chapter 12: decision making joel cooper university of utah
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Chapter 12: Decision Making
Joel Cooper
University of Utah
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Try It!• Write your name on a piece of paper and indicate the truth of
the following statements– 1 means you are sure it is true, 10 means you are sure it is false
Truth Rating
1. Martin Luther King was 39 when he died.
2. The gestation period of an Asian elephant is 225 days.
3. The earth is the only planet in the solar system that has one moon.
4. The number of lightning strikes in the United states per year is 25 million.
5.The Rhöne is the longest river in Europe.
Collect the sheets.
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Try It Answers
• Martin Luther King was 39 when he died• The gestation period of an Asian elephant is not
225 days--It is 645 days• The earth is the only planet in the solar system
that has one moon. False, Pluto also has one moon
• The number of lightning strikes in US is approximately 25 million
• The Rhöne is not the longest river in Europe
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Decision Making
• 2 DM models– Prescriptive models– Descriptive models
• Cognitive psychologists are interested in how people actually make decisions
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Classical Decision Theory
• Assumptions – All options known– Pros/Cons understood– Rationally chose– Goal: maximize value
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Howard’s Dilemma• Thagard & Milgram (1995)
“An eminent philosopher of science once encountered a noted decision theorist in a hallway at their university. The decision theorist was pacing up and down, muttering, ‘What shall I do? What shall I do?’
‘What's the matter, Howard?’ asked the philosopher.
Replied the decision theorist, ‘It's horrible, Ernest I've got an offer from Harvard and I don't know whether to accept it.’
‘Why Howard,’ reacted the philosopher, ‘you're one of the world's great experts on decision making. Why don't you just work out the decision tree, calculate the probabilities and expected outcomes, and determine which choice maximizes your expected utility?’
With annoyance, the other replied, ‘Come on, Ernest. This is serious.’ ”
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Subjective Utility Theory
• Goal – Seek pleasure and avoid pain– Decision utility is subjective
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Satisficing
• Just good enough
• Term introduced by Herbert A. Simon in his Models of Man 1957 – Bounded rationality
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Elimination by Aspects
• Tversky (1972)– Start w/ many options– Determine the most important attribute – select a cutoff value for that attribute– All alternatives below cutoff are eliminated– Repeat until one remains
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Heuristics Influencing Decision Making
• Representativeness• Availability• Anchoring & adjustment • Overconfidence• Illusory correlation• Hindsight bias• As if• Confirmation Bias• Framing• Mental Representation
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Representativeness Heuristic
Judgments strategy in which we make estimates on how similar (or representative) an event is to its population.
Coin toss: Which is more representative?HHHHHTTTTTHTHTHTTHHT
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Representativeness Heuristic
Frank is a meek and quiet person whose only hobby is playing chess. He was near the top of his college class and majored in philosophy. Is Frank a librarian or a businessman?
Consistent with librarian stereotype, but there are many more businessmen, so base rates make it much more likely that Frank is a businessman.
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Base-rate Information
• The actual probability of an event– Librarians, business men?
• Much research in the 1970’s &1980’s seemed to indicate that base rate information in these type of problems were ignored
• Current research focuses on when participants do attend to base rates
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Representativeness Heuristic
• Judge probability of an event based on how it matches a prototype
• Can be accurate • Can also lead to errors• Most will overuse representativeness
– i.e. Frank’s description fits our vision of a librarian.
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Gamblers Fallacy
Suppose you are at a roulette wheel and the last 8 spins have come up red.
Do you bet on red or on black for the next spin?
Red and black equally likely -- no statistical reason to select red over black (or visa versa).
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Availability Heuristic
The ease of bringing an example to mind is a means of estimating the probability of occurrence (likelihood)
Frequent events will be easy to recall
Rare events will be difficult to recall
Bias -- tendency to overestimate rare events- Lightening Strikes, JAWS, Gambling
I won 5 bigagillion-zinllion-million!
You could be next!
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Availability Heuristic
In the English language, are there more words beginning with the letter K or more words with K in the third position?
People often report 2 x as many words beginning with K
But there are many more words with K in the third position than in the first.
