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8
Climate Models
and Their Evaluation
Coordinating Lead Authors:David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK)
Lead Authors:
Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Ficheet (Belgium), John Fye (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation),
Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan),
Karl E. Taylor (USA)
Contributing Authors:
K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA),
C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany),
P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Duresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK),A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK),
R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia)
K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium),
W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA),
M. Lati (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK),
T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstor (Germany),
S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schr (Switzerland),
A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. Slater (USA, Australia), J. Slingo (UK), D. Smith (UK),
B. Soden (USA), W. Stern (USA), D.A. Stone (UK), K.Sudo (Japan), T. Takemura (Japan), G. Tselioudis (USA, Greece), M. Webb (UK),
M. Wild (Switzerland)
Review Editors:Elisa Manzini (Italy), Taroh Matsuno (Japan), Bryant McAvaney (Australia)
This chapter should be cited as:
Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Ficheet, J. Fye, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouer, A. Sumi
and K.E. Taylor, 2007: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In:Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning,
Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
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Supplementary Figures for Section 8.3These gures are cited as supplementary material in Chapter 8, Section 3. They contain supportive analyses that, due to space
limitations, could not be shown in the main report. There are a number of places in the text where the reader is encouraged to
view these supplementary gures. The results presented here support the points made in the report. The gures present results
from individual models, which are the basis for the construction of the multi-model averages and model spreads shown in section
8.3. References cited here are given at the end of the main chapter text.Note that results from some models have only recently become available and may not be included here.
Figure S8.1: Surace temperature:
Each page o gure S8.1a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean sea surace temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surace air temperature
climatology (C).
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (C). All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (C).
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Each page o gure S8.1b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean sea surace temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surace air temperature climatology (C).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (C), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the sum o the squares
o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (C), simulated minus observed.The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surfaceair tempeature over land for 19611990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (1.8 C).
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Figure S8.2: Surace temperature standard deviation:
Each page o gure S8.2a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed standard deviation o sea surace temperature (SST) and, over land, surace air temperature (C),
computed over the climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (C).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (C).
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Each page o gure S8.2b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed standard deviation o sea surace temperature (SST) and, over land, surace air temperature (C), computed over the
climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (C), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the sum o the squares
o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (C), simulated minus observed.
The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surfaceair temperature over land for 19611990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (1.8 C).
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Figure S8.3: Diurnal range o surace air temperature over land:
Each page o gure S8.3a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed diurnal range o surace air temperature over land, annual averaged (C).
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (C).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (C).
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Each page o gure S8.3b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed diurnal range o surace air temperature over land, annual averaged (C).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (C), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the sum
o the squares o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
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Figure S8.3c shows:
Diurnal range o surace air temperature, averaged zonally over land areas and averaged annually.
The observations are from the CRU surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (Mitchell and Jones, 2005), and the
model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations are unreliable over Greenland.
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Figure S8.4: Zonal mean air temperature cross-sections:
Each page o gure S8.4a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (oC).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (oC).
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PCM
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
UKMO-HadCM3
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
UKMO-HadGEM1
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Mean Model
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Air Temperature
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
ERA40
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
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Each page o gure S8.4b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (oC), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (oC), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the sum
o the squares o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (oC), simulated minus observed.
The observational estimate is from years 1980-1999 of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005), and the model
climatologies are calculated for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
BCC-CM1
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
CCSM3
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
CGCM3.1(T47)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
CGCM3.1(T63)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
CNRM-CM3
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
CSIRO-Mk3.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
ECHO-G
Mean Model
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Air Temperature Differences
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Typical Error
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 301000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
ERA40
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 301000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
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-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
FGOALS-g1.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
GFDL-CM2.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
GFDL-CM2.1
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
GISS-AOM
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
GISS-EH
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
GISS-ER
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
INM-CM3.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
IPSL-CM4
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
MIROC3.2(hires)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
Mean Model
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Air Temperature Differences
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Typical Error
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
ERA40
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
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-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
MIROC3.2(medres)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
PCM
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
UKMO-HadCM3
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
-7.5
-6
-4.5
-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
UKMO-HadGEM1
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Mean Model
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
Air Temperature Differences
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Typical Error
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
ERA40
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
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Figures S8.5: Zonal mean shortwave radiation reected to space:
The rst page o gure S8.5 shows:
Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged shortwave radiation refected to space.
90S6030EQ306090N
Latitude
25
50
75
100
125
150
ReflectedSWR
adiationatTOA(Wm
-2)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)
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The second page o gure S8.5 shows:
Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged shortwave radiation refected to space.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 19851989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
90S6030EQ306090NLatitude
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
SWR
adiationError(Wm
-2)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-GBCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1Multi-Model Mean
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Figure S8.6: Shortwave radiation reected to space:
Each page o gure S8.6a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed shortwave radiation refected to space (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).
