charts of the week for feb 13th 2012

Welcome to another installment of Weekly Charts: Stocks,

Bonds, Commodities & Forex by

2012

The video version of this report is available at

Let's see what we have ON TAP for this week

Tues: Retail sales

Weds: Industrial Production, FOMC minutes

Thurs: PPI

Fri: CPI

Those inflation should be something to pay attention to.

inflation, we could see the bonds (

would have to be quite a surprise (CPI figures under 2.5%) for Treasuries to rally and weak

industrial production figures in order to cause a volatile reaction in the stock market.

Otherwise, we still see smooth sailing ahead with Dow 13,000 on the

Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond ETF support level in view Feb 13 2012

There have been some signs that inflationary pressures could perk up. As we mentioned last

week, federal government unemployment stats fell to 8.3%, with evidence of

downtrend. Also, construction spending figures turned positive for the first time in over 4

years. That's somewhat reassuring.

U.S. Contsruction Spending are finally picking up some steam_021312

With an inflation rate up around 3% and Five and Ten Year Treasuries yielding less than 2%,

something will have to give eventually.

central bank buying as a form of monetary stimulus.


Bonds, Commodities & Forex by ProActInvest.net for Feb 13,

The video version of this report is available at http://bit.ly/wVZsJA

ON TAP for this week:

, FOMC minutes

Those inflation should be something to pay attention to. If there are any surprises in terms of

inflation, we could see the bonds (TLT) break key long-term support at the 115.00 level.



Otherwise, we still see smooth sailing ahead with Dow 13,000 on the horizon.

term U.S. Treasury Bond ETF support level in view Feb 13 2012


week, federal government unemployment stats fell to 8.3%, with evidence of a noticeable

Also, construction spending figures turned positive for the first time in over 4

years. That's somewhat reassuring.

U.S. Contsruction Spending are finally picking up some steam_021312


eventually. The only thing it seems that is holding up Treasuries is

central bank buying as a form of monetary stimulus.


for Feb 13,

http://bit.ly/wVZsJA

If there are any surprises in terms of

term support at the 115.00 level. There




a noticeable

Also, construction spending figures turned positive for the first time in over 4


The only thing it seems that is holding up Treasuries is

http://www.proactinvest.net


Indeed, central banks all over the world are adding liquidity

on its feet and running. Just today t

financing to European commercial and investment banks at a rate of just 1%

giving European banks carte blanche to lend at upwards of 4%

(estimated to total $158 billion), giving them the highest incentive to lend money to businesses

throughout Europe. This comes in the face of the Greek government agreeing to abide by

stringent fiscal austerity measures as outlined by the ECB.

With Europe and the U.S. on a fiscal diet

even BRIC central banks in China, Brazil and India) that are picking up the slack by pumping

money into the global economy by keeping the cost of capital low.

inflationary pressures - which will be more apparent on the long end of the yield curve than at

the short end.

In addition, as we can see from the latest government report,

improving.

The U.S. Trade Deficit is not improving_021312

This is not a self-correcting phenomenon as it normally is.

either by depreciating the currency or increasing the savings rate. Since the Fed is making sure

that interest rates will stay super low at least until 2014, there is really no incentiv

indeed quite the opposite. So the dollar would have to weaken

bank allows it to. The only other natural development that will help correct this imbalance

would be for Treasury rates at the long end of the cu

long-term Treasuries are a short. Something has to give

suspect that it will long-term U.S. government interest rates that will have to break higher

eventually.

With the reassuring news coming out of Europe, we believe that the USD/Euro has stabilized

above the 126.00 support level.

Forex USDEuro exchange rate likely to test 133 resistance_02132012

Turning to the U.S. stock market, ProActInvest.net's intermediate and short

still long (as they have been since December 20, 2011).

