time (yr) in protected areas.Residence time =Diameter of area/velocity (km/km yr -1)

Residence time =Diameter of area/velocity (km/km yr -1)= time for currentclimate to cross area

Ninth highest residence time

Velocities and residence times for climate and not species29% of the globe with velocities > 1

km/yearTrees were thought to have moved about 1

km/year after the last glacial maximumMost plants and animals move much slower

than 1 km/yearWe understand very little…