china generic - ddi 2013

8/13/2019 China Generic - DDI 2013

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China Disadvantage



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1NC – China Econ

China’s expanding into Latin America---US inflence is !e" to cro#d them ot

Do#d 1$ (Alan, Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, “Crisis in the America's,”http://www.ascfusa.or/content!paes/"iew/crisisinamericas#Focused on military operations in the $iddle %ast, nuclear threats in &ran and orth orea, and the lo)al threat of terrorism, *.S. policyma+ers ha"enelected a rowin challene riht here in the estern -emisphere: the epandin influence and reach of China . %yein enery resources to +eep its economy hummin, China is enaed in a flurry of in"estin and spendin in 0atin America . &nCosta 1ica, China is fundin a 23.456)illion uprade of the country7s oil refinery8 )an+rollin an 296million soccer stadium8 )ac+in infrastructure andtelecommunications impro"ements8 and pourin millions into a new police academy. &n Colom)ia, China is plannin a massi"e “dry canal” to lin+ the country7s;acific and Atlantic coasts )y rail. At either terminus, there will )e Chinese ports8 in )etween, there will )e Chinese assem)ly facilities, loistics operations anddistri)ution plants8 and on the ;acific side, there will )e dedicated )erths to ship Colom)ian coal out)ound to China. &n mid6<anuary, a Chinese6)uilt oil ri arri"ed inCu)a to )ein drillin in Cu)a7s swath of the =ulf of $eico. 1euters reports that Spanish, 1ussian, $alaysian and orweian firms will use the ri to etract Cu)anoil. For now, China is focusin on onshore oil etraction in Cu)a. ew offshore disco"eries will soon catapult >ra?il into a top6fi"e lo)al oil producer. ith some9 )illion )arrels of reco"era)le oil off its coast, >ra?il epects to pump 5.@ million )arrels per day )y 44, as the ashinton Bimes reports, and China has usedenerous loans to position itself as the prime )eneficiary of >ra?ilian oil. China7s state6run oil and )an+in iants ha"e in+ed technoloy6transfer, chemical, eneryand real6estate deals with >ra?il. ;lus, as the Bimes details, China came to the rescue of >ra?il7s main oil company when it souht financin for its massi"e drillin plans, pourin 23 )illion into the proect. A study in <oint Force Duarterly (<FD# adds that >eiin plun+ed down 2.3 )illion for a slice of >ra?il7s "ast offshore oilfields. Bhe <FD study re"eals ust how deep and wide >eiin is spreadin its financial influence in 0atin America: 249 )ill ion in loans to Eene?uela8 a 23.6)illioncommitment to de"elop Eene?uelan oil reser"es8 23 )illion for %cuadoran oil8 25.5 )illion to de"elop ;eru"ian mines8 23 )illion to help Arentina moderni?e its railsystem8 2.3 )illion to purchase Arentina7s petroleum company outriht. Bhe ew Gor+ Bimes adds that >eiin has lent %cuador 23 )illion to )uild a hydroelectric plant. Bhere is ood and )ad to >eiin7s increased interest and in"estment in the estern -emisphere. &n"estment fuels de"elopment, and much of 0atin America is

happily acceleratin de"elopment in the economic, trade, technoloy and infrastructure spheres. >ut China7s riches come with strins. For instance, in

echane for Chinese de"elopment funds and loans, Eene?uela areed to increase oil shipments to China from 9, )arrels per day to onemillion )arrels per day. &t7s worth notin that the Conressional 1esearch Ser"ice has reported concerns in ashinton that -uo Cha"e? miht try to supplant his*.S. mar+et with China. =i"en that Eene?uela pumps an a"erae of 3.H million )arrels of oil per day for the *.S.Ior a)out 33 percent of net oil importsIthe results

would )e de"astatin for the *.S. Bhat )rins us to the security dimension of China7s chec+)oo+ diplomacy in the estern

-emisphere. Jfficials with the *.S. Southern Command conceded as early as 4 that >eiin had “approached e"ery country in our area ofresponsi)ility” and pro"ided military echanes, aid or trainin to %cuador, <amaica, >oli"ia, Cu)a, Chile and Eene?uela. Bhe <FD study

adds that China has “a n important and rowin presence in the reion 7s military institutions.” $ost 0atin American nations, includin$eico, “send officers to professional military education courses in the ;1C.” &n %cuador, Eene?uela and >oli"ia, >eiin has )eun to sell “sophisticatedhardwareKsuch as radars and 69 and $A6 aircraft.” Bhe <FD report concludes, ominously, that Chinese defense firms “are li+ely to le"erae their eperience anda rowin trac+ record for their oods to epand their mar+et share in the reion, with the secondary conseLuence )ein that those purchasers will )ecome morereliant on the associated Chinese loistics, maintenance, and trainin infrastructures that support those products.” ;ut it all toether, and the southern flan+ of the*nited States is eposed to a rane of new security challenes. Bo )e sure, much of this is a function of China7s desire to secure oil mar+ets. >ut there7s more at wor+here than China7s thirst for oil. 0i+e a lo)al chess match, China is pro)in 0atin America and sendin a messae that ust as ashinton has trade and military ties in

China7s neih)orhood, China is de"elopin trade and military ties in America7s neih)orhood . Bhis is a direct challene to *.S. primacy in the reionIa challene that must )e answered. First, ashinton needs to relearn an o)"ious truthIthat China7s rulers do not share America7s "aluesI and needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that contet. >eiin has no respect for human rihts. 1ecall that in China, an estimated 6H million people arerottin away in laoai sla"e6la)or camps, many of them “uilty” of political dissent or reliious acti"ity8 democracy acti"ists are rounded up and imprisoned8 freedomof speech and reliion and assem)ly do not eist8 and internal security forces are i"en shoot6to6+ill orders in dealin with unarmed citi?ens. &ndeed, >eiin "iewedthe Ara) Sprin uprisins not as an impetus for political reform, )ut as reason “to launch its harshest crac+down on dissent in at least a decade,” accordin to Mirectorof ational &ntellience <ames Clapper. &n short, the ends always ustify the means in >eiin. And that ma+es all the difference when it comes to forein and defense

policy. As 1eaan counseled durin the Cold ar, “Bhere is no true international security without respect for human rihts.” Second, the *.S. must stopta+in the estern -emisphere for ranted, and instead must reenae in its own neih)orhood economically , politically

and militarily. Bhat means no more allowin trade deals Iand the partners countin on themI to lanuish. ;lans for a hemispheric free trade

?one ha"e faltered and foundered. Bhe trade6epansion areements with ;anama and Colom)ia were left in lim)o for years, )efore ;resident

J)ama finally sined them into law in 433. 1eenaement means re"i"in *.S. diplomacy . Bhe all Street <ournal reports that due to politicalwranlin in ashinton, the State Mepartment position focused on the estern -emisphere has )een staffed )y an interim for nearly a year, while si estern-emisphere am)assadorial posts (*ruuay, Eene?uela, %cuador, %l Sal"ador, icaraua and >ar)ados# remain empty. 1eenaement means re"ersin plans to slashdefense spendin. Bhe <oint Forces Command noted in 49 that China has “a deep respect for *.S. military power.” e cannot o"erstate how important this has )eento +eepin the peace. >ut with the *nited States in the midst of massi"e military retrenchment, one wonders how lon that reser"oir of respect will last. 1eenaement also means re"itali?in security ties. A ood model to follow miht )e what7s happenin in China7s )ac+yard. Bo deter China and pre"ent an

accidental war, the *.S. is re"i"in its security partnerships all across the Asia6;acific reion. ;erhaps it7s time to do the same in 0atin America.e should remem)er that many 0atin American countries Ifrom $eico and ;anama to Colom)ia and ChileI )order the ;acific.

=i"en >eiin7s actions, it ma+es sense to )rin these 0atin American partners on the ;acific 1im into the alliance of alliances thatis already sta)ili?in the Asia6;acific reion. Finally, all of this needs to )e part of a re"i"ed $onroe Moctrine . Focusin on Chineseencroachment in the Americas, this “$onroe Moctrine 4.” would ma!e it clear to %ei&ing that the * nited S tates welcomes

China7s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas )ut discouraes any claims of control Iimplied or eplicitI )y China o"erterritories, properties or facilities in the Americas . &n addition, ashinton should ma+e it clear to >eiin that the American people would loo+unfa"ora)ly upon the sale of Chinese arms or the )asin of Chinese ad"isors or military assets in the estern -emisphere. &n short, what it was true in the 3@th and4th centuries must remain true in the 43st: Bhere is room for only one reat power in the estern -emisphere.

'he plan limits China’s inflence in the region – restarts U(S( – Latin 'ies

)ham 1*



NMr. <. ;eter ;ham is senior "ice president of the ational Committee on American Forein ;olicy and the incomineditor of American Forein ;olicy &nterests., China7s Strateic ;enetration of 0atin America: hat &t $eans for*.S. &nterests, 43, American Forein ;olicy &nterests, 4: O93P

All of this led to Secretary of State -illary 1odham Clinton tellin an audience of Forein Ser"ice officers durin a town hall meetin at the State Mepartment last

year that she found the ains that China was ma+in in 0atin America QQLuite distur)in.77 She went on to add, QQ& mean they are )uildin "ery stron economic and political connections .... & don7t thin+ that7s in our interest .779H -ow then, in the faceof China7s rowin commercial and political relationships across the reion, might American interests +e secured and,

indeed, advancedR First, *.S. policyma+ers need to ac+nowlede that America7s 0atin American and Cari))eanneih)ors matter to the *nited States not only for its traditional security interest in limiting the inflence of otside po#ers in theAmericas )ut also )ecause lo)ali?ation has accelerated the momentum for the increased interation of all of the nations in the estern -emisphere and reionalcooperation is reLuired to meet a whole host of transnational challenes ranin from spurrin economic rowth to illeal immiration to narcotics traffic+in to

en"ironmental issues. -ence it is in the interests of the *nited States to renew relations with the countries to its south )y de"elopin and

articulatin a comprehensi"e strateg" that clearly puts to rest the leacy of QQ )enin nelect77 of the reion. Second, rather than

lament the passin of an era when the *nited States unilaterally dictated the terms of enaement with its 0atin American neih)ors, the fact that the reionis QQshapin its future far more than it shaped its past779 ouht to )e welcomed. Engaging Latin American governments and

peoples on mutually areea)le terms is )y far a more sstaina+le fondation for what ouht to )e the oals of *.S. policy in thereion: the sta)ility, security, and, ultimately, prosperity of the nations of the estern -emisphere. hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of thereion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challenes impose upon *.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest epectations and )etter taretin of a"aila)le resources. &n its enaements with its 0atinAmerican and Cari))ean neih)ors, the *nited States should pri"ilee )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. Bhird, despite China7s efforts tosecure access to 0atin America7s natural resources and mar+ets, the reion remains an important source of enery and other commodities for the *nited States as wellas a maor mar+et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out 4H percent of *.S. enery imports come from Central and South American countries and the reion )uys

4 percent of all of *.S. eports, more than the %uropean *nion. Bhan+s to proimity as well as lonstandin familiarity, *.S. )usinesses still ha"e acomparati"e ad"antae o"er o"erseas competitors in the mar+ets of the estern -emisphere.9 Bhus the administration must

recommit itself to )uildin on those solid foundations to reinforce and expand America’s economic ties #ith its neigh+ors to the

soth ( &n his 43 State of the *nion address, ;resident J)ama sinled out Colom)ia and ;anama as QQ+ey partners77 with which he promised to strenthen trade

relations.99 Get a)sent proacti"e hite -ouse leadership, the free trade areements with those two countries ha"e still not )eenratified , while the orth American Free Brade Areement that came into force under ;resident >ill Clinton was undermined )y last year7s enactment of a measurecancelin a pilot proram that allowed carefully screened $eican truc+s to carry caro in the *nited States. $o"ement to repeal *.S. tariffs on >ra?ilian ethanol andto settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween ashinton and >rasilia,especially since the orld Brade Jrani?ation has already ruled the su)sidies illeal and, in a rare mo"e, authori?ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions aainstAmerican products.9@

Chinese inflence in the region !e" to the glo+al econom" and regime sta+ilit" – preventing US inflence !e"

Ellis 11N1. %"an, Assistant ;rofessor of ational Security Studies in the Center for -emispheric Mefense Studies at the ational Mefense *ni"ersity.Chinese Soft ;ower in 0atin America, 3st Luarter 433,http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/imaes/fL6/<FD!9H6@3!%llis.pdf P

Access to 0atin American $ar+ets. 0atin American mar+ets are )ecomin increasinly "alua)le for Chinese companies )ecause theyallow the ;1C to epand and di"ersify its eport )ase at a time when economic rowth is slowin in traditional mar+ets such

as the *nited States and %urope. Bhe reion has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, hiher"alue added products in sectors seen as strateic, such as automo)iles, appliances, computers and telecommunication eLuipment, and aircraft. &n epandinaccess for its products throuh free trade accords with countries such as Chile, ;eru, and Costa 1ica, and penetratin mar+ets in 0atin American countries with

eistin manufacturin sectors such as $eico, >ra?il, and Arentina, the ;1C has often had to o"ercome resistance )y orani?ed and often politically

well6connected esta)lished interests in those nations. &n doin so, the hopes of access to Chinese mar+ets and in"estments amon +ey roups of

)usinesspeople and o"ernment officials in those nations ha"e played a +ey role in the political #ill to overcome the

resistance. &n Eene?uela, it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Eene?uela, Then Buo, was one of the few people in the country who could call

;resident ChU"e? on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue arose reardin a Chinese company. ;rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and Brade Flowsfrom the 1eion. At times, China has applied more eplicit pressures to induce 0atin America to +eep its mar+ets open to Chineseoods. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Arentine and $eican o"ernments that it has seen as protectionist: and, in the case of Arentina, as informalretaliation, China )ean enforcin a lonstandin phytosanitary reulation, causin almost 24 )illion in lost soy eports and other damaes for Arentina.35 China hasalso used its economic weiht to help secure maor proects on preferential terms. &n the course of neotiatin a 23. )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair-ydroelectric plant in %cuador, the a)ility of the Chinese )idder Sino-idro to self6finance 9H percent of the proects throuh Chinese )an+s helped it to wor+ aroundthe traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the proect ha"e a local partner. 0ater, the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro+e off neotiations with theChinese, only to return to the )arainin ta)le 4 months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es. &n Eene?uela, the ChU"e? o"ernment areed, for eample,to accept half of the 24 )illion loaned to it )y the ;1C in Chinese currency, and to use part of that currency to )uy 44@, consumer appliances from the Chinesemanufacturer -aier for resale to the Eene?uelan people. &n another deal, the ;1C loaned Eene?uela 2 million to start a reional airline, )ut as part of the deal,reLuired Eene?uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.3H ;rotection of Chinese ationals. As with the *nited States and other estern countries, asChina )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in 0atin America, an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha?ards common to thereion, such as +idnappin, crime, protests, and related pro)lems. Bhe heihtened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern unle reion of %cuador,

http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf




for eample, has )een associated with a series of pro)lems, includin the ta+eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in Barapoa in o"em)er4, and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company ;etroriental in 4 that resulted in the death of more than H police officers andforced the declaration of a national state of emerency. &n 45, ethnic Chinese shop+eepers in Ealencia and $aracay, Eene?uela, )ecame the focus of "iolent

protests associated with the Eene?uelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase, the ;1C will need to rely increasinly on a com)ination of

oodwill and fear to deter action aainst its personnel, as #ell as its inflence #ith governments of the region, to resol"e such pro)lems when they occur.Bhe rise of China is intimately tied to the glo+al econom" throuh trade, financial, andinformation flows , each of which is hihly dependent on lo)al institutions and cooperation. >ecause of this, some

within the ;1C leadership see the country7s sstained gro#th and development , and thus the sta+ilit" of the regime,threatened if an actor such as the *nited States is a)le to limit that cooperation or +loc! glo+al instittions from

spporting Chinese interests . &n 0atin America , China7s attainment of o)ser"er status in the JAS in 45 and its acceptance

into the &AM> in 4@ were efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in +ey reional institutions, and to +eep them from )ein used “aainst”Chinese interests . &n addition, the ;1C has le"eraed hopes of access to Chinese mar+ets )y Chile, ;eru, and Costa 1ica to secure

)ilateral free trade areements, whose practical effect is to mo"e Latin America a#a" from a U(S(-dominated

trading +loc! (the Free Brade Area of the Americas# in which the )C #old have +een disadvantaged(

Econ decline cases #ar

./AL 1* Mirector of Cooperati"e Bhreat 1eduction at the *.S. Mepartment of Mefense N<edediah 1oyal, 43, %conomic &nteration, %conomic Sinalin and the ;ro)lem of %conomic Crises, in %conomics of ar and ;eace:%conomic, 0eal and ;olitical ;erspecti"es, ed. =oldsmith and >rauer, p. 43643HP

0ess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li+elihood of eternal conflict . ;olitical science

literature has contri)uted a moderate deree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour ofinterdependent stales. 1esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic, dyadic and national le"els. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow.

First, on the systemic le"el. ;ollins (493 ad"ances $odcls+i and Bhompson's (3@@# wor+ on leadership cycle theory, findin that rhythmsin the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre6eminent power and the often )loody transitionfrom one pre6eminent leader to the net. As such, eoenous shoc+s such as economic crises could usher in aredistri)ution of relati"e power (see also =ilpin. 3@S<# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances, increas in the ris+of miscalculation (Fcaron. 3@@H#. Alternati"ely, e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"een"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see+ to challene a declinin power (erner. 3@@@#. Separately. ;ollins(3@@# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li+elihood of conflict amon maor, mediumand small powers, althouh he suests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remainun+nown. Second, on a dyadic le"el. Copeland's (3@@. 4# theory of trade epectations suests that 'future epectation of trade' is asinificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. -e arues that interdependent states arc li+ely to ain

pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. -owe"er , if the epectations of future tradedecline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as enery resources, the li+elihood for conflict increases , asstates will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources. Crises could potentially )e the trier for decreased trade

epectations either on its own or )ecause it triers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent states.5 Bhird, others ha"e considered the lin+ )etween economic decline and eternal armed conflict at a national le"el. $om )er and -ess (44# find a stroncorrelation )etween internal conflict and eternal conflict, particularly durin periods of economic downturn. Bhey

write. Bhe lin+ae, )etween internal and eternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin.

%conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the fa"our. $oreo"er, the presence of arecession tends to amplify the etent to which international and eternal conflicts self6reinforce each other (-lomhenR

V -ess. 4(34. p. W@X %conomic decline has also )een lin+ed with an increase in the li+elihood of terrorism (>lom)cr.

-ess. V ee ra pan a, 45#. which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to eternal tensions. Furthermore, crisesenerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment. YMi"ersionary theoryY suests that, when facinunpopularity arisin from economic decline, sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate eternalmilitary conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla' effect . an (3@@#, Mc1oucn (3@@H#, and >lom)cr. -ess, and Bhac+er (4#find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. =elpi (3@@#. $iller (3@@@#. andisanani and ;ic+erin (4@# suest that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states, due

to the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac+ of domestic support. Me1ouen (4#has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea+ economic performance in the *nited States, and thus wea+ ;residential popularity, are

statistically lin+ed lo an increase in the use of force. &n summary, rcccni economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economicinteration with an increase in the freLuency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship lin+seconomic decline with eternal conflict al systemic, dyadic and national le"els.' Bhis implied connection )etween interation, crises andarmed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic6security de)ate and deser"es more attention.

0oes glo+al

amins!i 2 (Antoni T., ;rofessor O &nstitute of ;olitical Studies, “orld Jrder: Bhe $echanics of Bhreats (Central %uropean ;erspecti"e#”, ;olish Duarterlyof &nternational Affairs, 3, p. H9#



As already arued, the economic ad"ance of China has ta+en place with relati"ely few correspondin chanes in the political system, althouhthe operation of political and economic institutions has seen some maor chanes. Still, tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of

political and leal foundations for the modem economy, or they are too wea+. Bhe tools are efficient pu)lic administration, the rule of law, clearly

defined ownership rihts, efficient )an+in system, etc. For these reasons, many eperts fear an economic crisis in China. Considerin the

importance of the state for the de"elopment of the lo)al economy, the crisis would ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. &ts politicalramifications could )e no less dramatic owin to the special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system, and the eistence of

many potential "eed issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the ;acific#. A potential hot)ed of conflict

is also Baiwan's status. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili?ation of internal policies could lead to a political, ore"en military crisis. Bhe li+elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hih, as the interests of 1ussia, China, <apan,Australia and , first and foremost, the *S clash in the reion.



1NC – 'ai#an

















)ham 1*









lament the passin of an era when the *nited States unilaterally dictated the terms of enaement with its 0atin American neih)ors, the fact that the reionis QQshapin its future far more than it shaped its past779 ouht to )e welcomed. Engaging Latin American governments and

peoples on mutually areea)le terms is )y far a more sstaina+le fondation for what ouht to )e the oals of *.S. policy in thereion: the sta)ility, security, and, ultimately, prosperity of the nations of the estern -emisphere. hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of thereion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challenes impose upon *.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest epectations and )etter taretin of a"aila)le resources. &n its enaements with its 0atinAmerican and Cari))ean neih)ors, the *nited States should pri"ilee )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. Bhird, despite China7s efforts tosecure access to 0atin America7s natural resources and mar+ets, the reion remains an important source of enery and other commodities for the *nited States as wellas a maor mar+et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out 4H percent of *.S. enery imports come from Central and South American countries and the reion )uys




relations.99 Get a)sent proacti"e hite -ouse leadership, the free trade areements with those two countries ha"e still not )eenratified , while the orth American Free Brade Areement that came into force under ;resident >ill Clinton was undermined )y last year7s enactment of a measurecancelin a pilot proram that allowed carefully screened $eican truc+s to carry caro in the *nited States. $o"ement to repeal *.S. tariffs on >ra?ilian ethanol andto settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween ashinton and >rasilia,especially since the orld Brade Jrani?ation has already ruled the su)sidies illeal and, in a rare mo"e, authori?ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions aainstAmerican products.9@

Chinese inflence !e" to prevent 'ai#an independence

Li *2

N-e 0i, ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee, >oston %B%1 B-% M1A=JR China7s ;resence in0atin America, 4, http://www.wilsoncenter.or/sites/default/files/%nterMraonFinal.pdf P

0atin America has )een a ma&or +attlegrond of the 3foreign polic" #ar ” )etween China and Baiwan o"erinternational leitimacy, reconition, and status. China7s Luest to reco"er what it calls “the pro"ince of Baiwan77 is one of thetop issues on its forein policy aenda . &ts stratey aainst Baiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al. >ilaterally, China has used a mi of

economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to +eep Baiwan from claimin independence . =lo)ally, China7s strateyhas focused on de"elopin an international united front desined to marinali?e Baiwan. Fearin 'ai#an’s psh for international reconition will lead to its declaration of independence, >eiin is determined to contain Baiwan in e"ery

corner of the world, especially in Central America and the Cari))ean, the stronghold of 'ai#an .Baiwan has 4 million people and well

protected territory. Get, of the *nited ations7 3@ mem)er states, only 4 reconi?e Baiwan as a so"erein state. Jf the 4 countries that reconi?eBaiwan, 34 are in 0atin America and the Cari))ean. Baiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reconition. &f these

states were to switch reconition from Baipei to >eiin , the damae to Baiwan7s political conZdence and its claims of leitimacy as a

state would )e seriously undermined. Accordin to then6prime minister of Baiwan Gu Shyi6+un in 44, Baiwan7s allies in 0atin America and the

Cari))ean “ha"e helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maximm diplomatic importance (44 *nder such circumstances, thestrateic competition )etween China and Baiwan has )een intensiZed in a reion far away from Asia.

Baiwan independence will spar+ *S6China u+e war Lo#ther, staff reporter in ashinton M.C., 415(illiam, “Baiwan could spar+ nuclear war: report” Baipei Bimes: Jnline: $ar 3, 43:http://www.taipeitimes.com/ews/taiwan/archi"es/43//3/4HH433#

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf




Baiwan is the most li!el" potential crisis that cold trigger a nclear #ar +et#een China and the US, a new

academic report concludes. “Baiwan remains the sinle most plausi)le and danerous source of tension and conflict )etween the *S and China,” says the 546pae report )y the ashinton6)ased Center for Strateic and 6nternational Studies

(CS&S#. ;repared )y the CS&S7 ;roect on uclear &ssues and resultin from a year6lon study, the report emphasi?es that >eiin continuesto )e set on a policy to prevent 'ai#an’s independence, while at the same time the *S maintains the capa)ility to cometo Baiwan7s defense. “Althouh tensions across the Baiwan Strait ha"e su)sided since )oth Baipei and >eiin em)raced a policy of

enaement in 49, the sitation remains com+sti+le ,

complicated )y rapidly

diverging cross-strait militar"capa+ilities and persistent political disagreements ,” the report says. &n a footnote, it Luotes senior fellow at the *S Council on

Forein 1elations 1ichard >etts descri)in Baiwan as “the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia.” Bhe report also

Luotes >etts as sayin that neither >eiin nor ashinton can fully control de"elopments that miht inite a Baiwan crisis. “Bhis is a classic

recipe for surprise, miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation ,” >etts wrote in a separate study of his own. Bhe CS&S study says:

“For the foreseea)le future Baiwan is the continency in which nuclear weapons would most li+ely )ecome a maorfactor , )ecause the fate of the island is intertwined )oth with the legitimac" of the Chinese Commnist )art" andthe relia+ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia6;acific reion.”

0oes glo+al and nclear

7n!ovic 8 (0ee <, American $ilitary *ni"ersity, “Bhe Chinese6Baiwanese Conflict: ;ossi)le Futures of aConfrontation )etween China, Baiwan and the *nited States of America”, http://www.lamp6method.or/eCommons/-un+o"ic.pdf #

A war )etween China, Baiwan and the * nited S tates has the potential to escalate into a nclear conflict and a

third #orld #ar, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict, includin <apan , )othorea s, 1ussia, Australia, &ndia and =reat >ritain , if they were drawn in to the war, as well as all other countries inthe world that participate in the lo)al economy, in which the *nited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. &f

China were a)le to successfully anne Baiwan, the possi)ility eists that they could then plan to attac+ <apan and )ein a policy of aressi"e epansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia, as

well as the ;acific and e"en into &ndia, which could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces tocontain the threat. &n any case, if China and the *nited States enae in a full6scale conflict , there are few countries in the worldthat will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. -owe"er, China, Baiwan and *ni ted States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine itse"entual outcome, therefore, other countries will not )e considered in this study.

http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf






Uni9eness



1NC – Uni9eness


















$NC – Uni9eness

Chinese inflence is high no# – the" are developing trade and militar" ties as a reslt of diminished U(S(

focs – that’s Do#d

Chinese economic inflence is gro#ing in Latin America, +t targeted policies can erode dominance

Sarmiento-Saher 15

NSe)astian Sarmiento6Saher is an editorial assistant for Bhe Miplomat., China and 0atin America: >i >usiness and>i Competition, /35/3, http://thediplomat.com/china6power/china6and6latin6america6)i6)usiness6and6)i6competition/P

Mespite a slowdown in China7s impressi"e economic rowth, the ;eople7s 1epu)lic of China (;1C# now ran+s as the world7s second larest economy. A )yproduct of this rapid epansion has )een China7s search for new mar+ets and resources to sustain its economic rowth. hile there has )een much

analysis of its acti"ity in Africa and Central Asia, anotherreion of rowin importance for China is 0atin America. &t i s not without serious challenes or difficulties that 0atinAmerica and the Cari))ean (0AC# are radually emerin as a r eion of sta)le economic de"elopment. Althouh 0AC is not a sinle country, many of its independent states ha"e an a)undance ofnatural resources and emerin manufacturin and ser"ice sectors that are proected to achie"e solid rowth in the comin years. 0atin America7s

prospects ha"e attracted serious attention, especially from Chinese firms and policyma+ers +een to )enefit from rowin opportunities and access to raw materials in 0AC. *nder ;resident -u

<intao China deepened its ties #ith Latin American contries throuh initiati"es li+e the 49 Asia6;acific %conomic Cooperation (A;%C# summit in 0ima, ;eru. China7s

new ;resident, Wi <inpin, is also no straner to the reion after ha"in made se"eral state "isits there as "ice president. Accordin to >ar)ara Stallins, Chinese eports to 0atin America rew

su)stantially from *.S. 2.@ )illion in 4 to *.S. 2@. )illion in 498 while 0AC eports to China increased from *.S. 2H. )illion in 4 to *.S. 2. )illion in 49. -owe"er, despite these dramatic increases of @3 percentand 3,44 percent, the *nited States and the %* are still ahead of China in terms of trade flows with 0atin America. China is 9ic!l" catching p to man" of LAC’s

traditional trading partners, howe"er. Already China7s trade num)ers with 0AC ha"e surpassed those of <apan , the pre"iously dominant

Asian tradin partner for 0atin America. hat is most sinificant a)out these de"elopments o"erall is how rapidly Chinese )usinesses and orani?ations ha"e epandedtheir acti"ity in the reion O a trend that contines to gro# . &n terms of forein direct in"estment (FM&#, a study )y %nriLue Mussel ;eters found that 0atinAmerica recei"ed 33.53 percent of total Chinese FM& from 46433 O ma+in the reion the second larest recipient of Chinese FM& )ehind only-on on. %choin the speed of the trade increases a)o"e, Chinese in"estment in 0atin America umped from 3 to @ percent of total FM& in 0AC from 49 to 438 thus ma+in the ;1C the third larest i n"estor in 0atin America

)ehind only the etherlands and the *nited States that year.Bhese in"estments come in addition to massi"e loan credits which, accordin to a report )y researchers at Bufts*ni"ersity, ha"e topped *.S. 2H )illion since 4H and may account for approimately half of the ;1C7s lendin a)road from 4@643. Bhe results of this epanded Sino60atin American economic relationship ha"e )een mied.

$uch of the trade, in"estment, and loans from the ;1C ha"e )een focused on the countries , companies, andinfrastructure that underpin the etraction of natural resources and other commodities in the reion. Bhis has )een ood news for thelare aricultural, minin, and enery industries of 0atin America, as well as for countries li+e Chile and Eene?uela. Jn the neati"e side, howe"er, this has raised Luestions a)out 0atin American dependence on resource eports andthe specter of Mutch disease. Another ad"erse effect is the rowin resentment amon some 0atin Americans in some sectors that ha"e )een increasinly displaced )y China7s industrial or manufacturin eports to 0AC. $eico has )een amon the hardest hit amon countries in the estern hemisphere as its lare industrial )ase has struled to compete with Chinese manufacturin in a diminished, post6financial crisis *.S. mar+et. Chinese eports to $eicoha"e also undercut indienous industry and resulted in a su)stantial trade deficit. China7s competiti"eness has complicated the Sino60AC honeymoon period in recent years. $ost nota)ly, >ra?il7s o"ernment has )een forced tomanae a sensiti"e )alancin act, fosterin lucrati"e relations with China while addressin the frustration of >ra?ilian manufacturin industries that strule aainst cheaper Chinese oods. 0a)or mo"ements and en"ironmentalroups ha"e also )eun to ta+e a stand aainst the etracti"e industries of countries li+e ;eru and Chile, whose eports and rowth are tied closely to the ;1C7s demand for resources. Mespite these issues, recent eternal and internal

de"elopments may )e creatin an opportunity for the reion to )alance its rowin economic relations with China. ota)ly, China7s comparati"e ad"antae may )e erodin due toincreased production costs and >eiin7s desire to lead its economy toward hiher6end manufacturin and domestic consumption. &f this trend continues, it would help )eleauered $eico, whose security

and political pro)lems may finally start to impro"e and i"e $eican industries a chance to compete on the lo)al stae. Using targeted policies, other countries withmanufacturin sectors may )enefit from China7s economic restructurin. &n terms of de"elopment o"erall, alarmism a)out China +eepin 0AC economies dependent on natural resources iso"er)lown. As 0atin America continues to rapple with deficits in infrastructure, education, and social mo)ility, the Luestion a)out whether rowin economic ties with the ;1C will )e a )urden or a +ey opportunity lies in the actionsof 0atin America, not China. Bhe central issue i s a)out o"ernance: those countries that )enefit o"er the lon term from the current commodity )oom will )e the ones most udicious when it comes to future in"estments and industrial

policy. Fihtin corruption is difficult anywhere, and 0atin America is no eception. As democracy deepens and middle classes emere in the reion, new sta+eholders will hold o"ernments accounta)le. As 0atinAmerica continues to de"elop, China will undou)tedly play a sinificant role in its proress and ad"ancement. Bhere will continue to )e

cases of cooperation and competition )etween 0AC countries and the ;1C as their relations mature O )ut as lon each side has much to offer the other, the people of )oth0atin America and China ha"e a lot to loo+ forward to in the e"olution of their “South6South relations.”

Chinese influence is hih now O the *.S. is slippin:iaoxia 15

Nan, %conomic J)ser"er/orldcrunch, H//3, & A$%1&CA'S >ACGA1M: C-&A'S 1&S&= &F0*%C%

& 0AB& A$%1&CA, http://www.worldcrunch.com/china64./in6america6@6s6)ac+yard6china6@6s6risin6influence6in6latin6america/forein6policy6trade6economy6in"estments6enery/c@s335/P

China is )usy in America's )ac+yard . J"er the past fi"e years, Chinese )usinesses ha"e )een expanding their footprint in

Latin America in a num)er of ways, )einnin with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of )ul+ commodities such as oil,copper and soy)eans. At this year's >oao Forum for Asia, for the first time a 0atin American su)6forum was created that included the participation of se"eral heads of

state from the reion. Since 433, China has o"erta+en the etherlands to )ecome 0atin America7s second )iest in"estor )ehind the *nited

States. China has sined a series of lare cooperation areements with 0atin American countries in such fields as finance,

resources and enery. Accordin to the latest statistics of the =eneral Administration of Customs of China, Sino60atin American trade rew in 434

to a total of 243.4 )illion, a year6on6year increase of 9.39[. Bhis trend ris+s ndermining the position of the U nited States as 0atin

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/china-and-latin-america-big-business-and-big-competition/






America7s sinle dominant tradin partner . &n 433, the *.S.60atin American trade "olume was 2H3 )illion. Some prominent Chinese ha"econdemned the *nited States' hih6profile 1eturn to Asia stratey, with its intention of “containin China's front door.” Shouldn7t the *nited States, which putforward the $onroe Moctrine two centuries ao, also Luestion how China is Luietly arri"in in America7s )ac+yardR An American )lind spotR &n their )oo+ America's

>lind Spot: Cha"e?, Jil, and *.S. Security, Andres Cala and $ichael <. %conomides a"oid the usual patter of lin+in South America7s YChina factorY with

some sordid conspiracy theory. &nstead, they in"estiate 0atin America7s su)tle choice )etween China and the *nited States,

attri)utin ashinton's #ea!ened inflence in the region to its failre in foreign polic" and economic

development 66 while China rises on the +ac! of glo+ali;ation. Since 394, when America put forward the $onroe Moctrine and declared

its sphere of influence to %uropeans, it has maintained the uniLue position of the *nited States in the Americas. $ilitary inter"ention has always ser"ed as the mostimportant tool for the *nited States. %specially after the start of the Cold ar, in order to cur) Communism from ta+in root in 0atin America, the *.S. used military

means larely without restraint. After the collapse of the So"iet *nion, the *nited States faced new eternal challenes such as the threat of lo)al terrorism. 0atinAmerica7s strateic sinificance has Luic+ly slipped to a secondary and more local ran+in. Bhe *nited States has shifted its focus in

0atin America to specific issues such as illeal immiration and dru smulin. Bhe “realism” that ran throuh America7s forein policydurin the Cold ar has radually transformed towards “idealism,” which in conseLuence wea+ens its influence in 0atinAmerica. *nder the doctrine of realism, America )ro+e any illusion of moral constraint in its forein inter"entions8 the protection of American interests was its pramatic principle. ashinton didn7t care that some 0atin American countries were dictatorial or that they "iolated human rihts, as lon as their leaders firmlystood on the side of the anti6Communist camp. Since adoptin idealism, America considers that whate"er is )est for itself is also )est for the rest of the world. &tsforein policy is aimed at maintainin democracy, human rihts and a free mar+et economy around the world. America )ean to demand that its former dictatorialallies Luit their attachment to power and carry out a transition to democracy. Since 3@9@, the *.S. has pushed 0atin American countries 66 many facin a se"ere de)tcrisis 66 to accept the “ashinton Consensus” oriented )y mar+et economy theory. Bhe ultimate oal set )y this theory may not )e a pro)lem. -owe"er, it did not pull 0atin America out of the Luamire of its “lost decade” of the 3@9s. &n the 3@@s, 0atin America suffered another se"ere economic downturn, which eacer)atedthe di"ision )etween the rich and the poor 66 leadin to serious social pro)lems. Bhe idealism eported )y the *nited States intensified the eistin contradictions in0atin American society, and e"entually led to the downfall of most of the )rutal totalitarian military o"ernments. China as a new fa"orite &nitially, China7s acti"itiesin 0atin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. >y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions, China manaed to interrupt diplomatic ties

)etween poor 0atin countries and Baiwan. Since then, with China's economic )oom, the supply of enery and resources hasradually )ecome a pro)lem that plaues China 66 and its echanes with 0atin America thus are endowed with realsu)stanti"e purpose. Amon the numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always )een the most powerful dri"in force. &n the past years, Chinahas consumed one6third of the world's new oil production and )ecome the world's second6larest oil importer. $ore than half of China's oil

demand depends on imports, which increases the insta)ility of its enery security. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le. &n this contet, 0atin America and its hge reserves and prodction capacit" naturally )ecame a destination for China ( China must )etter protect its enery supply, and can't

ust play the simple role of consumer. &t must also help solidify the important lin+s of the petroleum industry supply chain. &ndeed, the China ational;etroleum Corporation freLuently appears in 0atin American countries, and China7s in"estment and trade in the 0atin Americancountries are also focused on its enery sector. &n the opinion of many %uropean and American scholars, China's current practice isn7t much different from that ofestern coloni?ers of the last century. Bhese scholars )elie"e that China doesn7t care a)out local human rihts or the state of democracy when dealin with countries.

All China is interested in is esta)lishin lon6term , sta)le economic relations . Bhis realistic path is eactly opposite tothat of America's newfound idealism. Bhus China has )ecome a close colla)orator of certain 0atin American countries, such as Eene?uela, that are insharp conflict with the *nited States.



China 6nflence 7igh – )oplarit"

'he Latin American p+lic loves China

.lson <=$

N%ric, ilson Center, China seen fa"ora)ly in 0atin America, 5/4/3, http://www.wilsoncenter.or/article/latin6american6proram6the6news6china6seen6fa"ora)ly6latin6americaP

0are maorities of people in countries across 0atin America and the Cari))ean )elie"e China has at least Ysome influence Yin their reion and most see that influence as positi"e , accordin to a sur"ey partly funded )y the *nited States o"ernment. Bhe"iews on China were culled from a )road assessment of pu)lic opinion , conducted in 434, that in"ol"ed 4 countries and o"er53, indi"idual inter"iews, researchers said in issuin their findins at a thin+6tan+ seminar in ashinton on Bhursday. Jnly 4 percent ofrespondents, on a"erae, in the multinational sur"ey descri)ed China as the Ymost influentialY country in the reion. &n response to a separateLuestion, 4 percent said they epect China to ha"e that status within 3 years. Jf those who deemed China Ymost influential Y, morethan two6thirds (9 percent# characteri?ed that influence as either Y positi"e Y or Y"ery positi"eY, accordin to the findinsfrom the 0atin American ;u)lic Jpinion ;roect, led )y Eander)ilt *ni"ersity in Bennessee with fundin from the *S Aency for &nternationalMe"elopment, the o"ernment's main conduit for forein assistance. Amon respondents in the 44 0atin American and Cari))eancountries as+ed a)out China 6 includin, )ut not limited to, those who ran+ed it first in reional influence 6 thenation was rated neutral to positi"e alon a 36to6H scale.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/latin-american-program-the-news-china-seen-favorably-latin-america






China 6nflence 7igh – U(S( A+andonment

Chinese inflence is srging de to lac! of American engagement

Chggani and Lamadrid 15

N Sumeet Chuani and 1icardo Jrti? =il 0amadrid, Mia? 1eus &n"estin, China7s surin influence in 0atin

American finance, /3H/3, http://www.leoloy.com/li)rary/detail.aspR\9ca4)6)@e655e6@fH464e99dc@HP

Bhe onoin financial crisis in %urope and the United States contines to raise red flags for the 0atin American )ranches of multinational )an+s. 0atin American financial institutions anticipate that *.S. and %uropean )an+s will soon pull )ac+ from their international lendin acti"itiesI causin a su)stantial decrease in the reion7s o"erall liLuidity. As of <une 433, %uropean )an+s pro"ided 24 )illion in credit lines to their 0atin American counterpartsIma+in them the larest pro"iders of eternal fundin to the reion. Bhe *nited States also

pro"ides a steady flow of credit lines throuhout 0atin America. A reduction of forein credit lines will reduce the supply of dollarfundin for eporters and increase the premiums chared )y local financial institutions. Still, local su)sidiaries of *.S. and

%uropean )an+s that are well entrenched in 0atin American countries and hold a lare deposit )ase and copious amounts of local currency will sur"i"e. Bheexpected pll+ac! of American and Eropean +an!s may cause local )an+s in 0atin America to adopt a more conser"ati"e approach to

credit epansion. &t also holds the potential for a detrimental impact on eports flowin in and out of the reion . Bhe reduction of

credit facilities will reLuire 0atin American countries to search elsewhere for "alua)le credit lines. &t is a hihly pro)a)ly that this new scenario will i"eChinese and <apanese )an+s ne# opportnities to frther expand their already surin influence in the 0atin American

reion7s financial affairs .

Latin American governments are siding #ith China- lac! of U(S( investment !e"

>atts 15

N<onathon, Bhe =uardian, China's huner for resources has )i en"ironmental impact in 0atin America, /4@/3,http://news.mona)ay.com/43/4@6en6china6ama?on6impact.htmlP

Bhe world's most populous nation has oined the ran+s of wealthy countries in %urope, orth America and east Asia that ha"e

lon consumed and polluted unsustaina)ly. Bhis has led to what author $ichael B lare calls Ya race for #hat?s left @ and its impact is particularly

e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped, unspoiled natural resources. %"en more than Africa, 0atin America has )ecome a maor focus of>eiin's dri"e for commodities. A study last year )y %nriLue Mussel ;eters, a professor at the ational Autonomous *ni"ersity of $eico, found that

the reion has )een the leading destination for Chinese forein direct in"estment O mostly for raw materials and )y )i

o"ernment6run companies such as Chinalco and CJJC. Since the 49 financial crisis, China has also )ecome the main lender to the reion.&n 43, it pro"ided 2 )illion (]45 )illion# in loans O more than the >orld %an! , &nter6American >an+ and the *S &mport6%port >an+ com)ined( $ost of this has one to four primary eporters O Eene?uela, >ra?il, Arentina and %cuador O for minin or transport infrastructure.

Bhe economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous. Brade )etween China and 0atin America was ust 23 )illion in 4. &n 433, it had

sured to 2453 )illion. hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country, this helped 0atin America a"oid the worst of thefinancial and economic crises that ripped much of the de"eloped world and pro"ided etra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation prorams

that ha"e eased the reion's notorious ineLuality. &t also played a maor part in +olstering left-leaning governments that aresee+in an alternati"e to neo6li)eral prescriptions from ashinton and all Street.

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=87ca72b7-b9e3-474e-9f52-32e88dc93056


http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0329-gen-china-amazon-impact.html



http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0329-gen-china-amazon-impact.html



China 6nflence 7igh – A$ U(S( %igger

Chinese economic ties are p de to U(S( declines

A9ino 1$

NCarlos, professor of economics at San $arcos ational *ni"ersity , China's influence rows in *S' ')ac+yard',/4H/34, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/4346/4H/content!3HH44H4.htmP

ot so lon ao, 0atin America was considered the Y)ac+yardY of the *nited States, +t this is no# changing . &n the past decade

China's trade, in"estment and economic cooperation with the reion has increased , challenging the US? position in

Latin America( Bhe *S' importance as a mar+et for 0atin American oods was so )i that there was a time it wassaid: Yhen the *S economy snee?es, 0atin American countries catch a cold.Y >ut as C hina has now )ecome a larereport destination for some 0atin American countries, the same can now )e said of China. For eample, its influence in the ;eru"ian

economy is "ery )i, to the point that 0uis $iuel Castilla, ;eru's finance minister, has said Ythe truth is & liht a little candle e"ery day and pra" that China?s gro#th doesn?t fallY. China's emerence as an economic power and its needs for natural resources and food, which

0atin American countries ha"e in a)undance, means China is now the )iest trade partner of Arentina, >ra?il, Chile and ;eru. And China hasfree trade areements with Chile, Costa 1ica and ;eru that will enhance that relationship. &n the past decade trade )etween the *S and 0atin American countries

increased twice )ut the trade )etween China and 0atin American countries rew 3 times . Also in"estment from China isgro#ing at a fast pace( &n lo)al terms, the *S is still the )iest trade partner of the reion )ut it is onl" a matter of

time +efore China claims that role. 0atin American countries are interested in China not only )ecause it )uys their raw materials at hiher prices, )ut

also )ecause they want to sell manufactured oods to the rowin and affluent Chinese middle class, and )ecause they find it easier to do )usiness with China. Foreample, China lends money to them more easily than institutions such as the orld >an+, and countries such as Eene?uela and Arentina that cannot et loans frominternational )an+s et loans from China, which attaches few conditions to the loans. &n fact, China, throuh entities li+e the %port6&mport >an+ of China and theChina Me"elopment >an+, lent more money to 0atin American countries in 43 than the orld >an+, &nter6American Me"elopment >an+ and *S o"ernment put

toether. Another reason for the *S losin its influence in 0atin America is that its economy is not doin so well. hile 0atin American countries arerowin, due in no small part to the demand from China, the *S is facin the same pro)lems 0atin Americancountries suffered 4 years ao, namely a )i o"ernment deficit and de)t. Bhe *S demanded economic reforms in 0atin American countries 4 years

ao, and now it is the turn of 0atin American countries to demand that the *S do those reforms, mainly slashin o"ernment spendin. Also 0atin Americancountries are not happy with the *S )ecause it still opposes Cu)a's interation in the Jrani?ation of American States. Also the reiondoes not aree with the *S' approach to fihtin the dru trade and resol"in the immiration pro)lem from the reion to the *S.

Not for long - U(S( is falling and China is gaining

Cerna 11

N$ichael, China 1esearch Center, China's =rowin ;resence in 0atin America: &mplications for *.S. and Chinese;resence in the 1eion, 5/3H/33, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas6rowin6presence6in6latin6america6implications6

for6u6s6and6chinese6presence6in6the6reion/P

>y 4 two6way trade )etween China and 0atin America had already eclipsed 23 )illion, almost H[ more than the

pre"ious year and three years ahead of schedule. &n 49, two6way trade and in"estment reached 235 )illion, with approimately 234

)illion de"oted to )ilateral trade ($iller, 4@#. China appears to )e slowly closing the gap on the U(S ( &n 4@, 0atin Americaneports to China umped nine time s, reachin 253. )illion, almost [ of all 0atin American eports, accordin to e"in =allaher of Bhe =uardian.

*.S. eports and imports with the entire reion are still "astly reater than China7s, )ut "ear +" "ear, China is

catching p and in some countries, surpassin the *.S. %"en thouh China has )ecome a maor player o"er the past decade, trade )etween theChina and 0atin America still pales in comparison to 0atin American6*.S. trade. 1eional trade with the *.S. totals 2H )illion compared to ust o"er 235 )illion intrade with China. >ut the trend is sinificant when loo+in at where China was in 4 (23 )illion# (;ainter, 49#. hen we loo+ at 0atin American trade o"er the past decade with )oth the *.S. and China, one would find that the percentae of trade is slihtly shiftin. At the )einnin of the 4s the *.S. had more than half of

the trade with the reion8 China had less than 3[ for China. ow the *.S. has rouhly the same amount of total trade , )ut China is no# nearing 34[. =oin )ac+ a little further, total *.S. trade in 0atin America increased from .4[ in 3@@ to 9.[ in 4@ (-orn)ec+, 433#. -owe"er,$eico is the larest tradin partner of the *.S., which )rins that num)er up sinificantly. &f trade with $eico throuh AFBA is ta+en away, *.S. trade rowth

with 0atin America is e"en less impressi"e. $eanwhile, Sino60atin American trade increased tenfold o"er the last decade andin"estment has also increased.