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Making Decisions
• Which are you more afraid of?– Flying in an airplane– Driving in a car
• Meyers (2001)– 37 times safer per passenger mile in planes than motor
vehicles» Air Transport Association 1995-1999
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Schwartz (1991)• Manipulated how many instances participants
had to give of previously being assertive – Group 1: Recall 6 examples of personal
assertiveness – Group 2: Recall 12– How assertive are you on a scale of 1 X– Group 1 more assertive than group 2– attributed (by researcher) to the availability heuristic
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Anchoring Heuristic
Early and late evidence given more weightU shaped function
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Anchoring-and-Adjustment
• People are influenced by an initial anchor value
• Anchor value may be unreliable, irrelevant, and adjustment is often insufficient
• Auntie L’s rent
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Anchoring-and-Adjustment
• Calculate the following problems:– 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8=– 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1=
• The order of presentation for these two groups had a significant impact on their estimates
• The correct answer, in both cases, is 40,320!
512 2,250
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Car for Sale
• Clean• Fuel efficient• Dependable• Slight rust• High mileage
• High mileage• Slight rust• Dependable• Fuel efficient• Clean
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Overconfidence
• People tend to have unrealistic optimism about their abilities, judgments and skills
• Examine your confidence judgments about future events asked on a previous slide—are you confident your judgments are accurate?
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Try it again…Predict your past answer
Your past answer
1. Martin Luther King was 39 when he died.
2. The gestation period of an Asian elephant is 225 days.
3. The earth is the only planet in the solar system that has one moon.
4. The number of lightning strikes in the United states per year is 25 million.
5.The Danube is the longest river in Europe.
1 means you were sure it was true 10 means you were sure it was false
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Illusory Correlations
• An illusory correlation is a perceived relationship that does not in fact exist
• Two events, bound together– Redelmeier and Tversky (1996) – 18 arthritis patients observed over 15 months– The weather was also recorded– Most of the patients were certain that their condition was
correlated with the weather– The actual correlation was close to zero
• What illusory correlations may affect your decisions?• Wash the car… Bam!
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Demonstration- Future events
• Predict whether you will experience these events this semester
1. Obtain an A in your favorite course.2. Have an out-of-town friend visit you.3. Lose more than ten pounds.4. Drop a course after the 5th week.5. Be the victim of a crime.6. Get a parking or speeding ticket.
• How confident are you of your judgment for each item? (100%, 80%, 60%.....)
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Dunn & Story (1991)
• Examined overconfidence of students– At beginning of the semester students were
given 37 items like the ones on the previous slide
– At end of the semester, students were asked to indicate which events had actually occurred
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Dunn & Story (1991)
• Students tend toward overconfidence• Confidence influences decisions, yet our
confidence may be unrealistic• Why is this a problem?
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Hindsight Bias
• The memory of how we acted previously changes when we learn the outcome of an event
• Dating
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“As If” Heuristic
When several sources of evidence with different reliability are presented, people tend to treat all cues “as if” they had the same reliability
Jurors, Nurses, Military
Manifestation of cognitive simplification
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Confirmation Bias
Subjects focus on positive evidence
Hypothesis-driven behavior
Cognitive tunnel vision
Tend to ignore negative evidence (even though equally diagnostic)
+Evidence
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Decision Making
Which cards do you need to turn over to obtain conclusive evidence of the following rule:
A card with a vowel on it will have an even number on the other side
E K 4 7X X
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• If under 21 then beerless
• 19,22,nothing,beer
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Decision Making
Answer:E -- search for positive evidence7 -- search for negative evidence
4% search for positive & negative evidence33% say E only (missing negative evidence)46% say E & 4
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Framing
• Rönnlund, Karlsson, Laggnäs, Larsson, & Lindström (2005) – Examined the impact of framing on
risky decisions – Manipulated age (young/older) and
type of framing (positive/negative) – Participants read one of 3 scenarios– Participants selected either a risky or
certain outcome
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Sample Scenario• Suppose you have invested in stock equivalent to the sum of
$60,000 in a company that just filed a claim for bankruptcy. They offer two alternatives in order to save some of the invested money:
• Positive Framing– If Program A is adopted, $20,000 will be saved (certain
outcome)– If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that
$60,000 will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no money will be saved (risky outcome)
• Negative Framing– If program A is adopted $40,000 will be lost (certain outcome)– If program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that no
money will be lost, and 2/3 probability that $60,000 will be saved (risky outcome)
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Rönnlund, et.al. ResultsPe
rcen
t sel
ecti
ng th
e ce
rtai
n op
tion
Type of Framing
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Symbolic Comparison
Which is bigger:An elephant or a whale?An ant or a termite?A bee or a goat?A whale or a goat?A rabbit or a cat?
