Children Ever in Care

Joseph Magruder, MSWTerry V. Shaw, MSW

University of California, BerkeleySchool of Social Welfare

This research is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

Presented Tuesday, August 30, 2005 at the 45th Annual National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics Workshop.

Problem

• What does administrative data tell us about lifetime incidence of child welfare system involvement?

• In California, at least, because statewide administrative data bases have not been operational for 18 years, we can’t estimate lifetime incidence yet for 0-18 year olds. But, preliminary work for ages up to 5 holds promise.

Overview

• Discussion of cohort

• Examination of service incidence history for a sample cohort

• Next Steps

Cohorts

• California’s Administrative Data Base - the Child Welfare Services Case Management System (CWS/CMS) has been operational long enough to allow analysis of lifetime in-home child welfare services and foster care utilization for a cohort of five year old children.

• The cohort includes all children, not just those with child welfare involvement.

Cohort Composition

• Two types of cohort composition:– Birth: Those children who were born in the

state in a specific year, e.g., 1999.– Age: Those children who because a specific

age in a specific year, e.g., became 5 in 2004.

• Both present problems because of:– deaths,– in and out migration, and– inconsistent definitions of ethnicity.

Birth Cohort

• Denominator = Vital Statistics Birth Records

• Consideration of ethnicity based on mother to match birth records

• CWS/CMS birthplace data are incomplete so it is not possible to accurately limit cases in the numerator to children born in the state

Age Cohort

• Denominator = Department of Finance (Census based) Population Projection

• Consideration of ethnicity based on child to match population projections

• Denominator doesn’t include children who have died or moved out of the state, but numerator does

Child Welfare Service Incidence Historyfor Five Year Old California Children

Birth Cohort (by Ethnicity of Mother)

White Hispanic

Asian & Pacific

IslanderAfrican

AmericanAmerican

Indian Missing Total

1999 Births by ethnicity of mother 172,442 249,253 57,046 34,136 2,501 2,695 518,073

At least 1 CWS referral before age 5 27,630 37,928 3,461 11,983 688 9,148 90,838 Incidence/100 - 1999 births 16.0 15.2 6.1 35.1 27.5 17.5

At least 1 substantiated referral before age 5 10,576 12,924 1,179 4,659 353 989 30,680 Incidence/100 - 1999 births 6.1 5.2 2.1 13.6 14.1 5.9

Ever in care before age 5 5,003 5,262 437 2,753 197 65 13,717 Incidence/100 - 1999 births 2.9 2.1 0.8 8.1 7.9 2.6

In care at age 5 965 1,161 61 618 36 0 2,841 Incidence/100 - 1999 births 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.5

% of referred with substantiated referrals 38.3% 34.1% 34.1% 38.9% 51.3% 33.8%% of referred with placement history 18.1% 13.9% 12.6% 23.0% 28.6% 15.1%% with substantiated referrals with placement history 47.3% 40.7% 37.1% 59.1% 55.8% 44.7%% of ever in care in care 19.3% 22.1% 14.0% 22.4% 18.3% 20.7%

Note: If CWS/CMS mother's ethnicity is unknown, child's ethnicity is used.

California CWS InvolvementBefore Five Years of AgeAll Children Born in 1999

Referrals

82.5%

17.5%

No CWS Contact

Referrals

California CWS InvolvementBefore Five Years of AgeAll Children Born in 1999

Referral Outcomes

82.5%

11.6%

5.9%

No CWS Contact

UnsubstantiatedReferral OnlySubstantiatedReferrals

California CWS InvolvementBefore Five Years of AgeAll Children Born in 1999

82.5%

11.6%

3.3% 2.6%

No CWS Contact

UnsubstantiatedReferral OnlySub. Referral, NoRemovalOut-of-HomePlacement

CWS Involvement Before Age 5

64.9%

72.5%

84.0%84.8%

93.9%

82.5%

11.6%

4.0%

10.0% 9.9%

13.4%21.5%

3.3%1.3%

3.1% 3.2%

6.2% 5.6%

2.6%0.8%

2.1% 2.9%7.9% 8.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total(518,073)

Asian & Pacific

Islander(57,046)

Hispanic(249,253)

White(172,442)

AmericanIndian

(2,501)

AfricanAmerican(34,136)

Out-of-HomePlacement

SubstantiatedReferral, NoRemovalUnsubstantiatedReferral Only

No CWS Contact

Next Steps

• During the next several years we well be able to analyze how cohort incidence for successive cohorts of five year olds changes over time, including changes in disproportionality.

• In 13 years, it will be possible to study referral incidence throughout the childhood of the cohort born in 1999.

The End!

Terry V. Shaw – tvshaw@berkeley.eduJoseph Magruder – joemagruder@berkeley.edu

(510) 643 - 2585

Center for Social Services Research Web Pagehttp://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSReports