chapter 18, section iv. traditional methods political party organizations party leaders in cities...
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MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION
Chapter 18, Section IV
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Traditional Methods
Political Party OrganizationsParty leaders in cities communicated with
national party leaders keeping them posted about the publics attitudes and opinions
Interest GroupsOften represent only a small vocal minority
concerned with a specific issue
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Traditional Methods
Mass MediaNewscasts that get higher ratings show
more public interestDrawbacks are that media relies on shock
value and this can distort reality○ People that get their news solely from TV tend
to be pessimistic
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Traditional Methods
Shock Value Examples
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Traditional Methods
Letter WritingInterest groups stage massive letter writing
campaigns generating thousands of lettersNational Write Your Congressman
○ For profit service that sums up legislation and helps you contact your elected officials
Purple Letter○ For profit service
that helps you contact electedofficials
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Traditional Methods
Electronic AccessEmailFaxTwitterInternet
Straw PollsUnscientific attempts to measure public
opinionBiased sample – people who respond are
self selected (they choose to respond)
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Scientific Polling Sample Populations
The Universe: group of people being studied○ If I asked the senior class where the prom should be
held, what would be the universe?Representative Sample: Small group of people
representative of the universe○ If I asked every fourth senior homeroom the same
question, I would have a representative sample of your class
Random Sampling: Everyone in the universe has an equal chance of being selected○ 1,200-1,500 adults accurately measure the opinions of
212 million people
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Scientific Polling
Sampling Error: How much the sample results may differ from the sample universe1,200-1,500 people
give us an error of +/- 3%
Unskewed Polls
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Scientific Polling
Sampling ProceduresCluster Sampling – organizing sampling by
geographical divisions○ Race○ Gender○ Age○ Education
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Scientific Polling
Poll QuestionsDo you believe serial murderers should be
executed?Do you support capital punishment?
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Scientific Polling
Mail and Phone PollsCheaper than in home interviews
○ Less polls are returned (mail only 10-15%)Random Digit Dialing
○ Area code and first three digits are selected and a computer picks the last 4
○ People don’t answer the phone, or don’t want to answer the questions
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Scientific Polling
Interpreting ResultsNever completely accurate
○ Honesty?Has improved greatly since its inception in
the 1930’sCan usually predict outcomes within a few
percentage points