cheltenham festival - against the crowd€¦ · key trends point to festival winners the cheltenham...

Cheltenham FestivalWinning Profiles 2017

(Races to be run Tuesday 14th March to Friday 17th March)

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Key trends point to Festival winners The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing.

The G1 Championship races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing game.

• The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2-mile

hurdler.

• The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over

the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2-miles. The race is run on the

Wednesday of the Festival

• On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the Stayers’ Hurdle designed to find the best

staying hurdler over a trip of 3-miles.

• Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase – a race which has become a

Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

• On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup – the staying chasers’

Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs.

These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division – at least those which are fit – tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. Nothing is being saved for another day.

The championship races are invariably run at a red-hot pace. This, in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses in receipt of luck in running, can prevail on the day.

A horse can run the race of its life in a Championship race at the Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten.

So how do we solve these betting puzzles?

It’s never ‘easy’ to solve these races – but help is at hand in the form of historical evidence.

Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time again in the Championship races.

The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials….

They have similar qualifications….

They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks….

Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….

They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile….

Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends tend to fall short.

It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least.

And that information can help you reach betting decisions….

No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another.

We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason.

The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races.

In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for each of the G1 Championship races set to be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival – the races where year-on-year the trends most frequently remain consistent.


I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races.

These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing them over to you.

They don’t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case of A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless – much of which you won’t find elsewhere.

Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem strongest or most important to you.

Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential candidates.

It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market are completely unaware of.

Considering those are the people you are betting against when the Festival races get underway, it is clear the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge.

What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to his own.

Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine. Other use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws – so that they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges or backing one or more of their opponents.

Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right Profile boxes but which are being over-looked by the wider market.

I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. I’ve had good days where I’ve backed big winners at big prices. And I’ve had plenty of losing days too. I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable consequence of how I


play the game. For me it’s a long-term affair. In seeking out value bets I aim to back sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices to get ahead of the game over time…. How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the betting markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job to load the gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is your business….

All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better.

Let us know how you get on.

Best wishes,

Nick PullenJanuary 2017


The Profile of a Champion Hurdle winnerThe Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the Championship event for the hurdlers. We can usually rely on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a really big field now and again.

The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2-mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst the older horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Course Map

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The table below highlights the last 19 winners of the Champion Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….

Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer

2016 Annie Powe M IRE 8 162 12 27 164 139 5/2 F W P Mullins

2015 Faugheen G IRE 7 169 7 74 169 141 4/5 F W P Mullins

2014 Jezki G IRE 6 165 10 44 167 151 9/1 Mrs John Harrington

2013 Hurricane Fly G IRE 9 172 19 44 173 161 13/8 F W P Mullins

2012 Rock On Ruby G IRE 7 165 6 78 166 160 11/1 Paul Nicholls

2011 Hurricane Fly G IRE 7 167 11 51 169 153 11/4 F W P Mullins

2010 Binocular G FR 6 163 10 38 172 158 9/1 Nicky Henderson

2009 Punjabi G GB 6 163 12 24 164 160 22/1 Nicky Henderson

2008 Katchit G IRE 5 159 12 24 162 157 10/1 Alan King

2007 Sublimity G FR 7 0 5 45 148 139 16/1 John G Carr

2006 Brave Inca G IRE 8 0 20 44 170 151 7/4 F C A Murphy

2005 Hardy Eustace G IRE 8 0 16 31 170 155 7/2 J D T Hughes

2004 Hardy Eustace G IRE 7 0 10 31 156 123 33/1 D T Hughes

2003 Rooster Booster G GB 9 167 25 38 170 154 9/2 2 Philip Hobbs

2002 Hors La Loi III G FR 7 153 16 19 166 152 10/1 James Fanshawe

2000 Istabraq G IRE 8 0 23 51 181 174 8/15 F A P O’Brien



1997 Make A Stand G GB 6 0 11 30 157 157 7/1 M C Pipe

Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times in total. His last 28 participants have generated 2 wins and 8 additional placed finishes. Willie Mullins has been the star-man over the last few years. His last 18 runners have produced 4 winners and 4 placed finishers.

Bloodlines of note – It is worth noting that horses sired by Oscar seem particularly suited to the test this race presents. His last 6 runners have produced a winner and 3 additional horses that hit the frame.

In the plate – The top jockeys have enjoyed most success in this event in recent times. Barry Geraghty has partnered two winners and 4 placed horses from 13 rides. Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15 rides. For sure, the top jockeys get the best rides – but they get them for a reason.


Market pointers – Where the championship races are concerned, this is the race where I’m happiest to look for a horse down the prices. Nine of the winners over the last 19 years came from out of the top 3 in the market – 6 won at double-figure SPs.

