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CHAPTER 3CHAPTER 3LOOKING TO THELOOKING TO THE

FUTURE...FUTURE...

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CHAPTER 3 - LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

Global Climate Forecasts

3.1 How do we Predict ClimateChange?

3.2 What will Happen in the Future?

3.3 Can we be Confident in ourPredictions?

3.4 How will the Global Climate Look inthe Future? - Short-Term

3.5 How will the Global Climate Look inthe Future? - Long-Term

3.6 What Impacts will Climate ChangeCause Globally?

Regional Climate Forecasts

3.7 How do we Predict RegionalChange?

3.8 How will Jersey’s Climate Look in theFuture?

The science behindclimate change is solid.Observations on a globaland local scale show thatglobally climate ischanging andtemperatures increasing.

The next question is whatwill happen in the future?Climate forecasting is notan exact science andpredictions are uncertain.However, with everincreasing resourcesdevoted to this topic,forecasting skills arecontinually improving.

This chapter addresseshow computer modelsare used to predictglobal climate. Itconsiders the accuracyof the predictions and theconfidence we can havein them. We examine theoutput of the models interms of climaticinfluence and humanimpacts.

The second sectionexamines how regionalmodels are used toforecast climate on alocal scale. The UKHadley Centre’s forecastsfor the Channel Islandsare discussed providingan indication as to howour local climate maychange in the comingcentury.

Nearly every day a new report seems to be

released identifying potential consequences

of climate change if we fail to act now. On

what are these predictions founded and can

we have confidence in them? What do they

predict will happen to our planet and our

island?

CHAPTER 3 - LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

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3.1 HOW DO WE PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE?Andrew Casebow

1. Clouds affect the heating and cooling ofthe atmosphere.

On a cloudy day less radiation (heating)from the sun reaches the Earth’s surface,but on a cloudy night less radiation escapesso some of the heat generated in the day istrapped and the temperature near thesurface remains relatively warm. Thedetailed properties of the clouds are alsoimportant. Cirrus cloud high up in theatmosphere lets sunlight through but trapsinfra-red radiation, which stops heatescaping from the surface. Low-levelclouds reflect sunlight and trap little infra-red radiation and so result in a cool surfaceclimate.

2. The oceans take much longer to warm upthan the land.

They also move heat around the globe. Forexample, the North Atlantic drift, anextension of the Gulf Stream brings warmwater from the Tropics to northern Europe,and has a strong effect on ourtemperatures.

3. Land surface properties influence howmuch radiation is absorbed.

Land covered in trees are darker in colour,absorbing more and reflecting less radiationthan deserts and ice covered areas for

Day-to-day weather variations and changes inclimate over long timescales are predictedusing computer models. The models simulatethe working of the real atmosphere by solving aseries mathematical equations based on well-established laws of physics. These laws definethe behaviour of the atmosphere and henceour weather and climate, but they onlyapproximate reality.

Two things have helped to improve theperformance of weather and climate models inrecent years. First, research has increased ourknowledge of the real world, which is fed intothe models and second, the speed and powerof computer calculations has increasedmarkedly, allowing much more detail to berepresented in the models. The process ofmodelling the climate is explained in Box 1.

IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SCIENCE

The climate system is highly complex with manypotential interactions and feedbacks. Asmodelling capabilities have improved, more ofthis complexity has been included in themodels. The Hadley Centre’s current ‘state ofthe art’ climate models include fully interactiveclouds, oceans, land surfaces and aerosols, aswell as detailed chemistry and carbon cyclecalculations. It is worth thinking about whythese processes are important and a fewexamples are highlighted here:

Box 1 Image Credit: Planet Guernsey and Chris Regan, 2007

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LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

instance, which reflect more and absorb lessradiation.

4. Aerosols.

These atmospheric particles, such as sulphateand black carbon are produced naturallyfrom volcanoes and forest fires, as well as byhumans from fossil fuel power stations andother industrial activity. They have a shortterm cooling effect by reducing the amountof sunlight reaching the surface (the so-called dimming effect).

5. The chemistry and carbon cycledetermines how much CO2 remains in theatmosphere.

Currently the biosphere (plants, soils, andphytoplankton) absorbs half the CO2

produced by man. However, this may notcontinue indefinitely as soils could start to

release carbon if temperatures risetoo much.

THE RESULTS

Dr Vicky Pope, Head of the ClimatePredictions Programme at the UK Met Office’sHadley Centre notes: “The latest computermodels predict similar possible globalaverage temperature changes to modelsused five or ten years ago, but we are muchmore confident that they are correct,because they are based on so much moreinformation.”

Now that man-made climate change isestablished beyond reasonable doubt andfurther global warming is inevitable, it is evenmore important to improve predictions ofclimate that we are likely to experience infuture.

How have climate models developed?

(a) An example of an early computerused for climate modelling, evenroom-filling machines had less than 1%of the power of a 1990’s laptop.

(b) As computing powerand modelling skillimproved the globe wasfirst broken into a flat gridto create two dimensionalmodels beforeimprovements totechnology andknowledge allowed 3Drepresentations withinteraction betweenvertical layers. Models ofthe ocean andatmosphere wereeventually linked to allowheat exchange.

(c) Supercomputers worth millions of pounds arenow used for climate modelling. Despite the highprocessing power models can still take days tocomplete a run due to the number ofcalculations required.

(d) The findings of climate models arenow integrated into other modelscalled ‘impact models’. Thesemodels determine how factors suchas ecology, the economy or availableresources (e.g. crops) may change inresponse to the climate.

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3.2 WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE?James Le Ruez

The fourth IPCC Assessment Report modelsuse four scenarios with six assumptionsdepending on the nature of futureeconomic development and whetherenergy and fossil fuel usage remain high ordecrease. The likely greenhouse gasemissions associated with each scenario arefed into climate models to determine theclimatic impact of each (see Box 1).

CLIMATE IMPACT MODELS

Recently, scientists have taken a differentapproach, reducing the complexity of theclimate aspect of models to incorporateother considerations in more detail. This freesup computer power to allow greater analysis

We are all familiar with campaigns toencourage us to lessen our contribution toclimate change, be it as simple as turningdown a thermostat, switching off equipmentor taking the bus to work. However, due tothe existing greenhouse gases in theatmosphere we are already locked into acertain degree of climate change. Even if allgreenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow,we would still see the effects of climatechange for many years.

The inevitability of these changes is due tothermal inertia, mainly from the oceans, whereheat is released into the atmosphere longafter it is absorbed. The long lifetime of CO2

and other greenhouse gases means that theireffect will continue for many years.

With current atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentrations, models suggest averagesurface air temperature would increase byabout 0.5°C by 2100 and 1°C by 2400. Sealevels would also increase by 11 cm by 2100due to thermal expansion alone and continueto increase by approximately 10cm a century.This projected increase is more than twice the5 cm rise that has occurred since the 1950’s.In addition, fresh water from melting ice sheetsand glaciers could at least double the sealevel rise caused by thermal expansion.

However, we know that carbon emissions willnot stop immediately and climate changepredictions must try to account for futureemission changes.

If we assume they continue at the currentlevel, models suggest warming of between 2°to 6°C by the year 2400 and a sea levelincrease of about 25cm a century.

EMISSIONS SCENARIOS

It is highly unlikely that emissions will remain attheir current level. Developed nationscontinue to use increasing amounts of energyand recently carbon emissions from lessdeveloped nations such as India and Chinahave risen markedly. On the other hand,energy efficiency is improving and some fossilfuel supplies are becoming less abundant.Conflicts and political instability can also havea major effect upon the availability of fossilfuels.

A Global Scenario

It is difficult to determine a specificglobal storyline (see opposite page).Although Britain is moving towards anA1T or B1 scenario China’s dependenceon coal means it fits into the A1FI story-line.

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of the impacts of climate change forexample, on population, whether rainforestsflourish or decay in different atmosphericconditions and how food crops may benefitor suffer. Economic aspects such as demand

and availability of oil and gas and theresultant price changes can be factored intothe models by altering the emissions ofgreenhouse.

Box 1What are the scenarios?

(a) The IPCC have issued a Special Report onEmissions Scenarios (SRES). The differentscenarios can be thought of schematically asa circle split into four segments.

The upper half of the circle are the ‘AScenarios’ and these represent a futurewhere there is rapid economic developmentover the next 100 years. The lower half of thecircle are the ‘B scenarios’ and these indicatea world where the environment’s well being isof greater importance than economicgrowth. The circle can also be split into its leftand hand side.

The left hand side, the ‘1 scenarios’ representa future where development is global inscale. This is compared to the right hand side,’the 2 scenarios’ where development isfocussed regionally. One scenario is notconsidered any more likely than another andimportantly, none of these scenarios includeconsideration of global warming mitigationinitiatives.

(b) This plot details the emissions ofcarbon dioxide each year until 2100 forboth the two lowest and two highestemission SRES assumptions. The B1scenario results in the lowest emissionswith annual emissions beginning to fall by2040. The A1F1 scenario is the only otherscenario where annual emissions peak by2080. This is due to the high use of fossilfuels until now, meaning the supply ofthese fuels has reached a maximum andcan no longer be sustained. As the A2scenario does not suffer from this over-use, revealing highest annual emissionsby 2100 of nearly 30 gigatonnes CO2.

(a)

(b)

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3.3 CAN WE BE CONFIDENT IN OURPREDICTIONS? James Le Ruez

including or excluding various forcingfactors, we can see how the model forecastcompares with what has known to havehappened. If a model performs poorly witha certain element excluded, it is clear thatelement has considerable influence on theclimate. Such experiments have highlightedthe influence of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere.

In the SRES scenarios in section 3.2, modellerstook 1900 as a starting point and used twoscenarios. The first used natural factors only,the other included natural factors andgreenhouse gases resulting from humaninfluences. The results of such experiments,conducted by the IPCC are shown in Box 2.They reveal that excluding greenhousegases results in an inaccurate temperatureprofile for the last century, supporting thehypothesis that greenhouse gases have hadan influence on the climate over the lastcentury as discussed in Chapter 2.

ACCURACY

Using a range of starting conditions, all ofequal likelihood, in a set of different models,a range of possible outcomes can bedetermined as shown in Box 1. The closerthe outcomes from the different model runs,the greater the confidence we can havethat the results produced closelyapproximate the future.

Despite advances in technology andexpertise, climate models do not accountfor everything. For example, due to thecomplexity of ice sheet flow, a realisticmodel of its affects has not yet beenestablished. As understanding of ourclimate improves further and computerpower increases, this and other effectscurrently excluded will gradually beincorporated in more sophisticated models.

ATTRIBUTION

Models can also be used to attribute knownhistoric changes in climate to certainfactors. By running a model from a giventime in the past using historical data and

Box 1

One method used to improve the confidence in a model is to use multiple runs. Thesethree predictions of changes in summer mean temperature by 2100 were generated byusing the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model and the output is consistent with similarruns from other global climate models.

Source: Hadley Centre

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IPCC CONFIDENCEThe IPCC are very careful in thelanguage they use to identify theconfidence in their projections. Theyuse statistical measures to establishthe percentage chance of a forecastresult being true and link theirlanguage to these statistics.

IPCC definitions of probability of occurrence:

Virtually certain: more than 99%Extremely likely: more than 95%Very likely: more than 90%Likely: more than 66%More likely than not: more than 50%Very unlikely: less than 10%Extremely unlikely: less than 5%

Box 2

It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 yearsaveraged over each continent except Antarctica. The observed patterns of warming,including greater warming over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, areonly simulated by models that include anthropogenic forcing. The ability of coupled climatemodels to simulate the observed temperature evolution on each of six continents providesstrong evidence of the human influence on climate.

Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

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The previous articles have highlighted how theforecasts generated by computer models arethe result of many decades of scientificexperience and represent the best predictionsof the future we can achieve. Here wehighlight what these models indicate is themost likely climatological outlook in both theshort and long term.

TEMPERATURE

Projected warming in the 21st century showsscenario independent geographical patternssimilar to those observed over the past severaldecades. Warming is expected to be greatestover land and at most high northern latitudes,

and least over the Southern Ocean and partsof the North Atlantic Ocean. See Box 1below.

It is very likely that hot extremes, heat wavesand heavy precipitation events will continueto become more frequent.

PRECIPITATION AND STORMS

Extratropical storm tracks are projected tomove poleward, with consequent changes inwind, precipitation and temperaturepatterns, continuing the broad pattern ofobserved trends over the last half century.

James Le Ruez

3.4 HOW WILL THE GLOBAL CLIMATE LOOK INTHE FUTURE?… IN THE SHORT-TERM

Box 1Global temperature forecasts under different emissions scenarios, Top = B1, Middle =A1B, Bottom = A2. The greatest temperature rises are predicted to be over land ratherthan sea and the poles as opposed to the equator. Temperature rise is relative to the1980-1999 average.. Source: IPCC, AR4, 2007

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Box 2Relative changes in precipitation (%) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999.Values are averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for Dec-Feb (a) and Jun-Aug (b).Multiple models were used and white areas indicate regions where less than 66% of themodels agreed in the sign (i.e. positive or negative) of the change. Stippled areas arewhere more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change.

(a) (b)

REFERENCE

Sourced from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.For the full report go to http://www.ipcc.ch/

Increases in the amount of precipitation arevery likely in high latitudes, while decreasesare likely in most subtropical land regions(by as much as about 20% in the A1Bscenario in 2100), continuing observedpatterns in recent trends (See Box 2 above).

Based on a range of models, it is likely thatfuture tropical cyclones (typhoons andhurricanes) will become more intense, withlarger peak wind speeds and more heavyprecipitation associated with ongoingincreases of tropical sea surfacetemperatures.

ICE AND THE OCEANS

Dynamical processes related to ice flow,not included in current models butsuggested by recent observations, couldincrease the vulnerability of the ice sheetsto warming, increasing future sea level rise.Understanding of these processes is limitedand there is no consensus on theirmagnitude.

If radiative forcing were to be stabilised in2100 at A1B levels, thermal expansion alonewould lead to 30cm to 80cm of sea levelrise by 2300 (relative to 1980 – 1999).Thermal expansion would continue formany centuries, due to the time required totransport heat into the deep ocean.

The Meridional Overturning circulation(MOC) is a key process in North Atlantic

oceanic circulation including the GulfStream Based. Current model simulationspredict that it is very likely that the MOCwill slow down during the 21st centuryhowever, It is considered very unlikely thatthe MOC will undergo a large abrupttransition during the 21st century.

Current global model studies project thatthe Antarctic Ice Sheet will remain toocold for widespread surface melting and isexpected to gain in mass due toincreased snowfall.

Contraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet isprojected to continue to contribute to sealevel rise after 2100. Current modelssuggest that ice mass losses increase withtemperature more rapidly than gains dueto precipitation.

http://www.ipcc.ch/

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Andrew Casebow

Centre for Climate Change Research. Thisshows that decisions over the next few yearsby the major greenhouse gas emittingnations (and by us all), will leave a legacy ofincreasing climate change over the nextmillennium unless there is a major reductionin emissions.

Obviously the storylines, or possible scenarios,that lie behind the climate change modelswill vary enormously, and as a consequencethe change in the earth’s climate could bequite minimal if appropriate long term actionis taken immediately, or severe if humanityadopts a ‘business-as-usual’ approach. Thereport notes that:

“The most important potential contributor tothe long term forcing of the climate systemby human activities is the amount of fossilfuel carbon we emit to the atmosphere asthe greenhouse gas CO2. The reasons arethat the potential emissions of CO2 are hugeand it has a long lifetime in the atmosphere;even after ~1000 years, at least ~15% of CO2

emitted will remain in the atmosphere.”

Most projections of future climate changefocus on this century. The obvious reason forthis is that beyond this period relativelyaccurate predictions become moredifficult. They also become less meaningfulto most of us when the predictions are for aperiod of time beyond humancontemplation, and beyond the possiblelifetimes of our immediate descendants.

Projections for the period 2080 – 2100 leavethe near surface air temperature and sealevel still rising, and in some models the rateof change seems to be still increasing.However, climate changes will not stopoccurring. If, as many predictions indicate,greenhouse emissions are still increasing,albeit at a slower rate, and temperatureincreases are still occurring, then where willall this lead?

THE TYNDALL REPORT

In 2006, the UK Environment Agencycommissioned a report into climate changeover the next 1000 years from the Tyndall

3.5 HOW WILL THE GLOBAL CLIMATE LOOKIN THE FUTURE?… IN THE LONG-TERM

(a)

(b)

Box 1(a) Abrupt climate changeevents as seen in the NorthAtlantic region. Surfacetemperatures drop about 3°C ataround 2200 as the Greenlandice sheet completely melts. Ataround 2800 Arctic icedisappears and the gulf streambecomes vigorous causingNorth Atlantic seas to heat byup to 8°C.

