chart 1 employee income - bank of japan · q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 total cash...

8
Charts S h t M ti ith B i L d i Oit Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Oita Chart 1: Employee Income Chart 2: Consumer Prices Chart 3: Real GDP Chart 4: "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" (April 2014) Chart 4: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) Chart 5: Consumer Prices by Item Chart 6: Global Economic Outlook Chart 7: U.S. Economy Chart 8: Euro Area Economy Chart 9: Chinese Economy Chart 10: Inflation Rates in Major Economies Chart 11: Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations in Major Economies Ch 12 L b P d ii Chart 12: Labor Productivity Chart 13: Various Consumer Price Indices Chart 14: Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Rates Chart 15: Economic Activity in Oita Prefecture Note: Charts are based on data released on or prior to June 3, 2014 (noon Japan Standard Time). Employee Income Chart 1 / % h Employee Income (1) Number of Employees (2) Nominal Wages* (3) Employee Income 3 y/y % chg. 1 2 y/y % chg. y/y % chg. 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr. -0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2 -1 0 Scheduled cash earnings -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non- earnings (W) 0 -3 -2 Scheduled cash i Non scheduled cash earnings -1.9 0.6 3.0 5.5 5.0 5.1 Sp ecial cash earnings 9.6 2.4 0.3 1.9 0.8 20.5 -1 Part-time employees Full-time employees -4 3 earni ngs Non-scheduled cash earnings Special cash earnings (bonuses, etc.) earnings 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 Number of regular employees (L) -2 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Number of regular employees CY -6 -5 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Total cash earnings CY -0.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.2 Employee income (W × L) 2 Note: Q1 = March-May, Q2 = June-August, Q3 = September-November, Q4 = December-February. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Upload: others

Post on 13-Jul-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

ChartsS h t M ti ith B i L d i OitSpeech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Oita

Chart 1: Employee Income

Chart 2: Consumer Prices

Chart 3: Real GDP

Chart 4: "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" (April 2014)Chart 4: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)

Chart 5: Consumer Prices by Item

Chart 6: Global Economic Outlook

Chart 7: U.S. Economy

Chart 8: Euro Area Economy

Chart 9: Chinese Economyy

Chart 10: Inflation Rates in Major Economies

Chart 11: Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations in Major Economies

Ch 12 L b P d i iChart 12: Labor Productivity

Chart 13: Various Consumer Price Indices

Chart 14: Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Ratesg g

Chart 15: Economic Activity in Oita PrefectureNote: Charts are based on data released on or prior to June 3, 2014 (noon Japan Standard Time).

Employee IncomeChart 1

/ % h

Employee Income

(1) Number of Employees (2) Nominal Wages* (3) Employee Income/ % h

3y/y % chg.

1

2y/y % chg. y/y % chg.

2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.

-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9Total cashearnings (W)

1

2

-1

0Scheduledcashearnings

-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2

Non-

earnings (W)

0-3

-2

Scheduled cash i

Nonscheduledcashearnings

-1.9 0.6 3.0 5.5 5.0 5.1

Special cashearnings 9.6 2.4 0.3 1.9 0.8 20.5

-1Part-time employees

Full-time employees

-4

3 earnings

Non-scheduled cash earnings

Special cash earnings (bonuses, etc.)

earnings

0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3

Number ofregularemployees (L)

-2

0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4

Number of regular employees

CY-6

-5

0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 14

( , )

Total cash earnings

CY

-0.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.2Employeeincome(W × L)

2

Note: Q1 = March-May, Q2 = June-August, Q3 = September-November, Q4 = December-February.Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Page 2: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Consumer PricesChart 2

Consumer Prices

(2) Ku-Area of Tokyo(1) Japan

2.0

All items less fresh food

y/y % chg.2.0

All items less fresh food

y/y % chg.

