CHESAPEAKE BAY TMDLPHASE III WIP

NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2ND STAKEHOLDER MEETING

SEPTEMBER 21, 2018

NORMAND GOULET

NVRC

Northern Virginia

Regional Commission

PDC 8

Phase 3 WIP

Local Planning

Area for

Northern

Virginia

VIRGINIA LEVEL OF EFFORT (LOE)PHASE III WIP – SUMMARY

TN TP

Adjustments due to Model Change**

Change in LoE from Phase II to Phase

III WIP

(8.3)%

Change in LoE from Phase II to Phase

III WIP

(16.2)%

Adjustments Due to New Policy Decisions

(Change in Nitrogen

Loads from Base

Target)***

(Percent of WIP III

TN Target)

(Change in

Phosphorus Loads

from Base

Target)***

(Percent of WIP III

TP Target)

Conowingo Not resolved yet

Climate Change 1.72 3.1% 0.193 3.0%

Growth Insufficient data to compute

Approximate Total Changes in LOE

(percent only)(5.2)% (13.2)%

Slide Curtosy of Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

VIRGINIA LEVEL OF EFFORT (LOE)PHASE III WIP – ALL SECTORS

TN

Final Planning

Target

Phase III WIP

Planning Target

Phase II WIP*

2017 Progress

(Phase 6)

∆ LOE

Model Change

(%)

LOE

Remaining (%)

Eastern Shore 1.43 1.55 2.30 8.4 60.8

James 25.92 22.07 24.42 -14.9 -5.8

Potomac 16.0 15.38 17.11 -3.9 6.9

Rappahannock 6.85 6.84 8.09 -0.1 18.1

York 5.52 5.63 6.23 2.0 12.9

VA Total 55.73 51.44 58.16 -7.7 21.5

TP

Final Planning Target

Phase III WIP

Planning Target

Phase II WIP*

2017 Progress

(Phase 6)

∆ LOE

Model Change (%)

LOE

Remaining (%)

Eastern Shore 0.164 0.16 0.17 -2.4 3.7

James 2.731 2.19 2.50 -19.8 -8.5

Potomac 1.892 1.62 1.98 -14.4 4.7

Rappahannock 0.849 0.80 0.91 -5.8 7.2

York 0.556 0.56 0.56 0.7 0.7

VA Total 6.192 5.33 6.226 -13.9 0.5

BEAN COUNTING REALITY

ChesBay TMDL Silo MS4 TMDL Permit Silo

CAST Data

• Regulated Boundaries

BMP Counts

• Locational Data

BMP Credits

• Sectors

Action Plan Data

Action Plan BMP

Action Plan Credits

PDC8 DEVELOPED LOCAL AREA PLANNING GOALS (LAPGS)?

6

Nitrogen

LAPG (Unregulated) Loads 2017 WIP 2 Reduction

Developed 791,469 769,651 21,818

Natural 667,466 680,280 (12,814)

Septic 202,959 241,777 (38,818)

Grand Total 1,661,894 1,691,708 (29,814)

NitrogenRegulated Loads 2017 WIP 2 Reduction

MS4/Construction 754,815 743,076 11,739

Wastewater 1,717,008 3,083,467 (1,366,459)

Grand Total 2,4741,823 3,826,543 (1,354,720)

PDC8 DEVELOPED LOCAL AREA PLANNING GOALS (LAPGS)

7

Phosphorus

LAPG (Unregulated) Loads 2017 WIP 2 Reduction

Developed 111,128 112,505 (1,377)

Natural 133,304 144,502 (11,198)

Septic - - -

Grand Total 244,432 257,007 (12,575)

Phosphorus

Regulated Loads 2017 WIP 2 Reduction

MS4/Construction 87,461 89,122 (1,661)

Wastewater 58,162 164,653 (106,491)

Grand Total 145,623 164,653 (108,152)

NOVA DEVELOPED NITROGEN LOADING LOAD AND WASTE LOAD ALLOCATIONS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2025 WIP II

Acr

es

N L

oad

(Lb

s)