(b) Northern hemisphere sea icearea in million square km. Sea-ice rapidly retreats from theArctic Ocean and at around2800 it disappears competely.

Source: Tyndall Centre Report (2006)

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The report says that by the year 3000:

Temperatures could rise from 1.5oC (ifemissions are minimised) to as much as 15oC(if we continue burning fossil fuels), which ismore than double what the IPCC predict onthe centennial timescale.

Only the minimum emissions scenario canprevent global temperatures from rising morethan 2oC above pre-industrial levels. This isthought to be the maximum warmingacceptable without the risk of long-termdangerous consequences (defined in thereport as ‘a global sea level rise of 2m,because it would flood many low lying citiesand displace hundreds of millions of people’).

Sea levels will still be rising at the end of themillennium and could reach 11.4m above thepre-industrial level by 3000. Low lying areas ofJersey and the UK, including London andmany major cities, would be threatened bysea level rise.

Ocean pH is predicted to fall dramatically(increasing acidity), posing a threat to marineorganisms.

Abrupt climate change events could occur(see Box 1). Business-as-usual emissions couldlead to “a rapid climate change event in the22nd century.” One model predicts asouthward shift in a diminished Gulf-Streamcaused by melting of the Greenland icesheet, which might result in a reduction in thesurface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean.Another prediction suggests that a rapidincrease in global temperature could occur inthe 2600’s / 2800’s. Arctic ice could disappearall year round with the “thermohalinecirculation (the Gulf Stream) becoming veryvigorous” causing North Atlantic seas to heatby up to 8oC, accompanied by UK landtemperature increases of up to 5oC.

However, the Report notes that “This shouldnot be treated as a prediction but rather asan indication that continual increase inemissions could lead to an event of this type”.

“Only by minimising emissions can dangerousclimate change be avoided: in all except themost stringent emissions reduction scenario,Greenland ice sheet melt begins between theearly 22nd and early 23rd century”

CONCLUSION

“We have presented a sobering picture ofpotential climate change on the millennialtimescale. Whilst great uncertainties remain,our relatively conservative assumptions stillproduce the result that only by starting toreduce CO2 emissions in the very near future,and continuing to reduce them such thatthey are zero by 2200, can we avoiddangerous climate change on the millennialtimescale.”

Tipping PointsJames Le Ruez

This article touches on the potentialdisintegration of summer sea ice in theArctic. This is a scenario that iscommonly discussed as a ‘tipping point’.A tipping point is essentially a type ofextreme feedback system. It occurswhere a small change in one state mayinitially only have small effects but atsome ‘tipping point’ the system can flipand rapidly go into another state. In thecase of the Arctic ice, models suggestthat small changes in fresh water contentof the oceans could lead to rapiddisintegration of the ice pack.

There is also the existence of 'unknownunknowns' - tipping points which we notaware of. An example happened inrelation to the Antarctic ozone hole,where unexpected chemical reactionson the surfaces of ice particles lead tomuch more efficient destruction of ozonein the polar vortex than had beenexpected. This made what was anexisting concern into a much moreserious problem.

By their nature, we are not able to assesshow important any such surprises mightbe and it is impossible to rule them outentirely.

REFERENCEFor more see ‘Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale (2006).’ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK

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3.6 WHAT IMPACTS WILL CLIMATE CHANGECAUSE GLOBALLY?

FOOD, FIBRE, AND FOREST PRODUCTS

Globally, the potential for food productionis projected to increase with increases inlocal average temperature over a rangeof 1-3°C, but above this it is projected todecrease.Increases in the frequency of droughtsand floods are projected to affect localcrop production negatively, especially insubsistence sectors at low latitudes.Globally, commercial timber productivityrises modestly with climate change in theshort- to medium-term, with large regionalvariability around the global trend.Regional changes in the distribution andproduction of particular fish species areexpected due to continued warming, withadverse effects projected for aquacultureand fisheries.

COASTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW LYING AREAS

Coasts are projected to be exposed toincreasing risks, including coastal erosion,due to climate change and sea-level rise.Increasing human-induced pressures oncoastal areas will exacerbate the effect.Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress andhave low adaptive capacity. Increases insea surface temperature of about 1-3°Care projected to result in more frequentcoral bleaching events and widespreadmortality, unless there is thermaladaptation or acclimatisation by corals.Coastal wetlands including salt marshesand mangroves are projected to benegatively affected by sea-level riseespecially where they are constrained ontheir landward side, or starved ofsediment.Many millions more people are projectedto be flooded every year due to sea-levelrise by the 2080s. Those densely-

The IPCC Working Group II addresses‘Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation andMitigation’. The following excerpts are takenfrom the Group’s ‘Summary for Policy Makers’within the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.The scale and timing of impacts will vary withthe amount and timing of climate changeand, in some cases, the capacity to adapt.

FRESHWATER RESOURCES AND THEIRMANAGEMENT

Drought-affected areas are likely toincrease in extent. Heavy precipitationevents, which are very likely to increase infrequency, will augment flood risk.In the course of the century, watersupplies stored in glaciers and snow areprojected to decline, reducing wateravailability in regions supplied by meltwater. More than one-sixth of the worldpopulation currently lives in these zones.

ECOSYSTEMS

This century, the resilience of manyecosystems is likely to be exceeded by anunprecedented combination of climatechange, associated disturbances (e.g.,flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, oceanacidification), and other global changedrivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution,over-exploitation of resources).Over the course of this century, netcarbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems islikely to peak before mid-century and thenweaken or even reverse, thus amplifyingclimate change.Approximately 20-30% of plant and animalspecies assessed so far are likely to be atincreased risk of extinction if increases inglobal average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C.

James Le Ruez

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populated and low-lying areas where adaptivecapacity is relatively low, and which alreadyface other challenges such as tropical storms orlocal coastal subsidence, are especially at risk.The numbers affected will be largest in themega-deltas of Asia and Africa while smallislands are especially vulnerable.Adaptation for coasts will be more challengingin developing countries than in developedcountries, due to constraints on adaptivecapacity.

INDUSTRY, SETTLEMENT AND SOCIETY

The costs and benefits of climate change forindustry, settlement and society will vary widelyby location and scale. Overall, however, neteffects will tend to be more negative thegreater the change in climate.The most vulnerable industries, settlements andsocieties are generally those in coastal and riverflood plains, those whose economies areclosely linked with climate-sensitive resources,and those in areas prone to extreme weatherevents, especially where rapid urbanisation isoccurring.Poor communities can be especiallyvulnerable, in particular those concentrated inhigh-risk areas. They tend to have more limitedadaptive capacities, and are more dependenton climate-sensitive resources such as localwater and food supplies.Where extreme weather events become moreintense and/or more frequent, the economicand social costs of those events will increase,and these increases will be substantial in theareas most directly affected. Climate changeimpacts spread from directly impacted areasand sectors to other areas and sectors throughextensive and complex linkages.

HEALTH

Projected climate change-related exposuresare likely to affect the health status of millions ofpeople. The worst affected will be those withlow adaptive capacity and are likely to suffer

REFERENCEFor the full IPCC summary of impacts,adaptation and mitigation includinglikely impacts on specific regions see:

increases in malnutrition and consequentdisorders for example:

Increased deaths, disease and injurydue to heatwaves, floods, storms,fires and droughts;The increased burden of diarrhoealdisease;The increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higherconcentrations of ground-levelozone;The altered spatial distribution ofsome infectious disease vectors (e.g.mosquitoes).

Studies in temperate areas have shownthat climate change is projected to bringsome benefits, such as fewer deaths fromcold exposure. Overall it is expected thatthese benefits will be outweighed by thenegative health effects of risingtemperatures worldwide, especially indeveloping countries.The balance of positive and negativehealth impacts will vary from one locationto another, and will alter over time astemperatures continue to rise. Criticallyimportant will be factors that directlyshape the health of populations such aseducation, health care, public healthinitiatives, infrastructure and economicdevelopment.

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Regional Climate Forecasts

3.7 HOW DO MODELS PREDICT REGIONALCHANGE? James Le Ruez

Modelling on a regional scale is important,because local features such as topography,urbanisation and land use influence the climate.Similarly, local winds, clouds or small scaletemperature anomalies (e.g. rivers running intothe ocean cooling the local sea) can influencelarger scale systems.

As discussed earlier, global climate modelling isgenerally carried out using a grid system todetermine land, sea and physical parameters.However, the spacing between grid points isusually too big to identify small scale features likeclouds, mountains and islands. At the regionallevel climate modelling is advantageousbecause some local features can be resolvedand smaller phenomenon can be identified. Thisimproves the number of considerations withinclimate predictions so helping to improveaccuracy.

Unfortunately, high resolution global models areimpractical at the moment because theenormous number of grid points and theconsequent number of calculations require toomuch time to process. So, to include localeffects in a climate model only a small area ofthe world can be analysed – a regional climatemodel.

Concentrating on a small region of the globeintroduces a further issue, one that can behighlighted by returning to the concept of globalmodels. Conceptually, global climate modelsare relatively simple – the energy entering thesystem is equal to the energy that leaves it. Inthis case, the energy source is the Sun and weknow enough about the amount of energy itprovides to the atmosphere to assess itsinfluence on the climate accurately.

On a regional scale the energy balance is notconstant as ocean and atmospheric currentsmove energy from one region to another. Fornorthwest Europe the Gulf Stream is a simpleexample of such an ocean current. Toovercome the problem of energy transport aregional model uses input from a global modelfor conditions at the boundary of the regionenabling the movement of energy through theregion and allowing local impacts of climatechange to be studied in greater detail. Suchregional models are said to be ‘nested’ within aglobal model.

Box 1

Predicted rainfall over U.S. by a 300kmand 50km resolution model in mm/yrcompared to observations. Although the300km resolution model can be usedglobally the regional 50km modelproduces more accurate results.

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(a)

(b)

Box 2

(b) Global climate models can nowoperate at cell size of around 100kmwith roughly 40 layers in both theoceans and the atmosphere.However, this resolution is too large toconduct impact studies of a localarea, making regional modelsnecessary. For example, the reportinto the impacts of climate change forislands within the British Irish Councilused a regional model with a cell sizeof 25km square, but even at thisresolution the model cannot separateJersey and Guernsey. A single cellbetween the two islands was used torepresent the Islands instead.

The accompanying graphics (b),highlight how between one and fivecells were needed to represent thedifferent British Islands at the 25kmscale.

Sources:(a) www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/gebbie/home.html

(b) BIC Report, 2003

(a) An example of a‘nested’ climate model.This plot shows the oceantemperature at 310 mdepth where heavy hotand salty water flows outof the Mediterraneanover a sill in the straits ofGibraltar.

To concentratecomputer power on theoutflow from theMediterranean, a higherresolution model is‘nested’ within a lowerresolution model thatprovides the ‘boundaryconditions’.

Upper left, Channel Islands.Lower left, Isle of Man.

Right, Western Isles.

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/gebbie/home.html

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Regional Climate Forecasts3.8 HOW WILL JERSEY’S CLIMATE LOOK INTHE FUTURE? Andrew Casebow

The emissions of CO2 and resultant changein global average temperature for thesefour emissions scenarios calculated by theHadley Centre global climate model isshown in Box 1. Despite the immediate andrapid divergence of future emissions paths,the warming over the next 40 years or so ispredicted to be much the same. This ismainly due to the very long effectivelifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere and theinertia of the climate system. Warming overthe next few decades is already built intothe climate system from current emissionsand those over the past few decades. Onthe other hand, warming by the end of thecentury does depend on how emissionschange in the future; roughly 20C for thelowest emissions scenarios and 50C for thehighest.

LOCAL SCENARIOS

The scenarios of temperature (maximumand minimum) and precipitation (rainfall)are presented in map form. Maps areshown for all four emissions scenarios, andfor all three 30 year time periods - 2020s(2011-2040), 2050 (2041-2070), and 2080(2071-2100). The maps that follow havebeen prepared by the Hadley Centre andidentify by their box outline a grid squarecovering the land and sea area of theislands. A single 25km grid square, locatedfor the purposes of the map mid-waybetween the two islands, has been takento represent both Jersey and Guernsey.

Global average temperatures have risen byabout 0.7°C over the last 100 years, andtemperatures in Jersey have risen at a similarrate, particularly in the past few decades.

Climate models prepared by the UK MetOffice’s Hadley Centre for Climate Predictionand Research, predict a rise of between 1.5°Cand 5.8°C in the global annual averagetemperatures between 1990 and 2100. Thisrange of prediction is the result of usingmultiple model runs and take into accountvarious future scenarios. In this case, the‘SRES’ scenarios (also described in Article 3.2)are used under different terminology tospecify the level of emissions generated:

High Scenario (A1F1)Rapid economic growth, continuouslyincreasing populations peaking in mid-21st

century and a reliance on fossil fuels (businessas usual).

Medium-High Scenario (A2)More self reliance, continuously increasingpopulations, economic growth.

Medium-Low Scenario (B1)Population peaks mid-21st century, clean andefficient technologies, reductions in materialuse, social and environmental sustainability,improved equity.

Low Scenario (B2)Local solutions to sustainability, increasingpopulation but at a lower rate, less rapidtechnological change.

Box 1(Left): Emissions of carbon dioxide, 1990-2100, in the four SRES emissions scenarios.(Right): Global mean temperature change, relative to 1990, predicted by the HadleyCentre global climate model (HadCM3) for each of the four SRES emission scenarios.

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Under the medium-high scenario of climatechange the average annual temperature inthe Channel Islands will increase by 30C by2080, but this masks a seasonal change froman average of 3.80C in the summer to anaverage of 2.40C in the winter. A similarseasonal difference is likely to be seen inrainfall (precipitation) that shows a modest 4%annual reduction, but this masks a dramatic45% reduction in summer rainfall and a 24%increase in winter rainfall. These predictedtrends appear to agree with the observedseasonal rainfall trends highlighted in Article2.6.

The frequency of hot days in the ChannelIslands is expected to increase 4 or 5 fold bythe 2080’s under the medium-high emissionsscenario, with a 70-85% reduction in frosts.The number of heavy rainfall days is expectedto increase by 30-50% in winter but todecrease by 40-50% in summer.

Sea level is expected to increase by between9 and 69cm by the 2080’s; taking account ofthe different future emissions. When the

effect of land movement is added the net risevaries from 14 to 74cm. With a sea level rise of30cm the change in height of a once-in-50-years storm surge is predicted to be up to0.5m.

The North Atlantic Ocean circulation, whichincludes the gulf stream, is predicted todecrease in strength by about 20% over thenext 100 years, but not to switch off duringthat period. The temperature predictionsabove take account of the reduced heatingdue to these gulf stream changes.

USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

The main use of climate change scenarios isin carrying out assessments of the impactsthat climate change may have on socio-economic sectors such as infrastructure,agriculture, water resources, and coastal andriver flood defenses. In this way, adaptationcan be planned well in advance, so thatdamages and costs can be minimised, andperhaps some potential benefits realised.

Box 2a) Change in summer-average maximum temperature. b) Change in winter-averageminimum temperature. c) Change in summer-average precipitation. d) Change inwinter-average precipitation. (All relative to the 1961-1990 average).

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

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CHAPTER 4CHAPTER 4IMPACTS ONIMPACTS ON

THE ISLAND... THE ISLAND...

Image Credit : James Le Ruez

Climate changeover the comingcentury willhappen. ChapterThree has shownthat althoughpredictions madeby scientificinstitutions aren’tconcrete, there issignificant statisticalconfidence andscientific reasoningbacking them up.

Jersey, is a uniqueplace and as aresult will beimpacted byclimate change inunique ways. It iscrucial that we areaware of thepotential impactsso we are bestprepared to planfor them.

This chaptersummarises howdifferent aspects ofthe Island will beaffected by climatechange. It firstlyexamines theglobal (primarilyeconomic) effectsthat will cascadethrough to Jersey. Itthen goes on tostudy three furtherkey aspects ofIsland life.

From banking toinsects it appearsthat there is aclimate changeimpact that willaffect us all.

There will be no avoiding the impacts of climate

change locally. How will global change

reverberate through Island life and what changes

will be seen from the ground up?

CHAPTER 4 - IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND

Global Fallout4.1 How Will Climate Change Influence the Economy?4.2 International Climate Change Agreements4.3 What About the Developing World?

