chapter 6 trends analysis of shares …shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/9796/12/12...193...

193

CHAPTER 6

TRENDS ANALYSIS OF SHARES PRICES ON THE

BASIS OF OSCILLATORS

OSCILLATORS

The researcher is taking base ‘Oscillators’ for showing the trends of selected

companies. The Oscillators indicate the market momentum or scrip momentum.

Oscillator shows the share price movement across a reference point from one

extreme to another. The momentum indicates:

Over bought and oversold conditions of the scrip or the market.

Signaling the possible trend reversal

Rise or decline in the momentum.

Oscillation means a movement of certain item again on the same path with the same

frequency, like that of a pendulum in a wall clock. Oscillators indicate trend

reversals that have to be confirmed with the price movement of the scrip. Changes in

the price should be correlated to Changes in the momentum, and only buy and sell

signals can be generated. Actions have to be taken only when the price and

momentum agree with each other. With the daily, weekly or monthly closing prices

oscillators are built. For short term trading weekly prices are useful.

These Oscillators are fine tools to predict future movements much before such

movement take place, and thus leave a sufficient time gap to take decision on the

basis of these.

The prominent oscillators are following trend analysis of selected companies under

study with their monthly average closing stock prices.

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD)

Rate of Change (ROC)

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

194

Table 6.1 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of State Bank of India on the basis

of Oscillators (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012

Months

Monthly Closing

Prices (Rs.) MACD ROC RSI

Apr-05 597.34

May-05 599.74

Jun-05 636.08

Jul-05 684.93

Aug-05 751.04 13.50 0

Sep-05 835.27 23.54 1.40 0

Oct-05 847.22 32.61 1.41 93.21

Nov-05 831.85 26.20 1.31 92.28

Dec-05 853.2 1.21 1.25 88.95

Jan-06 859.34 -3.30 1.14 42.33

Feb-06 820.98 19.90 0.98 63.94

Mar-06 888.75 39.12 1.05 68.92

Apr-06 884.15 12.67 1.06 54.89

May-06 866.38 -18.69 1.02 24.70

Jun-06 720.56 -46.12 0.84 26.21

Jul-06 697.99 -74.01 0.85 39.03

Aug-06 820.12 -84.82 0.92 53.71

Sep-06 913.99 -31.63 1.03 62.84

Oct-06 982.75 44.77 1.13 94.99

Nov-06 1125.68 84.95 1.56 0.00

Dec-06 1195.48 86.92 1.71 86.06

Jan-07 1134.7 36.31 1.38 69.90

Feb-07 1074.28 -39.75 1.18 44.04

Mar-07 925.12 -99.58 0.94 29.56

Apr-07 968.77 -103.01 0.86 47.72

May-07 1171.92 -69.46 0.98 65.10

Jun-07 1316.04 -30.68 1.16 78.78

Jul-07 1478.82 -16.46 1.38 0.00

Aug-07 1483.03 -38.28 1.60 0.00

Sep-07 1621.69 -19.03 1.67 0.00

Oct-07 1789.89 21.79 1.53 0.00

Nov-07 2121.58 127.05 1.61 0.00

Dec-07 2233.85 211.80 1.51 0.00

Jan-08 2245.49 184.38 1.51 88.39

Feb-08 2163.54 135.27 1.33 47.46

Mar-08 1741.18 74.45 0.97 18.28

Apr-08 1691.37 -42.89 0.80 1.89

May-08 1642.18 -141.59 0.74 0.00

195

Jun-08 1289.29 -99.98 0.57 0.00

Jul-08 1272.25 -25.23 0.59 28.20

Aug-08 1456.46 -22.97 0.84 36.95

Sep-08 1517.85 11.95 0.90 31.70

Oct-08 1358.51 60.07 0.83 40.79

Nov-08 1178.45 37.55 0.91 44.97

Dec-09 1210.19 -41.46 0.95 20.02

Jan-09 1177.62 -123.21 0.81 6.56

Feb-09 1097.4 -139.04 0.72 7.35

Mar-09 990.04 -110.56 0.73 54.92

Apr-09 1226.55 -52.92 1.04 71.00

May-09 1528.95 -22.65 1.26 80.14

Jun-09 1746.85 -3.58 1.48 80.94

Jul-09 1676.03 15.59 1.53 91.53

Aug-09 1684.31 21.65 1.70 92.08

Sep-09 1979.25 23.20 1.61 91.84

Oct-09 2255.72 91.53 1.48 89.50

Nov-09 2279.71 155.91 1.31 94.37

Dec-09 2243.69 94.80 1.34 84.65

Jan-10 2171.74 -11.15 1.29 46.62

Feb-10 1935.74 -75.43 0.98 27.90

Mar-10 2044.83 -89.15 0.91 38.12

Apr-10 2147.68 -110.89 0.94 51.16

May-10 2258.3 -105.41 1.01 61.96

Jun-10 2320.08 -81.24 1.07 0.00

Jul-10 2405.46 -33.82 1.24 0.00

Aug-10 2742.42 71.53 1.34 0.00

Sep-10 3039.86 178.22 1.42 0.00

Oct-10 3209.87 215.30 1.42 90.36

Nov-10 3114.94 152.65 1.34 66.77

Dec-10 2809.5 29.74 1.17 44.14

Jan-11 2618.2 -48.17 0.95 25.61

Feb-11 2651.84 -22.40 0.87 6.65

Mar-11 2660.36 -8.62 0.83 28.19

Apr-11 2813.17 29.06 0.90 26.17

May-11 2454.52 83.56 0.87 26.23

Jun-11 2264.7 64.08 0.86 38.51

Jul-11 2446.88 -12.52 0.92 28.13

Aug-11 2139.52 -29.06 0.80 14.84

Sep-11 1950.08 -14.63 0.69 18.92

Oct-11 1855.99 -130.56 0.76 21.65

Nov-11 1787.73 -185.88 0.79 0.00

Dec-11 1731.85 -105.21 0.71 18.55

Jan-12 1824.72 -18.48 0.85 68.70

196

Feb-12 2210.86 41.56 1.13 68.70

Mar-12 2195.93

1.18 77.50

Apr-12 2190.28 1.23 86.24

May-12 1970.83 1.14 66.62

Jun-12 2134.32 1.17 69.60

Source: Researcher Calculation

Note: Monthly Average Closing Prices have been taken

Table 6.1 reveals the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of State Bank of

India Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to

June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend

analysis in the following terms:

1. Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD)

2. Rate of Change (ROC)

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)


(a) On the following instances MACD touched its extreme/peak during the study

period: October 2005, March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, October 2008,

November 2009, October 2010 and May 2011.

(b) On the following instances MACD touched its bottom/nadir during the study

period : January 2006, August 2006, April 2007, May 2008, February 2009, April

2010, January 2011, August 2011 and November 2011.

(c) During the following periods MACD moved above zero but was falling and

giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to April 2006, December 2006 to

January 2007, December 2007 to March 2008, October 2008 to November 2008,

November 2009 to December 2009 and October 2010 to December 2011.

(d) During the following periods MACD moved below zero but was raising and

giving signal of bullish market August 2006 to September 2006, April 2007 to July

2007, August 2007 to September 2007, June 2008 to August 2008, February 2009 to

June 2009, April 2010 to July 2010, January 2011 to March 2011 and November

2011 to January 2012.

197


(a) On the following instances ROC touched its extreme/ peak during the study

period: October 2005, April 2006, December 2006, September 2007, November

2007, August 2009, December 2009, September 2010, October 2010 and April

2012.

(b) During the following internals ROC declined from its extreme towards one mark

which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: October 2005, April

2006, December 2006, September 2007, November 2007, August 2009, December

2009, September 2010, October 2010 and April 2012.

(c) During the following intervals ROC increased from one mark towards its peak

which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: September 2006 to

December 2006, June 2007 to September 2007, April 2009 to August 2009 and May

2010 to October 2010.

(d) On the following instances ROC touched its bottom/nadir during the study

period: June 2006, April 2007, June 2008, October 2008, February 2009, March

2010, March 2011, June 2011, September 2011 and December 2011.


(a) Overbought market for the scrip: The market is said to be overbought when RSI

crossed 70-mark from downwards. The RSI of the company’s scrip crossed the 70-

mark on the following instances: October 2005, October 2006, December 2006, June

2007, January 2008, April 2009, May 2009, June 2009 July 2009, August 2009,

November 2009, October 2010, March 2012 and April 2012.

(b) Oversold market for the scrip: The market is said to be oversold when RSI

crossed 30-mark from upwards. The RSI of the company’s scrip crossed the 30-

mark on the following instances: March 2007, March 2008, April 2008, July 2008,

December 2008, January 2009, February 2010, January 2011, February 2011, April

2011, July 2011, August 2011 and December 2011.

198

(c) During the following periods the RSI moved downwards in the 70-30 zones and

gave bearish market: March 2006 to April 2006, January 2007 to February 2007,

November 2010 and December 2011.

(d) During the following periods the RSI moved upwards in the 30-70 zones and

gave bullish market: January 2006 to March 2007, July 2006 to September 2007,

April 2007 to May 2007, August 2008 to November 2008 and April 2010 to May

2010.

Table 6.2 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of HDFC Ltd. on the basis of

Oscillators (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012

Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 143.74

May-05 150.96

Jun-05 165.65

Jul-05 179.93

Aug-05 182.69 -1.04 0.00

Sep-05 195.36 -2.98 1.36 0.00

Oct-05 194.44 -4.95 1.29 97.96

Nov-05 212.93 -3.34 1.29 98.12

Dec-05 236.21 2.73 1.31 98.41

Jan-06 246.24 8.86 1.35 98.59

Feb-06 270.07 15.61 1.38 98.80

Mar-06 265.50 15.64 1.37 94.30

Apr-06 259.82 5.68 1.22 84.79

May-06 255.39 -6.86 1.08 69.75

Jun-06 219.03 -14.36 0.89 31.83

Jul-06 228.71 -16.31 0.85 15.94

Aug-06 253.58 -14.42 0.96 42.65

Sep-06 274.57 -2.09 1.06 57.66

Oct-06 292.36 5.77 1.14 66.85

Nov-06 314.13 9.10 1.43 0.00

Dec-06 315.05 12.16 1.38 0.00

Jan-07 320.00 5.29 1.26 0.00

Feb-07 340.10 -4.11 1.24 0.00

Mar-07 308.62 -9.32 1.06 60.26

Apr-07 319.10 -8.17 1.02 53.65

May-07 344.65 -12.58 1.09 65.99

Jun-07 368.16 -17.29 1.15 71.67

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Jul-07 392.50 -12.32 1.15 72.71

Aug-07 390.45 -9.02 1.27 97.62

Sep-07 449.07 -5.56 1.41 98.48

Oct-07 509.74 7.31 1.48 98.79

Nov-07 529.30 30.02 1.44 98.76

Dec-07 576.02 40.20 1.47 98.91

Jan-08 578.03 22.69 1.48 0.00

Feb-08 559.15 16.75 1.25 87.23

Mar-08 501.49 18.82 0.98 47.15

Apr-08 498.95 -1.07 0.94 38.12

May-08 533.22 -15.95 0.93 31.45

Jun-08 447.87 2.64 0.77 17.25

Jul-08 414.09 20.02 0.74 16.05

Aug-08 474.02 7.79 0.95 43.64

Sep-08 448.80 2.03 0.90 39.49

Oct-08 361.30 7.59 0.68 20.54

Nov-08 312.44 -6.70 0.70 23.48

Dec-08 302.14 -32.30 0.73 25.85

Jan-09 307.02 -41.38 0.65 2.76

Feb-09 281.67 -37.33 0.63 2.76

Mar-09 275.90 -30.52 0.76 5.14

Apr-09 343.68 -17.11 1.10 63.69

May-09 402.00 -0.87 1.33 80.80

Jun-09 468.52 13.85 1.53 86.09

Jul-09 479.78 17.88 1.70 97.25

Aug-09 482.44 17.88 1.75 0.00

Sep-09 512.56 16.22 1.49 0.00

Oct-09 546.33 17.89 1.36 0.00

Nov-09 549.44 15.38 1.17 0.00

Dec-09 535.69 2.14 1.12 83.51

Jan-10 504.28 -8.53 1.05 59.73

Feb-10 487.63 -14.01 0.95 37.37

Mar-10 530.41 -16.67 0.97 42.61

Apr-10 554.03 -10.94 1.01 51.79

May-10 549.80 -5.48 1.03 55.94

Jun-10 570.12 -11.96 1.13 80.60

Jul-10 595.73 -11.10 1.22 96.37

Aug-10 616.39 3.81 1.16 95.52

Sep-10 681.09 18.46 1.23 96.88

Oct-10 717.36 30.43 1.30 0.00

Nov-10 708.62 31.30 1.24 94.39

Dec-10 697.80 7.58 1.17 86.15

Jan-11 671.52 -8.13 1.09 68.78

Feb-11 625.73 -5.79 0.92 28.36

200

Mar-11 661.53 -12.06 0.92 28.09

Apr-11 709.64 -8.32 1.00 50.30

May-11 657.21 11.89 0.94 40.26

Jun-11 661.84 12.56 0.99 47.41

Jul-11 700.79 -2.19 1.12 70.86

Aug-11 657.50 -0.86 0.99 48.93

Sep-11 651.01 0.57 0.92 29.89

Oct-11 658.26 -13.30 1.00 50.52

Nov-11 652.98 -8.92 0.99 45.62

Dec-11 651.43 1.94 0.93 11.35

Jan-12 680.85 3.93 1.04 73.35

Feb-12 693.20 9.54 1.06 87.77

Mar-12 664.46 1.01 54.01

Apr-12 678.90 1.04 64.99

May-12 650.84 1.00 49.74

Jun-12 647.15 0.95 30.69



Table 6.2 portrays the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Housing

Development Finance Corporation Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’

(monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is

taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend analysis in the following terms:






period: March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, March 2008, July 2008,

October 2008, July 2009, October 2009, November 2010, June 2011 and January

2012.

( b) On the following instances MACD touched its bottom/nadir during the study

period: October 2005, July 2006, June 2007, May 2008, January 2009, March 2010,

June 2010, January 2011, March 2011, July 2011 and October 2011.

