che fall 2014 hydro & solar 2x grey scale

8/9/2019 CHE Fall 2014 Hydro & Solar 2X Grey Scale

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Hydro & Solar

Energy Technology & Policy

Fred C. Beach, Ph.D.

CHE 359/384 & EER 396, Fall 2014

U.S. Energy Use

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Hydroelectric Power

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Hydroelectric Power Is Robust and Efficient

Source: Army Corps of Engineers

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Hydroelectric Power Is a Function of Height

and Volume Power production requires

height differences

large volumes of water

P 10 H Q [kW]

H = head (m) (height of water)

Q = flow rate (m3/s)

Source: Army Corps of Engineers

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Dams Can Be Massive Powerplants

Grand Coulee Dam (6.5 GW, Columbia River)

Hoover Dam(2.1 GW, Colorado River)

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Austins Dam Used To Be The Worlds Largest

The Great Dam Across the Colorado River,At Austin Texas

Scientific American

September 1892

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Austins Dam Used To Be The Worlds Largest

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Dams Can Also Be Very Small

500 sites in WA

alone

14 GW of apps

pending with FERC

Easier siting thanlarge dams

Source: WSJ

Hydroelectric Power Has Many Benefits

Reliable

Very efficient

Quick start-up/turn-off times

Low emissions during generation

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Dams Serve Several Purposes

Flood control

Water storage

Irrigation

Recreation

Navigation

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Hydroelectric Power Has Many Drawbacks

Disturbs ecosystems (fish migration, etc.)

salmon ladders to go upstream

fish-friendly turbines to go downstream

Creates evaporation from lakes

About half of national capacity is already built

Silting might limit lifetimes to ~100 years

maybe not renewable?

Source of GHGs (CO2and CH4from decaying vegetation)

hard to quantify

End-of-life planning not built into project development

how do you decommission a dam?

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Dams Disturb Vast Expanses of Land and

Sometimes Collapse

Johnstown, PA 1869

2,209 people killed

Santa Clarita, CA 1928

600 people killed

Austins has failed twice

formed Red Bud Isle

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Austins Dam Has Collapsed Multiple Times

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The Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of

Reclamation Are Responsible for Most US Dams

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Much of the Hydroelectric Buildout Occurred

in From the 1930s to the 1970s

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Large Dams in the 1930s & 1940s Were Built

For Economic Development and for WWII

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Dams Can Also be Weapons

ISIS Seizes Mosul Dam


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Solar Power

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There Are 3 (or more) Technologies in Solar

Solar Photovoltaic (PV): Direct electricalproduction Radiant to electrical energy conversion (re)

Works with reflected/scattered light

Very sensitive to cloud cover

Solar thermal: Radiant to thermal (rt)

Passive heating of water, homes, greenhouses,

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP): to create steam

Radiant to thermal to mechanical to electrical energy

conversion (rtme)

Requires direct normal radiation (often in arid areas)

Usually has thermal storage built in

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And 3 (or more) Applications in Scale

Utility Scale 100s of KWs to MWs

Can be Simple Tracking or Fixed PV

Can Be Concentrated PV or Solar Thermal

Commercial/Industrial Scale:

10s of KWs to a Few MW

Generally Simple PV, Some Concentrated Solar

Residential Scale:

A few KW to ~10KW Almost Solely PV but some Solar Thermal

Mostly Fixed but some tracking

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Solar Has Many Benefits

Fuel is free

Renewable

Inexhaustible

Matches well with peak demand

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Solar Has Drawbacks

Expensive capacity

Variable (but somewhat predictable) ~14-33% capacityfactor

Seattle, WA with fixed-tilt panels: 14% capacity factor

Phoenix, AZ with 2-axis tracking: 33% capacity factor

Lower efficiency than power plants (10-20%)

Benchtop efficiency >40%

Much of the sun is where people arent

But that is changing as people move to the sun-belt

Land intensive

But, dual-use with urban rooftops

Source: DoE, Solar technologies Market Report, 20089/29/14 23

Solar Basics Some Trigonometry Required

Solar Flux is Roughly Fixed

Only ~1000W/m2Reaches Us

Our Latitude Only Makes it WorseSo We Angle the Panels


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Solar Basics The Earth Rotates!

And the Axis Isnt Vertical With Respect to the Axis of Orbit!