Industry4.4 Will Climate Change Affect Jersey Businesses?4.5 The Role of the Finance Sector in a Low Carbon Economy4.6 Climate Change and the Rural Economy4.7 The Future of Fisheries4.8 Tourism: Will the Industry Benefit or Suffer?

Biodiversity4.9 Regional Biodiversity4.10 Island Habitats4.11 Island Species4.12 Plankton, a Climate Change Indicator?4.13 The Effects of Climate Change on Intertidal Species

Health4.14 Human Health in a Changing Climate4.15 Insect and Climate Change: What a Pest!4.16 A Changing Climate for Animal Health4.17 Climate Change, A Growing Problem for Plant Health?

Infrastructure4.18 Sea Level, of Rising Importance?4.19 Our Future Water Supplies in a Changing Climate

5.0 Where Do We Go From Here?

CHAPTER 4 - IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND

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Energy and Development

4.1 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCETHE ECONOMY? James Le Ruez

1. Adapting to climate change

Steps must be taken to build resilience andminimise costs. This is especially relevant tothe next two to three decades and thelevel of climate change that is alreadyunavoidable. It is important to recognisethat it is the poorest countries that are mostvulnerable to climate change.

2. Stabilising greenhouse gas emissions

The impacts of climate change can besubstantially reduced if greenhouse gaslevels in the atmosphere can be stabilisedfrom current levels of 430ppm to between450 and 550 ppm CO2. Although achallenge, the costs of doing this are farbelow allowing greenhouse gasconcentrations to rise and then attemptingto deal with the consequences of this.

3. Making an international response toclimate change

All countries must take action. Developingcountries should not be required to bear the

The Stern Review was published in October2006 and represents the most thoroughthinking on the economic consequences ofclimate change. The Review was headed bySir Nicholas Stern, Head of the EconomicsService and Adviser to the UK Government

The Stern Review adopted the methodologyexplained in Box 1 overleaf. The key messagefrom the Stern review is strong and clear; itconcludes that:

‘the scientific evidence is nowoverwhelming: climate change is a seriousglobal threat, and it demands an urgentglobal response’;

‘If we don’t act [to reverse climate change],the overall costs and risks of climate changewill be equivalent to losing at least 5% ofglobal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) eachyear now and forever. If a wider range of risksand impacts is taken into account, theestimates of damage could rise to 20% ofGDP or more.’

‘In contrast, the costs of action – reducinggreenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worstimpacts of climate change – can be limitedto around 1% of global GDP each year.’

The Review states that if no action is taken toreduce emissions, the scientific evidencepoints to atmospheric greenhouse gas levelsreaching double pre-industrial levels by 2035and so committing us to a global averagetemperature increase of over 2°C. If thisoccurred it raises the likelihood to over 50%that the temperature rise would exceed 5°C.The Review believes that even moremoderate levels of future emissions will resultin ‘serious impacts on world output, humanlife and on the environment’.

Despite this alarming picture the conclusion ismore positive :

‘Although the costs of stabilising the climateare significant but manageable; delay wouldbe dangerous and much more costly’.

The Review recommends the followingaction:

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“For every £1 invested now, we cansave £5, or possibly more,

by acting now.”

Then Prime Minister Tony Blair’s commentsto the BBC on the Stern Review

full costs of action alone; mechanisms likecarbon markets can deliver finance tosupport low-carbon development.

4. Decoupling growth from greenhouse gasemissions

In particular ‘decarbonising’ the powersector by 60% by 2050. Stern concludes that‘the world does not need to choosebetween averting climate change andpromoting growth and development’.

5. Technology co-operation

Technology and innovation delivering low-carbon technologies and boosting energyefficiency must be widely shared, throughinformal or formal international co-operation.

6. Placing a social cost on carbon

In economic terms greenhouse gases are anexternality. Those generating greenhousegases do not experience the full cost to

society of their generation.

By putting an appropriate price on carbon,through taxes, trading or regulation, peoplepay the full social cost of their actions. This willencourage the switching away from high-carbon goods and services to low carbonalternatives.

A number of studies have attempted toquantify the social cost of carbon. In early2002, the UK suggested £70 per tonne ofcarbon (tC) (within a range of £35 to £140/tC)as an estimate for the cost of the globaldamage of carbon emissions.

Global mechanisms like the EU EmissionsTrading Scheme, attempt to account for thesocial costs of carbon in two ways. Targetsare set for carbon emissions but the trading ofcarbon as a commodity allows free marketsto make emission reductions in the most costefficient way. Importantly, because of theglobal nature of emissions, the schemes todeliver reductions can be located anywhere.

Source: The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, 2006.

IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND

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Box 1The Stern teamcompleted a review ofscientific literature whichdetermined temperatureincreases expected as aresult of differentconcentrations ofgreenhouse gases in theatmosphere.

Changes in temperaturewere linked to theimpacts upon differentaspects of the planetand its population (left).

The effect of theseimpacts on the globaleconomy was comparedto the cost of stabilisinggreenhouse gasemissions at differentlevels.

Hence they were able todetermine the bestcourse of action to avoidmajor future economicconsequences.


4.2 INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGEAGREEMENTS James Le Ruez

Joint Implementation (JI) - applies intransitional economies mainly covering theformer Soviet Union and Eastern EuropeClean Development Mechanism (CDM) –applies in Non-Annex I economiesInternational Emissions Trading (IET)

Both JI and CDM are “project basedmechanisms” and these involve thedevelopment and implementation ofprojects that reduce greenhouse gasemissions overseas. These projects generatecarbon credits that can be sold on thecarbon market so they both reducegreenhouse gas emissions and generate anadditional income stream for the project.

Even if all countries meet their Kyoto targets,global emissions are only expected to fall by1-2% and a number of the main contributors,most notably the USA have still not signed upto achieving these targets although the newadministration is expected to make progress.

Jersey became a signatory to the UNConvention on Climate Change in 1994 buthas no specific carbon reduction target.The Kyoto Protocol was extended to theIsland in 2006 and Jersey’s greenhouse gasemissions figures have already beenincluded within the UK’s “assigned amount”which was submitted to the EU on 15th

January 2006.

INTERNATIONAL EMISSIONS TRADING

The rationale behind emission trading is toensure that the emission reductions takeplace where the cost of the reduction is

The majority of nations have now placedcombating climate change high on thepolitical agenda accepting the need tomake cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement madeunder the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. Countriesratifying the protocol commit to reducingtheir emissions of CO2 and five othergreenhouse gases. If countries maintain orincrease emissions of these gases they canengage in emissions trading with compliantcountries. The Protocol now covers morethan 160 countries (Box 1) globally and over55% of GHG emissions.

Under Kyoto, Governments are separatedinto two overall categories:

1. Non-Annex 1 countries or developingcountries – These have no greenhouseemission reduction targets.

2. Annex 1 or developed countries – Thesehave accepted emission reduction targets.By 2008-2012, the global target is for Annex 1countries to reduce their GHG emissions by5% below their 1990 levels.

HOW DOES KYOTO WORK?

As well as making domestic emissionreductions Annex I economies can meet theirreduction targets through three“mechanisms":

Box 1Participation in theKyoto Protocol: greenindicates statesparties, yellowindicates states withratification pending,and red indicatesthose that signed butdeclined ratification ofthe treaty.

Image Credit: Wikimedia

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lowest thus lowering the overall costs ofcombating climate change. EmissionsTrading is particularly suited to the emissionsof greenhouse gases because they have thesame effect wherever they are emitted.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) iscentral to the European Union’s long-termpolicy to reduce carbon emissions and workson a “cap and trade” basis. Governmentscan regulate the total amount of emissionsproduced by setting the overall cap for thescheme. Individual companies have theflexibility of determining how and where theemissions reductions will be achieved.

EU Member States are required to setemissions limits for all installations in theircountry covered by the scheme. Eachinstallation is then allocated emissionsallowances for the particular phase inquestion. The scheme currently coverselectricity generation and the main energyintensive industries such as refineries, paper,and heavy manufacturing. If a companyemits more than their allowance they canmeet their limit by purchasing allowancesfrom the market. This provides revenue forCDM projects. Alternatively, if a companyemits less than its allocation, they can sell thesurplus allowances.

Emissions trading gives companies theflexibility to meet emission reduction targetsaccording to their own strategy (Box 2).Essentially, businesses can choose to reduce

emissions on site or buy surplus allowancesfrom other companies. The environmentaloutcome is not affected because the amountof allowances allocated is fixed. However, byallowing participants the flexibility to tradeallowances, the overall emissions reductionsare achieved in the most cost-effective waypossible.

IMPACTS IN JERSEY

Jersey is not involved in the EU ETS. Althougha signatory to the Kyoto Protocol the lack ofan emissions target means that at presentthere is no ‘cap’ for the Island. Furthermore,the majority of island businesses are notsufficiently large emitters to fall under such ascheme.

The most likely potential relevance of thescheme to Jersey is for companies trading incarbon credits.

Box 2High emitters of carbon can purchase credits on the carbon market to compensate fortheir pollution of the atmosphere. Alternatively, they may alter their operations, forinstance by installing new technology, to reduce their emissions to the specified ‘cap’. Theprofits from selling credits can be invested into projects approved by the United Nations aspart of the Clean Development Mechanism, such as this wind farm in the Netherlands.


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4.3 IMPACTS ON THE DEVELOPING WORLD

While the world’s poor walk the Earth witha light carbon footprint they are bearingthe brunt of unsustainable managementof our global resources.

In rich countries, coping with climatechange to date has largely been a matterof adjusting thermostats, dealing withlonger, hotter summers, and observingseasonal shifts. Cities like London and LosAngeles may face flooding risks as sealevels rise, but their inhabitants areprotected by elaborate flood defencesystems.

By contrast, when global warmingchanges weather patterns in the Horn ofAfrica, it means that crops fail and peoplego hungry, or that women and young girlsspend more hours collecting water. And,whatever the future risks facing cities inthe rich world, today the real climatechange vulnerabilities linked to storms andfloods are to be found in ruralcommunities in the great river deltas of theGanges, the Mekong and the Nile, and insprawling urban slums.

There are no obvious historical analogiesfor the urgency of the climate changeproblem. Stockpiles of nuclear weaponshave threatened societies but theappreciation that mass destruction wouldensue has thus far avoided either sideacting. Climate change, in contrast, is asituation where if nobody acts we aretaking a guaranteed route to a furtherbuild-up greenhouse gases, and tomutually assured destruction of humandevelopment potential.

BALANCING THE PLAYING FIELD

Emitting one tonne of CO2 in Jersey hasthe same effect as emitting one tonne ofCO2 anywhere in the world. However, the

Exposure to the impacts of climate change isonly forecast to get worse in the near future.The world is committed to a certain degree ofclimate change and adaptation to suchimpacts will prove difficult for poor nations foryears to come.

Looking to the future we see a danger thatprogress built up over generations to cutextreme poverty, improve health, nutrition andeducation could be reversed as conditionsbecome increasingly difficult for basic survival.The majority of the world’s one billion poorpeople depend on agriculture for theirlivelihoods, yet, it is the human enterprise mostsusceptible to climate change (Box 1).

James Le Ruez

“Across developing countries, millions of the world’s poorest people are already being forcedto cope with the impacts of climate change. These impacts do not register as apocalyptic

events in the full glare of world media attention. They go unnoticed in financial markets and inthe measurement of world gross domestic product (GDP). But increased exposure to drought,

to more intense storms, to floods and environmental stress is holding back the efforts of theworld’s poor to build a better life for themselves and their children.”

United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008

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Asia

Box 1Change in Agricultural outputpotential (2080s as % of 2000 potentialChange in agricultural potential is onlypositive for industrial countries wheretechnology and science will allowadaptation to negate the impacts ofclimate change.

Industrialcountries

World

Developingcountries

Middle East andNorth Africa

Latin America

Africa

impacts of one tonne of CO2 are not thesame in Jersey as they are elsewhere.However, we argue that the Island have anobligation to ensure that globally we do notlook back in 50, 100 or 500 years and wonderwhy we did not take strong enough action.As the 2007/2008 Human DevelopmentReport states:

“It is our generation that will leave a legacyeither as those that took action or those whofailed.”

Some may argue that globally our Island’semissions are negligible, but the counterviewis ‘where is the point where emissions changefrom being insignificant to significant?’ Wehave a responsibility to set an example thatwill be followed by others.

We cannot deny developing countries atechnological and economical revolutionthat will provide their citizens with better lives.It is through following the western world’sexample that developing countries are using‘dirty’ fuels such as coal and oil.

Tools such as the Clean DevelopmentMechanism and Emissions Trading provide aninfrastructure by which countries will be ableto develop without reliance upon datedtechnology. A global effort is required toensure that these mechanisms fulfil theirpotential and ensure a better life for futuregenerations.

Box 2This graphic reveals the largedifference in per capitaemissions between developedand non-developed nations.

REFERENCESourced from the UN Human

Development Report 2007/2008.For the full report go to:http://hdr.undp.org/en/


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Image credit:http://www.unconditionalcompassion.com/sub/

JerseySidebySide.htm

http://hdr.undp.org/en/

http://www.unconditionalcompassion.com/sub/

Local Industry

4.4 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTJERSEY BUSINESSES? The ECO-ACTIVE Business Team

for ‘green’ alternatives in all business sectorswhich provides opportunities fordiversification and expansion.

Increased operational efficiency:

Increasing operational efficiency by usingfewer raw materials and lowering overheadsby reducing electricity and waste disposalbills boosts company profitability. Thisprinciple can be applied to all aspects of abusiness. Furthermore there is an increasingrecognition that items once considered tobe ‘rubbish’ can be used for other purposes.There is potential to reduce disposal and rawmaterial costs and even create newrevenue streams.

Supply chain and markets :

Procurement policies are increasinglyincorporating environmental as well asfinancial costs. Through improving aproduct’s environmental performance abusiness can gain a competitive advantage.Retailers, such as Marks and Spencer undertheir ‘Plan A’ initiative, demand strictenvironmental standards of their suppliers.Local growers that can meet this standardwill have access to a market that theircompetitors may not.

CHALLENGES

Energy price increases:

All businesses rely on energy even if only at aminimum through heating and electricityconsumption and transportation. In a globalmarket of increasing energy costs Jersey isvulnerable since it is reliant on petroleumproducts (70% of the total).

In addition the availability of energy atpredictable and affordable prices arecritical for businesses to plan ahead andprice accordingly. Steep increases in oilprices over the summer and autumn of 2008bought the effects of price spikes sharplyinto focus.

Energy generation is a significant contributorto climate change and resources ofhydrocarbon fuels are finite all of whichpoints to recent price fluctuations being the

All businesses will be affected directly orindirectly by climate change and althoughthe media focuses on the negatives it’s notall doom and gloom. Climate change alsopresents opportunities that businesses cantake advantage of.

The challenges and opportunities arisingfrom predicted climate change impacts willbe specific to individual businesses and weconsider some of them here.

OPPORTUNITIES

New technologies and services :

Internationally government policies requireincreased standards and in particularcompliance with emission reduction targets.The main opportunities in the UK areconsidered to be within meeting tighterbuilding standards, supply of biofuels,energy efficiency products and generationof renewable electricity.

Consumer choice:

people are increasingly aware of climatechange and conscious of the power of theirpurchasing decisions. For example, the Co-Op identified that 51% of British peoplechose a product or service based upon aresponsible reputation. There is a demand

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beginning of a longer-term trend. By takingmeasures to reduce energy use now,companies can make significant savings ontheir energy bills and gain a competitiveadvantage.

New Regulations:

With agreements like the Kyoto Protocol inplace Jersey has an internationalcommitment to reduce its greenhouse gasemissions. Although voluntary measures willplay a role, regulations may need beintroduced to ensure compliance. Forexample the proposed tightening of thestandards on new buildings to ensure highestthermal performance through more stringentBuilding Bye-Laws. In this case, althoughinitially presenting challenges to architectsand builders, the occupier will ultimatelybenefit from a higher quality more energyefficient property with lower running costs .

Physical Vulnerability:

Over the longer term, more severe weatherpatterns such as increasingly intense summerheat waves and winter storms as well as risingsea levels could have an impact ontransportation and other infrastructure. Thiscould have numerous effects on a businessnetwork, including an increase to insurancepremiums due to increasing claims fromimpacts such as flooding.

It is no coincidence that more has beenwritten here about the challenges faced bybusinesses rather than the opportunities.Being aware and prepared for the potentialimpacts of climate change is the crucial firststep businessescan take.

In light of this the Environment Departmenthas developed the Eco-Active accreditationscheme that can help prepare businesses forthe potential impacts while increasingprofitability.


ECO-ACTIVE BUSINESS

What is ECO-ACTIVE BUSINESS (EAB)?