201



February 2008, October 2009 to December 2009 and November 2010 to December

2010.


giving signal of bullish market from October 2005 to November 2005, July 2006 to

September 2006, June 2007 to September 2007, January 2009 to May 2009, March

2010 to May 2010, June 2010 to July 2010 and March 2011 to April 2011.



period: September 2005, February 2006, November 2006, October 2007, January

2008, August 2009, July 2010, October 2010, July 2011, October 2011, February

2012 and April 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: September 2005 to

October 2005, February 2006 to May 2006, January 2008 to February 2008, October

2010 to November 2010, February 2012 to March 2012 and April 2012 to May

2012.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: November 2005 to

February 2006, September 2006 to November 2007, April 2007 to October 2007,

November 2007 to January 2008, April 2009 to August 2009, April 2010 to July

2010, August 2010 to October 2010, January 2012 to February 2012 and March

2012 to April 2012.


period: July 2006, July 2008, October 2008, February 2009, March 2011, May

2011, September 2011 and December 2011.

202




mark on the following instances: November 2005, December 2005, January 2006,

February 2006, June 2007, July 2007, August 2007, September 2007, October 2007,

December 2007, February 2008, May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, December 2009,

June 2010, July 2010, September 2010, November 2010, July 2011, January 2012,

and February 2012.



mark on the following instances: July 2006, June 2008, July 2008, October 2008,

January 2009, February 2009, February 2011, March 2011, September 2011 and

December 2011.


gave bearish market: March 2008 to April 2008, January 2010 to February 2010,

August 2011 to September 2011, October 2011 to November 2011 and April 2012 to

May 2012.


gave bullish market: August 2006 to October 2006, April 2007 to May 2007,

February 2010 to May 2010, September 2011 to October 2011 and March 2012 to

April 2012.

Table 6.3 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. on

the basis of Oscillators (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012

Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 417.65

May-05 442.34

Jun-05 455.78

Jul-05 460.07

Aug-05 480.75 -10.35 0.00

Sep-05 538.43 -13.46 1.29 0.00

203

Oct-05 556.24 -14.27 1.26 0.00

Nov-05 589.59 -19.61 1.29 0.00

Dec-05 636.59 -22.00 1.38 0.00

Jan-06 686.47 -0.95 1.43 0.00

Feb-06 767.40 37.60 1.43 0.00

Mar-06 874.13 58.91 1.57 0.00

Apr-06 893.73 44.37 1.52 0.00

May-06 863.46 12.78 1.36 89.47

Jun-06 739.00 -28.48 1.08 57.26

Jul-06 772.76 -38.01 1.01 50.85

Aug-06 815.07 -25.94 0.93 38.21

Sep-06 930.47 6.65 1.04 55.31

Oct-06 951.55 31.91 1.10 63.07

Nov-06 919.30 46.79 1.24 86.83

Dec-06 924.05 42.11 1.20 85.05

Jan-07 924.95 12.95 1.13 81.51

Feb-07 908.46 3.53 0.98 35.42

Mar-07 802.85 -4.37 0.84 3.53

Apr-07 775.26 -26.63 0.84 3.64

May-07 809.84 -43.24 0.88 19.16

Jun-07 755.98 -60.39 0.82 14.52

Jul-07 817.12 -43.20 0.90 33.85

Aug-07 815.49 -9.15 1.02 53.53

Sep-07 909.12 26.64 1.17 77.34

Oct-07 1102.04 66.36 1.36 86.24

Nov-07 994.69 68.80 1.32 76.14

Dec-07 1022.39 58.11 1.25 74.25

Jan-08 882.84 12.23 1.08 56.00

Feb-08 821.84 -14.96 0.90 41.74

Mar-08 855.19 -4.98 0.78 16.55

Apr-08 756.25 3.03 0.76 16.93

May-08 784.11 -8.21 0.77 16.97

Jun-08 724.63 -24.75 0.82 21.81

Jul-08 583.27 -7.59 0.71 16.96

Aug-08 637.82 2.37 0.75 21.56

Sep-08 694.16 -9.56 0.92 40.86

Oct-08 640.40 -6.54 0.82 30.34

Nov-08 555.66 -20.77 0.77 28.38

Dec-09 506.85 -60.96 0.87 37.19

Jan-09 559.47 -76.82 0.88 36.78

Feb-09 619.38 -67.14 0.89 37.53

Mar-09 711.71 -48.40 1.11 60.54

Apr-09 810.32 -37.66 1.46 86.14

May-09 908.96 -39.80 1.79 0.00

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Jun-09 1065.45 -13.91 1.90 0.00

Jul-09 1195.55 36.74 1.93 0.00

Aug-09 1369.73 61.12 1.92 0.00

Sep-09 1563.24 81.81 1.93 0.00

Oct-09 1510.87 106.53 1.66 92.59

Nov-09 1518.77 78.84 1.43 90.62

Dec-09 1575.74 23.03 1.32 89.20

Jan-10 1440.10 22.56 1.05 57.88

Feb-10 1370.79 12.71 0.88 20.13

Mar-10 1441.36 -34.16 0.95 39.79

Apr-10 1351.42 -20.25 0.89 30.19

May-10 1248.88 -3.43 0.79 15.08

Jun-10 1350.62 -53.38 0.94 39.69

Jul-10 1344.34 -56.88 0.98 46.44

Aug-10 1232.51 -0.16 0.86 24.67

Sep-10 1376.77 23.75 1.02 52.72

Oct-10 1513.69 41.72 1.21 76.43

Nov-10 1447.92 70.80 1.07 60.46

Dec-10 1407.58 42.17 1.05 56.34

Jan-11 1311.36 -14.08 1.06 58.15

Feb-11 1201.00 -25.70 0.87 30.45

Mar-11 1230.84 -23.23 0.81 8.71

Apr-11 1285.55 -17.72 0.89 25.51

May-11 1229.66 10.51 0.87 24.36

Jun-11 1189.11 24.64 0.91 29.02

Jul-11 1171.20 7.79 0.98 42.51

Aug-11 1178.23 10.14 0.96 35.06

Sep-11 1099.94 2.08 0.86 3.52

Oct-11 1089.42 -45.08 0.89 4.56

Nov-11 1018.61 -86.32 0.86 3.81

Dec-11 957.21 -71.82 0.82 3.08

Jan-12 1051.25 -26.83 0.89 29.85

Feb-12 1268.89 37.69 1.15 68.59

Mar-12 1331.69 1.22 73.91

Apr-12 1344.80 1.32 86.32

May-12 1209.42 1.26 74.11

Jun-12 1106.4 1.05 55.18



Table 6.3 portrays the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Maruti

Suzuki India Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April,

205

2005 to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend







period: March 2006, November 2006, November 2007, October 2009, November

2010 and June 2011.


period : December 2005, July 2006, June 2007, June 2008, September 2008, January

2009, May 2009, March 2010, July 2010, February 2011 and December 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to May2006, November 2006 to

February 2007, November 2007 to January 2008, October 2009 to February 2010,

November 2010 to December 2010 and June 2011 to July 2011.

(d) During the following periods MACD moved below zero but was rising and

giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to June 2006, July 2006 to Aug

2006, June2007 to August 2007, January 2009 to April 2009, May 2009 to June

2009, February 2011 to April 2011 and December 2011 to June 2012.



period: March 2006, November 2006, October 2007, September 2009, October

2010, and April2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to July

206

2006, November 2006 to January 2007, October 2007 to January 2008, September

2009 to January 2010, and October 2010 o December 2010.



November 2006, August 2007 to October 2007, March 2009 to September 2009 and

February 2012 to April 2012.


period: August 2006, June 2007, April 2008, July 2008, November 2008, February

2010, May 2010, August 2010, March 2011, May 2011, September 2011, and

December 2011.




mark on the following instances: May2006, November 2006, September 2007,

October2007, April 2009, October 2009, October 2010, March 2012 and April 2012.



mark on the following instances: March 2007, June 2007, March 2008, July 2008,

November 2008, May 2010, August 2010, May 2011, November 2011 and

December 2011.

(c) During the following periods the RSI moved downwards in the 70-30 zone and

gave bearish market: September 2008 to October 2008, and November 2010 to

December 2010.


gave bullish market: August 2006 to October 2006, January 2009 to March 2009 and

January 2012 to February 2012.

207

Table 6.4 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Infosys Ltd. on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing

Price (Rs.) MACD ROC RSI

Apr-05 1021.77

May-05 1042.94

Jun-05 1142.02

Jul-05 1132.50

Aug-05 1147.90 -13.79 93.44

Sep-05 1221.14 -21.37 1.20 95.64

Oct-05 1280.05 2.85 1.23 96.28

Nov-05 1339.27 27.56 1.17 95.60

Dec-05 1459.02 48.17 1.29 0.00

Jan-06 1445.00 39.45 1.26 95.69

Feb-06 1412.70 7.56 1.16 83.70

Mar-06 1454.47 -13.67 1.14 82.66

Apr-06 1291.81 -62.62 0.96 43.60

May-06 1540.31 -61.64 1.06 58.14

Jun-06 1422.73 -66.98 0.98 48.15

Jul-06 1617.43 -45.77 1.14 63.38

Aug-06 1739.77 -35.87 1.20 66.87

Sep-06 1818.65 9.06 1.41 84.57

Oct-06 2006.66 43.12 1.30 83.24

Nov-06 2170.06 69.05 1.53 0.00

Dec-06 2204.88 117.52 1.36 0.00

Jan-07 2232.58 105.00 1.28 0.00

Feb-07 2291.17 62.08 1.26 0.00

Mar-07 2076.41 21.28 1.03 56.99

Apr-07 2031.80 -1.54 0.94 31.83

May-07 1977.96 -26.63 0.90 21.60

Jun-07 1956.10 -31.92 0.88 14.88

Jul-07 1965.41 0.22 0.86 2.70

Aug-07 1877.74 31.40 0.90 4.28

Sep-07 1844.33 26.88 0.91 4.52

Oct-07 1922.58 17.75 0.97 37.99

Nov-07 1664.47 11.81 0.85 18.76

Dec-07 1696.06 1.75 0.86 22.46

Jan-08 1547.60 -95.78 0.82 19.98

Feb-08 1575.28 -116.25 0.85 25.28

Mar-08 1415.34 -55.86 0.74 9.47

Apr-08 1571.65 4.79 0.94 41.14

May-08 1842.43 27.08 1.09 59.59

Jun-08 1861.53 107.37 1.20 74.77

208

Jul-08 1642.56 153.63 1.04 54.08

Aug-08 1683.65 75.81 1.19 69.00

Sep-08 1616.59 -10.20 1.03 53.64

Oct-08 1307.94 -41.61 0.71 9.19

Nov-08 1239.78 -67.87 0.67 5.84

Dec-08 1153.65 -116.38 0.70 7.20

Jan-09 1226.62 -110.34 0.73 12.10

Feb-09 1245.09 -89.55 0.77 16.49

Mar-09 1275.18 -68.17 0.97 44.06

Apr-09 1410.46 -58.10 1.14 74.88

May-09 1570.32 -57.37 1.36 0.00

Jun-09 1736.75 -10.97 1.42 0.00

Jul-09 1865.45 38.88 1.50 0.00

Aug-09 2067.45 36.70 1.62 0.00

Sep-09 2263.74 25.37 1.60 0.00

Oct-09 2235.10 47.77 1.42 96.03

Nov-09 2332.31 43.93 1.34 95.61

Dec-09 2491.37 -4.09 1.34 95.81

Jan-10 2584.49 25.55 1.25 95.01

Feb-10 2495.37 50.11 1.10 74.79

Mar-10 2701.94 18.32 1.21 86.18

Apr-10 2714.60 -3.17 1.16 84.10

May-10 2640.99 5.22 1.06 65.75

Jun-10 2730.83 -30.12 1.06 65.51

Jul-10 2790.54 -43.12 1.12 83.36

Aug-10 2789.10 -20.87 1.03 68.37

Sep-10 2947.18 -26.66 1.09 80.39

Oct-10 3059.48 17.00 1.16 99.66

Nov-10 3030.94 83.60 1.11 91.67

Dec-10 3254.96 79.43 1.17 94.28

Jan-11 3306.96 73.33 1.19 95.04

Feb-11 3084.04 95.12 1.05 60.70

Mar-11 3063.54 39.78 1.00 50.37

Apr-11 3074.41 11.82 1.01 54.10

May-11 2851.31 60.20 0.88 11.88

Jun-11 2829.32 1.60 0.86 2.18

Jul-11 2830.97 -102.09 0.92 4.50

Aug-11 2422.81 -98.45 0.79 1.88

Sep-11 2364.01 -77.33 0.77 0.23

Oct-11 2681.08 -97.58 0.94 39.46

Nov-11 2738.51 -40.17 0.97 44.61

Dec-11 2724.36 88.43 0.96 43.77

Jan-12 2720.91 125.81 1.12 83.06

Feb-12 2841.67 74.40 1.20 96.57

209

Mar-12 2849.22 1.06 91.34

Apr-12 2533.27 0.93 27.78

May-12 2389.09 0.88 21.68

Jun-12 2457.3 0.90 29.93



Table 6.4 shows the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Infosys Ltd.

Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June,

2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend analysis in

the following terms:






period : December 2005, December 2006, August 2007, July 2008, July 2009,

October 2009, February 2010, November 2010, February 2011 and May 2011.


period: September 2005, June 2006, June 2007, February 2008, December 2009,

April 2010, July 2010, September 2010, July 2011, and October 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from December 2005 to February 2006, December

2006 to March 2007, August 2007 to December 2007, and May 2011 to June 2011.

(d) During the following periods MACD moved below zero but was rising and

giving signal of bullish market from April 2006 to May 2006, June 2006 to August

2006, December 2008 to June 2009 and October 2011 to November 2011.



period: October 2005, December 2005, September 2006, November 2006, June

210

2008, August 2008, August 2009, October 2009, March 2010, July 2010, October

2010, January 2010, April 2011 and February 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: July 2006, to

September, April 2009 to August 2009, May 2010 to July 2010 and August 2010 to

October 2010.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: July 2006 to

September 2006, April 2009 to August 2009, May 2010 to July 2010 and August

2010 to October 2010.


period: June 2006, July 2007, November 2007, January 2008, March 2008,

November 2008, September 2011 and May 2012.




mark on the following instances: August 2005, September 2005, October 2005,

September 2006, June2008,April2009, October 2009, December 2009, March 2010,

September 2010, October 2010, December 2010, January 2011, January 2012 and

February 2012.



mark on the following instances: May 2007, June 2007, July 2007, November 2007,

January 2008, March 2008, October 2008, November 2008, May 2011, June 2011,

August 2011, September 2011, April 2012, and May 2012.

