changing transitions to adulthood in developing countries highlights from nrc/iom panel report
DESCRIPTION
Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report. Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars June 9, 2005. Outline. Framework and context Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Changing Transitions to Adulthood in
Developing Countries
Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report
Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 9, 2005
Outline
• Framework and context
• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health
• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood
• Policy and program implications
Rapid Global
Change
Changing National Context
Changing Local
CommunityContext
Changes in Individual
Resources/Attributes
duringTransition
Changes in the
Transition to Adulthood
Conceptual framework
Source: NRC/IOM (2005)
Rapid Global
Change
1980
2005
2030
Africa
Asia
Latin America/Caribbean
1.1 billion
1.5 billion
1.7 billionSource: NRC/IOM 2005
Demographic profile of young people (10-24) in developing countries
Population of young people (ages 10-24)as percent of 1980 level
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Congo (Dem Rep)
Pakistan
Nigeria
Egypt
India
Brazil
Mexico
China
Source: UN estimates and projections [http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp]
What do young people need to achieve successful transitions?
• Good health, including knowledge and means to sustain health
• An appropriate stock of human and social capital to become a productive adult
• Prosocial values and the ability to contribute to the collective well-being
• Adequate preparation for the assumption of adult social roles and obligations
• The capability to make choices
Source: NRC/IOM (2005)
Outline
• Framework and context
• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health
• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood
• Policy and program implications
Schooling
• Growth in school attendance and grade attainment has been unprecedented
• Gender gap, where it still exists, is closing rapidly
• Young people spend more of their adolescence in school
• Large differentials in school attendance by wealth and residence persist
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Age Age
Cameroon (1998)
Age
Ethiopia (1999)
Age
Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)
Ghana (1998-99)
Age
Pakistan (2001-02)
Age
Percent ever attended school, 6 countries
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Boys Girls
Source: DHS and AYP data
School attendance,15-19 year olds, by socio-economic status
(weighted averages)
3828
6759
0
20
40
60
80
100
Boys Girls
Per
cen
t cu
rren
tly
enro
lled Lowest 40% Highest 20%
Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys 1990-2001, 48 countries
• Comparative data from standardized test scores raise serious concerns
• Poor school quality compromises attendance and retention
Student test scores by country2000-2001 (aged 15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Reading Math
Japan
USA
Thailand
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Brazil
Indonesia
Peru
Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (2003)
Health and reproductive health
• Health improving overall, except in areas hard hit by HIV
• In most regions, higher prevalence of HIV among girls than boys
• For young women, maternal mortality/morbidity still among most significant risks
• Young men disproportionately affected by accidents, violence, war, and suicide
• Mental health problems — a substantial, and possibly increasing, share of illness
Health behaviors
• Students are less likely to have had sex than non-students
• Students are more likely, if sexually active, to use contraception than non-students
• Condom use is very low but increasing; contraceptive use is rising among sexually active young women
• Smoking rates are high; use of illicit drugs and alcohol is likely to be rising
Percent ever having had sex, ages 15-17, by enrollment status
0
20
40
60
80
100
Brazil Peru Kenya Tanzania Ghana Coted'Ivoire
Per
cen
t
Students Non-Students
Source: NRC/IOM 2005
Outline
• Framework and context
• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health
• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood
• Policy and program implications
Transitions to work
• Delays in school exit have led to later labor force entry, declines in child labor
• Rise in schooling has led to a greater equalization of work burdens by sex
• Poverty is the main cause of child labor
• Increased numbers of young people have entered the labor market without any large relative increases in unemployment rates
• Young women are increasingly likely to engage in paid employment
• More educated workers have higher earnings, greater job stability and mobility
Female employment rate, Brazil 1977 and 2001 (ages 10-25)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10 15 20 25
Per
cen
t w
ork
ing
2001 1977
AgeSource: NRC/IOM 2005
Transitions to citizenship
• Successful transitions to citizenship are important to development
• Young men are more likely than young women to be active politically
• Young people are more likely than older people to participate in community organizations
• Young people have greater trust in religious institutions and the press than public institutions
Livelihoods Program in Ghana
• A variety of institutions and programs can be important to citizenship formation
Transitions to marriage
• A smaller proportion of young people are married than previously
• Declines in early marriage (before 18) are widespread. Nonetheless, prevalence of child marriage remains significant in some regions
• Large differentials in age of marriage by education, wealth, and residence persist
• Typically, there is a distinct gap between the age of school leaving and marriage
Trends in percent of women married by age 18
0 20 40 60 80 100
South America
Caribbean/CentralAmerica
Middle East
Eastern/SouthernAfrica
Western/MiddleAfrica
South-Central/Southeastern Asia
20-24year olds 40-44 year olds
Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2001.