I’ve studied the last 19 renewals of the Champion Hurdle and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….

Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….

• All of the last 19 winners had raced at least 5 times over hurdles (16 had raced

at least 10 times)

• 18 had appeared on the track since Christmas

• 18 had already run over hurdles at Cheltenham (16 registering a top 3 finish)

• 17 had scored a Racing Post rating of 156+ at 16f or 17f

• 17 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ over hurdles

• 17 had a strike rate of 40%+ over hurdles at 16f or 17f

• 17 had raced no more than 20 times over hurdles

• 17 had won a hurdle race in a field of 15+ runners

• 16 had scored a top 4 finish at the previous season’s Festival (Annie Power would have had she stood-up at the last obstacle in the Mares Hurdle)

• 16 were aged 6- to 8-years-old

• 16 had appeared in a G1 hurdle race that season

• 16 had scored a career-best RPR over hurdles of 160+

• 16 had raced over hurdles at 18f+ (14 registering a win)

• 15 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 hurdle races

• 15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating over hurdles of 150+

• 15 had won last time out

• 15 had not been outside the first 3 in any completed hurdle race that term

• 15 had won either a G1 or a G2 hurdle race that season

• 14 had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles that season

• 13 had scored 154+ at a trip beyond 17f


• 11 of the last 13 winners had a won a G1 over hurdles at 16f or 17f

• 10 of the last 13 winners had hit the top 3 in a hurdle race worth £40k+ that

season

• 10 of the last 13 winners had won a hurdle race worth £52k+

Horses that best-measure up to the blueprint can be considered strong contenders in this season’s renewal. And if you can find a contender at a juicy price then that’s all the better….


The Profile of a Champion Chase winner

The Champion Chase is the feature race of Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival and is the pinnacle event in racing for chasers over the minimum distance. The list of recent winners reads like a Who’s Who of 21st Century chasers and this race has very rarely produced a freak result. The only downside is that it rarely attracts a big field. But the race is never less than exciting with quality chasers taking their fences at real speed.

This is a Grade 1 event for chasers over 2 miles and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Course Map

The table below highlights the last 19 winners of the Champion Chase, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….


Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer

2016 Sprinter Sacre G FR 10 170 16 80 190 165 5/1 2 Nicky Henderson

2015 Dodging Bullets G GB 7 171 9 53 173 159 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls

2014 Sire De Grugy G FR 8 169 11 53 174 158 11/4 F Gary Moore

2013 Sprinter Sacre G FR 7 179 7 46 178 165 1/4 F Nicky Henderson

2012 Finian’s Rainbow G IRE 9 164 7 53 167 154 4/1 2 Nicky Henderson

2011 Sizing Europe G IRE 9 160 9 45 166 166 10/1 Henry De Bromhead

2010 Big Zeb G IRE 9 165 13 45 171 159 10/1 C A Murphy

2009 Master Minded G FR 6 186 10 53 186 185 4/11 F Paul Nicholls

2008 Master Minded G FR 5 170 6 33 168 143 3/1 2 Paul Nicholls

2007 Voy Por Ustedes G FR 6 167 9 32 167 160 5/1 3 Alan King

2006 Newmill G IRE 8 0 8 55 155 155 16/1 John Joseph Murphy

2005 Moscow Flyer G IRE 11 0 22 45 181 177 6/4 F Mrs John Harrington

2004 Azertyuiop G FR 7 172 8 32 179 161 15/8 2 Paul Nicholls

2003 Moscow Flyer G IRE 9 0 11 38 168 140 7/4 F Mrs John Harrington

2002 Flagship Uberalles G IRE 8 169 18 95 173 177 7/4 F Philip Hobbs

2000 Edredon Bleu G FR 8 160 16 39 167 171 7/2 2 Henrietta Knight

1999 Call Equiname G GB 9 150 4 53 157 164 7/2 2 Paul Nicholls

1998 One Man G IRE 10 0 24 35 179 167 7/2 3 Gordon Richards

1997 Martha’s Son G GB 10 0 12 21 167 161 9/1 T A Forster

Yards with form – Paul Nicholls has been the man with the right horses in recent times – with the likes of Azertyuiop, Master Minded and, more recently, Dodging Bullets, flying the Ditcheat flag. Nicky Henderson has won three of the last 5 renewals. The bottom line is that past form counts for little. You need the right horse right now.

Market pointer – The market has been a decent guide in recent times with 15 of the winners since 1997 going off in the front 3 market positions. Only one of the last 19 winners went off at an SP bigger than 10s.