(c) During the following periods the RSI moved downwards in the 70-30 zone and

gave bearish market: May 2006 to June 2006, August 2008 to September 2008 and

February 2011 to March 2011.

211

(d) During the following periods the RSI moved upwards in the 30-70 zone and gave

bullish market: April 2006 to May 2006, June 2006 to August 2006, July 2008 to

August 2008, and October 2011 to November 2011.

Table 6.5 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Tata Steel Ltd. on the basis of

oscillators (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012

Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 327.48

May-05 314.98

Jun-05 306.59

Jul-05 320.66

Aug-05 344.77 6.11 64.64

Sep-05 364.46 7.36 1.11 73.48

Oct-05 332.48 3.48 1.06 58.91

Nov-05 314.02 -12.31 1.02 53.43

Dec-05 323.69 -37.50 1.01 51.46

Jan-06 329.65 -38.74 0.96 41.18

Feb-06 355.35 -1.53 0.98 45.04

Mar-06 421.48 24.02 1.27 85.34

Apr-06 530.91 26.47 1.69 0.00

May-06 516.12 31.22 1.59 93.34

Jun-06 420.00 24.05 1.27 64.47

Jul-06 448.89 -0.43 1.26 64.83

Aug-06 454.66 -12.04 1.08 56.51

Sep-06 449.26 2.10 0.85 22.96

Oct-06 453.91 7.85 0.88 27.91

Nov-06 428.72 4.80 1.02 56.24

Dec-06 413.98 -5.11 0.92 18.69

Jan-07 419.36 -27.34 0.92 18.12

Feb-07 401.53 -32.23 0.89 14.80

Mar-07 383.88 -24.06 0.85 6.66

Apr-07 452.21 -13.85 1.05 59.48

May-07 528.69 -2.42 1.28 80.89

Jun-07 535.56 -10.92 1.28 81.04

Jul-07 586.81 -21.75 1.46 92.00

Aug-07 546.03 -23.05 1.42 83.27

Sep-07 644.54 -0.68 1.43 85.11

Oct-07 787.74 25.35 1.49 88.03

Nov-07 845.18 58.20 1.58 89.58

Dec-07 861.88 72.04 1.47 88.57

Jan-08 808.21 21.15 1.48 85.48

Feb-08 789.53 -21.13 1.22 75.03

212

Mar-08 711.86 -4.22 0.90 33.07

Apr-08 723.21 20.39 0.86 15.75

May-08 867.51 30.75 1.01 50.92

Jun-08 805.45 71.50 1.00 49.56

Jul-08 645.72 96.51 0.82 34.20

Aug-08 618.76 33.96 0.87 38.49

Sep-08 509.73 -33.34 0.70 99.46

Oct-08 273.86 -44.64 0.32 0.00

Nov-08 180.26 -57.77 0.22 0.00

Dec-09 206.18 -80.31 0.32 5.27

Jan-09 203.57 -66.54 0.33 5.55

Feb-09 178.03 -43.25 0.35 6.76

Mar-09 176.30 -35.24 0.64 17.35

Apr-09 251.52 -20.69 1.40 77.19

May-09 319.26 -5.60 1.55 82.71

Jun-09 428.32 13.69 2.10 90.24

Jul-09 405.35 20.54 2.28 91.07

Aug-09 453.86 18.36 2.57 92.90

Sep-09 479.57 -3.90 1.91 91.62

Oct-09 529.53 2.99 1.66 91.03

Nov-09 526.91 16.24 1.23 82.91

Dec-09 574.40 3.79 1.42 98.50

Jan-10 629.31 13.31 1.39 98.55

Feb-10 561.51 40.53 1.17 68.39

Mar-10 624.92 36.00 1.18 70.19

Apr-10 664.90 6.99 1.26 75.22

May-10 539.89 -6.80 0.94 45.09

Jun-10 482.93 -27.51 0.77 29.28

Jul-10 508.22 -45.71 0.91 41.42

Aug-10 524.52 -29.18 0.84 30.95

Sep-10 602.53 -1.60 0.91 39.66

Oct-10 634.99 17.05 1.18 72.75

Nov-10 613.04 28.44 1.27 87.39

Dec-10 647.35 19.39 1.27 88.01

Jan-11 650.90 7.50 1.24 87.11

Feb-11 622.48 13.26 1.03 58.26

Mar-11 607.87 6.10 0.96 36.81

Apr-11 625.54 4.27 1.02 56.34

May-11 582.75 17.29 0.90 19.82

Jun-11 573.15 17.46 0.88 15.62

Jul-11 583.23 7.31 0.94 29.29

Aug-11 489.49 4.10 0.81 15.96

Sep-11 459.54 -2.92 0.73 5.41

Oct-11 436.29 -32.50 0.75 6.05

213

Nov-11 415.04 -36.34 0.72 5.65

Dec-11 373.11 -20.72 0.64 0.00

Jan-12 404.13 -8.91 0.83 21.04

Feb-12 470.74 5.59 1.02 53.04

Mar-12 454.10 1.04 55.02

Apr-12 462.76 1.11 64.47

May-12 415.26 1.11 62.37

Jun-12 414.99 1.03 53.99



Table 6.5 depicts the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Tata Steel

Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June,








period: September 2005, May 2006, October 2006, December 2007, July 2009,

November 2009, February 2010, November 2010, February 2010, and June 2011.


period: January 2006, August 2006, February 2007, August 2007, February 2008,

December 2009, July 2010 and November 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from September 2006 to October 2006, May 2006

to June 2006, October 2006 to November 2006, December 2007 to January 2008,

July 2008 to August 2008 and June 2011 to August 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from January 2006 to February 2006, February 2007

214

to May 2007, August 2007 to September 2007, December 2009 to May 2009 and

July 2010 to September 2010.



period: September 2005, April 2006, July 2007, November 2007, January 2008,

August 2009, December 2009, April 2010, December 2010, April 2011 and April

2012



December 2005, April 2006 to August 2006 and January 2008 to February 2008 and

December 2010 to February 2011.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to April

2006, April 2007 to July 2007, August 2007 to November 2007 and September 2010

to December 2010.


period: January 2006, September 2006, March 2007, April 2008, July 2008,

November 2008, June 2010, August 2010, June 2011, September 2011 and

December 2011.




mark on the following instances: September 2005, March 2006, May 2006, May

2007, June 2007, July 2007, September 2007, October 2007, November 2007, April

2009, May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, August 2009, December 2009, January

2010, October 2010, November 2010 and December 2010.



mark on the following instances: September 2006, December 2006, January 2007,

215

February 2007, March 2007, April 2008, December 2009, June 2010, May 2011,

June 2011, August 2011, September 2011, and November 2011.


gave bearish market: October 2005 to June 2006, May 2008 to July 2008 and



gave bullish market: January 2006 to February 2006, August 2010 to September

2010 and March 2011 to April 2011.

Table 6.6 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Tata Motors Ltd. on the basis


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 82.25

May-05 84.07

Jun-05 82.92

Jul-05 88.75

Aug-05 94.24 -1.51 91.95

Sep-05 99.80 -2.42 1.21 94.21

Oct-05 101.56 -3.71 1.21 94.19

Nov-05 102.94 -7.48 1.24 0.00

Dec-05 118.12 -8.14 1.33 0.00

Jan-06 126.52 -2.13 1.34 0.00

Feb-06 148.51 8.76 1.49 0.00

Mar-06 174.94 14.98 1.72 0.00

Apr-06 182.42 12.60 1.77 0.00

May-06 172.24 6.05 1.46 86.33

Jun-06 144.86 -2.47 1.14 59.81

Jul-06 142.92 -6.66 0.96 46.19

Aug-06 157.38 -6.03 0.90 35.71

Sep-06 167.01 -3.12 0.92 37.88

Oct-06 171.63 2.38 1.00 49.47

Nov-06 158.49 6.87 1.09 65.56

Dec-06 168.18 7.48 1.18 74.51

Jan-07 180.72 4.24 1.15 73.52

Feb-07 168.21 4.53 1.01 51.15

Mar-07 146.45 2.48 0.85 31.92

Apr-07 139.68 -4.17 0.88 35.13

216

May-07 141.14 -6.24 0.84 25.43

Jun-07 130.55 -6.89 0.72 2.75

Jul-07 141.43 -3.75 0.84 23.98

Aug-07 128.05 -1.00 0.87 28.65

Sep-07 138.56 0.20 0.99 48.80

Oct-07 153.43 0.84 1.09 60.19

Nov-07 138.01 4.06 1.06 55.73

Dec-07 143.78 6.42 1.02 51.96

Jan-08 142.30 1.29 1.11 64.83

Feb-08 139.59 2.56 1.01 51.29

Mar-08 127.24 7.48 0.83 15.29

Apr-08 122.06 4.84 0.88 20.99

May-08 127.12 -0.21 0.88 18.89

Jun-08 98.34 1.16 0.69 9.36

Jul-08 79.20 5.01 0.57 7.18

Aug-08 82.63 0.16 0.65 13.78

Sep-08 80.56 -3.37 0.66 14.51

Oct-08 49.68 -1.84 0.39 4.07

Nov-08 30.17 -4.76 0.31 4.57

Dec-08 31.51 -11.79 0.40 8.33

Jan-09 31.16 -12.82 0.38 2.48

Feb-09 27.49 -8.24 0.34 2.40

Mar-09 32.02 -4.15 0.64 19.97

Apr-09 46.89 -3.15 1.55 83.76

May-09 60.11 -4.92 1.91 89.03

Jun-09 69.42 -2.33 2.23 91.95

Jul-09 64.44 0.41 2.34 89.38

Aug-09 90.02 -1.81 2.81 92.67

Sep-09 113.95 -3.13 2.43 93.53

Oct-09 112.25 4.41 1.87 89.80

Nov-09 123.50 8.19 1.78 90.10

Dec-09 145.83 2.40 2.26 98.00

Jan-10 156.11 3.69 1.73 97.55

Feb-10 138.75 6.79 1.22 69.72

Mar-10 154.42 3.05 1.38 77.43

Apr-10 161.17 -5.22 1.30 76.03

May-10 154.34 -7.85 1.06 57.48

Jun-10 153.83 -8.35 0.99 47.58

Jul-10 161.19 -10.37 1.16 80.22

Aug-10 193.87 -6.92 1.26 86.44

Sep-10 209.92 2.36 1.30 88.43

Oct-10 231.60 14.33 1.50 99.35

Nov-10 244.63 14.92 1.59 0.00

Dec-10 262.50 8.93 1.63 0.00

217

Jan-11 241.05 5.04 1.24 76.20

Feb-11 228.96 7.20 1.09 61.05

Mar-11 233.44 4.48 1.01 51.33

Apr-11 249.36 5.41 1.02 53.29

May-11 232.18 11.99 0.88 28.68

Jun-11 199.05 4.43 0.83 24.64

Jul-11 201.51 -9.14 0.88 31.25

Aug-11 160.62 -14.20 0.69 16.78

Sep-11 153.84 -14.12 0.62 2.46

Oct-11 178.05 -21.46 0.77 24.82

Nov-11 179.16 -19.48 0.90 36.83

Dec-11 181.60 -8.65 0.90 36.80

Jan-12 212.84 -2.31 1.33 89.69

Feb-12 262.38 12.38 1.71 0.00

Mar-12 275.25 1.55 0.00

Apr-12 299.38 1.67 0.00

May-12 278.48 1.53 84.92

Jun-12 238.01 1.12 58.51



Table 6.6 reveals the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Tata Motors









period: March 2006, December 2006, February 2007, December 2007, March 2008,

July 2008, July 2009, November 2009, February 2010, November 2010 and May

2011.


period: December 2005, July 2006, June 2007, May 2008, September 2008, January

218

2009, March 2009, May 2009, September 2009, July 2010, August 2011 and

October 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to May 2006, February 2007 to

March 2007, December 2007 to January 2008, March 2008 to April 2008,

November 2010 to January 2011, May 2011 to June 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to January 2006, July 2006 to

September 2006, June 2007 to July 2007, March 2009 to April 2009, May 2009 to

June 2009, July 2010 to August 2010, October 2011 to January 2012.



periods: April 2006, December 2006, October 2007, January 2008, August 2009,

December 2009, March 2010, December 2010, April 2011, February 2012 and April

2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: April 2006 to June

2006, October 2007 to December 2007, January 2010 to February 2010, March 2010

to May 2010 and December 2010 to March 2011.



March 2006, November 2006 to December 2006, April 2009 to August 2009,

November 2009 to December 2009, July 2010 to December 2010, January 2012 to

February 2012 and March 2012 to April 2012.


period: August 2006, March 2007, June 2007, March 2008, July 2008, November

2008, February 2009, June 2010, June 2011, September 2011.

219




mark on the following instance: September 2005, May 2006, December 2006, April

2009, June 2009, August 2009, September 2009, November 2009, December 2009,

March 2010, July 2010, August 2010, September 2010, October 2010, January

2011, January 2012 and May 2012.



mark on the following instances: May 2007, June 2007, March 2008, May 2008,

June 2008, July 2008, October 2008, January 2009, February 2009, May 2011, June

2011, August 2011 and September 2011.


gave bearish market: June 2006 to August 2006, January 2007 to April 2007,

October 2007 to December 2007, January 2008 to February 2008 and May 2010 to

June 2010.


gave bullish market: September 2006 to November 2006, September 2007 to

October 2007 and March 2011 to April 2011.

Table 6.7 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Bharti Airtel Ltd. on the basis


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 104.27

May-05 109.44

Jun-05 115.12

Jul-05 128.31

Aug-05 152.29 2.26 0.00

Sep-05 170.02 7.02 1.63 0.00

Oct-05 166.23 8.27 1.52 94.10

Nov-05 176.51 3.20 1.53 94.50

Dec-05 174.99 -2.79 1.36 90.73

Jan-06 171.94 -2.02 1.13 77.00

220

Feb-06 182.19 2.79 1.07 71.05

Mar-06 196.18 5.49 1.18 88.31

Apr-06 204.09 3.36 1.16 87.56

May-06 199.30 -1.23 1.14 80.38

Jun-06 176.37 -7.74 1.03 53.71

Jul-06 185.64 -16.22 1.02 52.93

Aug-06 203.66 -19.89 1.04 55.95

Sep-06 222.55 -10.95 1.09 62.49

Oct-06 244.01 -6.39 1.22 74.68

Nov-06 291.74 -2.64 1.65 0.00

Dec-06 309.66 5.43 1.67 0.00

Jan-07 331.29 7.36 1.63 0.00

Feb-07 381.50 7.80 1.71 0.00

Mar-07 372.38 7.09 1.53 93.78

Apr-07 399.07 8.03 1.37 92.73

May-07 417.35 6.12 1.35 92.76

Jun-07 411.82 -2.45 1.24 86.66

Jul-07 444.27 -2.03 1.16 84.08

Aug-07 428.18 4.59 1.15 78.17

Sep-07 439.84 6.67 1.10 74.26

Oct-07 508.86 11.32 1.22 83.95

Nov-07 451.12 17.87 1.10 60.51

Dec-07 477.52 19.66 1.07 59.19

Jan-08 451.09 -2.91 1.05 55.99

Feb-08 435.40 -4.51 0.99 48.86

Mar-08 394.11 -0.66 0.77 15.76

Apr-08 420.11 -6.73 0.93 38.58

May-08 424.80 -9.03 0.89 26.90

Jun-08 398.36 6.19 0.88 26.90

Jul-08 379.32 13.81 0.87 26.13

Aug-08 410.88 2.29 1.04 57.78

Sep-08 397.28 -1.08 0.95 38.03

Oct-08 344.27 5.07 0.81 21.97

Nov-08 325.76 -1.74 0.82 23.25

Dec-08 352.84 -13.05 0.93 40.79

Jan-09 319.75 -21.84 0.78 18.64

Feb-09 321.73 -18.82 0.81 21.74

Mar-09 295.67 -15.84 0.86 27.23

Apr-09 345.08 -7.63 1.06 57.02

May-09 402.51 2.03 1.14 64.79

Jun-09 404.90 21.70 1.27 81.02

Jul-09 406.90 39.33 1.26 81.02

Aug-09 405.10 23.97 1.37 98.41

Sep-09 419.21 4.78 1.21 97.69

221

Oct-09 339.67 -0.30 0.84 18.53

Nov-09 296.49 -5.26 0.73 11.46

Dec-09 320.85 -19.12 0.79 23.60

Jan-10 322.59 -12.13 0.80 24.68

Feb-10 293.34 6.45 0.70 14.66

Mar-10 301.10 1.59 0.89 31.86

Apr-10 305.05 -12.05 1.03 56.38

May-10 272.69 -15.19 0.85 17.92

Jun-10 267.43 -13.32 0.83 14.91

Jul-10 296.74 -7.22 1.01 52.17

Aug-10 319.99 1.46 1.06 60.03

Sep-10 355.18 9.69 1.16 69.99

Oct-10 339.74 12.79 1.25 80.91

Nov-10 328.75 9.91 1.23 76.85

Dec-10 343.62 -3.41 1.16 73.50

Jan-11 341.34 -10.41 1.07 63.55

Feb-11 329.15 -5.35 0.93 26.66

Mar-11 331.83 -7.21 0.98 40.81

Apr-11 369.77 -7.32 1.12 79.32

May-11 368.77 2.25 1.07 72.43

Jun-11 383.47 12.86 1.12 80.75

Jul-11 401.75 9.84 1.22 98.66

Aug-11 405.56 9.74 1.22 98.68

Sep-11 388.19 13.80 1.05 66.70

Oct-11 378.49 4.93 1.03 57.61

Nov-11 389.54 -2.04 1.02 55.04

Dec-11 350.25 0.51 0.87 18.29

Jan-12 344.19 3.27 0.85 13.24

Feb-12 355.86 -1.29 0.92 29.21

Mar-12 335.70 0.89 25.75

Apr-12 320.60 0.82 12.65

May-12 303.70 0.87 16.70

Jun-12 305.13 0.89 20.08



Table 6.7 reveals the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Bharti Airtel




222






period: October 2005, March 2006, February 2007, April 2007, December 2007,

July 2008, July 2009, February 2010, October 2010, June 2011 and September 2011.


period: December 2005, August 2006, June 2007, February 2008, May 2008,

September 2008, January 2009, December 2009, May 2010, January 2011, April

2011 and November 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from February 2007 to March 2007, October 2010

to November 2010 and September 2011 to October 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from August 2006 to November 2006, June 2007 to

July 2007, January 2009 to April 2009, December 2009 to January 2010 and May

2010 to July 2010.



period: September 2005, March 2006, December 2006, February 2007, October

2007, August 2008, June 2009, August 2009, October 2010 and August 2011.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to July

2006, November 2007 to January 2008 and August 2011 to October 2011


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: February 2006 to

223

March 2006, August 2006 to December 2006, January 2007 to February 2007,

September 2007 to October 2007, April 2009 to June 2009, July 2010 to October

2010 and May 2011 to July 2011.

( d) On the following instances ROC touched its bottom/nadir during the study

period: March 2008, July 2008, October 2008, January 2009, November 2009,

February 2010, June 2010, February 2011, January 2012 and April 2012September

2006, March 2007, April 2008, November 2008, February 2009, June 2011, October

2011, December 2011 and May 2012.




mark on the following instances: November 2005, March 2006, October 2006,

March 2007, May 2007, October 2007, June 2009, August 2009, October 2010,

April 2011, June 2011, July 2011 and August 2011.



mark on the following instances: March 2008, May 2008, June 2008, July 2008,

October 2008, January 2009, October 2009, November 2009, February 2011,

December 2011, January 2012, March 2012 and April 2012.


gave bearish market: November 2007 to February 2008, August 2008 to September

2008 and September 2011 to October 2011.


gave bullish market: July 2006 to September 2006, April 2009 to May 2009, March

2010 to April 2010 and July 2010 to September 2010.

224

Table 6.8 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Larsen & Toubro Ltd. on the

basis of Oscillators (monthly basis) from April, 2005 to June, 2012

Months

Monthly Closing

Prices(Rs.) MACD ROC RSI

Apr-05 245.44

May-05 259.25

Jun-05 279.16

Jul-05 309.51

Aug-05 328.88 -4.69 0.00

Sep-05 344.32 -6.90 1.40 0.00

Oct-05 356.61 -16.88 1.38 0.00

Nov-05 395.47 -24.92 1.42 0.00

Dec-05 436.83 -16.92 1.41 0.00

Jan-06 474.72 -0.34 1.44 0.00

Feb-06 578.21 33.00 1.68 0.00

Mar-06 614.06 53.70 1.72 0.00

Apr-06 658.51 41.32 1.67 0.00

May-06 643.03 11.13 1.47 93.47

Jun-06 517.77 -13.02 1.09 56.63

Jul-06 541.45 -27.07 0.94 42.49

Aug-06 584.35 -39.49 0.95 44.10

Sep-06 642.40 -18.95 0.98 46.96

Oct-06 638.61 -3.98 0.99 49.13

Nov-06 675.61 4.08 1.30 97.71

Dec-06 717.93 10.36 1.33 97.94

Jan-07 757.76 1.93 1.30 97.91

Feb-07 825.94 -10.24 1.29 98.02

Mar-07 757.42 -42.65 1.19 73.22

Apr-07 815.27 -54.78 1.21 75.24

May-07 874.12 -46.63 1.22 76.63

Jun-07 1003.24 -56.30 1.32 82.09

Jul-07 1211.44 -95.05 1.47 86.89

Aug-07 1226.69 -79.66 1.62 0.00

Sep-07 1338.46 12.14 1.64 0.00

Oct-07 1689.48 87.36 1.93 0.00

Nov-07 2116.40 186.80 2.11 0.00

Dec-07 2086.64 250.98 1.72 96.82

Jan-08 1992.70 184.91 1.62 87.79

Feb-08 1772.52 49.11 1.32 69.35

Mar-08 1487.09 -26.27 0.88 40.42

Apr-08 1415.14 -79.46 0.67 0.00

May-08 1457.05 -98.71 0.70 5.87

Jun-08 1298.31 -5.68 0.65 8.48

225

Jul-08 1234.67 76.79 0.70 6.74

Aug-08 1345.20 45.61 0.90 34.12

Sep-08 1291.77 24.52 0.91 35.60

Oct-08 900.03 20.00 0.62 14.21

Nov-08 808.23 -28.09 0.62 15.54

Dec-08 765.05 -111.40 0.62 16.00

Jan-09 722.81 -146.65 0.54 0.00

Feb-09 652.42 -166.35 0.51 0.00

Mar-09 610.79 -153.41 0.68 0.00

Apr-09 833.66 -72.45 1.03 53.03

May-09 1141.81 -5.10 1.49 77.49

Jun-09 1514.84 72.01 2.10 88.98

Jul-09 1461.74 121.74 2.24 90.52

Aug-09 1505.24 104.95 2.46 94.69

Sep-09 1615.72 38.82 1.94 94.02

Oct-09 1638.77 42.20 1.44 91.20

Nov-09 1612.56 52.24 1.06 69.06

Dec-09 1656.45 5.13 1.13 89.39

Jan-10 1604.74 -10.83 1.07 69.48

Feb-10 1461.88 -23.44 0.90 23.27

Mar-10 1603.61 -60.97 0.98 45.67

Apr-10 1608.76 -60.45 1.00 49.51

May-10 1585.59 -14.84 0.96 40.28

Jun-10 1722.41 -19.11 1.07 63.08

Jul-10 1849.01 -19.86 1.26 94.65

Aug-10 1819.68 27.89 1.13 83.65

Sep-10 1942.74 81.95 1.21 88.04

Oct-10 2032.13 108.08 1.28 94.20

Nov-10 2069.77 109.96 1.20 92.78

Dec-10 1977.68 56.26 1.07 67.32

Jan-11 1747.45 -7.59 0.96 43.69

Feb-11 1582.00 -59.51 0.81 20.66

Mar-11 1575.51 -114.81 0.78 7.08

Apr-11 1682.93 -71.86 0.81 17.85

May-11 1572.39 18.67 0.80 17.32

Jun-11 1713.73 69.50 0.98 46.83

Jul-11 1800.38 75.82 1.14 74.13

Aug-11 1622.48 86.49 1.03 53.76

Sep-11 1555.97 57.38 0.92 39.11

Oct-11 1374.52 -56.07 0.87 34.87

Nov-11 1296.60 -96.37 0.76 14.68

Dec-11 1123.30 -75.08 0.62 0.00

Jan-12 1194.09 -39.51 0.74 12.42

Feb-12 1374.72 -14.70 0.88 36.75

226


Note: Monthly Average Closing Prices have been Taken

Table 6.8 shows the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Larsen &

Toubro Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April, 2005

to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend







period: March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, July 2008, July 2009,

November 2010 and August 2011.


period: November 2005, August 2006, April 2007, July 2007, May 2008, February

2009, March 2010, July 2010, March 2011 and November 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from December 2007 to February 2008, July 2008

to October 2008, November 2010 to December 2010 and August 2011 to September

2011.


giving signal of bullish market from November 2005 to December 2005, August

2006 to October 2006, April 2007 to June 2007, July 2007 to August 2007, May

2008 to June 2008, February 2009 to May 2009, March 2010 to June 2010 and

March 2011 to April 2011.

Mar-12 1305.30 0.95 43.95

Apr-12 1282.59 0.99 48.64

May-12 1177.73 1.05 56.07

Jun-12 1307.42 1.09 61.17

227



period: September 2005, November 2005, March 2006, December 2006, November

2007, August 2009, December 2009, April 2010, July 2010, October 2010 and July

2011.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to June

2006, February 2007 to March 2007, November 2007 to February 2008, December

2009 to January 2010, July 2010 to August 2010, October 2010 to December 2010

and July 2011 to August 2011.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: October 2005 to

November 2005, December 2005 to March 2006, November 2006 to December

2006, April 2007 to November 2007, April 2009 to August 2009, June 2010to July

2010 and August 2010 to September 2010.


period: July 2006, April 2008, January 2008, February 2009, February 2010,

March 2011, May 2011, and December 2011.




mark on the following instance: May 2006, November 2006, December 2006,

February 2007, April 2007, May 2007, June 2007, July 2007, December 2007, May

2009, June 2009, July 2009, August 2009, July 2010, September 2010, October

2010 and July 2011.



mark on the following instances: May 2008, July 2008, October 2008, February

2010, February 2011, March 2011, May 2011, November 2011 and January 2012.

228


gave bearish market: February 2008 to March 2008, April 2010 to May 2010,

December 2010 to January 2011 and August 2011 to October 2011.


gave bullish market: June 2006 to October 2006, March 2010 to April 2010 and

May 2010 to July 2010

Table 6.9 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of ITC Ltd. on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 46.28