The Practicality/Utility of Solar Depends

Geographic Location: Lower latitudes receive more sunlight

Climate: Can affect generation as well as demand

Electricity Cost: Some regions have very low cost alternatives

Norway High Latitude, very low annual insolation

Cold Climate so Heating & Cooling demands are out of phase with generation Very abundant and cheap Hydro-Power resources

Caribbean Islands

Low Latitude, very high annual insolation Warm Climate so Heating & Cooling demands are in phase with generation Very expensive electricity (imported Oil, Coal, & Gas for power plants)


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America is a Large Country with 8 Climate Zones

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Concentrated Solar Power

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Concentrated Solar

Primarily Utility Scale

Requires at LeastSingle Axis Tracking

Can be PV or Thermal

Concentrated Solar Thermal Mechanical

Capital Intensive

Requires at Least Single AxisTracking

Can Provide Power at Night


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Concentrated Solar Thermal Electric

Primarily Utility Scale

Requires Dual Axis Tracking

Limited to Solar Hours

Best in High Solar Potential Areas

Concentrated Solar PV

Parabolic Concentrator

Trough Concentrator

Spherical Concentrator


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Concentrated Solar PV & Thermal

11 m2Parabolic Dish

2 KW Electric Generation 5 KW of Hot Water 7 KW Total Energy Capture (64% Efficiency)

Solar Thermal Chemical?

Concentrated SolarUsing Thermal EnergyTo convert Natural GasTo Syngas

Perhaps an Oil FieldApplication?

Combine Free Solar Energywith Free NatGas (otherwiseflared) to produce SynGas (adiesel substitute) to fuel

vehicles and/or generators inthe oil fields.

Anyone care to start acompany with me?

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Solar Photovoltaic

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To Track or Not to Track, That is the Question


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Daily Versus Annual Average

Two Axis Tracking, Annual Min & Max


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Fixed South Facing, Annual Min & Max

Actual Results May Vary

Added Complexity

Added Cost

Added Maintenance

With Panel Prices Dropping, is itCheaper to just install MorePanels?


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Solar Resources Vary Geographically

Solar PV Module Prices Drop Over Time

Source: NREL9/29/14 42


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Solar PV Panel Prices Drop Over Time

Source: NREL

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>6 fold reduction in Silicon Cost ($0.53 to $0.08)

Solar PV System Prices Drop Over Time

Source: SEIA

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~4kW Residential Solar US vs FRG (2012)

Source: NREL

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$3/W

$0.5/W

$5/W

$2/W

Solar PV Continues to Improve

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Solar PV in the Future Will Have Better

Performance Characteristics

Flexible panels (for backpacks, clothes, etc.)

Thinner layers (paints, asphalts, etc.)

Carbon based (instead of silicon based)

Based on infrared (IR) so they work at night

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Maybe Infrared Solar Panels That Work At

Night Will Be The Wave Of The Future

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Index

solar_

data$gh_

rad_

avg

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00

Global Horizontal

Diffuse Horizontal

Direct

Ultraviolet

Infrared

RadiationIntensity(W/m2)

Source: Rhodes & Webber, 20139/29/14 48


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Utility Scale PV Versus Private PV

Buy/Lease the Land

Build the Support Structure

Buy & Install the System

Build Transmission to Grid

Utility Scale PV Versus Private PV

With Existing Residential,the Land, Structure, &Transmission are Already inPlace.

Buy & Install the System


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So Why is Utility Scale PV Cheaper?

Where are the costs for: Land Structure

Transmission????

Texas Solar Insolation

Source: NREL

[NREL]


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Concentrated Solar Power

And we now have the Infrastructure to tap it


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Austin Energy Bets Big On Solar

Austin Energy is positioned to exceed its overall 200 MWsolar goal with a new Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) forup to 150 megawatts (MW) of solar energy to be built inWest Texas by Sun Edison.

The 25-year contract is for the output of two solar farms and willcost $21 million annually for 25 years for a total estimatedamount of $525 million. Long-term fixed pricing will be in therange of $45 to $55 per MWh and are among the lowest solarprices available in the solar industry today.

Texas Could Bet Big On Solar


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North Africa Has Fantastic Solar Potential

North Africa Could Bet Big On Solar


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che fall 2014 hydro & solar 2x grey scale

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