changing climates for adaptation
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Changing Climates for Adaptation. Bonnie J. McCay Fate of the Earth: Environment and Human well-being Michigan State University April3, 2014. General Lessons. Wicked problems… Rittel & Webber 1973 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
BONNIE J. MCCAYFATE OF THE EARTH: ENVIRONMENT AND
HUMAN WELL-BEINGMICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
APRIL3, 2014
Changing Climates for Adaptation
General Lessons Wicked problems…
Rittel & Webber 1973
Governance of complex systems should be “polycentric” (Ostrom) and “interactive” (Kooiman)
Beyond panaceas E. Ostrom 2007
Act boldly, risk failure AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand) But be adaptive
Holling; Gunderson et al.
Muddling through strategically Chas. Lindblom
[Participate] Early and Often A. Capone?
Once they have seen gay Paree Cultural inertia and resistance
You can’t go home again; Path dependency;
irreversibility. ITQs Horse is out of the barn
[Too little, too late]. Acidification
Market-based Ecosystem-based
Commodity-focusedExclusive and
tradeable withdrawal or use rights
EfficienciesConcentration Incentives for user-
funded research
Multiple-speciesRegime shiftsProtected areasHard choicesMulti-stakeholderScale issuesSpatial planning
trends in marine fisheries management
Shifting paradigms
Climate change: Fates & consequences for the earth’s oceans
Warmer sea temperatures
Changes in stratification, upwelling, etc.
Glacier Melting and Reduction of sea ice
AcidificationExploitation pressure
Harvesting Dredging Dumping Introducing alien species
Changes in living communities: plankton, benthos, pelagics
Changes in ecologically productive and sensitive habitats: coral reefs, grass beds, kelp forests, submarine canyons and mtns; etc.
Effects on coastal places—sea level rise, storm surges, salinization…
DIMINISHED ECOSYSTEM SERVICES & ELEVATED DANGERS
Hurricane Sandy from space, Oct. 2012
And then comes the sea
“Comedies of the Commons”
People as problem-solvers as well as problem-creators
People as social beings, trying to deal with and correct what seems out of kilter.
“The drama of humans as social rather than private beings, a drama of social actions having a frankly corrective purpose.” (M.E. Smith, 1984; McCay and Acheson 1987).
“The Commons”
Framework for thought and action“tragedy of the commons” –open access, profit-
seeking, little communication or governance.“romances/comedies of the commons” –
governance, communication, boundaries of various kinds, efforts to manage for present benefit and sustainable futures.
Objectifications: Leviathan, Hidden Hand, Noble Savage….versus more complex unfoldings, social and ecological processes, unexpected outcomes (Boonstra & Heung 2011)
Four stories
Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons and/or regime shifts
New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and climate change
Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the commons, community-based control and co-management. Marine reserves and resilience.
Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification: surprise, adaptive responses.
“Tragedy of the Northern Cod”Fishery closed June
1992.
Plot of a tragedy….
Late 1980s, small-scale fishers petitioned for study, review
Government scientists found errors in stock assessments
Fishery continued nonetheless
Official disaster 1992
Contexts: collapse and privatization of corporate, industrial fisheries
Inaccuracies, analytic problems with data
“We’re all to blame”Scope and scale of
fish stocks versus ‘communities”
Responses after the cod collapse. Emergence of a more complicated plot
Leave fisheries (especially for shale oil and mining in western Canada); rural depopulation
Diversify into crustacean fisheries (crab and shrimp), more capital-intensive; more precautionary, exclusive management.
Variable water temperatures; quest for stability, with vested interests and political commitments
Eco-Certification: commitments to sustainable fisheries through MSC
US Northeast: Responses to Climate Change
Fisheries followed the fish….but only 10-30% as much.
Economic & regulatory constraints
Effects on fish stocks of lagged human responses?
Incorporation into fish stock assessment and management?