6nflence is +ased on perception – China is +eating the U(S(

Ellis 11(1. %"an %llis is an Assistant ;rofessor of ational Security Studies in the Center for -emispheric Mefense Studies at the ational Mefense*ni"ersity. Chinese Soft ;ower in 0atin America A Case Study, <FD: <oint Force Duarterly8433 3st Duarter, &ssue ,http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese6soft6power6latin6america.html#

&t is also important to clarify that soft power is )ased on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences#, and notnecessarily on o)ecti"e reality. Althouh China's current trade with and in"estment position in 0atin America arestill limited compared to those of the *nited States, its influence in the reion is )ased not so much on the current

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-06/25/content_15520252.htm

http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-and-chinese-presence-in-the-region/


http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-06/25/content_15520252.htm





si?e of those acti"ities, )ut rather on hopes or fears in the reion of what it could )e in the future. >ecause perception dri"es soft power, the nature of the ;1C impact on each country in 0atin America is shaped )y its particular situation, hopes, fears, and pre"ailin ideoloy. Bhe Y>oli"arian socialistY reime of -uo ChU"e? inEene?uela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade aainst estern Yimperialism,Y while countries such as ;eru,Chile, and Colom)ia "iew the ;1C in more traditional terms as an important in"estor and tradin partner within thecontet of lo)al free mar+et capitalism. Bhe core of Chinese soft power in 0atin America, as in the rest of theworld, is the widespread perception that the ;1C, )ecause of its sustained hih rates of economic rowth andtechnoloy de"elopment, will present tremendous )usiness opportunities in the future, and will )e a power to )erec+oned with lo)ally. &n eneral, this perception can )e di"ided into se"en areas: hopes for future access toChinese mar+ets hopes for future Chinese in"estment influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in 0atinAmerica hopes for the ;1C to ser"e as a counterweiht to the *nited States and estern institutions China as ade"elopment model affinity for Chinese culture and wor+ ethic China as Ythe wa"e of the future.Y



China 6nflence 7igh – A$ Erope

Erope is pale in comparison to China

De .liveria 15

NAstrid ;rane Me Jli"eira, Meutsche elles, %urope losin out to Chinese conLuista, 3/4/3,http://www.dw.de/europe6losin6out6to6chinese6conLuista/a63HH394P

China's rowin economic presence in 0atin America comes at %urope's epense. %uropean leaders are tryin toma+e up lost round at this year's annual %*60atin America Summit in Chile. A )attle for access to 0atin America's mar+ets is

)ein waed ) )etween %urope and Asia. =erman companies, too, are increasinly eposed to Asian competition. Bhat is why =erman ChancellorAnela $er+el is set to see+ closer ties with her 0atin American counterparts at the summit )etween the %* and the Community of 0atin American and Cari))eanStates (C%0AC# in the Chilean capital Santiao this wee+end (464.3.43#. YBhe most important 0atin American countries ha"e "ery dynamic trade with thecountries of the ;acific 1im and China,Y said =^nther $aihold, deputy director of the =erman &nstitute for &nternational and Security Affairs, who currently teaches atthe -um)oldt &nstitute in $eico City. YBhe %uropeans need to consider how to position themsel"es,Y $aihold told M. Y$ore is epected of them than ust freetrade areements.Y China conLuers 0atin America Ben years ao, Asia's presence in 0atin America was insinificant.Chinese and South orean cars on 0atinAmerica's roads were as unthin+a)le as Chinese trains and roads. >ut today, Chinese manufacturers <AC $otors and C Auto ha"e set up shop alon with Ssanyonfrom South orea 6 and competition for %uropean manufacturers such as E, Audi or >$ is earin up.YChinese companies sometimes come with "ery attracti"efinancin options with which we can not compete,Y said 1afael -addad, head of >ra?il >oard, an association of =erman companies in"estin in >ra?il, concedes.Chinese companies are increasinly tryin to )uy up 0atin American companies, -addad told M. Y=ermany can't catch upY Accordin to the * Conference on

Brade and Me"elopment (*CBAM#, China increased its direct in"estment in 0atin America and the Cari))ean from 243million in 43 to nearly 255 )illion in 43 (includin in"estment in the Cari))ean offshore financial centers#. >y comparison, =erman directin"estment in the reion rew o"er the same period from 25 )illion to 2H )illion. Jli"er ;arche, coordinator of the =erman industry's 0atin America &nitiati"e, does

not see the rowin competition )etween Asia and %urope as a hue pro)lem. Ye cannot catch up with the Asian countries,Y he says, Y)ut we willcertainly impro"e our position in the comin years.Y As Mi"ision -ead for orth and South America at the =erman Cham)er of Commerce and &ndustry (M&-#,;arche says he )elie"es there is a Yreat futureY for colla)oration )etween =erman and 0atin American small and mid6si?ed )usinesses.=ermany is still one of themaor forein in"estors in 0atin America. Bhe production "olume of local =erman su)sidiaries alone totaled 23 )illion in 43. Accordin to a sur"ey )y theCham)er of Commerce's 0atin American Association, =erman direct in"estment in 0atin America dou)led from 43 to 43, from 2 )illion to 24 )illion.=ermany is losin mar+et share -owe"er, =ermany's economic influence in 0atin America has waned compared to the 3@@s. YAfter =erman reunification, the dooropened to the east, and mid6si?ed )usinesses concentrated their resources there,Y ;arche said. &n the 3@@s, many 0atin American countries em)ar+ed upon radical

pri"ati?ation prorams. >ut =ermany laed )ehind its %uropean neih)ors when it came to )uyin up 0atin American companies and resources: Spain )ecamethe second6larest in"estor after the *nited States, while =ermany lost mar+et shares.

http://www.dw.de/europe-losing-out-to-chinese-conquista/a-16551832

http://www.dw.de/europe-losing-out-to-chinese-conquista/a-16551832



Lin!



1NC – Lin!


)ham 1*







lament the passin of an era when the *nited States unilaterally dictated the terms of enaement with its 0atin American neih)ors, the fact that the reion

is QQshapin its future far more than it shaped its past779 ouht to )e welcomed. Engaging Latin American governments and peoples on mutually areea)le terms is )y far a more sstaina+le fondation for what ouht to )e the oals of *.S. policy in thereion: the sta)ility, security, and, ultimately, prosperity of the nations of the estern -emisphere. hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of thereion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challenes impose upon *.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest epectations and )etter taretin of a"aila)le resources. &n its enaements with its 0atinAmerican and Cari))ean neih)ors, the *nited States should pri"ilee )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. Bhird, despite China7s efforts tosecure access to 0atin America7s natural resources and mar+ets, the reion remains an important source of enery and other commodities for the *nited States as wellas a maor mar+et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out 4H percent of *.S. enery imports come from Central and South American countries and the reion )uys




relations.99 Get a)sent proacti"e hite -ouse leadership, the free trade areements with those two countries ha"e still not )eenratified , while the orth American Free Brade Areement that came into force under ;resident >ill Clinton was undermined )y last year7s enactment of a measurecancelin a pilot proram that allowed carefully screened $eican truc+s to carry caro in the *nited States. $o"ement to repeal *.S. tariffs on >ra?ilian ethanol andto settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween ashinton and >rasilia,

especially since the orld Brade Jrani?ation has already ruled the su)sidies illeal and, in a rare mo"e, authori?ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions aainstAmerican products.9@



$NC – Lin!

'he plan loc!s China ot of Latin America – it cases a sstaina+le fondation for relations #ith the U(S(

#hich #ill limit the inflence of otside po#ers in the region – that’s )ham

Engagement is perceived as Bero-sm – shts ot China

>atson *2

NCynthia A. atson, ;rofessor of Stratey at ational ar Collee, ashinton, M.C. %B%1 B-% M1A=JRChina7s ;resence in 0atin America, 4, http://www.wilsoncenter.or/sites/default/files/%nterMraonFinal.pdf P

>eiin pro)a)ly miht not ha"e increased its role in 0atin America had the $iddle %ast not )een a maor distraction forashinton o"er the past Z"e and a half years. ashinton has wanted >eiin to moderni?e its economy. Bhis was )ound to create more economic, diplomatic,and trade prowess for China as it has reached )eyond the isolationism of the Cultural 1e"olution, particularly in the newly lo)ali?ed world. &n many ways,

>eiin 7s increased in"ol"ement in 0atin America re_ects the unanticipated conseLuence of ettin what the est hopedfor from China. >ut, the ina)ility of ashinton to consider anythin )eyond the concerns a)out terrorism spreadin around the world, and

tryin to sal"ae a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in the $iddle %ast, is ha"in conseLuences for *.S. interests in other parts ofthe world. For cultural and eoraphic reasons, the ties )etween the * nited S tates and 0atin America ouht to )e stroner thanthose )etween China and the 0atins. %pectations of the strenth of 0atin AmericaO*.S. ties ha"e pro)a)ly always

)een unrealistic and fran+ly ahistorical8 the two parts of the world actually ha"e a num)er of fundamental differences. >ut the distance )etween

0atin America7s eperiences and those of China are e"en "ast er , ranin from reliion to ethnic homoeneity to historical roles in theworld. >ashington mst ma!e a more concerted effort to act as a enuine partner with the reion , rather thanreleatin it to the position of secondary or tertiary thouht that assumes a)solute *.S. leadership. Bhe *nited States and China claimthat each is serious a)out adoptin the economic philosophy that underirds capitalism: economic rowth is a net )eneZt

for all, not a ?ero sum ame. &f true, China, 0atin America, and the *nited States )eneZ t from the reater Chinese enaement inthis reion )ecause it creates competition. ;ure economic theory , howe"er, always rns p against political philosophies,

leadin to trade con_ icts, protectionism, and all6too6often a ;ero sm vie# )ased on the international relations theory of realpoliti+:

#hat’s good for m" adversar" mst +e +ad for me ( Bhe ris+s of arousin realpoliti+ in the *nited States , particularly as the

nation faces increased frustration with the reality of the $iddle %ast, is siniZ cant, pro)a)ly more than the ;1C )arained for when it )eanenain more with 0atin America o"er the past decade. &t appears unli+ely that >eiin will seriously accelerate its in"ol"ement in the reion )ecauseof the num)er of Conressional hearins, pu)lic conferences and assessments, and other warnins alertin the *nited States to China ha"in disco"ered 0atinAmerica. Bo accelerate its in"ol"ement would ris+ the relati"ely stron relations with ashinton at a time when other trade pro)lems and o"erall concerns a)out

China7s rowin power are already risin in the *nited States. At the same time, ashinton7s a)ility to focus eLually on all areas of theworld is not possi)le. ith *.S. interests directed elsewhere, it seems hihly li+ely that >eiin will )e a)le to maintain

the le"el of in"ol"ement in the reion it already has, without ashinton raisin too reat a ruc+us. &ndeed, >eiin7s )est outcomefrom its current )alance of in"ol"ement in the area is pro)a)ly oin to )e the lon6term de"elopment of trust andties o"er se"eral decades with the leaders of this reion, rather than immediately creatin crucial, hihly pu)lic ties )etween itself and 0atin American leaders. As so

often appears true in the international system, pro)a)ly the old tale of the tortoise and hare applies here, where China7s )iest ain will )eaccomplished o"er a lon time of getting to !no# the region , rather than showin up repeatedly in the Qroc+ star7role which is too soon and too rash for a lon6term, sta)le set of ties. >ashington seems li!el" to worry a)out the roc+ star

phenomenon , rather than attemptin to manae the emerence of another state )ecomin a lon6term partner with its 0atin American neih)ors.

China is +eating the U(S( the reason solel" de to economic relations

)ham 1*

NMr. <. ;eter ;ham is senior "ice president of the ational Committee on American Forein ;olicy and the incomineditor of American Forein ;olicy &nterests., China7s Strateic ;enetration of 0atin America: hat &t $eans for

*.S. &nterests, 43, American Forein ;olicy &nterests, 4: O93PAdmittedly there is reat "ariation as one eamines China7s relationships with each country in the reion, )ut its lin+s with reimes li+e -uo Cha`"e?7s

with its am)itions to eport its QQ>oli"arian 1e"olution77 and )uild a )road antiO *nited States coalition in the hemisphereH certainly do not putAmerican policyma+ers and analysts at ease. From ashinton7s perspecti"e, if the Eene?uelan leader7s support for the Castro )rothers7 dictatorship in Cu)a were

not )ad enouh, his increasin dalliances with the &slamic 1epu)lic of &ran and assorted $iddle %astern roues ha"e raised further hac+les. Bhat the ;1C$inistry of Forein Affairs nonetheless formally descri)es >eiin7s relations with Eene?uela as )ein a QQstrateic

partnership77 is certainly not "ery reassurin . Jne Chinese analyst e"en arues that the ;1Cshould "iew the Eene?uelan reime7s schemes

opportunistically. Bhe current eopolitical atmosphere in the estern -emisphere seems more conduci"e to Chinese economic epansion than restricti"e. hatChinese policyma+ers truly wish to see , and some 0atin American leaders are also determined to pursue, is the re"i"al of the 0atin





American interation proect started )y Simo`n >oli"ar at the )einnin of the nineteenth century. -uo Cha`"e? of Eene?uela sees himself as the

standard6)earer of a modern "ersion of this concept, as he attempts to ta+e on >oli"ar7s mantle to restart this centuries6old dream. &n China, Cha`"e?7s so6called >oli"arian 1e"olution has )eun to draw attention, particlarl" as a potential vehicle for contries in

Latin America to move a#a" from the onroe Doctrine concept . Should the >oli"arian reional interation proposal ain traction,

the first loical priority would )e to redce the region’s dependence on the North American mar!et . -ence China7sattracti"eness as an alternati"e mar+et and partner.9

Engagement !e" to netrali;e Chinese inflence – leadership is ;ero sm

%roo!es $** (;eter B.1., S%&J1 F%00J, B-% -%1&BA=% FJ*MAB&J, “-%A1&= JF B-%%SB%1 -%$&S;-%1% S*>CJ$$&BB%% JF B-% -J*S% &B%1AB&JA0 1%0AB&JSCJ$$&BB%%,” Federal ews Ser"ice.#ith increasinly well de"eloped power deri"ed from economic rowth, political sta)ility and rowin military capa)ility, China sees its re6emerenceas a lo)al power on its own terms as a certainty. A su)set of China's rand stratey is an opportunistic forein

policy aimed at its main competitor for preeminence in the international system, the *nited States. China is pursuin a forein policy which aims tosupport China's national interests while attemptin to )alance, or perhaps more accurately, un)alance the predominance of the*nited States across the lo)e. China is loo+in to Luietly use its rowin economic strenth to )uild new politicalrelationships a)road while eploitin dissatisfaction with the *nited States where"er possi)le. %"entually, in >eiin's

estimation, once China has athered as many allies and friends as possi)le and de"eloped its economic and military strenth to near that of

other maor powers, it will )e a)le to challene the *nited States directly if necessary. ;ut simply, China is usin its )ureonin

economic power to ain political and economic influence internationally, at America's epense where"er possi)le, in an effort to succeed the*nited States as the world's most powerful nation. China is pursuin a YrealistY forein policy in order to ad"ance its nationalinterests. Bhe eistence of dissatisfaction with ashinton or American policies in lo)al capitals only ma+es it easier. China's randstratey certainly applies to 0atin America and the Cari))ean, too . Bhe importance of 0atin America and the Cari))ean to China is

multifold, )ut two issues predominate: Baiwan and access to raw materials, especially enery. Jn Baiwan. Bhe ;1C will notfeel its rise to power is complete without returnin Baiwan to the mainland's political control. As such, China is employin e"ery instrument

of its national power to effect unification with Baiwan, includin an unwillinness to renounce the use of force to resol"e Baiwan's future. Jne of China'stactics is an effort to politically isolate Baiwan internationally )y enticin countries that currently diplomatically reconi?e Baiwan to shiftalleiances to the ;1C. e'"e tal+ed a)out that in Central and 0atin America and the Cari))ean as well. For Baiwan, the states of CentralAmerica and the Cari))ean, and ;arauay represent a relati"ely solid reional commitment to its status as a stateseparate from China. Bhis is important to Baiwan. Jn resources, China's other interest, not surprisinly, is access to natural resources, especially enery.Bhis has )een well discussed today. Since China's o"ernment is not popularly elected, its claim to leitimacy has )een its a)ility to impro"e the standard of li"in for

the 3. )illion Chinese people. Sto+in the economic furnaces also allows China to continue its unprecedented military )uild6up, supported primarily )y 1ussian arms sales, and to pro"ide o"erseas aid 66 often without conditions 66 to countries of interest in aneffort to spread its influence. J)"iously petroleum leads the list of resources in South and 0atin America and theCari))ean that China is interested in and we'"e tal+ed a)out that, particularly interested in Eene?uela, %cuador, Arentina, Colom)ia and$eico. Murin his "isits to >ra?il and Arentina, as ha"e )een discussed pre"iously, in o"em)er 45, Chinese president -u <intao announced plansto in"est 23 )illion in 0atin America o"er the net decade. Bhese in"estments made )y the Chinese o"ernment will undou)tedly

)rin political influence as well. China is also on a military diplomacy offensi"e across the lo)e. China uses military echanes to atherinformation on the host country as well as other countries if possi)le for military doctrine de"elopment as well as militaryintellience purposes. China has military and security interests in 0atin America as well. China's presence at Sinals

&ntellience facilities in Cu)a directed at the *nited States is lon6standin and well +nown, )ut China is also esta)lishinmilitary ties in 0atin America as well. For eample, in 45 the Chinese Mefense minister "isited )oth >ra?il and Cu)a, ad

since the late 3@@s, at least one hih6le"el "isit has ta+en place e"ery year to Eene?uela. &n addition, Chineseintellience ser"ices are undou)tedly acti"e in 0atin America and the Cari))ean, usin Chinese front companies,students, "isitors and intellience officers to steal and eploit technoloy and commercial secrets of interest to enhance theirmilitary prowess and economic competiti"eness. &n conclusion, China has achie"ed unparalleled rowth in its power, influence and importance

o"er the last 4 years. &ts rand stratey is to )ecome the preeminent power in the ;acific 66 and in the world 66 replacinthe *nited States as the world's most powerful nation. Bhouh that point is not here today, China is ma+in proress on )oth accounts. Bhe ;1C issee+in friends and alliances to ad"ance its aenda in Asia, %urope, Africa, the $iddle %ast and 0atin America. And & commend to thecommittee, may)e not this su)committee, that they loo+ at China's in"ol"ement in other parts of the world includin Africa which is a "ery interestin study in itself. 0i+e most other nations, China is committed to impro"in the performance of its economy and spreadin its political influence. &ts actions are worrisome in 0atin

America and the Cari))ean )ecause some national leaders, such as Eene?uela's -uo Cha"e?, welcome the arri"al of anotherworld power to offer an alternati"e to the *nited States. Bhere are challenes to China's ad"ances in 0atin America and the Cari))ean,

includin eoraphic proimity, culture and lanuae. >ut if ashinton wants to neutrali?e China's rowin influence in the westernhemisphere, it needs to ta+e action. An effecti"e stratey would include epandin its own free trade networ+,



helpin friendly nations de"elop stron mar+et economies, fosterin closer, more cooperati"e security relations withour 0atin American and Cari))ean neih)ors.



Lin! – A$ Not Bero Sm

6t’s a "es=no 9estion – inflence is ;ero-sm

Chang 11

N=ordon, -e is a columnist at For)es.com and the Maily. -e has i"en )riefins at the ational &ntellience Council,the Central &ntellience Aency, the State Mepartment, and the ;entaon.China Ba+es on America in a 'Tero6Sum=ame',33/44/33, http://www.worldaffairsournal.or/)lo/ordon66chan/china6ta+es6america6?ero6sum6ameP

&n “-ow China Can Mefeat America,” Gan, perhaps >eiin7s leadin international relations analyst, arues that, e"en without democracy, China can present a more

attractive model to the world than the * nited S tates and therefore #in over allies arond the glo+e . “&t is the )attlefor people7s hearts and minds that #ill determine #ho eventall" prevails ,4 Gan writes. “As China7s ancient philosophers predicted, t hecountry that displays more humane authority will win.” &n ma+in his points, Gan distorts Chinese history, misdescri)es the current lo)al situation, and malins the *nited States. Get alon theway he also performs a "alua)le ser"ice for Americans, i"in them an opportunity to "iew his o"ernment in a more realistic liht. &n the pro"ocati"e op6ed, a distillati on of his recently released

)oo+, Gan eplains that competition +et#een %ei&ing and >ashington is 3inevita+le.” And then he ends his piece with this thouht: “China7sLuest to enhance its world leadership status and America7s effort to maintain its present position is a ;ero-sm

game (4 Tero6sum competitionR Bhat7s not the way ashinton7s forein policy specialists see the international system. Since the end of the Second orld ar, they ha"e )elie"ed thate"ery nation can )etter its lot with free mar+ets, free trade, and free politics. Chinese leaders ha"e eschewed all three of these “estern” concepts, )ut they ha"e appropriated that awful phrase,“win6win,” and assure us they )elie"e in it. ith a win6win mind6set, o"ernments around the world ha"e souht to “enae” China, nurture it, and ease its entry into the international

community. aturally, the Chinese state has prospered in such a )enin en"ironment. >ut instead of acceptin the international system as it was Ithe fond

hope of the enaersI >eiin has souht to upend and replace it with somethin more friendly to its )rand of authoritarianism. &n short, li)eral

institutions are seen as a threat to China7s one6party state, and so it should come as no surprise that its leaders "iew eopolitics as an 6-#in,"o-lose proposition.

U(S( and China have to fight for inflence – there can onl" +e one

Falencia 15

N1o)ert, 1esearch Fellow at the Council on -emispheric Affairs and is a contri)utin writer for =lo)al Eoices., *Sand China: Bhe Fiht for 0atin America, /3/3, http://www.isn.eth?.ch/Miital60i)rary/Articles/Metail/Rid\34@P

Murin the first wee+end of <une, *.S. ;resident >arac+ J)ama and Chinese ;resident Wi <inpin met in California to discuss cy)er espionae and territorial claims in the ;acific 1im.

hile tension on these topics has hoed the headlines, the fight for inflence in another area could )e e"en more importantI 0atin America. Jther emerin mar+ets in

Africa, where China has an o"erwhelmin influence due to forein direct in"estment in minin and oil , also offer economic opportunities, )ut 0atin America has ana)undance of natural resources, reater purchasin power, and eoraphic proimity to the *nited States, #hich haslon considered 0atin America as its “)ac+yard .” 'he !e" 9estion now is will 0atin American countries lean more to#ard China or the United States , or will it find a way to )alance the two aainst each otherR 1iht now, 0atin American countries are increasinly confident than+s to

)ureonin economic and political interation )y way of tradin )locs, and they're demandin to )e treated as an eLual player. As a sin of its rowin importance, China and the*nited States ha"e courted 0atin America more than sal ( &n $ay, ;resident >arac+ J)ama "isited $eico and Costa 1ica while Eice ;resident <oe

>iden "isited Colom)ia, >ra?il, and Brinidad and Bo)ao. Shortly after these trips, ;resident Wi went to $eico and Costa 1ica to foster economic cooperation.China7s acti"e in"ol"ement in 0atin American eopolitics can )e traced )ac+ to 4@. Chinalco, China7s larest minin company, sined a 24.4 )ill ion deal with ;eru to )uild the Boromochomine and a 2 million wharf i n the Callao port. Since then, ;eru has sent 39. percent of its eports to China, ma+in China ;eru7s larest tradin partner. China7s imports to ;eru, howe"er,ran+ second with 3. percent of t he mar+et while the *nited States holds first place with 45.H percent. China has the upper hand with the 0ati n American leftist countries in terms ofinfrastructure and technoloy. &n 4@, Chinese telephone manufacturer TB% played an instrumental role in assem)lin the first mo)ile phone in Eene?uela +nown as “%l Eeratario” (Eene?uelaslan for optimal#. Former ;resident -uo ChU"e? introduced this new phone to low6income families ma+in it the world7s cheapest phone (2.@@ for a handset#. Additionally, China landed railconstruction proects in Arentina and Eene?uela and h as )ecome a maor )uyer of farm products and metal in South America. >etween 433 and 434, China purchased nearly H9.4 milliontons of soy from Arentina, up from H4 million in 433 and 43. China has also maintained an acti"e mar+et with >ra?il. Chinese oil company Sinopec and China Me"elopment >an+ offered>ra?ilian oil company ;etro)ras a 23 )illion loan in 4@ in return for hundreds of thousands of )arrels per day. &n 433, three Chinese metal companies purchased >ra?ilian minin companyCompanhia >rasileira de $etaluria e $ineracao. China7s )oldest mo"e in the reion i s the possi)le construction of a massi"e canal in icaraua. icarauan ;resident Maniel Jrtea pushed the ational Assem)ly to appro"e the multi6)illion dollar plan in <une. Bhe icarauan canal would ha"e a larer draft, lenth, and depth than the ;anama and Sue? canals, and the enactmentranted a -on on6)ased company permission to ) uild and control the canal for nearly 3 years. Bhe appro"al of this plan, howe"er, raised the ire of en"ironmentalists and neih)orinColom)ia, which recently lost , sLuare +ilometers of its Cari))ean maritime territory to icaraua )efore the &nternational Court of <ustice (&C<#. 0ast $ay, Colom)ian diplomat oemiSanin claimed that China had influenced &C<7s decision. Accordin to Sanin, Chinese ustice Wue -anLin +new )eforehand a)out icaraua7s intention to rant the canal construction to China

since Wue was a colleaue of Carlos Aruello, a role6player in the maritime case. Bhere is no e"idence for this, )ut it shows Colom)ia7s aniety of China7s rowin clout in thereion and how it can pset +alances of po#er (

'here can onl" +e one hegemon- economic inflence shifts the +alance of po#er

enende; 15

NFernando $ennde?, an economist and principal of Cordo)a =roup &nternational 00C, Bhe Counter)alance inAmerica7s >ac+yard, H/49/3, http://www.chinausfocus.com/forein6policy/the6counter)alance6in6americas6

)ac+yard64/P

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/gordon-g-chang/china-takes-america-zero-sum-game

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=166209


http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-counterbalance-in-americas-backyard-2/


http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/gordon-g-chang/china-takes-america-zero-sum-game







Since the $onroe Moctrine, *nited States power has )een an eistential fact6of6life in the Americas. $eico7s former dictator

;orfirio Mba? e"en Luipped: “;oor $eico, so far from =od8 so close to the *nited States.” Accordinly, anti6Americanism and a desire to )rea+ with the

tutelae of American mandarins ha"e lon dominated political narrati"es in the Americas. For many in the Americas, China7s rise portends a chane in the status Luo. $aintained in power )y Eene?uela7s "ast oil wealth, Eene?uelan ;resident -uo ChU"e? )enefitted reatly from the rowinworldwide and Chinese demand for petroleum. &n a loan6for6oil scheme uaranteein China a steady flow of oil for ten years, CM> placed a third of its o"erseas loans O an astoundin 25 )illion O in Eene?uela. Bhe scheme commits Eene?uela to supplyin 53@, )arrels of oil a day to China (or a)out 23H. )illion a year inre"enue at 23 a )arrel.# CM>7s loans amount to an estimated 23,5 for e"ery Eene?uelan. =i"en the insta)ility of the Eene?uelan reime, the loan is considered )ymany eperts as hih ris+. A similar 23 )illion loan to >ra?il7s state6owned oil company, ;etro)ras, is de"elopin offshore oil deposits in echane for oil shipments

of 3H,64, )arrels per day. $ost recently, >ra?il and China sined an areed to conduct 2 )illion in trade in local currency. Bhe deal drops the *.S. dollaras a medium of echane allowin >ra?il to +eep its reser"es of reen)ac+s for other purposes. Some analysts see this as a first step to a future renmin)i tradin )loc.Bhe risin prices, loans and other )enefits of Chinese wealth ha"e also )rihtened prospects for the emerence of trade and other pacts characteri?ed )y the lac+ of a*.S. presence. $ercosur (or the Southern Common $ar+et#, CA (the Andean Community of ations#, the ChU"e?6created radical A0>A (>oli"arian Alliance of theAmericas#, and C%0AC (the Community of 0atin American and Cari))ean ations#, a sort of alternati"e to the Jrani?ation of American States (JAS#, this year presided o"er )y Cu)a, are all alternati"e "enues a)sent the *nited States and Canada. From the perspecti"e of 0atin America7s forein policy ma+ers, China isundenia)ly a welcome economic, and potentially political, counter)alance to the *.S., especially i"en the o)ecti"es of some 0atin American countries. ritin inthe =uardian on Jcto)er 4, 434, ournalist 1al Ti)ec+i cites one of >ra?il7s top diplomats, Samuel ;inheiro =uimares, eplainin: “K >ra?il7s stratey souht to pre"ent the Qremo"al7 of ChU"e? throuh a coup, to )loc+ the reincorporation of Eene?uela into the orth American economy, to etend $ercosur with the inclusion

of >oli"ia and %cuador and to hinder the *.S. proect to consolidate the ;acific Alliance, which includes Chile, Colom)ia, $eico and ;eru.” Mespite its preoccupation with the $iddle %ast and its recent economic trou)les, the *.S. remains a predominant actor in thereion, and onl" the presence of a contr" capa+le of pro&ecting sperior economic and political power couldsinificantly shift the )alance of forces away from the current heemon . $oreo"er, unli+e the former So"iet *nion O once descri)ed as

a third world country with nuclear weapons O China has the economic resorces to create an alternative locs of financing,

trade and development (

Chinese inflence depends on U(S( desertion- plan reverses thatGohnson *

NStephen <ohnson is Senior ;olicy Analyst for 0atin America in the Moulas and Sarah Allison Center for Forein;olicy Studies, a di"ision of the athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at Bhe-eritae Foundation.>alancin China's =rowin &nfluence in 0atin America, 3/45/H,http://www.heritae.or/research/reports/4H/3/)alancin6chinas6rowin6influence6in6latin6americaP

China's main ri"al for lo)al preeminence is the *nited States. China sees the *nited States as pre"entin Baiwan's reunificationwith the mainland and thwartin >eiin's rise as a power. ;re"iously, China was isolated, )ut now plays +ey roles in Asianeopolitics and aspires to do so elsewhere. >esides status as a nuclear nation, it is a mem)er of the *.. Security Council, the orld Brade Jrani?ation, the =roup o f

de"elopin nations, and the Asia ;acific %conomic Cooperation roup. &t also hold s o)ser"er status in the Jrani?ation of American States. hile China has )ecome the second6larest *.S.

trade partner after Canada, it challenges U(S( inflence #herever it can ( &n fact, it will soon ha"e more attac+ su)marines than the *nited States, with the additionof four 1ussian ilo6class su)s and new diesel6electric "essels eLuipped with technoloy that will allow them to run Luieter than nuclear su)marines.N3P Accordin to former *.S. Am)assador to>eiin <ames 0illy, YNBPhe facts are that Nthe ChineseP run massi"e intellience operations aainst us, they ma+e open statements aainst us, their hih6le"el documents show that they are not

friendly to us.Y Chinese military white papers promote power proection and descri)e *.S. policies as Yheemonism and power politics.YN4P &n the estern -emisphere, the Chineseare ta!ing advantage of failres of half6hearted mar +et reforms and ashinton's unwillinness to pursueneih)orhood relations with much enthu siasm . ational Mefense *ni"ersity professor Cynthia A. atson notes, YNBPhe 3@@s turned into a period of se"eredisappointment as free mar+ets led to rampant corruption and unfulfilled epectations in 0atin America w hileashinton )ecame the world's superpower rather than a partner for the reion .YNP

Soft po#er is finite and demands competition +et#een the US and China

Ne# Bealand 7erald $*15 (“Settin rules for a new ame,” <une 3.#Bhat ne"er happened. >ut as the *S )eats a retreat from Afhanistan, conser"ati"es rail that China will eploit mineral wealth worth *S23 trillion from the war6

ra"aed nation, and suest that >eiin has outfoed ashinton in a contest that echoes the leendary =reat =ame, when0ondon and $oscow )attled for dominance in Central Asia. &n this scenario, the *S and China are enaed in a lo)alame, e"ident in the $iddle %ast, 0atin America, Africa, the Asia6;acific, e"en outer space, a "ital frontier in the era of cy)er warfare. Bhecontest in"ol"es Ysoft powerY as China see+s raw materials to fuel economic epansion, rowin influence on world

currency mar+ets, and more danerous )rin+smanship, e"ident in cy)er attac+s on the est and in sa)re6rattlin aainst anious neih)ours, includin <apanand the ;hilippines, allied to the *S. YBhere is a hih le"el of distrust eistin, and e"en rowin, )etween the two countries,Y says1ichard Solomon, a senior fellow at the 1and Corporation. Bhe cy)er attac+s and )rin+smanship in the China Sea raise concerns, he says, Ya)out a drift towardsconfrontationY.

'he US and China are loc!ed in an ideological stalemate - US incrsion disrpts the +alance of soft po#er

and incites militant Chinese opposition

D"non $*15 (icholas, ;hM candidate at $acLuarie *ni"ersity and coordinator of the 0ine 43 proect, “Soft ;ower:A *.S.6China >attleroundR” <une 3@th, http://thediplomat.com/china6power/soft6power6a6u6s6china6)attleround/.#

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america




Strip away the ostensi)ly )enin surface of pu)lic diplomacy, cultural echanes and lanuae instruction, and it )ecomes clearthat the *.S. and China are enaed in a soft power conflaration O a protracted cultural cold war . Jn one side )ristles

incum)ent estern "alues heemon, the *.S. Jn the other is China, one of the non6estern ci"ili?ations that Samuel -untinton noted )ac+ in 3@@

“increasinly ha"e the desire, the will and the resources to shape the world in non6estern ways.” >ut to shape the world in

non6estern ways means enain in a soft power )attlespace aainst an incum)ent who already holds the hih round . 0iu

comments that in reions deeply influenced )y estern cultures, political systems and "alues, the “latecomer” China is considered a“dissident force.Y *nder such circumstances, “it is rather difficult for China to attract estern countries with its own political and cultural charisma, let alone to

replace their positions.” Accordin to this and similar "iewpoints, China’s difficlt" in pro&ecting soft po#er across the #orld is in

part de to the #a" the U(S( leverages its o#n soft po#er. u <ianmin, the former president of China7s Forein Affairs *ni"ersity, putsthe point well when eplainin that *.S. soft power is dri"en )y the imperati"e of “maintainin *S heemony in chanin the world, of lettin the world listen to the

*nited States.” Bhus, the state of lo)al post6colonial, post6communist ideational heemony is such that lare swathes of the earth7s population seethe world throuh lenses supplied )y the est. Bhrouh these lenses, perceptions of China are dominated )y such concepts as the “China threattheory,” which portrays China as a male"olent superpower upstart. >ut it7s actually inside China7s )orders where the soft power strule )etween China and the *.S.

is most prominent. Jfficial pronouncements from Chinese leaders ha"e lon played up the notion that estern culture isan aressi"e threat to China7s own cultural so"ereinty. &t has thus ta+en myriad internal measures to ensure the country7s post6$ao reforms

remain an eercise in moderni?ation without “westerni?ation.” Since the 3@@s, for eample, ideoloical doctrine has )een increasinlyinfused with a new cultural nationalism, and the ;arty7s pre"iously archaic propaanda system has )een massi"elyo"erhauled and wor+in harder than e"er . %specially after the <une 5th crac+down and the collapse of the So"iet *nion,China7s leaders under <ian Temin )ean addressin the cultural )attlespace with renewed "ior. 1esolutionslaunched in 3@@ called for the ;arty to “carry forward the cream of our traditional culture, pre"ent and eliminate

the spread of cultural ar)ae, NandP resist the conspiracy )y hostile forces to Qesterni?e7 and Qsplit7 ourcountryK.” -u <intao trumpeted the same theme in early 434 when he warned that international hostile forces are intensifyin thestrateic plot of esternisin and di"idin China K &deoloical and cultural fields are the focal areas of their lon6term infiltration.” Bhe rhetoric of culture war continues to emanate from the CC; . &n a pri"ate speech deli"ered to Communist

;arty mem)ers last Mecem)erIwhich was first reported )y Seein 1ed in ChinaI Wi <inpin arued that the So"iet *nion had collapsed )ecause none of its mem)ers had )een “man enouh to stand up and resist” the onslauht of estern ideals. Bhen, in

recent days, South China $ornin ;ost reported on an article in the flaship CC; pu)lication See+in Bruth, which warned that “adoptinestern ideas would push the nation into a dead end and dash hopes for realisin the QChinese dream.7Y Bhecountry7s uni"ersity lecturers ha"e also )een ordered to a"oid discussin certain topics reflectin estern "alues,such as press freedom and ci"il rihts. hile such machinations may )e "iewed as post6leadership chane posturin, they ne"ertheless reflect>eiin7s lon6held sensiti"ity to the incursions of the “aressi"e” soft power of the est.



Lin! – A$ Not Bero Sm .il Spec

Cooperation is impossi+le – natral resorces are finite

%rton $** (Man, Former 1epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict, “-%A1&= JF B-% %SB%1-%$&S;-%1% S*>CJ$$&BB%% JF B-% -J*S% &B%1AB&JA0 1%0AB&JS CJ$$&BB%%,” Federal

ews Ser"ice.#0atin America is an attracti"e destination for China as it is an area of the world that is rich in mineral resources, commoditiesand particularly enery sources. As the world's second6larest consumer of oil, China is a leadin competitor of the*nited States in the search for oil, as and minerals in Central and South %ast Asia, the $iddle %ast, Africa and now in 0atin America.China alone accounts for 5 percent of the lo)al rowth in oil demand in the last four years, accordin to the *nited States

%nery Mepartment, and its national consumption is proected to rise to 34.9 million )arrels a day from H.H million )arrels now, o"er

the net 4 years. $ost of all, that oil #ill need to +e imported. Bhe *nited States, )y comparison, now uses 4.5 million )arrels a day, with nearly 34

million )arrels of it imported. As we all +now, oil is a finite resorce and the competition to exploit it a ;ero-sm ame. Bhemore lo)al oil the Chinese o))le up, the less oil a"aila)le to flow into American power plants, commercial truc+sand home heatin systems. e'"e already seen the effect at the as pump as as prices mo"e e"er hiher , sLuee?in

economic rowth. ith the larest oil reser"es outside the $iddle %ast and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its enery

)usiness )eyond the *nited States, Eene?uela has emered as an o)"ious contender for >eiin's attention. China has alsosined accords with ;eru and is now eplorin proects in >oli"ia and Colom)ia. Furthermore, China is also interestedin de"elopin the Canadian tar sands , where estimates of reco"era)le hea"y oil rane from 3H )illion to 3. trillion

)arrels.

Competition over natral resorces means inflence is ;ero-sm

rlant;ic! $**2 (<oshua, Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Forein 1elations, “China al+s Softly >utCarries a >i Chec+)oo+, Auust , *.S. ews V orld 1eport.#$yanmar pro"ides an early limpse of what China is )ecomin. After years focusin on its own economy, Chinahas )eun to o lo)al in influence as well as economics. ith rowin interests around the lo)e66from mines in;eru to peace+eepers across Africa to pipelines into Central Asia66China is findin it can no loner li"e )y itsdoctrine of Ynoninter"ention.Y &n Africa, 0atin America, Asia, and the $iddle %ast, China is )einnin to use itsinfluence in ways that may pro"e pro)lematic for the *nited States. ;artner or ri"alR For now, the >ushadministration is applaudin when China plays a complementary role. For instance, ashinton has encouraed>eiin to do the diplomatic hea"y liftin for neotiations to rid orth orea of its nuclear weapons proram. >ut atsome point, the *nited States may not loo+ so appro"inly on the rise of another lo)al player, a ri"al for influence,

for alliances, and for access to natural resources. China desperately needs new sources of enery to sustain itsepandin economy, and )y 4 it pro)a)ly will )e importin some 9 percent of its oil. Bhis potentially putsChina into competition with other maor oil6importin nations, includin the *nited States.

.il tradeoffs are ;ero sm

Chapman $** (Man, contri)utor to Co ews Ser"ice, “0atin America wary of China epansion,” <uly 3.#Closer to home, China runs two oil fields in Eene?uela and plans to de"elop a do?en more. &t )uys 34, )arrelsof oil a month from ;resident -uo Cha"e?'s state6run oil company and e"en etended a 2 million line of creditto help Cha"e? )uild homes for the country's poor. Brade )etween the two countries is epected to dou)le to 2

)illion this year. Yow we are free, and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland,Y Cha"e? a0atin American nemesis of >ush said upon completion of an oil deal with >eiin last Mecem)er. Bhe *nitedStates, which imports half its oil from Eene?uela, $eico and other 0atin American countries, isn't used to naturalresource competition in its )ac+ yard. ow >eiin, under the corporate uise of the China ational Jffshore Jil

Corp., offers 239.H )illion for *nocal. 0ate last month, the *.S. -ouse of 1epresentati"es o"erwhelminly passed aresolution declarin that the Chinese company's purchase of *nocal would Ythreaten to impair the national securityof the *nited States.Y



Lin! – A$ .nl" .il is Bero Sm

Even if there’s no competition over oil, Latin America #ill +ecome a +attlefield for competing economic

models

%rton $** (Man, Former 1epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict, “-%A1&= JF B-% %SB%1-%$&S;-%1% S*>CJ$$&BB%% JF B-% -J*S% &B%1AB&JA0 1%0AB&JS CJ$$&BB%%,” Federal

ews Ser"ice.# Jil is )y no means the only industry in 0atin America recei"in a hue influ of Chinese money . &n o"em)er 45,

China's ;resident, -u, "isited >ra?il, Arentina, Chile and Cu)a. >y the end of his trip, some 5 areements and )usinessdeals had )een sined. &n Arentina, Chinese state6owned enterprises are due to in"est nearly 24 )illion in the comin decade

in mines, railroads, and other infrastructure proects. 0ast year alone, Chinese state6owned enterprises pumped 23.5 )illion into the reion, accountin for.H percent of 0atin America's forein direct in"estment. Get e"en this impressi"e fiure pales in comparison with what ;resident -u and

his deleation pleded in future support. >y the year 43H, the Chinese intend for their in"estments in the reion to top 23 )illion.

>ut what China i"es with one hand, it epects to recei"e with the other. &n other words, there is a cost to pay for Chinese assistance, and thatcost is diplomatic and economic. After ;resident -u's "isit, Arentina, >ra?il and Chile reconi?ed China as a, Luote, Ymar+et economy,Y unLuote, a

status that precludes anti6 dumpin tariffs. Get China continues to pirate intellectual property, produce counterfeit oods, anddump these and other products into mar+ets in this hemisphere, and enae in currency manipulation. Bhe "irtual flood ofChinese eports is eatin away at local industries in Central and South America, and here in the *nited States. Bhese unfair Chinese trade policies and practices ha"eeacer)ated trade deficits across the reion. Accordin to the *.S. Census' Federal Brade >ureau, in 45 the *nited States' trade deficit with China reached nearly234 )illion. Bhat is the larest trade deficit we ha"e with any nation on earth and one6sith of our total trade deficit. Canada and $eico ha"e also )een su)ected toChina's unfair trade policies and practices. Canada's trade deficit with China rew from 23.4 )illion in 3@@H to 23.9 )illion in 4, and $eico's trade deficit withChina rew H. percent in one year, from Jcto)er 4 to Jcto)er 45. Bhe *nited States has the most dynamic and powerful economy in the world and yet

e"en our economy and industries are )ein staered )y the massi"e trade im)alance with China. &t is not hard toimaine the impact this un6le"el playin field is ha"in on the economies of the smaller countries in 0atin America.& ha"e lon ured the administration to ta+e a more hard6line approach to China's unfair tradin practices, and & am pleased that some success has )een achie"ed on theLuestion of China's artificially de"alued currency, the yuan. hile the Chinese ha"e ac+nowleded in recent months that they will need to e"entually let the Guanfloat openly on the world currency mar+ets, they ha"e not set a timeta)le for doin so. Clearly, we ha"e more wor+ to do and & ure ;resident >ush and theadministration to continue to +eep the issue of Chinese trade practices on the &nternational aenda. & would also caution our friends throuhout 0atin America a)outrantin China full mar+et economy status. & thin+ it is clear that China's state su)sidies, its currency pe, and poor la)or rihts conditions disLualify China from truly

deser"in, Luote, Ymar+et economy status.Y ConseLuently, rantin China full mar+et economy status would )e, in my "iew, a ra"e error in udment. China'sreturn on its in"estments in 0atin America oes )eyond securin China's dominant trade position. China is lendinsupport to the nations of 0atin America and epects in +ind support from them in multilateral world forums. Chinawants 0atin America's "otes at the *nited ations and other forums to counter)alance *.S. influence, particularly on thesensiti"e su)ect of Baiwan



Lin! – A$ 6t’s 'oo Late

Not too late- the relationship is still fragile

Herchen 1$

N$att, 1%S&M%B SC-J0A1 CA1%=&%6BS&=-*A C%B%1 FJ1 =0J>A0 ;J0&CG, China7s 0atinAmerican &nterests, 5//34, http://carneieendowment.or/434/5//china6s6latin6american6interests/aa"P

Bhe Chinese o"ernment oes to reat lenths to emphasi?e that its relations with the de"elopin world, includinwith 0atin America , represent a different approach than that of the *nited States or %urope. Bo hihliht thisdifference, China has lon promoted its forein policy principles of respect for so"ereinty and commitment tononinterference in the internal affairs of other countries. Get, there is, in fact, a heated )attle to portray therelationship in a positi"e or neati"e liht and much wealth and prestie are on the line. >ut the irony is that lost inall of this de)ate is that China7s economic ties to 0atin America ha"e important similarities to the historicaleperience of other rapidly industriali?in countries . Bhat is, China is underoin an intense period ofindustriali?ation and ur)ani?ation and therefore has a "oracious appetite for raw materials. hether or not thisindustriali?ation is healthy, sustaina)le, or e"en the product of Chinese o"ernment policies is de)ata)le. hat isclear is that for all of China7s efforts to emphasi?e its different approach to dealin with de"elopin countries, thestructure of its trade relationship with 0atin America loo+s "ery similar to historical relationships )etween theindustriali?in countries of the “orth” and the commodity6rich de"elopin countries of the “South .” And difficultLuestions that Chinese minin or other firms in 0atin America face a)out la)or or the en"ironment are "ery similarto those confronted )y American or %uropean firms in the past. Bhe real challenes for o"ernment and )usinessofficials in China and 0atin America attemptin to create a sustaina)le and sta)le lon6term economic and politicalrelationship are: the relationship is still ver" ne# , is relativel" narro# (in its commodity )asis#, and is potentiallymore fragile than often nderstood (commodity )ooms can )e followed )y )usts, or at least prices re"ertin totheir historical downward trend#. Bhat is, those officials in China and 0atin America miht )e )est ser"ed )yreconi?in that China , at least in terms of its trade and in"estment relationship with commodity6rich countries in0atin America and elsewhere, is more “normal” than many reconi?e or would li+e to admit .

http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/06/china-s-latin-american-interests/a7av




Lin! – 'rade

6ncreasing economic engagement throgh trade shts ot Chinese interests

Gohnson *


Bhe *nited States and China ha"e competing inter ests in Latin America . ashinton would li+e to see itshemispheric neih)ors de"elop into sta)le, demo cratic, prosperous trade partners that em)race the rule of law. >eiin seesthe reion as a source of raw materials, a mar+et for manufactured oods, and a platform for power proection. *.S.interests pro)a)ly coincide more with 0atin American needs. &n contrast, China represents an opportunity to temperAmerican dominance with )roader alliances. 1eretta)ly, Chinese aid and commodity imports may )uy time for state industries, powerful presidents, andinfluential oliarchs. $ost of all, such commerce could delay needed reforms and industriali?ation that miht lift 0atin America's near maority underclass out of

po"erty. America's strenth is competition, and it should influence the rules of the ame in that direction. As a oodneih)or and in its own and 0atin America's interests, the *nited States should: Accelerate free trade areements. Free trade

areements ha"e )een the hallmar+ of *.S. pol icies toward the reion since the 3@@s. As an inducement, America should drop its aricul tural

and steel su)sidies that dissuade potential partners and cost tapayers money. &mpro"ed *.S. trade relations with Andean neih)ors (and e"entually

Southern Cone countries# will open mar+et access for )oth *.S. and 0atin American enterprises and pro"ide an outlet for industrialrowth. Adopt more comprehensi"e relationships. Sinle6issue diplomacy that emphasi?es *.S. interests, such as counternarcotics, lea"es"acu ums in other areas such as security assistance and trade capacity de"elopment that other powers can fill. ;lan Colom)ia is wor+in

)ecause the *nited States is helpin Colom)ia to com)at terrorism, epand pu)lic safety ?ones, strenthen institutions, reactivate the

econom", and promote rural peace.N33P Cut red tape on assistance. Bhis policy should )e followed to the reatest etent possi)le. ;erformance reLuirements are )lunt instruments that do not co"er e"ery situation. Constraints such as annual certifications on counternarcotics cooperation and Article @9 letters that withholdsecurity assistance occasionally )ac+fire )y withdrawin support for allies in areas of mutual interest. &f Conress considers such restrictions a)solutely necessary, itshould tailor them to suspend only economic aid that is not crucial to immediate *.S. interests. ;ress harder for reforms and use pu)lic diplomacy. Jnce 0atinAmerica had elected leaders and fledlin mar+ets in the 3@@s, *.S. support for democracy and economic reforms declined. Althouh each country is responsi)le for

sol"in its own pro)lems, eternal pressure can encourae proress. *.S. pu) lic diplomacy, which is mostly reacti"e toward 0atin America, should )estrenthened and more supporti"e of *.S. de"elopment oals.





