Charts Prepared forNick Boehm

MIG Absolute ReturnYardeni Research, Inc.

January 26, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

Charts Prepared for Nick BoehmMIG Absolute Return

1. untitled2. S&P 500 Index vs S&P/Case Shiller Index3. S&P 500 Index vs S&P/Case Shiller Index4. S&P 500 Index vs Personal Savings Rate5. S&P 500 Index vs Personal Saving Rate6. S&P 500 Index vs Initial Jobless Claims7. S&P 500 Index vs Initial Jobless Claims8. S&P 500 Index vs American Staffing Index9. S&P 500 Index vs American Staffing Index

10. S&P 500 Index vs Domestic Auto Sales11. S&P 500 Index vs US Domestic Auto Sales12. S&P 500 Index vs Building Permits13. S&P 500 Index vs Building Permits

continued...

14. S&P 500 Index vs 3-month Forward Copper Price15. S&P 500 Index vs 3-month Forward Copper Price16. S&P 500 Index vs Baltic Dry Index17. S&P 500 Index vs Baltic Dry Index18. S&P 500 Index vs AAII Sentiment Bullish Reading19. S&P 500 Index vs AAII Sentiment Bullish Reading20. S&P 500 Index vs US Freight Carloads21. S&P 500 Index vs US Freight Carloads22. S&P 500 Index vs Citigroup Economic Surprise Index23. S&P 500 Index vs Citigroup Economic Surprise Index24. S&P 500 Index vs ISM Manufacturing PMI25. S&P 500 Index vs ISM Manufacturing PMI

© Copyright Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and itsaccuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Additional Information Available on Request.

Doc: CLIENTMIG Assembled Friday, 01/26/2018 07:37 PM

S&

P 500 In

du

stry

RE

PL

AC

EM

EN

T T

able 1: S

&P

500 Ind

ustry P

erform

ance (so

rted b

y 1-day %

chan

ge as o

f Octo

ber 25, 2013)

S&

P 500 In

du

stry1-D

ay % ch

ang

e10/25/13

S&

P 500 In

du

stry1-D

ay % ch

ang

e10/25/13

Source: S

tandard & P

oor’s Corporation and H

aver Analytics.

