china da - starter pack - berkeley 2013

7/27/2019 China DA - Starter Pack - Berkeley 2013

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CHINA DA


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1NCA. Uniqueness: China influence is up and US engagement is

down recent trips pale in comparison to policy.Martinez 13(Guillermo I., Columnist, America losing influence throughout Latin

America May 23, 2013, The Sun Sentinel,http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-pri) -mikee

Once upon a time, as many fairy tales start, the United States was the prevailing force

in Latin America .It had a coherent policy for its southern neighbors, and its opinions mattered to those who

governed in the region. DespitePresident Barack Obama's recent tripto Mexico and Costa Rica, and Vice

President Joe Biden's upcoming trip to the region, that is no more . The days when John F. Kennedy created theAlliance for Progress and was a hero to the young throughout the western hemisphere have been gone for more than half acentury. The time when Jimmy Carter pledged to back only those governments that respected human rights and

encouraged that caudillos be ousted is also a historical footnote. True, the world has changed. The attacks ofSeptember 11, 2001 made everyone look to the East; to Iraq, to Afghanistan, to Iran, Syria and other countries in theMiddle East. Israel is still crucial to American foreign policy, more so now that militants are willing to die to killAmericans and Israelis. Latin America also changed when the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chvez was elected. Therising price of oil gave Chvez riches beyond belief and he began sharing it with similar-minded leaders in Cuba,Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Argentina; just to name a few. Colombia once depended greatly on the PlanColombia assistance from the United States to fight the FARC guerrillas and the drug lords that governed much of thecountry. The emphasis on the Plan Colombia since Juan Manuel Santos took office has decreased. Santos also believes innegotiations with the FARC and closer ties to those who govern in Venezuela. Mexico counted on American intelligenceassistance and money to fight the drug cartels until Obama's visit to Enrique Pea Nieto, recently elected president. Thecommunique at the end of the meeting talked about new economic cooperation between the two nations and how togetherthey would fight the drug cartels. Not highlighted was the Mexican-imposed position that the United States agents wouldno longer be welcome in their country and that the cooperation would be respectful of their sovereign rights. Pea Nieto,the candidate of the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) wanted a different approach to the war on drugs; one that

would mitigate the violence that had killed thousands of Mexicans in the last decade. Finally, China has helpedchange the equation.After the fall of the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall, for several years the United Stateswas the only super power. When American presidents spoke, the world listened. Now China offers both achallenge to the United States, as a second super power, and has become analternative economic trading partner for countries throughout the world.Still, it is inconceivable that American media and officials pay so littleattention to the region. Maybe those around President Obama have not told him that Iran has close ties withArgentina, Cuba and Venezuela. Certainly the administration must know Cuba and Venezuela are so close that manycritics of President Nicols Maduro are now saying Cubans are helping to keep him in power. They talk, only part in jest,that there is a new country in the region called Cubazuela the alliance between Cuba's Ral Castro and Maduro'ssupporters is so close. It is true all have heard the main culprit of the drug trade in the world is American and Europeanconsumption. Yet the United States has waged war on the producers and importers, and not on the consumers at home.

Seldom has Latin America been further from American influence. Many of

the leftists' presidents in the region consider the United States their enemy.Others maintain cordial, or even friendly relations with Washington, but arequick to negotiate economic deals with China.The task is not easy, granted. Yet it would

help if the United States and the Obama Administration articulated a policyfor its neighbors in Latin America. They should not be a second thought in America foreign policy.The region deserves better. So does the United States. This country needs to improve those ties or continue to lose statusas a premier world power. This is no fairy tale.
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-prihttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-prihttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-prihttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-prihttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-pri


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B. Link: Engagement is zero-sum Chinas power depends onAmericas neglect.Kreps 13(Sarah E. Kreps & Gustavo A. Flores-Macas are Assistant Professors ofGovernment at Cornell University, No Strings Attached? Evaluating Chinas TradeRelations Abroad, May 17, 2013, http://thediplomat.com/china-power/no-strings-

attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad/)-mikee

To be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partnersinto alignment on foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this

gravitational effect has a sound economic basis. Developing countries in Africa andLatin America are comparatively much more dependent on China than China is on these countries. In a ten year period,for example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic Product. That pattern is even starker in a

country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006.While China certainlyneeds access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries arefar less important to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry

in needs gives China a bargaining advantage that translates into foreign

policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by design or not, the

convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is important on at least twolevels. First, developing countries in Africa andLatin America may be lulled by the prospectof partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicitpolitical agenda, as did the United Statesand Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appearsto be an i llusion. Whether this reaches the level of new colonialism asformer Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referredto it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A

second set of implications deals with the United States. During the same period in which Chinas

trade withAfrica andLatin America and foreign policy convergence have increased, the

United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This

suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which Chinas growing trade

relations make it easier to attract allies in international forums while USinfluence is diminishing. Taken together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the UnitedStates in the developing world. Sincethe September 2001attacks,Washington has dealt withAfrica

and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted its attention

elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercialrelations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as animportant means of projecting influence abroad.

C. Impact:

1. Continued engagement key to growth & CCP stability.Farnsworth 12(Eric Farnsworth is vice-president of the Council of the Americas in

Washington DC and from 1995 to 1998 was senior adviser to the White House specialenvoy for the Americas. Memo to Washington: China's Growing Presence in Latin

America,Americas Quarterly, Vol. 6, No. 1, Winter, 2012,http://www.americasquarterly.org/Farnsworth) -mikee

What is China doing in the Americas?Its a good questionand an increasingly important one forpolicymakers in Washington. According to one U.S. analyst, its about goodwill, good business and strategic position.1Perhaps. But the jury is still out, mostly because Chinas interest in the Western Hemisphere is barely a decade old. Formany years, beyond attempts to wean Latin American and Caribbean nations away from support for Taiwan and efforts to

build Third World solidarity, Chinas footprint in the Americas was light. That has now changed. Since then-PresidentJiang Zemins13-day trip to Latin Americain April 2001 and the subsequent visits ofPresident Hu Jintao in 2004 and 2011, Chinese engagement with the region has exploded.
http://www.americasquarterly.org/Farnsworthhttp://www.americasquarterly.org/Farnsworth


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Today, China is the top trade partner of Brazil and Chile, and the second trade partner of Argentina and Peru. By late2010, Chinese enterprises had invested almost $44 billion in the region, according to Chinas National Development andReform Commission, almost a quarter of which was invested in 2010 alone. Top investment targets included Brazil, butalso Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela. Innovative financing by Chinese entities was often behindthe dealsand in some cases, such as Ecuador and Venezuela, investments took the form of loans secured by guaranteedfuture deliveries of oil. That is a marked change from 2003, the year before Hus first visit, when China invested just $1

billion in all of Latin America. By now the outlines of the story are well known. As partof the dash for economic growth that the Chinese Communist Party believes

will help to maintain its legitimacyan average annual rate of 9.8 percent from 1979 to 2009, including an 8.7 percent growth rate in 2009 when much of the rest of the world faced economic

collapseBeijing is on a global quest to lock in the natural resources that fuel itsgrowth.From Southeast Asia to Africa to Latin America and beyond, China is scouring the globe toinvest in primary commodities.By the end of 2011, more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reservesprovided an impressive war chest from which to purchase the global assets that Chinas leaders believethey need to support economic growthand thus political stabilityfor themedium to longer term. As China faces its own near-term leadershiptransition, efforts to purchase domestic political stability with foreign tradeand investment are likely to intensify. At the same time, Latin American nationsthathave been the primary trade and investment partners with Chinahave also gained handsomely, at leastin the short term, in the sectors that produce primary goods. Longer term questions abound regarding the balance andterms of trade, the nature of the investments that China is making, and the values that are being promoted or underminedby such investments.2 Additionally, nations that are not supplying significant amounts of commodities to China, includingMexico and Central America, view China more as an aggressive competitor than as an economic partner. The costs andbenefits of trade with China are unequally distributed across the Americas.

