chapter 7 corporate finance
TRANSCRIPT
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© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights
Interest Rates andBond Valuation
Lecture 6
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7.2 Lecture Outline
• Bonds and Bond Valuation• Bond Markets
• Inflation and Interest Rates
– Fisher Effect• Determinants of Bond Yields
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7. Bond Definitions
• Bond• !ar "alue #face "alue$
• %ou&on rate
• %ou&on &a'ment• Maturit' date
• Yield or Yield to maturit'
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7.( Present Value of Cash Flows as Rates Change
• Bond Value ) !V of cou&ons * !V of &ar • Bond Value ) !V annuit' * !V of lum& sum
• Remem+er, as interest rates increase the !V-s
decrease• o, as interest rates increase, +ond &rices
decrease and "ice "ersa
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7./ Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual Coupons
• %onsider a +ond 0ith a cou&on rate of 13 andcou&ons &aid annuall'. 4he &ar "alue is 51
and the +ond has / 'ears to maturit'. 4he 'ield to
maturit' is 113. 6hat is the "alue of the +ond
– 8sin9 the formula:
• B ) !V of annuit' * !V of lum& sum
• B ) 1;1 – 1?./? * /?.(/ ) ?>.(
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7.> Graphical Relationship Between Price andYieldto!aturit"
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7.7 Bond Prices# Relationship Between Couponand Yield
• If Y4M ) cou&on rate, then &ar "alue ) +ond &rice
• If Y4M @ cou&on rate, then &ar "alue @ +ond
&rice – 6h' – ellin9 at a discount, called a discount +ond
• If Y4M A cou&on rate, then &ar "alue A +ond &rice
– 6h'
– ellin9 at a &remium, called a &remium +ond
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7. $he BondPricing %&uation
t
t
r$#1
F
r
r$#1
1C1
%ValueBond ++
+=
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7.? %'a!ple ()*
%ou&on rate ) 1(3, semiannual cou&onsY4M ) 1>3
Maturit' ) 7 'ears
!ar "alue ) 51Find &resent "alues +ased on the &a'ment &eriod
– o0 man' cou&on &a'ments are there
– 6hat is the semiannual cou&on &a'ment – 6hat is the semiannual 'ield
– B ) 7;1 – 1
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7.1 Interest Rate Ris+
• !rice Risk – %han9e in &rice due to chan9es in interest rates
– on9Cterm +onds ha"e more &rice risk than shortC
term +onds
• Rein"estment Rate Risk
– 8ncertaint' concernin9 rates at 0hich cash flo0s
can +e rein"ested
– hortCterm +onds ha"e more rein"estment rate risk
than lon9Cterm +onds
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7.11 Figure (),
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7.12 Co!puting Yieldto!aturit"
• YieldCtoCmaturit' is the rate im&lied +' thecurrent +ond &rice
• Findin9 the Y4M reuires trial and error if'ou do not ha"e a financial calculator and is
similar to the &rocess for findin9 r 0ith anannuit'
• %onsider a +ond 0ith a 13 annual cou&on
rate, 1/ 'ears to maturit' and a &ar "alue of51. 4he current &rice is 5?2.?. – 6ill the 'ield +e more or less than 13
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7.17 Factors Affecting Re&uired Return
• Default risk &remium and an'thin9 else thataffects the risk of the cash flo0s to the +ondholders
• 4aGa+ilit' &remium – remem+er munici&al
"ersus taGa+le• iuidit' &remium – +onds that ha"e more
freuent tradin9 0ill 9enerall' ha"e lo0er
reuired returns
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7.1 Bond Pricing $heore!s
• Bonds of similar risk #and maturit'$ 0ill +e &riced to 'ield a+out the same return,
re9ardless of the cou&on rate
•If 'ou kno0 the &rice of one +ond, 'ou canestimate its Y4M and use that to find the &rice
of the second +ond
• 4his is a useful conce&t that can +e transferred
to "aluin9 assets other than +onds
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7.1? %'a!ple ().
• H taGa+le +ond has a 'ield of 3 and amunici&al #not taGa+le$ +ond has a 'ield of >3
– If 'ou are in a (3 taG +racket, 0hich +ond do
'ou &refer
• 3#1 C .($ ) (.3
• 4he afterCtaG return on the cor&orate +ond is (.3,
com&ared to a >3 return on the munici&al
– Ht 0hat taG rate 0ould 'ou +e indifferent +et0eenthe t0o +onds
• 3#1 – 4$ ) >3
• 4 ) 2/3
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7.2 Bond /uotations
– 6hat com&an' are 0e lookin9 at
– 6hat is the cou&on rate If the +ond has a
51 face "alue, 0hat is the cou&on &a'ment
each 'ear
– 6hen does the +ond mature
– 6hat is the current 'ield o0 is it com&uted
– o0 man' +onds trade that da'
– 6hat is the uoted &rice
– o0 much did the &rice chan9e from the
&re"ious da'
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7.21 $reasur" /uotations
– 6hat is the cou&on rate on the +ond
– 6hen does the +ond mature
– 6hat is the +id &rice 6hat does this mean
– 6hat is the ask &rice 6hat does this mean
– o0 much did the &rice chan9e from the &re"ious
da'
– 6hat is the 'ield +ased on the ask &rice
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7.22 Inflation and Interest Rates
• Definition of Inflation• Real rate of interest – chan9e in &urchasin9
&o0er
• ominal rate of interest – uoted rate ofinterest, chan9e in &urchasin9 &o0er and
inflation
• 4he eG ante nominal rate of interest includesour desired real rate of return &lus an
adJustment for eG&ected inflation
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7.2 $he Fisher %ffect
• 4he Fisher Effect defines the relationshi& +et0een real rates, nominal rates and inflation
• #1 * R$ ) #1 * r$#1 * h$, 0here
– R ) nominal rate – r ) real rate
– h ) eG&ected inflation rate
• H&&roGimation – R ) r * h
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7.2( %'a!ple ()0
• If 0e reuire a 13 real return and 0e eG&ectinflation to +e 3, 0hat is the nominal rate
• R ) #1.1$#1.$ – 1 ) .1 ) 1.3
• H&&roGimation: R ) 13 * 3 ) 13• Because the real return and eG&ected inflation
are relati"el' hi9h, there is si9nificant
difference +et0een the actual Fisher Effectand the a&&roGimation.
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7.2/ $er! 1tructure of Interest Rates
• 4erm structure is the relationshi& +et0een timeto maturit' and 'ields, all else eual
• It is im&ortant to reco9niKe that 0e &ull out the
effect of default risk, different cou&ons, etc.
• Yield cur"e – 9ra&hical re&resentation of the
term structure
– ormal – u&0ardCslo&in9, lon9Cterm 'ields are
hi9her than shortCterm 'ields
– In"erted – do0n0ardCslo&in9, lon9Cterm 'ields are
lo0er than shortCterm 'ields
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7.2> Figure ()0 2 3pward1loping Yield Cur4e
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7.27 Figure ()0 2 Downward1loping Yield Cur4e
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7.2 Figure ()( 2 $reasur" Yield Cur4e 5a" **6 ,77*