EAB is a free-to-implement schemethat provides a framework forbusinesses identify and reduce theirimpact upon the environment. TheEAB model has been tailored to suitthe needs of local businesses. It wasdeveloped and implemented inpartnership with Standard Chartered,the Gerard le Claire EnvironmentalTrust, the Economic DevelopmentDepartment and the Planning andEnvironment Department with the aimof ‘putting the environment at theheart of local businesses’.

What does EAB involve?

EAB is not about asking the impossible.Every business has an impact uponthe environment and this canreduced through incrementalstructured improvement. The schemeis successful because it is designed tooperate and be led from within thebusiness itself. This allows organisationsto chose the appropriate actions andapproaches for their organisationwhilst drawing upon the expertise ofthe EAB team and the Planning andEnvironment Department.

There are three levels to the schemewith the highest level - ’Leader’ Statusequivalent to nationally acceptedEnvironmental Management Systems.

What are the benefits?

EAB has many benefits including:

Increasing efficiency;Reducing costs;Ensuring legal compliance and;Improving company reputation.

Where can I find out more?

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http://www.gov.je/ecoactivebusiness

http://www.gov.je/ecoactivebusiness

Local Industry

The ECO-ACTIVE Business Team

CARBON DISCLOSURE & ACCOUNTABILITY

Investors are increasingly putting pressureon banks to take responsibility for theenvironmental impact of their investmentprojects. Banks are evaluating their carbonexposure, disclosing their carbon footprintand putting together action plans toprogressively reduce this footprint.

For example the World Bank has committedto tracking the carbon footprint of its coredevelopments in the energy and transportsectors. The Bank of America hascommitted to a 7% reduction in indirectemissions within their energy and utilityportfolio.

CREDIT RISK

In the current climate no financial institutioncan afford to ignore risk. Legislation tomitigate climate change and theincreasing cost of carbon may exposeclients to new risks and potentially evenheighten the possibility of default.

If the bank incorporates a carbondimension in credit decision-making abank’s loan book can be more resilient.

MARKET RISK

As climate change drives the full cost ofcarbon to become increasinglyincorporated into the market ‘carboninflation’ will become a new element inprice setting especially in the energysector. In addition, as the physical impactsof climate change intensify, the prices forkey commodities such as food and watermay increase thereby putting an upwardpressure on interest rates.

SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENTS

Banks have substantial resources at theirdisposal that can be used to supportsustainable projects. They therefore have akey role to play in the development of lowcarbon technologies. For example, in 2008,HSBC committed £100 million of funding forrenewable generating capacity inpartnership with the Carbon Trust.

Jersey is an established international financialcentre with nearly 50 banks as well as some175 licensed trust and companyadministrators, over 100 investmentmanagers, stockbrokers, fund managers,leading international accountancy firms andsome of the biggest names in the offshorelegal world. In 2006 it was estimated that£188 billion was held in Island accounts withthe sector employing some 12,000 staff.

Banking is the primary focus of this article butmany of the issues discussed will cascadeinto the ‘umbrella’ of fiduciary services.

It is not envisaged that there will be the samesort of direct local impacts of climatechange on the banking sector in the sameway as the agriculture or tourism industries.For example, drought will not directly impacton financial products and services to thesame extent as it would on the success of alocal crop.

However, the indirect impacts of climatechange and the resulting transition to a lowcarbon economy could fundamentallychange how banks do business in the future.

This article draws upon a revealing study byEntec in 2007 into the impact of the ‘carboneconomy’ on banking.

REFERENCESourced from Entec.

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4.5 THE IMPACT OF A LOW CARBON ECONOMYON THE FINANCE SECTOR

Image credit: www.Jersey.com

http://www.jersey.com

COMMERCIAL BANKING

In a similar way the decision making processinvolved in commercial loans can assist thegrowth of low carbon industries. Banks needto reappraise their appetite for risk in carbonintensive sectors (e.g. cement, mining, oil,power generation, and transport) and assisttheir clients in reducing this risk throughreducing the carbon intensity of corporatebusiness.

INVESTMENT BANKING

Climate change will impact on the value ofinvestments, assets and commodities. Theability to be able to analyse climate changerisks and opportunities over the short andlong term as we shift to a low carboneconomy is essential. For example, how willa portfolio’s value by affected by risingcarbon costs and are there opportunities forinvestment in low carbon technology?

MARKETING & REPUTATION

Client and employee expectations of goodcorporate governance are increasing andignorance of climate change impacts is nolonger accepted.

Over the last year or so the reputation of theglobal finance industry has taken a battering.Positive early action in the above areas willhelp in rebuilding reputations. Inaction orpoor decision-making will cause furtherdamage.

This exposure is not some distant prospect,


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but has already started to materialise. Forexample, a consortium of leadingenvironmental groups have lobbied globalfinancial corporations, some with branches inthe Island, to stop financing the expansion ofcoal-fired power stations around the world.

A POSITIVE WAY FORWARD

The transition to a low carbon economy willhave numerous repercussions to the financesector. Climate change providesopportunities for the finance industry to gain acompetitive advantage through taking earlyaction. Many forward thinking Corporateshave already demonstrated theircommitment for example, signing up to the‘equator principles’ which ensure thatprojects receiving finance are sound bothethically and environmentally.

Box 1 illustrates the results of a survey ofbusiness leaders, with 45% of those surveyedstrongly agree that climate changerepresents business opportunities for theircompanies.

Where should the banking sector start?

Investigate and understand where marketopportunities lie in a low carbon economy.Understand and measure the bank’s widercarbon footprint, including products,services and investments.As a sector work towards a standardisedmethod for carbon reporting.Introduce carbon considerations into thedecision making process.

Box 1

Results of an opinion survey of over1,000 business leaders taken at ThePrince of Wales May Day BusinessSummit on Climate Change, May 2007.

Dark blue bars - ’Climate changepresents a considerable business RISKfor my company

Light blue bars - ‘ Climate changerepresents a considerable businessOPPORTUNITY’ for my company’

Don’tknow / no

opinion

Disagreestrongly

Disagree Agree Agreestrongly

Local Industry

4.6 CLIMATE CHANGE & THE RURALECONOMY John Jackson and Iain Norris

CROPPING

Yields may be expected to increase as aresult of higher atmospheric CO2

concentrations, rainfall and temperatures inthe early part of the year. Converselyhigher temperatures and lower rainfall inthe summer may well reduce yields makingcertain crops uneconomic. For example,Jersey Royal potatoes for export are usuallyplanted between January and March andharvested after a 12 week growing period.Reduced frosts in winter may mean thatpotatoes could be grown earlier extendingthe high priced early market period.

Competition from countries such as Egypt,Canary Islands and Madeira could also bereduced due to increased temperaturesand reduced rainfall in these areas.

The warmer weather in Jersey may meanthat the expensive plastic crop covers usedin spring become unnecessary so reducingcosts.

The longer growing season could seeincreased crop diversification with theintroduction of crops such as grapes, olives,grain maize, kiwis, herbs, sweet potatoesand pharmaceutical crops such as borage.These provide new opportunities to expandthe type and volume of crops produced forlocal retailers and the UK market.

Increased awareness of climate changemay well lead to a reduction in consumerdemand for imported foodstuffs fromaround the world so increasing demand for

We have seen how under the IPCC mediumand high emissions scenarios the ChannelIslands will see a 3ºC increase in averagetemperatures by 2080. As a result Jersey mayexpect that the frequency of hot days insummer will be 4 to 5 times greater and inwinter there will be an almost total absenceof frost. A 45% reduction in summer rainfall iscontrasted with 24% increase in winterrainfall.

Climate change and green house gasemission mitigation will be one of the greatestchallenges to the agricultural industry in the21st century. The following article exploreshow these challenges will impact on Jersey’sagricultural industry.

GROWING SEASON

The growing season is usually defined aswhen the soil temperature is over 5ºC. Inpractice Jersey’s soil temperature only fallsbelow 5ºC on a very few occasions eachwinter allowing crops to grow slowly duringthe autumn and winter period.

Climate change will increase soiltemperatures throughout the year enhancingcrop growth in the warm, wet winters andreducing crop growth in the dry hot summerswhen water availability is the limiting factor.

Such changes will challenge currenthusbandry practices in the Island, presentingnew problems and opportunities. Theagricultural industry must have to respondusing sustainable husbandry techniques,together with a flexible approach, in order toensure a viable future.

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a wide range of locally grown products.

PESTS & DISEASE

Warmer weather could result in an increasein pests and diseases in the Island. Forexample Potato Blight thrives in warmer,wetter conditions. The Colorado Beetle(shown above) is currently found on theFrench mainland and could become agreater threat if its geographical rangemoves north (see also Article 4.15).

Pesticides, whose manufacture depends onoil, are likely to become more expensive andless available accentuating crop healthproblems.

HUSBANDRY

Inorganic fertiliser production generatesnitrous oxide emissions (a potent greenhousegas) and if restrictions are placed onproduction they could becomeuneconomically priced. This could result in agreater reliance on animal manures,recycled organic fertilisers and less intensivehusbandry methods.

Decreased summer precipitation could leadto a lack of water availability for cropirrigation or force farmers to constructexpensive reservoirs to preserve the excessrainfall in winter.

Increased winter rainfall may result in anincrease in soil erosion from the cotils used forearly crops making their cultivation

environmental unacceptable.

The increasing price of fuel could limit the useof cultivation techniques dependent on largediesel tractors. These may have to bereplaced by minimal cultivation techniqueswhich would also assist in soil moistureretention.

Farmers may have to consider producing theirown renewable fuels such as bio diesel fromcereal crops, biogas from anaerobicdigestion and heating fuel from long termcoppicing.

Advances in science may well mitigate someof the problems caused by climate change.For example, plant breeding companies aredeveloping new varieties of crops which aremore efficient at using nitrogen from soilreserves thus reducing their need for fertilisers.In addition, drought resistant plants are beingdeveloped with the ability to reduce waterloss by restricting the opening of the leafstomata through which water evaporates.

However, the use of these techniques couldreduce yields and are usually the intellectualproperty of multinational companies which islikely to result in increased production costs.The development of such crops by the use ofgene transfer (GM crops) is likely. This couldraise the issue of market resistance within theEU due to actual or perceived environmentalproblems.


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Local Industry

4.6 CONTINUED...

effects on livestock husbandry. Very hotsummer days above 25ºC will result in dairycows reaching their higher criticaltemperature. The cow’s response will be toreduce feed intake, drink more water andseek shelter in order to reduce bodytemperature.

Dairy farmers may have to bring the cowsinto shaded housing to avoid the hottestpart of summer days, provide sprays of waterto cool the animals down and also provideconserved feeds to replace grazed grass. Ifcurrent winter housing designs are notimproved, cattle could begin to overheat inwinter due to density of stocking andinadequate ventilation.

White skin pigs kept outside will increasinglysuffer from sun burn. Outdoor pig productionmay not even be possible in the later part ofthe 21st century unless pigs are housedappropriately, provided with water sprays ordifferent coloured pigs are kept outside withwallows where they can cool off and coverthemselves in a mud sunscreen.

Historically, sheep have been developed toretain their wool. For future production

LIVESTOCK

The iconic Jersey cow has been exported tomany countries around the world with hotterand drier climates than Jersey and hasproved her ability to produce high qualitymilk on an economic basis. This does notmean that the dairy industry will be immuneto the effects of climate change.

The advantages of warmer growingconditions will promote grass growthextending the grazing season and reducingthe expense the dairy industry faces fromimported compound feeds.

Livestock farmers will have the opportunity togrow a greater range of feed crops such as,soya beans, grain maize and Lucerne whichwill reduce their dependence on costlyimported feeds. Our current cold wintershave resulted in livestock having to behoused in enclosed buildings.

Warmer winters and hot summers will result ina need for open, airy buildings with reducedspecifications and potentially lowerconstruction costs.

Climate change will also have adverse

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systems there will be a need for short fleecedanimals that can keep cool and because(the value and use of wool is reducing).

Wetter winters and a longer growing seasonwill mean that farmers will need to grazegrass crops when the soil is wet. This willincrease the need for good quality tracks toget the animals to and from the grazingfields.

In order to gain the maximum benefit fromgrazed grass their may be a need torestructure the current dispersed fields intoeasily accessed consolidated blocks of land.In addition, the rapid spread of the Bluetongue virus across Europe is a goodindication of how pests and diseasescurrently unknown in Jersey could threatenthe welfare of our livestock.

CONCLUSION

It is clear that in order to respond to thechallenges of climate change Jersey willrequire a modern, efficient and profitableagricultural industry able to implement thechanges necessary for a sustainable future.The industry will need to employ moderntechnology and not be bound by customand tradition. It will need to use imported oilbased products more efficiently and reduce

their overall use by generating more of theirenergy needs from their own resources.

New crops will be seen in the Island and newmethods of husbandry will have to bedeveloped for arable crops and livestock.Servicing the needs of local consumers andproducing environmentally friendly productsto provide profits for reinvestment in newtechnology will be a key part of a successfulstrategy in response to the imperatives ofclimate change.


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Local Industry

4.7 THE FUTURE OF FISHERIESSimon Bossy and Andrew Casebow

Local observations mirror these trends with amarked increase in the abundance of bass(warm water species) in recent years with adecrease in catch of cod (a cold waterspecies). However, as well as direct impactson the types of fish that will be caught, therewill also be migration of less commercialspecies. As a result of their low commercialvalue it will be more difficult to monitor andassess the populations of such species. Forinstance, the Marine Climate ChangeImpacts Partnership (MarClim) identify thatnon-native marine organisms such asjapweed and Chinese mitten crab arespreading and becoming established in UKwaters.

Furthermore, changes to the oceanicenvironment including temperature, salinityand acidity may create a marineenvironment more susceptible to planktonblooms and jellyfish swarms.

INDIRECT CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS

The direct impact of climate change onmarine species comes from the warmeroceanic temperature and salinity patterns.

Chapter 1 highlighted the changes to thelocal marine climate that have beenobserved over the last seventy years at StHelier Harbour. At a regional level, surfacetemperatures of the North Atlantic have risenby around 1°C in the last thirty years and thisvariation is also detected in the offshorewaters of the English Channel (see Box 1). Theimpact of climate change upon plankton willbe highlighted in Article 4.12.

The Fisheries and Marine Resources Section isresponsible for protecting and ensuring thesustainable use of the Island’s marineresources whilst maximising the overall benefitsto the people of Jersey. A changing climatewill result in new challenges as the ecosystemsthat inhabit our local waters change. As withall ecosystems it is important to separate thelong term influence of climate from regionaland local influences (such as over-fishing,eutrophication, sea defences and pollution).

The Channel Islands are situated on theconvergence of Boreal (cold temperature)and Lusitanian (warm temperature) marinebio-geographical regions. The overlap ofthese regions promotes increased speciesrichness in our waters. However, being at aboundary of two different water types meansthat changes in marine climate are having anoticeable impact. Coldwater species at theirsouthern limit are likely to lose their ‘climatespace’ and migrate northwards astemperatures increase. Other, warm water,species are likely to spread into island watersfrom France or further south.

Such migration is possible due to the naturalmobility of fish. Regional displacement ofspecies is now well documented and hasbeen occurring for many years. For example,Red mullet and sea bass used to be rare Northof the English Channel. In 1985 North Seacatches of these species were 10 and 31tonnes respectively but by 2005 these specieshad become commercially viable with catchof 700 and 558 tonnes respectively. Althoughsuch changes may not necessarily be definedas negative impacts (such movements mayeven create new fishing opportunities) thelong term influence of such displacementupon fragile ecosystems are not yet fullyunderstood. Source: NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, USA,

Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

Box 1Reanalysis data suggests there has beena 0.6 - 0.8°C rise in temperature perdecade between 1981 and 2000 in theBay of Granville.

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http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

There are potentially many more indirecteffects, some of which may be applicable tolocal fisheries:

Fluvial impacts: Jersey’s location within the bayof Granville means it is subject to outflow frommany French estuaries. As a result of the freshwater input the local habitat is of lower salinity inthe south east which increases away from theFrench coast. Drier summers will reduce thefreshwater input from French rivers alteringsalinity patterns. Furthermore, the nutrientscontained in such outflows will also decrease.

Flushing: Heavy rainfall events in winter withoutadequate drainage improvements will increaseflushing from the land. Inter-tidal species maybe impacted by the contents of such flushing.For example, shell fish farms may becontaminated if diseases, such as E.coli, arewashed onto beaches from fields containinganimal waste.

