chapter 8 – 1 chapter 8: bivariate regression and correlation overview the scatter diagram two...

Chapter 8 – 1

Chapter 8: Bivariate Regression and Correlation

• Overview• The Scatter Diagram• Two Examples: Education & Prestige• Correlation Coefficient• Bivariate Linear Regression Line• SPSS Output• Interpretation• Covariance

Chapter 8 – 2

Overview

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Independent Variables

Nominal Interval

Considers the distribution of one variable across the categories of another variable

Considers the difference between the mean of one group on a variable with another group

Considers how a change in a variable affects a discrete outcome

Considers the degree to which a change in one variable results in a change in another

Chapter 8 – 3

Overview

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Nominal Interval

Considers the difference between the mean of one group on a variable with another group



You already know how to deal with two

nominal variables

Lambda

Chapter 8 – 4

Overview

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Nominal Interval




nominal variables

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Confidence IntervalsT-Test

We will deal with this later in the course

TODAY!

Chapter 8 – 5

Overview

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Nominal Interval


RegressionCorrelation


nominal variables

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We will deal with this later in the course TODAY!

What about this cell?

Chapter 8 – 6

Overview

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Nominal Interval

Logistic Regression

RegressionCorrelation


nominal variables

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We will deal with this later in the course TODAY!

This cell is not covered in this course

Chapter 8 – 7

General Examples

Does a change in one variable significantly affect another variable?

Do two scores tend to co-vary positively (high on one score high on the other, low on one, low on the other)?

Do two scores tend to co-vary negatively (high on one score low on the other; low on one, hi on the other)?

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Nominal Interval

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Chapter 8 – 8

Specific Examples

Does getting older significantly influence a person’s political views?

Does marital satisfaction increase with length of marriage?

How does an additional year of education affect one’s earnings?

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Chapter 8 – 9

Scatter Diagrams

• Scatter Diagram (scatterplot)—a visual method used to display a relationship between two interval-ratio variables.

• Typically, the independent variable is placed on the X-axis (horizontal axis), while the dependent variable is placed on the Y-axis (vertical axis.)

Chapter 8 – 10

Scatter Diagram Example

• The data…

Chapter 8 – 11

Scatter Diagram Example

Chapter 8 – 12

A Scatter Diagram Example of a Negative Relationship

Chapter 8 – 13

Linear Relationships• Linear relationship – A relationship between two

interval-ratio variables in which the observations displayed in a scatter diagram can be approximated with a straight line.

• Deterministic (perfect) linear relationship – A relationship between two interval-ratio variables in which all the observations (the dots) fall along a straight line. The line provides a predicted value of Y (the vertical axis) for any value of X (the horizontal axis.

Chapter 8 – 14

Graph the data below and examine the relationship:

Chapter 8 – 15

The Seniority-Salary Relationship

Chapter 8 – 16

Example: Education & Prestige

Does education predict occupational prestige? If so, then the higher the respondent’s level of education, as measured by number of years of schooling, the greater the prestige of the respondent’s occupation.Take a careful look at the scatter diagram on the next slide and see if you think that there exists a relationship between these two variables…

Chapter 8 – 17

Scatterplot of Prestige by Education

Chapter 8 – 18

Example: Education & Prestige

• The scatter diagram data can be represented by a straight line, therefore there does exist a relationship between these two variables.

• In addition, since occupational prestige becomes higher, as years of education increases, we can say also that the relationship is a positive one.

Chapter 8 – 19

Take your best guess?

The mean age for U.S. residents.

Now if I tell you that this person owns a skateboard, would you change your guess? (Of course!)

With quantitative analyses we are generally trying to predict or take our best guess at value of the dependent variable. One way to assess the relationship between two variables is to consider the degree to which the extra information of the second variable makes your guess better. If someone owns a skateboard, that is likely to indicate to us that s/he is younger and we may be able to guess closer to the actual value.

If you know nothing else about a person, except that he or she lives in United States and I asked you to his or her age, what would you guess?

Chapter 8 – 20

Take your best guess?

• Similar to the example of age and the skateboard, we can take a much better guess at someone’s occupational prestige, if we have information about her/his years or level of education.

Chapter 8 – 21

Equation for a Straight LineY= a + bX

where a = interceptb = slopeY = dependent variableX = independent variable

X

Y

a

riserunrise run = b

Chapter 8 – 22

Bivariate Linear Regression EquationY = a + bX

• Y-intercept (a)—The point where the regression line crosses the Y-axis, or the value of Y when X=0.

• Slope (b)—The change in variable Y (the dependent variable) with a unit change in X (the independent variable.)

The estimates of a and b will have the property that the sum of the squared differences between the observed and predicted (Y-Y)2 is minimized using ordinary least squares (OLS). Thus the regression line represents the Best Linear and Unbiased Estimators (BLUE) of the intercept and slope.