I’ve studied the last 19 renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….

Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….

• 18 of the last 19 winners had already won at least 4 times over fences

• 18 had raced at least 6 times over fences

• 17 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ at 16f to 17f over fences

• 17 had scored a best chasing RPR of 166+


• 17 had scored 163+ last time out over fences

• 17 had scored a best of 154+ on the Topspeed scale

• 17 had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase that term

• 17 had already won or finished 2nd in an Open Grade 1 chase (11 had won one

of last two such races contested)

• 17 had raced at 16f or 17f over fences last time out

• 16 had been off the track between 32 and 55 days

• 16 had an overall strike rate of 50%+ over fences

• 16 had scored career-best chasing RPR over fences at 16f or 17f

• 16 had already raced over fences at the track (13 producing a win)

• 15 had contested a Grade 1 chase that term

• 15 were no older than 9-years-old (incl. 11 of last 13 winners)

• 15 had won last chase completed

• 15 had won at trips of 18f+ (just 2 had gone beyond 21f)

• 15 had appeared at a previous Festival (10 securing a top 3 finish)

• 12 of the last 13 winners appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out

• 11 of the last 13 winners had raced no more than 15 times over fences

• 11 of the last 13 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season

• 11 of the last 13 winners had won a chase worth £50k+ to winning connections

Another very strong set of Winning Profile stats there which will enable you to pinpoint the best-qualified contenders and swerve the horses that will be running for pride and down-the-order money….


The Profile of a Stayers’ Hurdle winnerThe World Hurdle is the Championship event for the staying hurdlers. Working with the stats for this race is slightly confused by the fact that 3 horses – Big Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Baracouda – won 9 of the last 19 renewals between them. With that in mind I have focused most attention on figures extracted from the 13 renewals since 1997 to feature a first-time winner.

This is Grade 1 event contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-01. The older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the 7lb allowance.

Course Map

The table below highlights the last 19 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….


Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer

2016 Thistlecrack G GB 8 168 9 47 172 133 Evs F Colin Tizzard

2015 Cole Harden G IRE 6 158 10 47 158 135 14/1 Warren Greatrex

2014 More Of That G IRE 6 160 4 89 161 118 15/2 3 Jonjo O’Neill

2013 Solwhit G FR 9 154 20 54 165 167 17/2 C Byrnes

2012 Big Buck’s G FR 9 174 19 47 178 154 5/6 F Paul Nicholls



2009 Big Buck’s G FR 6 170 6 47 166 96 6/1 3 Paul Nicholls

2008 Inglis Drever G GB 9 172 20 47 170 162 11/8 F Howard Johnson

2007 Inglis Drever G GB 8 163 16 47 167 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson

2006 My Way De Solzen G FR 6 157 10 25 159 122 8/1 Alan King

2005 Inglis Drever G GB 6 157 9 26 165 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson

2004 Iris’s Gift G GB 7 168 8 33 173 160 9/2 2 Jonjo O’Neill

2003 Baracouda G FR 8 0 17 83 176 147 9/4 J F Doumen

2002 Baracouda G FR 7 0 14 20 176 147 13/8 F F Doumen

2000 Bacchanal G IRE 6 163 6 47 165 147 11/2 3 Nicky Henderson

1999 Anzum G GB 8 148 16 20 157 151 40/1 David Nicholson

1998 Princeful G IRE 7 0 9 42 147 140 16/1 Jenny Pitman

1997 Karshi G GB 7 0 8 36 146 143 20/1 Henrietta Knight

Yards with form – Trainers that have handled any one of the multiple winners clearly stand out on the stats. Of the rest, Alan King’s runners are worth a look. He’s saddled just one winner but 4 of his other 14 runners hit the frame. Market pointers – Thirteen of the last 19 winners could be found in the top 3 of the market.

I’ve studied each of the last 19 renewals but I’ve focused my attention most closely on the 13 renewals since 1997 featuring first-time winners of the race. I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….

Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)…

• All of the last 13 first-time winners had won at least twice over hurdles

• All had raced no more than 24 times under rules in total (on flat, in bumpers,

over hurdles or over fences)

• 12 had appeared over hurdles at Cheltenham (9 producing a top 2 finish)


• 12 had won a race against at least 10 opponents

• 11 were operating over hurdles at a winning strike rate in excess 37.5%+

• 11 had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 157+ (7 had scored 165+)

• 11 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races

• 10 of the last 13 first-time winners were aged 6 or 7

• 11 had run between 2 and 4 times over hurdles that term

• 11 had raced in last 7 weeks

• 10 of the last 13 first time winners had scored at least 133 over hurdles on the

Topspeed scale

• 9 had appeared at a previous Festival (6 producing at least one top 6 finish)

• 10 had scored 150+ last time out (8 had scored 156+)

• 10 had won a Grade race that season

• 10 had already finished 1st or 2nd in an Open Grade 1 race

• 10 had raced between 6 and 14 times over hurdles

• 10 of the last 11 first-time winners contested a Grade race last time out

• 9 of the last 10 first-time winners had not been outside the first 2 in a hurdle race

that term

• 6 had not run over hurdles at 24f+ (4 of those had scored 157+ at longest trip

encountered)

• 6 of the last 9 first-time winners had won a hurdle race worth £37k+ to winning

connections

• 6 of that 7 that had run over hurdles at 24f+ had produced a win (and each of

them had scored an RPR of 157+ at that kind of trip)

Those stats will guide you to the horses best-qualified and best-equipped to prove competitive in this season’s premier event for staying hurdlers….


The Profile of a Ryanair Chase winner

Since its introduction to the Festival programme in 2005 the Ryanair Chase has developed into something of a championship event for the middle-distance chasers and – for my money at least – represents one of the best races held at the meeting. It attracts decent fields of high-quality runners and has produced some really exciting finishes over the last few years.

This is a Grade 1 race run over the 21-furlong trip and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10 with mares getting the standard 7lb allowance.

Course Map

The table below highlights the last 12 winners of the Ryanair Chase, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….



2016 Vautour G FR 7 176 6 82 180 150 Evs F W P Mullins

2015 Uxizandre G FR 7 161 9 33 166 130 16/1 Alan King

2014 Dynaste G FR 8 169 7 77 175 127 3/1 F David Pipe

2013 Cue Card G GB 7 165 8 26 170 156 7/2 2 Colin Tizzard

2012 Riverside Theatre G GB 8 168 8 26 172 160 7/2 F Nicky Henderson

2011 Albertas Run G IRE 10 166 22 61 171 152 6/1 2 Jonjo O’Neill

2010 Albertas Run G IRE 9 162 17 26 171 148 14/1 Jonjo O’Neill

2009 Imperial Commander G IRE 8 156 5 76 160 160 6/1 2 Nigel Twiston-Davies

2008 Our Vic G IRE 10 165 17 47 173 166 4/1 2 David Pipe

2007 Taranis G FR 6 152 7 40 158 151 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls

2006 Fondmort G FR 10 157 27 26 165 160 100/30 J Nicky Henderson

2005 Thisthatandtother G IRE 9 155 11 47 164 159 9/2 2 Paul Nicholls

Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice and placed once but all because of one horse – Albertas Run. Where strong performances from multiple horses are concerned it’s a case of the same old story. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are the men with the best records. Henderson has had 2 winners and three places from 15 runners. Nicholls has produced 2 winners and 2 places from his 16 representatives. David Pipe has produced in this race too – 6 runners producing two wins and a place. Alan King’s last 7 participants have produced a win and two place finishes.

Bloodlines of note – King’s Theatre sired two of the last 5 winners of the race – Riverside Theatre and Cue Card.

Market pointers – Consensus horses have been to the fore in the short history of this race. Ten of the 12 winners to date were sent off in the front 3 of the market. I’ve studied the 12 renewals of the Ryanair Chase to date and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


• All had run in a chase at Cheltenham (11 finishing in top 2 and 8 hitting that level

multiple times)

• All had been off the track at least 26 days

• 11 had appeared at a previous Festival (10 registering at least one top 5 finish)


• 11 had run in 2 to 4 chases that term


• 11 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 155+ (8 of the last 9 were rated

161+)

• 11 had scored a career-best RPR over fences of 160+

• 11 had won at least 4 times over fences

• 11 had appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out

• 11 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get the figures for this

year’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

• 10 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 races over fences

• 10 had scored an RPR of 160+ at 20f to 22f over fences

• 10 had finished in the first 3 in a Graded chase that term

• 10 had a chase strike-rate of 30%+

• 10 had won at least 2 chases at 19f to 22f

• 10 had raced no more than 17 times over fences

• 9 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last two chases contested

• 9 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+

• 9 of the last 10 winners had contested a race worth £80k+ that term (7 producing

a top 3 finish)

• 9 of the last 12 winners had already won a chase worth at least £50k to winning

connections

• 9 had a strike rate of 33%+ over fences at 19f to 22f

• 9 had contested races at 24f+ over fences (7 producing performances worth

164+)

• All the last 9 winners had run in a Grade 1 chase that term


Another strong Winning Profile with a range of significant and informative stats which will swiftly draw your attention to the runners most likely to be competitive in this season’s renewal….


http://www.pedigreequery.com/

The Profile of a Gold Cup winnerThe finale of the Festival (at least as far as we are concerned) is the feature race of the week – the Gold Cup. This is the most prestigious of all NH races – the richest on the programme. The horse that wins is pretty much seen as the Premier Champion of the sport. The race tests just about everything a horse can be tested on – speed, jumping, stamina, heart, character and temperament – and represents the ultimate test in jumps racing.