Inter-tidal exposure: Jersey has a significantnumber of fish farms that are inter-tidal, i.e.exposed to the air or the sea dependant on thetidal height. Extreme heat due to Increasedmaximum temperatures cause death of suchshellfish (especially juveniles) when exposed atlow water.

Non-marine species: Changes in the climate willintroduce different species to the land, birds arean obvious example due to their mobility. Suchspecies may be more or less predatory ofmarine species impacting upon the ecosystembalance.

Sea defences: Potentially improvements to seadefences will be required. These can impactupon the profiles of beaches and near-shorecurrents changing habitats. Furthermore, theymay be seen as an opportunity for rocky shorespecies to colonise new habitats.

Seaweed Blooms: The unattractive sight andodours caused by decomposing seaweedalready occur locally and are of additionalconcern during the tourist season. Althoughrecent blooms are not attributed to climatechange alterations in oceanic properties maymake seaweed or macro-algal blooms morecommon. As well as being a nuisance seaweedis important in the local eco-system as itsdecomposition provides nutrients to beachfauna.


Box 2TOP TO BOTTOM: Algal blooms like thisone off the south west UK may becomemore common with a changing marineclimate as may blooms of jellyfish. Bassis a delicacy we are likely to see moreof locally in the future and could heatwaves or run-off from fields impact uponthe Island’s oyster farms? Finally, will sealettuce blooms like this at St Aubinreduce or increase in the futureclimate?

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Local Industry

4.8 TOURISM: WILL THE INDUSTRY BENEFITOR SUFFER? Jersey Tourism

A beautiful, natural environment and a goodclimate are two key factors in the appeal ofany holiday destination.

Jersey is no different and climate change willundoubtedly impact on the island and thenature of its long-established tourism industry.

TOURISM IN EUROPE

As a result of climate change, south Europeanholiday hotspots are predicted to seeincreases in temperature and increasing spellsof uncomfortably hot and humid conditionswith heat waves of over 40°C. This may lead toa greater risk of fire and malaria-bearingmosquitoes.

In a changing climate the weather conditionsin northern Europe may become moreappealing to tourists than the Mediterraneanand a revival of northern European resortscould ensue.

LOCAL EFFECTS

Below we examine some potential impacts onthe industry and highlight their possibleconsequences.

Warmer Year-Round Climate

Climate models predict that the local climatewill become more Mediterranean in feel overthe next 100 years. The British Irish Councilscenarios support this conclusion suggestingthat Jersey’s average maximum temperaturein the summer will rise by 1°C by 2020, 2-3°C by2050 and 3-5°C by the 2080’s. Meteorologicalrecords show that maximum summertemperatures observed through the early 21st

Century hover around the 28-32°C mark.Forecasted rises will not, unlike theMediterranean, result in uncomfortably hottemperatures for the next 50 years or so.

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Although temperature extremes will have animpact.

Consequences: New Markets

At present, Jersey’s primary audience falls intothe 45+ age category and comprises mainlycouples from the UK who will take a short breakin the island staying for 4 or 5 days. We knowthat Jersey has a beautiful environment but awarmer, year round, climate may attract newvisitors and encourage those visitors to stay forlonger.

In addition, it could increase the Island’sappeal to the family market and reducereliance upon wet weather facilities that arecurrently in short supply. Visitors are increasinglyseeking active pursuits on their holidays and amore favourable climate will allow the alreadyestablished marine leisure industry to grow.

Demonstrating an Island Commitment toSustainable Tourism

The consumption of energy and water inholiday resorts and large hotels around theworld can put substantial pressure on localresources and ecosystems. Consequently,conscientious travellers are becoming moreselective about the destinations they chooseand avoiding long-haul flights in order tominimise carbon emissions.

In Jersey, the majority of hotels and attractionsare smaller and the infrastructure more able toservice their needs and so their impacts arearguably less than elsewhere. Neverthelessthere are clear financial and environmentalbenefits resulting from more efficient resource

management. These pressures will increasein the future when we consider the increasedneed for air conditioning and refrigeration ina hotter summer climate. ImplementingEnvironmental Management Systems,provides a framework for achieving theseobjectives and the Green Tourism and ECO-ACTIVE Business schemes provide localguidance for the sector and uptake hasbeen encouraging and is expected to grow.

Consequences : Holidaying Closer to Homeand Increased Visitor Numbers

Transportation links are key to the success ofany tourism destination yet make a majorcontribution to global greenhouse gasemissions. The price of holidays is likely toincrease in the future as fuel prices rise andthe effects of global carbon tradingmechanisms effect in particular the aviationindustry.

Increasing costs of transportation are likely toreduce the demand for long hauldestinations. This could result in Jerseybecoming a more appealing destinationbecause of its proximity to the UK and Europeparticularly if Jersey can effectivelycommunicate a commitment to sustainabletourism to the marketplace.

In 2006, 73% of visitors traveled to Jersey byair. As a short-haul destination the impacts ofglobal actions to reduce air travel andincreasing fuel costs are likely to be less of adeterrent than for long haul destinations. Seatravel and the proximity to Europe and its railnetwork are additional advantages.

Degradation of Popular Tourist Destinations

Certain popular global visitor destinations arelikely to be adversely affected by climate

change, such as the impact of increasing sealevels in Florida and the Maldives. Extremeweather such as tornadoes, floods anddrought will have an adverse impact even ifseasonal or one off occurrences. This cantake time to recover from, particularly whereresorts and other tourism infrastructure haveto be rebuilt. Other effects in developingnations such as food and water shortagescan destabilise the country. In addition, theremay be increased health risks such asmalaria.

Consequences: Local Degradation?

Jersey will not escape the effects of climatechange. Local wildlife and flora may sufferand changes in the marine climate couldimpact on marine life.

However, if we are able to rise to thechallenges presented by climate changeJersey could be in a strong position tomitigate and adapt to such change. As aresult, the Island has the opportunity remain asafe and appealing tourist destination formany years to come and may even benefitfrom the decreasing popularity of otherdestinations.

Tourism is a global business and the impact onthe local industry cannot be seen in isolation.In the long term, climate change will result indifferent impacts on different visitordestinations. There will be significant changeto the way visitors travel and use energy ascosts increase and taxes are introduced.

However, in the short term, we would expectJersey’s climate and natural beauty to remainan attractive proposition for visitors and to seethe continued development of thisestablished industry and its positive effect indiversifying the local economy.


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Box 1Active, outdoor pursuitslike walking and kayakingmay become important toJersey’s appeal as a touristdestination in the future.



Biodiversity4.9 CLIMATE CHANGE & REGIONALBIODIVERSITY Mike Freeman

hydrology, soil pH, slope or aspect andcommunity interactions will have a strongbearing on how plants will react to climatechange.

Unfortunately our knowledge of these issuesis very limited. Although one of the upsidesof climate change might be that recordingand analysis of the effects of the changeswill provide valuable information, we shouldnot forget that we are carrying out anexperiment whose outcome we do notknow.

JERSEY’S UNIQUE LOCATION

Geographically the Island is interestinglyplaced. It lies on the boundary between theBoreal (cold temperature) and Lusitanian(warm temperature) climatic zones. Althoughpolitically we are close to the UK, in naturalhistory terms the Island has much more incommon with the Europe. When the sea levelrose after the last ice age Jersey was the lastchannel island to retain a land bridgeconnection with the mainland which meantthat many species were able to colonise.

The factors that enable plants to grow inparticular areas are complicated, but one ofthe major factors is climate. The concept ofsuitable climate space has been used in theBiodiversity Requires Adaptation in NorthwestEurope under a CHanging climate (BRANCH)project. Funded by the EU the projectinvestigated the potential impacts of climatechange on a range of species.

These projections do not deal with otherimportant environmental influences such asthe local or micro-climate, which maycontribute greatly to the survival ability ofspecies. For example in Jersey, the flora ofthe north coast heaths is markedly differentfrom the south west heaths, a function ofaspect and slope rather than climate.

WHY WILL ONE SPECIES BE AFFECTED MORETHAN ANOTHER?

A very important factor is the way individualspecies grow and survive.

The study of the reason why a particularplant species grows in one place and not inanother is called autecology. Records fromautecological studies help us to understandhow plants will react to a changing climate.For example the type of roots, flowering andsymbiotic relationships with other speciesmay all play important roles.

In a particular habitat certain factors favoura particular species; for example altitude,

We are already noticing the impacts of climate change in Jersey. But what islikely to happen in the longer term as a result of predicted climate shifts, and

what, if anything should we try to do about it?

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Continuing research funding is essential. Byrecording change in species distribution andthe corresponding change in habitats we arebetter able to understand the underlyingprocesses. The more we understandecological processes, the better equippedwe will be to ameliorate the undesirableeffects of climate change.

The potential suitable climate space mapscome with a warning; they only deal withclimate and where there could be suitableclimate conditions. They provide anindication of the degree of change whichmay occur but do not cover the otherfactors which may influence the distributionof species, including the ability of species tomove into new climate space. The followingarticles attempt to outline the potentialeffects of climate change without over-interpreting the projections in the maps.

Box 1An iconic species of Jersey, the agile frog, Rana dalmatina. Changes in suitable climatespace are not a potential threat to the species directly.

Pollution through agricultural chemicals and low water levels during the breeding periodare of concern. Increased flushing of agricultural chemicals during heavy precipitationevents may become more common as could low breeding levels during periods ofdrought.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Maps courtesy of the Biodiversity Re-quires Adaptation in NorthwestEurope under a Changing ClimateProject and Berry, P.M.

For more information see: http://branchproject.org/.

Many thanks to Dr Pam Berry of theEnvironmental Change Institute, Uni-versity of Oxford for her contributionto articles 4.9, 4.10 and 4.11.


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Biodiversity

4.10 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE ALTER THEISLAND’S HABITATS?

COASTAL HEATHLAND

Species such as blackberry and hawthornmay struggle as climate change progressesto 2080. Very broadly it is predicted thatthe suitable climate space of species withpresent distribution on the French andSpanish Atlantic coast will move north andwestward. This includes such favourites ashoneysuckle and blackberry and evenErica cinerea (bell heather) and Callunavulgaris may be negatively affected overthe long term. Molinia may lose suitableclimate space and all wet habitats will beunder pressure in summer due to lack ofrainfall.

WET MEADOW

Changes in the seasonality of heavy rainfallare likely to affect the water regime of wetmeadows mainly found at the base ofJersey’s steep-sided inland valleys. By 2100,there is expected to be up to 50% lessprecipitation in the summer, and up to 30%more in the winter. Combined with theincreases in extraction for agriculture andindustry, low summer water levels mayaffect the wet-loving plants and associatedinsect and animal species.

Jersey’s Biodiversity Strategy identifies twopriority terrestrial habitats - coastal heathlandand sand dune. Four other habitats - wetmeadow, woodland, marsh and walls andbanques - are identified as being importantin a local context (Box 1).

Although no firm predictions can be made, itcan be deduced from the scientific literatureand from observed changes in recent times,how climate change is likely to impact uponthe Island’s habitats. The following sectionsexamine these potential consequences.

SAND DUNES

Predicted changes in sea level and thethreat of storm surges will cause increasederosion. This will result in some threat tonearly all of the species found in Jersey’sinternationally valuable sand dunes.

Some specific plants, such as the early purpleorchid, may find things difficult when theconditions described under the 2080 scenarioare reached. However, plants like sea hollywhich thrive in dry hot coastal conditionsseem unlikely to change very much.

Box 1The SoJ Biodiversity Strategy identifies sand dune and wet meadow as the ‘priority’terrestrial habitats with the other four non-tidal habitats designated as ‘important’.

Mike Freeman

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The important service provided by wetmeadows in times of heavy winter rainfall is toprovide attenuation of waterflow and allowrecharge of aquifers, storing water for thedrier summers. Although recreatingtraditional meadow management is achallenge, it would be far better to allowreversion to willow carr and wet woodlandthan to continue the current practice ofdraining and culverting streams in thesemeadows, in an attempt dry them out and tomove the water into the sea as fast aspossible.

WOODLAND

Woodland in Jersey is often adjacent to wetmeadows. The steep valley sides aretypically sycamore dominated deciduouswoodland containing sweet chestnut, oak,ash and holm oak. At the base of the valleysare often wet meadows with a streamrunning through, and at the top of the valleysides the level of the land changes abruptlyto a relatively level plateau. Heavy rainfallevents often cause localised erosion and thismay become more pronounced in thefuture.

The valley side woodlands have very shallowsoil so in summer they may suffer; the climatespace predictions for common woodlandtree species show that potential suitableclimate space could increasingly be lost.Holm oak, already far more common inJersey than in the UK with its heavyevergreen canopy, may increase (Box 2).

WETLANDS

As with wet meadows, the remainingwetlands in Jersey, like St Ouen’s pond andGrouville marsh, provide valuable storageand attenuation services. The changingrainfall patterns will alter the ecology of theseareas. The common reed, Phragmitesaustralis, the typical plant of these areas mayhave limited suitable climate space by 2080.Furthermore, water shortages in summer mayexacerbate the risks to survival of wetlandareas in Jersey. The value of these areas asrefuge and feeding places for migratory birdswill increase if the water regimes can bemaintained by making sure they are notaffected by land drainage or extraction.


Box 2Changing potential suitable climatespace under a HadCM3 A2 scenario forHolm oak. The species is alreadyestablished within the Island’s woodlandwith BRANCH projections showing gainof climate space northwards intoSouthern England, Wales and Ireland(blue regions) with loss in northern Africa(red regions) (full key in article 4.11).

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WALLS AND BANQUES

Predictions of how climate change mayaffect the walls and banques which are socharacteristic of the Island’s landscape isimmensely complicated. These features canbe found all over the Island. They vary fromdry stone walls or stone faced banks with littlevegetation in the dry western parts of theIsland, to banks with hedges and trees invalleys. The physical form of the walls andbanques is unlikely to alter. Of greaterconcern are the changes that may occur tothe various trees and shrubs that provide thehabitat for many species in these locations.

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Biodiversity

4.11 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTTHE ISLAND’S SPECIES? Mike Freeman

limits in Jersey, although some smallcolonies are reported in the UK. It’spredicted that suitable climate space for L.bilineata is predicted to make strong gainslocally. This may mean that the lizard willbecome much more common in Jersey,although habitat availability will still be anissue.

Wall Lizard, Podarcis muralis

Similarly, the suitable climate space for walllizards is predicted to make strong gains,and conditions are likely to become morefavourable. The distribution of P. muralis is atpresent restricted to various small parts ofthe Island for reasons that are not fullyunderstood. Since we have made publicappeals for sightings the known areas haveincreased, indicating that habitatavailability may not be as limiting as at firstthought. The gains in suitable climate spacemay , as with L.. bilineata, enable P. muralisto become more widespread in Jersey.

Agile Frog, Rana dalmatina

This is also on its northern limit in Jersey.Suitable climate space is predicted tospread north and west. Climatic space willcontinue to be available in Jersey. Thepresent threatened status of the frog is notconsidered to be primarily due to climate.Pollution by agricultural chemicals is still aproblem with general low water levelsduring the breeding period contributing.

BIRDS

The following species are included in theBiodiversity Action Plans because they areshowing severe declines. Projectedchanges in simulated suitable climatespace are likely to have an impact buthabitat availability, connectivity, andmanagement are extremely influential.

Skylark, Alauda arvensis

From 2020 to 2050 the suitable climatespace for skylark is predicted to show loss inJersey. This factor, exacerbated byincreased disturbance, development andchanging agricultural practice, mayseverely threaten the future of the skylark inthe long term.

Four of Jersey’s plant species, on theBiodiversity Action Plan, were considered inthe BRANCH project. Potential climatechange impacts on these plant species anda selection of animal species are examinedhere.

Although no detailed studies have beencarried out, the following assessment drawsupon the views of the Ecology Division inconsideration of recent scientific literatureand locally observed changes.

FLORA

Wild asparagus, Asparagus officinalis

Recorded at the sand dunes in St Ouens andthe south coast cliffs, it appears to be slightlyincreasing in numbers (although this isprobably a function of increased surveyeffort). The climate space maps indicate thatpotential suitable climate space for thisspecies will continue to be available.

Wild Strawberry, Fragaria vesca

This has declined recently probably fromincreased enrichment of hedgerow andbank from fertilizer overspill. Suitable climatespace is not predicted to diminish in Jersey.

Yellow Horned-poppy, Glaucium flavum

A plant which thrives in the hot dry conditionsaround the west and south coast. Althoughits habitat might be damaged by sea levelrise and increased storms , its suitable climatespace is not predicted to decline in Jersey(see Box 1).