2. CCP instability leads to nuclear war.Rexing, 5(San, Staff Epoch Times, The CCPs Last Ditch Gamble: Biological andNuclear War, 8-5, http://english.epochtimes.com/ news/5-8-5/30975.html)

What, then, is the gist of this wild, last-ditch gamble? To put it in a few words:A cornered beast is fightingdesperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you dont believe me,read some passages directly from the speeches. 1) We must prepareourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the

surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people will be able to keep theirlosses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S.If, however, the attack fails and triggers anuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its populationwould perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities.

Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sakeof our Party and state and our nations future, regardless of the hardships

we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even ifmore than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything isgone, and forever gone!2) In any event, we, the CCP, will never step downfrom the stage of history! Wed rather have the whole world, or even theentire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage ofhistory!!! Isnt there a nuclear bondage theory? It means that since thenuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will dietogether if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate ourParty is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are finished, China will be finished, and the world will befinished.3) It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure aChinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. Butif history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, wed have to pick the latter, as, forus, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, weare Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Partys life has always been above all else!Since the Partys life is above all else, it would not be surprising if the CCPresorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attemptto extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate


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to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundredmillion Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see theCCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to

wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. Thatis the main theme of the speeches. This theme is murderous and utterly evil. In China we have seenbeggars who coerced people to give them money by threatening to stab themselves with knives or pierce their throats withlong nails. But we have never, until now, seen such a gangster who would use biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons tothreaten the world, that all will die together with him. This bloody confession has confirmed the CCPs nature: that of amonstrous murderer who has killed 80 million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one billion people hostage andgamble with their lives.


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UNIQUENESS


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U Generic

China is increasing its engagement with Latin America theyrewinning the influence battle now.

Ellis 13(R. Evan is associate professor for Hemispheric Defense Studies, China'sNew Backyard: Does Washington realize how deeply Beijing has planted a flag? JUNE6, 2013,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america)

For the past decade, Washington has looked with discomfort at China'sgrowing interest in Latin America. But while Beijing's diplomats bulked upon their Spanish and Portuguese, most U.S. policymakers slept soundly,confident that the UnitedStates still held a dominant position in the minds of its southern neighbors. In April 2005, the U.S. House ofRepresentatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere held a hearing on China's influence in the hemisphere andconcluded that the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere was much stronger than China's and, moreover, that Beijing's

economic engagement in the region did not present a security threat. But that was 2005. In late May of this year,when

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden went to Latin Americafor a three-day, three-country tour, Beijingwas hot on his heels. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Trinidad and Tobago just days after Biden left:Whereas Trinidad and Tobago's prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, characterized her discussions with Biden as "attimes brutal," Xi's stop in Trinidad and Tobago included the unveiling of a children's hospital funded with $150 million

from the Chinese government, discussion of energy projects, and meetings with seven Caribbean heads of state. Xi'sitinerary took him toCosta Rica and Mexicoon June 4 to 6, but his shadow followed Biden all the way toBrazil. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden referred to a new "strategic partnership" between the United States and Brazil, yet hiswords' impact was undercut by the strategic partnership that Brazil has had with China since 1993 and the much-publicized fact that China overtook the United States as Brazil's largest trading partner in 2009 (trade between China andBrazil exceeded $75 billion in 2012). It's not an accident that Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff made a state visit to

China in April 2011, prior to paying one to the United States. Make no mistake: China is now a

presence in the region . Xi's trip to Trinidad and Tobago is only the second visit by a Chinese president tothe Caribbean -- his predecessor, Hu Jintao, visited communist Cuba in November 2008 -- but China and the Caribbean'seconomic and political ties have been growing rapidly. On this trip, Xi promised more than $3 billion in loans to 10

Caribbean countries and Costa Rica. Xi's choice of three destinations near the United States, followed by a "shirt-sleeves"summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on June 7 and 8 at the Sunnylands resort in California, sends a subtle message

that the new Chinese leadership seeks to engage the United States globally asan equal -- without the deference shown in the past to the United States incountries close to its borders.Ironically, it's the Latin American country closestto the United States where Xi might be able to make up the most ground.Mexican PresidentEnrique Pea Nieto's engagement with the Chinese president,both at the April summit in Boao, China, and this week in Mexico City, allow him to differentiatehimselffrom his pro-U.S. predecessor, Felipe Caldern. Similarly, Mexico's role informing the PacificAlliance, a new subregional organization built around a group of four pro-market,pro-trade countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) allows Mexico to reassert aleadership role in the Americas, relatively independent of the United States. The challenges arising from China's global engagement should not, however, be confused with the struggle between the

United States and the Soviet Union that characterized the Cold War, in which each side actively promoted different,competing concepts for a global order. China does not seek to impose a new ideology on the world, yet themercantilist way in which it promotes its economic development,combined withits lack of commitment to international norms that it didn't create, makes it more difficult for theUnited States to conduct business and pursue policy goals in Latin Americaand other parts of the world.Consider China's ties with the eight countries that make up the leftistBolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA). Since 2007, China has loaned $50 billion to Ecuador and Venezuela, thealliance's two largest countries, giving them the financial wherewithal to continue sustaining anti-U.S. policies at homeand to advance their cause in the region -- from funding oil alliance Petrocaribe, to setting up teleSUR and Banco del Sur,

to sending suitcases of cash to politicians in Argentina. And the willingness of Chinese companies
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to invest in Venezuelaand Ecuador has made it easier for those countries'regimes to nationalize industries and displace undesired Westerncorporations.China's indifference to those countries' political systems has cleared the way for their devolution toless democratic practices, from the legal actions taken against the leadership of El Universo and other Ecuadorean media,to forcing RCTV off the air in Venezuela and persecuting Venezuelan opponents from Manuel Rosales (now in exile) to

former armed forces head Ral Baduel (now incarcerated). China's no-strings-attachedinvestments enable the regimes to thumb their noses at Western institutions and prevailing international norms regarding respect for contracts, freedom of expression, democracy, and human rights.

Chinas influence and engagement increasing now, displacingthe US.Costa Rica News, 6/12(China Rooted in Latin America 2013,http://thecostaricanews.com/china-rooted-in-latin-america/15642)-mikee

China concluded its last Made in China contract signing sweep across theLatin Americas last week. President Xi Jinping, during his visit last week to Mexico,Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago came, signed at least two dozen agreements furtherconsolidating territory the hemisphere. With Brazil, Mexico and Chile as its main customers, CostaRicas premiering stadium and trade agreement made by the Chinese, 33% of the oil from Ecuador endorsed as part

payment of its investment in infrastructure and Colombia flirting to get an agreement free trade, the Chinas

influence is increasingly in the daily life in Latin America . Nicaragua is ready to signwith Chinese entrepreneurs in trade for large portion of its territory and its coasts on two oceans to build the secondhemisphere canal. A statement from the presidency of Nicaragua confirmed that the National Assembly is drafting aSpecial Law Initiative for the Development of Infrastructure and Transport Nicaraguan Canal, Free Trade Zones andInfrastructure Associates. According to information provided by the Assembly, the initiative, which aims to start a

feasibility study by a company based in Hong Kong, would be approved this week. China has become a

strong partner in the region, displacing the United States in several

countries. China is the main destination for Brazilian exports andis a vital partner for the economy of Peru. Ecuadorand most recently Costa Rica have become increasingly dependenent on Chinas economic. Colombia sells nearly 10,000million dollars and buys about 3,500 million, while Mexico sells nearly 10 times what it buys: 56.936 million dollars,compared to 5.721 million dollars, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI ),

2012. The Chinese economys appetite for commodities, especially mining andagriculture, is the main reason the nation has to deepened trade relations

with Latin American countries, with or without agreements. With a trade balancesurplus of 6 billion per year Chinese entrepreneurs have been opened stores in the Colombian capital. Xi Jinping has over1.3 billion mouths to feed and 950 million people to keep working, according to figures from the National Bureau of

Statistics of China.With that many people China has no choice but to seek toexpand trade ties with Latin America.