1.0

1.5

All items less food and energy

1.0

1.5

All items less food and energy

0 5

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1 5

-1.0

-0.5

1 5

-1.0

-0.5

-2.0

-1.5

11 12 13 14CY-2.0

-1.5

11 12 13 14CY

Note: Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

3

Real GDP

Chart 3

Real GDP

Developments in Real GDPs.a., ann., q/q % chg.

2014Jan.-Mar.

1st est.

R l GDP G th R t 4 9 3 5 1 3 0 3 5 9

2013

Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June July-Sep. Oct.-Dec.

Real GDP Growth Rate 4.9 3.5 1.3 0.3 5.9

Domestic Demand (3.2) (2.9) (3.3) (2.6) (6.9)

Private Demand (1.7) (1.2) (1.8) (2.0) (7.3)

Private Consumption (2.6) (1.8) (0.5) (0.9) (5.1)

Private Non-Resi. Investment (- 1.1) (0.5) (0.4) (0.8) (2.7)

Private Residential Investment (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4)

s to

Ch

ange

s

Change in Private Inventories (0.1) (- 1.2) (0.5) (- 0.2) (- 0.8)

Public Demand (1.4) (1.8) (1.5) (0.5) (- 0.4)

Public Investment (0.8) (1.2) (1.3) (0.2) (- 0.5)

Con

trib

uti

ons

External Demand (1.7) (0.5) (- 2.0) (- 2.2) (- 1.1)

 Exports (2.4) (1.7) (- 0.4) (0.3) (3.9)

 Imports (- 0.7) (- 1.2) (- 1.6) (- 2.5) (- 5.0)

Source: Cabinet Office.

4

Page 3: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

"Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" Chart 4

(April 2014)Forecasts of the Majority of Policy Board Members

y/y % chg.

Excluding the effects of theconsumption tax hikes

Real GDPCPI (all items less

fresh food)

+2.2 to +2.3

[+2.2]

+2.5 to +2.9 +0.7 to +0.9

[+2 7] [+0 7]

+0.8

Forecasts made in

January 2014

Fiscal 2013

[+2.7] [+0.7]

+0.8 to +1.3 +3.0 to +3.5 +1.0 to +1.5

[+1.1] [+3.3] [+1.3]

+0.9 to +1.5 +2.9 to +3.6 +0.9 to +1.6Forecasts made in

January 2014

Fiscal 2014

0.9 to 1.5 2.9 to 3.6 0.9 to 1.6

[+1.4] [+3.3] [+1.3]

+1.2 to +1.5 +1.9 to +2.8 +1.2 to +2.1

[+1.5] [+2.6] [+1.9]

Forecasts made in January 2014

Fiscal 2015

+1.2 to +1.8 +1.7 to +2.9 +1.0 to +2.2

[+1.5] [+2.6] [+1.9]

+1.0 to +1.5 +2.0 to +3.0 +1.3 to +2.3Fiscal 2016

Forecasts made in January 2014

[+1.3] [+2.8] [+2.1]Fiscal 2016

Note: Figures in brackets indicate the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts (point estimates).Source: Bank of Japan. 5

Consumer Prices by ItemChart 5

Consumer Prices by Item

(1) Energy (2) Digital Appliances (3) Meals Outside the Home

0 8

1.0

Meals outside the home

y/y % chg.

5.0

10.0

Digital appliances

y/y % chg.

9.0

10.0

Energy

y/y % chg.

0.6

0.8

-5.0

0.0

6 0

7.0

8.0

0.4

-15.0

-10.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

0.2

30 0

-25.0

-20.0

2.0

3.0

-0.2

12 13 14CY

-35.0

-30.0

12 13 14CY

0.0

1.0

12 13 14CY

Notes: 1. Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.2. Prices of digital appliances refer to those of the following CPI items: TV sets, mobile audio players, electronic dictionaries, video

recorders, personal computers (desktop type), personal computers (note type), PC printers, digital cameras, and video cameras.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 6

Page 4: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Global Economic Outlook

Chart 6

Global Economic Outlook

IMF Projections (as of April 2014)

2014 2015projection projection

3.6 3.9( 0 1) ( 0 1)

CY

World 3.2 3.0

real GDP growh rate, y/y % chg.