Shore Dock, Rumex rupestris

This is likely to suffer loss of coastal habitatdue to sea level rise. Suitable local climatespace is predicted to remain up to themiddle of the century. Since this speciestypically favours wet freshwater patches atthe base of sea-cliffs, the changes in wateravailability may have an adverse effect.

REPTILES AND AMPHIBIANS

Green Lizard, Lacerta bilineata

These are currently on their northern most86

Cirl Bunting, Emberiza cirlus

The predicted change in simulated climatespace for Cirl Bunting shows that the climateshould still be suitable into the 2050s. Habitatloss and availability of winter food and foodduring the breeding season continue to because for concern.

Stonechat, Saxicola torquata

Suitable climate space for Stonechat is alsopredicted to remain available into the future.Habitat loss and disturbance, lack of food in

winter and during the breeding season willhave to be addressed if the local populationis to recover.

Dartford Warbler, Sylvia undata

Suitable climate space for this heathland birdis predicted to remain available into thefuture. Drier summers are likely to increase therisk of gorse fires which are very damaging.Habitat loss due to change in agriculturalpractice and disturbance continue tocontribute to decline (see Box 1).


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Dartford Warbler Yellow Horned Poppy

Box 1The complexity of predicting the future distribution of species is dependant on manyfactors. These model forecasts focus on the influence of climate space and some speciesproduce clearer pictures than others. For example, the Dartford warbler reveals anorthward shift into the southern areas of the UK and Ireland and eastward into centralEurope. In contrast, the Yellow Horned Poppy, which favours coastal habitats, is predictedto spread inland in some areas but lose space inland in other regions. This highlights thedifficulty in making confident predictions.

Biodiversity

4.12 PLANKTON, A CLIMATE CHANGEINDICATOR?

years, and show the results for one species,the copepod Clausocalanus, which isindicative of warmer , more southerly waters.The long-term changes of Clausocalanus(Box 2) show that it has increased six-foldduring the past 15 years.

SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE AND OTHER FACTORS

Zooplankton, being near the very bottom ofthe food web and having a rapid generationtime, can respond to climate changequicker than many higher organisms. Theyare therefore good indicators, and havebeen used in previous studies. Many are ofeconomic importance, either directly as thelarval stage of exploited species, or indirectlyas the food of other species.

CHANGE OVER TIME AND LIKELY IMPACTS

Analysis of long-term plankton data for theEnglish Channel and Channel Islands hasshown the following changes in response toclimate warming:

The plankton community, with both plant(phyto-) and animal (zoo-) constituents,represents the base of the marine food web,and thus any changes can influence higherforms of marine life (such as fish).

Zooplankton consist of not only permanentlyplanktonic organisms, such as smallcrustacean called copepods (Box 1), whichprovide an extremely important food sourcefor larval fish, but also temporary members,such as the larval stages of crabs andlobsters.

Long term (1958 to present day) sampling bythe Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)survey has enabled the study of changes inabundance, community composition, andpeaks in seasonal timings, which can allimpact higher up the food chain, and areoften attributed as indicators of climatechange.

Here we discuss changes in the abundanceand distribution of zooplankton in recent

D. G. Johns and M. EdwardsSir Alistair Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science

Image Credit: Planet GuernseyBox 1The copepod Clausocalanus, which is indicative of warmer waters.

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Changes in temperature haveaffected the lowest elements in foodwebs, and this has propagated upwards.

Copepod species have shifted 10o

northwards, due to increased seatemperatures.

Increased temperatures have likelyallowed successful invasion by warmwater species. These may have movedfurther northwards as waters warmed, orbeen introduced via the ballast water inships.

There has been a change in one ofthe most abundant and importantcopepods, Calanus, with the colder(previously more abundant) speciesdeclining and the warmer water speciesincreasing. But, the combined number ofboth species has dropped, meaningthere is potentially less food for larval fish.

The start of seasonal cycles havechanged, getting earlier, potentially

causing a mis-match between inter-dependent organisms.

An increase in the occurrence ofNoctiluca scintillans, a potentially harmful (tofish and invertebrates) phytoplankton species.

These trends are likely to continue, due to anincrease in warming, and will have an effecton which fish species (both fin- and shell-) canbe commercially harvested in the future.


REFERENCES:

The Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation for OceanScience (SAHFOS) is an international charitythat operates the Continuous PlanktonRecorder (CPR) survey. The Foundation hasbeen collecting data from the NorthAtlantic and the North Sea onbiogeography and ecology of planktonsince 1931(http://www.sahfos.ac.uk)

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Box 2Plot of the long term abundance of Clausocalanus, an indicator of warm water.

Image Credit: Planet Guernsey

Biodiversity

4.13 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEON INTERTIDAL SPECIES

Warm water ‘southern’ species oftopshells, limpets, barnacles andseaweeds have extended their easternrange limits in the English Channel by upto 120km.

Population abundances for southerntopshells have increased six fold as seatemperatures have warmed. Similarchanges have occurred in southernbarnacles.

Cold-water ‘northern’ species of limpets,barnacles and seaweeds have shownreductions in abundance and someretraction in their southern limits.

These changes in northern species are notas marked as the increases recorded insouthern species.

Experimental research showed that thesechanges appear to be driven by increasedreproductive success of adult organisms asspring and summer temperatures haverisen, and increased over-winter survival ofjuveniles for southern species in response tomilder winters. In addition, indirect effects ofclimate change occurring via competitionare affecting the relative abundances ofnorthern versus southern species ofbarnacles and limpets.

A major study of the impacts of climatechange on marine biodiversity in Britain andIreland over the last 50 years (the MarClim

Intertidal animals and plants live at themargin between the sea and the land andso these organisms are subject to changes inboth environments. They can therefore serveas early warning indicators for the impacts ofclimate change. The larval stages of manyspecies can be indicative of changesoccurring in offshore waters. Low intertidaland subtidal kelp beds are nursery groundsfor juvenile fish, and are also an importantpart of the near-shore community. Longtermdata sets exist for intertidal invertebratesaround the coast of the British Isles, includingdata collected in Guernsey during the 1950s,1970s, 1980s and, more recently since 2000s.These data allow the responses of species tofluctuations in the climate to be determined.

SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE & OTHER FACTORS

Intertidal species are subject to widefluctuations in temperature, and are oftenalready living close to their thermal tolerancelimits. Rapid warming of the climate that hasoccurred in the English Channel over the lasttwo decades (Box 1) has altered theenvironmental regime of the intertidal zoneand species that are fixed to rocks or moveonly small distances are being forced toadapt or die.

CHANGE OVER TIME

Analysis of data from the 1950s, 1960s, 1980sand 2000s showed the following changes tointertidal species in the English Channel inresponse to climate warming:

N. Mieszkowska, R Leaper, J. Hill, A.J. Southerward & S.J. HawkinsMarine Biological Association of the UK

Box 1Mean annual seasurfacetemperature for thecoastal waters ofthe English Channel.Note that the off-shore surfacetemperature is verysimilar to thatrecorded in St Helierharbour, (Article 2.7)with the sameupward trend inrecent years.

Image Credit: Planet Guernsey

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project, see also Article 4.7), has beenundertaken with a view to predicting likelyfuture climate impacts. The MarClim teamhas predicted the following changes:

Further pole-wards expansion of warmwater species.

Continued contractions in the southernrange limits and abundance of northernspecies.

Increased invasions of non-native speciesare likely to occur, and expand their rangeif already established.

A short-term increase in biodiversity mayoccur followed by a longer-term decline inbiodiversity as native species of northern,cold water origins are lost from anincreasing number of shores.

There is the potential for huge changes toBritish marine inter-tidal ecosystems withinthe next 50-80 years, and Jersey will not beexempt from this.

LIKELY IMPACT

The shores in the Channel Islands hostsouthern, warm-water species of intertidalspecies including the topshell Gibbulapennanti that are not currently found on theBritish mainland. Such species are predictedto colonise shores in southwest England asfuture climate warming opens up new regionsof suitable thermal habitat. The island is thusan important ‘stepping stone’ for the spreadof non-native species onto the Britishmainland.

Northern cold-water species that are currentlypresent on the island, including kelps thatprovide nursery grounds for juvenile fish arepredicted to decline in abundance astemperatures continue to increase. Non-native species including the Japaneseseaweed Sargassum muticum andAustralasian barnacle Elminius modestus (Box2) have already invaded Jersey andGuernsey and are predicted to increase inabundance as the climate continues towarm.


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REFERENCES:Prof. Steve Hawkins, NovaMieszkowska and Rebecca Leaperof the MBA have been regularvisitors to Jersey, Guernsey and theEnglish Channel coastlines ofEngland and France carrying outresearch on intertidal species.

Marine Biological Association ofthe UK: http://www.mba.ac.uk/.Marine Biodiversity and ClimateChange (MarClim project):http://mba.ac.uk/marclim/

Box 2(a) The invasive Japanese seaweedSargassum muticum (above)

(b) The invasive Austalasian barnacleElminius modestus (top right).

Both species have been transported to Britishcoastal waters within the ballast water ofinternational ships.

Image Credits: Planet Guernsey

http://www.mba.ac.uk/.

http://mba.ac.uk/marclim/

Health

4.14 HUMAN HEALTH IN A CHANGINGCLIMATE Health Protection Section

Northern Europe warms up. Evidencesuggests that outbreaks of malaria in the UKand Jersey are likely to be rare, howeverHealth Authorities need to remain alert tothe possibility of outbreaks in otherEuropean countries. It is not unreasonableto believe other disease carriers may arrivein the UK and Jersey bringing diseases withthem. Other diseases of concern includeLyme Disease or Encephalopathya carriedby ticks and mosquitoes. Although thechance of such diseases becomingestablished in the UK or Jersey is very low,the Island will need to remain vigilant.

Sea level rise

An increase in sea level of between 9-69cmis likely by the 2080s will hopefully becontrolled through improvements to our seadefences. The effect on Jersey of anextreme sea level increase (although this isnot thought to be likely during the next 100years) could be catastrophic. For exampleparts of the hospital, Jersey Electricitypower station, sewage treatment works,energy from waste plant, fuel farm andmany domestic properties around the coastwould be under water.

Flooding associated with sea level increaseor changing storm patterns could cause therelease of sewage into the environment asthe Island’s infrastructure fails. This increasesthe chance of illnesses including Cholera,Typhoid, E.coli and viruses. Flooding alsocarries the direct risks of injury anddrowning. Globally, sea level changescould have a significant impact onmigration so influencing the spread ofdisease.

Extremes of weather

More periods of heavy rainfall (over short

The following sections highlight someconcerns over the potential health effects ofclimate change.

Effects of Higher Temperatures

Current predictions suggest highertemperatures will result in 3 extra summerheat–related deaths per year. This could beoffset by approximately 33 fewer cold deathsin winter, but it is still 3 deaths too many.

Predicting severe heat waves and their effectis difficult, but the impact of not beingprepared is significant. For example, there is a1 in 40 chance that by 2012 South-EasternEngland will experience a heat wave that willcause perhaps 3,000 immediate heat-relateddeaths and a further 6,350 heat-relateddeaths (Source, Health Protection Agency).In terms of thinking about risks to health, a riskof 1 in 40 is high.

Excessive summer heat could result in adeterioration in the quality of work and livingconditions. This may result in greater relianceon air conditioning and therefore greaterenergy use - as fuel poverty becomes moreprevalent this directly impacts on health.

Bacteria multiplies faster in warmertemperatures. This means there is thepotential for more food poisoning incidents.There could be up to 14,000 (14.5%) morecases of food poisoning, including Salmonella,per year in the UK (Source, Health ProtectionAgency).

There could be more algal blooms in seawater in the future. This would affect bathingwater quality and potentially contaminateshellfish.

Diseases such as Malaria (carried bymosquitoes), are likely to spread north as

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“Climate change is perhaps the most significant environmental problem whichmankind will face in the coming century. Efforts to reduce the extent of climate

change are of course important, but it is likely that we will have to deal with at leastsome impacts on health”

Sir William Stewart Chairman Health Protection Agency said in the report“Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK” an update of the Department of Health Report 2001/2002

periods), is likely to increase the bacterialloading of surface water. There is a clear riskto drinking water supplies as the risk ofcontamination rises.Increase in ultra violet light

With an increased exposure to ultra-violetlight, cases of skin cancers are expected torise. It is believed there could be 50 extracases per year locally by 2050. Newevidence also suggests that UV exposure is acause of some types of cataract. This couldresult in 3 extra cataract cases per year inJersey by 2050.

Air pollution

Air pollution levels continue to change.Concentrations of a number of importantpollutants are likely to decline over the nexthalf century, which is good news.Unfortunately the concentration of ozone islikely to increase. Significant changes arepredicted for the UK with conservativeassumptions suggest up to 1,500 extrahospital admissions and deaths per annum.

Mental & Social Effects

The mental health of the population maybenefit from warmer weather for longerperiods, potentially reducing the number ofdepressive illness cases. The milder climate isalso likely to be more conducive to outdooractivities helping the population to get outand exercise more.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?

Higher Temperatures: Ensure the populationhas access to information to help them copewith possible changes; buildings should bedesigned to provide a comfortable climatethrough design rather than reliance on airconditioning.

Storms: Building regulations should ensurestructures can cope with any potentialincreased weather extremes. The Islands’drainage and essential infrastructure must befuture proof.

Water Levels: It is important that seadefences are maintained to keep thepopulation safe.

Keep track of Change: Our Department hasalready taken measures to address the futureconsequences of climate change on health.It is now important to move forward andproduce a quantitative assessment to helpassess the health risks of the future climate.


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Box 1

Top to bottom: An increased risk of skincancer; possible infection from various‘disease’ vectors such as this tick;potential exposure to disease such assalmonella; increased likelihood of algalblooms; and greater dependence on airconditioning are all potentialconsequences of the future climate.

deliver insects that are not indigenous,ranging from Colorado beetle, variousSouthern European lepidopteran species,and occasionally migratory locusts.Ordinarily these visitors would not be ableto establish here. However, insects areamongst the most versatile and easilymoved organisms on the planet, and alsosome of the hardest to control. Climatechange may allow some of these visitors tobecome resident.

Strategies are already in place to monitorfor certain migrants, the most importantcurrently being the Colorado Beetle. Asclimate change effects are felt, it is likelythat more monitoring programs will beimplemented against potentially damagingmigrants. There will need to be a greaterfocus on bio-security – detection of non-indigenous species as they arise andeffective environmentally acceptablesolutions for their control.

PUBLIC HEALTH

Another risk is not direct damage from newinsects, but what they bring with them.Insects are extremely efficient vectors ofviruses and diseases that can affect plants,animals and humans. Potentialconsequences as a result of new vectorsare discussed in the other articles in thissection.

CHANGE HAS BEGUN

Over the last few years anecdotalevidence has suggested that climatechange is already having an effect on theinsect fauna of the Island.

The first example of this is the two spottedspider mite (Tetranychus urticae) (Box 1a).

Health

4.15 INSECTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: WHATA PEST! Scott Meadows

(a) Box 1(a) The two spotted spider mite(Tetranychus urticae) and (b) The fuschiagall mite (Aculops fuchsiae)

Both species are now present in Jerseyhaving once been restricted to warmerclimes.

(b)

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MODELLING CHANGE

As we have seen in previous sections, climatemodelling is complex. Current work suggeststhat under a warmer climate many Europeanand exotic insect species could establish inNorthern Europe and could potentially causeserious problems. Changes in other factorssuch as rainfall, humidity will also impact uponinsect populations.

Climatic change will also introduce indirectconsequences such as increased plant growthor plant stress (e.g. from drought) makingthem more susceptible to attack by pests andpathogens.

CROP ALTERATION

Any prediction of the change in range ofinsect pests must also account for thevariability in ecosystems for example thesuitable vegetation availability and type.

Crops grown locally may alter as climateprevents the production of historically grownspecies. In turn, insect species which arecurrently viewed as pests could become lessrelevant, whilst new crops may provide anecological niche for pests that are notcurrently considered. One of the most likelyeffects of climate change may be thealteration of the balance between insects,their natural enemies and their host plants.When considering all these levels ofcomplexity, predictions become even moredifficult make.

JERSEY’S LOCATION

Jersey, with its close proximity to the Europeanmainland, has always been an interestingarea from a species distribution point of view.Southerly and easterly air flows regularly

This is a global pest of a wide range of foodand ornamental crops. At Jersey’s latitude itcauses most problems in glasshouses.Ordinarily it would enter hibernation-likestate in the late autumn, triggered by fallinglight and temperatures. However, forapproximately 5 years it has been observedremaining active throughout the year andhas been observed on outdoor plants bothearly and late in the growing season.

