Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Types of elections

Primary / Caucus• Designed to choose the parties

nominee• Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman,

Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012

• Types:• Closed: must declare in advance that

you are a member of the party to take part in this election• About 40 states (why? )

• Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on• 8 states

• Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties• Washington & Alaska

General

• Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office• Example: Obama vs.

Romney

Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

Types of Elections• Primary / Caucus• How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) http://

nj.gov/state/elections/candidate_pdf/partisan-candidate-requirements-123011.pdf

• It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million)• In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised

the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination

• What is a Caucus?• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg• 19 states

• Why do most states hold primaries?• C’s are too time consuming!!!!• About 10% turnout

Primaries / Caucuses• So where does that $ go?• Organization

• Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists

Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary • only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s

nomination• G. W. Bush in 2000• Clinton in 1992

So what do you have to do to win? Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather1. What can help a candidate gain momentum?2. How long does the “invisible primary” last?3. Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa

caucuses still seen as important?4. Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual

nomination?

Primaries / Caucuses• Need to motivate voters to

turn out for you• Primary turnout low

• About 20%• This results in candidates trying

to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election• Republicans: need to appear

conservative• Democrats: need to appear liberal• During the general election

candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent• Can result in “Clothespin voting”

Presidential Primaries / Caucuses• When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who

will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. • Much like the electoral college

The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election.

• Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states• Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner

take all system or a proportional system• NJ = winner take all

Delegates

Democrats• Total number of delegates: 4,339

Pledged: 3,537Unpledged: 802

• PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES• Based on % of democratic vote in

that state in the past 3 presidential elections

• UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980) Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total.• This equals 15% of pledged

delegates

Republican• Total Number of Delegates: 2,066

Pledged: 1,907Unpledged: 159

• Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House

• BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: • the state cast a majority of its votes for the

Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election

• the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities

• and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).

General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns

Presidential

• More voters participate• Typically about VEP 60%

turnout since 1964• More party turnover• Past 20 elections

• Republicans 9 times• Democrats 11 times

Congressional• Less voter turn-out, especially

during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..)• Typically about 36% turnout since 1964

• Historically less party turnover(recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010)

Why less turnover?!? • Incumbency advantage

• More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents)

• Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington”

• Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected

How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ http://nj.gov/state/elections/petitions/2012-general-president-inst.pdf

Presidential Elections• Who does the public prefer?• Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

Presidential Election• Theme?• A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over

and over and over and over and over (you get it)• Obama: Forward• Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years

• If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record

• Tone? • Positive?• Build me up

• Negative?• Knock them down

Negative Campaigning

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLj6yY4P_Rg Jefferson and Adams

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k Daisy

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y Willy Horton

• Timing?• Start too early and you may go broke, too late and

you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition

• Targets?• Who are the undecided in this election? How will

you sway them?• Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting”• New demographics(see next slide)

Targets: Demographics• http://

www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/nj?hpt=elec_racenav • Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!!

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/gop_11-08.html• What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out

to to win the next presidential election ? • How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without

changing their core beliefs?

Presidential Elections• What types of issues will the candidate focus on?• Position: rival parties take different stances

• Taxation: • Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt• Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy

• Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept• Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime• Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

Presidential Elections• Who is going to be your Vice

President?• Need to pick someone who will

appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” • Youth / Experience• Regional • Moderate / Conservative or Liberal• Unify party after bitter primary

• Classic examples• Kennedy and Johnson• Reagan / G.H.W. Bush

• How does Obama /Biden reflect this?

• How does Romney / Ryan reflect this?

• Classic Anomaly:• Clinton / Gore

Presidential Elections• How will you “advertise” your candidate?• TV• Debates• Direct Mail• Internet

General Election and the Electoral College• http://

hallnj.org/press/press-releases/1561-video-release-hall-institute-and-league-of-women-voters-nj-release-video-psa-to-dispel-first-time-voting-myths

• http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133559n&tag=showDoorFlexGridLeft;flexGridModule

Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint sessionHow are electors chosen?What happens if there is a tie? (1825)

election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for pres and VP to avoid rivals holding office together http://news.yahoo.com/photos/2012-election-maps-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252F2012-election-maps-slideshow%252Felection-maps-photo--47474268.html How the 2012 election broke down, various maps

Electoral College

Pros

• Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism• “Extended Republic”• Need to appeal to a variety

of voters, not just one faction or region

Cons

• Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people• Can have faithless

electors• Doesn’t reflect the idea

of 1 person, 1 vote• Wyoming has one "elector"

for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499.

