chertow lecture #1

Approaching Modern China

Center for Industrial Ecology

Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心

Prof. Marian ChertowPresentation to:

Mandarin China - Yale Educational TravelOctober 2008

Outline – Approaching Modern China

A word from our sponsors – Yale, Forestry & Environmental Studies,

Industrial Environmental Management Industrial ecology – following the flows – the

fit with modern China

Some data Economy Population

Government structure

Which is the real China?

DivinityDivinity

MedicineMedicine

ManagementManagement

Law Law

MusicMusic

DramaDrama

ArchitectureArchitecture

NursingNursing

ArtArt

Forestry and Forestry and Environmental StudiesEnvironmental Studies

Yale CollegeYale College17011701


• The family of Gifford Pinchot endowed the founding of Yale’s School of Forestry in 1900.

• Gifford Pinchot, YC 1889, was the first Chief of the US Forestry Service (1905-10) under President Teddy Roosevelt

"every stream is a unit from its source to its mouth, and all its uses are interdependent“

•Name change in 1972TR and Pinchot


Yale’s environment school is needed as never before. As environmental issues have become more complex and more international, the new generation of environmental leaders will increasingly need professional training in environmental science, management, and policy.

— Dean James Gustave SpethGus at UNDP

Brown and Green: the Dark Side

Classes I am teaching:• Business and Environment (NUS)• Greening Business Operations • Corporate Environmental Management and Strategy• Industrial Ecology • Advanced Seminar: Industrial Ecology and the Circular

Economy in China

Industrial Ecology …

looks at human/industrial systems in the context of their natural surroundings

“Industrial ecology is the study of the flows of materials and energy in

industrial and consumer activities, of the effects of these flows on the

environment, and of the influences of economic, political, regulatory, and social factors on the flow, use, and

transformation of resources.”

Defining Industrial Ecology Robert White NAE 1994

China consumes:

half of the world’s cement output,

a third of its steel, a quarter of its copper, and a fifth of its aluminum

Asian Development Bank, Asian Environmental Outlook 2005

China and Business: The Mega-Story

The only way for manufacturers to compete with China is to move operations to China themselves.

“China makes you sharp or it kills you.”

Wall Street JournalMarch 2004

Rank Country Industrial production Date of Info.

growth rate(%)

1 Sudan 32.00 2007 est.

2 Azerbaijan 31.00 2007 est.

3 Angola 24.40 2007 est.

4 Vietnam 17.10 2007 est.

5 Equatorial Guinea 14.10 2007 est.

6 Egypt 13.80 2007 est.

7 China 12.90 2007 est~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~166 United Kingdom 0.70 2007 est.

167 Belize 0.50 2007 est.

168 Zimbabwe 0.50 2007 est.

169 United States 0.50 2007 est.

170 Saudi Arabia 0.20 2007 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

China’s Manufacturing Workforce

Worlds largest at 104 million 2x the number of manufacturing

workers in the US, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combined

Computers and computer parts in Guandong Province: “If there is a traffic jam between Dongguan

and Hong Kong, 70% of the world’s computer market will be affected.”

A. Harney, The China Price, The Penguin Press, 2008

Production goes well beyond traditional industries…

China is the number one producer of solar photovoltaics, with > 200 manufacturers creating 1700 MW of panels in 2007, nearly half of total world production of 3,800 MW.

China has become the world's leading proponent of solar heating technology

China is among the world leaders in wind energy with as much as 70% of the components made in China.

Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), Scientific American, August 4, 2008

TABLE 2. Incidence of Poverty – World Bank-ILO

People PeopleBelow Below$2/Day $2/Day

Late-1980s Late-1990s

China 67.4% 50.1%India 83.2% 78.8%Africa 76.1% 76.1%ANEEL KARNANI, THE MIRAGE OF MARKETING TO THE BOPCALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW VOL. 49, NO. 4 SUMMER 2007

Source: Altenburg et al (2008),. Breakthrough? China’s and India’s transition from production to innovation. World Development, Volume 36, No. 2, 325-344

From 1995-2004 China’s contribution to global production of scientific

publications rose from 2.0% to 6.5%

Averages Tell Us Little About China: Income of urban and rural residents

The Infamy of 2005!

Demography

China's population doubled in 50 years to 1.3 billion today.

China is home to approximately 20% of the world's 6.4 billion

people. 170 cities over 1 million population Total of 56 ethnic groups, of which the

largest is the Han Chinese.

Population Trends in China, India, and the United States, 1950 - 2050

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Heskesth, T et al. (2005) The Effect of One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years. The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 353:1171-1176

China

The Distribution of World Population

Longevity is rapidly increasing

Some Figures…..