Internet Retail

5.2S

ecurity & A

larm S

ervices4.6

Ind Pow

er Producers &

Energy T

raders4.3

System

s Softw

are4.0

Trading C

o & D

istributors2.2

Residential R

EIT

S2.1

Office R

EIT

S2.1

Paper P

ackaging2.1

Agricultural P

roducts1.9

Insurance Brokers

1.8H

ealth Care D

istributors1.8

Electrical C

omponents &

Equipm

ent1.7

Hom

e Furnishings

1.7H

ousewares &

Specialties

1.7A

dvertising1.5

Specialized R

EIT

S1.5

Health C

are Facilities

1.5R

esearch & C

onsulting Srvs

1.4D

iversified RE

ITS

1.3P

aper Products

1.3Industrial M

achinery1.3

Industrial RE

ITS

1.3O

il & G

as Drilling

1.2S

pecialty Chem

icals1.2

Oil &

Gas E

xploration & P

roduction1.2

Multi-U

tilities1.1

Utilities

1.1Integrated T

elecom S

ervices1.1

Metal &

Glass C

ontainers1.1

Environm

ent & F

acilities Services

1.1Leisure P

roducts1.1

Office E

lectronics1.1

Food R

etail1.0

Brew

ers1.0

Telecom

munication S

ervices1.0

Electric U

tilities1.0

Com

munications E

quipment

0.9D

iversified Support S

ervices0.9

Oil &

Gas E

quipment &

Services

0.9C

omputer S

torage & P

eripherals0.9

Industrial Gases

0.9S

emiconductors

0.8S

oft Drinks

0.8Life S

ciences Tools &

Services

0.8C

onsumer F

inance0.8

Real E

state Services

0.8S

teel0.8

Aerospace &

Defense

0.8Investm

ent Banking &

Brokerage

0.7C

onsumer D

iscretionary0.7

Oil &

Gas S

torage & T

ransportation0.7

Gold

0.7A

ir Freight &

Logistics0.6

Sem

iconductor Equipm

ent0.6

Restaurants

0.6G

as Utilities

0.5P

ackaged Foods &

Meats

0.5F

ertilizers & A

gricultural Chem

icals0.5

Asset M

anagement &

Custody B

anks0.5

Cable &

Satellite

0.5T

obacco0.5

Industrials0.5

Apparel, A

ccessories & Luxury G

oods0.5

Broadcasting

0.5F

ood Distributors

0.5P

ersonal Products

0.5D

istillers & V

intners0.4

S&

P 500 C

omposite

0.4F

inancials0.4

Information T

echnology0.4

Energy

0.4R

egional Banks

0.4O

il & G

as Refining, M

kting & T

ransportation0.4

Other D

iversified Financial S

ervices0.4

Hotels, R

esorts & C

ruise Lines0.3

Autom

otive Retail

0.3D

iversified Banks

0.3D

istributors0.3

Tires &

Rubber

0.3B

iotechnology0.3

Managed H

ealth Care

0.3C

onsumer S

taples0.3

Airlines

0.3F

ootwear

0.3S

pecialty Stores

0.2T

hrifts & M

ortgage Finance

0.2M

aterials0.2

Multi-line Insurance

0.2P

harmaceuticals

0.2Life &

Health Insurance

0.1H

ealth Care

0.1H

uman R

esource & E

mploym

ent Services

0.1A

pparel Retail

0.1M

otorcycle Manufacturers

0.1C

omputer &

Electronics R

etail0.1

Health C

are Equipm

ent0.1

Trucking

0.1D

iversified Metals &

Mining

0.1H

ome E

ntertainment S

oftware

0.0D

ata Processing &

Outsourced S

ervices0.0

Hom

ebuilding0.0

Industrial Conglom

erates0.0

Construction M

aterials0.0

Movies &

Entertainm

ent0.0

Hom

efurnishing Retail

0.0G

eneral Merchandise S

tores-0.1

Retail R

EIT

S-0.1

Consum

er Electronics

-0.1A

luminum

-0.1E

lectronic Manufacturing S

ervices-0.1

Application S

oftware

-0.1B

uilding Products

-0.1A

uto Parts &

Equipm

ent-0.2

Publishing

-0.2D

epartment S

tores-0.2

Household P

roducts-0.2

Hyperm

arkets & S

uper Centers

-0.3Integrated O

il & G

as-0.3

Coal &

Consum

able Fuels

-0.3C

onstruction, Farm

Machinery &

Heavy T

rucks-0.3

Hom

e Improvem

ent Retail

-0.4IT

Consulting &

Services

-0.4E

lectronic Equipm

ent Manufacturers

-0.4C

onstruction & E

ngineering-0.5

Specialized F

inance-0.6

Railroads

-0.6W

ireless Telecom

Services

-0.6A

utomobile M

anufacturers-0.6

Property &

Casualty Insurance

-0.7D

rug Retail

-0.7H

ousehold Appliances

-0.7D

iversified Chem

icals-0.8

Specialized C

onsumer S

ervices-0.8

Com

puter Hardw

are-0.9

Internet Softw

are & S

ervices-1.1

Office S

ervices & S

upplies-1.4

Casinos &

Gam

bling-1.5

Health C

are Technology

-2.8H

ealth Care S

ervices-2.9

Fig

ure 1.

Strategist’s Handbook

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018132

142

152

162

172

182

192

202

212

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900 1/26

Oct

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.S&P/CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX

Home Price Index(January 2000=100, nsa)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and S&P, Fiserv, and Macro Markets LLC.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.S&P/CASE SHILLER HOMPRICE INDEX

Home Price Index(January 2000=100, nsa)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and S&P, Fiserv, and Macro Markets LLC.

2011 2012 2013 2014 201512.0

11.2

10.4

9.6

8.8

8.0

7.2

6.4

5.6

4.8

4.0

3.2

2.4

105011001150120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750180018501900195020002050210021502200

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.PERSONAL SAVING RATE

Personal Saving Rate(inverted scale, percent)

S&P 500(daily,1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201512

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

12/25

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.PERSONAL SAVING RATE

Personal Saving Rate(inverted scale, percent)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015480470460450440430420410400390380370360350340330320310300290280270260250240

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

12/26

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

Jobless Claims(inverted scale,thousands, sa)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015710

660

610

560

510

460

410

360

310

260

210

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

2250

12/25

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

Jobless Claims(inverted scale,thousands, sa)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2011 2012 2013 2014 201575

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

105011001150120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750180018501900195020002050210021502200

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.AMERICAN STAFFING INDEX

American Staffing Index(Jun-12-06=100, nsa)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and American Staffing Association.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201560

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

12/25

12/26

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.AMERICAN STAFFING INDEX

American Staffing Index(Jun-12-06=100, nsa)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and American Staffing Association.

2011 2012 2013 20148.89.09.29.49.69.810.010.210.410.610.811.011.211.411.611.812.012.212.412.612.813.013.213.413.613.814.014.214.414.6

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.DOMESTIC AUTO SALES

Domestic Auto Sales(million units, saar)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and AutoData Corp.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

9

12

15

18

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

12/25S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.US DOMESTIC AUTO SALES

Domestic Auto Sales(million units, saar)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

Source: Wall Street Journal and AutoData Corp.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015530

630

730

830

930

1030

1130

1230

1330

1430

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.BUILDING PERMITS

Building Permits(thousand units, saar)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Census Bureau.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-50

450

950

1450

1950

2450

650700750800850900950

100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000205021002150

12/25S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.BUILDING PERMITS

Building Permits(thousand units, saar)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Census Bureau.

2011 2012 2013 2014 20154500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.LME 3-MONTH FORWARD OFFICIAL COPPER PRICE

LME Copper Price($, metric ton)

S&P 500(daily,1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

12/25

12/25

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.LME 3-MONTH FORWARD OFFICIAL COPPER PRICE

LME Copper Price($/metric ton)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.BALTIC DRY INDEX

Baltic Dry Index

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-500

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

13500

600700800900

100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700280029003000

1/26

1/19

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.BALTIC DRY INDEX

Baltic Dry Index

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.

2011 2012 2013 2014 201515

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

12/30

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.AAII SENTIMENT BULLISH READING

Bullish Sentiment(percent)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

12/25

12/30

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.AAII SENTIMENT BULISH READING

Bullish Sentiment(percent)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

12/26

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.US FREIGHT CARLOADS

Carloads(thousand units)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Atlantic Systems.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015150

200

250

300

350

400

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

12/25

12/26

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.US FREIGHT CARLOADS

Carloads(thousand units)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Atlantic Systems.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

CitigroupEconomicsSurprise Index(percent)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-150

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

Citigroup EconomicsSurprise Index(percent)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

2011 2012 2013 2014 201546

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

105011001150120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750180018501900195020002050210021502200

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

Manufacturing PMI(50+=increasing, sa)

S&P 500(daily, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Institute for Supply Management.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201530

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

12/25

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX vs.ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

Manufacturing PMI(50+=increasing, sa)

S&P 500(weekly, 1941-43=10)

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Institute for Supply Management.

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