Vietnam, 1999
0%
50%
100%
10 15 20 25 30
Age
Mexico, 2000
0%
50%
100%
10 15 20 25 30
Age
School and marriage status, females, by single years of age
Source: NRC/IOM (2005)
Left school
MarriedKenya, 1999
0%
50%
100%
10 15 20 25 30
Age
Brazil, 1999
0%
50%
100%
10 15 20 25 30
Age
Transitions to parenthood
• Young men become parents later than young women, allowing more time to prepare
• Age of first parenthood is rising; the pace of change is highly variable
• 90% of births occur within marriage; no change in 20 years
• Mean length of first birth interval is declining everywhere
• Patterns of premarital childbearing vary substantially by region
Outline
• Framework and context
• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health
• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood
• Policy and program implications
Policy and program implications
• Target policies and programs to the poor, especially poor girls
• Invest in significant improvements in primary school quality, building a base for secondary school expansion
• Promote gender equity in the arenas of citizenship, work, marriage, and parenthood for all social classes
• Encourage active collaboration between health and education sectors in designing multi-pronged reproductive health programs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Trends in Grade Attainment (Percent Completed 6 or More Years)
Girls Boys
40-44 yrs old 20-24 yrs old
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 100
Source: DHS and AYP data
Percent Currently Enrolled (15 year olds)
Boys Girls
Africa
Asia
LatinAmerica
20 40 60 80 100
Source: DHS
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Age Age
Cameroon (1998)
Age
Ethiopia (1999)
Age
Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)
Ghana (1998-99)
Age
Pakistan (2001-02)
Age
Percent completed 6+ years, 6 countries
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Boys Girls
Source: DHS and AYP data
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Age Age
Cameroon (1998)
Age
Ethiopia (1999)
Age
Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)
Ghana (1998-99)
Age
Pakistan (2001-02)
Age
Combined data - 6 countries
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
0
25
50
75
100
40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14
Boys Girls
Source: DHS and AYP data
4654 56 57 58 58 58
2633
4045 48 50 53
0
20
40
60
80
100
40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
Age Range
Per
cen
t
Boys Girls
Trends in percent completing primary school, 24 African countries
late 1960s early 1970s late 1970s early 1980s late 1980s early 1990s late 1990s
Author estimates)(Source: Hewett and Lloyd (2005)
Media access, 15–19 year olds
0
20
40
60
80
100
West/MiddleAfrica
South/EasternAfrica
Carib/CentralAmerica
SouthAmerica
Female
Male
Householdownership oftelevision
Watch televisionat least once/week:
Source: DHS, all women surveys
Per
cen
t
Percent Distribution of Countries by Type of Change: A Comparison of 20-24 Year
Olds to 40-44 Year Olds
IncreaseNo
Change Decrease
Marrying by 18 2.4 22.0 75.6
Having Premarital Sex by 18 58.5 39.0 2.4
Having Sex by 18 22.0 46.3 31.7
Note: Based on 41 DHS countries
Ratio of Proportion of Unmarried Women Aged 15-17 Who Ever Had Sex Among Those Not Currently Enrolled vs. Enrolled,
by Overall Proportion in School
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Guatemala
Zimbabwe
Bolivia
Note: Age standardizedSource: DHS Surveys, 1995-2001
Pr o
po
r tio
n w
ho
ev
er
ha
d s
ex
Ag
ed
15
- 17
(N
ot
i n s
c ho
ol /I
n
sch
oo
l)
Proportion in schoolLatin America Africa
Trends in Percent of Women Who Marry and
Have a First Birth Before Age 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: NRC/IOM 2005
Per
cen
t
SouthAmerica
Carib/CentAmerica
FormerSoviet
East/SouthAfrica
West/Middle Africa
SC/SEAsia
MiddleEast
40-44 year olds
20-24 year olds
MarryBirth