Campaign Spending• Reading:• Summarize the rules governing campaign finance

• FECA• BCRA / McCain Feingold Act• Public Funding

• Buckley v. Valeo• What was Buckley’s argument?• What did the Supreme Court rule?• How does this currently impact elections?

Campaign Finance• “There are two things that are important in politics.• The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one

is.”

• —Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895

Hard Money vs. Soft money:Hard money : money given directly to a candidate’s campaignSoft Money: money used to promotes issues

PACs and Super PACs• Political Action Committees• Created in 1940s by the CIO as a way to contribute to FDR’s campaign• Organizations that have developed with the sole purpose of helping a

candidate to get (re)elected to office• Individuals and organizations can contribute up to $5,000 annually to

a PAC• PACs can legally contribute only $5,000 to a candidate committee per

election (primary, general or special). • They can also give up to $15,000 annually to any national party

committee, and $5,000 annually to any other PAC.• However, there is no limit to how much PACs can spend on

advertising in support of candidates or in promotion of their agendas or beliefs.

• PACs must register with and file detailed financial reports of monies raised and spent to the Federal Election Commission.

PACs and Super PACs• Traditional PACs include two distinct types of political

committees registered with the FEC:• separate segregated funds (SSFs) • political committees established by corporations, labor

unions, membership organizations or trade associations that can only solicit contributions from individuals associated with the sponsoring organization• Microsoft PAC

• No connected committees • not sponsored by or connected to any of the listed

organizations and are free to solicit contributions from the general public, subject to campaign contribution limits. • National Rifle Association

PACs and Super PACs• Created as a result of 3 Court Decisions• In January 2010, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to

McCain-Feingold. Ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the court said that the government cannot prevent corporations and unions from spending unlimited money to support or criticize specific candidates.

• Drawing on this decision in March 2010, a federal appeals court ruled in SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission that political committees making independent expenditures—that is, spending not coordinated with or directed by a candidate’s campaign—could accept donations of unlimited size.

Super PACs

PACs and Super PACs• https://

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmQ37zm7-uU&playnext=1&list=PL4DCB26A567603634&feature=results_video

• Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result.

• In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits.

• According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents.

• They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another.

• List of current Super PACs• http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/superpacs.php?cycle=2012

Presidential Campaign Spending• http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

Review Basics Can do Can’t doPACs (1940s)

NRAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3M7cTb68_I Hard money

Only purpose is to get a candidate elected

Donate directly to a candidate(s)Donate directly to a campaign. Must disclose donorsEndorse a candidate

Accept more than $5,000 in individual donations , can’t donate more than $5,000 to an individual candidate

Super PACs (2010)Restore our Futurehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4uTKnhjH1M&feature=relmfu

Soft Money

Designed to promote a candidate and/or specific issues during an election

Accept unlimited donations from , endorse a specific candidate , support issues, must disclose donors

Donate to or work with an individual candidate or a political party

527sEmily’s ListCitizens Unitedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPfr4GvJG1g

Soft money

Only purpose is to promote issues during an election, turning into Super-PACs

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations (as a result of citizens), support an issue , must disclose donors

actually support a candidate : basically can’t say “vote for x” donate to a candidate

501 (c) (4) sCrossroads gpshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT8xAlxKV-w

Soft money

Social welfare organization that can use some of its funds to promote issues

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations , support an issue , don’t need to disclose donors

spend more than 50% of organizations wealth on “educating” people on issues during a campaign actually support a candidate : basically can’t say “vote for x” donate to a candidate

Citizen’s United and the 2012 Election: A Case Study• http://

topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html

• http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/magazine/how-much-has-citizens-united-changed-the-political-game.html?pagewanted=all

• Basic information about Citizens United

• Impact of Citizens on 2012 election • Write a 1 paragraph

reaction to this article.