The race is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 26f trip and 22 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yos carry 11-09. Older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.

Course Map

The table below highlights the last 19 winners of the Gold Cup, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….



2016 Don Cossack G GER 9 175 18 64 181 165 9/4 F Gordon Elliott

2015 Coneygree G GB 8 166 3 34 169 152 7/1 2 Mark Bradstock

2014 Lord Windermere G IRE 8 152 9 33 157 123 20/1 J H Culloty

2013 Bobs Worth G IRE 8 171 5 104 174 164 11/4 F Nicky Henderson

2012 Synchronised G IRE 9 167 8 79 171 151 8/1 3 Jonjo O’Neill

2011 Long Run G FR 6 179 9 62 181 163 7/2 F Nicky Henderson

2010 Imperial Commander G IRE 9 174 9 83 177 173 7/1 3 Nigel Twiston-Davies

2009 Kauto Star G FR 9 177 20 77 184 176 7/4 F Paul Nicholls

2008 Denman G IRE 8 176 8 34 183 157 9/4 2 Paul Nicholls

2007 Kauto Star G FR 7 176 10 34 184 169 5/4 F Paul Nicholls

2006 War Of Attrition G IRE 7 0 9 79 167 139 15/2 3 M F Morris

2005 Kicking King G IRE 7 0 11 82 177 160 4/1 F T J Taaffe

2004 Best Mate G IRE 9 175 12 81 178 168 8/11 F Henrietta Knight

2003 Best Mate G IRE 8 170 9 77 176 166 13/8 F Henrietta Knight

2002 Best Mate G IRE 7 169 6 78 172 165 7/1 3 Henrietta Knight

2000 Looks Like Trouble G IRE 8 170 10 47 173 170 9/2 2 Noel Chance

1999 See More Business G IRE 9 166 13 47 172 166 16/1 Paul Nicholls

1998 Cool Dawn G IRE 10 0 12 40 163 153 25/1 Robert Alner

1997 Mr Mulligan G IRE 9 0 7 78 170 163 20/1 Noel Chance

Yards with form – Paul Nicholls had the boss hand for quite a few years with Kauto Star and Denman in his arsenal. More recently Nicky Henderson has come to the fore with 2 winners in the last 6 years.

Market pointers – It is always tempting to try and find a Hollywood bet in these big races – but this is one race where that policy has failed in recent times. 15 of the last 16 winners emerged from the front 3 in the market – and only the 2014 winner, Lord Windermere, went off bigger than 8s. By the time this race comes around the market generally has a good handle on the participants.

I’ve studied the last 19 renewals of the Gold Cup and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….



• All of the last 19 winners had produced career-best chase RPR at 24f to 27f

• All had been off the track at least 5 weeks (9 of the last 13 winners had been off

the track for 62+ days)

• 17 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton last time out

• 18 had appeared at a previous Festival (13 had made the top 3 in a Festival

race)


• 17 had raced in no more than 13 chases (7 of the last 9 winners has raced in no

more than 9)

• 18 had raced in no more than 18 races in total

• 18 had won at least 3 races over fences


• 17 had run at least twice over fences that season

• 17 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season

• 17 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (13 hitting the front 2)

• 17 contested a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase last time out

• 17 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out

• 17 had made the top 2 in a Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f

• 17 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+

• 17 had form over the Cheltenham fences (15 having hit the top 3 in a chase at

the track)

• 16 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+

• 16 had won that season

• 15 had scored career-best rating in one of last 3 races over fences

• 14 were bred in Ireland

• 13 had a strike-rate of 40%+ over fences at trips of 24f to 27f

• 14 of the 15 previous winners with an official rating going into the race were rated

166+


• 14 finished 1st or 2nd last time out

• 11 of the last 13 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point

in their chasing career (9 had won one of the last two such races contested)

• 12 of the last 13 winners had a strike-rate of 45%+ over fences

• 6 of the last 10 winners had won a chase worth at least £70k that term

The bigger the race the stronger the range of statistical credentials a horse must possess. Winning Profiles don’t get any stronger than the one above. Horses that tick most boxes are the ones on which you should be betting.


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