Similarly, in 2006, Aculops fuchsiae, theFuchsia Gall mite (Box 1b), was confirmed inover 100 Jersey gardens. Originating fromsub-tropical areas this pest was most likelyintroduced by a private collector, but hasfound conditions suitable enough toestablish and spread rapidly, killing most ofthe plants it infests.

Similarly, in the summer of 2007 largeornamental trees in parks in Jersey sufferedattack from Heliothrips haemorrhoidalis, theGreenhouse Thrips (Box 2a) which is atropical South American species. In Britain itis almost always restricted to glasshousesbut the warm, damp conditions of thesummer of 2007 allowed the pest to multiplymassively. In both these cases it is fortunatethat the pests are destructive of non-indigenous, largely ornamental species thatcontribute very little to the Islands’ecosystem unlike native species such asoak or heather.

In 2007 the Oak Processionary Moth (Box2b) was detected in Jersey. Originally fromcentral and southern Europe the moths areposing an increasing threat as their range isbeing extended by the warming European

climate. This pest is a major defoliator of oaks,and consecutive defoliations can causedeath of a tree. This insect also poses ahuman hazard as the backs of oldercaterpillars are covered with thousands ofpointed defensive bristles containing a toxin.Even if the larvae are not handled, the hairsbreak off readily, become airborne and cancause rashes or breathing difficulties for somepeople.

It is important to remember that nature isadaptive and able to moderate populationsif change is not too rapid. This isdemonstrated with predator-preyinteractions. A new species may arrive, find asuitable food source and multiply rapidly,creating economic or environmentaldamage. Often its arrival will be followed bythe arrival of its parasites, predators anddiseases. This was the case with the OakProcessionary Moth in Jersey. In all the nestsfound almost 100% of the caterpillars hadbeen parasitised, either by a local fly species,or by a non-native which had followed theOak Processionary Moth on its northernmigration restricting the size of the infestation.

CONCLUSION

It is very difficult to accurately predict thechanges in the insect population in Jersey asa result of climate change. There is a need forincreased vigilance and awareness,communication with other Europeancountries so we know what might be headedour way, and an ability to be able to reactaccurately and appropriately whenthreatening incursion, be it on the grounds ofplant, animal or human health, does occur.


(a) (b)

Box 2(a) The Greenhouse Thrips (Heliothripshaemorrhoidalis) originally of South Americawas detected in Jersey in 2007.

(b) Evidence of the oak precessionarymoth, detected in Jersey in the summer of2007.

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Health

4.16 A CHANGING CLIMATE FOR ANIMALHEALTH Linda Lowseck

change. However, as highlighted in Box 2,the location of such diseases may alteraccording to the habitable climate spaceof a species.

THE FUTURE

With respect to ‘tropical diseases’ theeasiest way to consider their spread is tolook at countries that experience the sameclimate today as is forecast for here in thefuture. Essentially, Jersey’s climate isexpected to be more Mediterranean in feelin the future. Vectors common in thislocation at present, such as Culicoidesimicola, that carry bluetongue and AfricanHorse Sickness are likely to invade ourshores. West Nile virus has also occurred inItaly and the south of France in recentyears, as have Phlebotomous sandflies thatcarry leishmaniasis – a very serious diseaseof dogs that is also transmissible to humans.

In consideration of livestock climatechange is most likely to have a negative

Worldwide, humans suffer a range ofdiseases transmitted from wild ordomesticated animals. Topical examplesinclude avian influenza, Severe AcuteRespiratory Syndrome (SARS) and West Nilefever. Furthermore, there are many diseasesthat, although not transferable to humans,cause pain, suffering or even death to ourpets and livestock. By the end of the 21stCentury the spread of diseases of animalscould be very different to how things looktoday.

In order to assess the potential impact ofclimate change the combinations of factorsand events that interact to cause animaldisease must first be established. From thisbaseline, any factor or event that may beinfluenced by climate change can beassessed to forecast how it will differ in thefuture. However, any single disease is likely tobe affected by many factors that cannot bepredicted with confidence. These includechanges to livestock management, thephysical environment, developments inanimal genetics, scientific and technologicaladvances as well as extreme weatherevents.

As discussed in previous articles, the spreadof vectors will have a major influence on thetransmission of diseases. Such vectorsinclude types of flies, midges, ticks, snails andmosquitoes. A direct effect of a warmerclimate may, for example, limit currentpopulations of mosquitoes as theenvironment becomes too dry. Conversely,the habitat suitable for mosquitoes mayextend if humidity or rainfall patternsincrease. Furthermore, indirect effects mayinfluence vector populations, for examplethe increased temperature and drierconditions could still allow population growthdue to increased water storage areas (i.e.tanks) creating new breeding sites.

Disease may also be spread throughpathogens or parasites in the air. The heatand humidity of the local environment caninfluence the longevity of vectors outside ofa host animal. Box 1 highlights the exampleof foot and mouth disease that spread fromFrance to the UK on the wind.

In contrast, diseases transmitted directlybetween animals at close contact areunlikely to be severely impacted by climate

Box 1In 1981 Foot and Mouth Disease spreadfrom Brittany to the UK. The wind carriedthe vector 150 miles and crossed Jerseycausing one case of the disease locally.On the mainland, 400 animals had to beslaughtered and animal movement inHampshire and the Isle of Wight was re-stricted.

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Identified in 1937 it is increasingly clear thatWest Nile virus (WNV) will thrive in the futureclimate of Northern Europe. The virus excelsin mild winters coupled with prolongeddroughts and heat waves - all features thatare expected locally as climate change setsin.

WNV is transmitted by mosquitoes to birds,horses and humans and can causeinflammation of the brain, brain lining andspinal cord. The mosquito vector breeds wellin pools underground and is therefore suitedto urban drainage.

During droughts these pools are a rich foodsource as rotting organic material and thescarce availability of water draws in birds,helping to circulate the virus. Hightemperatures accelerate virus development,which means that there is a greater chancethat the virus is transferable whilst themosquito is alive.

All of these factors enhance the possibilitythat infectious virus levels will build up in birdsand mosquitoes living in close proximity tohumans. The disease is clearly a threat - in1999 seven New Yorkers died from thedisease and sixty-two others were infected.

Closer to home a study of British birds found‘evidence’ of WNV in 20 species includingcrows, magpies, swallows, chickens, turkeysand ducks. These birds were healthy but thevirus antibody was found indicating that thebirds had come in contact with the virus. It isthought the virus was brought to the UK bymigrating birds but is said to provide noimmediate threat to humans at present.

Case Study: West Nile Virus

Box 2Bird flu will not be directly impacted byclimate change as the flu is passedthrough contact either directly betweenbirds or through their faeces.

However, there is potential for spread ofthe disease - in a changing climate themigration routes of different birds maychange. This can alter the areas whichare likely to be impacted by infectedbirds and should be of consideration tothose planning for such outcomes.

REFERENCESForesight: Preparing for the Future. T7.3. Effects of Cli-mate Change on Infectious Diseases of Animals. https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-office-for-scienceP. Gale et al, Veterinary Record, ‘Predicting the impact of climate change on livestock disease in Great Britain.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3079425.stm Images in Box 1 and Case Study - Foresight Report, I mage Box 2: www,chinapost.com.tw/news_images/2007 1209/p2a-1.jpg

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effect through extreme rainfall inducedflooding. For example, Anthrax spores maybe disturbed from the soil to contaminatewater or animal slurries (containing diseasessuch as E. coli) may breach sludge tanksand disperse over large areas.

Fortunately, the spread of major avianinfluenza (see Box 2), brucellosis, BovineSpongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), ClassicalSwine Fever, Foot and Mouth, Rabies andSalmonella are all transmitted by closecontact so the direct influence of climatechange is likely to be minimal.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

Climate change will affect diseases in manyways. It will influence the behaviour of thepathogen, the host and the vector, bothdirectly and indirectly. The number andvariety of possible diseases and diseasevectors, the processes affecting them, andthe uncertainty of climate change forecastsmakes predicting future animal diseases anextremely complex science.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-office-for-science

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3079425.stm

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/

Health

4.17 CLIMATE CHANGE, A GROWING PROBLEMFOR PLANT HEALTH? Steve Thompson

PATH

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Total of conditions favouring disease

HOSTTotal of conditions favouring susceptibility

Amount ofdisease

PATH

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abu

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ENVIRONM

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Amount ofdisease

PATH

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l of v

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Amount ofdisease

Box 1THE DISEASE TRIANGLE

The length of each side of thetriangle is proportional to howfavourable that component isin allowing the growth ofdisease. In this case, as eachside is equal the environment,host and pathogen are allequally conducive to thespread of disease.

Climate change is likely tomake the environment morehospitable, the host (i.e. theplants) more stressed andtherefore susceptible, and thepathogen longer living - thuslengthening all sides of thedisease triangle.

Jersey Royal potato (Box 2).

Occurrences and the severity of cases oflate blight are expected to increase as aremost other diseases currently present incrops, countryside and gardens in Jersey.Root and stem rots and bacterial problemson brassicas and other vegetables will resultin greater pesticide usage to combat falls inproductivity.

There are likely to be more outbreaks ofnotifiable diseases such as fireblight, whichwill severely compromise hawthornhedgerows and apple orchards throughoutthe island unless comprehensive controlmeasures are routinely undertaken. Leafspot, rust and mildew problems onornamental and flowering garden plants willincrease.

A warmer climate may allow new, currently‘exotic’ diseases to become established. Anexample is pitch canker of pine, originally anew world fungal disease that is regarded asthe major threat to over 30 species of Pinus,including those found in Jersey. The diseasebecame established in northern Iberia. It ispresently limited to areas exhibitingMediterranean climates as it is transmitted

Amounts of disease in plants are dependenton the interactions of three main factors:

Pathogens (e.g. fungi or bacteria)Susceptibility of host plantsThe environment

The interactions can be visualised as atriangle, referred to as the ‘disease triangle’(Box 1). The length of each side of thetriangle is proportional to the sum total of thecharacteristics of each component thatfavour disease. For example, the morefavourable the environmental conditions thathelp the pathogen (e.g. temperature andhumidity), the longer the pathogen sidewould be. This would cause the area of thedisease triangle to increase representing agreater potential amount of disease.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

A warmer climate with wetter winters willresult in an increase in length of all three sidesof the disease triangle although this may bemitigated somewhat should summersbecome drier.

We can illustrate this in real terms using theexample of late blight which affects the

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by beetle vectors that are unable to surviveprolonged periods of cold winter weather.Authorities, such as the European PlantProtection Organisation, believe that pitchcanker will migrate northwards in future yearsas milder winter temperatures allow significantnumbers of beetle vectors to survive overwinter and subsequently spread the disease.

PESTICIDES

The majority of pesticide manufacture isdependant upon oil which is already sufferingsevere prices rises. If this trend continuespesticides will become more expensive and

less available leading to greater crop healthproblems. Oil based inorganic fertilisers withtheir nitrous oxide emissions could becomeuneconomically priced. If they also haverestrictions placed on them limiting their use itwill lead to greater reliance on animalmanures, recycled organic fertilisers and lessintensive husbandry methods.

CONCLUSION

Climate change is likely to cause increaseddisease in contemporary commercial crops,indigenous plants and trees, and ornamentaland garden plants.

Case Study - Late Blight and Jersey Royals

The pathogenic fungus which causes lateblight, Phytophthora infestans, requires aminimum temperature and humiditybefore it produces infectious spores andinfects new host potato plants.

Warmer, wetter winters will result in agreater number of spores beingproduced early in the year and so thelengths of the environment andpathogen sides of the disease triangle willbe increased.

Host susceptibility will also increasebecause plants will grow faster and soproduce more soft, green tissues whichare more easily infected.

The appearance of late blight on a potato plantleaf showing spore production.

It follows that increasing the length ofall three sides of the late blight diseasetriangle will increase its area and thusthe amount of late blight that will affectpotato crops.

Drier summers will limit disease levelsbecause the lengths of the pathogenand environment sides will decrease.Unfortunately, this limiting factor will beslight as more extreme weather condi-tions will cause plants to become morestressed resulting in the host side of thetriangle to increase further.

The effects of late blight on a protected (indoor)crop of Jersey Royal potatoes.

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Infrastructure

4.18 SEA LEVEL, OF RISING IMPORTANCE?James Le Ruez and John Renouf

published their report commissioned by theStates of Jersey entitled, ‘Climate ChangeJersey, Effects on Coastal Defences’. Thisestablished that:

‘Adaptive improvement will be required inorder to maintain or improve the presentstandard of protection against coastalflooding despite higher tidal levels andpossibly larger waves.’

‘It is likely that maintaining the existing highstandards of coastal defence enjoyed byJersey will require an increasing budget, andit will be important to allocate the availablefunds in a transparent manner, that reflectsthe urgency and extent of the risks offlooding or erosion at different location’

It is clear from these comments that moredemanding storm surges can be expected inthe future and that climate change willdirectly influence the expenditure of not justlocal businesses, but also the States of Jersey.

VULNERABLE AREAS

As detailed in articles 1.6 and 1.7,understanding the processes at work in theisland now and in the past provides insightsinto potential threats of sea encroachment.

Swamps and marshy areas occur all roundour coastal bays. Their occurrences arepatchy both in space and time. Thisindicates that they were originally formedwhen the barriers (mainly of sand) thatseparated them from the rising sea werefinally breached and the area behindflooded. Barrier breaching of this sort isdocumented in post-Neolithic time.

The British Irish Council (BIC) Report intoclimate change scenarios for islands withinthe BIC region suggests:

‘Sea level will rise over the next century andbeyond, mainly due to the thermalexpansion of the ocean as it picks up heatfrom the greenhouse warming in theatmosphere. In addition the melting ofglaciers and land ice will add water to theoceans … There is great uncertainty in thecalculation of each of these components ofsea-level rise, different climate models givevery different estimates even for the sameemissions scenario’

The potential global sea level increases untilthe 2080s are highlighted in Box 1. There isconsiderable uncertainty associated withthese predictions, plus further complicationsdue to the movement of the land itself. TheBIC scenarios conclude that by the 2080sthe lower estimate of sea level increase is9cm and the upper estimate is 69cm(excluding the movement of land).

Of great concern to the local populationwill be the potential for flooding through the‘storm surges’ as witnessed to devastatingeffect in March of 2008. Damage toinfrastructure including the sea wall,flooding of properties and erosion of thecoastline were witnessed as strong westerlywinds combined with high tides in a springcycle. Box 2 highlights the BIC report’spredictions for the increase in the height ofa storm surge suggesting such events couldworsen.

OUR SEA DEFENCES

In 2007 the UK consultancy HR Wallingford

Source: BIC Report, 2003

Box 1Potential increase inglobal sea levelpredicted using avariety of models andemissions scenarios.

N.B. More recent andevolving data suggestthese are veryconservativeestimates.

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It must be noted that encroachment ontoland areas can be held back for long periodsof sea level increase. Often the finalbreaching of such barriers will have occurredduring a phase of extreme weather. This is ofimmediate relevance considering extremeweather events are predicted to increase infrequency.

The case of Goose Green Marsh is illustrativeof this point. The coast road betweenBeaumont and Bel Royal is built on a naturalsand barrier and separates the present sandyforeshore from a low lying marsh, which is wellbelow high tide level. With high tides and asoutherly wind the sea overtops the sea walland spills water across the car park. If eventsbecame that little more extreme, incombination with sea level increase, therecould be serious flooding of this low lying land.


Box 2The 1 in 50 year storm surge is expectedto be around 50cm higher towards theend of the 21st Century. The necessity ofthe Thames barrier which may not proveadequate defence in the future is high-lighted by the increase of around 1m inthe Thames estuary.

REFERENCES:

British Irish Council Report into ClimateChange Scenarios 2003, www.british-irishcouncil.net/climatechange

Climate Change Jersey, Effects onCoastal Defences, HR Wallingford, 2007

101Map Sources: Terrametrics and Rybot.

Our Future Coastline

The second map offers a longer termprospective based on a consideration ofthe contrast between the soft sediments ofthe island's coastal plains and theunderlying hard rocks if no protectivebarriers are present. Erosion down tobedrock could occur with only a slight risein sea level because the soft rock/hardinterface is only slightly above sea levelalong the coastline shown on this mapwhere the present coastline is ghosted in.

The maps below highlight ways of lookingat future coastline predictions.

The first map identifies areas at risk ofinundation (red arrows) either becausethey are marshy areas already belowpresent high tide levels and kept safe bynatural sand barriers and/or sea walls orbecause they would be seriously affectedby a rise of as little as 1m. A riseapproaching the order of 1m - one of theseveral predictions already made for 2100AD - would require improvements tocurrent sea defences in most coastalareas.