Lin! – exico

U(S( engagement !e" to shift China from exico

%lisa)eth al!in is a contri)utin writer for Bhe ew Gor+ Bimes )ased in $eico City, arla Ta)ludo"s+ycontri)uted reportin from $eico City, 6H6$*15 N“Chinese ;resident $a+es >ride6>uildin Brip to $eico”,Bhe ew Gor+ Bimes on the e), 0eisP

;resident Wi <inpin of China arri"ed in $eico City on Buesday for a three6day "isit intended to smooth o"er relations that

ha"e lon )een pric+ly. China has mo"ed forcefully to secure oil and other commodities in South America o"er the pastdecade. $eico 66 0atin America's second6larest economy 66 has played a different role thouh, not supplyin China )ut competin with it to eport manufacturedoods li+e electronics and clothin to the *nited States. ;resident Wi's "isit to $eico, comin only two months after ;resident %nriLue ;ea ieto of $eico tra"eled

to China, is an effort to recast the relationship under two new leaders. Bhe trip underscores China's rowin ties in the hemisphere. >eforearri"in in $eico, ;resident Wi "isited Central America and the Cari))ean, further securin his nation's foothold there. &n Brinidad and Bo)ao, he met with 3Cari))ean leaders and promised 2 )illion in loans for proects in the reion, accordin to >loom)er ews. Amon the loans was one for 24H million to )uild a

children's hospital in Brinidad, the Cari))ean's larest enery supplier. China has i"en )illions in loans and aid to Cari))ean nations to )uildstadiums, roads, ports and tourist resorts, and $r. Wi's "isit came days after Eice ;resident <oseph 1. >iden <r. met with 3H reional leaders in Brinidad, drawin asharp contrast a)out what the two countries had to offer the area's tiny economies. $r. >iden announced no new initiati"es, thouh he spo+e a)out pro"idin help forclean enery research and education and promised to dismantle remainin trade and in"estment )arriers. Jn Sunday, $r. Wi tra"eled to Costa 1ica 66 which has no

diplomatic ties with Baiwan 66 and promised almost 2 million in loans to finish )uildin a hihway. Bhe trip sent a clear messae to other CentralAmerican countries that )y withdrawin their reconition of Baiwan ''they could et oodies too,'' e"in ;. =allaher, a

professor at >oston *ni"ersity, wrote in an e6mail. 0atin American leaders ha"e lon complained that ashinton pays too littleattention to the rest of the hemisphere's concerns, and China has )eun to ta!e advantage of that perception . As0atin America and the Cari))ean )ecome less dependent on the *nited States, ''they ha"e another economic ally, and that economic ally is a superpower,'' said S. 0ynne al+er, the director of the China6Americas proram at the &nstitute of the Americas in California. $att Ferchen,a scholar at the Carneie6Bsinhua Center for =lo)al ;olicy in >eiin, suested that ;resident Wi's itinerary may also )e intended as a messae to the *nited States.

''China wants to remind the *.S. that ust as the *.S. has influence in reions close to China, China too has risininfluence in the Americas ,'' he wrote in an e6mail. Analysts will )e watchin the trip closely for sins that $eico and China are ta+in stepstoward chanin their frosty relationship. $eico's o"ernment would li+e to narrow its lare trade ap with China. 0ast year, $eico imported 2H

)illion in oods from China and sent )ac+ only 2H. )illion in products, accordin to $eico's $inistry of %conomy. Bhe two countries announced aseries of areements late Buesday co"erin enery, trade and education . ''e aree on the importance of )alancin our trade andin"estment relationship,'' $r. ;ea ieto said, notin promises from China to start )y acceptin more teLuila and por+ imports. China could also send a stronmessae )y announcin in"estments in $eican manufacturin, eperts said, perhaps in the automo)ile industry. ''At least ha"in the possi)ility of reater Chinesein"estment on the ta)le miht allow China and $eico to mo"e )eyond their up6till6now Luite dysfunctional and competiti"e relationship,'' $r. Ferchen wrote. Still,

China's interest in natural resources lea"es little dou)t that it is loo+in at future oil deals in $eico . &n a sym)olic mo"e,$eico's state6owned oil monopoly, ;eme, sined an areement durin $r. ;ea ieto's "isit to China in April to ship , )arrels a day to Sinopec, a state6owned company there. $eico's Conress is epected to )ein de)atin measures to open the country's closed oil industry to outside in"estment later in the year,althouh it is unclear how far that openin will o. Still, ''in $eico the oal is to et to the head of the line in enery reform,'' $r. =allaher wrote. Mespite

China's risin influence in 0atin America, the *nited States has an opportunity to impro"e relations with the reion ,he added. ''As ecited as 0atin American o"ernments are a)out the new trade and finance from China, they are also ettin concerned a)out an o"erreliance on

commodities and a)out the hea"y toll on the en"ironment Chinese6led rowth has eacted,'' he said. 'he pro+lem is that the United States is not

ma!ing an attractive enogh conteroffer, he said: ''e used to )e a)le to danle access to the )iest economy inthe world, )ut that is no loner enouh.''

Economic integration #ith exico !e" to chec! Chinese inflence

ares and Canovas 1*

NMa"id 1. $ares V =usta"o Eea CUno"as, the Center for *.S.6$eican Studies (San Mieo#, the $eico &nstituteof the oodrow ilson Center (ashinton MC#, %l Coleio de la Frontera orte (Biuana#, and %lColeio de $ico ($eico City#.Bhe *.S.6$eico 1elationship: Bowards a ew %raR, 43,http://usme.ucsd.edu/assets/45/33H.pdf P

Bhis chapter )eins )y )riefly characteri?in the most recent period of *S6$eico relations, the AFBA era since 3@@5. e trace the oriins, purposes, and theimpact of AFBA in the two economies and societies. A second section lays out the parameters of a new era in the )ilateral relationship, payin particular attention to

the challenes to )oth countries raised )y the processes of lo)ali?ation and democrati?ation. =lo)ali?ation7s impact on the relationship is )estcaptured in the rise of China and conse9ent displacement of exico in trade relations #ith the US . Memocrati?ation

complicates policy responses )ut impro"es the li+elihood that policy will ha"e some consistency o"er time. Bhe inade9ate manner in which thetwo countries ha"e responded up to now to these challenes is hihlihted. A third section discusses the essence of any appropriateresponse to these challenes: economic integration. Bhe failure of interation at a reional le"el is discussed, )ut we note that$eico7s lon )order with the *S means that the options open to >ra?il, Arentina and Chile in di"ersifyin their economic relations simply are not "ia)le for$eico. A fourth section e"aluates the current relationship and offers suestions to impro"e the two countries7 a)ilities to respond effecti"ely to today7s challenes.

http://usmex.ucsd.edu/assets/024/11635.pdf

http://usmex.ucsd.edu/assets/024/11635.pdf



Lin! – exico A$ Competes #ith China

exico loves China no# – goods mar!et

Althas 15

NMudley, =lo)al ;ost, hat does Wi see in $eicoR, /H/3,http://www.lo)alpost.com/dispatch/news/reions/americas/meico/35/meican6china6trade6i6latin6america6"isit3P

Jn his "isit now, comin ust se"en wee+s after meetin with ;ea ieto in China, Wi miht )e loo+in for more of $eico's 3.H million )arrels

of daily oil eports, most of which now oes to the *S refineries, analysts say. 0i+e other 0atin American countries, exico #ants more

access to Chinese mar!ets for its manufactured oods. YChina has )ecome a source of economic gro#th and afactor of international sta+ilit",@ ;ea ieto said in a welcomin ceremony for Wi this afternoon. Y exico #ants to tighten its

relationship(@ China6$eico trade roc+eted from a)out 2 )illion in 43, when >eiin sined on to the orld Brade Jrani?ation, to nearly 2 )illion last year. >ut so far Chinahas claimed the tier's share of that epandin pie. $eican consumers o))led up 2H )illion worth of Chinese electronics, toys and assorted eeaws last year, while )usinesses here sold )arely a 3th that sum in minerals and farm produce, tacos and teLuila to China.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/mexico/130604/mexican-china-trade-xi-latin-america-visit#1


http://www.globalpost.com/internal/section-config/china



http://www.globalpost.com/internal/section-config/china



Lin! – exico $ LA egion

exico is the !e" to Latin America

Harns#orth and >er; 1$N%ric Farnsworth is "ice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society, headin their ashinton, M.C., office since 4. -isareas of epertise include the role of Asia in the Americas, trade, enery, *.S. policy in the reion, and national security affairs. $ichael er? is

a Senior Fellow at the Center for American ;roress, where his wor+ as a mem)er of the ational Security team focuses on the neus of climatechane, miration, and security, as well as on emerin democratic powers in Bur+ey, $eico, >ra?il, and &ndia. Bhe *nited States and $eico:Bhe ;ath Forward, 33//34, http://www.americanproress.or/issues/security/news/434/33//55/the6united6states6and6meico6the6path6forward/P

Bhe country has solid standin. %conomic rowth is stron and proections show continued epansion, surpassin e"en

0atin American darlin >ra?il. Bhe middle class is rowin, with reater access to oods and ser"ices and the a)ility to purchase them. $anufacturin is

mo"in )ac+ to $eico from China, with $eico )ecomin a platform )oth for production in orth America and also in 0atinAmerica. Bhe country has also )ecome a leadin "oice in lo)al trade, as well as economic and en"ironmentalinitiati"es. $eico is )ecomin economically what it has always )een eoraphically: the crcial lin! +et#een North and Soth

America(

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/






Lin! – exico – EE !$ 0ain Hoothold

Economic engagement is critical to ensre the U(S( controls exico

ontealegre 15

NJscar, Miplomatic Courier, *.S.6$eico 1elations: 0o"e Bhy eih)or, 3/45/3,http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/reions/latin6america/33P

&n matters of forein policy, $eico is an afterthouht Iour attention and resources are di"erted to the $iddle %ast or to randstrateies )ased on Qpi"otin7 our eopolitical and economical capacity towards Asia. ith the *.S. economy performin at a snail6li+e pace,an emphasis on eports has re6emered,

)ut the )ul+ of the eportin narrati"e re"ol"esaround Asia. Bhis is unfortunate, )ecause o r neigh+or to the soth has 9ietl" positioned itself to +e

the next &e#el in the emerging mar!ets portfolio. For eample, $ar+et atch (a all Street <ournal su)sidiary# recently pu)lished a )ullish article on $eico with the followinheadline: “$eico: &n"estor7s ew China”. Bhe %conomist pu)lished an opinion piece titled “Bhe =lo)al $eican: $eico is open for )usiness”, hihlihtin $eican companies that are in"estin locally and in the *.S. and aruin

that exico is fertile grond for more investment , especially in the manufacturin sector. And accordin to Bhe Financial Bimes, >1&C countries (>ra?il, 1ussia, &ndia, and China# are

no loner the fla"or of the month8 $eico is now ta+in o"er that distinction. &n essence, immiration and the dru trade will no loner anchor the relationship )etweenthe *.S. and $eico8 instead, economics, finance, trade, and commerce #ill dictate the terms +et#een the

neigh+oring contries. -owe"er, in order to mo"e forward, undou)tedly the elephant in the room must )e addressed promptly. &mmirationIalthouh the topic is polari?in, it is imperati"e that ;residentJ)ama tac+les this issue steadfastly and in the most )i6partisan manner possi)le. &t can )e seen as one6sided that the onus is on the *.S., while $eico ets carte )lanche in its contradictory policy with their )order patrol methodstowards Central American mirants enterin throuh =uatemala. Brue, )ut when you are world7s super power, not all is fair in lo"e and war. Fortifyin )orders, )eefin up security, creatin walls that di"ide the two countries thatmimic uncomforta)le parallels )etween &srael and ;alestine should not )e the main focus. ith the world )ecomin more flat, the emphasis in tac+lin the immiration Luamire should )e trade and commerce. %naement,interaction, and the echane of ideas should )e the picture we want to paint. e should not foster the arument that an open )order policy and a lo)al )usiness paradim will compromise American o)s and )ite into our distincti"eAmerican competiti"eness. Bhe reason $eicans cross the )order illeally into the *.S. is )ecause of one desire: opportunity. &f $eico de"elops a lastin ro)ust economy, $eicans will no loner desire to come to the *.S. in suchdro"es. Accordin to elson >alido, ;resident of the >order Brade Alliance, this already occurrin: “$eico7s economy has, for the most part, weathered the worst of the economic downturn, meanin that more youn $eicans canreasona)ly see+ and find wor+ in their patria rather than headin north.” A stron American economy is etremely fa"ora)le for $eico. Burn the ta)les a )it, and ponder what it means for the *.S. when a $eican economy is ro)ust

and sta)leImore eport possi)ilities for the *.S.8 more in"estment from the *.S. to $eico, and "ice "ersa, creatin a win6win situation. 0ess need for $eicans to lea"e their homeland and loo+ for o)s in the *.S. Sounds familiarRBhe characteristics of many "i)rant emerin mar+ets such as China, &ndonesia, >ra?il, and &ndia, are occurrin riht net door. hy o %ast when we can "enture SouthR Jr perhaps, approach )oth simultaneously. Accordin to a

omura %Luity 1esearch report,$eico in the net decade will surpass >ra?il in )ein Latin America’s largest econom"( hen comparin

$eico on a =M; per capita )asis, $eico happens to )e less de"eloped than Arentina, Chile, and >ra?il. Bhis miht sound neati"e, )ut in actuality it should )e music to in"estors7 ears: more catchin up for$eico, meanin more investment and +siness activit". $oreo"er, $eico7s economy is hihly interconnected with the *.S. economy. Currently, $eico sends almost9 percent of its eports to the *.S., and rouhly H percent of i ts imports are from the *.S. $anufacturin costs in $eico are once aain competiti"e compared to China. Ben years ao, China7s la)or costs were four times cheaperthan $eico, )ut with la)or waes in China inflatin, $eico now has a comparati"e ad"antae )ecause its proimity to the *.S. Shippin caro across the ;acific can )e more epensi"e and arduous, "ersus truc+in caro fromnorthern $eico and deli"erin to isconsin in a matter of days. -owe"er if the *.S. administration continues to close the )orders, the echane of commerce )etween $eico and the *.S. will suffer due to set)ac+s of ust ettin

oods to cross the )order. 0uc+ily, AFBA is already in place, )ut )oth parties (and Canada# can do more to ct red tape and streamline the movement

of trade and commerce( Currently, $eico is enterin a perfect demographic storm . &t has a youn and rowin population, which is epected to last forse"eral decades. $eico is no loner only loo+in north for economic ad"ancement, as many of their multinational companies, such as >im)o and Ceme, are currently doin )usiness in 0atin America and Spain. $eico7s stoc+

mar+et is currently in tal+s to interate their stoc+ echane with the $&0A roupIthe esta)lished stoc+ echanes )etween Colom)ia, ;eru, and Chile. 'he U(S( mst act soon +efore it

arrives at the part" too late. &t is in the *.S.7s interests to ha"e $eico thin+ northward first, and then the otherreions second, +t the opposite is developing(

http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/latin-america/1331

http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/latin-america/1331



0in+ O Cu)a

C+a engagement reverses Chinese dominance

L!o 11 (<ames O Ser"ed in ashinton MC with the ational Council For So"iet %ast %uropean 1esearch, theSmithsonian &nstitute and two years as an analyst with the Canadian Mepartment of ational Mefence, “China's$o"es on Cu)a eed to >e Stopped”, /4@, http://www.nolanchart.com/article956chinas6mo"es6on6cu)a6need6to6

)e6stopped.html#Bhe 1ed Mraon ta+es another wide step of not only flein its muscles in Asia, )ut now wishes to supplant 1ussias and (former *SS1s# forward )ase presence @

miles from the *nited States6 C*>A. C+a is China?s +iggest trade partner in the Cari))ean reion, while China is Cu)a's second6

larest trade partner after Eene?uela. J"er the past decade, )ilateral trade increased from 255 million in 43 to 23.9 )illion in 43. N3P &n 4 Chinaand Cu)a discussed offshore oil deals and now China's ational ;etroleum Corporation is a maor player in Cu)an infrastructure impro"ements. Ni)idP &n 49, none

other than China's ;resident himself, -u <inBao "isited Cu)a with a sweet pac+ae of loans, rants and trade deals. 6f C+a +ecomes a ?client?

state of China, it #ill +e a sorce of leverage against America whene"er the *.S. ;ressures China on Bi)et and Baiwan. Soon we willwitness the newly constructed )lue6water na"y of China cruisin Cu)a's coast in protection of their trade routes and supply of natural resources. &n 4 it wasreported that Chinese personnel were operatin at least BJ (4# intellience sinal sations in Cu)a since at least 3@@@ N4P Bhis month, <une 433, the Eice ;residentof China made an important "isit, etendin more financial aid, interest6 free, as well as related health proects to )e paid for )y China. A client state in the ma+in

NP Bhe )est way to counter the Chinese in Cu)a is to re"erse Americas H year old, ineffecti"e and o)solete policy ofisolationism and )oycott of Cu)a. Bhe Chinese threat in Cu)a should +e the catal"st for the US to esta+lish open andnormali?ed relation s , with economic incenti"es to re6Americani?e Cu)a, return of American in"estments and security areements. Chec+in the Chinesemo"e in Cu)a early on is "ital to pre"entin a strateic Chinese foothold @ miles from Florida. Allowin China to replace 1ussia in Cu)a would )e a strateic

disaster. China is danlin financial assistance and in"estments in order to esta)lish a )eachhead close to the shores ofAmerica. Bhis is a counter6response to Americas continued military presence in Asia, continued support of Baiwan and recent increased American aid to the;hilippines in its spat with China o"er so"ereinty of the Spratly &slands. Bhe Cu)an people wish to return to the American fold and re6esta)lish the traditionalrelationship with the Cu)an anchor in Florida6 namely the almost @, Cu)ans li"in in Florida alone N5P

China is shoring p inflence in C+a no# – trade solves relations

%oston 0lo+e $=8 (“Cu)a7s reforms pa"e way for new *S policy, too”, 43,http://www.)ostonlo)e.com/opinion/editorials/43/4/@/cu)a6reform6create6opportunity6dra6policy6into6century/%14BBW=sd0emi-wF$/story.html#1elations )etween the *nited States and Cu)a ha"e )een stuc+ since the *nited States imposed a full economic em)aro

in 3@4, and durin the election season neither ;resident J)ama nor $itt 1omney sinaled much desire to chane the status Luo. Get whileAmericans ha"e )een loo+in elsewhere, sinificant chane has come to Cu)a . Bhe communist o"ernment of the

rulin Castro )rothers, Fidel and 1aul, is in the midst of a slow eperiment to promote economic entreprenershi p. 0ate

last year, Cu)a instituted reforms to its immiration policies that allow Cu)ans to tra"el a)road freely and allow those who ha"e

emirated or fled to return home. Bhese chanes , and the )einnin of J)ama7s second term, create an nsal

opportnit" to ac+nowlede Cu)a7s estures and respond in a su)stanti"e way. 1ather than simply etend policies that, in

fi"e decades, ha"e failed to dislode the Castros, the J)ama administration has a chance to dra *S policy into the 43st century.Bhe Cu)an6American population, which has historically opposed any loosenin of *S policy, is no loner monolithic. Supportin reater contactwith friends, family, and the Cu)an economy now animates a youner eneration of Florida "oters. >ecause of this trend, J)ama I who

performed nearly as well with Cu)an6American "oters as 1omney I has more maneu"erin room politically. Bhe first step would )eto end the silly claim, reinstated )y the J)ama administration last summer, that Cu)a remains a “state sponsor of terrorism.” Bhe administrationarued that Cu)a har)ored mem)ers of the 1e"olutionary Armed Forces of Colom)ia, or FA1C. &t has, )ut the FA1C and Colom)ia are now inneotiations8 those peace tal+s are supported )y the J)ama hite -ouse in order to end a )loody ci"il war. >y depolitici?in the Cu)a portfolio,

the *nited States could then )ein to lessen trade restrictions, startin with promotin cultural echanes8 endin the tra"el )an8 and

e"entually allowin for trade in oil, as, and other commodities. J"er time, )illions of dollars in new trade )etween the two nations

will )enefit )oth. Bhis would include )oosts to *S farm companies while helpin Cu)ans. Mirect relations would also further *Snational security and en"ironmental interests 8 as Cu)a opens up, other countries #ill s#eep in to see! inflence, as

China has alread" done. %specially as Cu)a increasingl" promotes offshore drilling and other maritime eploration, the*nited States mst improve commnication with -a"ana. Currently, e"en thouh the *nited States and Cu)a are separated )y a

narrow channel, the two countries ha"e no )ilateral communications to ensure safety standards for their mutual protection from oil spills. Secretary of State <ohn erry should ma+e Cu)a a focus of his first months in office. *nfortunately, hissuccessor as chairman of the Senate Forein 1elations Committee is 1o)ert $enende? of ew <ersey, a son of Cu)an immirants who hasopposed the administration7s efforts to ease relations. $enende? will need to )e con"inced that he can help Cu)ans more )y resettin American

policy. A)sent military inter"ention, there are "ery few opportunities for a president to dramatically alter relations with a

historic foe8 J)ama has ta+en such ad"antae of a disorientinly rapid li)erali?ation )y >urma7s military rulers. 1aul Castro7s recentdecision to lift tra"el restrictions on Cu)an citi?ens is similarly momentous I and sinals that the timing is ripe for a newdiplomatic aenda with Cu)a.



Lin! – C+a .il

)lan shores p US-C+an relationsIstops Chinese engagement

%en&amin-Alvadaro *J (<onathan, 1eport for the Cu)an 1esearch &nstitute, Florida &nternational *ni"ersity, ;hM,;rofessor of ;olitical Science at *ni"ersity of e)ras+a at Jmaha, Mirector of the &ntellience Community Centersof Academic %cellence ;roram at *J, Breasurer of the American ;olitical Science Association, “Bhe CurrentStatus and Future ;rospects for Jil %ploration in Cu)a: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned6reports/oil6cu)a6al"arado.pdf#=i"en that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations )etween the o"ernments of the U nited S tates and Cu)a , the le"el

of interest has rown sinificantly in the years due primarily to three reasons in the followin interest areas: enery security interests8 )roader reional strateic8 and purelyeconomic interests. First, the enery security interests i n the potential of Cu)an oil O althouh it really would not minimi?e the immediacy of an American enery crisis O is seen as possi)le if

only partial remedy to enery supply con cerns. Second, as Cu)a, in part )ecause of the increasin num)er of oil partnerships furthers itsdiplomatic and economic ties to with countries li+e Eene?uela, China, >ra?il and mem)ers of the %uropean *nion it may pro"e to

pro"ide Cu)a for a sufficient )uffer aainst *.S. opposition as it solidifies it economic and diplomatic role in the reion. Bhis is important inasmuch as

there is a de facto trend in the Americas that clearly disa"ows and attempts to minimi;e the inflence of the U nited S tates

in the reion, and with the rowin demands on the world economy )y China, it stands to reason that Cu)a may assume an increasin staturethat almost potentially lessens the presence of American inflence in C+an and hence regional affairs . Finally, and as

demonstrated )y the presence of American oil interests in the Fe)ruary 4 *.S.6 Cu)an %nery Summit in $eico City , there may )e interest in cooperatin in oint "enture proects, and )y etension assistin in the lon6term de"elopment in Cu)a7s oil industry. Bo accomplish this tas+ thereport see+s to lay out some national security policy considerations applyin strateic thouht to what & will term “;ost6Jil” Cu)a O a Cu)a that has a small )ut "i)rant and rowin oil and as production capacity with etensi"e relations with a num)er of partners, and an increasinly positi"e outloo+ toward addressin enery and economic de"elopment Luestions that ha"e plaued theCastro reime since the Cu)an 1e"olution. Bhe primary consideration i s to determine the present state of Cu)an enery and what possi)ilities eist that would )e a"aila)le to American forein

policy decision ma+ers and )usiness interests as the relations with Cu)a e"ol"e o"er the comin years.5 Bhis is important )ecause an" realistic appraisal of

ho# C+a is to ta!e advantage of its oil +onan;a involves the U nited S tates( ;re"ious research in this area has clearly laid out the scope

and o)ecti"es of Cu)an enery de"elopment schemes in the period since the demise of Cu)a7s fa"ora)le trade arranements with the former So"iet *nion. 1ecently, and as a result ofthe oil disco"ery and Cu)a7s enery arranement with the o"ernment of -uo Cha"e? in Eene?uela there is renewed interest in-a"ana7s enery policies. $ost of that analysis has )een focused on concrete possi)ilities where there can )e cooperation in the enery field )etween these two neih)ors.

Specifically, the wor+ has loo+ed at areas for the con"erence of enery interests as they apply to the near6 and lon6term enery de"elopment

scenarios facin )oth countries. $yers <affe and Solio ha"e addressed this possi)ility )y loo+in at the potential to increasedi"ersification and dispersion of enery resources. Bhis is an important consideration when one ta+es into consideration that well o"er one6third of all oilrefinin capacity resides on or near the -ouston shippin channel. Bhe potential neati"e impact on America7s refinin capacity followin -urricane 1itaH made a sin ificant impression on oilindustry analysts for the necessity of di"ersifyin the location of these "ital national resources. Bhe potential of "iewin Cu)a as a “stain area” for American oil storae and refinin is plausi)le )ecause of the proimity of the island. Bhe also )ecomes more attracti"e )ecause of the rowin climatic concerns o"er the uncertain security of oil resources in the =ulf reion as clearly

demonstrated )y -urricanes atrina and 1ita in 4H. hile it is true that Eene?uela has initiated an in"estment of 23 )il lion dollars to )rin the Cienfueos refinery online, there arestill many other possi)ilities open and a"aila)le to American companies, as well as a rowin num)er of forein

firms. Additionally, Eene?uela remains the fourth larest importer of oil to the *ni ted States and one can surmise that the eistin trade arranements )etween the *.S. and Eene?uela will

remain intact, the e"olution of the >oli"arian re"olution under Cha"e? and a rowin Chinese presence in the reion notwithstandin. Additionally, pursuin such a path wouldallow * nited S tates policyma+ers to ta+e ad"antae of what Cu)a has to offer in the followin areas: domestic technical

capa+ilities8 continuin human capital de"elopment8 strategic positioning in the Cari++ean, and an improved diplomatic

statre( Cu)a, )y any measure, possesses a larely untapped technical capacity owin to ad"anced trainin and education in the core mathematic and scientific areas. Bhis was clearlydemonstrated )y its attempt to de"elop a nuclear enery capa)ility in the 3@9s and 3@@s where)y thousands of Cu)ans pursued hihly technical career paths lea"in Cu)a with amon thehihest ratios of scientists and enineers to the eneral population i n all of the Americas. $oreo"er, the foundation of Cu)a7s "aunted pu)lic education system remains intact and increasedin"estment under "arious scenarios suests that Cu)a will continue to produce a welleducated wor+force that will )e critical to its future economic "itality. Bhis raises an important

consideration that )ein the role that Cu)a will play in the reion in the 43st century. &t suffices to say that Cu)a remains the strateically important state )y "irtueof its eoraphical location alone, in efforts aainst dru and human traffic+in and related national and reional security matters. Bhe etent t o which a sta)le Cu)an o"ernment has cooperated

with the *.S. in dru interdiction efforts in the past suests that the results from impro"ed diplomatic relations )etween neih)ors would ha"e the effect of impro"in

national security concerns related to terrorist acti"ity, illicit weapons transfers and the l i+e. *ltimately, a successful normali?ation of relations )etween t he *.S. and Cu)a in these areas ma"

#ell enhance and sta+ili;e regional relations that cold possi+l" lessen (or at a minimum, )alancin# fears of a Chinese

incrsion in hemispheric affairs ( Bo lessen those fears it may )e useful to re"iew the present structure of oint6"enture proects in the enery sector in Cu)a to ascertainthe feasi)ility and possi)le success of such an underta+in )ecome a"aila)le to American firms. $oreo"er, it is interestin to note that *.S. firms in the ariculture sector ha"e successfullyneotiated and consummated sales to Cu)a totalin more than 23 )illion dollars o"er the past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances )ut ha"e well6ser"ed thecommercial interests of all parties in"ol"ed.



Lin! – A$ C+a Doesn’t Spillover

Spills over throghot the region

'isdall 5- – Simon Bisdall, writer for the =uardian, $arch Hth, 43, YMeath of -uo ChU"e? )rins chance offresh start for *S and 0atin AmericaY www.uardian.co.u+/world/43/mar/H/huo6cha"e?6dead6us6latin6america/print-uo ChKve;?s departre frnishes %arac! .+ama #ith an opportnit" to repair US ties #ith Fene;ela , +t

also #ith other Latin American states #hose relations #ith >ashington #ere adversel" affected +" ChKve; ?s

politics of polarisation and the %sh administration?s viscerall" nintelligent reaction. &n particular, the change of

leadership in Caracas cold nloc! the deadloc! over C+a , if the hite -ouse can summon the reLuisite political will. ;ossi)ly anticipatin a transition,

ashinton Luietly enineered a diplomatic openin with Caracas last o"em)er after a lenthy standoff durin which am)assadors were withdrawn. 1o)erta <aco)son, assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs,telephoned icolUs $aduro, Eene?uela's "ice6president and ChU"e?'s preferred successor, and discussed, amon other thins, the restoration of full diplomatic relations. YAccordin to *S officials, the Eene?uelan "ice6presidentoffered to echane am)assadors on the occasion of the )einnin of ;resident >arac+ J)ama's second term. <aco)son, in turn, is said to ha"e proposed a step6)y6step approach to impro"e )ilateral relations, startin with reater co6operation in counter6narcotics, counter6terrorism and enery issues,Y Andres Jppenheimer reported in the $iami -erald. Bhere is much round to ma+e up. Y1elations )etween the *nited States and Eene?uela ha"e raned fromdifficult to hostile since ChU"e? too+ office in 3@@@ and )ean to implement what he calls 43st6century socialism,Y wrote a former *S am)assador to Caracas, Charles Shapiro. YChU"e? )lamed a failed 44 coup aainst him on the*nited States (not true#, nationalised *S companies, insulted the president of the *nited States and )lamed 'the empire' O his term for the *nited States O for e"ery ill K &n forein affairs, the o"ernment acti"ely supports the Assadreime in Syria, reects sanctions on &ran and enerally opposes the *S at e"ery turn.Y Mespite such strains, economic self6interest always pre"ented a complete rupture. Bhe *S remained Eene?uela's most i mportant tradin partnerthrouhout ChU"e?'s presidency, )uyin nearly half its oil eports. Caracas is the fourth larest supplier of oil to the *S. &n fact, the *S imports more crude oil annually from $eico and Eene?uela than from the entire ;ersian =ulf.Bhis shared commerce now pro"ides a formida)le incenti"e and a launch platform for a fresh start. hether the opportunity is rasped depends partly on $aduro, a ChU"e? loyalist )ut a reputed pramatist with close ties to 1al

Castro in Cu)a. Get it depends even more on .+ama, #hose first term, after a promising start, ended p perpetating

>ashington?s historical neglect of Latin America. 7e no# has a chance to do +etter. Bhe political climateseems propitious. %conomic and cultural ties are also strenthenin dramatically. Brade )etween the *S and 0atinAmerica rew )y 94[ )etween 3@@9 and 4@. &n 433 alone, eports and imports r ose )y a massi"e 4[ in )oth directions. Ye do three times more )usiness with 0atin America

than with China and twice as much )usiness with Colom)ia NasP with 1ussia,Y an J)ama official told <ulia Swei of the *S Council on Forein 1elations. 0atinos now comprise 3H[ of the *S population8 the *S is the world's secondlarest Spanish6spea+in country (after $eico#. Mespite this con"erence, hih6le"el *S strateic thin+in a)out the reion has continued to la, Swei arued. YFor the last two decades, *S domestic politics ha"e too often dri"en

ashinton's 0atin America aenda O whether on issues of trade, immiration, drus, uns or that perennial political al)atross, Cu)a, lon dri"en )y the supposedly crucial 'Cu)an "ote' in Florida,Y she said. J)amacould chane this dynamic if he tried and one #a" to do it #old +e to npic! the C+an pro+lem, #hich

contines to color the #a" Latin Americans vie# >ashington. Y-a"in won nearly half of the Cu)anAmerican "ote in Florida in 434, a ain of 3H percentae points o"er 49, J)ama can mo"e Luic+ly on Cu)a. &fhe were to do so, he would find a cautious )ut willin partner in 1al Castro, #ho needs rapprochement #ith

>ashington to advance his o#n reform agenda,Y Swei said.

Cari++ean nations are !e" – China is shifting its focs there

Sanche; and ' 1$ (Ale O 1esearch Fellow at Council on -emispheric Affairs, and 0ynn O 1esearch Associate atCouncil on -emispheric Affairs, “China "s. Baiwan: >attle for &nfluence in the Cari))ean”, /3,http://www.coha.or/china6"s6taiwan6)attle6for6influence6in6the6cari))ean/>eiin "s. Baipei Certainly a critical aspect reardin the etent of Chinese interests in the Cari))ean, as pre"iously has

)een reflected upon, is >eiin7s i nterest for Cari))ean islands to adopt mainland China7s negative stance on 'ai#an . &nthe past few years, China has ta+en an aressi"e approach in attemptin to dissuade Baipei7s a)ility to in"est in thisreion. Since ele"en out of twenty6three of Baiwan7s sur"i"in diplomatic relationships can )e found within the =reater

Cari))ean,N4P it is of distinct importance for China to ensure that it maintains ro)ust ties with 0atin American andCari))ean countries for political reasons, while also managing to limit 'aipei’s involvement in the reion. ithout includinthe Central American states, the Cari))ean nations that currently reconi?e Baiwan are the Mominican 1epu)lic, -aiti, Saint itts and e"is,Saint 0ucia, as well as Saint Eincent and the =renadines. Currently, the lonstandin diplomatic competition )etween the two Chinas seems to )ecoolin down, due to incum)ent Baiwanese president $a Gin6eou )ein re6elected.N43P &t seems clear that ;resident $a wants to promote a

peaceful path towards cross6strait relations de"elopment, and hence the su)tle tu6of6war o"er diplomatic reconition seems, at least for the time )ein, to )e comin to an end.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print






Lin! – Fene;ela

Engagement !e" to chec! Chinese inflence

Dal" 1$

N<ohn, Jilprice.com, Eene?uela 1amps up China Jil %ports *nsettlin ashinton, 9/43/34,http://oilprice.com/%nery/Crude6Jil/Eene?uela61amps6up6China6Jil6%ports6*nsettlin6ashinton.htmlP

Bhe )iest eostrateic chane of the past decade o"erloo+ed )y ashinton policy won+s in their fiation on their self6proclaimed “war on

terror” is that Latin America has +een thro#ing off the shac!les of the onroe Doctrine ( Bhese inoredde"elopments may well soon refocus ashinton7s attention on the Southern -emisphere, as Eene?uela7s ;resident -uo

Cha"e? reorients his country7s to China. &t is not an inconsidera)le element of concern for the J)ama administration. Accordin to the *.S. %nery Administration, the*nited States total crude oil imports now a"erae @. million )arrels per day, with the top fi"e eportin countries )ein Canada (4. m)pd#, $eico (3.3@ m)pd#, Saudi Ara)ia (3.3m)pd#, with Eene?uela in fourth place at @ thousand )arrels per day. ote that two of America7s top four enery importers are south of the 1io =rande. Furthermore, Eene?uela7s reser"esaccordin to J;%C now top those of Saudi Ara)ia, with Eene?uela now estimated to ha"e the larest con"entional oil reser"es and the second6larest natural as reser"es in the estern-emisphere. Bwo years ao J;%C reported that of the orani?ation7s 93. percent of the lo)e7s +nown oil reser"es Eene?uela had 45.9 percent, eceedin Saudi Ara)ia with 44.4 So, why isCha"e? in ashinton7s )ad )oo+sR ell, amon other reasons, for the company he +eeps, as t he 1ussian Federation, &ran and Cu)a are all allies. ote that the first two are also maor oileporters. orse howe"er are the social prorams that Cha"e? has implemented to )enefit his people, which not only smac+ of socialism )ut offer an alternati"e t o ashinton7s proscriptions.Case in point 6 Eene?uela7s health care system. A oint Cu)an6Eene?uelan medical proram, “>arrio Adentro,” has made health care free and accessi)le to all Eene?uelans. Founded in 4,>arrio Adentro epanded Eene?uela7s national health care system )y employin more than , Cu)an medical professionals as the o"ernment eLuipped clinics and hospitals with ad"anced

hih technoloy dianostic and surical eLuipment. Somethin that Americans miht consider as the presidential race heats up, with $edicare on the ta)l e. Such alternati"es hardly please

the powers that )e in ashinton, )ut are increasinly considered in 0atin America. >ut, )ac+ to enery. Mespite the primacy of Eene?uelan oil sales to the *.S.

Caracas is shiftin ears, and China will soon to )ecome Eene?uela7s main trade partner , with oil sales surin percent in 434. Murin a recent inter"iew

Jil $inister 1afael 1amire? said, “e are sellin 5. )arrels o f petrol per day to China.” Bhis i s now eLui"alent to 4/ of Eene?uela7s oil eports to the *.S., up from 5, )arrels perday in Fe)ruary. For those with a sense of history, )efore ;resident Cha"e? too+ office in 3@@@, Eene?uela did not ship oil to China, )ut Cha"e? has stated that )y 43H he intends to ramp upEene?uelan oil eports to China to one million )arrels of crude per day. Accordin to 1amire?, the rise in eports will come from increased production in the natural resource6rich Jrinoco Jil

>elt in the east of the country. &t is hard to see this emphasis shift as anythin )ut a short6sihted diplomatic disaster for the

U(S( Compoundin the deradation of ashinton, which insists that China i n Africa in particular eploits poor n ations )y )uyin resources at roc+ )ottom prices, 1amire? said simply,

Ye are sellin oil to China at a )etter price than what is sold in the *.S. mar+et.' ' And, i"en ashinton7s forein aid stininess, last wee+;resident Cha"e? announced that China Me"elopment >an+ will )an+roll 25 )illion dollars in de"elopment proects, to include housin, enery and industrial rowth. Aain, those with a sense of

history miht note that the year Cha"e? too+ office, Eene?uela eported to the *.S. mar+et 3.H million )pd. So, where does ashinton o from hereR &f itwants to preser"e its increasingl" tenos foothold in a nation with the world7s larest oil reser"es, it miht )ein )yengaging in some honest diplomac"(

China fills in a+sent U(S( engagement in Fene;ela

Arsenalt 15

NChris, Ala?eera, /34/3,Eene?uela loo+s to China for economic )oost, http://www.ala?eera.com/indepth/features/43//[email protected]

As China’s economic and political footprint gro#s across 0atin America and Africa, worryin some andenrichin others, Al"aro 1ui? Sanche? has his e"es on the pri;e. ;resident of JrJctradin, a consultin firm,Sanche? 6 sportin thic+ cufflin+s with the red Chinese fla and a dar+ )la?er 6 has )een teachin Fene;elan

companies a)out doin )usiness with the world7s second6larest economy. “*sually, manfactred goods from

China are coming into Latin America and ra# materials are going ot,” Sanche? told Al <a?eera. “Eene?uelahas posted a positi"e trade )alance with China, )ecause of oil eports, )ut without those we would ha"e a maordeficit.” Brade )etween Eene?uela, holder of the world7s larest oil reser"es, and China rew to 239)n in 433, a456fold increase from 4, reported China Maily, a o"ernment6)ac+ed newspaper. Eene?uela eports more thanH, )arrels of oil to the Asian iant daily, accordin to o"ernment fiures, and plans to increase that to onemillion )y 43H. Bhe two countries had sined )ilateral areements, includin 9 maor proects, accordin to a*ni"ersity of $iami study in 43.As relations +et#een Fene;ela and the US sored in recent years, Eene?uela loo!ed a#a" from its traditional trading partner towards the east ( China cold soon srpass the US as

Eene?uela7s larest tradin partner. Eene?uela's interim ;resident icolas $aduro, who too+ the o) followin thedeath of ;resident -uo Cha"e? on $arch H, held tal+s with Chinese officials o"er the wee+end. YBhe )est tri)utethat we could i"e to our comandante Cha"e? is to deepen our strateic relationship with our )elo"ed China,Y said$aduro, who once ser"ed as Eene?uela7s forein minister. &n a tele"ised meetin with $aduro, Than ;in,chairman of China7s ational Me"elopment and 1eform Commission, said “deepenin relations )etween China andEene?uela” are “the only way to comfort the soul of ;resident -uo Cha"e?”.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuela-Ramps-up-China-Oil-Exports-Unsettling-Washington.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuela-Ramps-up-China-Oil-Exports-Unsettling-Washington.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html



China and the US are competing for Fene;elan mar!ets – one’s gain is the other’s lost

-e Li is ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee in orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. 0i has pu)lisheddo?ens of articles in ournals such as <ournal of Strateic Studies, ;ro)lems of ;ost6Communism, Bhe -istorian,;olicy Studies <ournal, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science, Asian ;erspecti"e, American <ournal of ChineseStudies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo+s. Bhis study is supported )y a Ful)riht scholarship and afaculty de"elopment rant from $errimac+ Collee, 3636$** N“1i"alry )etween Baiwan and the ;1C in 0atinAmerica”, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science8 Sep4H, Eol. 3 &ssue 4, p,http://lin+.spriner.com/content/pdf/3.3/>[email protected], s)haP

Bo date, the Chinese challenes are mainly from the economic arena. %conomically, the Chinese are competing with the *.S. for Eene?uela7s oil eports and mar+et for manufactured products. =i"en the current poor state of*.S.6 Eene?uelan relations under the ChU"e? o"ernment, American o)ser"ers worry that Eene?uelan eneryareements with China ultimately may ser"e to divert oil from the *nited States. 5 hile Eene?uelan eneryofficials ha"e denied this, in Mecem)er 45, ;resident ChU"e? was reported to ha"e referred to Eene?uela7s lonoil6 producin history as “3 years of domination )y the *nited States.” -e asserted that “ow we are free, and

place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland.”



6mpact – Econom"



Chinese Econom" – 1NC

Chinese inflence in the region !e" to the glo+al econom" and regime sta+ilit" – preventing US inflence !e"

Ellis 11

N1. %"an, Assistant ;rofessor of ational Security Studies in the Center for -emispheric Mefense Studies at the ational Mefense *ni"ersity.Chinese Soft ;ower in 0atin America, 3st Luarter 433,http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/imaes/fL6/<FD!9H6@3!%llis.pdf P

Access to 0atin American $ar+ets. 0atin American mar+ets are )ecomin increasinly "alua)le for Chinese companies )ecause theyallow the ;1C to epand and di"ersify its eport )ase at a time when economic rowth is slowin in traditional mar+ets such

as the *nited States and %urope. Bhe reion has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, hiher"alue added products in sectors seen as strateic, such as automo)iles, appliances, computers and telecommunication eLuipment, and aircraft. &n epandinaccess for its products throuh free trade accords with countries such as Chile, ;eru, and Costa 1ica, and penetratin mar+ets in 0atin American countries with

eistin manufacturin sectors such as $eico, >ra?il, and Arentina, the ;1C has often had to o"ercome resistance )y orani?ed and often politically

well6connected esta)lished interests in those nations. &n doin so, the hopes of access to Chinese mar+ets and in"estments amon +ey roups of

)usinesspeople and o"ernment officials in those nations ha"e played a +ey role in the political #ill to overcome the

resistance. &n Eene?uela, it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Eene?uela, Then Buo, was one of the few people in the country who could call;resident ChU"e? on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue arose reardin a Chinese company. ;rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and Brade Flows

from the 1eion. At times, China has applied more eplicit pressures to induce 0atin America to +eep its mar+ets open to Chineseoods. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Arentine and $eican o"ernments that it has seen as protectionist: and, in the case of Arentina, as informalretaliation, China )ean enforcin a lonstandin phytosanitary reulation, causin almost 24 )illion in lost soy eports and other damaes for Arentina.35 China hasalso used its economic weiht to help secure maor proects on preferential terms. &n the course of neotiatin a 23. )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair-ydroelectric plant in %cuador, the a)ility of the Chinese )idder Sino-idro to self6finance 9H percent of the proects throuh Chinese )an+s helped it to wor+ aroundthe traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the proect ha"e a local partner. 0ater, the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro+e off neotiations with theChinese, only to return to the )arainin ta)le 4 months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es. &n Eene?uela, the ChU"e? o"ernment areed, for eample,to accept half of the 24 )illion loaned to it )y the ;1C in Chinese currency, and to use part of that currency to )uy 44@, consumer appliances from the Chinesemanufacturer -aier for resale to the Eene?uelan people. &n another deal, the ;1C loaned Eene?uela 2 million to start a reional airline, )ut as part of the deal,reLuired Eene?uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.3H ;rotection of Chinese ationals. As with the *nited States and other estern countries, asChina )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in 0atin America, an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha?ards common to thereion, such as +idnappin, crime, protests, and related pro)lems. Bhe heihtened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern unle reion of %cuador,for eample, has )een associated with a series of pro)lems, includin the ta+eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in Barapoa in o"em)er4, and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company ;etroriental in 4 that resulted in the death of more than H police officers andforced the declaration of a national state of emerency. &n 45, ethnic Chinese shop+eepers in Ealencia and $aracay, Eene?uela, )ecame the focus of "iolent

protests associated with the Eene?uelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase, the ;1C will need to rely increasinly on a com)ination of

oodwill and fear to deter action aainst its personnel, as #ell as its inflence #ith governments of the region, to resol"e such pro)lems when they occur.Bhe rise of China is intimately tied to the glo+al econom" throuh trade, financial, andinformation flows , each of which is hihly dependent on lo)al institutions and cooperation. >ecause of this, some

within the ;1C leadership see the country7s sstained gro#th and development , and thus the sta+ilit" of the regime,threatened if an actor such as the *nited States is a)le to limit that cooperation or +loc! glo+al instittions from

spporting Chinese interests . &n 0atin America , China7s attainment of o)ser"er status in the JAS in 45 and its acceptance

into the &AM> in 4@ were efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in +ey reional institutions, and to +eep them from )ein used “aainst”Chinese interests . &n addition, the ;1C has le"eraed hopes of access to Chinese mar+ets )y Chile, ;eru, and Costa 1ica to secure

)ilateral free trade areements, whose practical effect is to mo"e Latin America a#a" from a U(S(-dominated

trading +loc! (the Free Brade Area of the Americas# in which the )C #old have +een disadvantaged(

Econ decline cases #ar

./AL 1* Mirector of Cooperati"e Bhreat 1eduction at the *.S. Mepartment of Mefense N<edediah 1oyal, 43, %conomic &nteration, %conomic Sinalin and the ;ro)lem of %conomic Crises, in %conomics of ar and ;eace:%conomic, 0eal and ;olitical ;erspecti"es, ed. =oldsmith and >rauer, p. 43643HP

0ess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li+elihood of eternal conflict . ;olitical scienceliterature has contri)uted a moderate deree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour ofinterdependent stales. 1esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic, dyadic and national le"els. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow.First, on the systemic le"el. ;ollins (493 ad"ances $odcls+i and Bhompson's (3@@# wor+ on leadership cycle theory, findin that rhythmsin the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre6eminent power and the often )loody transitionfrom one pre6eminent leader to the net. As such, eoenous shoc+s such as economic crises could usher in aredistri)ution of relati"e power (see also =ilpin. 3@S<# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances, increas in the ris+of miscalculation (Fcaron. 3@@H#. Alternati"ely, e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"een"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see+ to challene a declinin power (erner. 3@@@#. Separately. ;ollins(3@@# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li+elihood of conflict amon maor, mediumand small powers, althouh he suests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remain





un+nown. Second, on a dyadic le"el. Copeland's (3@@. 4# theory of trade epectations suests that 'future epectation of trade' is asinificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. -e arues that interdependent states arc li+ely to ain

pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. -owe"er, if the epectations of future tradedecline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as enery resources, the li+elihood for conflict increases , asstates will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources. Crises could potentially )e the trier for decreased trade

epectations either on its own or )ecause it triers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent states.5 Bhird, others ha"e considered the lin+ )etween economic decline and eternal armed conflict at a national le"el. $om )er and -ess (44# find a stron

correlation )etween internal conflict and eternal conflict, particularly durin periods of economic downturn. Bheywrite. Bhe lin+ae, )etween internal and eternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin.

%conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the fa"our. $oreo"er, the presence of arecession tends to amplify the etent to which international and eternal conflicts self6reinforce each other (-lomhenR

V -ess. 4(34. p. W@X %conomic decline has also )een lin+ed with an increase in the li+elihood of terrorism (>lom)cr.

-ess. V ee ra pan a, 45#. which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to eternal tensions. Furthermore, crisesenerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment. YMi"ersionary theoryY suests that, when facinunpopularity arisin from economic decline, sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate eternalmilitary conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla' effect . an (3@@#, Mc1oucn (3@@H#, and >lom)cr. -ess, and Bhac+er (4#find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. =elpi (3@@#. $iller (3@@@#. andisanani and ;ic+erin (4@# suest that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states, dueto the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac+ of domestic support. Me1ouen (4#has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea+ economic performance in the *nited States, and thus wea+ ;residential popularity, are

statistically lin+ed lo an increase in the use of force. &n summary, rcccni economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economic

interation with an increase in the freLuency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship lin+seconomic decline with eternal conflict al systemic, dyadic and national le"els.' Bhis implied connection )etween interation, crises andarmed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic6security de)ate and deser"es more attention.

0oes glo+al

amins!i 2 (Antoni T., ;rofessor O &nstitute of ;olitical Studies, “orld Jrder: Bhe $echanics of Bhreats (Central %uropean ;erspecti"e#”, ;olish Duarterlyof &nternational Affairs, 3, p. H9#As already arued, the economic ad"ance of China has ta+en place with relati"ely few correspondin chanes in the political system, althouhthe operation of political and economic institutions has seen some maor chanes. Still, tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of

political and leal foundations for the modem economy, or they are too wea+. Bhe tools are efficient pu)lic administration, the rule of law, clearlydefined ownership rihts, efficient )an+in system, etc. For these reasons, many eperts fear an economic crisis in China. Considerin the

importance of the state for the de"elopment of the lo)al economy, the crisis would ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. &ts politicalramifications could )e no less dramatic owin to the special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system, and the eistence ofmany potential "eed issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the ;acific#. A potential hot)ed of conflictis also Baiwan's status. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili?ation of internal policies could lead to a political, or

e"en military crisis. Bhe li+elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hih, as the interests of 1ussia, China, <apan,Australia and , first and foremost, the *S clash in the reion.



Chinese Econom" – $NC

Disad ot#eighs and trns the case – Chinese econ decline cases glo+al decline and lashot – that’s

amins!i and o"al- prefer or scenario – its gronded in statistical stdies and empirical anal"sis

And – or Ellis evidence indicates it #old collapse the CC) –

Cases +io#eapon se

exing (San, Staff O %poch Bimes, Bhe CC;7s 0ast Mitch =am)le: >ioloical and uclear ar, 96H,http://enlish.epochtimes.com/news/H696H/@H.html#

Since the ;arty7s life is “a)o"e all else,” it would not )e surprisin if the CC; resorts to the use of +iological, che mical, and nclear #eapons in its attempt to etend its life. Bhe CC;, which disreards human life, would not hesitateto +ill two hundred million Americans , alon with se"en or eiht hundred million Chinese, to achie"e its ends. Bhesespeeches let the pu)lic see the CC; for what it really is. ith e"il fillin its e"ery cell the CC; intends to wae a war aainst human+ind in itsdesperate attempt to clin to life. Bhat is the main theme of the speeches. Bhis theme is murderous and utterly e"il. &n China we ha"e seen

)ears who coerced people to i"e them money )y threatenin to sta) themsel"es with +ni"es or pierce their throats with lon nails. >ut weha"e ne"er, until now, seen such a anster who would use )ioloical, chemical, and nuclear weapons to threaten the world, that they will dietoether with him. Bhis )loody confession has confirmed the CC; 7s nature: Bhat of a monstrous murderer who has +illed 9million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one +illion people hostae and am)le with their li"es.

Extinction

Sand+erg et al I1esearch Fellow at the Future of -umanity &nstitute at Jford *ni"ersity. ;hM in computation neuroscience, Stoc+holm IAMI<ason =. $athenyI;hM candidate in -ealth ;olicy and $anaement at <ohns -op+ins. special consultant to the Center for>iosecurity at the *ni"ersity of ;itts)urhIAMI$ilan $. gir+o"iIsenior research associate at the Astronomical J)ser"atory of >elrade.Assistant professor of physics at the *ni"ersity of o"i Sad. (Anders, -ow can we reduce the ris+ of human etinctionR, @ Septem)er 49,http://www.the)ulletin.or/we)6edition/features/how6can6we6reduce6the6ris+6of6human6etinction#

Bhe ris+s from anthropoenic ha?ards appear at present larer than those from natural ones. Althouh reat proress has )een made in reducinthe num)er of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened )y the possi)ility of a lo)al thermonuclear war and a resultin nuclearwinter. e may face e"en reater ris+s from emerin technoloies. Ad"ances in synthetic )ioloy miht ma+e it

possi)le to enineer pathoens capa)le of etinction6le"el pandemics. Bhe +nowlede, eLuipment, and materials needed to enineer

pathoens are more accessi)le than those needed to )uild nuclear weapons. And unli+e other weapons, pathoens are self6replicatin, allowin a small arsenal to )ecome eponentially destructi"e. ;athoens ha"e )een implicated in the etinctions of

many wild species. Althouh most pandemics Yfade outY )y reducin the density of suscepti)le populations, pathoens with widehost ranes in multiple species can reach e"en isolated indi"iduals. Bhe intentional or unintentional release of enineered

pathoens with hih transmissi)ility, latency, and lethality miht )e capa)le of causin human etinction. hile such an e"ent

seems unli+ely today, the li+elihood may increase as )iotechnoloies continue to impro"e at a rate ri"alin $oore's 0aw.



A$ Collapse Doesn’t 0o Nclear

0oes nclear

erlini 11NCesare $erlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the *nited States and %urope and chairman of the >oard of Brustees of the &talian&nstitute for &nternational Affairs (&A&# in 1ome. -e ser"ed as &A& president from 3@@ to 43. *ntil 4@, he also occupied the position of

eecuti"e "ice chairman of the Council for the *nited States and &taly, which he co6founded in 3@9. -is areas of epertise include transatlanticrelations, %uropean interation and nuclear non6proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technoloy. A ;ost6Secular orldRMJ&: 3.39/@9.433.H33H Article 1eLuests: Jrder 1eprints : 1eLuest ;ermissions ;u)lished in: ournal Sur"i"al, Eolume H, &ssue 4April 433 , paes 33 6 3 ;u)lication FreLuency: issues per year Mownload ;MF Mownload ;MF (H ># Eiew 1elated Articles Bocite this Article: $erlini, Cesare 'A ;ost6Secular orldR', Sur"i"al, H:4, 33 O 3P

Bwo neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the rane of possi)ilities, al)eit at the ris+ of o"ersimplification. Bhe first scenario entails the premature crum)lin of the post6estphalian system. Jneor more of the acute tensions apparent today e"ol"es into an open and traditional conflict )etween states, perhapse"en involving the se of nclear #eapons . Bhe crisis miht )e triered )y a collapse of the lo)al economic and financial system, the "ulnera)ility of

which we ha"e ust eperienced, and the prospect of a second =reat Mepression, with conseLuences for peace and democracy similar to those of thefirst. hate"er the trier, the unlimited eercise of national so"ereinty, eclusi"e self6interest and reection of outside interference would li+ely )e amplified, emptyin, perhaps entirely, the half6full lass of multilateralism,

includin the * and the %uropean *nion. $any of the more li+ely conflicts, such as )etween &srael and &ran or &ndia and ;a+istan, ha"e potential reliious dimensions. Short of war, tensions such as those related to

immiration miht )ecome un)eara)le . Familiar issues of creed and identity could )e eacer)ated. Jne way or another, the secularrational approach #old +e sidestepped )y a return to theocratic a)solutes, competin or con"erin with secular

a)solutes such as un)ridled nationalism.



Ext – China Collapse Escalates

Economic gro#th prevents CC) lash ot

Susan Shir! (director of the *ni"ersity of California system6wide &nstitute on =lo)al Conflict and Cooperation#and -o $iu Lam (professor of China and ;acific 1elations at &1/;S and Meputy Assistant Secretary of State in the>ureau of %ast Asia and ;acific Affairs# $**2 Fraile ChinaAs China7s leaders well +now, the reatest political ris+ lyin ahead of them is the possi)ility of an economic crashthat throws millions of wor+ers ot of their &o+s or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their sa"ins from thesha+y )an+in system. A massi"e en"ironmental or pu)lic health disaster could also trigger regime collapse,especially if people7s li"es are endanered )y a media co"er6up imposed )y ;arty authorities. ationwide re)ellion

)ecomes a real possi+ilit" when lare num)ers of people are upset a)out the same issue at the same time . Anotherdanerous scenario is a domestic or international crisis in #hich the CC) leaders feel compelled to lash ot aainst <apan, Baiwan, or the *nited States )ecause from their point of "iew not lashin out miht endaner ;artyrule.”



Ext – Latin America $ Econ

Latin America !e" to China’s econom"- trade and resorces

Giang $**2

NShiue <ian, Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of 0atin American Studies (&0AS# of the Chinese Academy of SocialSciencesBhree Factors in the 1ecent Me"elopment of Sino60atin American 1elations, %B%1 B-% M1A=JRChina7s ;resence in 0atin America, 4, http://www.wilsoncenter.or/sites/default/files/%nterMraonFinal.pdf P

Chinese achie"ements in the realm of reform and openin to the outside world ha"e )een impressi"e. >ut there are

pro)lems. First of all, China is facin increasin friction with the de"eloped countries, which ha"e freLuently used anti6dumpin

practices and other means to restrict Chinese eports. From time to time, the *nited States uses economic leverage to eert political pressure on China. Bherefore, it is imperati"e for China to reduce economic dependence upon the *nited States

and other de"eloped countries. Bo reali?e this oal, China needs to diversif" its trade partners. &n this reard, 0atinAmerica, a continent with a population of more than H million people and an economic si?e of more than *S24 trillion, is certainly a )imar+et for Chinese products. Second, while China is a nation with a reat amount of natural resources, )ecause of its hue population,China is also lac!ing resorces in terms of per capita distri)ution. Consider forest area and tim)er, for eample. Accordin to recentstatistics, China7s forest area is 3.4 million sLuare +ilometers, and tim)er resources are a)out 3 )illion cu)ic meters. Bhese two a)solutenum)ers are hue compared to many other countries in the world. >ut in per capita terms, China7s forest area is merely .3 hectares, and tim)erresources are less than 3 cu)ic meters, as compared with the world a"erae of 3. hectares and 9 cu)ic meters, respecti"ely. Accordin to a

report pu)lished in 4, China7s per capita reser"es of coal, oil and as are only percent, 33 percent, and 5 percent ofthe world a"erae.3 Jn the one hand, the nation should ma+e strenuous efforts to uprade the efZ ciency of usin its resources8 on the other,

it needs to locate supplies from a)road. 0atin America is the perfect place from which China can import many +indsof needed resources. Additionally, the importance of 0atin America oes )eyond the economic area. ;olitically spea+in, 0atin Americacould )e a partner for China and other de"elopin countries in their efforts to oppose heemony, esta)lish a ust world order, and a

harmonious world. >oth 0atin America and China share many common or similar positions towards some of the maorinternational issues. Also noteworthy is the fact that in the *nited ations, each country enoys one "ote, and China has the potentialto win support from 0atin American countries on many issues.

0atin America is +ey to the Chinese economy6ew mar+ets are necessaryEllis *J

(1. %"an %llis, is a professor of national security studies, modelin, amin, and simulation with the Center for

-emispheric Mefense Studies, with a research focus on 0atin America7s relationships with eternal actors, includinChina, 1ussia, and &ran, Bhe ew Chinese %naement ith 0atin America: *nderstandin &ts Mynamics and the&mplications for the 1eion, Air and Space ;ower <ournal, @/43/,http://www.airpower.mawell.af.mil/apinternational/ap6s/4/tri/ellisen.html#Althouh China is a lare and resource6rich nation, rapid and sustained Chinese economic rowth o"er the past 4years has enerated le"els of demand for raw materials that eceed what it can produce domestically or o)tainwithin Asia( Since 3@@, the Chinese economy has rown at an a"erae rate of @.[, includin a 3.3[ rate of rowth in 45, and a forecastrate of @.@[ in 4. $oreo"er, the current (33th# Chinese H6Gear ;lan concentrates resources on etendin industriali?ation to the nation7s

interior. Bhe resultin dedication of resources on fied capital formation further auments Chinese resourceconsumption( Althouh China only accounts for 5.5[ of lo)al =;, for eample, the nation consumes .5[ of the world7s oil, 3[ of the

world7s coal, [ of the world7s iron, 4[ of the world7s rolled steel, and 5[ of the world7s cement. Jn the supply side, China hassimply )een una)le to +eep up with demand in +ey sectors such as petroleum and selected metals, despite am)itiouseploration efforts and in"estment in capacity epansion. Chinese ariculture has )een limited, for eample, )y inefficiency, limitsin suita)le terrain, and encroachment )y de"elopers on traditional aricultural lands. From 43 to 4H, for eample, Chinese demand for

soy)ean oil dou)led. hile the story is slihtly different in each sector, the com)ination of demand rowth and supply limitations has )een aneplosi"e rowth in Chinese imports of a wide rane of lo)al commodities. &n the first 33 months of 4H, for eample, China reported that itimported 23. )illion in primary products, representin a 4.4[ increase o"er the same period in 45. ithin this cateory, Chinese importsof fuel products increased )y H[, while minerals and metal imports increased )y 4.3[. China7s increasinly acute need to importthe resources that it reLuires to sustain its hih rates of economic rowth not only has increased its demands on itscurrent networ+ of suppliers, )ut has prompted it to enae in an e"er6)roader search to secure future sources ofsupply. Bhis Luest has led China not only into new forms of economic and political enaement with 0atin America,

)ut also in Africa, the $iddle %ast, and other parts of the world. Althouh China7s other lo)al initiati"es are also important, ithas a particularly stron interest in 0atin America )ecause the reion is oriented to eport sinificant Luantities of a

)road rane of primary products that China needs to sustain its economic rowth.





0atin America is +ey to the Chinese economy%lac!more 15(%mma >lac+more is a researcher in the Sustaina)le $ar+ets =roup at &&%M, 1eport scopes sustaina)ility of China60atin America relations,&nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and Me"lopment, H/@/3, http://www.iied.or/report6scopes6sustaina)ility6china6latin6america6relations#A report pu)lished today )y the &nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and Me"elopment, says sustaina)ility is increasinly on the aenda

in trade and in"estment relations )etween the two reions, and that Chinese companies are showin sins of learninfrom the pre"ious mista+es they7"e made in international in"estments. Bhe discussion paper uses primary and secondary data sources

and inter"iews with sta+eholders to eamine Chinese trade and in"estment in minin, ariculture and forestry in Chile, >ra?il and ;eru. &t shows howcomple interactions )etween reulations, shareholder and in"estor demands, consumer preferences and ci"ilsociety pressure shape the sustaina)ility of these new relationships. YChina7s demand for materials O from tim)erand minerals to soy)eans, its desire to access new mar+ets and its stratey of south6south cooperation and Qsoft

power7 diplomacy are dri"in a )oom in trade and in"estment that will ha"e important implications for thesustaina)ility of natural resource de"elopment in the reion,Y says %mma >lac+more, the report7s lead author. YBo satisfy thedemands of in"estors, consumers and other sta+eholders, )usinesses in"ol"ed in this trade increasinly applyinternational standards that aim to ensure sustaina)le, accounta)le operations.Y



Chinese .il – $NC

Specificall" – !e" to Chinese oil secrit"

Cerna 11

N$ichael, China 1esearch Center, China's =rowin ;resence in 0atin America: &mplications for *.S. and Chinese;resence in the 1eion, 5/3H/33, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas6rowin6presence6in6latin6america6implications6for6u6s6and6chinese6presence6in6the6reion/P

China7s thirst for natural resources has sent the country in search of sstaina+le spplies of oil , soy and iron ore. &n SouthAmerica, China has found some of the most well6endowed partners in the world. China is de"ourin 0atin Americancommodities and eyein a mar+et of H million people. “Countries in South America ha"e ara)le land and need or technolog" and

investment, and they welcome our companies. &t7s a win6win solution,” said an Gun+un, deputy director of the Ariculture and 1ural AffairsCommittee of the ational ;eople7s Conress, as reported )y $erco;ress. &n 4, more than [ of Chile7s total eports were directed toward Asia, with Chinata+in 34[ of the total. Chile was the first 0atin American country to complete a maor )ilateral trade areement with China (Santiso, 4#. Since then China hasloo+ed )eyond Chile, also taretin >ra?il, Eene?uela, %cuador, Arentina and ;eru. &n 4@, China )ecame >ra?il7s larest sinle eport mar+et, eclipsin the *.S.for the first time in history. 0ater, >ra?il7s then6president, 0ui? &nacio 0ula da Sil"a, and his Chinese counterpart, -u <intao, sined an areement that allowed theChina Me"elopment >an+ and Sinopec to loan >ra?il7s state6controlled oil company, ;etro)ras, 23 )illion in return for as many as 4, )arrels a day of crude oil

for ten years (%conomist, 4@#. Bhis is )ut one eample of how China is sei?in lendin opportunities in 0atin America when traditionallenders such as the &nter6American Me"elopment >an+ are )ein pushed to their limits. “<ust one of China7s loans, the 23 )illion for >ra?il7s national oil company, isalmost as much as the 233.4 )illion in all appro"ed financin )y the &nter6American >an+ in 49,” accordin to Bhe ew Gor+ Bimes. &t was not only in >ra?il that

China went after oil. &n order to meet risin industrial needs and consumer demand, China has pursued in"estments and

areements with a "ariety of 0atin American oil producers. &n 4 Eene?uela areed to a 2 )illion oint in"estment fundfor infrastructure proects at home and for oil refineries in China a )le to process Eene?uelan hea"y crude oil (Santiso, 4#.

Eene?uela planned to increase oil eports to China )y , )arrels per day. Bhen in 4@, Eene?uela announced a 23 )illion in"estment deal with

the Chinese ational ;etroleum Corporation (C;C# for oil eploration in the Jrinoco 1i"er to de"elop hea"y crude oil resources

(%conomist, 4@#. $eanwhile, the C;C has in"ested 2 million in technoloy to use Eene?uela7s Jrimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants. Bhiseemplifies Eene?uela7s desire to +rea! a#a" from the U(S . Murin a "isit to China in 45, ;resident Cha"e? said shiftineports to China would help end dependency on sales to the *nited States (<ohnson, 4H#.

Chinese energ" insecrit" cases Asia #ar

%randen+rg , /45/$*11 (Colonel <ames A. O *nited States Air Force, China7s %nery &nsecurity and the SouthChina Sea Mispute, *SAC Stratey 1esearch ;roect, p. 6#&n 43, China reasserted ownership to nearly 9 percent of the S outh China Sea, supplementin its claims to the Spratly and;aracel &slands. For China and its neih)ors, territorial ownership is integral to state so"ereinty and security . -owe"er,

o"erlappin %%Ts, disputes o"er ownership of the Spratly and ;aracel &slands, and China7s mercantilist approach to securinresources stand to raise the energ" secrit" sta!es of interested parties inclding the US.3 Feelins of insecurity ofthose with competin interests in either the %%T or the Spratly or ;aracel &slands could pro"e challenin especially if China epands its offshore

production of oil/natural as and etends its control o"er the "essels or pipelines that deli"er them "ia the South China Sea. %perts suestenery shortaes pro"ide the necessar" catal"st for arms races, nclear proliferation, and other forms of

insta+ilit"K in essence, greater energ" insecrit" e9ates to the greater pro+a+ilit" of geopolitical rivalr" .3 0i+ethe *S, as China )ecomes more dependent on oil imports, its a)ility to ensure access to enery at an afforda)le price )ecomes e"en more criticaland could pro"e difficult i"en increasin lo)al mar+et uncertainty. *ltimately, China7s dependence on imports could lead to avicios c"cle as it strules to find ways to mitiate ris+s and protect its in"estments in order to offset itsinsecurity.39 =i"en lo)al dependence on China7s economy and the potential impact of shrin+in enery supplies, this warrants specialconsideration in the eo6political realm.

0oes nclear

Cirincione $*** (<oseph, Mirector of the on6;roliferation ;roect O C%&;, Forein ;olicy, 644, 0eis#

Bhe )loc+s would fall Luic+est and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already )uildin more Luic+ly than anywhere else in theworld. &f a nuclear +rea!ot ta+es place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that ha"e )een

painsta+inly neotiated o"er the past 5 years will crum)le. $oreo"er, the *nited States could find itself em)roiled in its fourth

war on the Asian continent in si decades66a costly re)u+e to those who see+ the safety of Fortress America )y hidin )ehind national missile

defenses. Consider what is already happenin: orth orea continues to play uessin ames with its nuclear and missile prorams8

South orea wants its own missiles to match ;yonyan's8 6ndia and )a!istan shoot across )orders while runnin a slow6motion

nuclear arms race8 China moderni?es its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Baiwan and the *nited States8 <apan's "ice defense

minister is forced to resin after etollin the )enefits of nuclear weapons8 and 1ussia66whose Far %ast nuclear deployments alone ma+e it the

larest Asian nuclear power66strules to maintain territorial coherence. Fi"e of these states ha"e nuclear weapons8 the others

are capa)le of constructin them. 0i+e neutrons firin from a split atom, one nation's actions can trier reactions throuhout the







reion, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. Bhese nations form an interloc+in Asian nuclear reaction chain that"i)rates danerously with each new de"elopment. &f the freLuency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions ta+en

)y any one of these o"ernments could cascade into the second great #ave of nuclear6weapon proliferation, )rinin reional

and glo+al economic and political insta+ilit" and , perhaps, the first com)at se of a nclear #eapon since 3@5H.



Ext – China .il 6=L

China ta!ing advantage of lo# U(S( commitment no# – !e" to energ" secrit"

Horero *

N<uan, ew Gor+ Bimes, China's oil diplomacy lures 0atin America, /4/H,http://www.nytimes.com/4H//3/)usiness/world)usiness/3iht6oil.htmlRpaewanted\allV!r\P

0atin America is )ecomin a rich destination in China?s glo+al 9est for energ", with the Chinese sinin accords with Eene?uela,in"estin in larely untapped mar+ets li +e ;eru and eplorin possi)ilities in >oli"ia and Colom)ia. China's sihts are focused mostly on Eene?uela, which ships more than percent of its

crude oil to the *nited States. ith hue oil reser"es and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its enery )usiness, Eene?uela has emered asan o)"ious contender for >eiin's attention. Eice ;resident Ten Dinhon of China, accompanied )y a deleation of 34H officials and )usinessmen, sined 3@ cooperationareements with the Eene?uelan leader, -uo Cha"e?, in Caracas late in <anuary. Bhe areements included lon6rane plans for Chinese sta+es in oil and as fields that are now mostlyconsidered marinal )ut which could )ecome "alua)le with )i in"estments. Mespite tensions )etween Cha"e? and the >ush administration, Eene?uela remains a maor source for American oilcompanies, one of four main pro"iders of imported crude oil to the *nited States. Analysts and Eene?uelan o"ernment officials say that tie will not )e se"ered, as Eene?uela is a relati"ely shorttan+er trip from the *nited States. YBhe *ni ted States should not )e concerned,Y 1afael 1amire?, Eene?uela's enery minister, said in an inter"iew. YBhis epansion in no way means that we will

)e withdrawin from the orth American mar+et for political reasons.Y Still, China's "oracious economy is an attracti"e mar+et for Eene?uela and other

South American enery producers. YBhe Chinese are enterin without political epectations or demands,Y said 1oer Bissot, an analyst who e"aluates political and

economic ris+s in leadin oil6producin countries for ;FC %nery =roup in ashinton. YBhey ust say, '&'m comin here to in"est,' and they can in"est )illions of dollars. And o)"iously, as a country with )illions t o in"est, they are ta+en "ery seriously.Y China's entry is worrisome to some American enery officials, especially )ecause the *nited States is )ecomin more dependent on forein oil at a time when forein reser"es remain tiht. &t was fear of supply shortaes that pushed a )arrel of oil to 2HH in Jcto)er,dri"in up retail prices and hurtin economies. Jn Buesday, crude oil for April deli"ery was at 2H3.@ a )arrel in premar+et tradin on the ew Gor+ $ercantile %chane. Bhe *.S. SenateForein 1elations Committee, headed )y 1ichard 0uar, 1epu)lican of &ndiana, recently as+ed the =o"ernment Accounta)ility Jffice to eamine continency plans should Eene?uelan oil stop

flowin. Chinese interest in Eene?uela, a senior committee aide said, nderlined >ashington?s lac! of attention to Latin America( YFor

years and years, the hemisphere has )een a low priority for the *.S., and the Chinese are ta!ing advantage of it,Y the aide said,

spea+in on condition of anonymity. YBhey're ta+in ad"antae of the fact that #e don?t care as mch as #e shold a+ot Latin

America.Y China, the world's second6larest consumer of oil, is already a leadin competitor to the *nited States in its glo+al search for oil, as andminerals 6 nota)ly in Central Asia, the $iddle %ast and Africa. China accounted for 5 percent o f lo)al rowth in oil demand in the last four years, accordin to the *.S. %nery Mepartment,and its consumption in 4 years is proected to rise to 34.9 million )arrels a day from H.H million )arrels now. Bhe *nited States now uses 4.5 million )arrels a day, nearly 34 million of them

imported. Chinese companies, which ha"e su)stantial o"ernment help, can dispense government aid to secre deals, ta+e ad"antae of lower costsin China and draw on hefty credit lines from the o"ernment and Chinese financial instit utions to compete with *.S. and other ri"als. YBhese companies tend to ma+e uneconomic )ids, useChinese state )ilateral loans and financin, and spend wildly,Y Fran+ Eerrastro, director and a senior fellow at the Center for Strateic and &nternational Studies in ashinton, told the Senate

%nery Committee early in Fe)ruary. YChinese investors prse mar!et and strategic o+&ectives, rather than commercial ones.Y Chinaalready operates two oil fields in Eene?uela. *nder accords sined in >eiin in Mecem)er and in Caracas in <anuary, it would de"elop 3H declininfields in Tumano in eastern Eene?uela, )uy 34, )arrels of fuel oil a month and )uild a plant in Eene?uela to produce fuel for Chinese power plants. %nery analysts saythese deals, thouh mostly marinal, show that China is willin to wade in slowly, with larger am+itions in mind . YBhese aresteps you ha"e to ta+e to ha"e a longer-term relationship ,Y said 0arry =oldstein, president o f the ;etroleum &ndustry 1esearch Foundation in ew Gor+.

Ye don't +now enouh a)out whether they will lead to larer proects, )ut m" sense is that the" #ill(@ *nder the

areements, Eene?uela has in"ited China to participate in promisin proects li+e eplorin for oil in the Jrinoco )elt, which has one of the world's reat deposits of crude oil, and searchin fornatural as offshore 6 where Eene?uela hopes to )e a world competitor. Analysts say that part of China's effort is to learn a)out Eene?uelan technoloy, particularly the wor+ins of i ts hea"y6oil

refineries. $uch of the oil that will )e eploited in the future will )e tarli+e, reLuirin an intricate and epensi"e refinin process. &n return, China is offerin the Eene?uelans a

2 million credit line to )uild housin, aid that helps Cha"e? in his oal of liftin his compatriots out of po"erty. Y&t's a country that permits you to et more out of areementsthan ust enery accords,Y >ernardo Al"are?, Eene?uela's am)assador to the *nited States, said of China. Eene?uela, with a "iew to eports to China, says i t is eplorin plans to re)uild a;anamanian pipeline to pump crude oil to the ;acific. Another proposal would lead to the construction of a pipeline from Eene?uela to Colom)ia's ;acific ports. Cha"e? has promoted these plansin three "isits to China. &n the most recent, in Mecem)er, he un"eiled a statue of Simon >oli"ar in >eiin. Brade )etween the two countries could rise to 2 )illion this y ear from 23.4 )illion,Cha"e? said. Ye ha"e )een producin and eportin oil for more than 3 years,Y Cha"e? told Chinese )usinessmen in Mecem)er. Y>ut these ha"e )een 3 years o f domination )y the *nited

States. ow we are free, and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland.Y China, thouh, is not ust interested in Eene?uela. $uch of 0atin America has )ecome crcial to its need for ra# materials and mar+ets, with trade at 24.9H )illion in the first 3 months of 45, a)out H percent more than in

4. $inin, analysts say, is amon China's priorities, whether it is oil in Eene?uela, tin in Chile or as in >oli"ia. Chinese in"ol"ement in 0atin America is@gro#ing +" leaps and +onds,@ said %duardo =amarra, director of the 0atin America and Cari))ean Center at Florida &nternational *ni"ersity.

Chinese economic ties !e" to .il imports

Herchen 1$

N$att, 1%S&M%B SC-J0A1 CA1%=&%6BS&=-*A C%B%1 FJ1 =0J>A0 ;J0&CG, China7s 0atin American &nterests, 5//34,http://carneieendowment.or/434/5//china6s6latin6american6interests/aa"P

China60atin America relations, especially economic ties, ha"e +oomed in the last decade. >etween 4 and 43 China60atin

America trade epanded o"er 3,H percent, and )etween 49 and 43 alone China7s in"estment in the reion epanded more than39 percent. Bhis )oom in economic relations has )een primarily dri"en )y stron Chinese demand for South American

mineral, aricultural, and enery resources li+e copper, iron ore, soy)eans, and oil. At the same time, 0atin America has )ecome an

important destination for increasin amounts of Chinese manufactured6ood eports ranin from modems to motorcycles. hile there are

other dimensions to the 0atin America6China relationship, includin a history of Chinese immiration to countries li+e Cu)a and ;eru, the recent decade6

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/01/business/worldbusiness/01iht-oil.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/01/business/worldbusiness/01iht-oil.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0




lon sure in relations has )een primarily dri"en )y trade and investment ties( Bhouh those ties ha"e also underpinned

renewed and strenthened diplomatic relations )etween China and countries throuhout the reion, the main )indin force remains economic

rather than political or ideoloical. Bhis has fueled a miture of risin hopes and anieties amon o"ernment and )usiness leaders in 0atin America. Bhe hopesride on e"er6epandin trade and in"estment lin+s as well as the possi)ility that China miht pro"e to )e a positi"e alternati"e to lon6

standin American economic and political power in the reion. Anieties are rooted in concerns that the reion7s ties to China repeat dysfunctional

historical patterns of commodity dependence and a “hollowin out” of local industry in the face of Chinese manufacturin and eport prowess. Bhe main )eneficiaries of the )oom in economic relations ha"e )een a small num)er of commodity6rich South American countries. &n particular, inrecent years China has )ecome the num)er6one tradin partner (includin eports and imports# for >ra?il, Chile, and ;eru and the num)er6two tradin partner forArentina. ithin the last two years China has also Luic+ly leapt to )ecome the num)er6one source of forein direct in"estment in >ra?il and ;eru. &n order to further

solidify trade ties to +ey ;acific coast tradin partners, China has also sined free trade areements with Chile, ;eru, and more recently Costa 1ica. At the same time ,China has made sinificant enery deals, for oil in particlar , with countries li+e Eene?uela, %cuador, and >ra?il. Some 0atin American

leaders ha"e reached out to China in an effort to de"elop more etensi"e political ties. 0eft6leanin political leaders from Cu)a andEene?uela to %cuador and >oli"ia ha"e all emphasi?ed the importance of shared socialist "alues with China, e"en if China has )een careful to downplay the

ideoloical aspects of these relationships. China has, howe"er, +een eager to cooperate with its fellow >1&C mem)er, >ra?il, in leadin multilateral

calls for re"isions to the international financial system in the wa+e of the 49O@ financial crisis. -ope remains that China will continue to eploreincreased in"estment opportunities in $eico (and also possi)ly in ;anama and Colom)ia, with whom the *nited States recently sined free tradeareements# in order to le"erae the )enefits of proimity to orth American eport mar+ets. As the second6larest economy in 0atin America, thus far $eico has )een a +ey countereample to the South American trend of )oomin commodity eports to China. &nstead, the $eican economy has )een challened not only )y aneati"e trade )alance with China )ut also )y increased Chinese competition for eports to +ey orth American mar+ets.

Latin American oil !e" to Chinese energ" secrit":iaoxia =J (an Wiaoia, economic o)ser"er, & A$%1&CA'S >ACGA1M: C-&A'S 1&S&= &F0*%C% & 0AB& A$%1&CA,orldcrunch, H//43, http://www.worldcrunch.com/china64./in6america6@6s6)ac+yard6china6@6s6risin6influence6in6latin6america/forein6policy6trade6economy6in"estments6enery/c@s335/#&nitially, China7s acti"ities in 0atin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. >y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions,China manaed to interrupt diplomatic ties )etween poor 0atin countries and Baiwan. Since then, with China's economic )oom, thesupply of enery and resources has radually )ecome a pro)lem that plaues China 66 and its echanes with 0atinAmerica thus are endowed with real su)stanti"e purpo se. Amon the numerous needs of China, the demand for oilhas always )een the most powerful dri"in force . &n the past years, China has consumed one6third of the world's newoil production and )ecome the world's second6larest oil importer. $ore than half of China's oil demand depends onimports, which increases the insta)ility of its enery security. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le. &n this contet, 0atin America andits hue reser"es and production capacity naturally )ecame a destination for China.

Latin America is critical to the Chinese goal of energ" secrit"

7ong+o 1$(Sun -on)o is associate professor at the &nstitute of 0atin American Studies (&0AS# of China7s Academy of Social Sciences, Bhe draon7soil politics in 0atin America, &&AS, inter 434, http://www.iias.nl/sites/default/files/&&AS!04!.pdf#Bhe China60atin American relationship has numerous strateic implications in the current international political and economic power

transformation, where)y the world7s economic centre of ra"ity is radually shiftin towards the emerin economies. ;articularly, the enery6related ties )etween China and 0atin America ha"e one throuh reat de"elopments within the oil and asintra6industry colla)orations, includin crude oil trade, in"estments, loans6for6oil, technical eLuipment purchases,merers and acLuisitions, etc. ithout a dou)t, the Sino60atin American enery cooperation is a sinificantaspect of the emerin new enery order currently witnessed in the estern -emisphere. C-&A7S ;artner Countriesin this reion include Eene?uela, >ra?il, %cuador, $eico, Cu)a, Costa rica, ;eru, Arentina and Colum)ia, with the first three of thosecountries in"ol"ed in nearly 9[ of the Chinese oil6lin+ed proects. ;olitically, China7s a)o"e6mentioned partners rane widely from the leftto the riht of the spectrum. ith respect to their style of stratey, Chinese oil companies in 0atin America are often descri)ed )y media and

scholars as aressi"e, ris+6lo"in and opportunistic. Chinese oil companies made opportune use of three sinificantoccurrences in the 0atin American countries (0AC#: the open hydrocar)on industry and pri"ati?ation in the 3@@7s,

the nationali?ation )y leftwin o"ernments (464#, and the international financial crisis (496433#. &n 3@@, C;C, one of China7s national oil companies, won eploration rihts in ;eru8 it pro"ed to )e a milestone for China7s enery cooperation with

0AC. &n addition to a lare num)er of loan6for6oil deals with Eene?uela, >ra?il and %cuador, in 43, thirteen new )i deals were made )y Chinese oil companies in 0AC, includin the merers and acLuisitions of the reional assets of international oil companies such as repsol, ;an American %nery, and Jccidental ;etroleum. 0AC in itself

cannot safeuard China7s enery security. -owe"er, China reards 0AC as a potential reion to di"ersify her crude oil import. Accordinto the >; Statistical re"iew of orld %nery, China imported 4H. million tons of crude oil from 0AC in 43,accountin for 9. percent of Chinese lo)al imports and 3 percent of 0atin American world eports. Ba+in intoconsideration the new offshore disco"eries in >ra?il and the hue pro"en reser"es in Eene?uela, without a dou)t,the two countries could )e "iewed in the future as China7s and &ndia7s sustaina)le strateic crude oil suppliers. &t



should )e emphasi?ed that the "olume of oil trade )etween Asian countries and 0AC has )een steadily risin. From45 to 43, 0AC7s oil eport to Asia increased from 5.9 percent to 39.9 percent of its total lo)al eport. China7s Q=oin =lo)alStratey7 Bhe uarantee of enery security, and the Chinese national Q=oin =lo)al Stratey7, which encouraesnational enterprises to in"est o"erseas, are fundamental factors hihly interated into Chinese policy towards0atin America. A new trend emerin from this situation is the increased cooperation )etween financialorani?ations and national oil companies. Bheir commercial patterns in 0AC can )e summed up with se"en +eyfields of cooperation: 3# crude oil trade, 4# technical ser"ices, # oint de"elopment, 5# infrastructure6)uildin

participation, H# loan6for6oil, # hea"y technical eLuipment transactions, # )io6fuels technoloy oint research.



Ext – China >ar

Energ" is the core isse of island disptes

Gac!son, 3/3/$*15 (Allison, Bhe Sen+a+u &slands Mispute &s Forcin <apan to 1ethin+ -ow &t Brades ith theorld, >usiness &nsider, p. http://www.)usinessinsider.com/diaoyu6dispute6hurts6sino6apanese6trade64363#

e"ertheless, the dispute o"er the islands will continue to cause political and economic headaches for China and <apan,with neither acting to defse the tensions. A)e warned recently that there was “ no room for negotiations” withChina o"er the islands. “$y resol"e to defend our waters and territories has not chaned at all,” the haw+ish A)e said, accordin to Bhe Maily

Gomiuri, shortly after announcin the first increase in <apanese defense spendin in more than a decade. Bhe Chinese also ha"e ta+en ahard line. 0ast wee+, an editorial in the state6controlled =lo)al Bimes warned its readers to “prepare for the worst” and said the Chinese

military “shouldn7t )e hesitant to ta+e military re"ene” in response to <apanese pro"ocations. A miture of historical animosity, self6ser"in politics and energ" secrit" is feling the dispte . As the *S increases its strateic enaement in the Asia6;acific

reion, China is eaer to use the spat with <apan as an opportunity to show off its strenth and )oost its influence in the reion. >ut enery andthe control of potentially lare hydrocar)on reser"es are at the core of the dispte which ensures lastin tensions

)etween Asia7s economic iants. “Bhey will i"e you a lon, historical eplanation of their so"ereinty claim. >utthe idea that there are "ast resources under the %ast China Sea ust off their coast is a tremendos motivation for theintensit" of their territorial dispute,” Sheila Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Forein 1 elations in ashinton, M.C,

told ational =eoraphic late last year.

'he" escalate(Aslin, 3/49/$*15 ($ichael O scholar at the American %nterprise &nstitute, Bhe Sino6<apanese Standoff, ational1e"iew, p. http://www.nationalre"iew.com/articles/99H4/sinondashapanese6standoff6michael6auslinRp\4#Bhis SinoO<apanese standoff also is a pro)lem for the *nited States, which has a defense treaty with Bo+yo and is pleded to come to the aid of <apanese forces underattac+. Bhere are also mechanisms for *.S.O<apanese consultations durin a crisis, and if Bo+yo reLuests such military tal+s, ashinton would )e forced into adifficult spot, since >eiin would undou)tedly percei"e the holdin of such tal+s as a serious pro"ocation. Bhe J)ama administration has so far ta+en pains to stayneutral in the dispute8 despite its rhetoric of “pi"otin” to the ;acific, it has ured )oth sides to resol"e the issue peacefully. ashinton also has a"oided any stanceon the so"ereinty of the Sen+a+us, supportin instead the status Luo of <apanese administration of the islands. Bhat may no loner suffice for <apan, howe"er, since

its o"ernment saw China7s ta+in to the air o"er the Sen+a+us as a sinificant escalation and proof that >eiin is in no mind to )ac+ down from its claims. .ne

does not have to +e an alarmist to see real dangers in pla" here . As >ar)ara Buchman showed in her classic Bhe =uns of Auust,

e"ents ha"e a way of ta+in on a life of their own (and one doesn7t need a Schlieffen ;lan to feel trapped into actin#. Bhe enmity )etween <apan andChina is deep and pervasive8 there is little good #ill to tr" and avert conflict . &ndeed, the people of )oth countries ha"ea+"small" lo# perceptions of the other . Since they are the two most ad"anced militaries in Asia, any tension 6dri"en military oc+eyin )etween them is inherentl" desta+ili;ing to the entire reion . ;erhaps of e"en reater concern,

neither o"ernment has shied a#a" from its hardline tactics o"er the Sen+a+us, despite the fact that trade

+et#een the t#o has dropped nearl" < percent since the crisis )ean in Septem)er. $ost worryin, if the two sides don7t aree to return to the

status Luo ante, there are only one or t#o more rng s on the ladder of military escalation )efore someone has to )ac+ down

or decide to initiate hostilities when challened. hoe"er does )ac+ down will lose an enormos amont of credi+ilit" in

Asia, and the possi)ility of ma&or domestic demonstrations in response. Bhe prospect of an armed clash )etweenAsia7s two larest countries is one that should )rin )oth sides to their senses, )ut instead the two seem to )emaneu"erin themsel"es into a corner from which it will )e difficlt to escape . Jne trier6happy or ner"ous pilot, andAsia could face its gravest crisis perhaps since orld ar &&.

http://www.businessinsider.com/diaoyu-dispute-hurts-sino-japanese-trade-2013-1

http://www.businessinsider.com/diaoyu-dispute-hurts-sino-japanese-trade-2013-1



6mpact – 'ai#an



'ai#an 6ndependence – 1NC

Chinese inflence !e" to prevent 'ai#an independence

Li *2


0atin America has )een a ma&or +attlegrond of the 3foreign polic" #ar ” )etween China and Baiwan o"erinternational leitimacy, reconition, and status. China7s Luest to reco"er what it calls “the pro"ince of Baiwan77 is one of thetop issues on its forein policy aenda . &ts stratey aainst Baiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al. >ilaterally, China has used a mi of

economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to +eep Baiwan from claimin independence . =lo)ally, China7s strateyhas focused on de"elopin an international united front desined to marinali?e Baiwan. Fearin 'ai#an’s psh for international reconition will lead to its declaration of independence, >eiin is determined to contain Baiwan in e"ery

corner of the world, especially in Central America and the Cari))ean, the stronghold of 'ai#an .Baiwan has 4 million people and well

protected territory. Get, of the *nited ations7 3@ mem)er states, only 4 reconi?e Baiwan as a so"erein state. Jf the 4 countries that reconi?eBaiwan, 34 are in 0atin America and the Cari))ean. Baiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reconition. &f these

states were to switch reconition from Baipei to >eiin , the damae to Baiwan7s political conZdence and its claims of leitimacy as a

state would )e seriously undermined. Accordin to then6prime minister of Baiwan Gu Shyi6+un in 44, Baiwan7s allies in 0atin America and the

Cari))ean “ha"e helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maximm diplomatic importance (44 *nder such circumstances, thestrateic competition )etween China and Baiwan has )een intensiZed in a reion far away from Asia.

Baiwan independence will spar+ *S6China u+e war Lo#ther, staff reporter in ashinton M.C., 415(illiam, “Baiwan could spar+ nuclear war: report” Baipei Bimes: Jnline: $ar 3, 43:http://www.taipeitimes.com/ews/taiwan/archi"es/43//3/4HH433#

Baiwan is the most li!el" potential crisis that cold trigger a nclear #ar +et#een China and the US, a new

academic report concludes. “Baiwan remains the sinle most plausi)le and danerous source of tension and conflict )etween the *S and China,” says the 546pae report )y the ashinton6)ased Center for Strateic and 6nternational Studies

(CS&S#. ;repared )y the CS&S7 ;roect on uclear &ssues and resultin from a year6lon study, the report emphasi?es that >eiin continuesto )e set on a policy to prevent 'ai#an’s independence, while at the same time the *S maintains the capa)ility to cometo Baiwan7s defense. “Althouh tensions across the Baiwan Strait ha"e su)sided since )oth Baipei and >eiin em)raced a policy of

enaement in 49, the sitation remains com+sti+le , complicated )y rapidly diverging cross-strait militar"

capa+ilities and persistent political disagreements ,” the report says. &n a footnote, it Luotes senior fellow at the *S Council on

Forein 1elations 1ichard >etts descri)in Baiwan as “the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia.” Bhe report also

Luotes >etts as sayin that neither >eiin nor ashinton can fully control de"elopments that miht inite a Baiwan crisis. “Bhis is a classic

recipe for surprise, miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation ,” >etts wrote in a separate study of his own. Bhe CS&S study says:

“For the foreseea)le future Baiwan is the continency in which nuclear weapons would most li+ely )ecome a maorfactor , )ecause the fate of the island is intertwined )oth with the legitimac" of the Chinese Commnist )art" andthe relia+ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia6;acific reion.”

0oes glo+al and nclear

7n!ovic 8 (0ee <, American $ilitary *ni"ersity, “Bhe Chinese6Baiwanese Conflict: ;ossi)le Futures of aConfrontation )etween China, Baiwan and the *nited States of America”, http://www.lamp6method.or/eCommons/-un+o"ic.pdf #

A war )etween China, Baiwan and the * nited S tates has the potential to escalate into a nclear conflict and a

third #orld #ar, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict, includin <apan , )othorea s, 1ussia, Australia, &ndia and =reat >ritain , if they were drawn in to the war, as well as all other countries inthe world that participate in the lo)al economy, in which the *nited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. &f

China were a)le to successfully anne Baiwan, the possi)ility eists that they could then plan to attac+ <apan and )ein a policy of aressi"e epansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia, as

well as the ;acific and e"en into &ndia, which could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces tocontain the threat. &n any case, if China and the *nited States enae in a full6scale conflict , there are few countries in the worldthat will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. -owe"er, China, Baiwan and *ni ted States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine itse"entual outcome, therefore, other countries will not )e considered in this study.









Baiwan &ndependence O 4C

'ai#an independence cases nclear #ar- China #old +e forced to retaliate #hich forces U(S( intervention

and nclear escalation – that’s /ardle" and 0owther

Dra#s in ever"one- cases extinction

Straits 'imes, $***Straits Bimes, 64H64, “o one ains in war o"er Baiwan,” ln

B-% hih6intensity scenario postulates a cross6strait war escalatin into a full6scale war )etween the *S and China. &f ashinton were to conclude

that splittin China would )etter ser"e its national interests, then a full6scale war )ecomes una"oida)le.Conflict on such a scale #old em+roil other contries far

and near and 6horror of horrors 6raise the possi)ility of a nuclear war ( >eiin has already told the *S and <apan pri"ately that it considers any country pro"idin )ases and loistics support to any *S forces attac+in China as )ellierent parties open to its retaliation. &n the reion, this means South orea, <apan, the ;hilippines and, to a lesser

etent, Sinapore. &f China were to retaliate, east Asia will )e set on fire. And the conflaration may not end there as opportunistic powers else#here

ma" tr" to overtrn the existing #orld order( ith the *S distracted, ssia ma" see! to redefine Erope?s

political landscape. Bhe )alance of power in the $iddle %ast may )e similarly upset )y the li+es of &raL. &n south Asia, hostilities )etween &ndia and ;a+istan,each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, cold enter a ne# and dangeros phase ( ill a full6scale Sino6*S war lead to a nuclear warRAccordin to =eneral $atthew 1ideway, commander of the *S %ihth Army which fouht aainst the Chinese in the orean ar, the *S had at the time thouht of usin nuclear weaponsaainst China to sa"e the *S from military defeat. &n his )oo+ Bhe orean ar, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future *S forein policy, =en 1ideway said that *S was confronted with two choices in orea 6truce or a )roadened war, which could ha"e led to the use of nuclear weapons. &f the *S had to resort to nuclear

weaponry to defeat China lon )efore the latter acLuired a similar capa)ility, there is little hope of winnin a #ar against China H years later, short ofusin nuclear weapons. Bhe *S estimates that China possesses a)out 4 nuclear warheads that can destro" maor American cities.

>eiin also seems prepared to o for the nuclear option( A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that >eiin was considerin a re"iew of its Ynon first

useY principle reardin nuclear weapons. $aor6=eneral ;an ThanLian, president of the military6funded &nstitute for Strateic Studies, told a atherin at the oodrow ilson

&nternational Centre for Scholars in ashinton that althouh the o"ernment still a)ided )y that principle, there were stron pressures from the military to drop it. -e said military

leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country ris+ed dismem)erment as a reslt of

foreign intervention( =en 1ideway said that should that come to pass, #e #old see the destrction of civilisation . Bhere

would )e no "ictors in such a war. hile the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over 'ai#an might seem inconceiva+le, it cannot

+e rled ot entirel", for China pts sovereignt" a+ove ever"thing else . =en 1ideway recalled that the )iest mista+e the*S made durin the orean ar was to assess Chinese actions accordin to the American way of thin+in.



