chapter10 capital budgeting decision criteria and real options
TRANSCRIPT
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CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Chapter 10:
Capital Budgeting: Decision Criteria and Real Options
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INTRODUCTION This chapter looks at capital budgeting decision models It discusses and illustrates their relative strengths and
weaknesses It examines project review and post-audit procedures, and
traces a sample project through the capital budgeting process
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TYPES OF CAPITAL BUDGETING CRITERIA
Net present value (NPV)
Profitability index (PI)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Payback period (PB)
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NET PRESENT VALUE
Present value of the stream of future cash flows derived from a project minus the project’s net investment
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( )=
= −
= −+
∑
NetCashFlows
nt
tt 1
NPV PV Net Investment
Net Cash FlowsNPV Net Investment
1 k
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CHARACTERISTICS OF NET PRESENT VALUE
Considers the time value of money
Absolute measure of wealth Positive NPVs increase owner’s wealth Negative NPVs decrease owner’s wealth
NPV not easily understood
Assumes that cash flows over the project’s life can be reinvested at the cost of capital, k
Does not consider the value of real options
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PROFITABILITY INDEX Ratio of the present value of future cash flows over the life of
the project to the net investment
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( )= +=
∑n
tt
t 1
Net Cash Flow
1 kPI
Net Investment
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PROFITABILITY INDEX CHARACTERISTICS
Relative measure showing wealth increase per dollar of investment
Accept when PI > 1; reject when PI ≤ 1.
Considers the time value of money
Assumes cash flows are reinvested at k
If NPV and PI criteria disagree, with no capital rationing, NPV is preferred
PI is preferred to NPV under capital rationing7
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INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN Rate of discount (k) that equates the present value of a
project’s net cash flows with the present value of the net investment
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( )=
=+
∑n
tt
t 1
Net Cash FlowNet Inves
ktment
1
Solve for this variable
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IRR CHARACTERISTICS If IRR > k, then the project is acceptable
Considers the time value of money
Unusual cash flow pattern can result in multiple IRRs
If NPV and IRR disagree, NPV is preferred.
If NPV > 0, IRR > k; if NPV < 0, IRR < k
Assumes cash flows are reinvested at IRR.
Does not consider the value of real options
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PAYBACK PERIOD Number of years for the cumulative net cash flows from a
project to equal the initial cash outlay
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=InYears
Net InvestmentPay Back
Annual Net Cash Flow
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PAYBACK PERIOD CHARACTERISTICS Simple to use and easy to understand
Provides a measure of project liquidity
Provides a measure of project risk
Not a true measure of profitability
Ignores cash flows after the payback period
Ignores the time value of money
May lead to decisions that do not maximize shareholder wealth 11
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CAPITAL BUDGETING UNDER CAPITAL RATIONING
Calculate the profitability index for projects
Order the projects from the highest to the lowest profitability index
Accept the projects with the highest profitability index until the entire capital budget is spent
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NEXT ACCEPTABLE PROJECT IS TOO LARGE
Search for another combination of projects that increases the NPV
Attempt to relax the funds constraint
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WHEN EXCESS FUNDS EXIST
Invest in short-term securities
Reduce outstanding debt
Pay a dividend
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POST-AUDITING IMPLEMENTED PROJECTS
Find systematic biases or errors relating to projected cash flows
Decide whether to abandon or continue projects that have done poorly
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INFLATION AND THE CAPITAL BUDGET Make sure the cost of capital takes account of inflationary
expectations
Make sure that future cash flow estimates include expected price and cost increases
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REAL OPTIONS IN CAPITAL PROJECTS
Investment timing option
Abandonment option
Shutdown options
Growth options
Design-in options
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APPLYING REAL OPTIONS CONCEPTS
Foundation level of use of real options concept Increase awareness of value Options can be created or destroyed Think about risk and uncertainty Value of acquiring additional information
Real options as an analytical tool Option pricing models
Value the option characteristics of projects Analyze various project opportunities
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INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BUDGETING Find the present value of the foreign cash flows denominated
in the foreign currency and discounted at the foreign country’s cost of capital.
Convert the present value of the cash flows to the home country’s currency using the current spot exchange rate.
Subtract the parent company’s net investment from the present value of the net cash flows to obtain the NPV.
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AMOUNT AND TIMING OF FOREIGN CFS
Differential tax rates in different countries
Legal and political constraints on repatriating cash flows
Government-subsidized loans may affect the WACC or discount rate
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SMALL FIRMS Principles are the same as for large firms
DiscrepanciesLack experience to implement proceduresExpertise stretched too thinCash shortages often require emphasis on payback period
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MAJOR POINTS
Four types of capital budgeting decision criteria: NPV Profitability Index IRR Payback Period
NPV is the preferred decision criteria when capital is not constrained
Remember to think about real options
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