China influence rising in Latin America.Xiaoxia, 5/6(Wang, ECONOMIC OBSERVER/Worldcrunch, In America'sBackyard: China's Rising Influence In Latin America, May 5, 2013,http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/)-mikee

Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding theirfootprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure asteady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for Asia, for the firsttime a Latin American sub-forum was createdthat included the participation of several headsof state from the region. Since 2011, China has overtaken the Netherlands tobecome Latin
http://thecostaricanews.com/china-rooted-in-latin-america/15642http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/http://thecostaricanews.com/china-rooted-in-latin-america/15642


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Americas second biggest investorbehind the United States. China has signed a seriesof large cooperation agreements with Latin American countries in suchfields as finance, resources and energy. According to the latest statistics of the GeneralAdministration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to atotal of$261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%.This trend risks undermining theposition of the United States as Latin Americas single dominant trading

partner. In 2011, the U.S.-Latin American trade volume was $351 billion. Some prominent Chinese have condemnedthe United States' high-profile Return to Asia strategy, with its intention of containing China's front door. Sh ouldnt theUnited States, which put forward the Monroe Doctrine two centuries ago, also question how China is quietly arriving inAmericas backyard?


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U Mexico

A. Uniqueness: China is stepping up its engagement with Mexicoand are on the verge of forming a cooperative and strategic

alliance.Shahani, 6/5(Arjan, Chinese President Xi Jinpings Visit to Mexico, AQ, 2013,http://www.americasquarterly.org/chinese-president-xi-jinping-visit-to-mexico) -mikee

Slowly but surely, from a diplomatic standpoint, Mexico is taking steps to reestablishitselfas an outspoken, independent and active player, and is engaging emerging andestablished world powersbeyond its neighbor to the North. In April, Pea Nietosparticipation inthe conference of the Boao Forum For Asiaa China-based forumsimilar to theWorld Economic Forumand Chinese President Xi Jinpingsvisit to Mexicothis week are aclear example of Mexicos global pivot. President Xis visit, foreshadows a stronger bilateralcommercial and diplomatic relationship. Fox and Caldern did very little to maintain the strategic alliance that the PRIhad built with China, and Caldern angered the Chinese government in 2011 when he received the Dalai Lama at the

presidential residence. But now, officials from the federal government and

representatives from the private sectorinvolved in President Xis visit are predictingthe launch of a strategic, integral and functional alliance between China andMexico. They are not exaggerating: as agreements reached during the visitshow, this is much more than Xi making a courtesy call. Amapola Grijalva, vice presidentof the Mexico-China Chamber of Commerce, told journalist Daro Celis in a June 3 radio interview that agreementsreached between the two delegations will help narrow the commercial balance gap between the countries, will open up ahuge market for Mexican exporters, and will allow China to provide financing for important heavy infrastructure projectsin the near future. Grijalva estimates that during Peas administration, up to $81 billion coming from China could go

into financing new industrial naval port complexes, airports, telecom projects, and railway transportation systems.Ajoint declaration signed and issued by Pea Nieto and Xi on June 4summarizes the amount of workalready invested in the renewed Mexico-China relationship. The two leaders signedmemorandums of understanding to formally establish cooperation in energy, mining,emerging industries, infrastructure, private sector collaboration, university

alliances, trade, banking, and even the oil industry. In addition, it was announced thatsanitary measures have been met to reopen the Chinese market to pork from Mexico, and an agreement was reached toallow all forms of tequila into China. Additionally, to promote tourism in both countries, Pea Nieto and Xi expressedtheir mutual interest in expanding international flights connecting Mexico and China and in establishing a workingrelationship between their tourism ministries. In the political arena, Pea Nieto took the opportunity to amend Caldernsdiplomatic gaffe by ratifying the One China principle. Pea Nieto stated that it is Mexicos position that both Taiwan andthe Tibet are part of Chinese territory and Tibetan affairs are an internal issue for China. In the statement, both partiesdeclared that given the improvement of diverse mechanisms in the bilateral cooperation, the conditions are such thatMexico-China relations can be elevated to a new level of benefit to both nations. They also established a calendar ofworking visits from high-level government officials to implement the agreements and scheduled future meetings during

upcoming international forums including the UN, APEC and the G20. As President Xis visit shows, the comingyears are certain to bring Mexico and China diplomatically closerand to catalyzeeconomic growth, trade and development in a mutually beneficial waywhile breaking Mexicos tradedependency on the U.S. market.
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U Venezuela

A. Uniqueness: The lack of US attention is increasing Chinasinfluence Venezuela is a key country for their expanding

power.Menendez 13(Fernando is an economist and principal of The Cordoba GroupChina is moving in next-door to the U.S. 10 May 2013http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america)

When concerns about a rising China are broached they are usually focusedaround that nations increasing economic, financial and military power inAsia. Another regionundergoing significant political and economic development, once considered the backyards of the United States, is less

often cited. Latin America, however, is fast becoming a growing nub on Chinasradar as a global power. U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East has ledarguably to a decline in American power in Latin America and elsewhere.Economically, as Americas influence wanesin the southern hemisphere Chinas hasgrown. The shift can be seen in levels of loans, foreign direct investment and trade.Fueling A Commodities Boom In its quest to fuel its growing economy, Chinas demand for commodities has generated aboom for the producer nations. Soybeans from Argentina, copper from Chile and Peru, tin from Bolivia, and oil and ironore from Brazil have helped fuel these economies for the last decade, especially during the financial meltdown of 2008when traditional markets were contracting and stagnating. The China Development Bank (CDB) and Sinopec (ChinaPetroleum Company), for example, signed a 2009 agreement with Petrobras, Brazils state-owned oil company, for $10billion in return for 200,000 barrels a day of crude oil for ten years. With the discovery of one of the worlds largestoffshore oilfields, Brazil will surely become a major oil supplier for China. Today China owns stakes in oilfields in Ecuadorand has major investments in copper projects in Peru. By some reports China accounts for over $11 billion of Perus $41

billion invested in energy and minerals. China also loaned Venezuela a staggering $40billion in exchange for oil deliveries to fuel its growing economy.In MichaelForsythe and Henry Sandersons new book, Chinas Superbank, the authors describe how Chen Yuan, thechairman of the CDB, handedHugo Chvez a600-pagebook filled with recommendationsfor building, running, and managing roads, ports, and railroads.Forsythe andSanderson argue that Chinas policy of paying generous amounts of cash for its raw materials and propping up local

autocrats gives a whole new meaning to the term too big to fail.As the largest single overseasinvestor in Venezuela, China tied the money to contracts with Chinese firms. China is also fast becoming an alternative source of development funding. Its ability to lend long-term and the largeamounts involved makes it an important and different player. In terms of infrastructure development, the ChinaDevelopment Bank has made substantive loans to develop roads, ports, railroads and other infrastructure that will secureit access to continuing flows of raw materials. According to research conducted by the Financial Times, the ChinaDevelopment Bank (CDB) has displaced the World Bank as the worlds largest development bank, lending billions aroundthe world in pursuit of Chinas interests.