Ext – Solves 6ndependence

Chinese economic inflence !e" to prevent 'ai#an recognition

Ellis 11

N1. %"an, Assistant ;rofessor of ational Security Studies in the Center for -emispheric Mefense Studies at the ational Mefense *ni"ersity.Chinese Soft ;ower in 0atin America, 3st Luarter 433,http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/imaes/fL6/<FD!9H6@3!%llis.pdf P

Miplomatic 1econition of Baiwan. For the ;1C, the o"ernment of Baiwan represents an important issue of )olitical legitimac" and internal secrit". Currently, 34 of the 4 nations in the world that diplomatically reconi?e the o"ernment of Baiwan are found in Latin America and the Cari++ean . Althouh the ;eople7s 1epu)lic of China does not pu)licly threaten to )loc+

in"estment in or loans to countries that do not reconi?e the ;1C, China repeatedly emphasi?es the issue in its pu)lic diplomacy in thereion, and ma+es such in"estments and mar+et access difficult for those countries that do not reconi?e it , while simultaneously

nurturin epectations reardin the opportunities that diplomatically reconi?in the ;1C could )rin. hen Costa 1icachaned its diplomatic reconition from Baiwan to the ;1C in $ay 4, for eample, it recei"ed an aid pac+ae that included an 29million soccer stadium, the purchase of 2 million in o"ernment )onds, "arious hihway, pu)lic wor+s, and aid proects, and a 23 )illion oint "enture to epand

the country7s petroleum refinery, as well as ;1C aid in facilitatin access to Chinese mar+ets )y traditional Costa 1ican products such as coffee. &n part, suchChinese enerosity was directed toward the other countries in the reion that still reconi?ed Baiwan in order todemonstrate the t"pes of +enefits that cold +e made availa+le if the" too #ere to change their diplomatic

postre(

6solation !e" to prevent independence

Gohnson *


Since the 3@5@ ci"il war , Bai wan has )een separate from the ;1C, and the ;1C "iews Baiwan as a Yreneade pro"inceY thatmust )e reunified with the rest of China. ;art of >eiin's plan to +ring it +ac! into the fold has )een to iso late 'ai#an

diplomaticall"( &n the 3@Hs, most of 0atin America had diplomatic relations with Bai wan. Bhen, Cu)a's Fidel Castro reime esta)lished

ties with China in 3@. &n the 3@s, Chile led a maor shift in fa"or of the ;1C. Currently, only 4H countries accord Baiwan diplomatic status,

and one6fourth of them are in 0atin America: Costa 1ica, %l Sal"ador, =uatemala, -onduras, icaraua, ;anama, and ;arauay. Baiwan paysdearly for this reconition, pro"idin de"elopment aid and disaster assistance to these states.

e" to prevent independence

Giang $**2


0atin America is also rele"ant for China7s efforts to reunite Baiwan with the motherland. Bo resol"e the Baiwan issue is

one of the most important tas!s for the Chinese people. >eiin is willin to ac hieve this reniMcation

peacefll", with utmost sincerity and reat effort, )ut 'ai#an independence cannot +e tolerated . Currently, 4 countries ha"e“diplomatic relations” with Baiwan , and 1$ of them are fond in Latin America . Bhey are ;arauay, the only country in SouthAmerica which reconi?es Baiwan, si of the se"en Central American countries, and Z "e Cari))ean island nations (the Mominican 1epu)lic, -aiti, Saint itts and e"is, St. 0ucia and Saint Eincent and the =renadines#. Bhe ;eople7s 1epu)lic of China has esta)lished diplomatic relations with 3@ countries around the world. &t is

a mem)er of more than 3 international orani?ations. >ut the a)o"e6mentioned 34 0atin American countries +eep a )lind eye to this fact.Bhey inore the resolutions passed )y the *nited ations on the Baiwan issue, )elittle themsel"es )y +eepin ties with a pro"ince of a so"erein nation, and hurt thefeelins of the Chinese people.

China’s inflence and C+a and Fene;ela is strong no#, pressing against 'ai#an

1ory Carroll is currently the =uardian7s *S west coast correspondent. -is )oo+ on -uo ChU"e?, Comandante,was pu)lished in $arch 43, 3363@6$** N“&nternational: China's influence: ;resident's 0atin America tourcements >eiin's trade clout”,









Bhe =uardian (0ondon# 6 Final %dition, ; 4, 0eis, s)haP

China's president, -u <intao, is leadin scores of Chinese )usiness people on a sweep throuh 0atin America toreinforce >eiin's rowin economic clout in the reion. -u launched free trade tal+s on a "isit to Costa 1ica,

)efore flyin to a rapturous reception in Cu)a. Bhis wee+ he will also )e one of the stars at a ;acific rim summit of43 nations in ;eru. >y then, >eiin's deleation will ha"e rown to people, includin 34 ministers. YChina'srelations with 0atin America and the Cari))ean ha"e ne"er )een so close,Y -u told ;eru's %l Comercio newspaper.&n contrast to 1ussia's politically chared push into the reion 6 which in"ol"es sellin arms and challenin *Sinfluence 6 >eiin's focus is on ariculture, raw materials and mar+ets for its eports. China's trade with 0atinAmerica has risen tenfold to 234)n (]9)n#, and it has toppled the *S as Chile's main tradin partner since 4,althouh the *S remains the reion's main economic partner, with 2H)n in trade last year. Cu)a's state newsaency reported that -u sined almost a do?en areements with C+a , includin plans to uprade infrastructure and

)uy suar and nic+el. China hopes to sin a free trade deal this wee+ with ;eru to o)tain )etter access to its copperand iron deposits. Bhere is already a 24.4)n deal to etract m tonnes of copper from a sinle ;eru"ian pea+. &n>ra?il, the Chinese are neotiatin to )uild a 2)n steel mill with help from the >an+ of China, which is to open a

)ranch there net year. China has also sun+ )illions into oil eploration in %cuador, Colom)ia and Fene;ela.China has wooed se"eral 0atin America states away from its ri"al, 'ai#an . As a reward, Costa 1ica is to recei"e a2m soft loan, help with )uildin a ,6seat stadium and modernisin an oil refinery. &n a sym)olic step,China last month in"ested 2Hm in the &nter6American Me"elopment >an+, a sinal that it wants to )e a lon6term

player in the reion. As China's clout rows, that of the *S dwindles. Bhe economic slowdown is epected to hit0atin American eports to the *S, as well as remittances from 0atino mirants. YBhe reality is that to some dereethe fate of 0atin America has )een decoupled from the *S,Y Maniel %ric+son, of the &nter6American Mialouethin+tan+, told the Associated ;ress. YJr at least it's not as tihtly entwined as it used to )e.Y

China is sing economic lin!s #ith the main idea of removing 'ai#an claims to independence

CS *

(Congressional esearch Service, C.6''EE .N H.E60N ELA'6.NS G.SE)7 ( %6DEN, Gr(, Dela#are,

Chairman C76S'.)7E G( D.DD, Connectict 6C7AD 0( LU0A, 6ndiana G.7N H( E/, assachsetts C7UC

7A0EL, Ne+ras!a USSELL D( HE6N0.LD, >isconsin N. C.LEAN, innesota %A%AA %.:E, California %.%

C.E, 'ennessee %6LL NELS.N, Hlorida 0E.0E F( F.6N.F6C7, .hio %AAC .%AA, 6llinois L6SA U.>S6,

Alas!a .%E' ENENDEB, Ne# Gerse" G6 De6N', Soth Carolina %ENGA6N L( CAD6N, ar"land G.7NN/ 6SAS.N,

0eorgia .%E' )( CASE/, Gr(, )enns"lvania DAF6D F6''E, Loisiana G6 >E%%, Firginia G.7N %AASS., >"oming Anton" G( %lin!en, Staff Director enneth A( "ers, Gr(, ep+lican Staff Director, C76NA?S H.E60N ).L6C/ AND OOS.H'

).>E?? 6N S.U'7 AE6CA, AS6A, AND AH6CA, 0overnment )rinting .ffice, April $**, http://www.po.o"/fdsys/p+/C;1B633S;1B53@4/html/C;1B633S;[email protected]#JE%1E&% China's rowin interest in 0atin America and the Cari))ean is a fairly new phenomenon that hasde"eloped o"er the past se"eral years. >einnin in April 43 with ;resident <ian Temin's 36day tour of 0atinAmerica, a succession of senior Chinese officials ha"e "isited 0atin American countries to court reionalo"ernments, while 0atin American leaders also ha"e )een freLuent "isitors in >eiin. China's primary interestin the reion appears to )e to ain reater access to needed resources66such as "arious ores, soy)eans, copper, iron

and steel, and oil66throuh increased trade and in"estment. &t is also li+ely that >eiin's additional oal is toisolate Baiwan )y lurin the 34 0atin American and Cari))ean nations still maintainin diplomatic relations withBaiwan to shift their diplomatic reconition to China. hile China's economic lin+aes with 0atin America ha"erown, the *.S. ad"antae of eoraphical proimity means that the ;1C presence is li+ely to remain dwarfed )y*.S. trade with and in"estment in the reion. $oreo"er, althouh many 0atin American countries welcome

Chinese in"estment, some ha"e "iewed China as an economic threat, and are concerned that )oth their domestic

industries and their *.S. eport mar+ets will )e o"erwhelmed )y Chinese competition. e"ertheless, someanalysts maintain that >eiin's rowin role in the reion may ha"e loner6term implications for *.S. reionalinterests and influence

Chinese Latin American inflence s#itches contries diplomatic recognition of 'ai#anImltiple contries

prove

CS *





http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT41927/html/CPRT-110SPRT41927.htm










).>E?? 6N S.U'7 AE6CA, AS6A, AND AH6CA, 0overnment )rinting .ffice, April $**, http://www.po.o"/fdsys/p+/C;1B633S;1B53@4/html/C;1B633S;[email protected]#

FJ1%&= ASS&SBAC% Bhe eact le"el of China's forein assistance to 0atin America and the Cari))ean isuncertain, )ut reportedly the reion recei"es a)out 3[ of China's forein aid worldwide, far )ehind assistance

that China reportedly pro"ides to Asia and Africa.H5 Aid to the reion appears to focus on )ilateral assistancerather than throuh reional or multilateral institutions, with the o)ecti"es of strenthenin diplomatic relationsand isolatin Baiwan.HH ;articularly in the Cari))ean and Central America, China has used assistance in recentyears as part of its chec+)oo+ diplomacy to entice countries in the reion to switch their diplomatic reconitionfrom Baiwan, while a num)er of countries in the reion ha"e )een adept at playin the two countries aainsteach other in order to maimi?e financial )enefits. As noted a)o"e, Chinese assistance to Mominica and =renadawas instrumental in those countries decidin to switch diplomatic reconition. Costa 1ica was also rumored toha"e )een offered su)stantial assistance, althouh Costa 1ican officials maintain the prospect of increase tradeand in"estment was the primary rationale for the switch.









Ext – Empirics

Chinese inflence in Latin America is !e" to eliminate 'ai#an’s claims to independenceICosta ica proves

opel and rase *2(Ma"e opel is 1esearch Mirector and $i+e rause is a Senior Fellow at the &ndependence &nstitute, Bhe Bhreat From Sino6America, BCS Maily,/3/, http://www.ideasinactiont".com/tcs!daily/4//the6threat6from6sino6america.html#

&n <une, Costa 1ica ended nearly sity years of diplomatic relations with Baiwan in order to esta)lish diplomaticrelations with China. ot only a "ictory in >eiin's efforts to smother Baiwan's independence, the Costa 1icanswitch is further e"idence of China's rowin influence in 0atin AmericaIa rowin threat to democracy and to*.S. interests. Announcin the diplomatic switch, Costa 1ican president Jscar Arias cited a desire to strenthencommercial ties and Yattract in"estmentY from China. Arias then than+ed Baiwan for its Ysolidarity and co6operationY o"er the last sity years, notin that Baiwan has )een Y"ery enerous.Y >ut the net day, Ariasdenounced Baiwan for )ein Ystiny.Y Soundin as thouh he had ta+en emerency tal+in points from >eiin,Arias rum)led, YConsiderin the few friends they ha"e, they don't treat them "ery well.Y Arias continued, Yithouta dou)t, we will et more help from China.Y &n truth, Baiwan is Luite enerous for a small nation, )ut a nation witha population of 43 million can't offer the same economic incenti"es as a nation with a population of 3. )illion andthe world's second6larest economy. China insists that the price of trade relations is the se"erance of diplomaticrelations with independent Baiwan. A 4H -eritae Foundation report warned that YChina has launched a maordiplomatic offensi"e in Central America and the Cari))ean to stamp out Baiwan's diplomatic leitimacy in the

reion and supplant Baiwan's influence amon these youn democracies with its own.Y Bhe report o)ser"ed thatChina has )een Ytranslatin its economic success 6and its search for resources to fuel its economic rowthIintoreater influence in 0atin America and the Cari))ean



A$ Economic 6nflence Not e"

Economic inflence !e" – prevents 'ai#an competition

Li *2


&n the future, China7s rowin in"ol"ement could ha"e serious political and military implications. At present, the most

important dimension in the relations +et#een China and Latin America is no do+t economic . China willcontinue le"erain its economic clout in the reion to support its political preferences, pressin countries to fall in line

reardin its top forein policy priority: its claims o"er Baiwan. J"er the lon run, due to China7s rowin economic miht and soft power, as well as the chanin dynamics of 0atin American domestic politics , it miht )ecome increasinly difZcult for Baiwan tocompete with the ;1C in 0atin America.

China ses an a+ndant trade relationship #ith Latin American contries to sppress 'ai#an, +t China #ill

#ithdra# if American inflence is flexed

'he >ashington 'imes, H66$**J N“China in the est”, the ashinton Bimes, %ditorials, ;A3, 0eis, s)haP

&n the ;entaon's 4 report to Conress on China's military power, released last wee+, the ;entaon notes withconcern in addition to the aressi"e )uildup, increasinly menacin posture toward Baiwan and a continued lac+ oftransparency that the ;1C's dealins with Fene;ela, C+a and se"eral African nations are Yundercuttininternational efforts to influence those states.Y China is doin in 0atin America what it is doin in Africa and the$iddle %ast: pursuin raw materials and natural resources, particularly enery resources, with a narrow6mindedmercantilist dri"e. China would consider it an added )onus if, in the course of procurin the resources it needs tosustain its economic rowth, it can also chip a#a" at some of the diplomatic spport for 'ai#an in a reionwhere se"eral countries reconi?e the autonomy of the island. ith Cu)a, China shares a eneral ideoloical andre"olutionary +inship, )ut cementin the relationship now is China's need for raw materials, especially nic+el. &nEene?uela, the ;1C's interests center around oil and as reser"es. Bo this point, China has )een careful to a"oid

)ein draed into Eene?uelan ;resident -uo Cha"e?'s "er)al )arrae aainst the *nited States. Bhe ChineseYha"e a way to ma+e it clear to Eene?uela that they don't want it playin the China card,Y said Bhomas A. Shannon<r., assistant secretary of state for estern -emisphere affairs, durin a recent meetin with editors and reporters at

Bhe ashinton Bimes. YBhey tell us that they are not interested in political or military ad"entures ,Y $r. Shannonnoted, )ut the pentaon report raises the Luestion of Ywhether or not arms sales are used to facilitate accessY toenery resources in Eene?uela. Such transactions would undermine *.S. policy toward Eene?uela, a country that the*nited States recently )anned arm sales to after the State Mepartment desinated it as not fully cooperatin withefforts aainst terrorism.





A$ /o 6solation Evidence is .ld

Economic po#er is +eing sed to isolate 'ai#an

Cohen 1$

NBre"or, 1esearch Associate at the Council on -emispheric Affairs, and the former 0atin America %ditor at FairJ)ser"er., China Comes to 0atin America, 34/H/34, http://www.fairo)ser"er.com/theme/china6comes6latin6americaP

China has )rouht cheaper imports, a more di"erse clientel of tradin partners and a sinificant amount of etra capital. -owe"er, many lamentthe practices of Chinese state corporations for )uyin up land, payin )elow industry waes and deepenin 0atin America7s dependence on the eport of natural

resources. From a practical perspecti"e, China seems li+e a reat deal. Chinese lenders are much more lenient in their standards,

pro"idin 0atin American states with the immediate captial necessary to de"elop their infrastructure. &n 43 alone, Chinaranted 0atin American countries 2)n in low interest loans as a form of economic assistence O outnum)erin contri)utions from the orld >an+, the &nter6

American Me"elopment >an+, and the *S &mport6%port >an+ com)ined. &n echane for resource consesions from 0atin America, theChinese ha"e financed new hihways, raillines, and irriation systems in these countries. -owe"er, these loans are etremely concetrated in a handful ofcountries and sectors. $ore than @[ went to Eene?uela, >ra?il, Arentina and %cuador, and most were in"ested in impro"ements in minin and transportation

infrastructure. 0i+ewise, @[ of all forein direct in"estment (FM&# was directed toward the etracti"e industries. %ssentially, China has mastered the

se of aid and investment to facilitate resorce exploitation, reLuirin eclusi"e access to certain resources in echane for loan interest

loans. Miplomatically, China has )een less concerned with underminin the influence of the *nited States in 0atin America and more focused onainin reconition as the true China, in its onoin ri"alry with Baiwan . As -e 0i, a scholar on Sino60atin American relations pointed

out, “>eiin is determined to contain Baiwan in e"ery corner of the world, especially in Central America and theCari))ean, the stronghold of 'ai#an(4 &ndeed, twel"e of the twenty6three countries that still reconi?e Baiwan as the leitimate o"ernment ofChina are located in Central America and the Cari))ean.

http://www.fairobserver.com/360theme/china-comes-latin-america






A$ Latin America Not e"

Latin America is the !e" +attlegrond for diplomatic recognition

Eri!son and Chen *2

NManiel ;. %ri+son is Senior Associate for *.S. policy at the &nter6American Mialoue. -e is coeditor ofBransformin Socialist %conomies: 0essons for Cu)a and >eyond. <anice Chen is a oint6deree candidate at BheFletcher School of 0aw and Miplomacy and =eoretown *ni"ersity 0aw Center. She was an intern at the &nter6American Mialoue durin the summer of 4., China, Baiwan, and the >attle for 0atin America, 4,http://ww.thedialoue.or/;u)licationFiles/%ri+son6Chen63[4(4#.pdf P

hile increasin economic and political ties )etween China and 0atin America ha"e attracted sinificant attention from

*.S. policyma+ers in the past few years, the etent to which >eiin7s forein policy is shaped )y its desire to isolate Baiwaninternationally is often o"erloo+ed. Get, this crucial dimension of Chinese forein policy is indispensa)le to a fullunderstandin of China7s risin influence in the lo)al system, and its possi)le repercussions for *.S. national interests. Boday, in

some of the most remote corners of the world, a fierce contest for diplomatic recognition and political inflence is +eing

foght )etween Baiwan and the ;1C. &n particular, 0atin America has emered as the crcial +attlegrond wherea do?en strulin nations, mainly in Central America and the Cari))ean, ha"e )ecome ensnared in the cross-strait

dispte( Bhe strateically significant 3s#ing states ” amon them face rowin pressures to a)andon their lonstandin relationships with Baiwan in fa"or of cementin diplomatic ties with China. $eanwhile, officials in ashinton ha"e

yet to fully consider the possi)le implications for *.S. policy of this intensifyin competition in their own )ac+yard.

Economic clot is the !e" to isolation – Latin America is critical

Eri!son and Chen *2


&n addition to its campain of military intimidation, >eiin has pursued a sustained policy of isolatin Baiwan diplomatically, most often )y promising large sms of aid to the rapidly dwindlin ran+s of the latter7s allies. >eiin riorously promotes its“Jne China” policy, which means that non6reconition of the Baiwanese o"ernment is a prereLuisite for conductin

formal diplomatic relations with the ;1CIin effect forcing other governments to choose +et#een %ei&ing and 'aipei .Currently there are only 4H countries in the world that officially reconi?e Baiwan8 more than half of these are located in the estern -emisphere.3 Althouh each of

the 3 0atin American countries in"ol"ed in this eopolitical chess match ha"e little indi"idual clout, toether they ma+e up themost significant grop of states cauht in the cross6strait tu6of6war. Baiwan is reconi?ed )y all se"en nations of the CentralAmerican isthmus, a pri?ed contiuous )loc that includes =uatemala, >eli?e, icaraua, %l Sal"ador, -onduras, Costa 1ica, and ;anama. ot coincidentally, thisroup also represents the stronest )ulwar+ of support for the *nited States in the estern -emisphere. Se"eral of these countries sent troops to &raL as part of the*.S.6led coalition, and they ha"e dutifully partnered with ashinton in efforts to contain reional ad"ersaries such as Cu)a7s Fidel Castro and Eene?uela7s -uoChU"e?. &n o"em)er 4, ;anama won a two6year term as the 0atin American representati"e on the *nited ations Security Council, )rea+in a lenthy impasse )etween ChU"e?, who campained aressi"ely for Eene?uela to assume the post, and the *nited States, which )ac+ed =uatemalaIan ally of BaiwanIfor the "acantseat.

http://ww.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/Erikson-Chen-1%20(2).pdf






A$ U(S( 6nflence Doesn’t Affect 6t

)erception of U(S( a+andonment !e" – allo#s for Chinese fill in and 'ai#an isolation

Eri!son and Chen *2


For their part, 0atin Americans are intriued )y the idea of China as a potential partner for trade and investment . As arisin superpower without a colonial or “imperialist” history in the estern -emisphere, China is in many ways more politicall" attractive

than either the *nited States or the %uropean *nion, especially for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasinly anti6American and

s+eptical of estern intentions.34 e"ertheless, most analysts reconi?e that 0atin America7s em)race of China Ito the etent that this has actually

occurredI is intimately lin+ed to its perception of neglect and disinterest from the United States . er"ousness a)out China7srise runs deeper amon the smaller economies such as those of Central America, which do not enoy >ra?il7s or Arentina7s a)undance in eport commodities and areinclined to "iew the competition posed )y the endless supply of cheap Chinese la)or as a menace to their nascent manufacturin sectors. >ut e"en as China see+s to

reassure the *nited States that its interests in South America are purely economic, >eiin has )eun enlistin reional powers li+e $eico toaid its effort to woo Central American diplomats. ;ressure is also )ein placed on ;arauay )y Arentina, >ra?il, and Chile, its partners in theSouth American Common $ar+et ($ercosur#, which places certain constraints on mem)er states7 )ilateral forein policy preroati"es. Mespite its a"owals to

ashinton, China appears to )e usin its economic miht as a means to achie"e the patently political o)ecti"e ofstripping 'ai#an of its democratic allies in the >estern 7emisphere.





A$ Side >ith 'ai#an 6nevita+l"

Contries #ill see! to maximi;e economic gains – #hoever has the most mone" #ins

Eri!son and Chen *2


Bhis intensifyin attention from China and Baiwan is not necessarily unwelcome for Central America and the Cari))ean.

&ndeed, most of these countries are strulin to achie"e successful interation into the lo)al economy , and they are only too eaerto )oth see! ot ne# partners and maximi;e the economic gains from eistin relationships. >oth China and Baiwan have

sho#n interest in fundin infrastructure proects that ha"e fallen out of fa"or amon estern donors, and the 0atin American landscape is )ecomin host to an archipelao of )rides, roads, tunnels, and stadiums )uilt as )y6products of the cross6straitcompetition. $oreo"er, diplomatic relations with one partner does not preclude sustained economic trade with the other8 many nations that reconi?e China still do )usiness with Baiwan,and the re"erse is also true.

Chinese economic advantage over 'ai#an means it #ill s#a" contries to not recogni;e 'ai#an as an

independent nation in the s9oCS *


Chairman C76S'.)7E G( D.DD, Connectict 6C7AD 0( LU0A, 6ndiana G.7N H( E/, assachsetts C7UC7A0EL, Ne+ras!a USSELL D( HE6N0.LD, >isconsin N. C.LEAN, innesota %A%AA %.:E, California %.%





Analysis For now, it appears that China and Baiwan will continue to )attle for diplomatic reconition, usin the prospect of increased aid, trade, and in"estment to sway the decisions of the remainin do?en nationsreconi?in Baiwan. Some o)ser"ers maintain that +ey countries to watch include the Central American countriesof icaraua and ;anama, the Cari))ean nation of the Mominican 1epu)lic, and ;arauay, the sole South

American nation that continues to reconi?e Baiwan. &n the aftermath of Costa 1ica's <une 4 decision toswitch diplomatic partners, Chinese officials predicted a domino effect in which other countries would switchtheir reconition to China, )ut Baiwan launched an initiati"e in the reion in order to counter China's attempts totempt additional countries to switch sides that appears to ha"e )een successful in the short term. e"ertheless,o"er the lon run, China's sheer economic si?e and power )odes well for its a)ility to entice Baiwan's remainin34 allies in 0atin America and the Cari))ean to switch diplomatic sides.











Ext – 6ndependence P>ar

Cases #ar

/ardle" (<im Gardley and Bhom Shan+er (Staff riters O <im reported from Thanian and Bhom reported fromashinton.# ”Chinese a"y >uildup =i"es ;entaon ew orries.” Bhe ew Gor+ Bimes. April 9, 4H#

Bhe rowin friction )etween <apan and China, fueled )y risin nationalism in )oth countries, is ust one of the political de"elopments addin totensions in %ast Asia. &n $arch, China passed a contro"ersial new ??antisecession?? law authori?in a military attac+ if topleaders in >eiin )elie"e 'ai#an mo"es too far to#ard independence 66 a mo"e that )rouht hundreds ofthousands of people in 'ai#an out to protest China?s most recent military white paper also alarmed American

policy ma+ers )ecause it mentioned the *nited States )y name for the first time since 3@@9. &t stated that the American

presence in the reion ''complicated security factors.'' China , meanwhile, accused the *nited States and <apan of meddlin in adomestic Chinese matter when ashinton and Bo+yo recently issued a oint security statement that listed peace in'ai#an as a ''common strateic o)ecti"e.'' ''Bhe potential for a miscalclation or an incident here has actuallyincreased , ust )ased on the rhetoric o"er the past si months to a year,'' one American intellience analyst in ashinton said.

6ndependence cases #ar

C%S *8

NC>S ews, China: Baiwan &ndependence \ ar, 4/33/@, http://www.c)snews.com/43644!346H9H99.htmlP

&n unusually stron lanuae, China ratcheted p the rhetoric against 'ai#an in remar+s pu)lished ednesday and threatened that Ythe

se of force ma" +ecome navoida+le@ if the island's leaders pursue independence. Bhe warnin from >eiin came as Baiwan preparesto elect a new leader in $arch. ;resident Chen Shui6)ian, runnin for office aain, has won o"er more "oters since he came up with plans for a new constitution and a l aw on referendums that

could concei"a)ly lead to citi?ens "otin on Baiwanese independence. an Taii, a top mainland official who deals with the Baiwan issue, said cur)in any efforts the islandma+es toward independence is the ultimate oal of the mainland, which will o to war if necessary. Y&f the Baiwanauthorities collude with all splittist forces to openly enae in pro6independence acti"ities and challene themainland and the one6China principle, the use of force may )ecome una"oida)le,Y an was Luoted as sayin in China Maily, an %nlish6

lanuae newspaper with a wide forein audience. Separatists will Ypay a hih cost if they thin+ we will not use force,Y said an, "ice minister of

the Baiwan Affairs Jffice of China's Ca)inet. Y'ai#an independence means #ar(@ an, who was spea+in at a seminar on cross6straits relations, also tempered hisremar+s )y addin that Ythe people of Baiwan are our )rothers and sisters. e are not willin to meet at the )attleround.Y Bhe Chinese Ca)inet's Baiwan Affairs Jffice in >eiin had noimmediate comment on ednesday. Bhe $ainland Affairs Council in Baipei was silent hours after an's remar+s were pu)lished I a rare mo"e from a normally responsi"e o"ernment.

>eiin has lon threatened the use of force aainst Baiwan if it formally declares independence, )ut rarely so dramatically. Bhetwo sides split amid ci"il war in 3@5@, and >eiin insists that Baiwan )elons to China and must accept e"entual unification.

'ai#an independence triggers conflict and Chinese nationalism

1o)ert agan, ;repared Bestimony )efore the Senate Finance Committee, Su)ect: “Brade with China and &ts&mplications for *.S. Forein ;olicy,” F%M%1A0 %S S%1E&C%, $arch 4, $***, 0.&n fact, trends which )ean to )e "isi)le in 3@9@, and which ha"e persisted until the present, ha"e suested that the

present crop of Chinese leaders are more than e"er inclined to resist what they reard as estern entrapment. &nresponse to )oth internal and eternal pressures, they ha"e resorted to a common tactic of o"ernments in such

perilous times. Bhey ha"e appealed to a fer"ent Chinese nationalism , )ased on resentment at their past century ofsu)uation at the hands of the est and on a con"iction that their new economic and military power entitles themto a )ier place on the world stae. $uch of the appeal to nationalism has )een a necessary antidote to thedanerous ideoloical "acuum created )y economic reform. As domestic chanes ha"e Yundermined faith incommunism,Y enneth 0ie)erthal points out, China's leaders ha"e turned to nationalism Yto tihten discipline andmaintain support .Y And there are sins that this stratey wor+s, at least up to a point. $any ordinary Chinese seem

to ha"e )een enuinely stirred up )y anti6American or anti6<apanese campains in the Chinese media, and especiallyon specific issues li+e Baiwan. As Bhomas Christensen reports, Ycontinuin economic reforms and eposure of theChinese people to estern ideas and international news (ha"e# cut e"er more deeply into CC; leitimacy,Y andthere are Yfew issues left that do not trier de)ate and eacer)ate tensions )etween the state and society. Get in allsectors of politically aware Chinese society a consensus remains on the leitimacy of usin force , if necessary, to

pre"ent Baiwan's independence.Y

'ai#an independence riles the Dragon to attac!, dra#s in the US

'he Ne# Atlantis $**< (DA, Summer, p. 3 “Bhe Assassin7s $ace”#

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-202_162-587588.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-202_162-587588.html



As China's military power rows, so , too, does the daner that >eiin will ma+e a horri+le miscalclation ofAmerica's commitment and capa)ility to defend its interests and the security of %ast Asia . Bhe ;entaon analysisdescri)es an increased le"el of discussion in China's military and political ran+s a)out the Ystrateic window ofopportunityY opened in %ast Asia with the *.S. military's commitments in &raL, Afhanistan, and, for the foreseea)lefuture, with the war on terrorism. And this past $ay, >eiin deli"ered one of its most explicit threats so far toBaipei's pro6independence leaders: %ither a)andon your Ydanerous lrch to#ard independence Y and su)mit toChinese so"ereinty, or the YChinese people will crush (your# schemes firmly and thorouhly at any cost.Y Clearly,the Chinese dragon is crouchin in Ystrateic am)iuityY no loner . ith China's rise as a military power loomino"er the Asian6;acific, and >eiin stiflin the "oices of dissent e"erywhere under its immediate control, thewindow of opportunity for democracy in %ast Asia is shrin+in fast. Bo date, Baiwan's commitment to its owndefense has )een inadeLuate and unfocused, in part )ecause of its fear of Chinese retri)ution, )ut also )ecause of itsstrateic reliance on the *.S. to repel any Chinese aression. *ltimately, howe"er, if Baiwan is to )ecome andremain a fully so"erein democracy, it will ha"e to acLuire the means to defend itself. Bhe *nited States has )eenreluctant to impress that point upon Baipei, and only modest in its efforts to arm Baiwan, out of concern forupsettin the already fraile military )alance in the reion. >ut the time has come for a serious consideration of theconseLuences and potential perils of American Ystrateic am)iuityY in the Baiwan Strait.



A$ 'ai#an #on’t ris! it

'ai#an is #illing to ris! Chinese assalt – declaring independence cases massive air stri!es

/ang $**< NAndrew ien6M?u, teacher at the ational Sun Gat6sen *ni"ersity, ;eace and Security Across theBaiwan Strait, “Bhe Alternati"es to ;eace: ar Scenarios”, ;alra"e $acmillian ;u)lishin, ew Gor+, 45, p.3@63P

&n the )C?s calclation , a war aainst 'ai#an independence will reLuire massi"e air stri+es , special forcesoperations, and a na"al )loc+ade that will ena)le it to impose its will in an etremely short timeframe and withminimal losses. Bhe ;1C has learned lessons of the recent *S campains in uwait, >osnia, oso"o, andAfhanistan. &ts planners )elie"e that it could rely on ad"anced technoloy, the deployment of small num)ers of special operations troops

supported )y amphi)ious landin forces, and an effecti"e )loc+ade to achie"e a satisfactory outcome. hereas on the Baiwan side, it+nows that the ;1C's attac+ will open with de"astatin air attac+s , )ut they are confident that they can sur"i"e suchattac+s and that the ;1C will as a result hesitate to launch a hih6intensity conflict on the round. From theBaiwanese point of "iew, without air superiority and effecti"e control of the sea, the ;0A cannot launch amphi)iouslandin operations and sustain a round war on the island of Baiwan. Bherefore, the Baiwanese "iew is that if theycan sur"i"e the initial attac+, the ad"antae will shift to them.



A4: Meterrence

'his #ill escalate- Deterrence fails

Eirinia on!en, &MA Analyst, Auust $**5, “China7s ew 0eadership and a Baiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence,” &nstitute for Mefense Analysis,http://www.dtic.mil/ci6)in/=etB1MocRAM\AMA53955V0ocation\*4Vdoc\=etB1Moc.pdf

&n contrast to the security strateies of compara)le powers, China7s national security stratey has a nota)ly internal focus, and its emphasis on protectin

the “socialist system” is a conspicuous one. Bhe stratey does not promote a Chinese " ision for world de"elopment, or loo+ to wield reat eternal, lo)al influence. China7s o)ecti"es arereacti"e in nature. Bhey focus on resistin aression, stoppin separatist mo"ements, a"ertin the su)"ersion of the o"ernin political system and leadership, and opposin epansion.33 Bhis is

not the defense doctrine of a risin, stron, sta)le, nationally unified state. &nstead, these are arua)ly the o)ecti"es of a wea+, unsta)le reime that isfocused on its own permanence, and worried a)out its a)ility to sustain itself. Bhe ;1C actions at the neoti atin ta)le reflect this concern as well. China is far more flei)le on issues such as

weapons proliferation and nuclear testin than it is on issues such as Baiwan or human rihts. Bhis indicates that those issues that threaten internal o"ernancecomprise the ;1C national defense policy7s chief o)ecti"es.34 Coincidentally, it is on such matters that China7s leadership has pro"en "irtuallyimmo"a)le. Biananmen SLuare pro"ides a particularly poinant eample of the premium that the ;1C places on the ;arty7s sur"i"a)ility )ecause it demonstrated that the CC; will e"en use forceaainst its own people if it percei"es a threat to its power.3 &n fact, throuhout the ;1C7s history, the ;arty has deployed military force more often aainst domestic opposition than aainst

eternal aression.35 Bhis record indicates the CC;7s ris+ perception can, and does, dri"e ;1C policy, and wi ll surely play a sinificant role in any ;1C deterrence eLuation. Bhis pattern carries potentially danerous ramifications for a Baiwan crisis scenario for two primary reasons. First, the outcome of a Baiwan confrontation

could desta)ili?e China7s economic, social, and political landscape, and the fallout could feasi)ly threaten CC;reime security. &n a country that )oasts a history of popular uprisin and sudden re"olution spurred )y domestic insta)ility, a Baiwanese )id for independence and su)seLuent conflict

could pro"o+e dramatic uphea"al.3H Second, Baiwan threatens CC; reime sur"i"al )ecause it em)odies those principles the Communist ;arty has used to

esta)lish its leitimacy and accrue political capital: nationalism and nit" . &n the wa+e of Biananmen SLuare and amidst the push for mar+et reform, the CC; lost its ideoloicalfootin, and has since em)raced nationalist and unifyin rhetoric in order to dri"e China7s moderni?ation efforts. Bhe ;arty7s socialist mantra of the past no loner applies to the current reality. &t

now loo+s to nationalism to confer leitimacy on ;arty doctrine and )olster support for the political leadership. Bhis draws the CC;7s a)ility to handle a Baiwan crisis into Luestion. Baiwanhas )ecome such a principal sym)ol of Chinese nationalism and pride that its loss #old essentiall" constitte

national hmiliation. As a result, any of the nation7s leaders responsi)le for Baiwan7s loss are li+ely to )e cast as l ishi ?uiren, or “the people condemned )y hi story”3 O not a

leacy the CC; is anious to secure. Bhis danting prospect leaves the leadership little room to manever. Bhrouh its nationalist rhetoric

and underpinnins, the ;arty may ha"e inetrica)ly lin+ed its fate with that of Baiwan. Bhis concept is de"eloped fully later in this paper. &n sum, the Baiwan Luestion isclosel" associated #ith China’s most fndamental national o+&ectives, and has the potential to sha!e the

fondation of the Commnist regime( 'his indicates that deterring China #ill indeed +e difficlt, and flat ot

impossi+le in certain cases. &n fact, China7s Mefense hite ;aper states t hat China will use force aainst Baiwan under any of three conditions: formal declaration of independence )yBaipei8 acLuisition of nuclear weapons )y Baiwan8 or a failure to return to the neotiatin ta)le sooner or later. Bhere seems little Luestion )ut that >eiin would not )e deterred from the use offorce in the first two circumstances. &n the third, deterrence could well )e epected to play a role in determinin if, when, and how China would use force to )rin Baipei )ac+ to the neotiatinta)le. Bhe focus of this paper i s not a discussion on deterrin China from initiatin military confrontation un der any of these scenarios8 rather, it is on the role of deterrence once a conflict h as )eun, for whate"er reason.



A$ 6nterdependence Chec!s



6nterdependence doesn’t chec!

on!en, $**5Eirinia $on+en, &MA Analyst, Auust 4, “China7s ew 0eadership and a Baiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence,” &nstitute for Mefense Analysis, http://www.dtic.mil/ci6 )in/=etB1MocRAM\AMA53955V0ocation\*4Vdoc\=etB1Moc.pdf

ith these primary dri"ers in mind, the analysis concludes that the ;1C leadership feels that the srvival of the CC) regime in fact #old

hang in the +alance of a 'ai#an confrontation( 'he CC) has come to rel" heavil" on the Chinese people’s

nationalist sensi+ilities to promote its own aenda and mas+ its ideoloical contradictions as it tries to reconcile an o)solete Communist doctrine and correspondin political

system with its desire to de"elop a mar+et economy. ConseLuently, Baiwan, which has come to represent the most fundamental of China7s nationalinterests (territorial interity, state so"ereinty, future economic de"elopment and prosperity, and reunification of the motherland#, is em)lematic of the "ery principles for which the

Communist ;arty purportedly stands. Bherefore, should the CC; lose Baiwan, it would essentiall" delegitimi;e its self-proclaimed

role as the )C’s garantor of national pride and prosperit"( 'he p+lic, already s+eptical of the CC; and it s moti"es, is notli+ely to tolerate such failure( S6 4 Bhe rise of the new CC; leadership al so has )rouht potential framentation and power strule to the political esta)lishment. JutoinCC; Chairman and ;1C ;resident <ian Temin retained his chairmanship of the Central $ilitary Commission (C$C# and essentially created multiple power centers within the ;1C leadership.Althouh -u <intao is the constitutionally reconi?ed head of the ;arty and the state, <ian Temin controls the military and, in the ;1C political tradition, he who holds the un holds the power.ConseLuently, should a Baiwan crisis arise in the a)sence of a clearly delineated chain of command or formally reconi?ed principal decision6ma+in authority, the leadership wil l most li+ely

ta+e a harder6line approach to any Baiwan confrontation in the hopes of preser"in internal unity. e"ertheless, the decision to escalate will not )e the preferred

choice. Bhe Fourth =eneration leadership larely comprises a roup of youn, pramatic, educated technocrats focused on China7s domestic economic de"elopment. Bheir top

priority is facilitatin the ;1C7s moderni?ation and economic rowth to secure lon6term domestic sta)ility and to demonstrate the Communist ;arty7s a)ility to pro"ide for the

Chinese people O a critical underta+in if the CC; is oin to perpetuate its power. Bhus, a Baiwan confrontation, which would undermine the ;1C7s forein trade, in"estment, and

stature, would de)ilitate the CC;7s de"elopment plan. Furthermore, as the o"ernment tries to implement the reform needed to facilitate this same economic rowth stratey, itfaces fallout in the political, social, and economic arenas. Jn the political front, the CC; is strulin to respond to calls for reater openness, transparency, and reform to match those chanes )ein made in the economic arena. Similarly, the transition from a Communist, larely state6supported industrial comple to a mar+et6oriented economy has wrea+ed ha"oc on the ;1C7s socio6

economic sta)ility. Bhus, the CC) leadership finds itself in a precarios position respond to China’s fervent

nationalism and win reunification no matter the cost so as to potentially secure the ;arty7s sur"i"al, or compromise for fear of an

economic fallot that could pro"e eLually detrimental to the reime7s lone"ity. *.S. defense strategists can conse9entl" anticipate the

follo#ing the )C #ill avoid initial confrontation at all costs +t, shold conflict arise, the CC) leadership

#ill pose a significant deterrence pro+lem – its ver" srvival is at sta!e in such a scenario and the loss of Baiwan would li+ewise sinify theloss of the reime7s rip on power.



A$ No Nationalism=China >ill %e Nice

'ai#an crisis ma!es escalation inevita+le

Shlapa!, $**8Ma"id A. Shlapa+, Senior &nternational ;olicy Analyst j 1AM, et al, 4@, “A Duestion of >alance,” 1AM, http://www.rand.or/pu)s/monoraphs/4@/1AM!$=999.pdf

Bhe factors descri)ed in this chapter present somethin of a mied )a, and their collecti"e impact, in terms of the future sta)ility of the crossstrait relationship, is somewhat unpredicta)le. >ut we )elie"e that, in eneral, the

3tense sta+ilit"4 that characteri;ed the cross-strait confrontation prior to the mid63@@s is sufferin fromgradal erosion( Bhe de)ate concernin so"ereinty o"er Baiwan has e"ol"ed dramatically. Boday, this dispute pits a >eiin o"ernment that insists thereis only one China of which Baiwan is a part aainst a Baiwan that still retains many formal trappins of )ein a Chinese state )ut increas6 inly de"elops anindependent national identity. otwithstandin the collapse of "oter support for the M;;, nearly all sinificant political parties in Baiwan now accept the notion that any future

arranement with China must recei"e the separate appro"al of Baiwan7s 4 million "oters. For >eiin, the emerin Baiwanese national identit" raises the profondl" #orrisome prospect that if nification is dela"ed for too long, the 'ai#an ese people #ill +e

n#illing to accept an" arrangement that su)sumes them within a “Chinese” state or confederation. =radual chanes alon these lines seem unli+ely to pro"ide the

spar+ for conflict, )ut they cold provide a +ac!drop for crisis if %ei&ing concldes that long-term trends are trning

po#erfll" against them( Bhe rapidly rowin cross6strait economic relationship means that >eiin can now inflict sinificant pain on Baiwan if it so chooses. >ut, to date,

>eiin has had difficulty translatin this economic le"erae into meaninful political results, other than as a de"ice for sinalin its irritation with Baipei. &f >eiin loses hope that

economic and social maneu"ers can slow or re"erse forces on Baiwan t hat run athwart of at least e"entual reunificaton, the attracti"eness , in a crisis, of militar"

options is li!el" to increase( &n Baiwan, meanwhile, ad"ocates of reater independence fear that gro#ing economic ties #ill mean

3time is not on their side ,” and they may feel the need to push more pro"ocati"e measures when political circumstances i"e them thechance. >eiin7s aner at what it saw as Chen Shui6)ian7s pro"ocati"e )eha"ior encouraed a danerous shift in the ;1C7s “red lines” for threatenin force aainst Baiwan. >eiin sees Chenand his allies as patholoical “en"elope6pushers” constantly loo+in for ways to promote the island7s independence, and the percei"ed need to +eep Chen )oed in caused China to shift awayfrom the four clear, relati"ely easyto6 follow “red lines” that it warned Baiwan not to cross in the past. &nstead, China has ra"itated toward more "aue, am)iuous “red areas” and it is more

li+ely to define (or redefine# these situationally and reacti"ely durin periods of crisis. Bhis am)iuity and improvisation cold +ecome dangeros

sorces of misperception dring a crisis ( Bhe com)ination of more than a decade of ;1C military moderni?ation and flat Baiwanesedefense spendin ha"e transformed the )alance across the strait away from one that had lon fa"ored Baiwan. &n the heat of any future cross6strait crisis, this shift in the percei"ed )alance of

forces seems to remo"e an important impediment to Chinese use of force.

Nationalism #ill force Chinese aggression over 'ai#an

<ames anicom, ;h.M 1esearch Fellow in the Asian &nstitute at the *ni"ersity of Boronto, Fe)ruary $**2, “ear6term &nsta)ility in the Baiwan StraitR” Security Challenes,Eolume um)er 3, http://www.securitychallenes.or.au/Article;MFs/"olno3$anicom.pdf

Bhis article illustrates how rowin nationalist pressres in Chinese o"ernment and society could pressre o"ernin elites into a

demonstration of force in the 'ai#an Strait in the near ftre. &n doin so, it challenes the two pre"ailin orthodo assessmentsof cross6Strait security. Bhe first "iews the cross6Strait relationship as tense )ut sta)le, the second "iews war )etween the *S and China in the Strait as ine"ita)le in the lon term. &n

contrast, this article contends that a military crisis is possi)le in the short term as a reslt of internal domestic

pressres on the leadership. &n a crisis o"er Baiwan, Chinese leadership elites will )e under pressre fromthree domestic sorces that cold inhi+it their a+ilit" to prse a conciliator" soltion. Bhese three sources

are: hardline elements of the ;0A, remaining 'hird 0eneration elites, and nationalist segments of

the poplation. &t concludes with an eamination of the policy implications for all actors in the Strait. &n short, it is imperati"e that the Fourth =eneration7s Baiwan policyappears to )e ma+in proress towards reunification.



A$ China no#s it #old lose

'ai#an is critical to regime legitimac" - China #ill go to #ar

Lampton *1

NMa"id 0ampton is director of China studies at <ohns -op+ins School of Ad"anced &nternational Studies, and authorof the recent )oo+ Same >ed, Mifferent Mreams: $anain *.S.6China 1elations, 3@[email protected] &nter"iewwith Ma"id 0ampton, 43, http://www.p)s.or/w)h/paes/frontline/shows/china/inter"iews/lampton.htmlP

-ow danerous is the Baiwan issueR ... prior to the orld Brade Center )om)in and its aftermath, if you loo+ around the world today and as+edwhere in the world could two maor nuclear powers come into conflict, & would ha"e said that the only pro)a)le place 66 and it is pro)a)ly still

the onl" pro+a+le place 66 where two )i nuclear powers could come into conflict #old +e the 'ai#an Strait( &n effect, the pre"ention of Baiwan oin independent is a+soltel" critical to the leitimacy of the Chinese communist reime.

