charles wayne consulting, inc. the state of orlando’s 2011 & beyond rental apartment market...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC. The State of Orlando’s 2011 & BEYOND Rental Apartment Market PRESENTED BY: DARYL SPRADLEY](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062217/56649e2b5503460f94b1a073/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CHARLES WAYNE
CONSULTING, INC.
The State of Orlando’sThe State of Orlando’s
2011 & BEYOND
Rental Apartment MarketRental Apartment Market
PRESENTED BY:DARYL SPRADLEY
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RECOVERY RECESSION
OVER SUPPLYEXPANSION
DEVELOPMENT CYCLES
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POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH
20,60019,20025,800
39,200
53,200
68,900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTH
25,40023,000 23,600
31,600
41,000
SOURCE: UCF, Institute of Economic Competitiveness
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTHOVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAROVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAR
2008 2009 2010 2011
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SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS 17,900
13,400
4,600
2,6501,700
900
11,400
6,800
2,950 3,250 3,150
1,348
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2
MF SF
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SF & MF CLOSING PRICES SF & MF CLOSING PRICES
$374,000$372,900
$321,400
$247,700 $232,900$231,100
$228,000$247,300 $248,000
$169,300 $161,800$155,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2
SF MF
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2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Apts SF MF
ANNUAL DEMANDANNUAL DEMANDAPARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015APARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015
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APARTMENT MARKET DRIVERSAPARTMENT MARKET DRIVERS
Historically low levels of new apartment construction
High move-ins due to foreclosuresEvidence of “unbundling”Weak consumer confidenceRenters by choice
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% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE
SF
28%
1+ Attached
5%2-4 Units13%
5+ Units
50%
Mobile Homes4%
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590 596 592
563 567
604623 623 629
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
APARTMENT COMPLEXES
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150,100151,000147,200
134,500137,000
144,700149,700151,200152300
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
RENTABLE UNITS
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APARTMENT UNITSAPARTMENT UNITSUNDER CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,000
8,200
5,6005,8004,700
3,9003,800
5,600
3,7003,200
1,5001,900
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
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APARTMENT OCCUPANCYAPARTMENT OCCUPANCY
91.6%
94.8%96.1%
94.1%
90.8%89.6%
88.2%
91.1%
93.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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SUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICSSUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICS
5,286
2,356
5,684
4,029
3,699
3,169
1,526
1,929
08/Q3 09/Q3 10/Q3 11/Q3
Annual Absorption Units Under Construction
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VACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENTVACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENT
3/903/91
3/923/93
3/943/95
3/963/97
3/983/99
3/003/01
3/023/03
3/043/05
3/063/07
3/083/09
3/103/11
0
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
Unemploym ent Apt Vacancy
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APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
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LAKE MARY ~ HEATHROW
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TOD STATIONS ZONES
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EAST ORLANDO ~ UCF
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SW ORANGE ~ HORIZON WEST
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OSCEOLA COUNTY
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LAKE NONA ~ MEDICAL CITY
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TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS
SuburbanSuburbanStyleStyle
ProjectsProjects
$1.05 - $1.20
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TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS
UrbanUrbanLifestyleLifestyleProjectsProjects
$1.20 - $2.00+
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URBAN RENTERSURBAN RENTERS
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TRENDSTRENDS
Land Supply ? Land Values? Rent Growth? Rent Incentives? Trendy Units? Hot Amenities? Urban Town Centers? TOD Developments?
?