2012 2013

(-0.1) (-0.1)2.2 2.3

(0.0) (0.0)2.8 3.0

(0.0) (0.0)1 2 1 5

Advanced economies 1.4 1.3

United States 2.8 1.9

1.2 1.5(0.1) (0.1)1.4 1.0

(-0.3) (0.0)4.9 5.3Emerging market and developing

5 0 4 7

Euro area -0.7 -0.5

Japan 1.4 1.5

(-0.2) (-0.1)6.7 6.8

(0.0) (0.0)7.5 7.3

(0.0) (0.0)China 7.7 7.7

economies 5.0 4.7

Developing Asia 6.7 6.5

( ) ( )4.9 5.4

(-0.2) (-0.2)2.5 3.0

(-0.4) (-0.3)Latin America and the Caribbean 3.1 2.7

ASEAN 6.2 5.2

Notes: 1. Figures are calculated using GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) shares of the world total from the International Monetary Fund.

2. Figures in parentheses are the difference from the January 2014 World Economic Outlook .Source: International Monetary Fund.

7

U S Economy

Chart 7

U.S. Economy

(2) Households' Balance Sheet(1) Fiscal Balance*

83tril. U.S. dollar

40001600

CBO Projections

U.S. bil. dollar U.S. bil. dollar15

increase and decrease from the peak (2007/Q3), tril. U.S. dollar

68

73

78 Net assets of U.S. households

3000

3500

800

1200

CBO Projections

0

5

10

58

63

68

2500

3000

0

400

-10

-5

0

43

48

53

1500

2000

1200

-800

-400

Fiscal balance

Expenditure (right scale) 25

-20

-15

Other assets and liabilities (right scale)Stocks including pension funds (right scale)Real estate (right scale)

38

43

02 04 06 08 10 12CY

1000-1600

-1200

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

p ( g )

Revenue (right scale)

FY

-30

-25

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Real estate (right scale)Net assets (right scale)

Note: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projections are as of April 2014. Accounting year basis (from October of previous year to September of current year).

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Haver Analytics. 8

Page 5: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Euro Area Economy

Chart 8

Euro Area Economy(1) Business Confidence (2) Consumer Confidence

115

120

65

70 DI, % points CY 2005=100

10

15

10

15 DI, % points

105

110

115

55

60

65

10

-5

0

5

10

-5

0

5

95

100

45

50

-25

-20

-15

-10

-25

-20

-15

-10

85

90

35

40

Manufacturing PMI

Services PMI-40

-35

-30

-40

-35

-30 Euro area

Germany

France

80 30

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Services PMI

IFO business climate index (right scale)

CY-50

-45

-50

-45

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

France

Spain

CY

Sources: Markit (© and database right Markit Economics Ltd 2014. All rights reserved.); Thomson Reuters Datastream.

9

Chinese Economy

Chart 9

Chinese Economy

(2) GDP and Employment*(1) Long-Term Economic Outlook ("China

1.15job openings-to-applicants ratio, times

2030")

4.013

O tlook

ann., y/y chg. ann., y/y chg.

1.05

1.10

2014/Q12.5

3.0

3.5

10

11

12 OutlookGDP: China 2030Population: United Nations

0.95

1.00

2014/Q1

1.5

2.0

8

9

0 85

0.90

2005/Q1-2009/Q40.5

1.0

6

7

Real GDP growth rate (left scale)

0.80

0.85

5 7 9 11 13 15

2010/Q1-2014/Q1

realGDP growth rate y/y % chg

-0.5

0.0

4

5

1981-85 91-95 2001-05 11-15 21-25

Working age population (right scale)

CY

real GDP growth rate, y/y % chg.