Chinese leaders )elie"e that, if they were to let Baiwan o independent and not respond, the" #old pro+a+l" +e

overthro#n +" their o#n nationalistic people. Bherefore, & thin+ they would )e willin to enae in what we miht callY self-defeating militar" adventres@ in order to pre"ent that result, even if the" !ne# the" #ere going to lose(

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/china/interviews/lampton.html

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/china/interviews/lampton.html



Ext – N!e >ar

A 'ai#an crisis escalates to US-China Nclear #ar – nothing chec!s this scenario

Charles 0laser is a ;rofessor of ;olitical Science and &nternational Affairs and Mirector of the &nstitute for Securityand Conflict Studies at the %lliot School of &nternational Affairs at =eore ashinton *ni"ersity. Bhis essay drawson his recent )oo+ 1ational Bheory of &nternational ;olitics, $arch/April $*11 N“ill China7s 1ise 0ead to arR”,Forein Affairs, ;u)lished )y the Council on Forein 1elations,http://www.stoe.+34.in.us/ourpaes/auto/434/33/34/H@H4H5/3365[4ill[4China!s[41ise[40ead[4to[4ar!.pdf, s)haP

Bhe prospects for a"oidin intense military competition and war may )e ood, )ut rowth in China7s power may ne"ertheless reLuire some chanes in *.S. forein policy that ashinton will find disareea)le 66 particularly reardin Baiwan. Althouh it lost control of Baiwan durin the Chinese Ci"il ar more than si decades

ao, China still considers Baiwan to )e part of its homeland, and unification remains a +ey political oal for >eiin. China has madeclear that it will use force if Baiwan declares independence, and much of China7s con"entional military )uildup has

)een dedicated to increasin its a)ility to coerce Baiwan and reducin the *nited States7 a)ility to inter"ene. >ecause

China places such hih "alue on Baiwan and )ecause the *nited States and China 66 whate"er they miht formally aree to 66 ha"e such different

attitudes reardin the leitimacy of the status Luo, the issue poses special daners and challenes for the *.S.6Chinese relationship,

placin it in a different cateory than <apan or South orea. A crisis o"er Baiwan could fairl" easil" escalate to nclear #ar, )ecause each step alon the way miht well seem rational to the actors in"ol"ed. Current *.S. policy is desined to reduce the pro)a)ility that

Baiwan will declare independence and to ma+e clear that the *nited States will not come to Baiwan7s aid if it does. e"ertheless, the *nited States wouldfind itself under pressure to protect Baiwan aainst any sort of attac+, no matter how it oriinated. =i"en the different

interests and perceptions of the "arious parties and the limited control ashinton has o"er Baipei7s )eha"ior, a crisis could unfold in which the*nited States found itself follo#ing events rather than leading them . Such daners ha"e )een around for decades, )ut onoinimpro"ements in China7s military capa)ilities may ma+e >eiin more willin to escalate a Baiwan crisis. &n addition to its impro"ed con"entional capa)ilities,

China is moderni?in its nuclear forces to increase their a)ility to sur"i"e and retaliate followin a lare6scale *.S.attac+. Standard deterrence theory holds that ashinton7s current a)ility to destroy most or all of China7s nuclearforce enhances its )arainin position. China7s nuclear moderni?ation miht remove that chec! on Chinese action,leadin >eiin to )eha"e more )oldly in future crises than it has in past ones. A *.S. attempt to preser"e its a)ilityto defend Baiwan, meanwhile, could fuel a con"entional and nuclear arms race. %nhancements to *.S. offensi"e taretincapa)ilities and strateic )allistic missile defenses miht )e interpreted )y China as a sinal of malin *.S. moti"es, leadin to further Chinese military efforts and aeneral poisonin of *S.6Chinese relations.

http://www.stjoe.k12.in.us/ourpages/auto/2012/11/12/53952540/11-0304%20Will%20China_s%20Rise%20Lead%20to%20War_.pdf






Ext – China >ill 0o to >ar

'he perception of US encroachment fels Chinese militarism

Lam $*15 (illy, adunct professor of history at the Chinese *ni"ersity of -on on and senior fellow at the<amestown Foundation., “>eiin7s Aressi"e ew Forein ;olicy V &mplications For Bhe South China Sea,” <une44nd, China >rief Eolume 3, no. 3, http://fortunascorner.wordpress.com/43//44/)eiins6aressi"e6new6forein6policy6implications6for6the6south6china6sea/.#Get if the *nited StatesIand other countries or )locs in the estern alliance such as the %uropean *nionIwere unwillin to resol"e differences with China in a

spirit of win6win reciprocity, >eiin has the past si months demonstrated that it is not shy a)out usin touh tactics at )oththe rhetorical and su)stanti"e le"els. At the >o7ao =lo)al Summit last April, Wi scolded a certain country for “)rinindisorder to a reion and e"en the world for the sa+e of its own self6interest” (China ews Ser"ice, April 8 ;eople7s Maily online,

April #. Bhe unnamed country is most li+ely the *nited States. Jne month later, Cui Bian+ai, the new Chinese Am)assador to the *.S.,warned ashinton aainst sidin with <apan o"er the latter7s so"ereinty disputes with China o"er the Miaoyu6Sen+a+u islands. &n a press inter"iew, Cui as+edashinton “not to lift up the )oulder that is <apan, and particularly not to allow this )oulder to crush its own feet” (;eople7s Maily Jnline, $ay 48 &fen.comN>eiinP, $ay 4#. “0iftin a )oulder to crush one7s own feet” was a well6+nown sayin of Chairman $ao. $oreo"er, durin ;remier 0i7s recent "isit to =ermany, theusually mild6mannered head of o"ernment surprised his host when he used usually stron lanuae to castiate %uropean “protectionists” who supported puniti"etariffs aainst China7s solar panels and telecom eLuipment. 0i warned these protectionists would “undou)tedly o down the road of perdition” (Ca)le BE news N-on

onP, $ay 4H8 China ews Ser"ice, $ay 4H#. 1hetorical fusillades pale )eside hard6power proection as >eiin is wieldin )oth the military and economic cards to further its diplomatic oals. Jne of Wi7s first missions upon )ecomin chairman of

the Central $ilitary Commission last o"em)er was to tell different ;0A units “to et ready to fiht and to win wars” (“Commander6in6

Chief Wi <inpin 1aises the >ar on ;0A QCom)at 1eadiness7,” China >rief, <anuary 39#. Compared to predecessors e6president <ian Teminand e6president -u, Wi is more ready to use military muscle to put pressure on real and potential ad"ersaries. Apartfrom committin unprecedented resources to )uildin state6of6the6art weapons, Wi in+ed a 2.H )illion deal to )uy1ussian etfihters and su)marines durin his $arch trip to 1ussia . &t was the larest Chinese purchase of 1ussian hardware in a decade

(China ews Ser"ice, $arch 48 1euters, $arch 4#. Almost on a daily )asis, Chinese authorities ha"e deployed marine policeassets in the "icinity of the Miaoyu6Sen+a+u islands to demonstrate China7s so"ereinty claims o"er the archipelao.Bhe ;0A also has )oosted the freLuency of war ames in the %ast China Sea and the South China Sea, includinna"al eercises in"ol"in all three of its maor fleets ($in ;ao, <une 38 Winhua, $arch 3#.

'ensions escalate #ith militar" drills, China prepared to stri!e 'ai#an shold the" declare independence

SC) 2=1 (South China $ornin ;ost, Baiwan military drill staes China attac+ scenario,http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/34959/taiwan6military6drill6staes6china6attac+6scenario#'ai#an started a compterised militar" drill on onda", set against an imagined scenario in #hich China

invades the island in $*12( Bhe fi"e6day eercise is part of the island7s )iest annual military manoeu"re which is

this year codenamed Q-an uan 4@7 (-an =lory 4@#, officials at the defence ministry said on $onday. 'he drillsimlates a srprise attac! +" the Chinese in $*12, follo#ed +" a large-scale invasion, the ministr" said,

#ithot explaining #h" the scenario is +eing staged in that particlar "ear( %t anal"sts said the time-frame

#as reasona+le, given China’s contined militar" development and its territorial disptes #ith neigh+oring

contries( “0oo+in ahead, we can epect China to put into ser"ice O to name ust a few O its first carrier )attleroup, stealth planes and Bype 93 amphi)ious assault ships,” said e"in Chen, editor6in6chief of the Baipei6)asedAsia6;acific Mefence $aa?ine. “China7s landin capa)ilities would )e sinificantly lifted once its forces are armedwith the amphi)ious assault ships, desined to carry transport, anti6su)marine and attac+ helicopters,” he said. Bheamphi)ious assault ships could )e used in its disputes in the %ast China Sea and the South China Sea, Chen added.7e also #arned of the threat from China’s deplo"ment of more than 1,** +allistic and crise missiles

targeting 'ai#an, as their accrac" has +een enhanced( 'ensions across the Baiwan Strait have eased since $aGin6eou7s China6friendly administration came to power in $** on a platform of )eefin up trade and tourismlin+s. -e was re6elected in <anuary last year. %t %ei&ing has still not rled ot the se of force against the island

shold it declare independence, even thogh 'ai#an has rled itself for more than six decades since their splitin 18<8 at the end of a civil #ar( 3.ver the past fe# "ears, ties across the Strait have improved and civil

exchanges have +een on the rise, +t militar" threat from the mainland has not accordingl" diminished,”Baiwanese army maor6eneral Bsen Fu6hsin told reporters last wee+. Bhe ;eople7s 0i)eration Army launched

)allistic missiles into waters near Baiwan durin a series of li"e6fire drills in 3@@H and 3@@, aimin to deter theBaiwanese from "otin for 0ee Ben6hui, the independence6minded president then see+in another four6year term.China halted its sa)re6rattlin only after the *nited States sent two aircraft carrier )attle roups to waters near theisland.



6mpact – A$ China %ad=andom



'rns Case

Chinese inflence means that contries sa" no to the plan

Ellis 11N1. %EA %00&S is a professor of national security studies, modelin, amin, and simulation with the Center for -emispheric Mefense Studies,with a research focus on 0atin America7s relationships with eternal actors, includin China, 1ussia, and &ran. China60atin America military

enaement: ood will, ood )usiness, and strateic position, Strateic Studies &nstitute, Auust 433, ;ae 54PAside from such scenarios, e"en in the )est of cases rowin China60atin America military enaement means that the *nited States will findits freedom of action in the reion constrained in ways that were not the case in the past. 0atin America is increasinly acLuirin options )eyond those offered )y

the *nited States, particularly as reardin its security cooperation, arms purchases, and personnel trainin . Bhis dynamic will chane how the reion7s o"ernments )arain when it comes to

access to )ases, intellience sharin, oint operations, and permission for *.S. direct action in the reion, for eample, counterdru and counterterrorism operations. At a minimum, Latin

American regimes #ill +e more li!el" to resist agreeing to U(S( re9ests that are perceived to violate their

sovereignt". >ased on its )eha"ior to date, it is li+ely that the ;1C will continue to epand its military enaement with 0atin America, includin arms sales, which will increase in"olume and sophistication, )uildin on the 5 demonstration of its eLuipment in the A0>A countries, capitali?in on +ey )rea+throuh transactions when they occurIwhether with ;eru and

Colom)ia, or elsewhereIin order to introduce end items into the mainstream arms mar+et of the reion. &n followin thi s course, althouh the ;1C will li+ely remainhihly attenti"e to the *.S. response, it is also li+ely to )ecome )older o"er time, particularly as the current 5th eneration Chinese leadership is superseded )y younerleaders who ha"e rown up in a ;1C that is an accepted political and economic power, confident of its place in the world.

And, Chinese cooperation !e" to extract concessions from the U(S( and ensres aid the" #ant

Gohnson *


From 0atin America's perspecti"e, epandin relations with China miht seem li+e a ood idea. &t offers the followin ad"antaes: ;restie.

Mealin with China, a maor world power, ele"ates a small country into the )i leaues of lo)al actors. &t supplies respect for thoseli"in in the shadow of the prosperous *.S. colossus. Bhe no"elty of freLuent hih6le"el Chinese "isits suests that American leaders, who "isit less often, ha"e

inored the reion. Meals with few reLuirements. China can )ar ain on the spot without a lot of ca"eats. &ts transactions are +ased

on simple exchanges( Bheir leaders ha"e )road authority to negotiate foreign deals without worryin a)outleislati"e o"ersiht, the rule of law, or altruistic o)ec ti"es. *nli+e estern leaders, Chinese leaders represent statemonopolies6which mesh well with 0atin American o"ernment ownership or manaement of telecommunications, minin, and enery

industries. Bhey do not need to )uild up 0atin American trade capacity to deal with di"erse )usinesses. 0e"erae aainst *ncle Sam.

China's epand in industries are a temporary )oon to resource6rich 0atin America. %ports (mostly commodities# to China

ha"e rown )y more than percent in fi"e years.NP Compared with *.S.60atin America trade (253 )illion in 45#, China's 25 )illion trade with

the reion miht seem inconseLuential.N9P -owe"er, Chi nese trade and in"estment i"es 0atin politi cians and )usiness elites, who

larely control commodities, a +argaining chip #hen dealing #ith the United States(





A$ China ills 7eg

Chinese inflence in Latin America doesn’t hrt hegemon"

Giang $**2


Bhe news media in the *nited States ha"e )een portrayin a wron perception of the de"elopment of Chineserelations with 0atin America. Jne editorial in the all Street <ournal, for instance, says, “Bhe rise of China in thereion could complicate *.S. efforts to control illeal immiration, weapons shipments, the dru trade and moneylaunderin )ecause China is cooperatin with 0atin countries that are not especially friendly toward those efforts.Some of these nations may try to use the Chinese alternati"e to challene *.S. heemony.”H Bhe *nited States7concern o"er the closer relationship )etween China and 0atin America is misplaced and nnecessar" . &t is well6+nown that 0atin America has +een on the path of reform and opening to the otside #orld for almost twodecades. &t endea"ors to attract more foreign investment and li)erali?e the mar+et so as to stimulate rowth. As aresult, China is only one of the economic partners with whom 0atin America has )een tryin to cooperate. Chinaunderstands well that 0atin America is the )ac+yard of the *nited States, so China has no intention #hatsoever to

challenge the American hegemon" in Latin America. >oth China and 0atin America ha"e )een openin to theoutside world. &n the ae of lo)ali?ation )oth of them should cooperate to psh for#ard Soth-Sothcooperation . As a matter of fact, further cooperation )etween China and 0atin America will +eneM t reional peaceand de"elopment in the Asia6;aciZ c reion and in 0atin America. Such an outcome would also certainly favor the

United States(

Lots of factors prevent great po#er conflict #ithot hegemon"

Hett#eis 1* (Christopher <. ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at Bulane, Manerous Bimes6Bhe &nternational ;olitics of=reat ;ower ;eace, p. 3H6#

&f the only thin standin )etween the world and chaos is the *S military presence, then an adustment in rand stratey would )e eceptionally

counter6producti"e. >ut it is worth recallin that no ne of the other eplanation s for the decline of war O nuclear weapons,comple economic interdependence , international and domestic political instittions , e"olution in ideas and

norms O necessitate an acti"ist America to maintain their "alidity. ere American to )ecome more restrained ,nuclear weapons would still affect the calculations of the would )e aressor 8 the process of lo)ali?ation wouldcontinue , deepenin the compleity of economic interdependence 8 the *nited ations could still deploy peace+eepers where

necessary8 and democracy would not shri"el where it currently eists . $ore importantly, the idea that war isa worthwhile way to resol"e conflict would ha"e no reason to return . As was arued in chapter 4, normati"ee"olution is typically unidirectional. Strateic restraint in such a world )e "irtually ris+ free.

China in Latin America doesn’t hrt heg

-e Li is ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee in orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. 0i has pu)lisheddo?ens of articles in ournals such as <ournal of Strateic Studies, ;ro)lems of ;ost6Communism, Bhe -istorian,;olicy Studies <ournal, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science, Asian ;erspecti"e, American <ournal of ChineseStudies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo+s. Bhis study is supported )y a Ful)riht scholarship and a

faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac+ Collee, 3636$** N“1i"alry )etween Baiwan and the ;1C in 0atinAmerica”, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science8 Sep4H, Eol. 3 &ssue 4, p,http://lin+.spriner.com/content/pdf/3.3/>[email protected], s)haP

After a period of fundamental reassessment in the Chinese forein policy in the late 3@@s , China has adopted a stratey desined not tochallene the *.S. in spite of the fact that the *.S. support for Baiwan is seen as a continued affront to China7s sense of national so"ereinty. &n contrast to adecade ao, the world's most populous country now larely wor+s within the international system. &t has em)raced much of the current constellation of internationalinstitutions, rules, and norms as a means to promote its national interests. And it has e"en souht to shape the e"olution of that system in limited ways. H >u shu di

Ndo not see+ enemyP has )ecome an essential part of China7s new forein policy. H5 &t has )ecome clear that >eiin hasta+en a less confrontational, more sophisticated, more confident, and at times, more constructi"e approach toward reional and lo)al





affairs. Bhe current Chinese Communist ;arty leadership, li+e its predecessors since Men Wiaopin, remains committed to a forein policy that creates eternalconditions conduci"e to China7s domestic need for stron economic rowth. Bhe war on terrorism has pro"ided important opportunities to sta)ili?e the *.S.6Chinarelationship. Since the early 3@@s >eiin7s policy toward the *.S. is to “strenthen confidence, reduce trou)le, de"elop cooperation, and not see+ confrontation.”

>eiin has attempted to +eep a low profile and a"oid open confrontation with the *nited States. Bhere remain concerns a)out possi)le isolation and encirclement )y hostile powers: >eiin is uneasy a)out the *.S. in"ol"ement in Central Asia, uncertain a)out the American relations with &ndiaand a)out the ABJ epansion. < J*1A0 JF C -&%S% ; J0&B&CA0 S C&%C% @5 As a matter of fact, some would arue that, today, China is no loner a“risin power”I)ut a “risen power.” HH &n a sense, the emerence of a new reat power in an important reion could intrinsically harm *.S. interests, since relati"eAmerican power and influence in that reion miht proportionately decline unless the *nited States epends more efforts and resources to counteract the new player.Bhe deree to which increased Chinese power miht endaner *.S. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how >eiin see+s to employ this power. An ad"ersarial*.S.6China relationship would find >eiin usin its rowin strenth in a purposeful and systematic assault on *.S. interests, as the ;1C would tend to "iew *.S.interests as )arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese oals. Bhis scenario would constitute a serious challene to *.S. interests, with potential to de"elop into a new

Cold ar. H ;resently, China has carefully crafted a 0atin American policy that is tryin to a"oid antaoni?in the*nited States in the reion. Bhis is due to se"eral factors. First, China is well aware that the *nited States has traditionallyrearded 0atin America as within its sphere of influence and as a conseLuence that ashinton is "ery sensiti"e a)out >eiin7s acti"ities in

its “)ac+yard.” H Second, from the standpoint of the Chinese military and others in >eiin, China was (and is# wea+, and li+ely to remain so for many years,

especially in relations to the *.S. H9 Bherefore, >eiin cannot afford to eopardi?e its relations with ashinton to maintainmilitary presence in the reion. Bhird, >eiin considers that China should contri)ute to the de"elopment of the Bhird orld, )ut should

try to a"oid unilateral “contri)ution” in the security area, since the *.S. is "ery sensiti"e in this area, and it could easily lead to

misunderstandins. H@ Fourth, >eiin also has reali?ed that a more prosperous, de"eloped China will continue to needAmerican capital, ad"anced technoloy, and certain manufactured oods. Bhus it is in >eiin7s interests to upholdthe status Luo of supportin a li)eral international trade reime and preparin themsel"es to )e efficient competitors. &n fact, some of the fears associatedwith risin China are illusory. An eample is the notion that the ;0A will deny *.S. warship access to the ;anama Canal )ased on the -utchhisonhampoa Company7s control of the port facilities at )oth end of the canal. -utchhison hampoa is controlled )y -on on )illionaire 0i a6shin, who has past

)usiness lin+ with the ;0A. Accordin to Menny 1oy, should this threat materiali?e, air)orne *.S. troops could Luic+ly and easily sei?e control of the canal. &nthe near future, China is not capa)le of proectin military power )eyond Asia despite its lo)al aspirations. &t could )ecome in"ol"ed in distant disputes only so lon as they remain "ery small in scope. &t is should )e noted that >eiin no loner lam)astes of American imperialism

since it is not in the >eiin7s lon6term interests to o"erthrow the present world order. -ence >eiin pro"es less and less willin to support0atin American countries7 direct confrontation with ashinton. China continues to attac+ the *.S. on "arious 0atin American issues:such as the *.S. em)aro aainst Cu)a, 1&EA01G >%B%% BA&A AM B-% ;1C & 0AB& A$%1&CA @H yet >eiin7s support for the economic nati

onalism and anti6lo)ali?ation mo"ement has )ecome less salient. Chinese see+ a delicate )alance in encourain 0atin Americancountries to distance themsel"es from the *nited States and sustain their economic de"elopment, which the *.S. islon considered as a rowth enine. Bhere are still se"eral disareements )etween >eiin and ashinton in the reion. &t is widely +nown that the>ush Administration wishes to remo"e the Castro reime, which it deems unresponsi"e and detrimental. >eiin is +nown as a primary supporter of -a"ana. &naddition to Cu)a, >eiin see+s to stay on ood terms with the left6oriented reimes such as Eene?uela under ChU"e? and >ra?il under 0ula, )oth of them could notsee eye to eye with ashinton on a "ariety of issues. After the collapse of the former So"iet )loc, there are few communist reimes that >eiin call friends in theworld today. China needs a stron ally in 0atin America. Since the early 3@@s, the two countries ha"e )een cooperatin closely in a "ariety of international issues.China supports Cu)a in maintainin its current political system and in clashes with the *.S., whereas Cu)a acti"ely supports China in its admission to the orldBrade Jrani?ation (BJ#, China's positions on human rihts, Baiwan, and Bi)et issues. Counteractin the *.S. stance also moti"ates the Chinese support of Cu)a. onetheless, this does not translate into enormous financial commitment. At present, Cu)a, >eiin7s staunchest ally in the reion, owes much of its de)t to %urope,

<apan, Arentina, $eico, Eene?uela, and 1ussia. 3 &t is apparent that any attempt )y >eiin to play a “Cu)a card” within the larercontet of the Baiwan pro)lem (i.e. parallel arms sales, etc.# appears outlandish, at least for the near and medium term. 4>eiin offers larely moral support for -a"ana and sees its economic reform as a model for the Cu)an reform. China7s continued support of Cu)a appears moti"ated )y desire to maintain “old friendship” with -a"ana. >eiin7s close relations with -a"ana are as much lia)ilities as assets. *nli+e the former So"iet *nion, Chinadoes not ha"e the means nor the will to ma+e a military commitment to Cu)a. Facin hue de"elopment needs at home, >eiin prefers to use trade promotion and oint "entures to maintain friends in the reion. Bo date, the Chinese challenes are mainly from the economic arena. %conomically, the Chinese are competin withthe *.S. for Eene?uela7s oil eports and mar+et for manufactured products. =i"en the current poor state of *.S.6 Eene?uelan relations under the ChU"e? o"ernment,American o)ser"ers worry that Eene?uelan enery areements with China ultimately may ser"e to di"ert oil from the *nited States. 5 hile Eene?uelan eneryofficials ha"e denied this, in Mecem)er 45, ;resident ChU"e? was reported to ha"e referred to Eene?uela7s lon oil6 producin history as “3 years of domination

)y the *nited States.” -e asserted that “ow we are free, and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland.” H Mespite its disareementswith ashinton a)out many issues, >eiin is unli+ely to threaten the fundamental interests of the *nited States inthe estern < J*1A0 JF C -&%S% ; J0&B&CA0 S C&%C% @ -emisphere. &n comparison with the *nited States influence in 0atin America and the

Cari))ean, China7s role in the reion remains marinal. So far, >eiin has adopted a low6+ey approach in order to pre"ent pu)licconfrontation with the *nited States. As China )ecomes an esta)lished power in lo)al system, it is in China7s own interests to see0atin America and the Cari))ean to enoy political sta)ility and economic prosperity.



A$ China ills Local Economies=Sta+ilit"

Chinese inflence !e" to Latin America’s econom"

.’Neil 1$

NShannon, Senior Fellow for 0atin America Studies, China7s %conomic 1ole in 0atin America,3/4/34,http://)los.cfr.or/oneil/434/3/4/chinas6economic6role6in6latin6america/P

Jn the ood side, trade with China has helped spur 0atin America7s economic rowth. &ncreased ties with China ha"e played a )i part of the stron ()y 0atin American standards# =M; rowth of last decade. %specially for >ra?il, Arentina, and ;eru,

connections to the world7s economic enine were important in wa+e of the world financial crisis. Comparin >ra?il7s and

$eico7s rowth rates in 43 tells that storyIand the positi"e role that China can and does play. China7s trade has also )enefited 0atin America7sconsumers. Bhe )i story of the last two decades is the rise of a middle class in many 0atin American countries. Achie"in a middle class lifestylerelies in part on hiher incomes, )ut also on reater purchasin power. Access to more oods of )etter Luality and at

lower prices, has chaned the li"es of many. China7s sales of clothin, electronics, and e"en cars ha"e )enefited those in the middle andlower middle ran+s.

6nsta+ilit" is inevita+le

%lanco, *8 (0on 0i"e Memocracy: Bhe Meterminants of ;olitical &nsta)ility in 0atin America,https://docs.oole.com/"iewerRurl\http://www.ou.edu/cas/econ/wppdf/insta)ilityinla

[4H4r.pdfVem)edded\trueVchrome\true#1an+ed as the third most unsta)le reion in the world in the post6war era, political insta)ility has )een a

per"asi"e pro)lem in 0atin America . 3 &n our sample of 39 0atin American countries from 3@364, there were 4coups d7etat, 5H3 political assassinations, 43 riots, and 33 crises that threatened to )rin down the sittino"ernment. 4 Jnly three 0atin American countries were consistently democratic o"er the thirty year period:Costa 1ica, Colom)ia, and Eene?uela. All of the rest of the countries switched from a democracy to anautocracy (or "ice "ersa# at least once. &n sum, political insta)ility is a persistent and pernicious pro)lem in thereion. 5 =i"en the many studies that document the neati"e relationship )etween insta)ility and capitalaccumulation (Alesina V ;erotti (3@@#8 Alesina et.al. (3@@##, it is li+ely that this insta)ility has hamperedeconomic de"elopment in the reion. &n this paper, we see+ to unco"er the factors )ehind this insta)ility. &n a&n this paper we analy?e the determinants of political insta)ility in a panel of 39 0atin American countriesfrom 3@3 to 4. ot only is 0atin America an interestin reion to study )ecause of it7s unusually persistent pro)lems with insta)ility, )ut focusin on a small sample helps us to a"oid potential pro)lems with poolin data from a lare set of "ery different countries. H e find three main interestin results: First, reimetype is a sinificant determinant of insta)ility in the area. Countries with hiher democracy scores also ha"e lowera"erae political insta)ility, which indicates that recent mo"es to increased democracy in the reion may )rina)out less insta)ility in the future. Bhis result is tempered thouh )y our findin that lon li"ed democraciesha"e a reater chance of eperiencin insta)ility than eLually lon li"ed autocracies. Second, we find thatincome ineLuality and ethnic fractionali?ation are )oth important factors )ehind insta)ility . Countries with low (orhih# le"els of ineLuality ha"e less a"erae insta)ility than countries with a"erae le"els of ineLuality, and ethnicfractionali?ation has a non linear effect on political insta)ility. &ncreases in ethnic fractionali?ation lower insta)ilityuntil a certain le"el of di"ersity, at which point any increases in di"ersity are associated with hiher politicalinsta)ility. Bhird, we find that many of the macroeconomic "aria)les included in our estimation (includin thele"el and standard de"iation of inflation and o"ernment )udet deficit# are only wea+ly sinificant at )est.Jnly laed "alues of trade openness and in"estment are helpful in eplainin current political insta)ility.

Drg #ar fels insta+ilit" in Latin America

CS6S, A;1 4, $*1* (atherine -u))ard, “Areas to atch: Bhe Mru ar in CentralAmerica,” http://csis.or/)lo/areas6watch6dru6war6central6america, C, accessed on 3/3/3#

Central American states are findin themsel"es increasinly cauht in the crossfire as $eico, Colom)ia, and the*.S. step up efforts to com)at dru6traffic+in cartels. Crac+downs on air)orne and maritime shipments from SouthAmerica are forcin $eican dru traffic+ers to switch to land6)ased smulin throuh Central America. As thesmulers increase their presence, they are )rinin "iolence, corruption, and political insta)ility to states that arealready wea+, poor, and unprepared to deal with the loomin threat.

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2012/10/26/chinas-economic-role-in-latin-america/

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.ou.edu/cas/econ/wppdf/instabilityinla%2520rg.pdf&embedded=true&chrome=true


http://csis.org/blog/areas-watch-drug-war-central-america




http://csis.org/blog/areas-watch-drug-war-central-america



%"idence shows that the le"el of dru traffic passin throuh Central America has s+yroc+eted in the past two yearsalone. Accordin to a report from the *.S. ational Mru &ntellience Center , less than one percent of the estimated to tons of cocaine that departed South America for the *.S. in 4 transited Central America.Bodayofficials estimate that )etween sity and ninety percent of the cocaine that enters the *.S. tra"els throuhCentral America. Bhis astoundin increase in land6)ased traffic+in is the result of concerted efforts )y the American, $eican, andColom)ian o"ernments to increase monitorin and interdiction of lare ships and aircraft, the "ehicles traditionallyused for smulin drus. As a result of these efforts, officials estimate that the aerial traffic+in of cocaine hasdecreased )y as much as ninety percent, and maritime traffic+in has decreased )y an estimated sity percent. >ecause of this challene to traditional traffic+in mechanisms, smulers were forced to find other means oftransportin their dru shipments. Accordin to a SB1ABFJ1 reportk, )y early 49 a series of de"elopments inse"eral Central American countries suested that dru6traffic+in orani?ations O $eican cartels in particular Owere increasinly esta)lishin new land6)ased smulin routes throuh Central America.Bhe effects of this increase in dru6smulin acti"ity are already )einnin to )e felt in some Central Americancountries. Mru "iolence is on the rise in -onduras, a +ey transit point for Colom)ian cocaine headed for the *nitedStates, where approimately 3, people were +illed in 4@ in dru6related incidents.Another area of particular concern is =uatemala, which the *.S. State Mepartment calls “the epicenter of the druthreat.” &n =uatemala, corruption and inadeLuate law enforcement efforts ha"e led to low interdiction le"els durinthe past se"eral years. $eican dru traffic+in orani?ations ha"e ta+en ad"antae of this situation and mo"edsome of their operations into =uatemala. %ntire reions of the country are now essentially under the control of these orani?ations, the most "isi)le of which is the $eican roup +nown as the Tetas.Bhere is reason for concern that the reion will increasinly )ecome a )attleround in the $eican cartel war

)ecause the conditions in many Central American countries ma+e them particularly "ulnera)le to attac+. Bhey areunderde"eloped, ha"e wea+ udicial systems, and ha"e often recently emered from conflicts that left them awashwith weapons. Jne * official said, “All of these are conditions for "iolence and chaos, and in some instancese"en loss of control of territory, and so traffic+ers are aware of that and they always loo+ for the path of leastresistance.”

Horeign Direct 6nvestment +" China +oosts gro#th

1hys Gen!ins, *

%nriLue Mussel ;eters, $auricio $esLuita $oreira, Bhe &mpact of China on 0atin America and the Cari))ean,orld Me"elopment, Eolume , &ssue 4, Fe)ruary, ;aes 4H64H, &SS H6HW,

http://d.doi.or/3.33/.worldde".4..34.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/SHHW3@@5# eywords: China8 0atin America8 trade8forein direct in"estment8 competition

Bhe increased competiti"eness of China and its epanded presence in world mar+ets is ha"in a maor impact on )oth de"eloped and de"elopin countries. hile this has )een etensi"ely analy?ed from the point of "iew ofde"eloped countries (Cass et al., 4 and ;rasad, 45#, much less is +nown a)out the implications for 0atinAmerica. A decade ao trade )etween China and the reion was limited )ut this has chaned dramatically. Chinesefirms are also )einnin to in"est in 0atin America. Bhese rowin economic lin+s ha"e )een reflected politicallywith the "isit of Chinese ;resident -u <intao to the reion in 45, while a num)er of 0atin American leaders ha"e

)een to >eiin.As can )e seen from Fiure 3, the rapid rowth of 0atin American trade with China dates from the end of the 3@@s.Murin 3@@@–4H China’s imports from 0atin America increased se"enfold while its eports to the reion more

than tripled. Startin in the mid63@9s most of the countries of the reion had underta+en far reachin economicreforms, which included trade li)erali?ation, pri"ati?ation and reductions in fiscal deficits. >y the end of the 3@@s,inflation rates had )een )rouht down, the 0atin American economies were far more open than they had )een twodecades earlier and most countries had adopted echane rate policies which a"oided etremes of o"er"aluation(&M>, 3@@#. As a result eporters in 0atin America were well placed to respond to the )oom in import demand fromChina. At the same time, the increased openness of the 0atin American economies ena)led Chinese eports to

penetrate the domestic mar+et, especially after China oined the BJ in 43, althouh some restrictions remainedin a num)er of countries for se"eral years after that. &n terms of the channels of interaction )etween the AsianMri"ers and 0atin America, this paper concentrates on the first two identified )y aplins+y and $essner, trade and

http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs25/25921/cocaine.htm

http://www.justice.gov/ndic/


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/04/world/americas/04guatemala.html?_r=1


http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090326_central_america_emerging_role_drug_trade



http://www.drugaddictiontreatment.com/addiction-news/drug-crimes/drug-violence-escalates-in-honduras-2/

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf&embedded=true&chrome=true

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50744



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE52P0KB20090326





http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X07001994#bib7


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X07001994#fig1


http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs25/25921/cocaine.htm





http://www.drugaddictiontreatment.com/addiction-news/drug-crimes/drug-violence-escalates-in-honduras-2/


http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50744







http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X07001994#fig1




forein direct in"estment (FM&#. Bhe net section focuses on the direct impacts and the followin section on theindirect impacts of China on the reion in terms of the competiti"e threats which it poses, )oth in terms of 0atinAmerica’s eports to third countries and as a pole of attraction for FM&, as well as the impacts on the reion’s termsof trade. here possi)le these sections identify the countries and sectors which are most affected )y China.;articular attention is i"en to the two larest 0atin American economies, >ra?il and $eico. Bhese are often seenas ha"in contrastin eperiences, with >ra?il ha"in achie"ed maor eports of primary commodities to China,

while $eico has )een neati"ely affected )y Chinese competition in eport mar+ets, particularly the *nited States.Bhe penultimate section of the paper discusses the impacts which the rowth of China is ha"in on de"elopment in0atin America and the Cari))ean with a particular emphasis on the possi)le implications for po"erty reduction in thereion. Bhe concludin section identifies maor policy challenes for 0atin America arisin from the rowth ofChina.

ising Chinese inflence creates massive economic +enefits for Latin America

%lK;9e;-Lido" et al J (<ore >lU?Lue?60idoy 6 %conomic >ureau of the ;resident, Spain, <a"ier 1odrbue? O%conomist at the =lo)al $ar+ets Mepartment of >anco >il)ao Ei?caya, Arentaria and <a"ier Santiso 6 ChiefMe"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM, <une 4, “A=%0 J1M%E&0R C-&A7S B1AM% &$;ACB J 0AB& A$%1&CA %$%1=&= $A1%BS,” J%CM Me"elopmentCentre, https://www3.oecd.or/china/H5.pdf#

China7s economic )oom is a maor lo)al chane. Bhat the emerence of China is not new, is underlined )y Anus $addison in his

seminal wor+s for the Me"elopment Centre 3 . At the )einnin of the 3@th Century China still represen ted nearly a third of world =M; )eforelosin round. J"er the past decade, howe"er, the $iddle indom has eperienced accelerated epansion. hile this emerence is

percei"ed )oth as a threat to and as an opportunity )y other de"elopin countries, in the 0atin American contetChina loo+s more li+e a “trade anel” and a “helpin hand” as well as )ein an outlet for hue amounts ofcommodities from the reion. China7s trade impact on 0atin America is positi"e , )oth directly, throuh a )oom ofeports and indirectly, throuh )etter terms of trade. Bhe emerence of China, this paper ma+es plain, is also a challene for 0atinAmerican countries. &t reinforces the urent case for more reforms, in particular in the area of infrastructure, to maintain the continent7scomparati"e ad"antae. For those that are )enefitin from the Chinese )oom, the maor policy challene will )e to capitalise on the Chinesewindfall without )ein pushed into to a raw materials corner and to remain interated in the "alue chain of lo)al production. Bhis paper

presents empirical and detailed e"idence of the trade impact of China on 0atin America, and finds that it is one ofthe reions that stands to )enefit most from the emerence of this new lo)al player. Bhe authors emphasise theneed for the reion to capitalise on this windfall in a more acti"e way. &f this opportunity for 0atin America is to )e sei?ed andthe reion is to draw the maimum )enefits from its traditional endowments, its economies will need to mo"e more acti"ely and rapidly towardsmore "alue6added industries and a"oid mere dependence on raw materials eports. >eyond this Chinese impact on 0atin America,

what is also emerin is a more promisin and structural relationship )ein )uilt )etween Asia and 0atin America.Bhe economic ties )etween the two reions were already stron, )ut the emerence of China and &ndia is a maorchane in the scale of these relations. For %urope and the *nited States this is also a wa+e6up call.

Chinese presence in Latin America !e" to economic gro#th in +oth areas

Qi J=/43 (Gunfei O researcher on international relations, <une 9th 43, “Wi's "isit to 0atin America enhancesrelations,” China.or, http://www.china.or.cn/opinion/436/9/content!4@[email protected]#

;resident Wi's first state "isit to 0atin American and the Cari))ean reion has profound implications for relations )etween the reion and China. Brinidad and Bo)ao is an important player in the %nlish6spea+in Cari))ean reion and also one ofChina's most important partners in the reion. Costa 1ica is the only Central American nation to ha"e esta)lished diplomatic relations withChina, while $eico, as an important emerin mar+et economy, has maintained a strateic partnership with China. -on 0ei, spo+espersonfor China's $inistry of Forein Affairs, commented that China "iewed the "isit as an opportunity to enhance political trust, reciprocalcooperation and friendship )etween China and the three Cari))ean nations, as well as with other nations in 0atin America and the Cari))ean.China has wor+ed to impro"e ties with 0atin America in order to promote mutual )enefits, understandin andcooperation, rather than to ain a competiti"e ede in 0atin America. >ureonin trade relations )etween Chinaand 0atin America is the maor dri"in force for impro"ed ties )etween the two. China is now 0atin America'ssecond larest tradin partner and maor in"estment source. &t is also the larest tradin partner of >ra?il and Chile and second

larest tradin partner of Arentina, $eico, ;eru and Eene?uela. Bhe "alue of trade )etween China and 0atin Americaeceeded *S24H )illion )y 434, with 0atin America )ecomin China's second larest forein in"estmentdestination. &mpro"ed economic ties )etween China and 0atin America are mutually )eneficial, with 0atin



American countries in need of Chinese in"estment in infrastructure construction, automo)ile manufacture andnatural resources eploitation, while China has a hue demand for 0atin America's rich natural resources. Mespite the"isi)le )enefits, China will face considera)le challenes as it loo+s to increase its in"estment in 0atin America. Bo this end, it is crucial thatChina learns more a)out 0atin American mar+ets and their rules and reulations. &n"estment in the reion's oil and mineral resources will )ehampered )y such comple issues as la)or laws, local community o)ections and the concerns of the en"ironmental protection lo))y. %conomiccooperation )etween China and 0atin6America is still somewhat stymied )y the fact that )oth sides possess a similar industrial structure whichhas resulted in increased trade friction )etween the two sides. Some small and medium6si?ed enterprises in 0atin America fear that they willlose their competiti"e ad"antae in industries where China also has a share. Mifferent industrial sectors in 0atin America are also di"ided

reardin their o"ernments' China policy, with manufacturin sectors as+in for trade protection and the minin and aricultural industriesdemandin easier access to the Chinese mar+et. China and 0atin6America are set to enhance comprehensi"e relations, andthere is a need for )oth sides to deepen their strateic cooperation )ased on mutual political trust, enlare their common interests, ta+in tradecooperation as a +ey factor, and safeuard food security throuh cooperation in aricultural production. %conomic cooperation )etweenChina and 0atin America should o )eyond trade and reach into areas includin in"estment and scientificinno"ation. China should increase its direct in"estment in 0atin America and participate in its infrastructure uprade process. Bhe two sideswill also promote people6to6people echanes and cultural communication.

Experts agree China’s economic inflence on Latin America is +eneficial

%lK;9e;-Lido" et al J (<ore >lU?Lue?60idoy 6 %conomic >ureau of the ;resident, Spain, <a"ier 1odrbue? O%conomist at the =lo)al $ar+ets Mepartment of >anco >il)ao Ei?caya, Arentaria and <a"ier Santiso 6 ChiefMe"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM, <une 4, “A=%0 J1M%E&0R C-&A7S B1AM% &$;ACB J 0AB& A$%1&CA %$%1=&= $A1%BS,” J%CM Me"elopmentCentre, https://www3.oecd.or/china/H5.pdf#

Chinese trade impact on 0atin America is, in the short and medium run and in eneral terms, positi"e. Bhe results ofour study are consistent with others such as the one produced )y &$F economists and other economists (0all and e

iss, 45#. Jn a"erae, and from the point of "iew of trade impact, 0atin America will )enefit from increased Chinese demandand rowth. &n comparati"e terms, as stressed )y the &$F, the only net loser will )e South Asia, while for 0atin America thewelfare effect will )e positi"e. For se ctors such as ariculture in 0atin America, the estimated impact of fasterChinese interation around 44 is clearly positi"e (with output up )y 5 per cent#. Bhe clear losers will )e, howe"er, sectors such astetiles and from the point of "iew of countries, the ones specialisin in la)our6intensi"e manufactures eports. $ore detailed analysis would )ehowe"er needed in particular referrin to the trade impact of China in the home mar+ets of 0atin American countries such as, for eample,$eico. &n terms of trade relations, China and 0atin America ha"e )een intensi"ely de"elopin their relations o"er the past decade . Bhe trade"olume )etween China and 0atin America rose from 24 )illion in the early 3@@s to 23H )illion in 43, accordin to Chinese statistics. Since4, >ra?ilian and Chinese trade has leapt nearly threefold, a )lessin for the >ra?ilian inde)ted economy and especially for the eporters of

soy)eans, steel and iron ore, which accounted for two6thirds of the oods eported. &n eneral, 0atin America, has a surpluscommodity endowment that )oosts syneries with China needs and stratey to secure food and enery imports inorder to a"oid shortaes.



A$ China ills Enviro

Destrction inevita+le and alt cases

)rada and Staffer 15

N;aulo ;rada and Caroline Stauffer, 1euters, 0eal uncertainty cuts proress aainst Ama?on deforestation, /H/3,http://www.reuters.com/article/43//H/us6)ra?il6deforestation6id*S>1%@H53M@43HP

A year after adoptin chanes to its lon6standin forestry policy, >ra?il is strulin to implement the new rules, addin to uncertainty that appears

to )e fuelin an increase in clearin of the Ama?on rainforest. 1eulators, landowners and farmers say they don't +now how lon it will ta+e toenact the new Yforestry code,Y a dense law that, amon other rules, o"erns the amount of woodland that must )e preser"ed on farms and other producti"e property.Jn ednesday, ;resident Milma 1ousseff reconi?ed the scale of the chore, especially a crucial first step to reister >ra?il's more than H million farms and ranches, a process essential to demarcate eistin cropland from protected terrain. Ye ha"e to consider this one of the reat challenes for the country,Y she said durin a speechin the capital, >rasilia. Ye will pro"e that we ha"e solid instruments to maintain a )alance )etween the producti"ity of farmin, ranchin and forestry and the protection of the en"ironment.Y 1ousseff spo+e at an e"ent where >ra?il updated pre"ious deforestation fiures, showin an annual decrease throuh <uly 434. Bhe

fiures )uild on proress of pre"ious years. $ore recent data, howe"er, suests the trend has since re"ersed, as chanes to en"ironmental policy, the slowrollout of the new forest code and )i onoin de"elopment proects create a scenario that acti"ists say fostersdestruction. ;reliminary o"ernment fiures, and those of a pri"ate research institute, show an upswin in cleared forest since Auust 434. Meforestation fiures,which radually et updated as on6the6round research complements satellite data, are tallied monthly and compiled in an annual ta)ulation that )eins in Auust,

when the Ama?on dry season ma+es imaery the most relia)le. For farmers and ranchers in >ra?il, 0atin America's )iest country andone of the world's top aricultural product eporters, dou)ts a)out the new code are cloudin lon6term plannin,especially with reard to fields that may need reforestin. *nless the o"ernment enacts the code swiftly, the lawcould )ecome "ulnera)le to the sort of de)ate and calls for modification that plaued the pre"ious code. YBhis is areulatory transition that must not last any loner than necessary,Y warned Andre 0ima, a pu)lic policy ad"isor at the Ama?on %n"ironmental 1esearch =roup, or&;A$. hen lawma+ers last year adopted the new code, >ra?il's o"ernment said it would dispel uncertainty in pre"ious forestry law. ow, thouh, e"en o"ernmentaencies say the opposite is happenin 6 at least while >ra?il fiures out how to apply it. Ye're loo+in at four or fi"e years )efore we would see any result,Y =eore;orto Ferreira, who manaes deforestation data for &)ama, >ra?il's federal en"ironmental aency, told 1euters. Bhe first step to enact the new code, triered )y aone6year deadline esta)lished in the law, is ust now startin. &t reLuires each of >ra?il's 4 states to reister e"ery farm and ranch. &n addition to mappin out their precise location and dimensions for the first time, the process will help identify eactly what is cropland and forest on those plots and esta)lish which portions must )ereplanted as woodland. A pro"ision of the new code, an effort to ma+e up for past deforestation, stipulates that a total area rouhly the si?e of &taly must )e reforested.A o"ernment study predicts the pro"ision will not hurt har"ests )ecause most replantin can ta+e place on deraded pastures, not producti"e fields. Still, states areonly now )einnin to fiure out how to reister the farms, an arduous process that is epected to ta+e at least two years. At least two more years will )e needed afterthat for farmers to de"elop their reforestation plans. Farmers then ha"e up to two decades for the plantin itself. *ntil states spell out how to proceed, landowners and producers are oin a)out )usiness as usual. Ye're loo+in forward to the code's implementation so we can +now what chanes, if any, need to )e made,Y said%duardo =odoi, an eecuti"e at Famato, the farmin and ranchin federation of $ato =rosso, >ra?il's )iest soy6producin state. CJB&*%M M%SB1*CB&J

Bhe lim)o ena)les destruction, en"ironmentalists say. After years of declines, preliminary o"ernment data suests thatdeforestation increased )y 3H percent )etween Auust 434 and April 43, compared with the same nine6month

period a year earlier. Bhe o"ernment says a fuller picture will follow the dry season and clarify what damae is man6made

and what is the result of wildfires and other natural deterioration. >ut the data so far supports the theory that high crop andcommodit" prices provo!e destrction, said Ferreira, the federal official. &n $ato =rosso, the state with the most deforestation since Auust, therewas a 34 percent ump in soy plantin. Bhe o"ernment's fiures are modest compared to those compiled )y &ma?on, a pri"ate research institute that also trac+ssatellite imaery. &ts fiures suest deforestation increased )y as much as 99 percent durin the nine6month period. &f )orne out, the trend would underscore fears that1ousseff has deleated too much enforcement to local authorities, who critics say are more li+ely to fa"or de"elopment o"er en"ironmental concerns.

Meforestation is already creepin into areas where she has declassified par+land and chaned policy to allow forhydroelectric dams and other infrastructure proects. ;roducers, meanwhile, are hopin the o"ernment deli"ers on a "aue plede in the newcode for Ypayments for en"ironmental ser"ices.Y Bhat is, >ra?il, in theory, will compensate farmers for +eepin "irin forests on their lands. 1esearchers say as muchas percent of land protected )y the code is pri"ately owned or in "ulnera)le pu)lic areas outside eistin par+s or nature reser"es. %n"ironmental roups and the

o"ernment are considerin "arious methods, such as car)on mar+ets, that could place a "alue on that woodland. o framewor+, howe"er, appearsli+ely anytime soon.

Environmental degradation is inevita+le

7ale 11 (r. >enamin -ale is associate professor in the ;hilosophy Mepartment and the %n"ironmental Studies ;roram at the *ni"ersity ofColorado, >oulder. From 4649 he was Mirector of the Center for Ealues and Social ;olicy, and continues acti"e enaement with the center

)y co6orani?in the annual 1oc+y $ountain %thics (1o$%# Conress with Alastair orcross.-e also wor+s closely with the Center for Scienceand Bechnoloy ;olicy 1esearch, located under C&1%S, the Cooperati"e &nstitute for 1esearch in %n"ironmental Sciences. -e is co6editor (withAndrew 0iht# of the ournal %thics, ;olicy V %n"ironment and Eice ;resident of the &nternational Society for %n"ironmental %thics. -is

primary area of research focus is en"ironmental ethics, thouh he maintains acti"e interests in a wide rane of ethical topics. For a time he was )loin a)out these and other issues reardin ethics, policy, and the en"ironment at http://cruelmistress.wordpress.com thouh he has ta+en a )rief )loin hiatus to focus on other research., J1%%A>0% 1%SJ*1C%S AM B-% &%E&BA>&0&BG JF J*BCJ$%Sk,http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/pu)lication!files/433.49.pdf#

6 arge in this paper that the release of climate6alterin CJ4 into the atmosphere is )est understood as temporallyine"ita)le, at least from the standpoint of moral theory. amely, & reason that, in the a)sence of alternati"e enerytechnoloies and ro)ust lo)al remediation strateies, human acti"ity is headed toward the same end: the complete

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/05/us-brazil-deforestation-idUSBRE9541D920130605

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/05/us-brazil-deforestation-idUSBRE9541D920130605



ehaustion of fossil fuel resources( 6n trn, as these fels are sed, the near certain outcome is that car)on,otherwise deeply seLuestered in roc+ and sediment at the )ottom of the car)on cycle, will enter the atmosphere andthe terrestrial )iosphere ( 'he crrent climate crisis is therefore onl" partiall" characteri;ed +" each of the

a+ove factorsIranging from the consmption of nonrenewa)le resources to the emission and su)seLuentaccumulation of car)on concentrations in the atmosphereI)ut these factors ta+en toether undercut harms6)asedconser"ation aruments aimed at mitiatin climate chane. Bhis, & )elie"e, has implications for the ethical and

political framewor+ appropriate to address the climate challene



Affirmative



Uni9eness Ans#ers



U(S( 6nflence 7igh – 0eneric

U(S( 'ies #ith Latin America are high no# and are expected to rise(

Bim )adgett 9:4 am $on $ay 4, $*15 Bim ;adett is 016$iami -erald ews' Americas correspondent co"erin 0atin America andthe Cari))ean from $iami. -e has co"ered 0atin America for almost 4H years01.com hy China &s >ehind Fresh *.S. $o"es &n 0atinAmerica http://wlrn.or/post/why6china6)ehind6fresh6us6mo"es6latin6america

*.S. Eice ;resident <oe >iden will "isit Colom)ia, >ra?il, Brinidad and Bo)ao net wee+. ;resident J)amaalready swun throuh $eico and Costa 1ica this month and net month J)ama will host the presidents of Chileand ;eru at the hite -ouse.-as the J)ama Administration finally disco"ered 0atin America and the Cari))eanRAfter a first term mar+ed larely )y indifference to the reion, is the *.S. poised for what >iden is callin “the mostacti"e stretch of hih6le"el enaement on 0atin America in a lon, lon time” 66 one that could also )e a )oon to$iami7s economyR &f so, there7s pro)a)ly one word that sums up ashinton7s sudden interest in the world to thesouth, and it7s located in the far east: China. $a+e no mista+e, the *.S. is still 0atin America7s chief tradin partner.&n fact, total commerce )etween the two hit a record trillion dollars last year. Still, after a decade of economic )oomin 0atin America, *.S. influence in the western hemisphere is in serious decline 66 and China, the *.S.'s )iesteconomic ri"al, has )een eaer to fill the "oid.