May-05 49.55

Jun-05 52.61

Jul-05 56.52

Aug-05 56.86 0.38 0.00

Sep-05 64.63 -0.15 1.40 0.00

Oct-05 61.97 -1.04 1.25 85.01

Nov-05 65.12 -1.87 1.24 85.08

Dec-05 69.66 -3.36 1.23 85.59

Jan-06 73.62 -2.05 1.29 87.95

Feb-06 81.18 2.98 1.26 87.84

Mar-06 90.31 4.41 1.46 0.00

Apr-06 99.66 3.33 1.53 0.00

May-06 96.11 3.85 1.38 89.42

Jun-06 81.54 1.34 1.11 58.97

Jul-06 96.68 -1.23 1.19 64.98

Aug-06 89.07 -1.53 0.99 48.77

Sep-06 92.96 2.14 0.93 42.52

Oct-06 93.92 1.65 0.98 47.40

Nov-06 92.24 1.67 1.13 68.27

Dec-06 89.09 2.52 0.92 28.05

Jan-07 85.86 -0.38 0.96 37.57

Feb-07 86.87 -1.48 0.93 19.64

Mar-07 75.57 -1.18 0.80 4.96

Apr-07 78.14 -1.71 0.85 16.84

May-07 82.07 -3.60 0.92 34.07

Jun-07 77.55 -2.92 0.90 32.19

229

Jul-07 78.56 -0.83 0.90 32.19

Aug-07 82.07 -1.43 1.09 70.91

Sep-07 91.08 -1.69 1.17 79.44

Oct-07 91.49 0.20 1.11 75.51

Nov-07 91.33 2.78 1.18 98.87

Dec-07 97.97 1.64 1.25 99.19

Jan-08 105.28 -0.60 1.28 99.32

Feb-08 100.00 1.00 1.10 72.53

Mar-08 96.11 3.72 1.05 59.92

Apr-08 104.87 2.59 1.15 71.24

May-08 110.48 0.75 1.13 70.28

Jun-08 101.04 2.75 0.96 43.57

Jul-08 89.57 2.65 0.90 36.69

Aug-08 93.91 -1.70 0.98 47.22

Sep-08 95.70 -2.89 0.91 35.96

Oct-08 83.30 -1.31 0.75 15.54

Nov-08 84.45 -1.32 0.84 23.37

Dec-09 86.33 -2.85 0.96 42.49

Jan-09 85.72 -2.31 0.91 27.03

Feb-09 90.41 -0.66 0.94 37.24

Mar-09 86.39 -1.92 1.04 62.51

Apr-09 93.86 -3.10 1.11 75.20

May-09 94.61 -2.45 1.10 73.60

Jun-09 97.73 -0.86 1.14 79.95

Jul-09 109.54 -0.89 1.21 85.20

Aug-09 116.70 0.92 1.35 0.00

Sep-09 114.96 3.53 1.22 92.92

Oct-09 125.92 3.69 1.33 95.00

Nov-09 128.70 2.15 1.32 94.95

Dec-09 126.42 1.24 1.15 83.87

Jan-10 126.11 -0.07 1.08 76.04

Feb-10 123.54 -2.61 1.07 72.70

Mar-10 128.52 -3.98 1.02 60.06

Apr-10 133.24 -3.36 1.04 65.28

May-10 133.15 -2.82 1.05 76.56

Jun-10 145.97 -1.87 1.16 89.44

Jul-10 150.39 -0.07 1.22 99.67

Aug-10 158.83 3.18 1.24 99.70

Sep-10 169.92 4.35 1.28 99.76

Oct-10 172.11 5.50 1.29 0.00

Nov-10 173.33 5.14 1.19 0.00

Dec-10 169.42 -1.62 1.13 85.44

Jan-11 172.00 -4.62 1.08 81.37

Feb-11 157.04 -4.25 0.92 24.09

230

Mar-11 172.93 -4.05 1.00 51.06

Apr-11 188.03 -2.91 1.08 64.02

May-11 187.34 3.07 1.11 68.20

Jun-11 193.03 5.12 1.12 70.09

Jul-11 202.54 1.77 1.29 98.53

Aug-11 200.94 1.96 1.16 92.97

Sep-11 197.52 2.46 1.05 72.69

Oct-11 203.91 0.21 1.09 81.13

Nov-11 204.26 -1.72 1.06 76.40

Dec-11 201.11 -4.25 0.99 45.20

Jan-12 203.70 -5.68 1.01 58.68

Feb-12 204.99 -3.91 1.04 77.12

Mar-12 215.43 1.06 82.32

Apr-12 238.70 1.17 92.27

May-12 234.59 1.17 90.14

Jun-12 243.55 1.20 91.45



Table 6.9 indicates the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of ITC Ltd









period : March 2006, May 2006, September 2006, December 2006, November 2007,

March 2008, June 2008, October 2009, October 2010, June 2011 and September

2011.


period: December 2005, August2006, February 2007, April 2007, September 2007,

January 2008, September 2008, December 2008, April 2009, July 2009, March

2010, January 2011 and January 2012.

231


giving a signal of bearish market from May 2006 to June 2006, and June 2008 to

July 2008.


giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to June 2006, April 2009 to

June 2009, March 2010 to July 2010 and January 2011 to April 2011.



period: April 2006 to June 2006, January 2008 to March 2008, October 2010 to

January 2011 and July 2011 to September 2011.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: June 2006 to July

2006, August 2007 to September 2007, October 2007 to January 2011 and July 2011

to September 2011.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: September 2006,

March 2007, June 2007, July 2008, October 2008, January 2009, February 2011 and

December 2011.


period: September 2006, March 2007, June 2007, July 2008, October 2008, January

2009, February 2011 and December 2011.




mark on the following instances: October 2005, November 2005, December 2005,

January 2006, May 2006, August 2007, September 2007, November 2007,

December 2007, January 2008, April 2008, April 2009, June 2009, July 2009,

September 2009, October 2009, May 2010, June 2010, July 2010, August 2010,

232

September 2010, December 2010, June 2011, July 2011, October 201, February

2012, March 2012, March 2012 and April 2012.



mark on the following instances: December 2006, February 2007, October 2008,

January 2009 and February 2011.


gave bearish market: July 2006 to September 2006, June 2008 to July 2008 and

August 2008 to September 2008.


gave bullish market: September 2006 to November 2006, July 2008 to August 2008,

March 2011 to May 2011 and December 2011 to January 2012.

Table 6.10 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Hindustan Unilever Ltd. on


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 133.32

May-05 133.11

Jun-05 151.73

Jul-05 160.81

Aug-05 166.36 3.19 99.37

Sep-05 172.8 1.29 1.30 99.47

Oct-05 172.65 -2.59 1.30 99.62

Nov-05 174.06 -9.19 1.15 99.34

Dec-05 190.25 -12.96 1.18 99.50

Jan-06 190.66 -7.17 1.15 99.39

Feb-06 221.04 9.58 1.28 99.69

Mar-06 254.88 16.96 1.48 0.00

Apr-06 281.51 15.66 1.62 0.00

May-06 262.31 12.46 1.38 82.62

Jun-06 215.4 2.52 1.13 57.88

Jul-06 235.96 -7.05 1.07 55.07

Aug-06 230.26 -9.31 0.90 39.66

Sep-06 245.91 3.49 0.87 33.52

Oct-06 235.82 8.79 0.90 36.61

Nov-06 243.11 9.35 1.13 73.37

Dec-06 227.52 3.41 0.96 42.23

Jan-07 216.24 -2.92 0.94 38.30

Feb-07 199.37 -4.25 0.81 11.93

Mar-07 185.1 -6.56 0.78 11.16

233

Apr-07 205.71 -6.91 0.85 26.21

May-07 195.9 -5.62 0.86 28.29

Jun-07 190.55 -2.73 0.88 30.80

Jul-07 199.68 -0.79 1.00 50.26

Aug-07 200.07 0.54 1.08 66.53

Sep-07 216.43 1.84 1.05 63.06

Oct-07 217.21 2.53 1.11 83.29

Nov-07 201.17 0.76 1.06 62.44

Dec-07 211.55 -5.14 1.06 63.50

Jan-08 213.08 -7.25 1.07 64.43

Feb-08 211.04 -0.09 0.98 41.24

Mar-08 229.93 5.75 1.06 63.01

Apr-08 243.04 5.36 1.21 95.56

May-08 242.025 3.11 1.14 91.65

Jun-08 227.35 0.60 1.07 64.35

Jul-08 219.44 -1.74 1.04 57.55

Aug-08 230.41 22.72 1.00 50.50

Sep-08 246.87 23.96 1.02 53.75

Oct-08 236.59 -21.61 0.98 45.49

Nov-08 238.99 -17.90 1.05 62.12

Dec-08 246. 89 -17.62 1.13 78.59

Jan-09 252.85 -18.10 1.10 76.09

Feb-09 257.11 -19.87 1.04 66.62

Mar-09 234.35 22.20 0.99 47.41

Apr-09 235.38 19.93 0.98 45.69

May-09 230.71 -6.05 0.93 29.08

Jun-09 256.26 -2.96 1.01 52.93

Jul-09 273.26 0.46 1.06 61.37

Aug-09 265.59 6.73 1.13 77.93

Sep-09 262.89 7.92 1.12 73.88

Oct-09 281.28 6.44 1.22 85.46

Nov-09 275.79 7.88 1.08 69.05

Dec-09 268.98 7.26 0.98 44.79

Jan-10 259.81 1.06 0.98 43.21

Feb-10 236.31 -7.13 0.90 29.02

Mar-10 232.96 -11.94 0.83 0.00

Apr-10 230.94 -11.33 0.84 0.00

May-10 234.43 -8.11 0.87 8.40

Jun-10 255.83 -6.43 0.98 46.30

Jul-10 262.4 -2.39 1.11 85.42

Aug-10 263.17 3.36 1.13 94.10

Sep-10 286.94 4.60 1.24 0.00

Oct-10 299.04 7.05 1.28 0.00

Nov-10 300.79 12.28 1.18 0.00

Dec-10 297.52 8.00 1.13 92.15

Jan-11 300.71 -0.25 1.14 92.58

Feb-11 275.61 -7.87 0.96 37.52

Mar-11 276.32 -11.64 0.92 16.61

Apr-11 280.47 -9.92 0.93 22.10

May-11 296.56 -2.97 1.00 49.03

Jun-11 318.96 1.63 1.06 63.33

Jul-11 331.23 0.10 1.20 0.00

Aug-11 318.15 -5.92 1.15 80.76

Sep-11 335.09 -4.68 1.19 83.81

Oct-11 334.59 -1.10 1.13 79.17

Nov-11 387.72 5.72 1.22 85.84

234

Dec-11 398.95 5.26 1.20 85.69

Jan-12 393.07 5.94 1.24 92.72

Feb-12 386.27 -0.11 1.15 83.00

Mar-12 392.41 1.17 84.76

Apr-12 416.14 1.07 76.42

May -12 427.50 1.07 55.40

Jun-12 440.67 1.21 70.32



Table 6.10 indicates the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Hindustan

Unilever Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April,








period: August 2005, March 2006, November 2006, October 2007, March 2008,

September 2008, March 2009, September 2009, November 2009, November 2010,

June 2011, November 2011, and January 2012.


period: December 2005, August 2006, April 2007, January 2008, July 2008,

October 2008, February 2009, May 2009, March 2010, March 2011 and August

2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to June 2006, November 2006 to

December 2006, November 2009 to January 2010 and November 2010 to December

2010.


giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to January 2006, October 2008

235

to December 2008, May 2009 to June 2009, March 2010 to July 2010, March 2011

to April 2011 and August 2011 to October 2011.



period: October 2005, December 2005, April 2006, November 2006, August 2007,

October 2007, January 2008, April 2008, September 2008, December 2008, August

2009, October 2009, October 2010, January 2011, July 2011, September 2011,

January 2012 and March 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: April 2006 to July

2006, October 2007 to December 2007, August 2009 to September 2009, October

2009 to November 2009, July 2011 to August 2011, September 2011 to October

2011 and January 2012 to February 2012.



December 2005, January 2006 to April 2006, July 2007 to August 2007, September

2007 to October 2007, December 2007 to January 2008, November 2008 to

December 2008, June 2009 to August 2009, September 2009 to October 2009, July

2010 to October 2010, December 2010 to January 2011, May 2011 to July 2011 and



period: September 2006, March 2007, February 2008, October 2008, May 2009

and March 2011.




mark on the following instance: August 2005, September 2005, October 2005,

December 2005, February 2006, May 2006, November 2006, October 2007, April

2008, December 2008, August 2009, October 2009, July 2010, August 2010,

236

December 2010, January 2011, August 2011, September 2011, November 2011,

January 2012 and March 2012.



mark on the following instances: February 2007, March 2007, May 2009, February

2010, May 2010 and March 2011.


gave bearish market: December 2006 to January 2007, January 2008 to February

2008, June 2008 to July 2008, September 2008 to October 2008, November 2009 to

January 2010.


gave bullish market: June 2007 to August 2007, February 2008 to March 2008,

October 2008 to November 2008 and May 2011 to June 2011.

Table 6.11 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of BHEL on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 79.54

May-05 84.76

Jun-05 86.91

Jul-05 91.47

Aug-05 106.49 -1.88 0.00

Sep-05 111.54 -1.53 1.40 0.00

Oct-05 117.50 -4.42 1.39 0.00

Nov-05 129.82 -9.09 1.49 0.00

Dec-05 133.97 -9.77 1.46 0.00

Jan-06 153.60 -2.83 1.44 0.00

Feb-06 187.24 9.91 1.68 0.00

Mar-06 213.78 18.53 1.82 0.00

Apr-06 233.82 14.46 1.80 0.00

May-06 217.32 4.38 1.62 85.82

Jun-06 184.08 -3.62 1.20 61.73

Jul-06 189.98 -10.98 1.01 51.34

Aug-06 221.30 -9.95 1.04 53.51

Sep-06 229.61 2.83 0.98 47.79

237

Oct-06 239.14 11.31 1.10 62.36

Nov-06 245.96 9.92 1.34 0.00

Dec-06 243.74 5.37 1.28 96.19

Jan-07 230.17 -4.32 1.04 60.96

Feb-07 237.81 -9.95 1.04 60.30

Mar-07 212.48 -16.58 0.89 26.01

Apr-07 245.72 -17.31 1.00 49.86

May-07 260.48 -15.07 1.07 58.85

Jun-07 279.94 -14.45 1.22 74.78

Jul-07 328.88 -19.74 1.38 82.13

Aug-07 342.17 -14.44 1.61 0.00

Sep-07 387.50 13.63 1.58 0.00

Oct-07 458.02 33.91 1.76 0.00

Nov-07 540.59 45.30 1.93 0.00

Dec-07 520.36 48.76 1.58 91.28

Jan-08 462.28 35.05 1.35 71.70

Feb-08 422.63 9.82 1.09 56.48

Mar-08 393.64 -7.59 0.86 35.98

Apr-08 360.99 -20.25 0.67 0.00

May-08 349.67 -22.60 0.67 0.00

Jun-08 291.30 -9.65 0.63 0.00

Jul-08 307.41 2.41 0.73 10.93

Aug-08 346.75 -1.69 0.88 35.14

Sep-08 334.13 2.52 0.93 40.25

Oct-08 261.30 3.38 0.75 27.83

Nov-08 265.79 -9.51 0.91 41.23

Dec-08 271.51 -22.09 0.88 36.70

Jan-09 277.10 -21.04 0.80 15.60

Feb-09 277.40 -21.73 0.83 18.10

Mar-09 281.87 -20.11 1.08 0.00

Apr-09 318.53 -9.13 1.20 0.00

May-09 374.32 1.81 1.38 0.00

Jun-09 435.31 13.12 1.57 0.00

Jul-09 431.77 20.62 1.56 97.80

Aug-09 451.70 22.10 1.60 97.99

Sep-09 450.95 7.15 1.42 96.95

Oct-09 481.00 2.18 1.29 96.27

Nov-09 448.24 2.20 1.03 57.42

Dec-09 460.64 -1.28 1.07 65.05

Jan-10 476.28 -3.74 1.05 63.41

Feb-10 471.08 3.58 1.04 60.48

Mar-10 479.35 5.21 1.00 48.89

Apr-10 499.26 0.00 1.11 91.54

May-10 470.93 -0.64 1.02 56.65

238

Jun-10 476.91 -0.96 1.00 50.47

Jul-10 484.88 -2.56 1.03 59.80

Aug-10 496.21 7.62 1.04 61.47

Sep-10 491.25 12.16 0.98 43.16

Oct-10 509.49 12.34 1.08 89.76

Nov-10 471.09 10.84 0.99 46.40

Dec-10 457.09 2.87 0.94 34.01

Jan-11 447.94 -7.79 0.90 21.52

Feb-11 419.28 -5.18 0.85 16.82

Mar-11 403.54 -2.98 0.79 0.00

Apr-11 427.09 -1.57 0.91 25.85

May-11 401.43 5.84 0.88 22.92

Jun-11 388.58 9.25 0.87 22.12

Jul-11 389.51 4.82 0.93 31.09

Aug-11 351.56 5.97 0.87 24.25

Sep-11 336.80 5.76 0.79 1.01

Oct-11 323.69 -8.15 0.81 1.17

Nov-11 296.58 -13.02 0.76 0.99

Dec-11 253.30 -8.49 0.65 0.00

Jan-12 263.33 -3.24 0.75 9.27

Feb-12 281.46 0.54 0.84 25.22

Mar-12 273.63 0.85 26.47

Apr-12 249.16 0.84 27.15

May-12 214.14 0.85 29.50

Jun-12 217.41 0.83 24.12 Source: Researcher Calculation

Note: Monthly Average Closing Prices have taken

Table 6.11 portrays the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Bharat