Dow 13,000 is still within striking distance (about 1.5% away).

with AAPL leading the way and finally reaching the $500/share level!

central banks all over the world are adding liquidity to get the world economy back up

Just today there was news that the ECB will provide subsidized

financing to European commercial and investment banks at a rate of just 1% -

giving European banks carte blanche to lend at upwards of 4% -a gift of 3% in carry trade profits

l $158 billion), giving them the highest incentive to lend money to businesses

This comes in the face of the Greek government agreeing to abide by

stringent fiscal austerity measures as outlined by the ECB.

fiscal diet, it is the central banks (namely the ECB, the Fed, and


money into the global economy by keeping the cost of capital low. This eventually will lead t

which will be more apparent on the long end of the yield curve than at

In addition, as we can see from the latest government report, the trade deficit in the U.S. is not

The U.S. Trade Deficit is not improving_021312

g phenomenon as it normally is. Usually, trade deficits are corrected


that interest rates will stay super low at least until 2014, there is really no incentiv

So the dollar would have to weaken - that is, only if China's central

The only other natural development that will help correct this imbalance

would be for Treasury rates at the long end of the curve to steepen, which is why we feel that

term Treasuries are a short. Something has to give - either the dollar or interest rates.

term U.S. government interest rates that will have to break higher


A test of the 133.00 resistance level is imminent.

Forex USDEuro exchange rate likely to test 133 resistance_02132012

Turning to the U.S. stock market, ProActInvest.net's intermediate and short-term models are

still long (as they have been since December 20, 2011). As we mentioned over the past weeks,

Dow 13,000 is still within striking distance (about 1.5% away). We still like technology (QQQ)

with AAPL leading the way and finally reaching the $500/share level!

to get the world economy back up

the ECB will provide subsidized

- essentially

a gift of 3% in carry trade profits

l $158 billion), giving them the highest incentive to lend money to businesses

This comes in the face of the Greek government agreeing to abide by

it is the central banks (namely the ECB, the Fed, and


This eventually will lead to

which will be more apparent on the long end of the yield curve than at

the trade deficit in the U.S. is not

Usually, trade deficits are corrected


that interest rates will stay super low at least until 2014, there is really no incentive to save -

that is, only if China's central

The only other natural development that will help correct this imbalance

rve to steepen, which is why we feel that

either the dollar or interest rates. I

term U.S. government interest rates that will have to break higher


A test of the 133.00 resistance level is imminent.

term models are

we mentioned over the past weeks,

We still like technology (QQQ)

With a measurable rebound in construction spending and rea

the BRIC nations are in an accomodative monetary policy mode, we like residential home

building companies from China and Brazil.

reasonable price are Gafisa (GFA) from

(XIN). We like also like the long-

Gafisa SA ADR GFA_long-

XIN Xinyuan Real Estate_ADR_forming an attractive base formation_ 021312

Thats it for ProActInvest.net's Charts of the Week for February 13, 2012.

YouTube video version of this report by searching for the ProActInvest.net channel in the

YouTube search box. Please "like" the video and leave a comment.

any special requests that you may have.

FYI, I am in the process of completing a video tutorial entitled Should I have Convertible Bonds

in my portfolio?" When it's completed, I'll send out a link via e

want to get access to the link, make sure to sign up in the opt

the ProActInvest.net web site (preferred method), or leave a comment under this

Oh, and please spread the word about ProActInvest.net to your friends.

The video version of this report is available at

Thanks for your interest and have a great week!

Sincerely,

Rich Wiegand

founder, ProActInvest.net

With a measurable rebound in construction spending and real estate, as well as the fact that


building companies from China and Brazil. The ones that are attractive in terms of growth at a

reasonable price are Gafisa (GFA) from Brazil and Xinyuan Real Estate Company from China

-term chart formations for these names.

-term double bottom basing formation 021312

Xinyuan Real Estate_ADR_forming an attractive base formation_ 021312

Thats it for ProActInvest.net's Charts of the Week for February 13, 2012. Please check out the


Please "like" the video and leave a comment. I'll also try to respond to

any special requests that you may have.


it's completed, I'll send out a link via e-mail to all subscribers.

want to get access to the link, make sure to sign up in the opt-in box in the upper right corner of

the ProActInvest.net web site (preferred method), or leave a comment under this

Oh, and please spread the word about ProActInvest.net to your friends.

The video version of this report is available at http://bit.ly/wVZsJA

Thanks for your interest and have a great week!

l estate, as well as the fact that


The ones that are attractive in terms of growth at a

Brazil and Xinyuan Real Estate Company from China

Xinyuan Real Estate_ADR_forming an attractive base formation_ 021312

Please check out the


I'll also try to respond to


mail to all subscribers. If you

in box in the upper right corner of

the ProActInvest.net web site (preferred method), or leave a comment under this blog post.



charts of the week for feb 13th 2012

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