10

Note: Solid line is the regression line of 2005/Q1-2009/Q4 data.Sources: The World Bank; Development Research Center of the State Council, People's Republic of China; United Nations; CEIC Data.

Page 6: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Inflation Rates in Major Economies

Chart 10

Inflation Rates in Major Economies

CPI Inflation Rates in Japan, the United States, and the Euro Area

2 5

3.0

3.5 Japan

United States

Euro area

y/y % chg.

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

-2.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY

Notes: 1. Figures for the United States include all items excluding food and energy. Figures for the euro area includeall items excluding energy and unprocessed food Figures for Japan include all items less food and energyall items excluding energy and unprocessed food. Figures for Japan include all items less food and energy

(alcoholic beverages are excluded from food).2. Figures for Japan for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the

consumption tax hike. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Eurostat; Bloomberg. 11

Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations in Chart 11

Major EconomiesCPI Projections for 6-10 Years Ahead <Consensus Forecasts>

4.5

5.0

Japan

United States

y/y % chg.

3 0

3.5

4.0 Euro area

2.0

2.5

3.0

1.0

1.5

0.0

0.5

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14CY

Note: Survey is conducted every April and October.Source: Consensus Economics Inc.

12

Page 7: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Labor ProductivityChart 12

Labor Productivity

Labor Productivity of Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing

8.5

9.0mil. yen

7.5

8.0

6.5

7.0

All industries

5 5

6.0

All industries

Manufacuturing

Nonmanufacturing

5.0

5.5

90 95 00 05 10 12FY

Notes: 1. Labor productivity = (value added / number of employees ) × 1002. All industries and nonmanufacturing exclude Finance and Insurance.

Source: Ministry of Finance.13

Various Consumer Price IndicesChart 13

y/y % chg.

Various Consumer Price IndicesVarious CPI Inflation Rates in Japan

2.0

2.5

3.0 All items

All items less fresh food

All items less food and energy

All items less imputed rent

0.5

1.0

1.5 Laspeyres chain index, all items less fresh food

10 percent trimmed mean, all items

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-3.0

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14CYNotes: 1. Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.

2. Figures for the 10 percent trimmed mean are weighted averages of items; these items are obtained by rearrangingyear-on-year rates of price change in ascending order and then excluding items in both the upper and lower

10 il b i h10 percent tails by weight.3. Figures for the Laspeyres chain index for 2006 are the year-on-year rates for the fixed-base method.

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

14

Page 8: Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash earnings (W) 1 2-1 0 Scheduled cash earnings-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Non-earnings

Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Rates

Chart 14

Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Rates

JGB purchasesJGB purchases by the Bank

(Downward factors)

(Nominal)E pected short term +

( )long-term

interest rates

= Expected short-terminterest rates

Premiums+

(Upward factors)Improvement in the outlook for economic activity and prices

1. A rise in U.S. interest rates

2. An increase in interest rate volatilityy

15

Economic Activity in Oita PrefectureChart 15

Economic Activity in Oita Prefecture(1) Industrial Production (2) Active Job Openings-to-

Applicants Ratio(3) Business Fixed Investment

(Tankan)*

115

120

Oita Prefecture

Japan

CY 2010=100

1.08

1.00

1.10

Oita Prefecture

Japan

s.a.; times

265

240

260

280FY 2005=100

All industries

Manufacturing

105

110

JapanMETIprojection

0.88

0.80

0.90

Japan

164

177

200

180

200

220Nonmanufacturing

95

100

0 60

0.70

164

120

140

160

85

90

0.50

0.60

6876

66

76

60

80

100

120

75

80

08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY

0.30

0.40

08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY

4855

4245

20

40

60

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14FY

16

Note: Figures from fiscal 2009 onward are based on the new lease accounting standard (figures up to fiscal 2008 are based on the previous standard). Sources: Statistics and Research Division, Oita Prefectural Government; Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI); Ministry of Health, Labour

and Welfare; Oita Labour Bureau; Bank of Japan.