China is increasing engagement in Venezuela but its on thebrink.Myers 13(Margaret, Director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-

American Dialogue. Graduate work at The George Washington University. Studied US-

China relations at the Johns Hopkins University. The Future of China-VenezuelaRelations, Saturday, March 30, 2013, Inter-American Dialogue,http://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.html)-mikee

China has became a critical economic partner for Venezuela over the past

decade . By means of the "China-Venezuela Joint Fund" and other

mechanisms, China's policy banks have offered more in loans to Venezuela
http://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.htmlhttp://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.htmlhttp://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.htmlhttp://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.html


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than to any other country. But what is the likelihood of continued high-level,bilateral cooperation in a post-Chvez political environment? Tsinghua UniversitysMatt Ferchen, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher, Sun Hongbo, and Venezuelan journalist, Andrs RojasJimnez, debated the future of China-Venezuela relations at the Inter-American Dialogue on March 22nd. Sun

Hongbo opened with an optimistic view of the China-Venezuela

relationship. Economic complementarity, he suggested, will ensure

cooperatio n between the two nations for the foreseeable future. With respect toChinas $40-$50 billion in loans to Venezuela, Sun also foresees little risk, noting that Chinas loan contracts have

sufficient precautions built in. According to Matt Ferchen, however, the strength of the China-

Venezuela strategic partnership will likely be tested in the coming years .China is unprepared for the possibility of significant political and economic instability in Venezuela, he added, and is

fearful of losing its preferred status in a post-Chvez government. Ferchen agreed that economiccomplementarity exists between China and Venezuela, and will play a role infuture engagement, but suggested that the extent of future cooperation willdepend on economic and political developments in Venezuela. Andrs Rojas Jimnezexplained that Chinas loans have done little to strengthen Venezuelas economy. Following the creation of the China-Venezuela Joint Fund, oil exports to China jumped from 95,000 bpd in 2007 to 460,000 bpd in 2012. But Venezuelasexternal debt also increased considerably. In 2012, Chinese loans accounted for 25 percent of Venezuelas total externaldebt. Venezuela is also increasingly dependent upon oil exports for economic growth; exports of non-traditional goods are

at the same levels as a decade ago. PdVSA, furthermore, has consistently fallen short of the eventual 800,000 bpdpromised to China. Chinese entities recently criticized Venezuela for delays on certain projects, including some in theOrinoco. Panelists insisted that however relations progress, there is a need for greater transparency and accountability in

financing agreements and loan disbursement. All agreed that China and Venezuela will be taking acloser look at the nature of bilateral relations in the coming months.


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U Cuba

A. US engagement in Cuba is down, allowing China to expand.Rowe, 6/15(David, an attorney in Jamaica and Florida and an adjunct law professorat the University of Miami, Is it Time For President Obama to Visit the Caribbean?2013, http://www.caribjournal.com/2013/06/15/op-ed-is-it-time-for-president-obama-to-visit-the-caribbean/)-mikee

DIFFERENT US PRESIDENTS have had different attitudes to the Caribbean, from President Ronald Reagan, who made ahigh-profile visit to Jamaica (and ordered the invasion of Grenada to) to Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both of

whom maintain special relationships with Haiti. But President Barack Obamas attitude to the

Caribbean has been characterized largely by disengagement . The biggest

Caribbean issue for Obama seems to have beenhis repeated pledge to close the US militaryprison at Guantanamo Bay, Cubawhere foreign-born terrorism suspects are currently detained. In April of2009, Obama traveled to Trinidad and Tobago for the Fifth Summit of the Americas, pointingto mutual respect between the United States and the Caribbean, and launching the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative.

The President also spoke about Cuba.Since then, however, US engagement

with the Caribbean seems to have lessened as other powers likethe United Kingdomand China have stepped up their presence . Four years after the Fifth Summit, US Vice PresidentJoe Biden arrived in Port of Spain to discuss regional security and energy. But Obama was conspicuous by his absence,particularly in light of the fact that Chinas President, Xi Jinping, actually visited the country just days after Bidensdeparture. The question is, why hasnt Obama visited the Caribbean on an official basis, other than a stop at anOrganization of American States summit? There are a host of issues on which he could focus from Caribbean deporteesto Caribbean crime to Caribbean debt and it seems that it is time to act.


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LINKS


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L Generic

Chinas overall engagement & influence is growing because theUS is absent. The plans economic focus competes with China.

Romero & Barrionuevo 9(Simon & Alexei, Deals Help China Expand Sway inLatin America,April 16, 2009,http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html)-mikee

CARACAS, Venezuela As Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships inLatin America, China is stepping in vigorously, offering countries across theregion large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowingeconomies, a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit. Inrecent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador atleast $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese currencyand lend Brazils national oil company $10 billion. The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for

years to come. Chinas trade with Latin America has grown quickly this decade,making it the regions second largest trading partner after the United States.

But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper engagement withLatin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting toaddress the erosion of Washingtons influence in the hemisphere . This ishow the balance of power shifts quietly during times of crisis , said David Rothkopf, aformer Commerce Department official in the Clinton administration. The loans are an example of thecheckbook power in the world moving to new places, with the Chinese

becoming more active.Mr. Obama will meet with leaders from the regionthis weekend. They will discuss the economic crisis, including a plan toreplenish the Inter-American Development Bank, a Washington-based pillarof cloutthat has suffered losses from the financial crisis. Leadersat the summit meeting are alsoexpected to push Mr. Obama to further loosen the United States policytoward Cuba. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin

America asit pursues not only long-term access to commodities like soybeans and iron ore, but also analternative to investing in United States Treasury notes. One of Chinas new deals inLatin America, the $10 billion arrangement with Argentina, would allow Argentina reliable access to Chinese currency tohelp pay for imports from China. It may also help lead the way to Chinas currency to eventually be used as an alternatereserve currency. The deal follows similar ones China has struck with countries like South Korea, Indonesia and Belarus.As the financial crisis began to whipsaw international markets last year, the Federal Reserve made its own currencyarrangements with central banks around the world, allocating $30 billion each to Brazil and Mexico. (Brazil has opted notto tap it for now.) But smaller economies in the region, including Argentina, which has been trying to dispel doubts aboutits ability to meet its international debt payments, were left out of those agreements. Details of the Chinese deal withArgentina are still being ironed out, but an official at Argentinas central bank said it would allow Argentina to avoid usingscarce dollars for all its international transactions. The takeover of billions of dollars in private pension funds, amongother moves, led Argentines to pull the equivalent of nearly $23 billion, much of it in dollars, out of the country last year.

Dante Sica, the lead economist at Abeceb, a consulting firm in Buenos Aires, said the Chinese overtures in

the region were made possible by the lackof attention that the United

States showed to Latin Americaduring the entire Bush administration.China is also

seizing opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders over whichthe United States holds some sway, like the Inter-American Development Bank, are pushingup against their limits. Just one of Chinas planned loans, the $10 billion for Brazils national oil company, isalmost as much as the $11.2 billion in all approved financing by the Inter-American Bank in 2008. Brazil is expected to usethe loan for offshore exploration, while agreeing to export as much as 100,000 barrels of oil a day to China, according tothe oil company. The Inter-American bank, in which the United States has de facto veto power in some matters, is tryingto triple its capital and increase lending to $18 billion this year. But the replenishment involves delicate negotiationsamong member nations, made all the more difficult after the bank lost almost $1 billion last year. China will also have a

role in these talks, having become a member of the bank this year. China has also pushed into LatinAmerican countries where the United States has negligible influence, like


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Venezuela. In February, Chinas vice president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Caracas to meet with President HugoChvez. The two men announced that a Chinese-backed development fund based here would grow to $12 billion from $6billion, giving Venezuela access to hard currency while agreeing to increase oil shipments to China to one million barrels aday from a level of about 380,000 barrels. Mr. Chvezs government contends the Chinese aid differs from othermultilateral loans because it comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund hasgenerated criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuelas sovereignty.The fund is a swindle tothe nation, said LuisDaz, a lawmaker who claims that China locked in low prices for the oil Venezuela is using asrepayment. Despite forging ties to Venezuela and extending loans to other nations that have chafed at Washingtons clout,

Beijing has bolstered its presence without bombast, perhaps out of an awareness that its relationship with the UnitedStates is still of paramount importance. But this deference may not last. This is China playing the longgame,said Gregory Chin, a political scientist at York University in Toronto. If this ultimatelytranslates into political influence, then that is how the game is played.