U(S( 6s increasing its relationship #ith Latin American contries(

Bim )adgett 9:4 am $on $ay 4, $*15 Bim ;adett is 016$iami -erald ews' Americas correspondentco"erin 0atin America and the Cari))ean from $iami. -e has co"ered 0atin America for almost 4Hyears01.com hy China &s >ehind Fresh *.S. $o"es &n 0atin America http://wlrn.or/post/why6china6)ehind6fresh6us6mo"es6latin6america

“ Bhe Administration suddenly reali?es there is now an economic power )ro+er element in 0atin America,” saysChristopher Sa)atini, senior director of policy and the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in ew Gor+.Colom)ia ust finished the first year of a free trade areement with the *.S. ow it hopes >iden will announcedurin his "isit net wee+ that ashinton is set to help the South American nation ta+e part in )ier lo)alinitiati"es li+e the Brans6;acific ;artnership (B;;# and win mem)ership in the eclusi"e, ;aris6)ased Jrani?ationfor %conomic Cooperation and Me"elopment (J%CM#. A trade and in"estment atherin in $iami >each this monthhosted )y the Colom)ian ;roeport Aency drew a larer than usual crowd than+s in no small part to the )u?? a)outrenewed *.S. outreach to 0atin America and the Cari))ean. &f that outreach is really serious 66 and i"en the *.S.Qsdisappointin trac+ record in its own hemisphere, it7s )etter to ta+e a wait6and6see approach 66 it could mean a

)ier role for $iami as the )usiness neus of the Americas. South Florida trade with 0atin America is already atrecord hihs, toppin 2 )illion last year. “$iami is "ery important,” says <uan Carlos =on?ale?, ;roeport7s "ice

president for forein in"estment. “&t is a maor ateway for the *.S. and 0atin America.”

http://wlrn.org/post/why-china-behind-fresh-us-moves-latin-america








China 6nflence Lo# – 0eneric

Chinese soft po#er is lo#

Sham+agh 15

NMa"id Sham)auh, a professor of political science and international affairs at the =eore ashinton *ni"ersityand a nonresident senior fellow at the >roo+ins &nstitution, Fallin Jut of 0o"e ith China, /39/3,http://www.nytimes.com/43//3@/opinion/fallin6out6of6lo"e6with6china.htmlP

J that China is )ecomin a world power, it is )einnin to reconi?e the importance of its lo)al imae and the need to enhance its “soft power.” &t is

trac+in pu)lic opinion polls worldwide and in"estin hue amounts into epandin its lo)al cultural footprint , “eternal propaanda wor+” and pu)lic diplomacy. *nfortunately for China, that’s not enogh . hile poc+ets of positi"e "iews reardin

China can )e found around the world, pu)lic opinion sur"eys from the ;ew 1esearch Center7s =lo)al Attitudes ;roect and the >>C re"eal thatChina’s image ranges +et#een mixed and poor . And the neati"e "iew is epandin : for almost a decade, %uropean pu)licopinion toward China has )een the most neati"e in the world, )ut that is now matched in America and Asia. Bhere are li+ewise increasin sins of strain with 1ussia:on the surface, there is considera)le harmony of world"iews and interests, )ut underneath lie linerin historical suspicions, rowin trade frictions, pro)lemsstemmin from 1ussia7s military sales to China, immiration contro"ersies and nascent strateic competition in Central Asia. China7s reputation has also deterioratedin the $iddle %ast and amon the Ara) 0eaue due to the country7s support for the Syrian and &ranian reimes as well as its persecution of $uslim minorities in far

western China, a policy that has also sullied its imae in Central Asia. %"en in Africa I where relations remain positi"e on the whole I China7s imae hasdeteriorated o"er the past three years as a result of the flood of Chinese entrepreneurs , its rapacious etraction of oiland other raw materials, aid proects that seem to )enefit Chinese construction companies as much as recipient

countries and support for unsa"ory o"ernments. A similar do#ntrn is apparent in Latin America for the samereasons(

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/opinion/falling-out-of-love-with-china.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/opinion/falling-out-of-love-with-china.html



China 6nflence Lo# – U(S( 'rade

Chinese trade is nothing compared to the U(S( and not in the topic contries

.’Neil 1$

NShannon, Senior Fellow for 0atin America Studies, China7s %conomic 1ole in 0atin America,3/4/34,http://)los.cfr.or/oneil/434/3/4/chinas6economic6role6in6latin6america/P

Bhere is much tal+ of China7s escalatin economic influence in 0atin America. >ut it7s worth loo+in at what has (and

hasn’tR actall" happened in the three main ways that China interacts with the reion7s economies: trade, forein direct in"estment (FM&#, and loans

(from state6owned )an+s#. Brade is the most "isi)le and important connection. J"er the last se"eral years, oods flowin )ac+ and forth ha"eincreased some percent per year , )rinin today7s total to rouhly *S24H )illion. Bhis trade leans in China7s fa"or, with a deficit (nearly all

with $eico# of nearly *S23 )illion. hile si?a)le num)ers, this is still &st a 9arter of Latin America’s trade #ith the United

States. And it appears to +e leveling off, sggesting that China #on’t overta!e the United States as the region’s

primar" trading partner an"time soon. Bhis trade is also Luite concentrated. %ports to China come primarily from %ra;il,

Chile, )er, and Argentina, and are mainly raw materials (copper, iron ore, lead, tin, soya, and suar#. Jf the oods China sends east nearly half o to$eicoIa mi of consumer oods and capital oods (eLuipment for production#. Brade with China has epanded dramatically o"er the past decade. >ut it is worthremem)erin that it )oth started from a low )ase and is une"enly distri)utedIaffectin a few countries sinificantly and others "ery little. Chinese forein direct

in"estment has )een the focus of numerous hih6le"el state "isits and has )een much touted in the press. $oney flowin from China to 0atinAmerica has increasedItotalin some 23 )illion in 43. Still, this contines to +e less than the US$ +illion coming from the

United States or the USJ* +illion from Eropean contries, and is rouhly eLual to *S23 )illion headin from 0atin Americancountries into their neih)ors. Bhe "ast maority of Chinese funds head to the Cayman &slands and the >ritish Eirin &slandsI

suestin tax considerations instead of prodctive investments. Bhe money that is in"ested remains hea"ilyconcentrated on raw materials and eneryImostly in %ra;il, and some in )er . Bhouh promises continue, so far Chinese FM& has "et to ma!e a serios regional mar!. Finally loans are a means of enain 0atin American nations. Bhese ha"e increased to countries such as Eene?uela,>ra?il, and %cuador, nearly all in echane for oil. Bhese tens of )illions of dollars comprise a decent portion of China7s de"elopment loans a)road, and outpace 0atin

American resources from the orld >an+, &nter6American Me"elopment >an+, and the *nited States %port6&mport >an+. Still, since most countries ha"eeasy access to world financial mar+ets, most financin comes throuh non6o"ernmental sources. J"erall economic ties are

indeed increasin. >ut these trade, FM&, and loan num)ers suest the rise is slo#er than either the cheerleaders or

na"sa"ers might sggest. Bhe net Luestion is whether these lin+s are ood or )ad for the reion.





China 6nflence Lo# – L(A( Distancing

Latin America is distancing from China

Herchen 1$

N$att, China >rief, China60atin American 1elations: Bhe %nd of the -oneymoonR, 3/3/34,http://carneieendowment.or/434/3/3/china6latin6american6relations/@4HnP

>ut at the same time, anieties a)out epandin economic ties with China are risin in some countries and economic sectors in 0atin

America. Even in contries that have +enefited the most from epandin commodity ties to China, throuh a com)ination of eports to China

and an inflow of Chinese in"estment, there are worries. Such anieties are often )ased on historical patterns of eport dependency andthe trauma of commodity )oom6and6)ust cycles that ha"e afflicted the reion for well o"er a century. Countries li+e >ra?il that ha"e fouht tomo"e away from commodity6)ased eport rowth worry a)out “de6industriali?ation” and o"er6reliance on demand from a sinle mar+et li+e China. $oreo"er,

risin Chinese forein in"estment in the reion7s mineral and aricultural resources ha"e raised concerns a)out “Mutch disease” andits neati"e impact on 0atin American manufacturin eports. (Mutch disease refers to the tendency for a commodity )oom to result in

currency inflation, which su)seLuently ma+es non6commodity eports less competiti"e#. Bhe sure in in"estment from China has also )rouht tothe fore local sensiti"ities a)out forein ownership of aricultural land. After a nearly decade6lon period of increasinly close economic ties

)etween China and 0atin America, the relationship now stands at a turnin point. Bhe honeymoon period )ased on the initial 0atin American euphoria o"er

epanded trade and in"estment with China is i"in way to anieties. %"en the relati"ely small num)er of South American countries that ha"e )enefited the

most from commodities ties with China ha"e lon epressed a desire to mo"e )eyond a narrow Chinese focus on natural resource trade and in"estment. &nitial

hopes for a )roadenin of the relationship, includin increased eports of 0atin American manufactured oods to the hue Chinese mar+et, ha"elarely )een disappointed.

http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/01/16/china-latin-american-relations/925n

http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/01/16/china-latin-american-relations/925n



Lin! Ans#ers



No Lin! – Competition

China’s competing #ith Latin America no#

ontfar-7el 1$

NAlfredo $ontufar6-elu is a uest )loer to AD Jnline. -is epertise is in the analysis of lo)al affairs includin political ris+, emerin mar+ets, international security, enery security, and 0atin American eopolitics as well as$eico and China., $eico: 0atin America7s risin star M%C%$>%1 33, 434, http://www.americasLuarterly.or/content/meico6latin6america[%4[9[@@s6risin6star P

'he hone"moon +et#een China and Latin America seems to have ended( Bhouh China7s money is still temptin, especially

when facin low =M; rowth, 0atin American o"ernments ha"e (or need to# come to the reali?ation that there is no sch thing

as an 3East-Soth fraternit".” Bhe Chinese o"ernment has its own particular interests and its actions are eared to fulfill them. As

Carneie %ndowment7s ei -onia eplained in a recent panel, China7s aenda with 0atin America, more than anythin, responds to its

domestic d"namics. Bhis is precisely why $eico is in a comparati"ely )etter position than >ra?il, and why it has the potential to

)ecome 0atin America7s larest economy. For one, $eico was pro)a)ly the one 0atin American country for whom the epansion ofChina7s presence in the hemisphere was not a honeymoon, )ut a nightmare mar!ed +" +itter competition . Afterainin admittance to the BJ in 43, China Luic+ly o"ertoo+ $eico as the *.S.7s second6larest tradin partner. Accordin to a >arclays report, $eicanmanufacturers “eperienced their larest contraction of the pre60ehman crisis period.” Bo et a )etter sense of these num)ers, consider that from <anuary to Jcto)er434, a)out 9 percent of $eico7s total non6oil eports were sent to the *nited States. &n 45, it amounted to 9@ percent of such eports. ow, =allaher and;or?ecans+i find that, from 4 to 4, o"er 9 percent of $eican non6oil eports to the *.S. faced a direct or partial threat from Chinese competition. $eico lost

mar+et share in 33 of its top64 eports to the *.S. and only ained in two products. $eanwhile, China ained mar+et share in 39 of the 4 sectors most important for$eico7s eport industry. $eico also started eperiencin a drop in its oil production in 4H, which, fortunately, was offset )y an increase in international oil

prices. >ut it was still clear that somethin needed to )e done. Bhe only way to compete with China was to )ecome more producti"eand inno"ati"e. As the *.S. and $eican economies ha"e started reco"erin, it has )ecome clear that $eican manufacturers ha"estarted reainin their position within the American mar+et. %ports ha"e )een oin up, contri)utin to a .9

percent =M; rowth, hiher than other de"elopin countries and the *nited States. Accordin to the >arclay7s report, $eico7s

producti"ity rew 34.9 percent from 4@ to 434, due in part to hiher capital per wor+er. &n other words, $eican manufacturers ha"e )ecomemore competiti"e. $eanwhile, the orld %conomic Forum (%F# raised $eico 3 positions in its competiti"eness ran+ins from 43 to 434.

http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/mexico-latin-america%E2%80%99s-rising-star

http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/mexico-latin-america%E2%80%99s-rising-star



No Lin! – 'hmper 0eneric

U(S( shifting emphasis to economics no# – triggers the lin!

Shear and Archi+old 15

N$ichael and 1andal, ew Gor+ Bimes, &n 0atin America, *.S. Focus Shifts From Mru ar to %conomy, H/5/3,http://www.nytimes.com/43/H/H/world/americas/in6latin6america6us6shifts6focus6from6dru6war6to6economy.htmlRpaewanted\allV!r\P

0ast wee+, $r. J)ama returned to capitals in 0atin America with a "astly different messae. 1elationships with countries rac+ed )y dru

"iolence and orani?ed crime should focus more on economic development and less on the endless )attles aainst dru traffic+ers and orani?ed

crime capos that ha"e left few clear "ictors. Bhe countries, $eico in particular, need to set their own course on security, with the *nited States playin more of a )ac+in role. Bhat approach runs the ris+ of )ein seen as +owtowin to o"ernments more concerned a)out their pu)lic imae than the underlyin

pro)lems tarnishin it. $eico, which is eaer to play up its economic rowth, has mounted an aressi"e effort to playdown its crime pro)lems, oin as far as to encourae the news media to a"oid certain slan words in reports. “Bhe pro)lem will not ust o away,” said$ichael Shifter, president of the &nter6American Mialoue. “&t needs to )e tac+led head6on, with a comprehensi"e stratey that includes )ut oes )eyond stimulatineconomic rowth and alle"iatin po"erty. “J)ama )ecomes "ulnera)le to the chare of downplayin the reion7s o"erridin issue, and the chief o)stacle to economic

proress,” he added. “&t is fine to chane the narrati"e from security to economics as lon as the reality on the round reflects and fitswith the new story line.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/world/americas/in-latin-america-us-shifts-focus-from-drug-war-to-economy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0






o 0in+ O Bhumper Eene?uela

U(S( 6s crrentl" trading #ith Fene;ela%rea of >estern 7emisphere Affairs <anuary 3, $*15 Fact Sheet *.S. Mepartment ofState.com Miplomacy in Action *.S. 1elations ith Eene?uela >ilateral %conomic 1elations

http==###(state(gov=r=pa=ei=+gn=52JJ(htm

'he United States is Fene;ela?s most important trading partner( U(S( exports to

Fene;ela inclde machiner", organic chemicals, agricltral prodcts, optical and

medical instrments, atos and ato parts( .il dominates U(S( imports from Fene;ela,

#hich is one of the top for sppliers of foreign oil to the United States( A+ot ** U(S(

companies are represented in Fene;ela( U(S( foreign direct investment in Fene;ela is

concentrated largel" in the petrolem, manfactring, and finance sectors(

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35766.htm

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35766.htm



No Lin! – 'hmper exico

U(S( 6s crrentl" trading #ith exicoMiana Eilliers Negroponte $ay 4, $*15 @:am Formerly a trade lawyer and professor ofhistory, nonresident senior fellow with the 0atin America &nitiati"e under Forein ;olicy at>roo+ins focuses on 0atin America and researches and writes a)out the ew 0eft, populismand the relationship )etween criminal ans and state institutions. >roo+ins.com *p FrontJ)ama7s $eico Brip: ;uttin Brade and &n"estment at the Bop of the Aendahttp://www.)roo+ins.edu/)los/up6front/posts/43/H/46o)ama6meico6trip6trade6in"estment6neroponte

>e agree that exports to exico +oth maintain and create &o+s in the United States( Bhe*.S. o"ernment estimates that each additional )illion dollars in new eports supports more than, new o)s. According to the U(S( Cham+er of Commerce, almost J million U(S( &o+s

rel" on trade #ith exico, the conse9ence of #hich is the potential creation of 1*2,***

ne# U(S( Go+s. Hrthermore, individal states +enefit from exports to exico sch as

Ari;ona, California and 'exas #hich hold exico as their main export destination( exicois also the second destination for exports from $* other states and is ran!ed among the top

five export destinations for 5< states( 6nvestment flo#s are also mtall" +eneficial(

According to the U(S( 'rade epresentative’s office, sales of services in exico +" ma&orit"

U(S( o#ned affiliates #ere 5<(< +illion in $*1*( Sales of services in the United States +"

ma&orit" exico-o#ned firms #ere <( +illion( According to the U(S( Em+ass" in exico,

the United States crrentl" provides <1 percent of all foreign direct investment in exico,

+enefiting more than $1,158 companies. %e"ond the nm+ers, the realit" of trade and

investment is that the United States and exico compete together in the glo+al econom"(

)rodction and sppl" chains in North America are deepl" integrated #ith the U(S( content

of exico exports to the United States estimated at <* cents on the dollar( Bhis compares to4H cents for Canadian eports to the *nited States and 5 cents for China and 4 cents for the%uropean *nion, accordin to a ilson Center report. &n short, there eists a rowin interatedmanufacturin platform that ta+es ad"antae of eoraphy, time ?ones and cultural affinity.

http://about/projects/latin-america

http://about/programs/foreign-policy

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/05/02-obama-mexico-trip-trade-investment-negroponte


http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Working%20Together%20Full%20Document.pdf

http://about/projects/latin-america

http://about/programs/foreign-policy



http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Working%20Together%20Full%20Document.pdf



No Lin! – Not Bero Sm

Not Bero-Sm – mtal +enefits

:iaoxia 15

Nan, %conomic J)ser"er/orldcrunch, H//3, & A$%1&CA'S >ACGA1M: C-&A'S 1&S&= &F0*%C%& 0AB& A$%1&CA, http://www.worldcrunch.com/china64./in6america6@6s6)ac+yard6china6@6s6risin6influence6in6latin6america/forein6policy6trade6economy6in"estments6enery/c@s335/P

China's in"ol"ement in the 0atin American continent doesn’t constitte a threat to the United States, )ut )rins )enefits. &t is precisely )ecause China has reached Yloans6for6oilY swap areements with Eene?uela, >ra?il, %cuadorand other countries that it )rins much6needed funds to these oil6producin countries in South America. ot onlyha"e these funds )een used in the field of oil production, )ut they ha"e also safeuarded the enery supply of the*nited States, as well as sta)ili?ed these countries' li"elihood 66 and to a certain etent reduced the impact of illealimmiration and the dru trade on the *.S. For South America, China and the *nited States, this is not a ;ero-sm

game, )ut a mltiple choice of mutual )enefits and syneries . %"en if China has )ecome the 0atin Americaneconomy7s new upstart, it is still not in a position to challenge the strong and diverse inflence that the *nitedStates has accumulated o"er two centuries in the reion.

6nflence is not a ;ero sm game0lo+al 'imes 15 (an %nlish6lanuae Chinese newspaper under the ;eople's Maily., China, *S not competin o"er 0atinAmerica: epert, http://www.lo)altimes.cn/content/9H43.shtml.*eEeo&3JSFs#Chinese ;resident Wi <inpin heads to 0atin America and the Cari))ean on Friday, in a state "isit aimin at

promotin China's cooperation with the reion. Wi's "isit to Brinidad and Bo)ao, Costa 1ica and $eico followshis first forein trip to 1ussia and three countries in Africa, Ban?ania, South Africa and 1epu)lic of Cono, shortlyafter ta+in office in $arch. hile Wi +ic+s off his "isit, *S Eice ;resident <oe >iden is concludin his 0atinAmerica "isit on the same day, as he lea"es >ra?il Friday. Some media reports descri)ed Yduelin "isitsY )y Chineseand *S leaders, and said that the Ycompetition )etween the world's two )iest economies for influence in 0atinAmerica is on display.Y >oth the *S and China deny they are competin with each other. Chinese forein ministryspo+esperson -on 0ei said last wee+ that the two countries can Ycarry out cooperation in 0atin America )y i"in

play to their respecti"e ad"antaes.Y Bao en?hao, a fellow of the &nstitute of American Studies at the ChineseAcademy of Social Sciences, told the =lo)al Bimes that it is a coincidence that the two leaders chose to "isit 0atin

America at a similar time, and that China has no intention to challene *S influence in the area. Y&t's not li+e in the3@th century when countries di"ided their sphere of influence in a certain area. China and the *S' in"ol"ement in0atin America is not a ?ero6sum ame,Y Bao said, eplainin that it is a ood thin for 0atin America. Chinese and*S leaders "isit 0atin America out of their respecti"e strateic needs, Bao said. All countries need to interact andcooperate with other countries, and "isits of such hih6le"el are usually arraned lon time )efore they starts, Baosaid. China has em)ar+ed on a diplomatic dri"e since completin its once6in6a6decade leadership transition withChinese ;remier 0i eLian also "isitin &ndia, ;a+istan, Swit?erland and =ermany, and se"eral hih6le"el "isitorsto >eiin. After "isitin $eico, Wi tra"els to the *S for his first summit with ;resident >arac+ J)ama on <une to 9 in California.



o 0in+ O China &nfluence Fails

Chinese investment in Latin America #ill not +e sccessfl

CS *



7A0EL, Ne+ras!a USSELL D( HE6N0.LD, >isconsin N. C.LEAN, innesota %A%AA %.:E, California %.%C.E, 'ennessee %6LL NELS.N, Hlorida 0E.0E F( F.6N.F6C7, .hio %AAC .%AA, 6llinois L6SA U.>S6,Alas!a .%E' ENENDEB, Ne# Gerse" G6 De6N', Soth Carolina %ENGA6N L( CAD6N, ar"land G.7NN/ 6SAS.N,


).>E?? 6N S.U'7 AE6CA, AS6A, AND AH6CA, 0overnment )rinting .ffice, April $**, http://www.po.o"/fdsys/p+/C;1B633S;1B53@4/html/C;1B633S;[email protected]#Bhe "isit of Chinese ;resident -u <intao to se"eral 0atin American countries in o"em)er 45 raisedepectations of a su)stantial increase in Chinese in"estment in the reion in comin years. Murin a speech tothe >ra?ilian Conress, -u stated that China would in"est 23 )illion in 0atin America o"er the net 3 years.&n Arentina alone, he said China would in"est 24 )illion in the net decade. 0atin American nations welcomedthe increase in forein capital that the Chinese were promisin, especially since the reion was eperiencin aslump in attractin FM&. Amon the in"estment pledes hihlihted in the press durin ;resident -u's trip to0atin America were: railway, oil eploration, and construction proects in Arentina8 a nic+el plant and oil and as

eploration in Cu)a8 copper minin proects in Chile8 a steel mill, railway, and oil eploration proects in >ra?il8and oil and as eploration proects in %cuador, >oli"ia, and Colom)ia. Chinese promises of such hih le"els ofin"estment in the reion ha"e not yet materiali?ed, and li+ely will total far less than the promised 23 )illion )y435. $any of the planned proects ha"e not one forward. At least one Chinese official speciali?in in 0atinAmerica maintains that the 23 )illion referred to )ilateral trade, not in"estment.5 Accordin to someo)ser"ers, China's ineperience in in"estment a)road, its lac+ of information a)out )usiness in 0atin America,and concerns a)out the ris+s of in"estin in the reion all com)ined ha"e limited China's in"estment in the reion.53









6mpact Ans#ers



China 6nflence %ad – 7eg

Chinese inflence in Latin America is a litms test for po#er glo+all" – ndermines 7egemon"

Cerna 11

N$ichael, China 1esearch Center, China's =rowin ;resence in 0atin America: &mplications for *.S. and Chinese;resence in the 1eion, 5/3H/33, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas6rowin6presence6in6latin6america6implications6for6u6s6and6chinese6presence6in6the6reion/P

ith )oth the *.S. and China ma+in ains in the reion in different sectors, there is seeminly room for each side to row8 which implies that, in fact, trade with

0atin America is not a ?ero6sum ame. China presents an alternative to the United States, )ut that is not necessarily a )ad thin. Bhe *.S. ismuch more di"ersified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition. -owe"er, as China responds to calls from >ra?il and

di"ersifies its in"estments, there is increasin worry that China is oin to outmatch *.S. trade in the reion. Bhese fears may )eeconomically )ased, )ut there are potentially harmful political conseLuences O primarily, pro"idin 0atin America with a9asi-#orld po#er as an alternative to the U(S( Since the $onroe Moctrine, 0atin America has )een considered a secure sphere of influence

for the *.S. 'he fact that China presents a less democratic alternative to U(S( inflence presents a ma&or pro+lem .Bhe third >1&CS summit in April pro"ided more insiht into the potential conseLuences of China7s rowin place in 0atin America "ia its relations with >ra?il. Jne proposal to emere from the summit of the fi"e nations (>ra?il, &ndia, China, 1ussia and South Africa# was a )road6)ased international reser"e currency system pro"idin sta)ility and certainty. Bhe idea was to set up a new echane rate mechanism that would )ypass the *.S. dollar as the reser"e currency of the world. &naddition, )an+s of the fi"e >1&CS nations areed to esta)lish mutual credit lines in their local currencies, not in *.S. currency. hile the chances of such a proposal

ainin support are de)ata)le, it sets a clear eample of a possi)le shift in po#er a#a" from the U(S . and toward a morelo)al orani?ation, one that is arua)ly anchored +" China( &f China )ecomes a preferred partner in 0atin America, it

#ill sho# that U(S( dominance arond the glo+e also is at ris!. So what does China7s rowin place in the reion mean for the futureR

Mependin on whom this Luestion is posed to, there are two pro)a)le answers. Bhe first is that China7s intensifyin relations with 0atin Americaoffer a clear sin of the end of *.S. dominance in the reion, and in a reater sense, the entire #orld . Bhere isenogh evidence to sho# that the tides have changed in favor of China( Bhe other answer is that it means nothin. Bhe *.S. iso)"iously still the more dominant power in the reion, and Chinese presence will e"entually su)side, aain lea"in the *nited States as the reion7s premier partner.

Bhe real answer pro)a)ly falls somewhere in the middle. &s China the preferred partner for 0atin AmericaR At this point, the definiti"e answer is no. -owe"er, the*nited States shold not ta!e its place in the region for granted. Bhere is clear e"idence of an increasingl"

s"m+iotic relationship #ith China throghot Latin America( hile the *.S. is the most dominant trade partner to the reion as a

whole, it is losin round in +ey countries, namely >ra?il, which is )lossomin on the world stae and is emerin as the clear leader in the reion.

&ncreasin trade and in"estment can )e )eneficial for all, )ut the po#er that China can derive from its gro#ing economic inflence

cold +ring increased political and ideological inflence that the U(S( might find nnerving. China already has replaced

the *.S. as the larest tradin partner for >ra?il and Chile, and is on pace to do the same in ;eru and Eene?uela. At the "ery least, this should cause the*.S. to pay more attention to its sothern neigh+ors and ta+e steps to ma+e sure that China only )enefits

economically and not politically at the epense of the *.S. 'he #orld #ill +e #atching . As it stands, the Chinese are not )roadenin their relations with the reion in a way that directly competes with the *nited States. China is strictly concerned with commodities, includin oil. *.S.

;resident >arac+ J)ama recently sined an areement with >ra?il7s ;etro)ras that will allow the oil company to drill in the =ulf of $eico. Bhis sym)olicmo"e could cause tensions to increase as the world7s two larest oil consumers )attle o"er rihts to >ra?ilian oil. &n that reard,

the competition may go +e"ond a race to Latin commodities and mo"e into the realm of fighting for political

inflence. &t is odd to thin+ that the *nited States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country on the other side of the lo)e, )ut China7sactions and increasin interation into the reion tell us that such a scenario may one day arise. =i"en the proimityand importance of 0atin America to the *nited States, this reion could )e the s"m+olic +attle that )est measuresthe contined hegemon" of the U(S( verss China(

US primac" prevents glo+al conflict – #ithdra#l cases a po#er vaccm that cases transition #ars in

mltiple places

%roo!s et al 15 NStephen =. >roo+s is Associate ;rofessor of =o"ernment at Martmouth Collee.=.

<ohn &+en)erry is the Al)ert =. $il)an+ ;rofessor of ;olitics and &nternational Affairs at ;rinceton *ni"ersity in theMepartment of ;olitics and the oodrow ilson School of ;u)lic and &nternational Affairs. -e is also a =lo)al%minence Scholar at yun -ee *ni"ersity.illiam C. ohlforth is the Maniel e)ster ;rofessor in theMepartment of =o"ernment at Martmouth Collee. “Mon't Come -ome, America: Bhe Case aainst 1etrenchment”,inter 43, Eol. , o. , ;aes 6H3,http://www.mitpressournals.or/doi/a)s/3.334/&S%C!a!3P A core premise of deep enaement is that it pre"ents the emerence of a far more danerous lo)al security en"ironment. For one thin, as noted

a)o"e, the *nited States7 o"erseas presence i"es it the le"erae to restrain partners from ta+in pro"ocati"e action.;erhaps more important, its core alliance commitments also deter states with aspirations to reional heemony from contemplatin epansion and ma+e its p artners more secure, reducin theirincenti"e to adopt solutions to their security pro)lems that threaten others and thus sto+e security dilemmas. Bhe contention that enaed *.S. power dampens the )aleful effects ofanarchy is consistent with influenti al "ariants of realist theory. &ndeed, arua)ly the scariest portrayal of the war6prone world that would emere a)sent the “American ;acifier” is pro"ided in the



http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107



http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107



wor+s of <ohn $earsheimer, who forecasts danerous multipolar reio ns replete with security competition, arms races, nuclear proliferation and associated pre"enti"e wartemptations, reionalri"alries, and e"en runs at reional heemony and full6scale reat power war. 4 -ow do retrenchment ad"ocates, the )ul+ of whom are realists, discount this )enefitR Bheir aruments arecomplicated, )ut two capture most of the "ariation: (3# *.S. security uarantees are not necessary to pre"ent danerous ri"alries and conflict in %urasia8 or (4# pre"ention of ri"alry and conflict in%urasia is not a *.S. interest. %ach response is connected to a different theory or set of theories, which ma+es sense i"en that the whole de)ate hines on a comple future counterfactual (whatwould happen to %urasia7s security setti n if the *nited States truly disenaedR#. Althouh a certain answer is impossi)le, each of these responses is nonetheless a wea+er arument forretrenchment than ad"ocates ac+nowlede. Bhe first response flows from defensi"e realism as well as other international relations theories that discount the conflict6eneratin potential ofanarchy under contemporary conditions. Mefensi"e realists maintain that the hih epected costs of territorial conLuest, defense dominance, and an array of policies and practices that can )eused credi)ly to sinal )enin intent, mean that %urasia7s maor states could manae reional multipolarity peacefully without theAmerican pacifier. 1etrenchment would )e a )et on thisscholarship, particularly in reions where the +inds of sta)ili?ers that nonrealist theories point toIsuch as democratic o"ernance or dense institutional lin+aesIare either a)sent or wea+ly present. Bhere are three other maor )odies of scholarship, howe"er, that miht i"e decisionma+ers pause )efore ma+in this )et. First is reional epertise. eedless to say, there is noconsensus on the net security effects of *.S. withdrawal. 1eardin each reion, there are optimists and pessimists. Few eperts epect a return of intense reat power competition in a post6

American %urope, )ut many dou)t %uropean o"ernments will pay the political costs of increased %* defense cooperation and the )udetary costs of increasin military outlays. 5 Bhe resultmiht )e a %urope that is incapa)le of securin itself from "arious threats that could )e desta)ili?in within the reionand )eyond (e.., a reional conflict a+in t o the 3@@s >al+an wars#, lac+s capacity for lo)al security missions in which *.S. leaders miht want %uropean participation, and is

"ulnera)le to the influence of outside risin powers. hat a)out the other parts of %urasia where the * nited S tates ha s a su)stantialmilitary presenceR 1eardin the $iddle %ast, the )alance )eins to swin toward pessimists concerned that statescurrently )ac+ed )y ashinton I nota)ly &srael, %ypt, and Saudi Ara)ia I miht ta+e actions upon *.S. retrenchmentthat would intensify security dilemmas . And concernin %ast Asia, pessimismreardin the reion7s prospects without theAmerican pacifier is pronounced . Arua)ly the principal concern epressed )y area eperts i s that <apan and South orea are li+ely to o+tain

a nclear capacit" and increase their military commitments, which could sto+e a desta+ili;ing reaction from China. &t is nota)le that durin theCold ar, )oth South orea and Baiwan mo"ed to o)tain a nuclear weapons capacity and were only constrained from doin so )y astill6enaed *nited States. H B he second )ody ofscholarship castin dou)t on t he )et on defensi"e realism7s sanuine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences. Mefensi"e realism7s optimism a)o ut whatwould happen if the *nited States retrenched is "ery much dependent on itsparticularIand hihly restricti"eIassumption a)out state preferences8 once we rela this assumption, then much ofits )asis for optimism "anishes. Specifically, the prediction of post6American tranLuility throuhout %urasia rests on the assumption that security is the only rele"ant state preference, withsecurity defined narrowly in terms of protection from "iolent eternal attac+s on the homeland. *nder that assumption, the security pro)lem is larely sol"ed as soon as offense and defense are

clearly distinuisha)le, and offense is etremely epensi"e relati"e to defense. >ureonin research across the social and other sciences ,

howe"er,undermines that core assumption: states ha"e preferences not only for security )ut also for prestie, status , and other aims, and

theyenae in trade6offs amon the "arious o)ecti"es. &n addition, they define security not ust in terms of territorial protection )ut in "iew of manyand "aried milieu oals. &t follows that e"en states that are relati"ely secure may ne"ertheless enae in hihly competiti"e

)eha"ior . %mpirical studies show that this is indeed sometimes the case. &n sum, a )et on a )enin postretrenchment %urasia is a )et that leaders of maorcountries will ne"er allow these nonsecurity preferences to influence their strateic choices. Bo the deree that these )odies of scholarly +nowlede ha"e predicti "e

le"erae, *.S. retrenchment would result in a sinificant deterioration in the security en"ironment in at least some of theworld7s +ey reions . e ha"e already mentioned the third, e"en more alarmin )ody of scholarship. Jffensi"e realism predicts thatthe withdrawal of theAmerican pacifier will yield either a competiti"e reional multipolarity complete with associated insecurity , armsracin, crisis insta)ility, nuclear proliferation, and the li+e , or )ids for reional heemony, which may )e )eyond the capacity oflocal reat powers to contain (and which in any case would enerate intensely competiti"e )eha"ior, possi)ly includin reional reat power war #.



Ext – China 6nflence ills 7eg

Latin America is critical for U(S( dominance glo+all"

Sa+atini and %erger 1$

NChristopher Sa)atini is the editor6in6chief of Americas Duarterly and senior director of policy at AmericasSociety/Council of the Americas. 1yan >erer is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of theAmericas. Bhe "iews in this article are solely those of Christopher Sa)atini and 1yan >erer, hy the *.S. can'tafford to inore 0atin America, <une 434, http://lo)alpu)licsLuare.)los.cnn.com/434//3/why6the6u6s6cant6afford6to6inore6latin6america/P

Spea+in in Santiao, Chile, in $arch of last year, ;resident J)ama called 0atin America “a reion on the mo"e,” one that is “ more

important to the prosperit" and secrit" of the United States than ever +efore.” Some)ody forot to tell the ashinton )rain trust. Bhe Center for a ew American Security, a respected national security thin+ tan+ a half6mile from the hite -ouse, recently released a new series of policy recommendations for the net presidential administration. Bhe 6pae “rand stratey” report only contained a short pararaph on >ra?il and made only one passin reference to 0atin America. Ges, we et it. Bhe relati"e calm south of the *nited States seems to pale in comparison to other de"elopments in the world: Chinaon a seeminly ine"ita)le path to )ecomin a lo)al economic powerhouse, the potential of political chane in the $iddle %ast, the feared dismem)erment of the

euro?one, and roue states li+e &ran and orth orea flauntin international norms and reional sta)ility. >ut the need to shore up our allies andreconi?e leitimate threats south of the 1io =rande oes to the heart of the U(S(’ changing role in the #orld andits strateic interests within it. -ere are three reasons why the U(S( mst inclde Latin America in its strategic

calclations: 3. Boday, pursuin a glo+al foreign polic" re9ires regional allies( 1ecently, countries with emerin

economies ha"e appeared to )e ta+in positions diametricall" opposed to the U(S( when it comes to matters oflo)al o"ernance and human rihts. Ba+e, for eample, 1ussia and China7s stance on Syria, reectin calls for inter"ention. Another one of the>1&CS, >ra?il, tried to sta"e off the tihtenin of *.. sanctions on &ran two years ao. And last year, >ra?il also "oiced its official opposition to inter"ention in

0i)ya, leadin political scientist 1andall Schweller to refer to >ra?il as “a risin spoiler.” At a time of ( perceivedR declining U(S( inflence,it7s important that America deepens its ties #ith regional allies that miht ha"e )een once ta+en for ranted. Asemerin nations such as >ra?il clamor for permanent seats on the *.. Security Council and more representati"es in the hiher reaches of the orld >an+ and the

&nternational $onetary Fund, the *.S. will need to integrate them into glo+al decision-ma!ing rather than isolate them . &f

not, they could )e a thorn in the side of the U(S . as it tries to implement its forein policy aenda. orse, they couldthreaten to ndermine efforts to defend international norms and human rihts. 4. 0atin America is )ecomin more international. &t7s

time to understand that the *.S. isn7t the only country that has clout in 0atin America. For far too lon, *.S. officials and 0atin Americaeperts ha"e tended to treat the reion as separate, politically and strateically, from the rest of the world. >ut as they7"e fouht )attles o"er small countries such as

Cu)a and -onduras and narrow )ore issues such as the *.S.6Colom)ia free6trade areement, other contries li!e China and 6ndia have

increased their economic presence and political inflence in the region . &t7s also clear that countries such as >ra?il and Eene?uela

present their own challenes to *.S. influence in the reion and e"en on the world forum. Bhe *.S. must em+ed its Latin America relations

in the conceptual framewor+ and stratey that it has for the rest of the world, rather than ust focus on human rihts and de"elopmentas it often does toward southern neih)ors such as Cu)a. . Bhere are security and strateic ris+s in the reion. -uo Cha"e?7s systematicdeconstruction of the Eene?uelan state and alleed ties )etween FA1C re)els and some of Cha"e?7s senior officials ha"e created a "olatile coc+tail that could eplode

south of the *.S. )order. FA1C, a left6win uerrilla roup )ased in Colom)ia, has )een desinated as a “sinificant forein narcoticstraffic+er ” )y the *.S. o"ernment. At the same time, ans, narcotics traffic+ers and transnational criminal syndicates are o"errunnin Central America. &n 4,$eican ;resident Felipe Caldern launched a contro"ersial “war on drus” that has since resulted in the loss of o"er H, li"es and increased the le"els of "iolence

and corruption south of the $eican )order in =uatemala, %l Sal"ador, -onduras and e"en once6peaceful Costa 1ica. &ncreasinly, these already6wea+ states arefindin themsel"es o"erwhelmed )y the corruption and "iolence that has come with the use of their territory as atransit point for drus headin north. =i"en their proimity and close historical and political connections withashinton, the U(S( #ill find it increasingl" difficlt not to +e dra#n in. Jnly this case, it won7t )e with or aainst o"ernments

I as it was in the 3@9s I )ut in the far more comple, stic+y situation of failed states. Bhere are many other reasons why 0atin America isimportant to *.S. interests. 6t is a mar!et for more than $*T of U(S( exports( ith the nota)le eception of Cu)a, it is nearly

entirely o"erned )y democratically elected o"ernments I a point that ets repeated ad nauseum at e"ery possi)le reional meetin. Bhe estern-emisphere is a maor source of enery that has the hihest potential to seriosl" redce dependence on iddle

East sppl". And throuh immiration, 0atin America has close personal and cultural ties to the *nited States. Bhese ha"e )een )oilerplate tal+in points since

the early 3@@s. >ut the demands of the lo)e today are different, and they warrant a renewed enaement with 0atin America I astrategic pivot point for initiati"es the U(S( #ants to accomplish else#here. e need to stop thin+in of 0atin America as the *.S.“)ac+yard” that is outside )roader, lo)al strateic concerns.

)o#er is ;ero- sm – Chinese inflence destro"s American po#er

Latif $**2 (Asad, writer for Bhe Straits Bimes, “A hard loo+ at China's soft power,” Auust 33.#Bhe way >eiin would mount the challene is not )y employin its military miht aainst ashinton, )ut )y usin its economicstrenths to spread across the world its soft power : the a)ility to mould the preferences of other countries without the threat or use of force.

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/






-ar"ard academic <oseph ye coined the term 'soft power' more than a decade ao to denote a country's 'a)ility to shape the preferences of others', lead )y eampleand attract other countries to do what it wants. &n optin for the eercise of soft power, China is doin no more than what the *S itself has done since the end of

orld ar &&: use its soft power to try to create a world to its li+in. Bhat world "anished when the Cold ar ended in the 3@@s. ow, the Chinese ha"efound an openin in a world where American soft power is wanin in the aftermath of the in"asion and occupation of &raL,amon other factors, says $r urlant?ic+, a "isitin scholar at the Carneie %ndowment for &nternational ;eace in ashinton. Bhis )oo+ pro"ides a "alua)le

account of how China is creatin )indin relationships with countries in reions as di"erse as South6east Asia, 0atinAmerica and Africa. &t a"ers that China 'has )eun creatin an alternati"e pole to estern democracies in international

oranisations and lo)al diplomacy'. Bhe direction of China's diplomatic dri"e is "isi)le o"er issues such as &ran and orthorea, where it is assem)lin a )loc that refuses to o alon with the estern approach to nuclear proliferation. &ndeed,

i"en China's soft power, some Asian, 0atin American and African nations are 'usin >eiin as a hede aainst American power'.&f this trend continues, China could 'prod' countries such as the ;hilippines or Bhailand, which are already employin it as a hede, todownrade their close ties with the *S . >eiin could also pressure Asian capitals not to inter"ene if the *S and China went to war o"er Baiwan.

Are such scenarios eaeratedR $r urlant?ic+'s analysis suests not, i"en the solid )ases of China's unfoldin soft power. For eample, unli+e the *S,China's lanuae of non6inter"ention in the affairs of other countries is 'soothin' to international ears. &ndeed, in thefree6trade areements that it is pursuin with countries from Chile to ew Tealand, >eiin is careful not to ma+e itstrade conditional on how well its partners li"e up to political, en"ironmental or la)our standards. $ost countries welcome the non6conditional nature of their

relationship with the world's foremost risin power. >eiin is also ta+in a +een interest in multilateral oranisations, and is portrayin itself as aleader of the Bhird orld. &t is usin its economic clout not so much to ma+e money from its partners, )ut to i"e its neih)ours 6 from $onolia to

Eietnam 6 a sta+e in its rise. Bhen, the Chinese diaspora, many of whose mem)ers ha"e )enefited tremendously from China's de"elopment, is repayin itsdues )y helpin it to )oost its relations with countries where the Chinese are settled. Slowly )ut surely, >eiin islayin the rounds on which to supplant American power e"entually

Chinese encroachment harms U(S( interests

-e Li is ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee in orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. 0i has pu)lisheddo?ens of articles in ournals such as <ournal of Strateic Studies, ;ro)lems of ;ost6Communism, Bhe -istorian,;olicy Studies <ournal, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science, Asian ;erspecti"e, American <ournal of ChineseStudies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo+s. Bhis study is supported )y a Ful)riht scholarship and afaculty de"elopment rant from $errimac+ Collee, 3636$** N“1i"alry )etween Baiwan and the ;1C in 0atinAmerica”, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science8 Sep4H, Eol. 3 &ssue 4, p,http://lin+.spriner.com/content/pdf/3.3/>[email protected], s)haP N.'E VWthe regionW’ is in reference

to Latin America

As a matter of fact, some would arue that, today, China is no loner a “risin power”I)ut a “risen power.” HH &n a

sense, the emergence of a ne# great po#er in an important reion could intrinsically harm U(S( interests , sincerelati"e American power and influence in that reion miht proportionately decline unless the *nited States ependsmore efforts and resources to counteract the new player. Bhe deree to which increased Chinese power mihtendaner *.S. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how >eiin see+s to employ this power. An ad"ersarial*.S.6China relationship would find >eiin usin its rowin strenth in a purposeful and systematic assault on *.S.interests, as the ;1C would tend to "iew *.S. interests as )arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese oals. Bhisscenario would constitute a serious challene to *.S. interests, with potential to de"elop into a ne# Cold >ar . H

China’s inflence in Latin America threatens US inflence

CS *





Alas!a .%E' ENENDEB, Ne# Gerse" G6 De6N', Soth Carolina %ENGA6N L( CAD6N, ar"land G.7NN/ 6SAS.N,0eorgia .%E' )( CASE/, Gr(, )enns"lvania DAF6D F6''E, Loisiana G6 >E%%, Firginia G.7N %AASS., >"oming Anton" G( %lin!en, Staff Director enneth A( "ers, Gr(, ep+lican Staff Director, C76NA?S H.E60N ).L6C/ AND OOS.H'


e"ertheless, other o)ser"ers contend that China poses a potential threat to *.S. influence and interests in thereion. First, some maintain that )y presentin an alternati"e political and economic model66rapid economicrowth and moderni?ation alonside political authoritarianism66the ;1C undermines the *.S. aenda to ad"ance

political reform, human rihts and free trade in the reion.9 Accordin to this "iew, the Chinese model could









help strenthen anti6democratic and anti6*.S. political leaders and actors in some countries. Second, accordin tosome analysts, China's reional presence ultimately could ha"e sinificant strateic implications for the *nitedStates in the e"ent of a possi)le military conflict with China. &n this scenario, China could use its human and commercial infrastructure in the reion to disrupt and distract the *nited States in the hemisphere. Accordin tothis "iew, China's increased presence in the reion could also pro"ide the country with new opportunities tocollect intellience data aainst *.S. forces operatin in the reion.@

China ainin he in completion for 0atin America with *S

7ilton, senior editor of ###(chinadialoge(net, $*15(&sa)el, “China in 0atin America: -eemonic ChalleneR” J1%F: Fe)ruary 4, 43 Jnline:http://www.peace)uildin.no/"ar/e?flow!site/storae/oriinal/application/4ff3accc)dH@4c9af)[email protected]#

Bhe *nited States is 0atin America7s traditional heemonic power, )ut China7s influence in the reion is lare androwin. How far does China7s presence in the *.S. )ac+yard represent a heemonic challene? China is important in the region as a

buyer of Latin American resources, primarily from four countries, an important investor and an exporter of manufactured goods. The impact of Chinas activities varies in degree

from country to country. &n se"eral countries local manufacturin has suffered from cheaper Chinese imports8 se"eralcountries ha"e )enefited from Chinese demand for resources, others from lare in"estments, and China is ha"in animportant impact on the reion7s infrastructure. The ris+s to the region include resource curse, distorted de"elopment anden"ironmental deradation due to a lowering of environmental and social standards. !espite its significant economic presence, China has been careful to "eep a

low political and diplomatic profile to avoid antagonising the #.$. and to maintain a benign environment for its economic activities. Chinese support, however, has beenimportant for partners, such as Cuba and %ene&uela, that do not en'oy good relations with the #.$. $o far the two powers have sought cooperation rather than confrontation, but

rising tensions with *.S. allies (apan and %ietnam could ha"e repercussions in 0atin America if China feels the #.$. is becoming too assertive in its own

)ast Asian bac"yard.

