graph lines for the monthly change in production and new orders, has in­deed flashed.

In 1974, the negative-change lines crossed upward through the positive lines at almost the exact time the re­cession hit the broad range of manu­facturing industries. The lines di­verged widely during the recession and then crossed at almost the exact time the recession ended in 1975.

Employment and price patterns in NAPM's survey also look bad at the moment. Employment took its first bad spill in November, and prices continue to soar.

Three NAPM measures give con­siderable hope for a mild downturn. Haffey says that the state of inven­tories is much better than in 1974-75 and, in fact, shows no sign of excess. Forward buying also has stayed nor­mal in contrast to its extreme range in 1974. Another plus is strength in capital spending, which NAPM's in­dicators show continuing in 1980.

Although the forecast by the Con­ference Board, a New York City business research group, does not contain the degree of current detail of NAPM's, it has the advantage of giving the actual magnitude of eco­nomic decline in 1980. Gross national product in constant dollars will dip 0.4% in 1980 after an increase of 2% in 1979, the group's economic forum members expect.

The Conference Board expects a slow recovery in the second half of 1980. Inflation will continue to be the most difficult economic issue of the year. •

Du Pont to sell 80% of its dyes business Du Pont has followed up on its earlier announcement that it would go out of the dyes business by agreeing to sell about 80% of the business to four different companies (C&EN, June 11, page 6).

Du Pont has sold its paper dyes business to Mobay Chemical, the U.S. arm of West Germany's Bayer, and it has reached agreements in principle to sell other segments to three other companies—Morton Chemical divi­sion of Morton-Norwich, Ciba-Geigy, and Crompton & Knowles.

According to Du Pont, Morton has agreed to purchase technology and related information to manufacture and sell ink black and Luxol solvent-soluble dyes for inks, plastics, and coatings. Ciba-Geigy will license technology to manufacture and sell selected dyes for polyester fibers and polyester cotton blends and dyes for nylon. These are sold under the

8 C&EN Dec. 10, 1979

tradenames Latyl and Merpacyl. Crompton & Knowles has agreed to buy technology to manufacture and sell Sevron cationic textile dyes for acrylics, cationic dyeable polyester and nylon, and specialty carpet styl­ing yarns. It also will buy the tech­nology for Merpacyl orange RAR acid dye for nylon carpeting and rhoda-mine WT, for water tracing.

The units that Du Pont has sold and agreed to sell have estimated sales of more than $80 million. Alto­gether, Du Pont's dyes business rep­resented about 1% of the company's sales (or about $106 million in 1978). This amounts to about 15% of the total U.S. market for dyes of $700 million and about 2.4% of the total $4.5 billion world market.

According to a Du Pont spokes­

man, the sale leaves only pieces of certain dye lines to be disposed of plus Du Pont Puerto Rico's Manati dyes plant. The Manati plant, a highly automated production unit, is relatively new, having come on stream in early 1975. The remaining parts of lines may just be closed, however. Du Pont will retain its Mexican opera­tion, Colorquim S.A. de C.V., a sub­sidiary that produces dyes for the Mexican and Latin American textile, paper, and specialties industries. Unlike the U.S. businesses, this op­eration has been profitable.

Du Pont has said that it has been losing money on its U.S. dyes business for the past five years and sees no sign of turning the business around. Wall Street estimates put the losses as high as $25 million before taxes. ρ

Chem Show to alternate between New York, Chicago

The 1979 Chem Show that last week filled New York City's Coliseum with exhibits like these above marked a turning point in the history of the show—formally, the Exposition of Chemical Industries. It was the last of the Chem Shows in the series that for many years has provided a biennial look at the state of the art in chemical process equipment. From now on, the Chem Show will be an annual affair, and it will alternate between New York City and Chicago. As an experiment, the show, held since 1915 in New York, moved to Chicago in 1977. According to Vincent McDonnell, president of International Exposition Co., which manages the show, a survey taken there found that 6 2 % of the Chicago visitors had never been to a Chem Show before and 18% had not been to one in four years. As the survey thus indicated that the New York and Chicago shows serve two essentially different and distinct market areas and as four years seemed too long a break for the New York area, the company decided to make the show an annual event.