chapter 18. the common stock market types of markets trading mechanics stock market indexes pricing...
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 18. The Common Stock Market
• Types of markets• Trading mechanics• Stock market indexes• Pricing efficiency
Common stock
• equity security• ownership• entitled to distributed earnings• entitled to share of assets
I. Type of Markets
•exchanges•OTC trading of •unlisted stocks & listed stocks
•direct trading
Exchanges
• physical location for trading• trading by members
• own a seat on the exchange
• stock traded on exchange are listed stocks
NYSE• the “Big Board”• about 2800 listed U.S. companies
• & 450 non-U.S. companies
• $18 trillion market value (2/04)• 1366 seats (fixed)
• seat price $2 million 2002• 10/2003 $1.35 million
• stocks trade at post on the trading floor• 20 posts, trading about 100 stocks
• each stock has one specialist• 10 specialist firms, 470 specialists• each specialist has 5-10 stocks• process trades from floor brokers (5%) and electronically (95%)
role of the specialist•MUST maintain a fair and orderly market for stock•act as buyer or seller as needed (10% of trades)•match buyers and sellers•maintain order priority
the future of the specialist
• may be phased on with next 5-10 years• recent SEC fines for improper trading for several major firms
AMEX
• merged w/ Nasdaq 1998• specializes in equity derivative securities and closed-end funds
Regional exchanges
• stocks may be listed on both NYSE and regional exchange• 5 regional exchanges• cheaper seat prices
OTC markets
• electronic network of dealers all over the world• ECNs
• electronic communication networks
• more than one dealer per stock• not obligated to make a market
Nasdaq
• not the only OTC system, but the largest• over 4000 companies listed
• mkt. value $2 trillion (2/28/03)
• leader in daily share volume• over 500 dealers• listing requirements
II. Trading Mechanics
• types of orders• short selling• buying on the margin• institutional trading
Types of orders• instructions from investors to brokers• market order
• buy/sell order to be executed at best price-- get lowest price for buy order-- get highest price for sell order
• market order (cont.)• market orders given priority in trading• no guarantee of execution price
-- price could rise/fall from time order is placed to time it is executed
• limit order• buy/sell order where investor specifies price range• “buy at $50 or less”• “sell at $52 or more”• specialist records orders in
limit order book
• investor sets reservation priceBUT• no guarantee that limit order will be executed
• stop order• order lies dormant • turns into market order when certain price (“the stop”) is reached• “buy if price rises to $60”• “sell if price falls to $58”
-- stop loss order
• investor does not have to watch market• but in a volatile market stop could be triggered prematurely
-- end up trading unnecessarily
• stop limit order• turns into limit order when stop is reached• “buy if price rises to $60, but only is executed at $65 or less”
• market if touched order• turns into market order if certain price is reached• “buy if price falls to $55”• “sell if price rises to $62”
how long is an order good?
• fill or kill order• executed when reaches trading floor, or canceled
• good until canceled/open order• is good indefinitely
order size
• round lots• lots of 100 shares
• odd lots• less than 100 shares• more difficult to trade
• block trades• 10,000 shares or $200,000 value
short selling• sale of borrowed stock• profit from belief that stock price is too high will fall soon• how?
• borrow stock through broker• sell stock• buy and return later
• short selling could further destabilize falling prices• tick test rules on exchange
• short sales allowed if• uptick or zero uptick in price for previous trades:• $20.75, $21 (uptick)• $20.75, $20.75 (zero upick)• $20.75, $20 (downtick)
• so short sellers• believe price will fall and SOON• but price not currently falling• face unlimited losses if price rises
Buying on the margin
• buyer borrows part of purchase price of stock, using stock as collateral• borrow at call money rate
• Fed sets initial margin requirement• minimum cash payment• 50% since 1975
• if stock price falls• collateral worth less• if collateral worth only 125% of loan (maintenance margin)
-- margin call-- owner must put up more cash or sell stock• margin calls can worsen stock crash
example
• 1000 shares, $20 per share• $20,000 cost• $10,000 cash, borrow $10,000
• leverage• gains/losses on $20,000 capital• but tied up only $10,000 capital
• if prices falls to $12,• value of stock $12,000• below 125% of $10,000 loan• get a margin call
Institutional trading
• vs. retail trades• institutional trades are larger• special execution• over 50% of NYSE share volume
block trades
• large # shares in one stock• executed in “upstairs” market
• other firms directly take other side of trade
• remainder executed on trading floor or Nasdaq (downstairs)
program trades
• large # shares, different stocks• used by mutual funds for asset allocation• want
• low commissions• prevent frontrunning
what is frontrunning?
• brokers trade ahead of program trade• to benefit from anticipated price movements• due to large trade
example
• broker buys ahead of large buy order• broker buys first• large buy order pushes up price• broker’s holdings increase in value
• result• frontrunning starts to push up price, so firm does not get best price
agency basis
• brokers bid for trade by commission• low commission, but• frontrunning likely
agency incentive agreement
• set benchmark value for trade• based on last day’s prices
• if broker does better• gets commission + bonus
• higher commission, but• frontrunning less likely
III. Stock market indicators
• measure average performance of a group of stocks• different indexes are highly correlated:
• DJIA & S&P 500 .991 (1990s)• DJIA & NYSE .95
indexes differ due to
• stocks included in the index• weighting of stocks
• equal, price, value
• average• arithmetic• geometric
stock exchange index
• includes all stocks listed on exchange• NYSE Composite• Nasdaq Composite• (both value weighted)
subjectively selected index
• organization picks group of stocks to measure• Dow Jones Industrial average• S&P 500
DJIA
• price weighted• 30 large blue chip companies
• cross section of industries• leaders
• large movements in DJIA may halt trading on NYSE
S&P 500
• 500 large blue chip companies• value weighted• most popular benchmark for index funds
objectively selected index
• inclusion of stock based on objective criteria•market value
•Wilshire 5000•all publicly traded stocks
•Russell 2000• largest 3000 companies, then takesmallest 2000 of those
IV. Pricing Efficiency of the Stock Market
• what information is reflected in current stock prices?• what implications does this have for active vs. passive investment strategies?
3 levels of price efficiency
• what are they?• implication?• evidence for U.S. stock markets?
Weak form efficiency
• current stock prices reflect • information about past prices • and trading history
implication
• if markets are weak-form efficient• using past price/trading pattern to predict future stock prices will not work• so, technical analysis will fail to beat the market
evidence
• U.S. stock market is weak-form efficient• technical analysts do not beat the market
• especially after trading costs
Semi strong form efficiency
• current stock prices reflect• all publicly available informationrelevant to stock
-- economic data-- financial statements
implication
• using public info to predict future stock prices will not work• fundamental analysis will fail to beat market
evidence
• mixed• Yes
• most actively managed portfolios do not outperform randomly selected portfolios
• No.• certain pricing anomalies persist for long periods of time• January effect• size effect
Strong form efficiency
• current stock prices reflect all information• public and private
implication
• impossible to predict future stock prices• stock prices are a random walk
evidence
• U.S. stock market is not strong form efficient• why?
• corporate insiders consistently outperform market• & they have access to private info
active strategy
• using fundamental or technical analysis to select stocks to buy/sell• growth, sector, value funds• trading on this info increases
• trading costs• tax consequences
• odds of working are low
passive strategy• believe market is efficient, just capture long-run returns of market• buy-and-hold diversified portfolio
• index funds
• lower expenses, defer taxes• index funds outperform most actively managed funds