Source: Nye et al. 2009Pinsky & Fogarty 2012; McCay 2013
Surf ClamCase
Decline in southern portion of clam distribution
Some industry shift north but…
50% of landings from two ten minute squares, tho’ decline in catch rates
Opening of northern clam beds despite PSP risks, 2013
Industry resists scientific & regulatory changes; ITQs & global competition
Surfclam case study
FISHING COOPERATIVES OF THE VIZCAINO PENINSULA,
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Local-level & nested commons management: a Mexican case
Spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus)
Baja Calif. Linkages…
-116 .00 -115.60 -115.20 -114 .80 -114.40 -114 .00 -113 .60 -113 .2026 .20
26 .40
26 .60
26 .80
27 .00
27 .20
27 .40
27 .60
27 .80
28 .00
28 .20
28 .40
28 .60
28 .80
29 .00Zona Pacífico Norte, Áreas Concesionadas a cada Cooperativa
P unta Abreojos
P rogresoLeyes de R eform a
C alifornia de San Ignacio
Em ancipación
B ahía T ortugas
B uzos y P escadores
La P urísim a
P escadores N acionales de Abulón
Successful Local-Level “Commons” Management:
Being benthic: close scale match between scale of the coop fisheries and biology of the major species
& the productivity, visibility and legibility of the resources and fisheries involved;
Strong commitment to enforcement and democratic decision-making
clarity of social and territorial boundaries;
adjacency and linkages among territorial units; federation
tight embeddedness of the cooperatives and fisheries within communities. (isolation, dependency)
McCay et al. 2013 (Marine Policy)
Coupling and “negative feedback”—Fishery cooperatives of BCS, Mexico
Threats of severe loss through closures“Co-management” arrangements with
government agencies“Self-management” internal rules for
lobster & abaloneNested “governance” systems, supported by
larger political, legal, social systems, linked to larger marine conservation community, globalized markets, and consumers (scales)
Experimental marine reserves: Isla Natividad
Managing for resilience: the Marine Protected Area experiment
2010 the Coop established experimental closed areas for abalone reef management, with help of NGOs & scientists.
Improved lobster & abalone.
Local monitoringAnoxic event 2012, die-
off of abalone.Commitment to marine
reserve strategy
Whiskey Creek Hatchery, Oregon Responses
2007-08 die-off CO2; carbonate less
available, esp. upwelling water
Industry lobby; funds for research; Monitoring systems; increase carbonate levels; Lummi use saltwater pond
Research, experimentation
Change in practices in hatcheries
Responses to Acidification: the West Coast Oyster Case
What to do?
Tall orders national, international,
and regional authorities Global, regional, ‘large
marine ecosystem’ scales ENGO and government-
led programs: coral triangle; MPA networks; Marine spatial planning; high seas fisheries; dealing with IUU; Eco-certification;….
Short orders Local and community-
oriented Small scale enterprises Traditional & experience-
based knowledge partnerships for
“commons” science & management
Place-based TURFs and MPAs
Community-supported fisheries
Linkages
Vertical : “Co-management” & nested governance Local group/ outsiders
(NGOs, scientists)/ government authority
Shared decision-making, authority, responsibility
Large- and small-scale fisheries
Horizontal: networks Ex.: Too Big to Ignore
network (Canada); 2nd World Small-Scale
Fisheries Congress 21-25 Sept. 2014, Merida, MX
World Ocean CouncilEco-certification
programs Marine Stewardship
Council
Four stories
Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons and/or regime shifts;
New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and sea temperature change
Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the commons, community-based control and co-management. Marine reserves and resilience in face of ocean changes.
Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification: surprise, adaptive responses.
>>all beg the question of ecosystem-based management
Ecosystem-Based Management & Adaptive Governance
Challenge---large spatial scope, more complex subject: Centralized decision-making for multi-disciplinary expertise, knowledge accumulation and analysis, interagency coordination
But also more Decentralized and Participatory across multiple scales, to monitor and capture detailed knowledge about ecological & social processes across local to global scales
Wilson 2009
General Lessons It’s wicked…
Rittel & Webber 1973
Governance of complex systems should be “polycentric” (Ostrom) and “interactive” (Kooiman)
You can’t go home again; Path dependency; irreversibility.
ITQs Horse is out of the barn
[Too little, too late]. Acidification Beyond panaceas
E. Ostrom 2007
Act boldly, risk failure AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand) But be adaptive
Holling; Gunderson et al. Muddling through vs.
Strategic Planning Chas. Lindblom
[Participate] Early and Often A. Capone?
Once they have seen gay Paree Cultural inertia and resistance
Thank you
Questions?