ˆ

^

Chapter 8 – 23

Model Summary

.559a .313 .312 11.90Model1

R R SquareAdjusted R

Square

Std. Errorof the

Estimate

Predictors: (Constant), HIGHEST YEAR OF SCHOOLCOMPLETED

a.

ANOVAb

87633.680 1 87633.680 619.305 .000a

192727.378 1362 141.503

280361.058 1363

Regression

Residual

Total

Model1

Sum ofSquares df

MeanSquare F Sig.

Predictors: (Constant), HIGHEST YEAR OF SCHOOL COMPLETEDa.

Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1980)b.

SPSS Regression Output (GSS)Education & Prestige

Chapter 8 – 24

Coefficientsa

6.120 1.531 3.997 .000

2.762 .111 .559 24.886 .000

(Constant)

HIGHEST YEAR OFSCHOOL COMPLETED

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.

Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1980)a.

Now let’s interpret the SPSS output...

SPSS Regression Output (GSS)Education & Prestige

Chapter 8 – 25

The Regression EquationCoefficientsa

6.120 1.531 3.997 .000

2.762 .111 .559 24.886 .000

(Constant)


Model1

B Std. Error


Beta

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.


Prediction Equation:

Y = 6.120 + 2.762(X)This line represents the predicted values for Y for any and all values of X

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Chapter 8 – 26

Prediction Equation:

Y = 6.120 + 2.762(X)This line represents the predicted values for Y for any and all values of X

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Coefficientsa

6.120 1.531 3.997 .000

2.762 .111 .559 24.886 .000

(Constant)


Model1

B Std. Error


Beta

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.


The Regression Equation

Chapter 8 – 27

• If a respondent had zero years of schooling, this model predicts that his occupational prestige score would be 6.120 points.

• For each additional year of education, our model predicts a 2.762 point increase in occupational prestige.

Y = 6.120 + 2.762(X)ˆ

Interpreting the regression equation

Chapter 8 – 28

Ordinary Least Squares

• Least-squares line (best fitting line) – A line where the errors sum of squares, or e2, is at a minimum.

• Least-squares method – The technique that produces the least squares line.

Chapter 8 – 29

Estimating the slope: b

• The bivariate regression coefficient or the slope of the regression line can be obtained from the observed X and Y scores.

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Chapter 8 – 30

Covariance =

Variance of X =

Covariance of X and Y—a measure of how X and Y vary together. Covariance will be close to zero when X and Y are unrelated. It will be greater than zero when the relationship is positive and less than zero when the relationship is negative.

Variance of X—we have talked a lot about variance in the dependent variable. This is simply the variance for the independent variable

Covariance and Variance

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Chapter 8 – 31

Estimating the Intercept

XbYa

The regression line always goes through the point corresponding to the mean of both X and Y, by definition.

So we utilize this information to solve for a:

Chapter 8 – 32

Back to the original scatterplot:

Chapter 8 – 33

A Representative Line

Chapter 8 – 34

Other Representative Lines

Chapter 8 – 35

Calculating the

Regression Equation

Chapter 8 – 36

Calculating the

Regression Equation

Chapter 8 – 37

The Least Squares Line!

Chapter 8 – 38

Summary: Properties of the Regression Line

• Represents the predicted values for Y for any and all values of X.

• Always goes through the point corresponding to the mean of both X and Y.

• It is the best fitting line in that it minimizes the sum of the squared deviations.

• Has a slope that can be positive or negative; null hypothesis is that the slope is zero.

Chapter 8 – 39

Coefficient of Determination

• Coefficient of Determination (r2) – A PRE measure reflecting the proportional reduction of error that results from using the linear regression model. It reflects the proportion of the total variation in the dependent variable, Y, explained by the independent variable, X.

Chapter 8 – 40


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YianceXiance

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Chapter 8 – 41


Chapter 8 – 42

• Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (r) — The square root of r2. It is a measure of association between two interval-ratio variables.

• Symmetrical measure—No specification of independent or dependent variables.

• Ranges from –1.0 to +1.0. The sign () indicates direction. The closer the number is to 1.0 the stronger the association between X and Y.

)Y.(d.s*)X.(d.s

)Y,X(covr

The Correlation Coefficient

Chapter 8 – 43

r = 0 means that there is no association between the two variables.


Y

X

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Chapter 8 – 44


Y

X

r = +1


r = +1 means a perfect positive correlation.

Chapter 8 – 45


Y

X

r = –1


r = +1 means a perfect positive correlation.

r = –1 means a perfect negative correlation.

chapter 8 – 1 chapter 8: bivariate regression and correlation overview the scatter diagram two...

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