BCC-CM1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Outgoing SW RadiationMean Model
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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180
200
ERBE
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FGOALS-g1.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Outgoing SW RadiationMean Model
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
ERBE
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MIROC3.2(medres)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 PCM
UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Outgoing SW RadiationMean Model
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
ERBE
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Each page o gure S8.6b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed shortwave radiation refected to space (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the
sum o the squares o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 19851989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
BCC-CM1
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Typical Error
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
ERBE
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
FGOALS-g1.0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Typical Error
0
20
40
60
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ERBE
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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50
MIROC3.2(medres)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 PCM
UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Typical Error
0
20
40
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140
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ERBE
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Figure S8. 7: Zonal mean outgoing longwave radiation:
The rst page o gure S8.7 shows:
Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.
90S6030EQ306090NLatitude
100
150
200
250
300
LWR
adiationatTOA(Wm
-2)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)
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The second page o gure S8.7 shows:
Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 19851989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
90S6030EQ306090NLatitude
-20
-15
-10
-5
05
10
15
20
LWR
adiationError(Wm
-2)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-GBCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ERINM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1Multi-Model Mean
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Figure S8.8: Outgoing longwave radiation:
Each page o gure S8.8a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).
BCC-CM1
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Outgoing LW RadiationMean Model
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300
FGOALS-g1.0
100
120
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160
180
200
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240
260
280
300
GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Outgoing LW RadiationMean Model
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MIROC3.2(medres)
100
120
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260
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300
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 PCM
UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Outgoing LW RadiationMean Model
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ERBE
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Each page o gure S8.8b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the
sum o the squares o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 19851989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations in the multi-model dataset at PCMDI.
BCC-CM1
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Typical Error
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50
FGOALS-g1.0
-50
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Typical Error
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MIROC3.2(medres)
-50
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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MRI-CGCM2.3.2 PCM
UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBEMean Model
0
5
10
15
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30
35
40
45
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Typical Error
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Figure S8.9: Precipitation:
Each page o gure S8.9a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation (cm).
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (cm).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (cm).
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
BCC-CM1 BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Annual PrecipitationMean Model
0
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30
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120
150
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240
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300
330
FGOALS-g1.0 GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Annual PrecipitationMean Model
0
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MIROC3.2(medres) MRI-CGCM2.3.2 PCM
UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Annual PrecipitationMean Model
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Each page o gure S8.9b shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation climatology (cm).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (cm), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (cm), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root o the sum
o the squares o individual model errors, divided by the number o models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (cm), simulated minus observed.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 19801999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.
-150
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
BCC-CM1 BCCR-BCM2.0 CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47) CGCM3.1(T63) CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0 ECHAM5/MPI-OM ECHO-G
Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAPMean Model
0
15
30
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135
150
Typical Error
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FGOALS-g1.0 GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM GISS-EH GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2(hires)
Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAPMean Model
0
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Typical Error
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UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO-HadGEM1
Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAPMean Model
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Typical Error
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Figure S8.10: Zonal mean precipitation:
The rst page o gure S8.10 shows:
Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged precipitation amount.
90S6030EQ306090N
Latitude
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
AnnualPrec
ipitation(cm)
BCC-CM1BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (CMAP)
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The second page gure S8.10 shows:
Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged precipitation amount.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 19801999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.
90S6030EQ306090N Latitude
-100
-50
0
50
100
AnnualPrecipitationError(cm)
BCC-CM1BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-GBCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
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Figure S8.11: Zonal mean specifc humidity cross-sections:
Each page o gure S8.11a shows:
Upper let panel: Observed annual mean specic humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Corresponding eld averaged over the multi-model ensemble (g/kg).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (g/kg).
BCC-CM1
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.6
3.2
6.4
12.8
25.6
51.2
102.4
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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100
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12
8
0
0.1
0.2
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51.2
102.4
CCSM3
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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100
0
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0.2
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1.6
3.2
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51.2
102.4
CGCM3.1(T47)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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100
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20
12
8
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
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51.2
102.4
CGCM3.1(T63)
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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8
CNRM-CM3
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
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1.6
3.2
6.4
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25.6
51.2
102.4
CSIRO-Mk3.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
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3.2
6.4
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25.6
51.2
102.4
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
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20
12
8
ECHO-G
Mean Model
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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10
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500
100
4
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12
8
Specific Humidity
0
0.1
0.2
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3.2
6.4
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51.2
102.4
ERA40
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
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100
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8
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0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.6
3.2
6.4
12.8
25.6
51.2
102.4
FGOALS-g1.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.6
3.2
6.4
12.8
25.6
51.2
102.4
GFDL-CM2.0
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500
100
4
20
12
8
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.6
3.2
6.4
12.8
25.6
51.2
102.4
GFDL-CM2.1
EQ 30 60 90S90N 60 30
1000
200
10
300
700
500