US non-engagement is fueling Chinas influence, but itsreversible.Mack 12(Congressman Connie Mack, Ask The Experts: China's Global Rise DoesChina represent an economic and political threat to the U.S. in the WesternHemisphere? January 11, 2012, http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/3254)-mikee

Chinas economic expansion is rapidly filling spaces vacated and ignored by

the United States . In the Western Hemisphere, the lack of a coherent U.S. foreign

policy has left the door wide openfor a variety of actors. China hasnt hesitated. While the U.S.

waited five years to pass free-trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, China has been workingwith Colombia ondeveloping a coast-to-coast railroadas an alternative to the Panama Canal. While theU.S. spends four years dithering over the Keystone XL pipeline, a slam-dunk energy project with another hemispheric

allyCanadaChina hasmade preparations to buy Canadian oil through new pipelines and investedheavily in national oil companies inBrazil andVenezuela. China has invested inPerus mining, oil, wood, fishing, and tourism sectors. Chinese groups have signed agreements in Brazil andArgentina to develop millions of acres of farmland to boost its food security. Chinas trade with LatinAmerica has grown by double digits annually since 2006, while U.S. direct

investment has dropped.China is an economic and political threat and has made significant gainsbut it isnot too late. The Barack Obamaadministrations lack of leadership with regard to LatinAmerica doesnt mean the U.S. must resign itself to a Chinese-centrichemisphere. Despite its economic might and influence, China doesnt enjoy the cultural andlogistical connections with Latin America that the U.S. takes for granted. Thepeoples of our two regions share values like freedom of speech, democracy and the hope for a safe and secure environmentin which our children can prosper. Connections like these, with neighbors near our borders, should give the U.S. an

unbeatable advantage. Its time the Obama team puts forth a foreign policy that takesLatin America seriously or steps aside before its too late .

The plan crowds out Chinese influence market influence is keyJohnson 5(Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the Douglas and

Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, Balancing China's Growing Influence inLatin America, October 24, 2005,http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america)

Today, another communist state-the People's Republic of China (PRC)-is seeking trade, diplomatic,

and military ties in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is rich in natural resources anddeveloping markets for manufactured goods and even arms. China does not currently pose a direct
http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/3254http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/3254


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military threat in Latin America and has steadily embraced market

concepts, but it represents serious competition that could dilute U.S.

influence. Washingtoncould ignore thisintrusion or attempt to contain it. Ignoring it

leaves a vacuum for China to fill,while trying to contain it runs against America's own free market

ideals. Instead, the United States can best look after its hemispheric interests and moderate

China's presence by: Consolidating trade relations with Latin Americaand

removing protectionist U.S. trade barriers, Emphasizing comprehensive relationshipsasopposed to narrow-interest diplomacy such as counternarcotics, Minimizing unproductiverestrictionson assistance to U.S. neighbors, and Pressing harder fordemocratic and economicreforms, prioritizing support for these purposes, and reenergizing public diplomacy. China's Interest in theAmericas China is the world's oldest continuous civilization with more than 3,500 years of written history. Its power hasrisen and declined, most notably in the mid-1800s, when the ruling Qing Dynasty crumbled, inviting rebellion and foreignintervention. At the end of World War II, the Nationalist government, weakened by a decade of war against Japan andwracked by corruption and incompetence, fought a civil war against the Chinese Communist Party and was defeated. By1950, communist leaders like Mao Zedong believed their authoritarianism would return China to glory, a belief thatexpired after 30 million people starved to death in state-induced famines in the early 1960s and another 10 millionperished in fanatical ideological campaigns. In December 1978, after several "great leaps" backward, Communist Partyleader Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms that have steadily transformed the PRC into a remarkable hybrid-a"socialist market economy"-in essence, a communist state that uses market-based pricing principles. Feeding the Dragon.

Twenty-five years into this experiment, China has the world's sixth-largest economy, the third-largest defense budgetaccording to some estimates, and the largest national population (1.3 billion people). According to the World Bank, itsgross domestic product of $1.6 trillion is growing about 9 percent per year. China needs resources to feed its rapidlyexpanding economy, but it does not have sufficient oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper, or iron to satisfy its energy andmanufacturing needs. Furthermore, it needs trade partners to buy its electronics, apparel, toys, and footwear. Whilecommunist China is embracing market concepts, it still has a non-market economy in which a disciplined totalitarianparty retains full authority (through the central government) over non-state investment, import, export, and financialdecisions. China's neighbors are competing for many of the same world markets, as are Europe and the United States.Latin America is a particularly promising prospect. It is relatively unindustrialized and has an abundance of raw materials.Moreover, authoritarian leaders and/or corrupt oligarchies control a number of governments. Signing purchaseagreements with them is much easier than dealing with the panoply of private corporations found in more democratic

countries. Challenging the United States. China's main rival for globalpreeminence is the United States. China sees the United States as preventingTaiwan's reunification with the mainland and thwarting Beijing's rise as apower. Previously, China was isolated, but now plays key roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires to do so elsewhere.Besides status as a nuclear nation, it is a member of the U.N. Security Council, the World Trade Organization, the Group

of 77 developing nations, and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. It also holds observer status in the

Organization of American States.While China has become the second-largest U.S. tradepartner after Canada, it challenges U.S. influence wherever it can . In fact, it willsoon have more attack submarines than the United States, with the addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs and newdiesel-electric vessels equipped with technology that will allow them to run quieter than nuclear submarines.[1] Accordingto former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing James Lilly, "[T]he facts are that [the Chinese] run massive intelligence operationsagainst us, they make open statements against us, their high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us."Chinese military white papers promote power projection and describe U.S. policies as "hegemonism and power

politics."[2] In the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese are taking advantage offailures of half-hearted market reforms and Washington's unwillingness topursue neighborhood relations with much enthusiasm. National Defense Universityprofessor Cynthia A. Watson notes, "[T]he 1990s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free markets led torampant corruption and unfulfilled expectations in Latin America while Washington became the world's superpowerrather than a partner for the region."[3]


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L Cuba

Cuba is key to Chinas development strategy theyre steppingup their engagement now.

Hearn 9(Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at theUniversity of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. Chinas Relations with Mexicoand Cuba: A Study of Contrasts,Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009,

www.pacificrim.usfca.edu)-mikee

China and Cuba: Reordering the Local China is Cubas second largest trading partner afterVenezuela,with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral trade reported for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is morevaluable to Cuba than to China, though this could change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations

in Cuba expand. Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin Americas New Left, Cuba isa unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China,

whose pursuit of Latin American natural resources is at least as voraciousas that of the United States, cooperation with Cuba, strongly supported by Ral Castro,decreases the danger of being perceived in the region as an external

potentially imperialisticthreat to economic sovereignty. In the wake of theSoviet collapse, China has become an important commercial and politicalpartner for Cuba, though as Mao Xianglin of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences notes, Chinese officials arenot interested in replicating the Soviet experience: I think we have to recognize that although bartering with Venezuelaand other countriesfor example doctors for oilis of great value to Cuba, it is not enough. There will never be a return tothe Soviet model, and nor would this be a good idea. The Soviets essentially gave resources to Cuba for political reasons,

but this is not sustainable and it creates a dependency. Using Chinese expertise Cuba could cometo produce electronic goods for sale to Latin America, but at the same timecould also open its domestic market very gradually. I think both will happen (interview,December 14, 2007).When Hu Jintao visited Cuba in November 2008, he donated $8 million to assist Cubas hurricanerelief efforts, offered a $70 million credit for modernizing Cubas hospitals, and proposed 37 new projects for Chineseinvestment on the island. He also extended the deadline for the repayment of a $7 million credit granted in 1998 anddeferred until 2018 the payment of Cubas trade imbalance with China accumulated prior to 1995. In the area ofeducation, Hu affirmed that between 2006 and 2011, Cuba will have trained 5,000 Chinese students in medicine, tourism,

and Spanish.Among Chinese economic activities in Cuba are sales to state-runtransport sector, nickel extraction, oil exploration, and industrialmanufacturing. Local sources report that Chinese electronics manufacturers have built a three-story productionfacility in Havana to compile small appliances for sale to the Cuban and Latin American markets, an objective supportedby Chinese investment in Cubas transport and telecommunications infrastructure. This initiative is also supported byRal Castros April 2008 lifting of restrictions on the domestic sale of televisions, VCRs, mobile phones, computers, and

electronic appliances. This has legalized the sale of products that were alreadywidely in circulation through informal channels, effectively formalizing,expanding, and regulating a commercial sector with enormous growthpotential between Cuba and China, where most of these products originate.

