chatham 2014
TRANSCRIPT
sueadlerteam
REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW
Presented by
Dear Neighbor,It is a pleasure to share with you our first annual review of the Mid-Town Direct Train Line residential real estate market. In this report, which is based on extensiveresearch on behalf of our current and prospective clients, you’ll have an opportunityto examine 2014 market trends and relevant sales statistics, broken down by pricebracket and town. We hope you find this information useful. Please feel free to sharewith your friends and family.
It should not come as a surprise to anyone reading the headlines that the averagehome price is on the rise in our local towns. In 2014, the average sale price increasedby 2% in our Mid-Town Direct Train Line Towns (Chatham, Madison, Maplewood,Millburn/Short Hills, South Orange, Summit) to $860,507. Prices are still down by anaverage of about 5% from their peak in 2007, but in some towns and in some pricesegments the prices are higher than the 2007 peak. Homes are selling faster againwith the average days on market at their lowest levels since 2005. The backlog ofunsold homes has plummeted as well.
The economy remains buoyant from inside New Jersey. By the end of 2014, theunemployment rate was down to around 6.5%. It peaked at 9.7% in December of2009. Adding to the good employment news, rental vacancies in New Jersey weredown to about 7.8% at the end of 2013, compared to 11.2% from just a year prior.
On a personal note, 2014 was a very special year for The Sue Adler Team, it markedone decade as the top Keller Williams team in the New York Tri-state Region and #12 in the entire country (out of approximately 109,000 KW agents). It also markedthe second year in a row we were the #1 agents in the Garden State MLS by dollarvolume sold (for all brands).
Our team is proud to live and serve in our beautiful communities, and we are verygrateful for the opportunity to make a difference in your life.
Yours to count on,The Sue Adler Team
4 | THE SUE ADLER TEAM
Sue Adler’s Data & Market Commentary
0
20
40
60
80
2008
60
2009
74
2010
63
2011
70
2012
65
2013
56
2014
46
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
The Average days that a home spent on the market before sellingfell again in 2014 as buyers were quick to make offers given alack of inventory. The average home sold in 45 days in 2014, 11days faster than in 2013. It was the shortest marketing time in the past 7 years. The average was skewed higher by a subset ofhomes that sold after remaining on the market for 100+ days. Hot homes sold in less than two weeks in many of our Mid-TownDirect train line towns. For more information about your town,please see page 6.
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
2008
97
2009
96
2010
97
2011
96
2012
97
2013
98
2014
99
LIST PRICE TO SALE PRICE
The ratio of the list price to sale price is a shorthand measure ofbuyer demand relative to seller supply. A ratio close to or over100% indicates that buyers are paying close to or over list price,and are seeing value. A ratio well under 100% means that homesare selling well below list price and that buyers are not seeingvalue. In 2014, homes on the Mid-Town Direct train line sold at99% of list price, reaching a six-year high. For more informationabout your town, please see page 6.
Inventory Sales
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2,
622
1,2
76
2,
40
4
1,185
2,
492
1,3
21 2,
287
1,2
04
2,21
0
1,288
2,
313
1,6
52 2,
44
0
1,590
INVENTORY & SALES
SALES BY TOWN
Inventory levels grew slightly in 2014 as the strong market in 2013brought sellers to the market in 2014. 1,590 homes sold, while2,440 homes were listed. Meaning that at any given time there isonly 1.5 months of inventory on the market, indicating a strongseller’s market. The discrepancy between inventory and salesgrew. This is a trend we need to watch in 2015. When buyers havemore choices they are slower to make decisions and pricesbecome diluted. This, coupled with the slightly higher levels ofnew inventory, resulted in the higher turnover ratio.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Maplewood Millburn ChathamBoro
ChathamTownship
South Orange Madison Summit New Providence
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
247
235
251
324
296
235
228
251
322
329
101
97 81 145
98 153
155
138
179
188
161
152
178
221
255
150
131
128
178
164
274
206
261
283
260
113
126
117
165
127
Our Mid-Town Direct Train LineTowns are a sought after place tolive. Residents enjoy ease of accessto New York City, excellent schools,friendly communities, and stunningdowntowns with some of the bestrestaurants in the state.
Mid-Town direct train line towns are:
• Chatham Boro/Township • Maplewood• Madison • South Orange• Summit • Short Hills/Millburn
In 2014, the average sale price in the Mid-Town Direct train line towns increased $14,307 from 2013 or a 2% growth in just one year!
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014700K
750K
800K
850K
$900K
838,321
775,301
813,233
768,112785,274
846,200860,507
SELLING PRICES
MARKET SUMMARY2014 will be remembered as being a great year to be aSeller in the Mid-Town Direct train line towns. Prices onaverage continued to rise and most homes sold at a veryrapid pace.