Year

Load Allocation Acres Waste Load Allocation Acres TN Waste Load Allocation TN Load Allocation

NOVA DEVELOPED PHOSPHORUS LOADING LOAD AND WASTE LOAD ALLOCATIONS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2025 WIP II

Acr

es

P L

oad

(Lb

s)

Year

Load Allocation Acres Waste Load Allocation Acres TP Waste Load Allocation TP Load Allocation

PDC8 UNREGULATED DEVELOPED LOAD SOURCES

Buildings andOther

RoadsTree Canopy

over ImperviousTree Canopy

over Turf GrassTurf Grass

2017 Progress 36,713 15,138 8,250 35,385 82,181

WIP 2 2025 36,609 15,197 8,068 36,809 91,075

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2017 and 2025 Unregulated Developed

PDC8 NATURAL LOAD SOURCES

HarvestedForest

Headwateror IsolatedWetland

MixedOpen

Non-tidalFloodplainWetland

True Forest Water

2017 Progress 583 5,326 43,461 15,353 253,373 11,010

WIP 2 2025 3,731 6,074 42,809 14,952 254,319 11,010

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Acr

es

2017 and 2025 Natural Load Source

LAPG UNREGULATED LAND

SEPTIC SYSTEMS

Progress Year

WIP 2

2025 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009

Alexandria 155 169 169 169 169 169 168 166 165 157

Arlington 63 69 69 69 69 69 69 68 68 78

Fairfax City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fairfax 9,769 9,926 9,855 9,784 9,712 9,766 9,742 9,718 9,694 9,605

Falls Church City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Loudoun 25,186 17,039 15,746 14,453 13,160 11,867 11,755 11,644 11,533 11,187

Manassas City 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 12

Manassas Park

City 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22

Prince William 3,573 3,698 3,677 3,654 3,632 3,624 3,617 3,608 3,599 3,540

Grand Total 38,772 30,927 29,541 28,154 26,768 25,520 25,377 25,231 25,085 24,601

DEQ LAPG INPUT DECK TEMPLATE

Northern Virginia PDC

LAPG BMPs (grey background are Annual

BMPs) Unit 2017 % WIP 2 %

2025

Available WIP 3

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient

Discovery Program (IDDE) acres - - 134,044 ?

Bioretention/raingardens - A/B soils acres 405 0.5 4,971 3.4 200,698 ?

Bioretention/raingardens - C/D soils acres 185 0.2 - 200,698 ?

Bioswale acres 71 0.1 - 200,606 ?

Dirt & Gravel Road Erosion & Sediment Control feet - 104 33,568 ?Dirt & Gravel Road Erosion & Sediment Control

- Outlets feet - 254 16,784 ?Dry Detention Ponds and Hydrodynamic

Structures acres 13,393 17.2 9,593 6.6 200,698 ?

Dry Extended Detention Ponds acres 17,120 22.0 18,399 12.7 200,698 ?

Filtering Practices acres 240 0.3 10,286 7.1 200,698 ?