Heavy Electricals Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from

April, 2005 to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for

the trend analysis in the following terms:




239



period: March 2006, October 2006, December 2007, July 2008, October 2008,

August 2009, November 2009, March 2010, October 2010, June 2011, August 2011.


period: December 2005, July 2006, April 2007, July 2007, May 2008, August 2008,

December 2008, February 2009, January 2010, July 2010, January 2011, November

2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from December 2007 to February 2008, August

2009 to September 2009, October 2010 to December 2010, August 2011 to

September 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to January 2006, July 2006 to

August 2006, April 2007 to June 2007, February 2009 to March 2009.



period: September 2005, November 2005, March 2006, August 2006, November

2006, August 2007, November 2007, June 2009, August 2009, December 2009,

April 2010, August 2010, October 2010.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to June

2006, November 2007 to February 2008, August 2009 to November 2009, April

2010 to June 2010.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: July 2006 to August

2006, October 2006 to November 2006, April 2007 to August 2007, March 2009 to

June 2009, June 2010 to August 2010.

240


period: September 2006, March 2007, June 2008, October 2008, January 2009,

March 2011, June 2011, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012.




mark on the following instance: May 2006, December 2006, June 2007, July 2007,

December 2007, July 2009, August 2009, April 2010, October 2010.



mark on the following instances: March 2007, July 2008, October 2008, January

2009, January 2011, February 2011, April 2011, May 2011, June 2011, August

2011, September 2011.


gave bearish market: February 2008 to March 2008, August 2010 to September

2010, November 2010 to December 2010.


gave bullish market: July 2006 to October 2006, April 2007 to May 2007,

November 2009 to December 2009, June 2010 to August 2010.

Table 6.12 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Reliance Industries Ltd. on


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 221.62

May-05 217.60

Jun-05 241.62

Jul-05 267.58

Aug-05 288.39 1.99 94.62

Sep-05 309.09 4.54 1.39 95.78

Oct-05 313.64 5.50 1.44 0.00

Nov-05 331.38 4.67 1.37 0.00

Dec-05 347.74 -7.44 1.30 0.00

241

Jan-06 360.27 -19.61 1.25 0.00

Feb-06 353.21 -12.62 1.14 87.88

Mar-06 378.49 -1.48 1.21 91.06

Apr-06 455.99 -0.53 1.38 94.91

May-06 514.64 7.07 1.48 96.10

Jun-06 470.44 12.46 1.31 75.90

Jul-06 513.86 8.31 1.45 82.25

Aug-06 521.13 -9.37 1.38 80.87

Sep-06 568.48 -4.42 1.25 78.00

Oct-06 568.48 2.92 1.10 68.93

Nov-06 593.10 0.10 1.26 0.00

Dec-06 634.54 2.93 1.23 0.00

Jan-07 632.23 5.16 1.21 98.01

Feb-07 665.74 -10.59 1.17 97.74

Mar-07 695.84 -28.29 1.22 98.25

Apr-07 663.42 -22.39 1.12 75.16

May-07 730.31 -22.49 1.15 78.99

Jun-07 836.82 -53.17 1.32 87.97

Jul-07 900.19 -54.53 1.35 89.17

Aug-07 908.28 -23.04 1.31 88.31

Sep-07 1057.44 4.29 1.59 0.00

Oct-07 1290.76 50.85 1.77 0.00

Nov-07 1387.14 117.75 1.66 0.00

Dec-07 1421.30 116.11 1.58 0.00

Jan-08 1408.03 42.49 1.55 97.48

Feb-08 1249.26 11.04 1.18 67.90

Mar-08 1134.25 11.45 0.88 31.26

Apr-08 1260.25 -18.17 0.91 35.81

May-08 1289.13 -12.70 0.91 35.05

Jun-08 1112.06 61.53 0.79 25.57

Jul-08 1049.19 84.44 0.84 30.38

Aug-08 1120.95 27.19 0.99 48.57

Sep-08 1011.96 -3.33 0.80 22.38

Oct-08 716.03 -19.27 0.56 10.01

Nov-08 596.11 -73.12 0.54 10.88

Dec-08 617.91 -123.85 0.59 15.13

Jan-09 606.26 -122.70 0.54 3.91

Feb-09 656.28 -75.61 0.65 14.38

Mar-09 670.29 -21.01 0.94 39.48

Apr-09 865.51 27.58 1.45 96.02

May-09 1028.32 41.27 1.66 97.31

Jun-09 1073.01 57.04 1.77 0.00

Jul-09 963.34 50.93 1.47 79.17

Aug-09 998.99 12.61 1.49 79.99

242

Sep-09 1047.42 -17.64 1.21 72.67

Oct-09 1056.00 5.82 1.03 55.60

Nov-09 1038.72 24.02 0.97 42.19

Dec-09 1064.95 1.17 1.11 87.31

Jan-10 1076.08 -3.74 1.08 84.52

Feb-10 1000.10 5.40 0.95 33.00

Mar-10 1047.94 -1.78 0.99 47.74

Apr-10 1083.76 -1.16 1.04 61.43

May-10 1028.69 18.52 0.97 41.97

Jun-10 1046.22 6.73 0.97 43.57

Jul-10 1055.40 -17.57 1.06 66.71

Aug-10 979.38 -10.52 0.93 32.30

Sep-10 987.37 -1.84 0.91 20.93

Oct-10 1058.74 4.79 1.03 58.25

Nov-10 1045.38 14.04 1.00 49.76

Dec-10 1038.57 8.46 0.98 45.21

Jan-11 1004.12 2.89 1.03 59.23

Feb-11 938.68 6.77 0.95 37.28

Mar-11 1007.56 8.43 0.95 36.46

Apr-11 1017.98 18.53 0.97 42.63

May-11 937.38 28.22 0.90 30.53

Jun-11 903.05 -0.11 0.90 30.54

Jul-11 861.68 -28.76 0.92 33.66

Aug-11 772.55 -20.67 0.77 4.07

Sep-11 812.77 -6.17 0.80 14.08

Oct-11 836.10 -16.20 0.89 27.83

Nov-11 827.13 -5.90 0.92 31.30

Dec-11 752.42 10.97 0.87 26.89

Jan-12 750.88 6.05 0.97 42.72

Feb-12 830.94 -0.40 1.02 54.82

Mar-12 771.41 0.92 35.61

Apr-12 742.50 0.90 32.71

May-12 700.43 0.93 37.74

Jun-12 718.50 0.96 42.92



Table 6.12 indicates the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Reliance

Industries Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April,



243






period: October 2005, June 2006, October 2006, January 2007, November 2007,

March 2008, July 2008, June 2009, November 2009, May 2010, November 2010,

May 2011 and December 2011.


period: January 2006, August 2006, March 2007, July 2007, April 2008, December

2008, September 2009, January 2010, March 2010, July 2010, July 2011 and

October 2011.

(c) During the following period MACD moved above zero but was falling and

giving a signal of bearish market from June 2009 to August 2009, November 2010

to January 2011 and December 2011 to January 2012.

(d) During the following periods MACD moved below zero but was raising giving

and signal of bullish market from August 2006 to September 2006, March 2007 to

May 2007, July 2007 to August 2007, April 2008 to May 2008, December 2008 to

March 2009, March 2010 to April 2010.



period: October 2005, May 2006, July 2006, November 2006, March 2007, July

2007, October 2007, June 2009, September 2009, December 2009, April 2010, July

2010, October 2010, January 2011 and February 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: November 2007 to

February 2008, June 2009 to August 2009 and October 2010 to November 2010.

244

(c) During the following intervals ROC increased from one mark towards tis peak


October 2005, March 2006 to May 2006, June 2006 to July 2006, October 2006 to

November 2006, May 2007 to July 2007, August 2007 to October 2007 and April

2009 to May 2009.


period: March 2008, June 2008, November 2008, January 2009, November 2009,

February 2010, September 2010, March 2011, May 2011, August 2011, December

2011 and April 2012.




mark on the following instance: September 2005, February 2006, March 2006, April

2006, May 2006, July 2006, January 2007, March 2007, May 2007, June 2007, July

2007, January 2008, April 2009, May 2009, July 2009, August 2009 and December

2009.



mark on the following instances: June 2008, September 2008, October 2008,

January 2009, September 2010, August 2011, and December 2011.


gave bearish market: February 2008 to March 2008, October 2009 to November

2009, April 2010 to May 2010, October 2010 to December 2010, January 2011 to

February 2011 and March 2012 to April 2012.


gave bullish market: July 2008 to August 2008, February 2010 to March 2010, June

2010 to July 2010, March 2011 to April 2011 and January 2012 to February 2012.

245

Table 6.13 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Hindalco Industries Ltd. on


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 110.57

May-05 101.44

Jun-05 97.74

Jul-05 106.26

Aug-05 117.15 0.45 60.21

Sep-05 127.50 -0.06 1.15 69.88

Oct-05 113.26 -1.69 1.12 62.38

Nov-05 111.18 -3.01 1.14 64.59

Dec-05 122.29 -8.09 1.15 66.47

Jan-06 139.37 -8.92 1.19 70.25

Feb-06 144.94 3.36 1.14 67.41

Mar-06 149.65 12.60 1.32 94.88

Apr-06 183.34 9.75 1.65 0.00

May-06 190.13 7.38 1.55 0.00

Jun-06 146.83 4.74 1.05 53.97

Jul-06 152.23 -2.67 1.05 53.88

Aug-06 150.27 -8.76 1.00 50.34

Sep-06 156.75 -2.22 0.85 29.21

Oct-06 164.27 4.07 0.86 30.00

Nov-06 163.74 8.05 1.12 88.63

Dec-06 157.89 8.09 1.04 62.67

Jan-07 154.98 1.16 1.03 60.12

Feb-07 143.67 -4.66 0.92 26.73

Mar-07 119.44 -8.76 0.73 0.00

Apr-07 128.36 -7.74 0.78 16.75

May-07 132.00 -4.16 0.84 24.62

Jun-07 145.41 -1.76 0.94 42.22

Jul-07 154.51 -2.09 1.08 59.14

Aug-07 137.39 -2.43 1.15 67.19

Sep-07 145.21 -1.05 1.13 66.49

Oct-07 165.69 1.33 1.26 74.79

Nov-07 176.93 6.53 1.22 73.96

Dec-07 183.15 8.90 1.19 72.77

Jan-08 172.64 4.40 1.26 81.33

Feb-08 162.12 1.03 1.12 64.34

Mar-08 162.10 2.58 0.98 45.34

Apr-08 163.61 4.14 0.92 26.86

May-08 171.44 5.47 0.94 30.73

246

Jun-08 151.54 9.27 0.88 23.48

Jul-08 130.65 11.20 0.81 18.62

Aug-08 124.91 3.44 0.77 16.72

Sep-08 114.54 -2.97 0.70 12.09

Oct-08 71.57 -4.37 0.42 0.00

Nov-08 56.35 -7.50 0.37 0.00

Dec-09 52.19 -13.61 0.40 0.00

Jan-09 49.97 -13.29 0.40 0.00

Feb-09 42.81 -10.55 0.37 0.00

Mar-09 44.80 -7.66 0.63 6.45

Apr-09 56.53 -5.12 1.00 50.32

May-09 73.85 -4.50 1.42 76.80

Jun-09 90.24 -1.25 1.81 86.90

Jul-09 84.51 2.08 1.97 89.22

Aug-09 106.00 2.16 2.37 92.11

Sep-09 121.68 -1.89 2.15 92.52

Oct-09 130.83 2.39 1.77 91.63

Nov-09 130.18 5.13 1.44 87.89

Dec-09 146.65 -0.39 1.74 98.98

Jan-10 164.79 1.79 1.55 98.92

Feb-10 147.25 9.24 1.21 70.64

Mar-10 171.36 9.51 1.31 76.35

Apr-10 180.26 1.33 1.38 79.40

May-10 159.36 -2.28 1.09 57.09

Jun-10 144.70 -8.27 0.88 38.33

Jul-10 151.31 -14.84 1.03 52.70

Aug-10 167.58 -10.58 0.98 47.19

Sep-10 186.47 -2.03 1.03 54.02

Oct-10 211.95 6.67 1.33 82.11

Nov-10 217.53 13.34 1.50 0.00

Dec-10 227.65 12.78 1.50 0.00

Jan-11 234.44 8.13 1.40 0.00

Feb-11 218.46 8.21 1.17 75.01

Mar-11 205.04 5.56 0.97 43.34

Apr-11 213.89 1.95 0.98 46.70

May-11 196.98 3.66 0.87 25.25

Jun-11 179.22 4.64 0.76 12.14

Jul-11 180.60 0.88 0.83 17.53

Aug-11 150.68 -4.13 0.73 13.67

Sep-11 144.06 -5.48 0.67 1.89

Oct-11 127.80 -11.61 0.65 1.91

Nov-11 126.60 -10.76 0.71 2.48

Dec-11 125.59 -2.72 0.70 0.00

Jan-12 131.33 3.18 0.87 18.62

247

Feb-12 153.13 5.52 1.06 59.85

Mar-12 136.71 1.07 59.66

Apr-12 124.57 0.98 48.23

May-12 113.60 0.90 41.06

Jun-12 119.35 0.91 41.07



Table 6.13 shows the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Hindalco

Industries Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April,








period: March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, July 2008, March 2010,

November 2010, February 2011 and June 2011.


period: January 2006, August 2006, March 2007, December 2008, December 2009,

July 2010 and October 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to June 2006, December 2006 to

January 2007, December 2007 to February 2008, July 2008 to August 2008 and

February 2011 to April 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from March 2007 to June 2007, December 2008 to

June 2009 and July 2010 to September 2010.