Increased engagement with Cuba crowds out China, which they

perceive as critical to foreign policy goals.Perez 10(JD Yale Law School 2010 David America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward:

A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department Harvard Latino Law Reviewlexis)

The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has alsogiven China the opportunity to step in as a major player,both economically andpolitically, in regions all around the world, but particularly in Latin America. The Chinesegovernment has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin


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America, where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner, with an annual trade growth of 30% since2001. n115American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countriesto adopt a "Pacific view," whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by

America's absence. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile, China quickly displaced the UnitedStates as that country's largest export market. China also [*224] recently displaced the U.S. as Brazil's biggest tradingpartner. n117 In 2000, trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion, but in 2007, that number hadincreased to $ 102 billion, and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. n118 Even despite the current financial

crisis, trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. China's interest inLatin America isalsobased on its increasingly assertive global politicalagenda.In 2007, Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, a move heavily courted by Chineseofficials. In 2008, President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement

in 2010. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin Americanrelationsto coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. It charts China's growingrelationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation inscientific and technological research, cross-cultural educational exchanges,as well as political and economic exchanges.n120As China's role in Latin

America increases, American clout correspondingly decreases in terms ofrelative power.To be sure, the U.S. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come, butwill increasingly have to make room for a new player. Given this diminishing economic position,

Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives thatshore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives anddisincentives, such as bilateral trade agreements. (7B) China's Strategic Interest in CubaChina's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela, China is Cuba'ssecond-largest trading partner with $ 2.3 billion worth of goods exchanged.n121 In fact, China purchases over 400,000 tons of Cuban sugar, as well as half its annual output of nickel, which is Cuba'stop export. n122 In 2008, on a visit to Cuba, Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of

Cuba's debt payments, but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. n123 Moreover, as longas Taiwan is a[*225] thorny issue for U.S.-Sino relations, China will have astake in Cuba. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions forthe island known to everyone; the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington.Anincreased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing tolater leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan

policy.


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L Cuba Embargo

Lifting the embargo stops Chinese influence.Berner 13(Thomas, freelance writer and retired journalism professor. End theEmbargo on Cuba, The Spectator, 3.22.2013,http://rtberner.blogspot.com/2013/03/end-embargo-on-cuba.html)-mikee

The death of Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, was a blow to hiscountry, but it may have been a bigger one to the people of Cuba . Chavez was thepatron saint of Cuba, providing, among other things, subsidized oil to a country lacking the means to pay full freight. I wasin Cuba when Chavez died and can attest that the country was in a state of shock. People were wondering if Chavezs

successor would be as generous as Chavez. Instead of letting the Cubans fret, the UnitedStates should seize this opportunity to befriend them by ending our

embargo. China is another influential country in Cuba and I can see that

influence growing. Given that we once were ready to go to war over Soviet missiles in Cuba,why

should now stand by and let China bunk 90 miles from our country?EmbraceCuba now.

Lifting the embargo stops Chinese trade advantage.FFM 12(Free Free Markets, Cuban Embargo and China, September 22, 2012,http://www.freeourfreemarkets.org/2012/09/cuban-embargo-and-china.html) -mikee

"In a separate local television interview, Mr. Ryan also explained how he had come to change his mind and since 2007 hassupported the embargo.", Ryan Criticizes Obamas Cuba Policy and Explains His Shift on the Issue, New York Times,

September 22, 2012 Sometimes we conduct our foreign policy like it is still 1980. Iunderstand the currentObama administration alsosupports the continued enforcement of theembargo. Both Mr. Obamaand Mr. Ryan are wrong. Who have we hurt with such a policy? Certainly notthe Castro's. We hurt the ordinary citizen of Cuba who are not enemies. Further, at the same time we areincreasing the presence of the United States in the Pacific rim much to the

dismay of China. If I was in a leadership position in China I would quietlytell the President that I am not happy with the United States flexing itsmuscles so close to China's borders and, oh by the way, we have decided to

increase trade with Cuba. If we don't start supporting Cuba more, China

will . The Cuban people are our friends as are the people of Haiti.
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L Cuba Embargo (Steel)

a. Lifting the embargo decks Chinese Steel.Cuba Standard, 10(U.S. steel group uses embargo to hammer China, May 14th,2010http://www.cubastandard.com/2010/05/14/u-s-steel-group-uses-embargo-to-hammer-china/)

In written testimony during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing Thursday, a U.S. steel trade groupdenounced Chinese steel imports containing Cuban nickel, the Export Law Blog firstreported. At the same time, the group said the embargo puts U.S. stainless steel companiesat a competitive disadvantage.China is the largest consumer of Cubannickel.Nickel is a crucial ingredient in stainless steel. Specialty Steel Industry of North America (SSINA) encouragedstricter enforcement of the U.S. regulations on trade with Cuba, particularly with respect to China, the Washington-based

group said in a press release. However, written testimony by the SSINA chairman also says that the embargohurts U.S. stainless steel companies. The U.S. embargo places the domesticspecialty metals industry at a distinct competitive disadvantage by allowing

one of its biggest foreign competitors an opportunity to avail itself of[Cuba's] nickel reserves, while simultaneously denying the U.S. industry thesame access, said SSINA Chairman Sunil Widge in his testimony. As long as the embargo remains U.S. law, itmust be enforced, otherwise U.S. stainless steel producers and producers of other nickel-bearing metals will remaindisadvantaged by the failure to apply the embargo. Citing section 515.204 of the Cuban assets control regulations, thegroup argues that the Treasury Departments Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) can force importers to certify theirstainless steel products dont include Cuban nickel. Three years ago, the Bush Administration announced efforts to crackdown on imports of stainless steel products containing Cuban nickel. However, the only publicized recent nickel-relatedenforcement case involved the U.S. subsidiary of a Chinese company that directly trades nickel. In 2008, OFAC finedMinxia Non-Ferrous Metals. The latest instance in which Japanese and European exporters agreed to being screened forCuban nickel by the United States was in the early 1980s, according to Export Law Blog author Clif Burns. Even if theywere willing to cooperate, Chinese manufacturers would have a hard time truly certifying their products dont include anyCuban nickel, Burns argues. Notwithstanding SSINAs huffing and puffing about the moral imperative behind the Cubaembargo, the trade groups real interest has little to do with U.S. foreign policy and everything to do with Chinese

competition, Burns writes in his blog. After all, the alleged competitive disadvantage of U.S.

producerswho cant buy Cuban nickel could be solved tomorrow by liftingthe embargo, something SSINAs doesnt even whisper as a possible solution to its issues.

b. The steel industry is the life-blood of their economy.SSINA, 8(A voluntary trade association representing virtually all the producers ofspecialty steel in North America, Specialty Steel industry of North America, October2008, Chinas Specialty Steel Subsidies: Massive, Pervasive, and Illegal, SSINA,http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/20081014_report.pdf)