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Symbolic Distance Effect
1 vs 2? 1 vs 5?1 vs 9?
As the difference increases, time to make decision decreases
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Congruity Effect
Which is smaller: 1 vs 2? (faster)Which is larger: 1 vs 2? (slower)
Which is smaller: 8 vs 9? (slower)Which is larger: 8 vs 9? (faster)
When there is a congruity between the instructions and the symbols, decisions are faster and more accurate
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Mental Representations
Mental representations are not linear- large differences are compressed so that 1 vs 2 is a “bigger difference” than 8 vs 9
Car $5,000 vs $7,000 House $155,000 vs $157,000
Which deal are you most likely to accept?
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Chapter 13: Human Intelligence
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What Do You Consider Intelligence?
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Intelligence Is…
• Capacity to learn from experience
• Ability to adapt to different contexts
• The use of metacognition to enhance learning
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Emotional Intelligence
• Mayer & Salovey (1997) “The capacity to reason about emotions, and of emotions to enhance thinking. It includes the abilities to accurately perceive emotions, to access and generate emotions so as to assist thought, to understand emotions and emotional knowledge, and to reflectively regulate emotions so as to promote emotional and intellectual growth”
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Social Intelligence
• Ability to get along with others
• Knowledge of social matters
• Insight into moods or underlying personality traits of others
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Historical Trends
• Emphasize psychophysical abilities– Galton– Examine relationships of sensory abilities
(psychometrics)• Weight/Light discrimination
• Emphasize on judgment – Binet (1904)– Identify children needing special instruction – Compared child’s abilities to what the average
child at that age could do
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Historical Trends
• Terman (1900s)– Created an English version of Binet’s
test (called it the Stanford-Binet)– Created the intelligence quotient– IQ = MA/CA * 100
• 6/4 * 100 = 150!• 20/40 * 100 = 50!
– Became the first modern “intelligence” test
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Types of items on the Stanford-Binet
Age Task
4 Fill in the missing word when asked, "A puppy is a dog, a kitten is a _______.
9Answers correctly when the examiner says, “Yesterday, the scientist went into the swamp to capture a dinosaur. What is foolish about that?
12 Fills in the missing words of sentences like "The rivers are flooding because…."
Adult Can describe the difference between happiness and elation, and virtue and morality.
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Wechsler Intelligence Scales
• Wechsler created scales for adults, children, and preschoolers
• Yield 3 scores– Verbal score– Performance score– Overall score
• Most widely used intelligence test
• Infinite complexity a single number!
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Types of Items on the Wechsler
Verbal Scales Performance Scales
Information Picture completion
Digit span Picture arrangement
Vocabulary Block design
Arithmetic Digit symbol
Comprehension Object assembly
Similarities
Could culture play a role in this?
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Nature, Nurture, or Both?
• Is intelligence genetic?
• Is intelligence acquired?
• Is intelligence a combination of both?
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Nature and Nurture
Relationship CorrelationIdentical twins reared together .86
Identical twins reared apart .72
Fraternal twins reared together .60
Siblings reared together .47
Siblings reared apart .24
Biological parent and child living together .42
Biological parent and child, separated by adoption .22
Unrelated children living together .32
Adoptive parent and adopted child .19
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Confounds
• Twins suffer from prenatal disease together
• Twins are not often separated at birth
• Adoption agencies seek similar living environments for twins
• Physical appearance, metabolic rates, resistance to disease, physique etc. etc.