248



period: September 2005, January 2006, April 2006, November 2006, October 2007,

January 2008, August 2009, December 2009, April 2010, November 2010 and

March 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: April2006 to August

2006, November 2006 to January 2007, January 2008 to February 2008, April 2010

to May2010 and December 2010 to February 2011.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: October 2005 to

January 2006, July 2007 to October 2007, April 2009 to August 2009 and

September 2010 to December 2010.


period: September 2006, March 2007, April 2008, November 2008, February 2009,

June 2011, October 2011, December 2011 and May 2012.




mark on the following instances: January 2006, March 2006, November 2006,

October 2007, January 2008, May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, August 2009,

September 2009, December 2009, March 2010, April 2010, October 2010 , February

2011.



mark on the following instances: September 2006, February 2007, April 2008, June

2008, July 2008, August 2008, September 2008, March 2009, May 2011, June 2011,

August 2011 and September 2011.

249


gave bearish market: September 2005 to October 2005, June 2006 to August 2006,

December 2006 to January 2007, August 2007 to September 2007, February 2008 to

March 2008, May 2010 to June 2010 and February 2012 to May 2012.


gave bullish market: November 2005 to January 2006, June 2010 to July 2010 and


Table 6.14 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of ONGC Ltd. on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 144.06

May-05 145.31

Jun-05 157.09

Jul-05 157.11

Aug-05 161.53 0.32 0.00

Sep-05 168.90 -4.47 1.17 0.00

Oct-05 164.93 -3.53 1.14 85.60

Nov-05 166.02 -0.07 1.06 76.47

Dec-05 189.37 -1.62 1.21 90.12

Jan-06 203.26 -0.71 1.26 92.01

Feb-06 194.93 9.17 1.15 75.71

Mar-06 201.00 12.80 1.22 84.20

Apr-06 217.93 3.07 1.31 87.85

May-06 218.30 0.13 1.15 81.73

Jun-06 173.44 1.03 0.85 30.53

Jul-06 184.34 -5.40 0.95 43.31

Aug-06 199.87 -11.69 0.99 49.36

Sep-06 196.79 -4.30 0.90 35.86

Oct-06 193.12 1.23 0.88 33.87

Nov-06 214.73 3.24 1.24 87.68

Dec-06 212.30 3.32 1.15 80.18

Jan-07 225.70 1.96 1.13 79.23

Feb-07 218.92 0.76 1.11 73.11

Mar-07 201.78 0.26 1.04 57.06

Apr-07 223.46 0.36 1.04 57.11

May-07 227.75 0.94 1.07 62.21

Jun-07 223.32 -2.84 0.99 47.81

Jul-07 225.36 -13.48 1.03 56.49

Aug-07 209.57 -15.41 1.04 58.08

250

Sep-07 218.67 -6.60 0.98 43.28

Oct-07 273.76 5.92 1.20 76.61

Nov-07 306.08 19.60 1.37 86.19

Dec-07 301.95 23.01 1.34 82.89

Jan-08 293.17 15.08 1.40 88.20

Feb-08 252.86 5.44 1.16 62.16

Mar-08 250.72 -2.10 0.92 36.86

Apr-08 256.21 -12.33 0.84 9.02

May-08 239.49 -12.49 0.79 7.48

Jun-08 215.62 -1.24 0.74 6.20

Jul-08 229.22 8.06 0.91 30.88

Aug-08 258.51 10.40 1.03 54.38

Sep-08 260.84 12.89 1.02 52.70

Oct-08 205.99 8.50 0.86 36.49

Nov-08 177.49 -6.38 0.82 35.17

Dec-09 169.38 -22.80 0.74 25.69

Jan-09 165.13 -25.68 0.64 2.38

Feb-09 171.34 -19.47 0.66 6.09

Mar-09 181.37 -12.02 0.88 28.44

Apr-09 215.90 -3.03 1.22 80.42

May-09 240.12 2.40 1.42 94.64

Jun-09 274.13 9.86 1.66 0.00

Jul-09 266.29 11.61 1.55 92.91

Aug-09 292.77 10.51 1.61 93.83

Sep-09 291.38 5.27 1.35 92.82

Oct-09 298.54 7.29 1.24 87.99

Nov-09 291.42 7.96 1.06 67.29

Dec-09 296.45 5.51 1.11 81.96

Jan-10 294.23 2.86 1.00 53.18

Feb-10 276.23 -4.32 0.95 30.84

Mar-10 270.70 -12.38 0.91 13.27

Apr-10 261.09 -13.92 0.90 12.45

May-10 266.51 -11.39 0.90 13.29

Jun-10 301.33 -6.88 1.02 54.84

Jul-10 317.21 4.96 1.15 78.75

Aug-10 318.04 13.06 1.17 85.56

Sep-10 347.45 14.00 1.33 0.00

Oct-10 338.87 14.67 1.27 90.41

Nov-10 325.14 13.15 1.08 67.40

Dec-10 328.04 1.90 1.03 59.77

Jan-11 295.51 -7.72 0.93 37.08

Feb-11 279.91 -4.92 0.81 3.96

Mar-11 274.48 -5.96 0.81 4.13

Apr-11 296.88 -5.49 0.91 32.08

251

May-11 288.75 1.39 0.88 26.64

Jun-11 271.38 4.80 0.92 32.50

Jul-11 277.53 -0.36 0.99 48.00

Aug-11 277.40 -2.49 1.01 52.70

Sep-11 261.88 -0.61 0.88 13.00

Oct-11 270.06 -3.47 0.94 30.27

Nov-11 263.39 -6.29 0.97 39.10

Dec-11 259.98 -0.90 0.94 24.13

Jan-12 265.61 2.80 0.96 35.04

Feb-12 282.85 2.90 1.08 75.49

Mar-12 275.61 1.02 56.90

Apr-12 266.69 1.01 53.89

May-12 254.12 0.98 44.32

Jun-12 266.9 1.00 51.10



Table 6.14 reveals the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Oil and

Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis)

from April, 2005 to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’

for the trend analysis in the following terms:






period: August 2005, March 2006, December 2006, May 2007, December 2007,

September 2008, July 2009, November 2009, October 2010 and June 2011.


period: September 2005, December 2005, August 2006, August 2007, May 2008,

January 2009, April 2010, January 2011, March 2011, August 2011 and November

2011.

(c) During the following period MACD moved above zero but was falling and

giving a signal of bearish market from March 2006 to June 2006, December 2006 to

252

March 2007, December 2007 to February 2008, September 2008 to October 2008

and October 2010 to December 2010.


giving signal of bullish market from December 2005 to January 2006, August 2007

to September 2007, January 2009 to April 2009, April 2010 to June 2010 and March

2011 to April 2011.



period: September 2005, January 2006, April 2006, November 2006, May 2007,

January 2008, August 2008, June 2009, August 2009, October 2009, December

2009, September 2010 and February 2012.



November 2005, January 2006 to February 2006, November 2006 to march 2007,

January 2008 to February 2008, June 2009 to July 2009, August 2009 to September

2009, October 2009 to November 2009, December 2009 to January 2010, September

2010 to December 2010 and February 2012 to April 2012.

(c) During the following intervals ROC increased from one mark towards is peak


January 2006, February 2006 to April 2006, March 2007 to May 2007, October

2007 to January 2008, April 2009 to June 2009, July 2009 to August 2009,

November 2009 to December 2009 and June 2010 to September 2010.


period: June 2006, October 2006, June 2007, September 2007, June 2008, January

2009, May 2010, March 2011, May 2011, July 2011, September 2011, December

2011 and May 2012.




253

mark on the following instance: October 2005, December 2005, January 2006,

March 2006, April 2006, November 2006, October 2007, November 2007, January

2008, April 2009, May 2009, August 2009, December 2009, July 2010, August

2010, October 2010 and February 2012.



mark on the following instances: April 2008, May 2008, June 2008, December 2009,

January 2009, March 2010, April 2010, February 2011, May 2011, September 2011

and December 2011.


gave bearish market: August 2006 to October 2006, May 2007 to June 2007,

February 2008 to March 2008, August 2008 to November 2008, January 2010 to

February 2010, November 2010 to January 2011 and March 2012 to May 2012.


gave bullish market: June 2006 to August 2006, March 2007 to May 2007, July

2008 to August 2008 and June 2011 to August 2011.

Table 6.15 Trend Analysis of Share Prices of HDFC Bank on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 108.97

May-05 107.80

Jun-05 116.18

Jul-05 129.92

Aug-05 131.47 2.73 95.31

Sep-05 135.94 1.98 1.25 96.02

Oct-05 131.63 -0.24 1.22 86.72

Nov-05 133.66 -0.96 1.15 83.49

Dec-05 141.09 -2.47 1.09 78.23

Jan-06 147.21 -2.27 1.12 82.31

Feb-06 147.86 3.01 1.09 79.02

Mar-06 151.04 5.46 1.15 0.00

Apr-06 164.93 1.46 1.23 0.00

May-06 164.59 -1.51 1.17 98.59

254

Jun-06 144.75 -3.85 0.98 46.75

Jul-06 151.85 -9.03 1.03 54.50

Aug-06 165.20 -9.93 1.09 62.99

Sep-06 175.03 -1.43 1.06 60.01

Oct-06 193.76 5.65 1.18 0.00

Nov-06 212.69 9.64 1.47 0.00

Dec-06 211.63 11.46 1.39 98.29

Jan-07 210.67 5.76 1.28 95.93

Feb-07 208.55 -2.85 1.19 90.10

Mar-07 190.71 -7.80 0.98 46.27

Apr-07 195.73 -7.15 0.92 18.60

May-07 211.09 -6.03 1.00 49.34

Jun-07 221.92 -7.98 1.05 60.99

Jul-07 237.32 -9.70 1.14 72.31

Aug-07 227.09 -10.02 1.19 82.00

Sep-07 253.36 -3.55 1.29 86.90

Oct-07 293.69 7.69 1.39 90.07

Nov-07 327.83 22.82 1.48 91.90

Dec-07 342.28 27.39 1.44 91.84

Jan-08 328.10 15.34 1.44 89.04

Feb-08 298.83 8.00 1.18 67.18

Mar-08 267.62 6.64 0.91 39.43

Apr-08 278.04 -3.62 0.85 24.98

May-08 288.64 -11.51 0.84 21.96

Jun-08 229.78 -4.11 0.70 14.97

Jul-08 209.37 2.36 0.70 15.98

Aug-08 243.12 -3.46 0.91 40.86

Sep-08 252.26 -1.00 0.91 40.29

Oct-08 217.45 7.64 0.75 27.33

Nov-08 194.16 3.53 0.84 35.33

Dec-08 191.89 -11.60 0.92 41.54

Jan-09 191.80 -21.66 0.79 13.13

Feb-09 179.42 -22.44 0.71 0.00

Mar-09 174.34 -17.33 0.80 0.00

Apr-09 214.49 -6.99 1.10 66.95

May-09 256.05 2.14 1.33 82.32

Jun-09 295.90 9.13 1.54 87.45

Jul-09 286.92 8.60 1.60 89.64

Aug-09 288.46 5.04 1.65 93.21

Sep-09 303.25 0.81 1.41 91.59

Oct-09 334.31 5.06 1.31 90.67

Nov-09 343.87 7.21 1.16 86.39

Dec-09 347.30 0.39 1.21 0.00

Jan-10 338.89 -3.11 1.17 87.49

255

Feb-10 326.50 -3.17 1.08 67.93

Mar-10 367.31 -4.59 1.10 72.12

Apr-10 390.18 -4.24 1.13 76.34

May-10 379.39 -2.14 1.09 66.84

Jun-10 387.14 -5.32 1.14 75.50

Jul-10 404.85 -5.36 1.24 89.20

Aug-10 427.49 4.36 1.16 86.80

Sep-10 469.49 16.20 1.20 89.31

Oct-10 475.83 21.87 1.25 0.00

Nov-10 469.57 16.66 1.21 93.41

Dec-10 453.44 -1.46 1.12 76.02

Jan-11 432.05 -11.15 1.01 52.47

Feb-11 415.79 -11.43 0.89 9.54

Mar-11 442.25 -14.32 0.93 30.59

Apr-11 471.25 -5.32 1.00 50.76

May-11 454.30 9.98 1.00 50.39

Jun-11 474.98 10.43 1.10 69.63

Jul-11 503.42 6.11 1.21 86.05

Aug-11 465.82 9.74 1.05 58.88

Sep-11 473.43 6.98 1.00 50.98

Oct-11 470.46 -13.11 1.04 58.30

Nov-11 458.63 -17.27 0.97 40.76

Dec-11 438.67 -11.87 0.87 9.52

Jan-12 466.67 -8.04 1.00 50.60

Feb-12 518.52 0.62 1.10 69.67

Mar-12 513.94 1.09 68.71

Apr-12 536.02 1.17 80.60

May-12 509.60 1.16 76.68

Jun-12 534.82 1.15 76.18



Table 6.15 shows the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of HDFC Bank







256



period: August 2005, March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, July 2008,

October 2008, June 2009, November 2009, October 2010, June 2011 and August

2011.


period: December 2005, August 2006, March 2007, August 2007, May 2008,

August 2008, February 2009, March 2010, July 2010, March 2011 and November

2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from December 2006 to January 2007, December

2007 to March 2008, June 2009 to August 2009 and October 2010 to November

2010.

(d) During the following periods MACD moved below zero but was raising giving

and signal of bullish market from December 2005 to January 2006, August 2006 to

September 2006, March 2007 to May 2007, May 2008 to June 2008, February 2009

to March 2009 and November 2011 to December 2011.



period: September 2005, January 2006, April 2006, August 2006, November 2006,

November 2007, August 2009, December 2009, April 2010, July 2010, October

2010, July 2011, October 2011, February 2012 and April 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: April 2006 to May

2006, November 2006 to December 2006, January 2007 to February 2007, January

2008 to February 2008, December 2009 to February 2010, April 2010 to May 2010,

October 2010 to January 2011, July 2011 to September 2011 and April 2012 to May

2012.

