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    © 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights

    Interest Rates andBond Valuation

    Lecture 6

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    7.2 Lecture Outline

    • Bonds and Bond Valuation• Bond Markets

    • Inflation and Interest Rates

     – Fisher Effect• Determinants of Bond Yields

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    7. Bond Definitions

    • Bond• !ar "alue #face "alue$

    • %ou&on rate

    • %ou&on &a'ment• Maturit' date

    • Yield or Yield to maturit'

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    7.( Present Value of Cash Flows as Rates Change

    • Bond Value ) !V of cou&ons * !V of &ar • Bond Value ) !V annuit' * !V of lum& sum

    • Remem+er, as interest rates increase the !V-s

    decrease• o, as interest rates increase, +ond &rices

    decrease and "ice "ersa

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    7./ Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual Coupons

    • %onsider a +ond 0ith a cou&on rate of 13 andcou&ons &aid annuall'. 4he &ar "alue is 51

    and the +ond has / 'ears to maturit'. 4he 'ield to

    maturit' is 113. 6hat is the "alue of the +ond

     – 8sin9 the formula:

    • B ) !V of annuit' * !V of lum& sum

    • B ) 1;1 – 1?./? * /?.(/ ) ?>.(

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    7.> Graphical Relationship Between Price andYieldto!aturit"

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    7.7 Bond Prices# Relationship Between Couponand Yield

    • If Y4M ) cou&on rate, then &ar "alue ) +ond &rice

    • If Y4M @ cou&on rate, then &ar "alue @ +ond

     &rice – 6h' – ellin9 at a discount, called a discount +ond

    • If Y4M A cou&on rate, then &ar "alue A +ond &rice

     – 6h'

     – ellin9 at a &remium, called a &remium +ond

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    7. $he BondPricing %&uation

    t

    t

    r$#1

    F

    r$#1

    1C1

    %ValueBond ++

    +=

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    7.? %'a!ple ()*

    %ou&on rate ) 1(3, semiannual cou&onsY4M ) 1>3

    Maturit' ) 7 'ears

    !ar "alue ) 51Find &resent "alues +ased on the &a'ment &eriod

     – o0 man' cou&on &a'ments are there

     – 6hat is the semiannual cou&on &a'ment – 6hat is the semiannual 'ield

     – B ) 7;1 – 1

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    7.1 Interest Rate Ris+

    • !rice Risk  – %han9e in &rice due to chan9es in interest rates

     – on9Cterm +onds ha"e more &rice risk than shortC

    term +onds

    • Rein"estment Rate Risk 

     – 8ncertaint' concernin9 rates at 0hich cash flo0s

    can +e rein"ested

     – hortCterm +onds ha"e more rein"estment rate risk

    than lon9Cterm +onds

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    7.11 Figure (),

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    7.12 Co!puting Yieldto!aturit"

    • YieldCtoCmaturit' is the rate im&lied +' thecurrent +ond &rice

    • Findin9 the Y4M reuires trial and error if'ou do not ha"e a financial calculator and is

    similar to the &rocess for findin9 r 0ith anannuit'

    • %onsider a +ond 0ith a 13 annual cou&on

    rate, 1/ 'ears to maturit' and a &ar "alue of51. 4he current &rice is 5?2.?. – 6ill the 'ield +e more or less than 13

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    7.17 Factors Affecting Re&uired Return

    • Default risk &remium and an'thin9 else thataffects the risk of the cash flo0s to the +ondholders

    • 4aGa+ilit' &remium – remem+er munici&al

    "ersus taGa+le• iuidit' &remium – +onds that ha"e more

    freuent tradin9 0ill 9enerall' ha"e lo0er

    reuired returns

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    7.1 Bond Pricing $heore!s

    • Bonds of similar risk #and maturit'$ 0ill +e &riced to 'ield a+out the same return,

    re9ardless of the cou&on rate

    •If 'ou kno0 the &rice of one +ond, 'ou canestimate its Y4M and use that to find the &rice

    of the second +ond

    • 4his is a useful conce&t that can +e transferred

    to "aluin9 assets other than +onds

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    7.1? %'a!ple ().

    • H taGa+le +ond has a 'ield of 3 and amunici&al #not taGa+le$ +ond has a 'ield of >3

     – If 'ou are in a (3 taG +racket, 0hich +ond do

    'ou &refer

    • 3#1 C .($ ) (.3

    • 4he afterCtaG return on the cor&orate +ond is (.3,

    com&ared to a >3 return on the munici&al

     – Ht 0hat taG rate 0ould 'ou +e indifferent +et0eenthe t0o +onds

    • 3#1 – 4$ ) >3

    • 4 ) 2/3

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    7.2 Bond /uotations

     – 6hat com&an' are 0e lookin9 at

     – 6hat is the cou&on rate If the +ond has a

    51 face "alue, 0hat is the cou&on &a'ment

    each 'ear

     – 6hen does the +ond mature

     – 6hat is the current 'ield o0 is it com&uted

     – o0 man' +onds trade that da'

     – 6hat is the uoted &rice

     – o0 much did the &rice chan9e from the

     &re"ious da'

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    7.21 $reasur" /uotations

     – 6hat is the cou&on rate on the +ond

     – 6hen does the +ond mature

     – 6hat is the +id &rice 6hat does this mean

     – 6hat is the ask &rice 6hat does this mean

     – o0 much did the &rice chan9e from the &re"ious

    da'

     – 6hat is the 'ield +ased on the ask &rice

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    7.22 Inflation and Interest Rates

    • Definition of Inflation• Real rate of interest – chan9e in &urchasin9

     &o0er 

    •  ominal rate of interest – uoted rate ofinterest, chan9e in &urchasin9 &o0er and

    inflation

    • 4he eG ante nominal rate of interest includesour desired real rate of return &lus an

    adJustment for eG&ected inflation

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    7.2 $he Fisher %ffect

    • 4he Fisher Effect defines the relationshi& +et0een real rates, nominal rates and inflation

    • #1 * R$ ) #1 * r$#1 * h$, 0here

     – R ) nominal rate – r ) real rate

     – h ) eG&ected inflation rate

    • H&&roGimation – R ) r * h

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    7.2( %'a!ple ()0

    • If 0e reuire a 13 real return and 0e eG&ectinflation to +e 3, 0hat is the nominal rate

    • R ) #1.1$#1.$ – 1 ) .1 ) 1.3

    • H&&roGimation: R ) 13 * 3 ) 13• Because the real return and eG&ected inflation

    are relati"el' hi9h, there is si9nificant

    difference +et0een the actual Fisher Effectand the a&&roGimation.

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    7.2/ $er! 1tructure of Interest Rates

    • 4erm structure is the relationshi& +et0een timeto maturit' and 'ields, all else eual

    • It is im&ortant to reco9niKe that 0e &ull out the

    effect of default risk, different cou&ons, etc.

    • Yield cur"e – 9ra&hical re&resentation of the

    term structure

     –  ormal – u&0ardCslo&in9, lon9Cterm 'ields are

    hi9her than shortCterm 'ields

     – In"erted – do0n0ardCslo&in9, lon9Cterm 'ields are

    lo0er than shortCterm 'ields

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    7.2> Figure ()0 2 3pward1loping Yield Cur4e

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    7.27 Figure ()0 2 Downward1loping Yield Cur4e

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    7.2 Figure ()( 2 $reasur" Yield Cur4e 5a" **6 ,77*