Life Expectancy

0

20

40

60

80

100

1949 1995 2050

Year

Ag

e Men

Women

Fertility is rapidly decreasing

Some Figures…..

Birth Rate per 1000

5

10

15

20

25

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Linked to one-child policy

Beginning in 2010 the world’s most populous nation will enter a 30 year period of rapid aging

What does Aging in China mean?The Numbers

more than 300 million people 65 and older by 2050

more than 20% of the population 65 and older by 2050

Population Age 65 and older

050

100150200250300350

Mill

ion

s

Aging in China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1953

1982

1995

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

65+

15-64

0-14

USA - China

A half century from now China will have a larger population over 65 by percent than USA

And in comparison with the rest of the world?

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

2000 2030 2050

Percentage of Popolutaion 65+

USA

China

And in comparison with the rest of the world?

A half century from now the number of China’s elderly will be far greater than the combined elderly population of North America, Europe and Japan

Population Age 65 and Older, 2000

North America

38,6 millionJapan

21,9 million

China 87,9 million

Europe and Russia 106,9

million

Population Age 65 and Older, 2050

China331,9

million

Europe and Russia176,2

million

Japan29,8 million

North America

93,6 million

Another implication of demography

From 1985 – 2000, average household size decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people

Smaller households consume more resources per person

Per capita house floor area has tripled since the late 1970s

Liu and Diamond, Nature Vol 435 June 2005

PRC government structure

China’s legal framework (1) Constitutionally, the National People’s

Congress (NPC) is the highest legislative body in China empowered to enact and amend: fundamental national statutes including statutes related to the establishment and

organization of certain government institutions.Generally in session only two weeks per year (usually

in March) Standing Committee of the NPC authorized to

enact and amend all national laws General office of NPC puts together a Five-Year

Legislative Plan.

China’s legal framework (2)

The State Council, below the National People’s Congress, is China’s highest administrative organ and the executive authority of the NPC.

Functions and powers: Approve and promulgate nat’l administrative

regulations Issue decisions and orders in accordance with the

Constitution and other laws Review legislative proposals for referral to NPC or its

Standing Committee Oversee the work of its underlying ministries and

commissions

PRC government structure II

Central Government

Province and Autonomous Regions

Prefecture – level Municipalities

Centrally Administered Municipalities

Districts Counties County-level Cities

Districts Counties

Townships

Villages

Townships

Villages

Townships

Villages

3 types

Source:Ma and Ortolano,2000

3 at samelevel

Differences in emphasis from U.S.- I

Five constitutions since 1949 No provision for “checks and balances”

among the branches of government Judiciary has functioned more like a department

of the executive Not a federal system so central government

relies heavily on ad hoc agreements and complex bargaining in dealing with provincial and municipal governments

Role of hortatory government vs. hard regulation.

J. Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 2001.

Differences in emphasis from U.S.- II

Policy is not set by government, but primarily by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

CCP something like a board of directors, but also maintains a parallel organizational structure to that of the government bureaucracy, with Party members overseeing the work of government officials.

J. Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 2001.

Which is the real China I?

Which is the real China II?

Evolving understanding of the fundamental question of development

‘‘development is of overriding importance’’

‘‘development is the top priority’’ ‘‘overall, balanced and sustainable

development’’ gradually giving birth to a scientific

philosophy of development specific to China

A new industrialization model…for reconciling China’s twin goals

To increase economic growth

and social welfare

2000 2010 2020 2050

To decrease resource

consumption and pollution

Revised from: Prof. Zhu Dajian

Addressing imbalances

development of primary, secondary and tertiary industries is not in balance

too much investment in primary industry, particularly heavy industry, but

too little investment in the service industry.

http://www.vub.ac.be/biccs/documents/Asia_briefin_Duncan__2008_22Mar.pdf

Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2008). Revolutionizing China’s environmental protection. Science, Vol 413, 37-38

CO2 emissions are rising in step with growing GDP

National Geographic March 2004

Compared to the average person in China: Americans consume nine times as

much energy, use four times as much water, and release nearly eight times as much

greenhouse gas

Understanding China: 2-sided

HEADS• Large population

• Large consumption

• Rapid industrialization & economic growth

• Coal mining, cement, paper & chemicals sectors outdated

• Energy efficiency ½ of developed world

TAILS• Decreasing pop. growth

• Per capita energy consumption & GDP less than developed countries

• Environmental pollution & effects on human health

• Automobile & fuel sector technologically advanced

• China is a developing country

So which is the real China? (I)

Photo credit: Beijing, Dan Eckstein 2006

So which is the real China? (II)