257


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: December 2005 to

January 2006, February 2006 to April 2006, July 2006 to August 2006, September

2006 to November 2006, May 2007 to November 2007, April 2009 to August

20009, November 2009 to December 2009, February 2010 to April 2010, August

2010 to October 2010, May 2011 to July 2011, January 2012 to February 2012 and

March 2012 to April 2012.


period: June 2006, April 2007, July 2008, October 2008, February 2009 and

December 2011.




mark on the following instance: September 2005, January 2006, May 2006,

December 2006, July 2007, August 2007, September 2007, October 2007,

November 2007, May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, August 2009, January 2010,

March 2010, April 2010, June 2010, July 2010, September 2010, November 2010,

July 2011 and April 2012.



mark on the following instances: April 2007, April 2008, May 2008, June 2008,

October 2008, January 2009, February 2011 and December 2011.


gave bearish market: February 2008 to March 2008, April 2011 to May 2011and



gave bullish market: June 2006 to August 2006, May 2007 to June 2007, May 2011

to June 2011 and January 2012 to February 2012.

258

Table 6.16 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of ICICI Bank on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 398.50

May-05 388.95

Jun-05 412.77

Jul-05 455.20

Aug-05 496.25 7.49 91.83

Sep-05 543.15 8.50 1.36 0.00

Oct-05 519.55 6.87 1.34 86.73

Nov-05 523.78 4.42 1.27 85.08

Dec-05 562.91 0.75 1.24 84.77

Jan-06 589.19 5.23 1.19 83.16

Feb-06 597.53 22.30 1.10 76.77

Mar-06 602.15 32.53 1.16 0.00

Apr-06 586.09 8.49 1.12 82.99

May-06 604.62 -19.33 1.07 78.24

Jun-06 501.65 -38.18 0.85 20.92

Jul-06 502.55 -53.76 0.84 16.81

Aug-06 582.55 -59.22 0.97 45.51

Sep-06 642.35 -31.17 1.10 60.73

Oct-06 723.60 3.67 1.20 68.31

Nov-06 838.95 36.43 1.67 0.00

Dec-06 865.47 54.61 1.72 0.00

Jan-07 940.84 45.51 1.62 0.00

Feb-07 944.25 22.28 1.47 0.00

Mar-07 851.75 1.41 1.18 70.46

Apr-07 882.34 -4.02 1.05 59.50

May-07 895.13 -8.61 1.03 56.91

Jun-07 929.52 -23.63 0.99 46.74

Jul-07 964.80 -38.84 1.02 55.00

Aug-07 867.50 -36.83 1.02 53.74

Sep-07 943.70 -27.34 1.07 61.99

Oct-07 1104.43 -4.93 1.23 75.91

Nov-07 1191.52 83.31 1.28 78.69

Dec-07 1210.43 136.24 1.25 77.90

Jan-08 1268.55 85.18 1.46 0.00

Feb-08 1135.58 36.16 1.20 70.95

Mar-08 857.23 24.69 0.78 28.52

Apr-08 833.85 -23.96 0.70 15.05

May-08 882.07 -63.43 0.73 19.65

Jun-08 741.08 -3.79 0.58 7.73

259

Jul-08 616.55 38.68 0.54 7.83

Aug-08 679.97 -5.41 0.79 27.87

Sep-08 631.42 -30.71 0.76 26.22

Oct-08 412.67 -16.88 0.47 10.64

Nov-08 389.00 -20.65 0.52 13.24

Dec-08 409.16 -47.66 0.66 22.31

Jan-09 427.78 -60.17 0.63 11.76

Feb-09 384.32 -65.67 0.61 11.94

Mar-09 321.01 -56.12 0.78 22.92

Apr-09 414.85 -35.62 1.07 55.40

May-09 627.60 -14.13 1.53 75.28

Jun-09 727.43 18.16 1.70 79.20

Jul-09 719.97 43.83 1.87 85.17

Aug-09 743.82 38.44 2.32 98.29

Sep-09 819.93 20.88 1.98 98.22

Oct-09 898.22 25.92 1.43 97.39

Nov-09 882.45 24.87 1.21 88.47

Dec-09 856.65 0.67 1.19 81.09

Jan-10 851.96 -7.83 1.15 76.95

Feb-10 828.24 1.76 1.01 52.80

Mar-10 931.55 7.72 1.04 59.62

Apr-10 952.65 -0.90 1.08 69.65

May-10 880.31 -13.97 1.03 55.26

Jun-10 860.00 -36.56 1.01 51.67

Jul-10 887.17 -52.29 1.07 62.06

Aug-10 974.49 -23.42 1.05 59.41

Sep-10 1080.39 34.32 1.13 70.40

Oct-10 1132.59 68.25 1.29 93.06

Nov-10 1199.73 62.59 1.40 0.00

Dec-10 1125.76 22.94 1.27 80.86

Jan-11 1044.56 -5.03 1.07 59.21

Feb-11 1004.43 -20.20 0.93 37.93

Mar-11 1037.03 -26.45 0.92 33.81

Apr-11 1107.31 6.27 0.92 34.50

May-11 1054.16 44.89 0.94 37.09

Jun-11 1050.62 40.51 1.01 51.52

Jul-11 1059.91 17.85 1.06 66.43

Aug-11 916.18 15.92 0.88 28.42

Sep-11 878.05 -0.56 0.79 3.75

Oct-11 866.47 -55.96 0.82 4.75

Nov-11 795.71 -62.92 0.76 3.40

Dec-11 716.49 -30.46 0.68 0.00

Jan-12 796.82 -13.28 0.87 28.69

Feb-12 934.63 6.54 1.06 57.45

260

Mar-12 898.40 1.04 53.95

Apr-12 869.64 1.09 60.20

May-12 819.04 1.14 65.36

Jun-12 832.68 1.05 56.71



Table 6.16 indicates the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of ICICI

Bank Ltd. Company on the basis of ‘Oscillators’ (monthly basis) from April, 2005

to June, 2012 (study period). The researcher is taking ‘Oscillators’ for the trend







period: September 2005, March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, July 2008,

July 2009, October 2009, March 2010, October 2010 and May 2011.


period: August 2006, July 2007, May 2008, September 2008, February 2009,

January 2010, July 2010, March 2011 and November 2011.



March 2007, December 2007 to March 2008, October 2009 to November 2009,

October 2010 to December 2010 and May 2011 to August 2011.


giving signal of bullish market from August 2006 to September 2006, July 2007 to

October 2007, February 2009 to May 2009, July 2010 to August 2010 and

November 2011 to January 2012.

261



period: September 2005, March 2006, December 2006, November 2007, January

2008, August 2009, April 2010, July 2010, November 2010, July 2011 and February

2012.



November 2005, February 2007 to May 2007, April 2010 to June 2010, November

2010 to January 2011 and February 2012 to March 2012.


which signifies the bullish trends in the market for scrip were: February 2006 to

March 2006, September 2006 to December 2006, August 2007 to November 2007,

December 2007 to January 2008, April 2009 to August 2009, February 2010 to

March 2010, September 2010 to October 2010 and June 2011 to July 2011.


period: July 2006, June 2007, April 2008, July 2008, October 2008, February 2009,

April 2011, September 2011 and December 2011.




mark on the following instance: August 2005, April 2006, March 2007, October

2007, November 2007, February 2008, May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, August

2009, September 2010, October 2010 and December 2010.



mark on the following instances: June 2006, July 2006, March 2008, April 2008,

June 2008, September 2008, October 2008, January 2009, August 2011, September

2011 and November 2011.

262


gave bearish market: April 2010 to June 2010 and February 2012 to March 2012.


gave bullish market: August 2006 to October 2006, August 2007 to September 2007,

February 2010 to March 2010, March 2011 to July 2011.

Table 6.17 Trend Analysis of the Share Prices of Wipro Ltd. on the basis of


Months

Monthly Closing


Apr-05 191.94

May-05 198.61

Jun-05 220.92

Jul-05 215.57

Aug-05 216.44 -2.31 84.83

Sep-05 224.16 -7.92 1.17 87.56

Oct-05 228.87 -9.38 1.15 86.96

Nov-05 246.52 -5.68 1.12 85.28

Dec-05 268.45 -1.43 1.25 0.00

Jan-06 288.51 6.42 1.33 0.00

Feb-06 306.94 17.41 1.37 0.00

Mar-06 317.41 17.91 1.39 0.00

Apr-06 326.25 7.32 1.32 0.00

May-06 305.26 -0.51 1.14 73.36

Jun-06 268.73 -9.86 0.93 39.62

Jul-06 290.62 -16.24 0.95 41.73

Aug-06 306.26 -10.19 0.96 44.63

Sep-06 309.47 -2.07 0.95 41.46

Oct-06 352.60 0.85 1.16 69.66

Nov-06 334.17 5.51 1.24 81.98

Dec-06 348.18 15.12 1.20 80.48

Jan-07 370.94 10.99 1.21 81.85

Feb-07 382.60 10.50 1.24 83.24

Mar-07 343.25 11.50 0.97 45.60

Apr-07 335.76 6.59 1.00 50.83

May-07 326.55 -0.71 0.94 38.04

Jun-07 316.78 -4.50 0.85 15.05

Jul-07 304.62 -5.20 0.80 0.00

Aug-07 280.93 -7.51 0.82 0.00

Sep-07 273.46 -8.74 0.81 0.00

Oct-07 292.86 -1.26 0.90 26.77

263

Nov-07 276.78 5.80 0.87 24.63

Dec-07 303.46 7.23 1.00 49.38

Jan-08 274.78 -4.91 0.98 46.87

Feb-08 257.19 -9.50 0.94 42.50

Mar-08 242.17 -5.07 0.83 25.65

Apr-08 262.40 -0.31 0.95 43.36

May-08 298.97 4.07 0.99 48.10

Jun-08 288.93 19.36 1.05 57.11

Jul-08 244.90 27.45 0.95 45.12

Aug-08 259.34 1.19 1.07 56.85

Sep-08 241.99 -13.54 0.92 41.66

Oct-08 168.04 4.69 0.56 9.04

Nov-08 147.64 -2.08 0.51 8.49

Dec-09 242.82 -16.09 0.99 49.53

Jan-09 140.64 -18.60 0.54 30.80

Feb-09 131.21 -13.14 0.54 31.61

Mar-09 136.18 -26.31 0.81 43.14

Apr-09 171.58 -25.25 1.16 54.84

May-09 224.58 -11.24 0.92 45.55

Jun-09 235.93 -0.15 1.68 91.74

Jul-09 253.72 5.93 1.93 0.00

Aug-09 309.68 2.63 2.27 0.00

Sep-09 337.20 2.86 1.97 0.00

Oct-09 353.13 12.44 1.57 0.00

Nov-09 374.65 13.11 1.59 0.00

Dec-09 397.27 6.16 1.57 0.00

Jan-10 419.22 11.47 1.35 0.00

Feb-10 396.70 14.53 1.18 78.45

Mar-10 427.11 8.47 1.21 81.07

Apr-10 423.31 -0.38 1.13 74.02

May-10 395.05 -1.86 0.99 48.96

Jun-10 397.26 -8.52 0.95 37.41

Jul-10 403.69 -11.52 1.02 54.92

Aug-10 414.76 -2.85 0.97 38.07

Sep-10 423.19 -2.20 1.00 49.89

Oct-10 456.95 5.07 1.16 0.00

Nov-10 423.48 9.30 1.07 64.07

Dec-10 460.48 4.51 1.14 72.95

Jan-11 464.68 0.16 1.12 71.36

Feb-11 431.86 7.59 1.02 53.07

Mar-11 449.05 8.32 0.98 46.83

Apr-11 462.39 9.07 1.09 68.61

May-11 439.68 18.80 0.95 38.48

Jun-11 426.31 11.02 0.92 30.71

264

Jul-11 413.02 -7.22 0.96 38.21

Aug-11 347.58 -19.61 0.77 10.41

Sep-11 339.04 -24.12 0.73 0.00

Oct-11 352.03 -25.54 0.80 11.43

Nov-11 374.02 -13.59 0.88 28.61

Dec-11 402.74 3.91 0.98 46.27

Jan-12 408.91 13.48 1.18 89.11

Feb-12 433.97 17.24 1.28 0.00

Mar-12 429.13 1.22 94.42

Apr-12 426.38 1.14 88.76

May-12 400.21 0.99 48.05

Jun-12 399.51 0.98 42.1



Table 6.17 reveals the trend analysis of monthly closing stock prices of Wipro Ltd.









period: March 2006, December 2006, December 2007, July 2008, October 2008,

July 2009, November 2009, February 2010, November 2010 and May 2010.


period: October 2005, July 2006, September 2007, February 2008, September

2008, January 2009, March 2009, July 2010 and October 2011.


giving a signal of bearish market from December 2006 to April 2007, May 2011 to

June 2011.

265


giving signal of bullish market from October 2005 to December 2005, July 2006 to

September 2006, September 2007 to October 2007, February 2008 to April 2008,

March 2009 to June 2009, July 2010 to September 2010 and October 2011 to

November 2011.



period: September 2005, March 2006, November 2006, February 2007, April

2007,December 2007, June 2008, August 2008, April 2009, August 2009,

November 2009, March 2010, July 2010, November 2010, December 2010, April

2011 and February 2012.


which signifies the bearish trends in the market for scrip were: March 2006 to May

2006, March 2010 to April 2010, October 2010 to November 2010 and February

2012 to April 2012.



February 2006, December 2006 to February 2007 and October 2009 to November

2009.


period: June 2006, September 2006, July 2007, September 2007, November 2007,

March 2008, July 2008, November 2008, January 2009, May 2009, June 2010,

August 2010, March 2011, June 2011, September 2011 and May 2012.




mark on the following instance: September 2005, May 2006, November 2006,

January 2007, February 2007, June 2009, February 2010, March 2010, December

2010, January 2012 and March 2012.

266



mark on the following instances: June 2007, October 2007, November 2007, March

2008, October 2008, November 2008, August 2011 and November 2011.


gave bearish market: April 2007 to May 2007, December 2007 to February 2008,

December 2008 to January 2009 and April 2011 to June 2011.


gave bullish market: June 2006 to August 2006, September 2006 to October 2006,

July 2008 to August 2008, February 2009 to April 2009, June 2010 to July 2010 and


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