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIESIN CHINASSPECIALTY STEEL SECTOR TO BE PILLAR INDUSTRIES

THATARE THE LIFE-BLOOD OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY While China has

taken deliberate steps since the late 1970s to reform Chinas economy, such as allowing certain foreign investment into thecountry and allowing SOEs a small degree of autonomy, a fundamental element in Chinasdriveto become a leading international economic power has been the Chinesegovernments extensive industrial policies that direct and manage thecountrys economic and industrial development by defining whichindustries, enterprises, and products should be targeted for preferentialsupport and controlled by the government.9 The overarching objective ofChinas industrial policies has been to foster the growth ofcertainindustrialsectors that the Chinese government considers are essential to the countrys overall
http://www.cubastandard.com/2010/05/14/u-s-steel-group-uses-embargo-to-hammer-china/http://www.cubastandard.com/2010/05/14/u-s-steel-group-uses-embargo-to-hammer-china/http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/20081014_report.pdfhttp://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/20081014_report.pdfhttp://www.cubastandard.com/2010/05/14/u-s-steel-group-uses-embargo-to-hammer-china/http://www.cubastandard.com/2010/05/14/u-s-steel-group-uses-embargo-to-hammer-china/


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economic prosperity and social stability, while maintaining control of those sectors byencouraging the expansion of SOEs in the industries and protecting them from foreign competition.The Chinesegovernment has identified 14 key industries and seven pillar industriesthat are the life-blood industries of the national economy.10 These favoredindustries are supported by the Chinese government through its industrial policies.11 The industries designated by Chinaas pillar industries, for instance, include the automotive, electronics, oil and gas, aviation and aerospace, construction,

pharmaceutical, and machinery industries. Id. Primary downstream consumers of specialtysteel are among the seven pillar industriessupported by the Chinese government through itsindustrial policies.12 Indeed, givenspecialty steelsresistance to corrosion, fire, and heat, hygienic qualities,aesthetic appearance, strengthtoweight advantage, ease of fabrication, and impact resistance, it is an essentialmaterial consumed by a broad range of industries in numerousapplications:13


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L Mexico

Increase engagement and improved relations with Mexicoblocks China.

Fischer 12(Howard, Analyst for Capitol Media, Fox says US-Mexico ties deterChina's influence 9/14/12http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html)

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico

- including recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the

international agenda on its own terms."The threat is thisso-called power shift

from the West to the East," he told a press conference Thursday at an economic development eventorganized by the city of Peoria. "Those nations on the East are getting ready and preparedto lead," Fox explained, saying there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will

be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years. "And that means a veryimportant question to all of us: Under what principles are those leading nations (going

to) be exercising their leadership?" Fox said. His point: The U.S. would be better off

dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries thanperhaps those

with different worldviews. "We have our values in the West that we share," Fox said. "So we all on thiscontinent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that challenge." That means bolstering theeconomies of the United States and Mexico, he said.If the West wants to keep itsedge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the UnitedStates,legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said,

will require resolving the issue of who can come to this countryand under whatcircumstances. "It has to be based on humanism, on compassion, on love, on friendship, on neighborhood and on

partnership that we have together," Fox said. "Otherwise,we will keep losing the jobs to the East."

China & Mexico working collaboratively to access US markets US involvement prevents that partnership.Hearn 9(Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at theUniversity of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. Chinas Relations with Mexicoand Cuba: A Study of Contrasts, Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009,


Expanded cooperative ventures with Chinese enterprises, supported or not by an FTA,could enable Mexico to develop mutually beneficial production chainscapable of penetrating global markets. Increased intra-industry trade could

open access routes to Asian markets and foster the integration of newtechnologies, thereby reducing face-to-face competitionin third markets like the UnitedStates (ECLAC 2006). As Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez recently put it, The question is not

whether Mexico is losing the U.S. market, but rather how we can establish astrategic relationship with China to penetrate that market together .[...] ManyMexican business executives already understand thatthey must invest in China with Chinesepartners and invest in Mexico with those same partners. Then they can goafter the U.S. market together...We are developing three-way businesses

between Mexico, China and the United States,and the participants have begun to understand
http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.htmlhttp://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html


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what globalization of trade means and how to establish a structure that benefits everyone (IADB 2004). Such astrategy would require careful legal planningin order to avoid infringement of U.S. antitrustlaws, but in principle it is a reasonable solution that resembles the existing practice of shipping components into theNAFTA zone and the special economic areas of Panama (such as the Howard Farfan facility) for assembly and tax-free

entry into the United States. Considering the rapid growth of the domestic Chinesemarket, Mexican manufacturers should keep abreast of emerging trendsand opportunities there, with a view to commercial expansion into niche areas. Costa Rica has shown whatcan be achieved, exporting locally manufactured Intel computer chips around the world, including to China (Oppenheimer2008). As discussed below, some important initial steps toward greater Mexican knowledge of the Chinese market havebeen advanced through educational exchange and research scholarships.


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L Mexico/Cuba

Cuba and/or Mexico are economically and politically key toChina.

Hearn 9(Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at theUniversity of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. Chinas Relations with Mexicoand Cuba: A Study of Contrasts, Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009,


In terms of economic openness and political ideology Mexico and Cuba areat opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevertheless, for China both hold highstrategic value.Examining Chinas relations with Mexico and Cuba opens an analytic window into the way thatbilateral commercial, cultural, and diplomatic cooperation programs have adapted to distinct local conditions. Based oninterviews and observations gathered during three years in Cuba, ten months in China, and eight months in Mexico, thisPacific Rim Report outlines some of the positive and negative local responses that intensifying engagement with China has

produced. It also suggests that China has effectively tailored bilateral programs to localenvironments to advance common economic, political, and cultural

objectives. Chinas economic impact across Latin America has been uneven. Its demand for energy resources hasdriven up commodity prices, benefiting exporters such as Argentina and Brazil (soy), Chile (copper), Peru (iron, fishmeal),and Venezuela (crude oil) (Jiang 2005, Zweig and Jianhai 2005). Nevertheless, as the case studies of Jos Luis LenManrquez (2006) show, the exports of Mexico and the countries of Central America consist primarily of manufacturedproducts and textiles, resulting in seemingly insurmountable competition from a tidal wave of legal and illicit Chineseimports. Romer Cornejo (2005) suggests that this regional variation results in part from the structural adjustments of thepublic and private sectors pursued by Latin American countries to facilitate cooperation with China. To examine this issuein depth, in 2006 the Red de Estudios de Amrica Latina y el Caribe sobre Asia del Pacfico (Latin American andCaribbean Study Network on Asia and the Pacific, or REDEALAP) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)brought together scholars from IADB member countries to debate the effectiveness and future trajectory of structuraladjustments in order to deepen cooperation with China in areas ranging from fiscal integration into regional trade blocksto natural disaster relief (REDEALAP 2006). A recent book from the OECD (Santiso 2007) argues that although

Chinas emergence represents a valuable opportunity for Latin America todevelop alternative economic partnerships that reduce dependence on theUnited States and Europe, resource exports to China could gradually push the region into a raw materials corner.Similarly, a book from the Inter-American Development Bank entitled, The Emergence of China: Opportunities and

Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, argues that to avoid future dependence on primary resource exports,Latin American governments should adopt long-term strategies that position their countries as service providers for theexpanding Chinese middle class, particularly in the tourism and education sectors (Devlin et al. 2006). The authors signalthat to climb the industrial value chain in this way will require a greater coordinating role for Latin Americangovernments, since development strategies guided by the market alone, adopted in part as a backlash to previous importsubstitution strategies, will naturally favor short-term growth through commodity export. One summary of Chinasrelations with six Latin American countries (Jorge I. Domnguez et al., 2006) juxtaposes political cooperation with trade

patterns. The study argues that although economic considerations are paramount,Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil have to varying degrees used Chinato balance U.S. influence in the region. Varying degrees of alarm about this prospect are expressedin the publications of research institutions and think tanks associated with the U.S. military and government (CLATF

2006:2, Eisenman 2006, Lam 2004, Mrozinski 2002). Indeed, the triangular relationshipbetween China, Latin America, and the United States is emerging as aprominent topic of debate(e.g. Arnson et al. 2007). Chinas multiple objectives in

Latin America are evident in the diversity of its activities in Cuba andMexico. Although Cubaharbors some economic value for China through oil exploration, nickel extraction,biomedical collaboration, and electronics sales and manufacturing, its appeal is mainly political.Diplomatic links with Cuba promote Chinas image as a non-alignedprotagonist of South-South cooperation, providing ideological common ground with the eightmineral-rich countries that make up Latin Americas New Left. Mexico, by contrast, offers China moreconventional economic incentives such as a market for Chinese consumerproducts,a manufacturing base with geographic and legal access to North American markets, and the prospect ofpotentially massive investment in the oil sector. The following sections discuss the challenges


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and opportunities that China has brought to Mexico and Cuba, and the stepstaken by both governments to respond effectively.