LAPG BMP IMPLEMENTATION

Wet Ponds and Wetlands

24%

Dry Extended Detention Ponds

22%Stormwater Performance Standard-Stormwater Treatment

21%

Dry Detention Ponds and

Hydrodynamic Structures

17%

Erosion and Sediment Control

Level 18%

Nutrient Management

Plan4%

Infiltration2%

Progress 2017 BMP Implementation

Nutrient Management Plan,

45%

Wet Ponds and

Wetlands, 13%

Dry Extended Detention Ponds,

13%

Filtering Practices, 7%

Infiltration, 7%

Dry Detention Ponds and

Hydrodynamic Structures, 7%

BMP Phase II WIP Implementation

LAPG BMP IMPLEMENTATION

2025 Phase II WIP LAPG BMPs Acres %

Nutrient Management Plan 65,211 44.9

Wet Ponds and Wetlands 18,727 12.9

Dry Extended Detention Ponds 18,399 12.7

Filtering Practices 10,286 7.1

Infiltration 9,721 6.7

Dry Detention Ponds and Hydrodynamic Structures 9,593 6.6

Bioretention/raingardens - A/B soils 4,971 3.4

Impervious Surface Reduction 4,409 3.0

Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 1,877 1.3

Street Cleaning 1,203 0.8

Forest Buffer 448 0.3

Vegetated Open Channels - A/B 242 0.2

Forest Planting 111 0.1

Permeable Pavement 10 0.0

Total 145,208 100

2017 Progress LAPG BMPs Acres %

Wet Ponds and Wetlands 18,289 23.5

Dry Extended Detention Ponds 17,120 22.0

Stormwater Performance Standard-Stormwater Treatment 16,165 20.8

Dry Detention Ponds and Hydrodynamic Structures 13,393 17.2

Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 6,564 8.4

Nutrient Management Plan 2,747 3.5

Infiltration 1,861 2.4

Stormwater Performance Standard-Runoff Reduction 631 0.8

Bioretention/raingardens - A/B soils 405 0.5

Filtering Practices 240 0.3

Bioretention/raingardens - C/D soils 185 0.2

Impervious Surface Reduction 80 0.1

Bioswale 71 0.1

Permeable Pavement 15 0.0

Vegetated Open Channels - C/D soils 7 0.0

Forest Planting 6 0.0

Vegetated Open Channels - A/B 1 0.0

Total 77,780 100

LAPG TOP 5 BMPS - TIME SERIES

BMP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Wet Ponds and Wetlands 15,632 15,952 16,480 16,797 17,544 17,441 18,231 18,142 18,102

Dry Extended Detention Ponds 15,289 15,539 15,820 16,582 17,004 17,281 12,948 12,736 17,120

Stormwater Performance Standard-

Stormwater Treatment 14,706 15,195 15,800 16,029 16,720 16,697 17,461 16,684 16,805

Dry Detention Ponds and

Hydrodynamic Structures 12,033 12,163 12,314 12,400 12,544 12,502 12,948 12,736 12,740

Nutrient Management Plan 8,308 7,771 8,276 8,489 9,876 7,166 5,340 26,413 2,747

TIME SERIES PROJECTION – LAPG BOUNDARY ONLY

R² = 0.9287

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Acr

es

Wet Ponds and Wetlands

R² = 0.781

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Acr

es

Dry Extended Detention Ponds

TIME SERIES PROJECTION – LAPG BOUNDARY ONLY

R² = 0.7724

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Acr

es

Stormwater Performance Standard-Stormwater Treatment

R² = 0.8451

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

Acr

es

Dry Detention Ponds and Hydrodynamic Structures

TIME SERIES PROJECTION – LAPG BOUNDARY ONLY

R² = 0.0324

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Acr

es

Nutrient Management Plan

Other BMPS

• Stormwater Performance – Runoff Reduction

• Infiltration practices

• Filtering Practices

INPUT DECK DISCUSSION

•NEED TO RUN SCENARIOS FOR OCTOBER

MEETING

•LINEAR REGRESSION EXAMPLES

•BEST APPROACH ?

•OTHER IDEAS ?

•ANNUAL BMPS

•APPROACH ?

PHASE III WIP PLANNING NEXT STEPS

AUG. 17 – STAKEHOLDER MEETING #1

SEPT. 15 – INTERIM REPORT DUE (ACTIVITY 1)

SEPT. 21 – STAKEHOLDER MEETING #2

OCT. 26 – STAKEHOLDER MEETING #3

SEPT. - DEC. – REVISE BMP INPUT DECKS (ACTIVITY 2), IDENTIFY PROGRAMMATIC ACTIONS FOR PHASE III WIP IMPLEMENTATION (ACTIVITY 3)

DEC. 15 - FINAL PROJECT REPORT DUE TO DEQ

22

CONTACT INFORMATION

Normand Goulet

Director, Division of Planning and environmental services

Northern virginia regional commission

● ngoulet@novaregion.org

● https://www.novaregion.org/1398/Virginia-Chesapeake-Bay-Phase-III-WIP