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Factor Analysis
• Primary method used to describe intelligence structure
• Correlations among many dependent variables are examined
• How many different factors are needed to explain the pattern of relationships among these variables?
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Factor Analysis Matrix
Reading Numerical Visual
Paragraph comprehension 0.84 0.10 0.06
Sentence completion 0.86 -0.05 -0.01
Word meaning 0.81 0.04 -0.02
Counting dots 0.08 0.91 0.04
Identifying shapes 0.02 0.82 0.10
Multiplication -0.24 0.87 -0.02
Paper folding 0.05 0.20 0.77
Block patterns -0.03 -0.01 0.65
Series completion 0.02 0.04 0.57
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Number of Factors in the Structure of Intelligence
• Spearman says two• Thurstone says seven• Guilford says 150• Cattell, Vernon, and Carroll propose
hierarchical models
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Spearman’s “g” Factor
• Two-factor theory of intelligence– All intellective functioning was due to an
overall mental ability – “g”– Accompanied by specific abilities for differing
mental tasks
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Thurstone’s 7 Primary Mental Abilities
• Verbal comprehension
• Verbal fluency
• Inductive reasoning
• Spatial visualization
• Number
• Memory
• Perceptual speed
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Guilford
• SOI Model– Structure of
Intelligence– Each cube represents
an intersection of operations, products and contents to create 150 components of intelligence
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Cattell’s Fluid and Crystallized Intelligence
• Fluid intelligence– Ability to reason and use information– Peaks approximately at age 20
• Crystallized intelligence– Acquired skill and learned knowledge– Continues to increase into old age
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Historical Trends & Intelligence
• In the past, focus was on the product, identify aptitudes, measure, and create models based on data
• During 1960’s & 1970’s conceptualization changed to what are the processes involved?
• Information processing models focus on the processes that are involved in intelligence
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Information Processing & Intelligence
• Inspection time– How long a stimuli has to be viewed before
an accurate judgment can be made– How quickly a person gives their answer is
irrelevant, participants are encouraged to take their time
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Inspection Time Demonstration
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Inspection Time and IQ
• Nettlebeck & Lally (1976)– First to note the relationship
• Nettlebeck (1987) – Inspection time accounts for 25% of IQ
variance (r = -.5)– The higher the IQ, the less stimulus time
needed to accurately inspect the stimuli– Big issue now is direction of causation
between the two variables
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Intelligence and Other Processes• The speed at which we process thought can
explain why one individual is more intelligent than another
• Choice Reaction Time– Jensen
• Lexical Access Speed– Hunt – Speed of word retrieval
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Working Memory & Intelligence
• Being able to store and manipulate information in working memory is related to level of intelligence
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Componential Analysis• This approach involves identifying the steps in complex
information-processing tasks and seeing how each process contributes to the decision
• Sternberg’s componential analysis on solving analogiesRed : Stop :: Green : ____
Graceful: Clumsy :: late : _____– Encode - Identify each term of the problem– Inference - Discover rule between 1st two terms– Mapping - Map rule to second set of terms – Application - Apply relationship and generate final term
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Sternberg’s Findings
• Measured amount reaction time for each step
• Found more intelligent participants took longer to encode, but less time to complete the remaining steps
• Global versus local planning
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Contextualist View of Intelligence
• Culture and definition of intelligence are intertwined
• Differs from one culture to another
• Critical in one culture may be unimportant in another culture
• Measurement of intelligence will be influenced by culture
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Evidence Supporting Cultural Influences
• Italian Americans’ IQ study– First generation median = 87– Ceci (1996) Italian Americans
scores were slightly above average (above 100)
– Cultural assimilation is the explanation
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Gardner’s Multiple Intelligences
• Eight types of abilities that are independent of one another– Visual / Spatial Intelligence– Musical Intelligence – Verbal Intelligence – Logical/Mathematical Intelligence– Interpersonal Intelligence – Intrapersonal Intelligence – Bodily / Kinesthetic Intelligence – Naturalist Intelligence
• So what is IQ a measure of ?
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Gardner’s Theory
• Is modular, each type is independent of another
• Allows for existence of savants