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L Venezuela

Venezuela is key China protects its power with energy,agriculture, and telecommunications engagement.

Ellis 5(R. Evan, a fellow at the Strategic Studies Institute, he holds a Ph.D. in politicalscience with a comparative politics specialization in ethnic violence, Chinas role inLatin America US Senate Report,

www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub606.pdf)-mikeeIt can be argued thatVenezuela iscurrently Chinas principal strategic partner in Latin

America,both in terms of the volume of investment, as well as in the natureof the relationshipbetween the two countries.29 China currently has over $1.5 billion invested inVenezuelaprior to the recently announced $100 million in investment commitments, the largest investment positionofany country in the region.30 Bilateral trade between China and Venezuela increased from $150 million in 2003 to $1.2billion in 2004,31 and is anticipated to reach $3 billion in 2005, based on agreements signed during the state visit ofVenezuelas populist president Hugo Chvez Frias to China during the 2004 Christmas holiday,32 as well as a series of 19cooperation accords signed between Venezuela and China in January 2005.33 These figures reflect growth in both importsand exports. Venezuelan imports from China grew by 120 percent over 2004 to reach $560 million, while similarly

growing oil exports have allowed Venezuela to maintain a net trade surplus.34 The Chinese relationshipwith Venezuela reflectsnot only Chinese interest in Venezuelan resources, butalso the receptivity of President Chvez. His interest in developing alternative markets for Venezuelan petroleum, anddeveloping a hedge against U.S. influence in the region, make him a strong potential Chinese ally.35 In his high- profilestatevisit to China, Chvez signed a number of accords in which he committed Venezuela to put its petroleum productionat the disposition of the great Chinese fatherland.36 On the other hand, he is also a potential threat to Chinese interests,insofar as his Bolivarian revolution and support for indigenous populism and anti- globalist causes could fomentinstability in Chinas trading partners in Latin America, and undermine Chinese access to the resources of the region.

Chinas principal interest in Venezuela, based on trade and investmentpatterns, is petroleum products. Exports of Venezuelan petroleum products to China registered a 75percent increase in 2003,37 and a 25 percent increase in 2004, reaching a level of $640 million.38 Although the volume ofpetroleum shipments from Venezuela to China is limited and there are restrictions on the size of tankers and cargo shipswhich can be sent through the Panama Canal, infrastructure projects are under consideration which could sidestep theseconstraints by using pipelines to carry the oil overland to Pacific portseither across Colombia or Panama. As part of aseries of accords signed during the state visit of Chvez to China in December 2004, and leveraging the close workingrelationship with the Chinese developed over recent years,39 Venezuela will give China access to 15 mature oil fields, with

proven reserves of up to a billion barrels of oil, for Chinese firms to develop and exploit.40 As part of the accord, Chinawill invest $350 million toward bringing these fields on line,41 and in exchange will be allowed to build refineries onVenezuelan territory to process the oil.42 The agreement will help the Venezuelan government to overcome the shortfallsin technical management that it created when it fired half of all workers in its state oil firm, Petroleos de Venezuela(PdVSA), following the December 2002-March 2003 national strike. By allowing the Chinese to directly develop thesefields, Venezuela will be able to almost double its production despite a lack of internal technical capacity to do so, selling

significant quantities of oil to China while still serving its traditional markets.As a compliment to itsassistance to Venezuela in extracting its oil, China is also investing $60million in a number of projects to help Venezuela extract its natural gas. 43During a scheduled state visit at the end of January 2005, Chinese Vice-President Zeng Quinghong and senior directors ofChina National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will analyze the viability of even greater Chinese investment in thedevelopment of Venezuelan natural gas reserves.44 A third significant element of Chinese engagement with Venezuela inthe petroleum sector involves the Chinese purchase of Venezuelan ormulsin, and conversion of Chinese facilities to use itfor the generation of electricity. Ormulsin is a low-grade, high-pollution content fuel oil traditionally given little or novalue because of the lack of a global market for its use. In December 2001, CNPC and PdVSA established the jointventure

Orifuels Sinoven, S.A (Sinovensa) and invested $330 million to develop a capability to produce 6.5 million metric tons oformulsin per year by the end of 2004. In conjunction with this effort, in November 2003 CNPC began constructing aspecial new type of power plant capable of burning ormulsin in the Guangdong province of China.45 Through a dealfinalized in 2004, Chinas commercial agent, Petrochina, a subsidiary of CNPC, is currently purchasing 1.5 millions of tonsof orimulsin annually from Venezuela.46 By building the new power plant, China is able to make use of the Venezuelanormulsin, which it is able to purchase at relatively low cost because of the lack of a global market. Moreover,

Venezuela is Chinas natural partnerfor the ormulsin deal, in that the Latin American countrycurrently possesses the worlds largest proven ormulsin reservesalmost double those of Saudi Arabia, the next largestsource. China is also helping Venezuela to extract its coal. At the end of 2004, China announced that it will invest in thedevelopment of mines in the Orinoco River Basin area in the south of the country.47 China Minmetal and the Venezuelanfirm, Corpozulia, are slated to sign an agreement during the scheduled state visit of Chinese Vice President ZengQuinghong at the end of January 2005 that would use Chinese investment to increase Venezuelan carbon production.48


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Beyond the domain of extractive industries, the Chinese- Venezuelanpartnership has extended to the agricultural sector, where Venezuelaninterests in improving agricultural productivity coincide with Chineseinterests in developing reliable, friendly suppliers of foodstuffs. As part of theaccords reached between the two nations during the Christmas 2004 visit of Chvez to China, the Asian giant has agreed

to provide Venezuela with agricultural machinery and credits for the nation to increase its food production.49 In

keeping with the vertically integrated strategy that China has pursued inother Latin American countries to secure access to sources of supply forstrategic materials, China announcedin December 2005 that it will invest in theconstruction of a national railway line, helping Venezuela to transport rawmaterials and foodstuffs to market.50 Finally, China is also helping Venezuela todevelop its telecommunications industry, including assistance to Venezuelain access to space. As part of the series of accords reached during the Christmas 2004 visit of Hugo Chvez toChina, the two nations announced that China will launch a telecommunications satellite for Venezuela, helping the nationbecome less dependent on U.S. telecommunications networks.51 The initiative built on broader discussions of how Chinacould help Venezuela to develop and modernize its telecommunications infrastructure more broadly, including aDecember 2004 visit to Venezuela by Vice minister of the Chinese information ministry Lou Kinjian to discuss possiblecollaboration on telecommunication projects with the Venezuelan telecommunications firm, CVG Telecom.52


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L Venezuela Oil

US oil engagement in Venezuela crowds out China.Ziegler 6(Charles E. Ziegler is Professor and Chair of the Departmen

china da - starter pack - berkeley 2013

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