Sellers: Your home is likely gaining equity. The Sellers whonet the most amount of money with the least amount ofhassle spend time up front preparing their house for themarket. Their homes are strategically priced to get topdollar, and showcased beautifully online with professionalphotography -the perfect recipe for creating the mostinterest, which keeps the seller in the driver’s seat. Thestrongest Realtors will bulletproof the transaction up front,so that your transaction is as stress-free as possible.Consider consulting with a local realtor who specializes inworking with Sellers for advice on your specific home.
Buyers: It was a tough year to be a buyer in the “sweetspot” of this marketplace. We saw fewer homes come to themarket than we expected and “the good homes” alwaysseemed to go with multiple offers leaving many buyersfeeling frustrated. Buyers needed to be in a position andhave the context to move quickly. Those that met with aBuyer Specialist who was able to consult with them on thecurrent market situation for their price point and towns,prepare them with a multiple offer strategy (if necessary),and discuss resale value, often came out on top. Onaverage, only one of four offers written was accepted.
Trends by Price Point: The upper bracket homes have notbounced back and if inventory rises, we will continue to seea Buyers market in this segment, especially for those thathave not been updated; the midrange market is quitebalanced where well priced homes that are ready for saleare selling quite quickly. The entry-level market continued to be a strong Seller’s market where homes were sellingquickly. With mortgage money being so inexpensive, it hasbeen more cost effective for buyers to purchase homes withupdated kitchens and baths, so we should continue to seedemand for this in all price ranges.
FINANCINGAlthough a 20% down-payment is the industry norm, in the Mid-Town train communities we saw 50% of newhomeowners putting down 20% to 30% in 2014.
The low interest rate environment in 2014 resulted in 70% of the financing obtained to be fixed rate mortgages withonly 30% of buyers selecting an adjustable rate mortgage.90% selected conventional financing with 10% opting forgovernment loans. Over 95% of the loans cast were 30 yearmortgages versus shorter terms like 10 or 15 years. This islikely to be due to the favorable fixed rate environment, butmay also suggest that homeowners electing to live in thesecommunities are planning on staying put for the long haul.
Down Payments:Average down payment for market is 23%
HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGEPrice Range Average Days Averagein Dollars on Market Number of Sales Sales to List
1M or less 56 1,175 96.4%
1M-2M 70 323 96.1%
2M or more 119 83 93.4%
Selling prices continued to climb, as they have been for the past four years. Compared to 2011, prices in 2014 are up 12% to$860,507. Prices in the Mid-Town Direct train line towns reacheda record high for the past seven years, but are still down onaverage 5% from the previous high in 2007 of $909,418. Whilethis is the general market trend, we still see that prices in theluxury market have not bounced back to the levels of the rest of the market and some segments in the entry level market arehigher than the previous peak. For more detailed informationabout your town, please see page 6.
5% to 20% down93%
<5% down.07%
20% to <30% down4.93%
30% down 2%
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2014 Home Sale Statistics
THE CHATHAMS 2014 HOUSING REVIEWIn 2014 Chatham homes took on average 48 days to sell compared to the Mid-Town Direct train line town averageof 46. 286 homes sold in Chatham, with an average sale price of $912,819. The list to sale price ratio of 98% is inline with the rest of the train line towns and is quite strong, showing an overall sellers’ market. Due to the higheraverage price point, the slightly longer days on market are not a surprise to us, as the higher the price bracket, the fewer buyers, the slower the market. We expect to see this trend continue in 2015, keeping in mind that homes priced right in great locations, and prepared for sale typically sell rather quickly.
In order to provide the most accurate statistics for the segments below, we have compiled the data for each property soldgoing back to listing date of 1/1/2013. This allows us to identify the actual original list price and true days on market whichdiffers from the market overview because the MLS does not account for relisted properties. The following are our results:
UNDER $500,000TRANSACTIONS: 70 AVERAGE CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET: 72ORIGINAL LIST TO SALE PRICE: 95.2%The under $500,000 market in Chatham represented roughly 25% of all Chathamhomes sold in 2014. Compared to the rest of the Chatham market, this market is slightly slower than normal with a lower list to sales price ratio than any other marketsegment in Chatham. One reason for this is the fact that several of the transactions in this price range were condo and townhouse sales. Glancing at these statistics, one could conclude that this price bracket is more of a buyers market. We wouldsuggest however, that the statistics are skewed due to the high volume of condos andtownhouses in this price range, which take longer to sell than single-family homes in
the same range. The single-family homes in this price range sold fast and often with multiple offers. The statistics for this marketsegment are in line with other neighboring towns, and we plan to see this trend continue in 2015.
$500,000 TO $1,000,000TRANSACTIONS: 131 AVERAGE CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET: 60ORIGINAL LIST TO SALE PRICE: 96.1%The $500,000 to $1,000,000 market represented about 45% of the Chatham market in 2014. With the lowest days on market and second highest list to sale price ratio, it is clear that this is the sweet spot for Chatham real estate. This does not come to a surprise, as most of the Chatham buyers who contacted us to purchase a home in 2014were looking for a home in this price range.
$1,000,000 TO $1,500,000TRANSACTIONS: 64 AVERAGE CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET: 78ORIGINAL LIST TO SALE PRICE: 96.2%The $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 represented 18% of the Chatham market in 2014. Thismarket had the highest list to sale price ratio, indicating a strong Seller's market withlow inventory. The homes that were recently updated or had a nice size property in great location sold faster, and with a higher list to sale price ratio than the homes that needed updates, or had location issues such as main road or power lines.
$1,500,000 & UPTRANSACTIONS: 32 AVERAGE CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET: 113ORIGINAL LIST TO SALE PRICE: 95.5%The $1,500,000 and up market represented 12% of the total Chatham market. Thisupper bracket price range shows similar stats to other neighboring towns. The high-end market in 2014 was very seasonal – school year driven. Most sales closed by August. Overall it was a slow moving price range with an average days on market of 113, and many of the homes were listed more than once before selling and often with a price reduction. On a positive note, if you take the full year into account, theoverall average list to sale price ratio was strong, balancing out the slower months.
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About the Sue Adler Team• Ranked #1 for Dollar Volume Production in GSMLS and all of New Jersey for 2013 and 2014 • #1 producing Keller Williams Team in the Tri-State Region for 10 straight years • REAL Trends top 250 Agents Nationwide (past 3 years)• Listed on Inman’s 100 Most Influential Real Estate Leaders 2012 and 2013• Listed on Inman’s 33 People Changing The Real Estate Industry 2014
We are proud to say that we helped 155 clients in 2014 get to the closing table.
WHO WERE THE BUYERS IN 2014?In the entry to mid range price brackets, the typical buyer moved from NYC, Hoboken, Jersey City or Brooklyn, andwere in there 30’s or early 40’s. There were also quite a few downsizers in this price bracket.
The higher price brackets brought in relocation from New York City/Hoboken/Jersey City, but there were also morerelocation buyers from other parts of the country than in the lower price brackets.
We experienced a small increase in “Move-Up Buyers” compared to previous years. If inventory continues to grow in2015, we expect to see this trend continue, especially the first half of the year before interest rates rise. One of thereasons the “Move Up Buyer” market has been slow in recent years is because if the buyers needed to sell first, thelack of good inventory made them nervous. Buyers in the highest two brackets tend to be school year driven andmost close by Labor Day. The exception to this are the buyers moving within the same town.
There were two SELLER TRENDS we experienced in 2014 that we expect to continue in 2015.
1. Empty nesters are selling and leaving town. Many are leaving NJ. They often take up to fiveyears to make the decision to move. Why? They saythey are overwhelmed with the thought of gettingtheir homes ready, and they aren’t sure where theywant to go. A reputable real estate team ofspecialists has the capability to help homeownersthrough this transition including advising onnecessary repairs, staging, and the entire processfrom pre-market through closing. Our networkincludes contractors, professional organizers whocan donate, sell or haul away “stuff,” and topRealtors in other parts of the country where youmay be considering exploring.
2. Sellers are weighing renovating vs. moving.We have received many more consultation calls thispast year than previous years from homeownerswanting to know if they will recoup their investmentif they renovate/expand. I work with excellentarchitects and am happy to consult with you on thisat no cost, and help you weigh your options.
“You were like moving counselors. Your team’s value is so much more than just selling houses – people need to know that.”
— SANDY KIRSCHENBAUM, Short Hills Sellerand former Millburn teacher
518 Milburn Avenue, Short Hills, NJ 07078
973.936.9129 sueadler.com
Why work with a team of specialists instead of a generalist?If you needed hand surgery, you’d most likely go to a specialist, not ageneralist, right? It is no different in real estate. It is very difficult for a solo agent to do it all today, or at least to do it all well.
When you work with the Sue Adler Team, you are paying the same price for a team of specialists.Sue only works with Sellers and has sold more homes than any of herlocal competitors last year. There are five talented Buyer Specialists on the team who work with our buyer clients, previewing homes, andmaking sure they are well prepared to be competitive in this market.
Unlike other agents who are generalists, Sue is 100% focused only onher listings. Melissa, Sue’s Listing Success Manager, choreographs themarketing and behind the scenes process. Peter is our ProfessionalPhotographer, Vicky writes the copy for our beautiful brochures andScott, our Director of Operations, sees your online marketing strategyto fruition and insures that all inquiries on your home are respondedto immediately and professionally. Dawn has a constructionbackground and is amazing at inspection negotiations and thecontract to close process.
Every team member is exceptional in their role, and I am proud to saythat we helped 155 clients in 2014 get to the closing table.
Read what Sue Adler Team clients say to understand why the TeamApproach is so effective: sueadler.com/testimonials/
Is your home worth more than you think?Visit PriceMyNJHome.com or call 973.936.9129for your complimentary moving consultation.
If your property is currently listed this is not intended as a solicitation.
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