Infrastructure

4.19 OUR FUTURE WATER SUPPLIES IN ACHANGING CLIMATE Tim Du Feu and Colin Cheney

flows and downward migration of streamheadwaters (i.e. a stream does not form ashigh in the valley as they had donepreviously). Borehole and well yields mayalso decline and, during extreme events,some may dry entirely. Unfortunately, such adecline in available water resources isgenerally matched by booming waterdemand from consumers and groundwaterabstractors, thereby exacerbating theproblem. Historically this has resulted insupply restrictions as the available resourcedwindles.

RESOURCES

Public supply in Jersey is overwhelminglydependant on surface water reservoirs (Box1) as a source of supply, although thesesupplies can be augmented by the outputfrom a desalination plant during particularlydry periods.

The potential impacts of climate change onthe environment as a whole are likely to bedramatic, not least in terms of waterresources upon which all living organisms aredependant.

PROCESSES

All of Jersey’s fresh water resource originatesfrom rainfall. The Island receives an annualaverage rainfall of 884 mm (1968 to 1996), ofwhich 618 mm is lost to the atmosphere viaevaporation and plant transpiration. Thisleaves an average annual balance(‘effective rainfall’) of 266 mm. Part of thisruns off the land to form streams that fill thewater supply reservoirs. The reminder sinksinto the subsurface to provide recharge tothe groundwater aquifers.

Aquifer recharge predominantly occursduring the winter months when rainfall is at amaximum whilst evaporation andtranspiration are at a minimum. Stream flowsare also normally greatest during the wintermonths when consumer demand is lowestand it is during that period that storagereservoirs are replenished.

During the summer months stream flows arereduced but in the absence of significantrainfall are maintained by groundwaterdischarge. Summer stream flow volumes arecommonly considerably less than consumerdemand but nevertheless currently help tomaintain reservoir levels during drier periods.

In drought years, a drier than normal wintermay be followed by a particularly drysummer. Under such circumstances, streamflows remain at below average volumesduring the winter and reservoir storagedeficits from the previous summer are notreplenished. In addition, little or no aquiferrecharge may occur under such conditions.This can result in groundwater levels, alreadylow at the end of summer, continuing todecline through the winter and thendeclining even further during the succeedingsummer.

As groundwater levels decline, reducedaquifer discharge results in lowered stream

Box 1In the future the balance between thereplenishment of Island reservoirs (such asHandois above) by rainfall in the winter,and their drainage through usage anddryness in summer, will be important.

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More rural areas, particularly those outside ofthe main public supply area, are dependantprimarily on groundwater abstraction fromboreholes or wells, although a limited numberof properties obtain supplies from rainwaterharvesting, augmented by tankered water indrier periods.

Water demand is increasing with time as thepopulation increases, new housing andcommercial premises are constructed and,with increasing affluence.

Total public water supply has followed a fairlysteady upward trend, increasing from 6.834million litres in 1996 to 7,291 million litres in2005. The total quantity of groundwaterabstracted is uncertain but has beenestimated at 3,600 million litres per annum.The enactment of the Water Resources(Jersey) Law 2007 will permit the collection ofinformation that will allow a full assessment ofthis volume to be made in the future.

PROBABLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The reality of climate change has now beenwidely accepted, however the precise

consequences are as yet not well defined.Recent studies and modelling conducted bythe Hadley Centre indicate that the meanannual temperatures are likely to increase by3oC by the 2080s. Summer rainfall is predictedto decrease by 45%, whilst winter rainfall ispredicted to increase by 24%.

This might suggest that increased winterrainfall would result in increased runoff toreservoir storage and increased recharge tothe subsurface aquifers. However, the higherannual temperatures will cause an increase inevaporation during both the winter andsummer months and an extended growingseason will result in higher levels of wateruptake by transpiration during the winter.

Winter rainfall, although higher, is predicted tobe more variable. This uncertainty in theability of winter rainfall to fill storage reservoirsready for the drier summers, and the lowerrecharge rates to reservoirs predicted duringthe drier summer, may require an increase inthe Island’s reservoir capacity (Box 1) as asafeguard measure.

Alongside the predicted changes brought byclimate change, is the overall increase inwater demand as the Island becomes moredeveloped and households generally usemore water thirsty appliances.

These extra demands placed on a scarceresource can partly be countered by watermetering of households, design of newhousing developments and increasing publicawareness of responsible and sustainablewater use.

The frequency of sporadic droughts mayincrease. It is therefore essential that thewater resources in the Island are fullyunderstood and the impacts of climatechange are managed accordingly.

Groundwater abstraction from boreholes andwells is an ‘unknown’ within the Island’s waterbalance equation. Registration of these isone key function of the Water Resources(Jersey) Law, 2007. Safeguarding the qualityof the water resource is also important andachieved through the Water Pollution (Jersey)Law, 2000.


Box 2Water resources are stretched by anumber of factors other than climate.Pollution is an obvious example regularlymonitored by the EnvironmentDepartment .

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WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

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Louise Magris

forward in the Energy Policy Green paperthat was consulted upon in 2007/2008.

THE ENERGY POLICY GREEN PAPER

The proposed goal of Jersey's energy policy isto achieve ‘Secure, Affordable, SustainableEnergy’. This recognised that energy isessential to our quality of life, our economyand social equity.

The Green Paper put forward a number ofoptions that described the fiscal, legislativeand policy measures to achieve this goal. Themeasures proposed fall into the followingcategories:

Doing more with less – reducing energyuse;Adopting sustainable energy solutions;Ensuring a secure and resilient energysupply;Preparing for the future.

To help make sense of the priority for action,an Energy Hierarchy for Jersey wasestablished (Box 1). In this hierarchy the firststep is to reduce energy demand.

AN ENERGY POLICY WHITE PAPER

An Energy Policy White Paper is beingdeveloped to incorporate the feedbackreceived during the Green Paper’sconsultation period. It continues to besteered by a cross-department Ministerialgroup led by the Minister for Treasury andResources and comprising the Minister forPlanning and Environment and the Ministerfor Economic Development. The principles ofthe Green Paper, including the energy

The evidence put forward in this publicationshows that human activity is acceleratingglobal climate change on Jersey and that theeffects are likely to be serious and certainlycan not be ignored.

The answer to the question ‘what should bedone about this?’ is twofold andencompassed by ‘mitigation’ and‘adaptation’ actions.

Mitigation involves taking actions to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and to enhancecarbon sinks aimed at reducing the extent ofclimate change. Adaptation involves takingaction to plan for and minimise the impacts ofclimate change.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE - MITIGATION

The Island became a signatory to the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) in 1994. The KyotoProtocol under this agreement was extendedto the Island in 2006. Countries that ratify thisprotocol commit to reduce their emissions ofCO2 and five other GHGs. The Protocol nowcovers more than 160 countries globally andover 55% of global greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions.

Because Jersey has ratified the Kyoto Protocolthorough the United Kingdom it does nothave an allocated emissions reduction target.However as a signatory to Kyoto, Jersey musthonour its commitment to take part inconcerted actions to reduce emissions. Jerseyhas much to gain by adopting challengingtargets for the reduction of energy use andconsequent reduction in emissions and awide range of policy options were put

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Source: Energy Policy Green Paper

A Proposed Energy Hierarchy for Jersey.

The Energy Hierarchy accepts that allforms of energy have economic, socialand environmental consequences andby ranking these, it assists in prioritisingJersey’s energy choices.

Box 1

hierarchy, have been endorsed already by theCouncil of Ministers and will be fundamental tothe White Paper which is expected to bebought before the States in the Summer of2009.

Considerable progress on two critical workstreams have already begun ahead of thepublication of the Energy White Paper :

AN ENERGY EFFICIENCY SERVICE FOR JERSEY

Funding for the first phase of an ‘EnergyEfficiency Programme’ was agreed by theStates of Jersey in September 2008. Theprogramme will help low-income andvulnerable households reduce their energy billsand improve the energy efficiency of theirhomes by providing up to 100% grants for arange of measures including loft and cavitywall insulation. A full service will be offeredincorporating, inspection, supply and fittingthrough approved contractors.

The funding for the first year of this grantprogramme is from the States who agreed oneyears funding of £1 million and is supported bya voluntary contribution of £500,000 from theJersey Electricity Company. The intention is thatthis initiative will act as a stimulus to recurringfunding and more substantial States fundedprogrammes to encourage people to useenergy sustainably and to act on climatechange.

The Minister for Treasury and Resources willreturn to the States in September 2009 todemonstrate progress and seek agreement forongoing funding.

RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR JERSEY

The Energy Policy Green Paper identified thepotential for the exploitation of renewableenergy, at a large enough scale to displacefossil fuel imports in the long-term.

In Summer 2008, the Minister for Planning andEnvironment appointed a Tidal Power SteeringGroup (TPSG) to advise him how the Islandmight best exploit tidal stream technology in itsterritorial waters. The TPSG was chaired by theConstable of Grouville who reported back tothe Minister in December 2008.

The unanimous conclusion was that tidalpower could, in the medium term, make asignificant and increasing contribution to theenergy requirements and security of the Island

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SOURCES:

The Energy Policy Green Paper and the report‘Tidal power for Jersey - Options and opportunities’are both available at http://www.gov.je

for the rest of this century and that thepossibility should be actively pursued by anappropriately qualified and mandated group.The Minister warmly received theserecommendations in December 2008 andasked for the TPSG to advise him on theformat of the mandated group with a remitto :

Investigate funding options around theenvironmental and technicalinvestigations;Investigate the legislative andcommercial framework necessary toattract resource developers;Negotiate with our neighbouringjurisdictions to explore potentialcollaborations both in harnessing theresource and selling to potential markets.

The TPSG will report back to the Minister inSpring 2008.

2. CLIMATE CHANGE - ADAPTATION

The fourth category of policy measuresproposed in the Energy Policy Green Paperwas ‘preparing for the future’. This refers tothe need to adapt for the degree of climatechange that inevitably will affect Jersey.Regardless of the success of global measuresto mitigate emissions, because ofatmospheric inertia and the volume ofgreenhouse gas emissions already released,there will be a continued degree of climatechange.

Some work has already been done to ensurethat the Island is prepared. For instance therehas been a major review of the Island’scoastal defences taking into account thepredicted sea level rise over this century

The Energy White Paper will identify the needto bring forward a strategy to measure andcope with the effects of climate change. Thephysical effects, for example on the ruraleconomy, are relatively straightforward tounderstand. However, the biggest challengewill be in preparing for a changed globaleconomy and world population inhabiting avery different physical environment than thatwhich we see today.

http://www.gov.je

STATES OF JERSEY CONTRIBUTORY AUTHORS

Planning and Environment Department

Dr. Simon Bossy : Simon gained his Ph.D. from Portsmouth University and hasmore than 20 years experience in marine resource management. He is thehead of Fisheries and Marine Resources Section and holds responsibility forthe management of marine stocks within the 800 square miles of Jersey'sterritorial waters.

Colin Cheney : Colin is the Department's Hydrogeologist with extensive experience since trainingat at University College, London. He is a Chartered Geologist and a Fellow of the GeologicalSociety of London.

Dr. Tim Du Feu : Tim is Head of Water Resources in the Environmental Protection Team. He hasspent 15 years working for British and German intergovernmental technical aid projects mainly inAfrica. This included completing the first co-management plan for Kainji Reservoir in Nigeria. Timreturned to Jersey in 2000 to complete his Ph.D. in tropical reservoirs at Southampton and HullUniversity.

The ECO-ACTIVE Business Team : Consists of the Assistant Directors for Environmental Policy andthe Department's Education and Awareness Officer. The Eco-Active Business scheme aims toassist businesses improve environmental performance and is implemented in partnership with theJersey Enterprise a section of the Department for Economic Development.

Mike Freeman : Mike is principal ecologist for the Environmental Management and Rural Economyteam. He has extensive experience working as an ecologist since 1980 when his career began byleading on the first restoration project of its type in Jersey at les Mielles des Morville, St Ouen’s Bay,a large landfill site restored to dune – like habitat

Jersey Meteorology Department : Headed by Principal Meteorological Officer Tony Pallot, theteam of 16 staff record, observe and forecast the weather for the Channel Islands. They also holdresponsibility for the Island’s long term climate record and take a keen interest in climate research.Several sections were written and edited by Frank Le Blancq who is a forecaster in the Jersey MetDepartment and Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society. Over the years he has written avariety papers on climate and weather for a range of professional journals.

John Jackson : Qualifying in 1978, John taught in an Agricultural Further Education College for 16years before joining ADAS (Agricultural Development and Advisory Service) consultancy servicewith a portfolio of commercial farming clients. He joined the Jersey Agriculture and FisheriesDepartment in 1998 and is now an Agricultural Advisor specialising in farmed livestock. His roleincludes managing the Countryside Renewal Scheme (CRS) and the Rural Initiative Scheme (RIS).

James Le Ruez : James is a Project Officer within the Environment Department’s Policy andAwareness Division and was the primary author of this publication. Jersey born, James has BSc inOcean Science from the University of Plymouth and an MSc in Climate Change from the Universityof East Anglia.

Linda Lowseck : Linda graduated from the Royal (Dick) Vet Schools, Edinburgh and has 25 yearsexperience in States veterinary medicine including the control of notifiable diseases and zoonoses.She joined the Department in 2006 as the States of Jersey’s Veterinary Officer.

Dr. Louise Magris : Louise is Assistant Director for Environmental Policy and gained her Ph.D. inEcology from Queen Mary College, London in 1998. She moved into environmental policy in 2006leading on the development of an energy policy for Jersey and the ECO-ACTIVE programme.

Scott Meadows : Scott was Entomologist and Laboratory Manager for the Department for 11 yearspreviously studying entomology at Imperial College London. He is now Head of Plant Health,providing advice on the control of non-indigenous pests.

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Iain Norris: Iain graduated from Reading University in 1977 andjoined the Agricultural Development and Advisory Service. In 1993He joined the States of Jersey, Agriculture and Fisheriesdepartment as a Horticultural Consultant with a special interest inJersey Royal Potatoes, daffodils and brassicas. He helpeddevelop the Rural Economy Strategy in 2005 and is a Member ofthe Institute of Horticulture.

Steve Thompson: Steve joined the Department as a Scientific Officer in 2000 and becamePlant Pathologist in 2006 after completing his M.Sc. At Imperial College, London. In 2006. Hespecialises in plant disease diagnostics and control.

Economic Development Department

Jersey Tourism : Jersey Tourism is part of the Economic Development Department with theremit to market and promote Jersey as a tourist destination., enhance the tourism product,facilitate bookings and provide relevant information for potential and actual visitors to theIsland.

Health and Social Services Department

Health Protection : This section provides advice, guidance, legislative and administrativecontrol in order to maintain a safe and healthy environment for those living and visiting Jersey.

EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORY AUTHORS

The Environment Department would like to thank the following individuals and institutions fortheir contributions to this publication:

Dr. Andrew Casebow : Andrew is States Agriculture and Environment Adviser in Guernsey.Andrew is a graduate member of Magdalene College, Cambridge, and of the University'sGeography Department where he undertakes research on climate change and sustainableisland development. He and his family have loved living and working in the Channel Islands forover 20 years.

Chris Regan: Chris is a Marketing Communications Executive for the States of Guernsey. He iscurrently undertaking study with the Open University towards a BSc in Physical Science. Chriswas born in Guernsey where he lives with his family.

Prof. Nicholas McCave : Born in Guernsey Nicholas has been the Woodwardian Professor ofGeology at Cambridge University since 1985. A fellow of St John’s College and Head of theEarth Sciences Department from 1988-1998 his research interests include the deep circulationof the oceans in relation to climate change.

Dr. John Renouf : John was formerly curator of the Museum in Jersey. He trained as a geologistat London University and studied geology in Brittany for his doctorate. He now specialises inthe study of former sea levels and consults as a geologist on archaeological matters.

David Johns and Martin Edwards of The Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science(SAHFOS): SAHFOS is an international charity that operates the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR). The foundation has been collecting and interpreting data from the North Atlantic and the North Sea on biogeography and ecology of plankton since 1931.

N Mieszkowska, R Leaper, J Hill, A.J Southward and S.J Hawkins of the Marine BiologicalAssociation (MBA): The MBA is a Learned Society and one of the UK’s leading marinebiological research institutes. Their mission is to promote scientific research into all aspects oflife in the sea and to disseminate to the public the knowledge gained. Prof. Hawkins, NovaMieszkowska and Rebecca Leaper have been regular visitors to Jersey, Guernsey and theEnglish Channel Coastlines of England and France carrying out research on intertidal species.

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