China will use influence to challene the *.S. in the reionL%C 2 (0atin >usiness Chronicle, http://www.latin)usinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspRid\34@, China *ndermines *.S.in 0atin America8 http://www.latin)usinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspRid\34@#Bhe principal challene presented )y China in 0atin America comes from the way in which the Chinese presencechanes the strateic landscape of the reion in ways that may enerate pro)lems or complicatin factors for futureoperations. A num)er of mem)ers of the tas+ force noted that Chinese enaement with 0atin America isunderminin the spread of democracy and the *.S. aenda in the reion. Bhe Chinese model suests that a societycan lift itself out of po"erty usin a model of rowth that is not necessarily democratic. (...# Chinese communities

and Chinese capital will )ecome increasinly sinificant in reional politics. Bhe acti"ities of the Chinese firmAndes ;etroleum )ecame the focus of "iolence )y indienous acti"ists in Barapoa, ust as the manaement practicesof Shouan -ierro ;eru )ecame a maor political issue for the ;eru"ian o"ernment. ;otential colla)oration

)etween eistin criminal orani?ations may emere, such as those )etween pandillas or narco6traffic+ers. &n>oli"ia, for eample, a human traffic+in operation run )y the Chinese orani?ation “1ed Mraon” came to taintleislators and others at the hihest le"els of o"ernment. Such colla)oration, in the contet of the lanuaedifferences )etween Spanish6spea+in police and local security forces, and the new Chinese communities in thereion, can create new challenes, as can the emerence of any “turf wars” associated with the introduction of newChinese criminal orani?ations into territory pre"iously occupied )y 0atin American roups. Bhe Chinese presencein 0atin America will create increasin constraints to *.S. operations in the reion. Bhe April 4 "isit of AssistantSecretary of State Bhomas Shannon to >eiin to tal+ a)out 0atin America implicitly reconi?ed that China now hasa “seat at the ta)le” in 0atin American affairs that the *nited States must ta+e into account. Bhe physical Chinese

presence will also i"e China new opportunities to collect intellience data aainst *.S. forces operatin in the

reion, which could pro"ide "alue to China should the current )enin nature of the *.S.6China relationship chane.Such collection opportunities include Chinese access to the Cu)an listenin post at >eucal, as well as the Chinesecommercial presence at )oth ends of the strateically important ;anama Canal and in the lare container port inFreeport, >ahamas. &t also includes the concession ranted to -utchison hampoa to run the %cuadorian port of$anta, where an important *.S. Forward Jperatin 0ocation (FJ0# is located. &n each of these cases, the Chinese

presence is commercial, )ut could )e used in the future )y the Chinese state for intellience collection or otheracti"ities

http://www.chinadialogue.net/

http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=1297


http://www.chinadialogue.net/




%t O &ncreasin &nfluence +4 Sol"e%oosting U(S( inflence !e" to solve heg

Schaffer 1$ (Moulas <., ational Security Analyst with A*SA's &nstitute of 0and arfare, “0in+in 0atin Americaand the ;acific: A Stratey for the 0on Berm,” ational Security atch, 34(#, <uly,http://www.ausa.or/pu)lications/ilw/ilw!pu)s/nationalsecuritywatch/Mocuments/S!346!we).pdf#

Bhe second )enefit is a su)set of the *nited States counterin Chinese military presence in 0atin America. >y ta+in a nation6)y6nation approach, the *nitedStates can properly contetuali?e and tailor its militar" efforts with 0atin America. Bhis is an opportunity for the *nitedStates to focus on the non6+inetic aspects of its new defense uidance. $eico and Colom)ia may "ery well need continued hard6power6relatedresourcin and support from the *nited States8 howe"er, not e"ery nation is consumed )y a counternarcotics campain. Bhe humanitarian relief/ rescue, disaster response, capacity )uildin and

e"en cy)ersecurity reLuirements are ust as "alid for South and Central American nations. 39 A tailored approach will let the *nited States le"erage its

militar" as an instittion rather than &st as a force. Bhe *nited States military has le"els of epertise, eperience and professionalism in many functional

areasIsuch as loistics or personnelIthat China cannot match. $ore oint trainin eercises, more officer em)eddin and echanes, more professional education and

more noncom)at operations focus ()oth in eLuippin/sales and trainin# will show *.S. allies that the *nited States ta+es seriously the nuances ofeach nation and will force the *nited States to pay more than lip ser"ice to the non6counterterror aspects of its st rateic uidance. >y )ein an attenti"e andresponsi"e security partner that demonstrates a "aluation of relationships o"er material, the United States can

contrast itself to China in terms of relia)ility, lone"ity and lon6term aims for each nation



China 6nflence %ad – Sta+ilit"

Chinese dominance cases Latin American insta+ilit"

Gohnson *


=rowin trade deficits. 0atin American lead ers who sin trade and in"estment deals with the ;1C ha"e noticed that China'seports are more afforda)le than their own oods, which contri)utes to trade deficits. Chinese oods are made )y la)orerswho wor+ for one6third of the waes of 0atin American counterparts and who tolerate worse wor+in conditions. Jfficials in Arentina,>ra?il, and $eico ha"e sinaled their unease a)out trade with such a hot competitor. &n Septem)er 4H, $eican ;resident Eicente Fo made it clear to "isitin;resident -u <intao that dumpin electronics and clothin was unaccepta)le. For e"ery dollar that $eico ma+es from eports to China, the ;1C ma+es 23 from

eports to $eico.N@P Misinterest in economic reform. Some analysts )elie"e that the commodities6)ased trade model used )y China will undermine the proress that 0atin America has made toward industriali?ation. hile countries li+e Chile and >ra?il ha"e mo"ed )eyond raw materialseports, others with powerful presidents or rulin oliarchies may )e tempted to fall )ac+ on plantation economics. &ncome aps )etween the rich and poor may widen

as a result. $oreo"er , such narrowly focused economies are "ul nera)le to downturns in commodity prices. Some 55 percent of

0atin Americans already li"e )elow the po"erty line. &f these countries fail to adopt reforms, social ine9alit" and political

insta+ilit" could depress *.S. eports to the reion and increase miration pro)lems.

Latin American insta+ilit" cases glo+al #ar

an#aring * ($a =., 1etired *.S. Army colonel and an Adunct ;rofessor of &nternational ;olitics at Mic+insonCollee, E%%T*%0A7S -*=J C-E%T, >J0&EA1&A SJC&A0&S$, AM ASG$$%B1&C A1FA1%,Jcto)er 4H, p. ;*>49.pdf#Bhe &ssue of State Failure. 6 ;resident ChU"e? also understands that the process leadin to state failure is the most danerous lon6term securitychallene facin the lo)al community today. Bhe arument in eneral is that failin and failed state status is the )reedin roundfor insta)ility , criminality, insurency, reional conflict, and terrorism. Bhese conditions )reed massi"ehumanitarian disasters and maor refuee flows. Bhey can host “e"il” networ+s of all +inds, whether they in"ol"e criminal )usiness

enterprise, narco6traffic+in, or some form of ideoloical crusade such as >oli"arianismo. $ore specifically, these conditions spawn all+inds of thins people in eneral do not li+e such as murder, +idnappin, corruption, intimidation, and destruction ofinfrastructure. Bhese means of coercion and persuasion can spawn further human rihts "iolations, torture, po"erty, star"ation,

disease, the recruitment and use of child soldiers, traffic+in in women and )ody parts, traffic+in and proliferation of con"entional

weapons systems and $M, enocide , ethnic cleansin, warlordism, and criminal anarchy. At the same time, theseactions are usually unconfined and spill o"er into reional syndromes of po"erty, desta)ili?ation, and conflict.4 ;eru7s Sendero

0uminoso calls "iolent and destructi"e acti"ities that facilitate the processes of state failure “armed propaanda.” Mru cartels operatinthrouhout the Andean 1ide of South America and elsewhere call these acti"ities “)usiness incenti"es .” ChU"e?considers these actions to )e steps that must )e ta+en to )rin a)out the political conditions necessary to esta)lish 0atin American socialism forthe 43st century. Bhus, in addition to helpin to pro"ide wider latitude to further their tactical and operational o)ecti"es, state and nonstateactors7 strateic efforts are aimed at proressi"ely lessenin a tareted reime7s credi)ility and capa)ility in terms of its a)ility and willinness too"ern and de"elop its national territory and society. ChU"e?7s intent is to focus his primary attac+ politically and

psycholoically on selected 0atin American o"ernments7 a )ility and riht to o"ern. &n that contet, he understands that popular perceptions of corruption, disenfranchisement, po"erty, and lac+ of upward mo)ility limit the riht and the a)ility of a i"en reime to conductthe )usiness of the state. *ntil a i"en populace enerally percei"es that its o"ernment is dealin with these and other )asic issues of political,economic, and social inustice fairly and effecti"ely, insta)ility and the threat of su)"ertin or destroyin such a o"ernment are real.5 >utfailin and failed states simply do not o away. Eirtually anyone can ta+e ad"antae of such an unsta)le situation. Bhetendency is that the )est moti"ated and )est armed orani?ation on the scene will control that insta)ility. As aconseLuence, failin and failed states )ecome dysfunctional states, roue states, criminal states, narco6states, or new people7s democracies. &n

connection with the creation of new people7s democracies, one can rest assured that ChU"e? and his >oli"arian populist allies will )ea"aila)le to pro"ide money, arms, and leadership at any i"en opportunity . And, of course, the loner dysfunctional, roue,criminal, and narco6states and people7s democracies persist, the more they and their associated pro)lems endaner lo)al security, peace, and

prosperity.H





At +est, Chinese expansion in Latin America onl" +enefits the extremel" #ealth" – it cases povert",

nemplo"ment, and environmental damage

ell" 11 (Annie elly, riter for Bhe =uardian and specialist in lo)al human rihts and social affairs, Fe)ruary3th 433, “ho really )enefits from China's trade with 0atin AmericaR”, http://www.uardian.co.u+/lo)al6de"elopment/po"erty6matters/433/fe)/3/china6latin6america6trade6)enefit#

&n the past decade, 0atin America has ta+en reat strides in liftin millions out of po"erty. Get in a continent with the most uneLualincome distri)ution in the world, and where, accordin to * fiures, 39@ million people still li"e on less than 24 a day (a)out 5[ of

the population#, who is really )enefitin from the Chinese economic )oomR &nstead of wor+in towards )etter wealthdistri)ution, a 45 report )y the 0atin America/Cari))ean and Asia/;acific %conomics and >usiness Association warned that Chineseepansion could actually ha"e a detrimental impact on the "ulnera)ility and eclusion of the poor from economicacti"ity. &t arued that China's epansion into the reion has )een fuelled )y the need for aricultural and etracti"eresources O enery oil reser"es, iron ore, copper and soy O mostly non6la)our intensi"e products that are unli+ely to ha"e a )i positi"e impact

on the poor. &n fact, the report concludes that the most "ulnera)le could ha"e )een neati"ely affected as a result of theChinese6led epansion. Bhe soy industry is a case in point. hile China has helped South America's soy)eanindustries epand their access to lo)al mar+ets, few )enefits ha"e one to rural communities. Mespite risin

production, employment and waes ha"e decreased with the proliferation of hih6"olume monoculture farmin. For

eample, while >ra?ilian soy production Luadrupled )etween 3@@H and 4@, employment in the sector actually shran+. Soy production hasalso )een lin+ed to the deforestation of H49, sL +m of the >ra?ilian Ama?on rainforest. A research proect )ac+ed )ythe &nstitute of Me"elopment Studies and the >ritish Academy is loo+in into the lin+s )etween Chinese )usiness in 0atin America and the

+noc+6on impact on poor communities. 1esearchers in ;eru ha"e found that Chinese companies runnin state or pri"ate enterprises ha"e littlemeaninful or positi"e enaement with local communities or la)our oranisations. eil 1enwic+, a uni"ersity professor of lo)alsecurity at Co"entry *ni"ersity, is one of the researchers leadin the proect. -e says that >eiin's approach in 0atin Americais indicati"e of its domestic approach to de"elopment. Y&n many ways, the Chinese approach Nin 0atin AmericaPreflects the hih price the NChineseP people ha"e paid for de"elopment, for eample, with reard to po"erty,ineLuality, corruption or the en"ironment,Y he says. China's determination to ta+e ad"antae of the spendin power of0atin America's emerin middle classes throuh floodin local mar+ets with cheap Chinese oods could also affectthe rowth of domestic manufacturin, often "ital to rowin local employment and income opportunities and toreducin po"erty. 0ast year Arentina fell foul of China when it announced it planned to impose a ta on cheap Chinese shoes to protectlocal producers. China suspended an order for more than 4 million tonnes of soya oil from Arentina citin safety concerns. Arentina's economyis now hea"ily reliant on its annual 23.H)n soy eports to China. &t is not a relationship it can afford to lose. *ltimately, 1enwic+ )elie"esthe current model of epansion is unli+ely to pro"e a positi"e model for po"erty reduction for 0atin America's 39@million poor. -owe"er, he does )elie"e this can chane. -e says that 0atin American o"ernments, and not the Chinese, must )e the ones whota+e steps to ensure the )usiness )oom translates into meaninful impro"ement in the li"es of the most "ulnera)le.



China 6nflence %ad – Environment

China leverages economic inflence to destro" the environment

>atts 5=$2/3 (<onathan 6 Asia %n"ironment Correspondent for Bhe =uardian, “China7s eploitation of 0atinAmerican natural resources raises concern,” Bhe =uardian, http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/chinas6eploitation6of6latin6american6natural6resources6raises6concern/#Ama?onian forest cleared in %cuador , a mountain le"elled in ;eru, the Cerrado sa"annah con"erted to soy fields in >ra?il and oil fields underde"elopment in Eene?uela7s Jrinoco )elt. Bhese recent reports of en"ironmental deradation in 0atin America may )e thousandsof miles apart in different countries and for different products, )ut they ha"e a common cause : rowin Chinesedemand for reional commodities. Bhe world7s most populous nation has oined the ran+s of wealthy countries in %urope, orth America and %ast Asia that ha"e lonconsumed and polluted unsustaina)ly. Bhis has led to what author $ichael B lare calls “a race for what7s left” and its impact i s particularly e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped,

unspoiled natural resources. %"en more than Africa, 0atin America has )ecome a maor focus of >eiin7s dri"e for commodities. A study last year )y %nriLue Mussel;eters, a professor at the ational Autonomous *ni"ersity of $eico, found that the reion has )een the leadindestination for Chinese forein direct in"estment I mostly for raw materials and )y )i o"ernment6run companiessuch as Chinalco and CJJC. Since the 49 financial crisis, China has also )ecome the main lender to the reion.&n 43, it pro"ided *S2 )illion (]45 )illion# in loans I more than the orld >an+, &nter6American >an+ andthe *S &mport6%port >an+ com)ined. $ost of this has one to four primary eporters I Eene?uela, >ra?il,Arentina and %cuador I for minin or transport infrastructure. Bhe economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous. Brade )etween China and 0atin Americawas ust *S23 )illion in 4. &n 433, it had sured to *S2 453 )illion. hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country, this helped 0atin America a"oid the worst of thefinancial and economic crises that ripped much of the de"eloped world and pro"ided etra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation prorammes that ha"e eased the reion7s notorious ineLuality. &t also

played a maor part in )olsterin left6leanin o"ernments that are see+in an alternati"e to neo6li)eral prescriptions from ashinton and all Street. Eene?uela and %cuador, which ha"e )eenuna)le to access international capital mar+ets since defaultin, ha"e recei"ed hefty loans from China. Arentina is see+in similar treatment. >ut i"in up one + ind of dependency can lead to

another. 1epayments to China are uaranteed )y lon6term commodity sales, which means a commitment to push aheadwith resource eploitation I often with dire conseLuences for the en"ironment and indienous communities.“China is shoppin worldwide for natural resources . e7re in the midst of a process of commodity accumulation )ythem. &n that contet, they lend money to %cuador and the o"ernment pays with oil throuh anticipated sales. eha"e committed sales to them up until 43@,” said Al)erto Acosta, who ser"ed as enery minister )ut has sincechallened the o"ernment of ;resident 1afael Correa. -e estimates his country7s de)ts to China at *S23 )illion.Bhe lopsided nature of China60atin America trade is also Luestioned )ecause while it is ood in terms of =M;Luantity, it has not )een so )eneficial in de"elopmental Luality. Commodity suppliers are delihted at the Chinese demand for their eports, )ut

manufacturers complain of a flood of cheap Chinese imports that undermine their competiti"eness.

Extinction

.’Neal 82 ($artin, “1ain Forest Mepletion,” H6H, http://www.northern.w"net.edu/tdanford/)io3/1A&FJ.htm#

Bhere are some really ama?in facts a)out the Ama?on rain forest . Bhe Ama?on alone co"ers H5[ of all the world7s rainforests , thus ma!ing it literall" the lngs of the Earth. e can say this )ecause trees produce oyen while they usecar)on dioide to maintain their respiration. 1ain forests co"er a)out [ of the %arth7s surface, )ut host a)out H6@[ of the

plant and animal population of the entire world. Bhe Ama?on 1i"er has more species of fish than the entire Atlantic Jceandoes. &n less than 4H acres of rain forest there are more species of trees than the entire continent of orth America. A tree foundin ;eru was found to )e the host to 5 different species of ants. Bhere are more species of )irds on a ;eru reser"e than the entire*nited States has. A fact that is "ery hihly rearded a)out the Ama?on rain forest is that of the species of plants that ha"e

)een disco"ered there, [ of these plants ha"e anti6cancerous properties. Also, 4H[ of these plants are now used to com)atcancer. So as human+ind continues to har"est the Ama?on rain forest which co"ers 3.4 million acres and @ countries, theyshould also try to consider the de"astatin effects that it is ha"in on our race alon with all the )ioloical effectsthat it also carries. Althouh 3.4 million acres seems li+e a "ery lare num)er, in the past four decades that num)er was reducedin half to the current fiure, so we see that this can not +eep happenin with out some type of o"ernin on what is occurrin. &f

it does #e ma" +ecome an endangered species.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/26/ecuador-chinese-oil-bids-amazon


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/20/chinese-mining-peru-corporate-responsibility

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/brazil

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/commodities

http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/DP33DusselNov12.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/china

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/ecuador



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/20/chinese-mining-peru-corporate-responsibility

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/brazil

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/commodities

http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/DP33DusselNov12.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/china




Ext – ills Enviro

Chinese economic inflence damages !e" environmental areas – Ama;on, Andes

0allagher =15/43 (e"in 6 professor of international relations at >oston *ni"ersity V co6director of the =lo)al%conomic =o"ernance &nitiati"e, “0atin America playin a ris+y ame )y welcomin in the Chinese draon,” Bhe=uardian, http://www.uardian.co.u+/lo)al6de"elopment/po"erty6matters/43/may//latin6america6ris+y6chinese6draon#

Bhe Chinese president, Wi <inpin, tra"els to the *S and 0atin America this wee+, for the first time since he too+ office in $arch. hat adifference a decade ma+es. Ben years ao, there would hardly ha"e )een any fanfare a)out a Chinese "isit to the reion. ow, for >ra?il,Chile and others, China is the most important trade and in"estment partner. China60atin America trade surpassed24H)n (]3H)n# last year. Althouh China's impact in Africa recei"es the most attention, China trades ust as much in 0atin America as inAfrica, and has more in"estments in the reion. Chinese finance in 0atin America O chiefly from the China Me"elopment >an+ and the %port6

&mport >an+ of China O is staerinly lare and rowin. &n a recently updated report, colleaues and & estimate that, since 4H, China has pro"ided loan commitments of more than 29)n to 0atin American countries. Bhat is more than the orld >an+ or

the &nter6American Me"elopment >an+ ha"e pro"ided to the reion durin the same period. China's presence is a reatopportunity for 0atin America, )ut it )rins new ris+s. &f the reion can sei?e the new opportunities that come with Chinese finance, countriescould come closer to their de"elopment oals, and pose a real challene to the way western6)ac+ed de"elopment )an+s do )usiness. -owe"er, if0atin American nations don't channel this new trade and in"estment toward lon6term rowth and sustaina)ility, the ris+s may ta+e away many ofthe rewards. First, the positi"e side. Chinese trade and in"estment is partly a )lessin for 0atin America )ecause it di"ersifies the sources offinance O finance that for too lon has relied on the west. Bhe *S and %uropean economies ha"e )een anaemic since 49, and trade with Chinahas tued 0atin American rowth rates to impressi"e le"els. %"ery 3[ increase in Chinese rowth is correlated with a 3.4[ increase in 0atinAmerican rowth. Chinese finance is more in tune with what 0atin American nations want, rather than with what western de"elopment epertssay they YneedY. hereas the *S and international financial institutions (&F&s# such as the orld >an+ and &$F tend to finance in line with thelatest de"elopment fads such as trade li)eralisation and micro6anti6po"erty prorammes, Chinese loans tend to o into enery and infrastructure

proects in a reion that has an annual infrastructure ap of 24)n. either do Chinese loans come with the harsh strins attached to &F& finance.Bhe &F&s are notorious for their YconditionalitiesY that ma+e )orrowers sin up to austerity and structural adustment prorammes that ha"e hadLuestiona)le outcomes on rowth and eLuality in the reion. >ut there are ris+s. hile the Chinese do not attach policy conditions to their loans,they ha"e reLuired that )orrowers contract Chinese firms, )uy Chinese eLuipment, and sometimes sin oil sale areements that reLuire nations tosend oil to China in echane for the loans instead of local currency. Chinese in"estment accentuates the deindustrialisation of 0atin America.0are scale, capital intensi"e commodities production is not "ery employment6intensi"e, nor does it lin+ well with other sectors of an economy.Mependence on commodities can cause a Yresource curseY where the echane rate appreciates such that eporters of manufacturin and ser"icesindustries can't compete in world mar+ets O and thus contri)ute to deindustrialisation and economic "ulnera)ility. ;roducin naturalresource6)ased commodities also )rins maor en"ironmental ris+. $any of China's iron, soy and copper proectsare found in 0atin America's most en"ironmentally sensiti"e areas. &n areas such as the Ama?on and the Andeanhihlands, conflict o"er natural resources, property rihts and sustaina)le li"elihoods ha"e )een rife for decades. &nour report, we find that Chinese )an+s actually operate under a set of en"ironmental uidelines that surpass those of their

western counterparts when at China's stae of de"elopment. e"ertheless, those uidelines are not on par with 43st century standardsfor de"elopment )an+in. Stroner standards should )e in place at a time when en"ironmental concerns are at an all6time hih. ith e"ery opportunity comes a challene. 0atin Americans ha"e access to a new source of finance that i"es them more leeway tomeet their own de"elopment oals. &f 0atin America doesn't channel some of the finance to support macroeconomic sta)ility, economicdi"ersification, eLuality and en"ironmental protection, this new source of finance could )rin reat ris+.

eliance on Chinese trade cases massive ecological damage in the Ama;on and violation of rights of

indigenos peoples – Ecador proves

)o#ell <=1*/3 (-elena O &nternational Affairs writer at ;ulsamerica, “China/0atin America: %cuador to sellAma?on rainforest to Chinese,” ;ulsamerica, http://www.pulsamerica.co.u+/43/5/3/chinalatin6america6ecuador6

plans6to6sell6off6ama?on6rainforest6land6to6chinese6oil6companies/#

Bhe %cuadorean o"ernment is reportedly auctionin off m hectares of the Ama?onian rainforest for oil eploration proects funded )y Chinese oil companies. Bhis swathe of land amounts to nearly half of the total rainforest that fallswithin %cuadorean )orders. 0ast wee+ %cuadorean politicians tra"elled to >eiin to pitch )iddin contracts to representati"es of state6



owned companies such as China ;etrochemical and China ational Jffshore Jil. -owe"er the deal is pro"o+in "ocal oppositionfrom se"en different indienous roups who li"e on the land. Bhey claim that they were not consulted a)out the

proect, which will threaten their land and way of life. An open letter written )y an association of indienous roups pleaded, Qthat pu)lic and pri"ate oil companies across the world do not participate in the )iddin process that systematically "iolates the rihts of se"enindienous nationalities )y imposin oil proects in their ancestral territories.7 Such action on the part of the %cuadorean o"ernment would )e incontra"ention of international law, as decreed )y the &nter6American Court on -uman 1ihts last year durin a case in"ol"in the protection ofthe lands of the Saraya+u roup, also resident in %cuador. Accordin to the rulin, o"ernments must ha"e, Qfree, prior and informed consent7from nati"e tri)es )efore appro"in oil acti"ities on their land. Accordin to arcisa $arshienta, a women7s leader of the Shuar people, Qhatthe o"ernment7s )een sayin as they ha"e )een offerin up our land is not true8 they ha"e not consulted us.7 She added, Qe7re here to tell the

)i in"estors that they don7t ha"e our permission to eploit our land.7 %cuador7s secretary for hydrocar)ons, Andrs Monoso Fa)ara, criticised theindienous roups as ha"in, Qa political aenda7, and defended the o"ernment7s actions sayin, Qe are entitled )y law, if we wanted, to o in

)y force and do some acti"ities e"en if they are aainst them. >ut that7s not our policy.7 Fa)ara also claimed that the contracts were a"aila)le to )idders other than China, Qe7re loo+in for lo)al in"estors, not ust in"estors from China. >ut of course Chinese companies are really

aressi"e. &n a )iddin process, they miht present the winnin )ids.7 Mespite the o"ernment7s assertions critics are notcon"inced of the eplanation, pointin instead to %cuador7s etreme financial reliance on China. Adam Tuc+erman,an en"ironmental and human rihts campainer at Ama?on atch, said, Q$y understandin is that this is more of ade)t issue O it7s )ecause the %cuadoreans are so dependent on the Chinese to finance their de"elopment that they7rewillin to compromise in other areas such as social and en"ironmental reulations. Bhe messae that they7re tryin to send to

international in"estors is not in line with reality.7 &ndeed, as of summer 434 %cuador was inde)ted to China to the tune of o"er2)n, which is more than a tenth of the country7s =M;. &n addition, since 4@ the two countries ha"e )een enaed in a Qmoney6for6oil7 arranement, where China loans %cuador )illions of dollars in return for su)sidised oil. As well as loanin money China has in"ested in

two maor hydroelectric infrastructure proects and is in tal+s to fund a [ sta+e in a 234.H)n oil refinery in %cuador. Tuc+erman also

drew attention to China7s "oracious appetite for enery leadin the country to circum"ent its own uidelines. &fChina )id for, and wins, the contract it will "iolate its new in"estment protocol, which promises to act in the interestof the local community and en"ironment. Bhe ructions caused )y the proect coincide with en"ironmental pro)lemsin neih)ourin ;eru, resultin from oil pollution. Bhe ;asta?a ri"er )asin in the northern Ama?on near the %cuadorean

)order has )een home to oil fields operated )y the Arentinean company ;luspetrol since 43, and the area has )ecome so polluted thatthe ;eru"ian o"ernment has )een forced to declare an en"ironmental state of emerency.


http://www.eurasiareview.com/30082012-ecuador-ruling-in-favor-of-sarayaku-tribe/

http://www.businessinsider.com/ecuador-selling-its-rainforest-to-china-2013-3


http://www.eurasiareview.com/30082012-ecuador-ruling-in-favor-of-sarayaku-tribe/

http://www.businessinsider.com/ecuador-selling-its-rainforest-to-china-2013-3



A$ China Econ 6mpact

U(S( is still +iggest econom" – #on’t case #ar

Shor 1$ (Francis, ;rofessor of -istory O ayne State, “Meclinin *S -eemony and 1isin Chinese ;ower: AFormula for ConflictR”, ;erspecti"es on =lo)al Me"elopment and Bechnoloy, 33(3#, pp. 3H63#hile the * nited S tates no loner dominates the lo)al economy as it did durin the first two decades after &&, it still isthe leadin economic power in the world. -owe"er , o"er the last few decades China , with all its internal contradictions,

has made enormous leaps until it now occupies the num)er two spot. &n fact, the &$F recently proected that the Chineseeconomy would )ecome the world's larest in 43. &n manufacturin China has displaced the *S in so many areas, includin )ecomin thenum)er one producer of steel and eporter of four6fifths of all of the tetile products in the world and two6thirds of the world's copymachines, MEM players, and microwa"es o"ens. Get, a sinificant portion of this manufacturin is still owned )y foreincompanies, includin *.S. firms li+e =eneral $otors. NHP Jn the other hand, China is also the largest holder of U(S(

foreign reserves, e(g( treasr" +onds. Bhis may )e one of the reasons mitigating fll-+lo#n conflict with the*.S. now , since China has such a lare sta+e in the *.S. economy, )oth as a holder of )onds and as the leadin eporter of oods to the*.S. onetheless, Ythe *.S. has )loc+ed se"eral lare scale Chinese in"estments and )uyouts of oil companies, technoloy firms, and otherenterprises.Y NP &n effect, there are still clear nation6centric responses to China's risin economic power, especially as an epression of the*.S. o"ernin elite's ideoloical commitment to national security.

Economic decline doesn’t case #ar

'ir 1* N<arosla" Bir 6 ;h.M. in ;olitical Science, *ni"ersity of &llinois at *r)ana6Champain and is an Associate

;rofessor in the Mepartment of &nternational Affairs at the *ni"ersity of =eoria, “Berritorial Mi"ersion:Mi"ersionary Bheory of ar and Berritorial Conflict”, Bhe <ournal of ;olitics, 43, Eolume 4: 53654H#P%mpirical support for the economic rowth rate is much wea+er. Bhe findin that poor economic performance isassociated with a hiher li+elihood of territorial conflict initiation is sinificant only in $odels O5.35 Bhe wea+results are not altoether surprisin i"en the findins from prior literature. &n accordance with the insinificant relationships

of $odels 3O4 and HO, Jstrom and <o) (3@9#, for eample, note that the li+elihood that a *.S. ;resident will use force isuncertain, as the )ad economy miht create incenti"es )oth to di"ert the pu)lic7s attention with a forein ad"entureand to focus on sol"in the economic pro)lem , thus reducin the inclination to act a)road . Similarly, Fordham (3@@9a,

3@@9)#, Me1ouen (3@@H#, and =owa (3@@9# find no relation )etween a poor economy and *.S. use of force. Furthermore,

0eeds and Ma"is (3@@# conclude that the conflict6initiatin )eha"ior of 39 industriali?ed democracies is unrelated toeconomic conditions as do ;ic+erin and isanani (4H# and 1ussett and Jneal (43# in lo)al studies. &n contrast andmore in line with my findins of a sinificant relationship (in $odels O5#, -ess and Jrphanides (3@@H#, for eample, arue that economicrecessions are lin+ed with forceful action )y an incum)ent *.S. president. Furthermore, Fordham7s (44# re"ision of =owa7s (3@@9# analysisshows some effect of a )ad economy and Me1ouen and ;ea+e (44# report that *.S. use of force di"erts the pu)lic7s attention from a poor

economy. Amon cross6national studies, Jneal and 1ussett (3@@# report that slow rowth increases the incidence of militari?ed disputes, as does1ussett (3@@#I)ut only for the *nited States8 slow rowth does not affect the )eha"ior of other countries. isanani and ;ic+erin (4#report some sinificant associations, )ut they are sensiti"e to model specification, while Bir and <asins+i (49# find a clearer lin+ )etweeneconomic underperformance and increased attac+s on domestic ethnic minorities. hile none of these wor+s has focused on territorial di"ersions,my own inconsistent findins for economic rowth fit well with the mied results reported in the literature.3H -ypothesis 3 thus recei"es stron

support "ia the unpopularity "aria)le )ut only wea+ support "ia the economic rowth "aria)le. Bhese results suest that em)attledleaders are much more li+ely to respond with territorial di"ersions to direct sins of their unpopularity (e.., stri+es,

protests, riots# than to eneral )ac+round conditions such as economic malaise. ;resuma)ly, protesters can )e distracted "iaterritorial di"ersions while fiin the economy would ta+e a more concerted and proloned policy effort. >ad economic conditions seem tomoti"ate only the most serious, fatal territorial confrontations. Bhis implies that leaders may )e reser"in the most hih6profile and ris+ydi"ersions for the times when they are the most desperate, that is when their power is threatened )oth )y sins of discontent with their rule and )ymore systemic pro)lems plauin the country (i.e., an underperformin economy#.

No impact to the Chinese econom" and the CC) solves econ collapse

Coonan V (3/4H, Clifford, &rishBimes.com, “China's stallin )oom has lo)e worried,”

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/49/34H/[email protected]#

All of this down)eat news feeds into a rowin suspicion that China has had its ca+e and eaten for way too lon, and that there is simply no precedent for a country rowin and rowin without some +ind of respite. %sta)lishin what that pause will loo+ li+e and what it means tothe rest of the world is the latest challene facin lo)al analysts. A hano"er is considered ine"ita)le and the Jlympics, whilemeaninless economically, are widely considered the psycholoical trier for China to face a slowdown. Mespite all this loom, howe"er,

writin China off is premature. Bhe >eiin o"ernment is well placed to help protect the economy fro m the worst ra"aes

of a lo)al downturn. &t has spent the last two years tryin to fiht inflation and cool the o"erheatin economy, so it'sa lot easier for it to ta+e the foot off the )ra+es than it is to put them on in the first place. Bhe central )an+ has lowered its

)enchmar+ interest rate twice in the past two months, the first time in si years. Bhe State Council is increasin spendin on



infrastructure, offerin ta re)ates for eporters and allowin state6controlled prices for aricultural products to rise. %pectsinificant measures to +ic+6start the property mar+et to a"oid house prices fallin too drastically. China has a lot of

plus points to help out. Chinese )an+s did not issue su)prime loans as a rule, and the country's 3.5 trillion in hard6currency reser"es is a useful war chest to call on in a downturn . Bhe currency is sta)le and there are hihliLuidity le"els, all of which i"e China the most flei)ility in the world to fend off the impact of the lo)al financial

crisis , says <; $oran economist Fran+ =on. China is now a lo)alised economy, )ut its domestic mar+et is still massi"elyundereploited, and it is to this mar+et that the o"ernment will most li+ely turn. hile it is a lo)alised economy committedto the BJ, China is also a centralised economy run )y the Communist ;arty, and it has no real political opposition at home to stop it actinhowe"er it sees fit to stop slidin rowth. Should the economy start to worsen sinificantly, pu)lic aner will increase, )ut China has )een sosuccessful in +eepin a tiht leash on the internet and the media that it is difficult for opposition to oranise itself in a meaninful way.1ecent years of surin rowth in China ha"e certainly done a lot to +eep lo)al economic data loo+in rosy, )ut perhaps China'sinfluence has )een somewhat o"ersold. &t is not a )i enouh economy )y itself to +eep the lo)al economy tic+ino"er, accountin for H per cent of the world economy , compared to the *nited States with a muscular 49 per cent. Andwhate"er a)out slowin rowth, @ per cent is still an admira)le rate, one that %uropean leaders athered this wee+end in >eiin for theAsian6%urope $eetin would i"e their eye teeth to )e a)le to present to their constituencies.



A$ CC) Sta+ilit" 6mpact

No CC) collapseIthe government represses insta+ilit"

)ei 8 ($inin, Senior Associate in the China ;roram at the Carneie %ndowment for &nternational ;eace, /34. “ill the Chinese Communist;arty Sur"i"e the CrisisR” Forein Affairs. http://www.foreinaffairs.com/articles/594/minin6pei/will6the6chinese6communist6party6sur"i"e6the6crisis#

&t miht seem reasona)le to epect that challenes from the disaffected ur)an middle class, frustrated collee raduates, and unemployedmirants will constitute the principal threat to the party's rule. &f those roups were in fact to )and toether in a powerful coalition, then theworld's lonest6rulin party would indeed )e in deep trou)le. >ut that is not oin to happen. Such a re"olutionary scenario o"erloo+stwo critical forces )loc+in political chane in China and similar authoritarian political systems: the r eime's capacity forrepression and the unity amon the elite. %conomic crisis and social unrest may ma+e it touher for the CC; too"ern, )ut they will not loosen the party's hold on power . A lance at countries such as Tim)a)we, orth orea,Cu)a, and >urma shows that a relati"ely unified elite in control of the military and police can clin to power throuh

)rutal force, e"en in the face of a)ysmal economic failure. Misunity within the rulin elite, on the other hand, wea+ens the reime's

repressi"e capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom. Bhe CC; has already demonstrated its remar+a)le a)ility to contain andsuppress chronic social protest and small6scale dissident mo"ements . Bhe reime maintains the ;eople's Armed;olice, a well6trained and well6eLuipped anti6riot force of 4H,. &n addition, China's secret police are amon the most capa)le inthe world and are aumented )y a "ast networ+ of informers. And althouh the &nternet may ha"e made control of information more difficult,

Chinese censors can still react Luic+ly and thorouhly to end the dissemination of danerous news. Since the Biananmen

crac+down, the Chinese o"ernment has reatly refined its repressi"e capa)ilities. 1espondin to tens of thousands of riots each yearhas made Chinese law enforcement the most eperienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion. Chinese statesecurity ser"ices ha"e applied the tactic of Ypolitical decapitationY to reat effect, Luic+ly arrestin protest leaders and lea"in their followersdisorani?ed, demorali?ed, and impotent. &f worsenin economic conditions lead to a potentially eplosi"e political situation, the party will stic+to these tried6and6true practices to ward off any orani?ed mo"ement aainst the reime.

Even if, no escalation

Cople" 2 O Award6winnin historian and lo)al strateist8 foundin Mirector of Future Mirections &nternational ;ty.0td. and its Actin Chief %ecuti"e8 %ditor, =&S(=reory, /. YA"oidin an %conomic ;andemic: Bhe Critical =lo)al Sinificance of the -ealth of the ;1C %conomy,YMefense V Forein Affairs Special Analysis, 0eis.#

Bhere is scope or flei)ility for the ;1C to somewhat transform its enery demands in the lo)al mar+etplace. Am).Freeman ma+es the point that domestic and international pressures seem li+ely to cause the ;1C to impro"e its

enery efficiency throuh internal inno"ation. -e noted that despite the ;1C's Y"ery low rates of per capita eneryconsumption (which are only a)out 35 percent of *S per capita consumption#, China consumes )etween se"en and333/4 times more enery than <apan to produce one dollar of ross domestic product (=M;#, and it's a)out 53/4times less efficient than is the *nited StatesY. And many of the inno"ations which the ;1C is eplorin are in thearea of clean coal and nuclear enery. &t seems clear that it is in the interests of the international community to helpthe ;1C sta)ili?e its enery situation, and to impro"e enery usae efficiency, in order to minimi?e ris+s to thelo)al security framewor+, within the framewor+ of competin enery needs. Bhe only alternati"e, from thestandpoint of eternal powers, to assistin in the process of sta)ili?in the ;1C's enery supply, currency credi)ility,and population unrest is to plan for the containment of any implosion of political sta)ility within the ;1C should itstransition d urin the net two decades to entrenched power status )e interrupted .



A$ .il 6mpact

Latin America isn’t !e" to Chinese oil

CS *



7A0EL, Ne+ras!a USSELL D( HE6N0.LD, >isconsin N. C.LEAN, innesota %A%AA %.:E, California %.%C.E, 'ennessee %6LL NELS.N, Hlorida 0E.0E F( F.6N.F6C7, .hio %AAC .%AA, 6llinois L6SA U.>S6,Alas!a .%E' ENENDEB, Ne# Gerse" G6 De6N', Soth Carolina %ENGA6N L( CAD6N, ar"land G.7NN/ 6SAS.N,


).>E?? 6N S.U'7 AE6CA, AS6A, AND AH6CA, 0overnment )rinting .ffice, April $**, http://www.po.o"/fdsys/p+/C;1B633S;1B53@4/html/C;1B633S;[email protected]#%nery concerns ha"e played a role in China's o"ertures toward 0atin America, with the ;1C either concludin or

eplorin "arious enery in"estments in >ra?il, %cuador, >oli"ia, ;eru, Colom)ia, and Eene?uela, as well asoffshore proects in Arentina and Cu)a. Bhe three maor, state6owned Chinese enery corporations ma+in0atin American in"estments are the China ;etroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec#, China ationalJffshore Jil Corporation (CJJC#, and China ational ;etroleum Corporation (C;C#. &n April 4, Sinopec

sined an areement with >ra?il's ;etro)ras to )uild a natural as pipeline lin+in the northeast and southeast of>ra?il. ;etro)ras and CJJC also reportedly are studyin the feasi)ility of oint operations in eploration,

refinin, and pipeline construction around the world. &n Cu)a, Sinopec has focused on onshore oil etraction in;inar del 1io pro"ince in western Cu)a. &n Eene?uela, C;C is partnered with Eene?uela's state6oil company,;dESA (;etroleos de Eene?uela, S.A.#, for eploration in de"elopment of the Jrinoco )elt oil reser"es. Mespitethese in"estments in oil production and assets, o)ser"ers point out that China relies relati"ely little on 0atinAmerica for oil, which accounts for some [ of China's oil imports, and that while the percentae could rise a )it,it is unli+ely to chane sinificantly in the future.54

Chinese energ" secrit" inevita+le and is not +ased on oil spplies

atthe#s 2=5(<ohn $atthews, Australian professor of competiti"e dynamics and lo)al stratey, 1enewa)les manufacturin )oosts Chinese enery security,Financial Bimes, //3. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s//dadcc6ed633e46)d96355fea)dc.html#

Sir, 0eslie -oo+ writes that shale as is “critical to China7s enery future” (“China li+ely to miss taret for 43H shale as output”, <uly #. &t is true that China mayindeed miss its self6imposed “taret” of .H)n cu)ic metres of shale as )y 43H, and may ha"e to watch as the *S pulls ahead in dri"in its own dependence on

fossil6fuelled enery systems to new heihts (or depths#. >ut in terms of “enery security”, which is the sloan utilised in the *S )yshale oil and as proponents, China is actually doin "ery well O )y )asin a considera)le part of its enerystrateies on manufactured renewa)le enery systems. China7s de"elopment of wind power mo"es ahead at a pacethat far outstrips that of other leadin industrial powers, so that the 43H taret of 3= (itself already raised# and the 44 taret of 4=

are li+ely to )e eceeded. $eanwhile, solar photo"oltaic production is already mo"in to second6eneration thin6filmtechnoloy (where Solyndra was outuessed )y the *S mar+et#8 and in the new field of concentrated solar power Outilisin mirror and lens arrays O China has recently proposed tarets of = for 43H and 3= for 44. Bhesenew tarets would more than dou)le world output and dri"e companies alon the cost6reduction cur"e.

)+lic opinion and nationalism are the driving sorce of tension in the Soth China Sea – oil isn?t !e"

Nehr =$5=1$ (Ei+ram, Bhe ational &nterest, senior associate and >a+rie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at theCarneie %ndowment for &nternational ;eace, YCollision Course in the South China Sea,Yhttp://nationalinterest.or/commentary/collision6course6the6south6china6sea69Rpae\3#

Certainly, the potential costs of conflict for the reion and the world far outweih any potential economic )enefitscontained in the sea)ed of the South China SeaImuch of which is un+nown in any case. 1ather than the a"aila)ilityof hydrocar)ons and fisheries , the South China Sea dispute is no# increasingl" +eing driven +" domestic p+lic

opinion in the countries concerned that is fueled )y military lo))ies and stron nationalist sentiments.

Chinese resorce gra+s #ill +e peacefl

Dannrether 11 66 ;rofessor and -ead of Mepartment of ;olitics and &nternational 1elations, *ni"ersity ofestminster (1oland, 33/3/33, YChina and lo)al oil: "ulnera)ility and opportunity,Y &nt'l Affairs 9(#, %>SCJ#





http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da6d77cc-e33d-11e2-bd87-00144feabdc0.html



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da6d77cc-e33d-11e2-bd87-00144feabdc0.html



Bhe picture that emeres is a mied and comple one. Jn the one hand, there is e"idence that China7s enery6related diplomacyand enaement ha"e )ecome increasinly supporti"e of the efficient operation of international enery mar+ets. As a

conseLuence, China has )ecome more willin to reconi?e the international pu)lic oods pro"ided )y the est in supplyin

security and military protection for these mar+ets. Bhere has )een a nota)le shift, as arued a)o"e, in China7s stratey away from a neo6mercantilist approach which see+s to a"oid reliance on mar+ets and to ensure supplies throuh physical control of forein sources of enery.

Bhis rowin confidence in the role of mar+ets has )een com)ined with an implicit reconition )y the >eiin o"ernment

that China , as a maor oil6importin state, has a num)er of conruent interests with other oil6importin states , such as the*S, the %* and <apan. China7s intense economic interdependence with the est, most nota)ly with the *S, means that thereis also considera+le cation in >eiin a)out supportin the anti6western policies of many enery6rich re"isioniststates. Bhe pu)lic pronouncements and statements issued )y the Chinese leadership see+ to reassure all eternal actors, includin those

in the est, that its enery6directed diplomacy is dri"en )y economic rather than political necessity and see+scooperation rather than confrontation(



A$ 'ai#an 6mpact – 6=L 'rn

Chinese inflence in Latin America cases 'ai#an #ar

Hergsson 1$ (1o))ie, 1esearcher at 1oyal Society for the Arts, Featured Contri)utor at &nternational >usinessBimes, Former Conference V 1esearch Assistant at Security atch, Former 1esearcher at *ni"ersity Collee0ondon, $aster of Science, China in the &nternational Arena, Bhe *ni"ersity of =lasow, “Bhe Chinese Challeneto the $onroe Moctrine,” http://www.e6ir.info/434//4/does6chinese6rowth6in6latin6america6threaten6american6interests/#Baiwan O domestic, or forein policyR China7s oals in the reion amount to more than the capture of natural resources.Althouh the ;eople7s 1epu)lic of China considers resolution of the Baiwan issue to )e a domestic issue, it is with someirony that one of China7s main forein policy oals is to isolate 'aipei internationall" . Bhe ;1C and the 1JCcompete directly for international reconition amon all the states in the world. . owhere is this more e"ident than in0atin America, where 1$ of the $5 nations that still ha"e official diplomatic relations with the 1JC reside . Bhehistorical )ac+round Followin the mainland Communist "ictory in the Chinese Ci"il ar in 3@5@, the nationalist uomintan retreated to theisland of Formosa (Baiwan# where it continued to claim to )e the leitimate o"ernment of all of China. &n <une 3@H the *nited Statesinter"ened )y placin its th fleet in the Baiwan straits to stop a conclusi"e military resolution to the ci"il war and slowly the )attlefield )ecame

primarily political, concerned with leitimacy. hen the *nited ations was formed in 3@5H, the 1epu)lic of China (1JC# )ecame one of thefi"e permanent mem)ers of the Security Council. Bhis a"e the 1JC a de facto ad"antae o"er the ;1C in attainin reconition from othernation states8 particularly as the diplomatic clout of the heemonic *nited States supported its position as the true representati"e of the Chinese

people, until the rapprochement of the 3@s, when the ion administration wished to impro"e ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to

eploit the Sino6So"iet split. * 1esolution 4H9 ranted the 7China seat7 to the ;1C at the epense of the 1JC who were in effect eiled fromthe orani?ation, and the famous 3@4 "isit of ;resident ion to China further added leitimacy to the communist reime. All this resulted in athawin of world opinion, and radually as the dura)ility and permanence of the ;1C reime )ecame inrained, countries )ean switchin theirdiplomatic reconition from Baipei to >eiin. Bhe economics of international reconition &n the Americas, the ;1C had international

reconition and lonstandin support from ideoloical allies such as Cu)a. -owe"er, the 1JC has maintained more diplomaticsupport in the Americas than any other reion, mainly due to the small nature of the states in"ol"ed and theimportance of Baiwanese aid to their economies. 0i notes that “from the late 3@9s to the early 3@@s, rouhly 3 percent ofBaiwan7s direct forein in"estment (FM&# went to 0atin America and the Cari))ean,” NH3P hihlihtin the concerted effort made in the reion.%conomic solidarity is increasinly important to the formation of the Baiwan60atin America relationship, for tworeasons. Bhe first is that for 0atin American states, the decision of which China to support is less ideoloical and

political than it e"er has )een8 which ma+es the decision a straiht up economic ?ero6sum choice. Bhe second is that0atin America is home to natural resources which are of reat sinificance to the hunry rowin economies of the;1C and the 1JC reardless of international reconition. -owe"er, while the decision is not political for 0atin American countries, forBaiwan, e"ery country which switches its reconition to the ;1C damaes its leitimacy as a nation state in the

international arena. Bhe Ba)le )elow shows the desination of diplomatic reconition in the reion in 49. Countries 1econisin the ;1C(China#Countries 1econisin the 1JC (Baiwan#Central America$eico, Costa 1ica%l Sal"ador, =uatemala, -onduras, icaraua,;anamaCari))eanAntiua V >ar)uda, >ahamas, >ar)ados, Cu)a, Mominica, =renada, =uyana, <amaica, Suriname, Brinidad V Bo)ao>eli?e,Mominican 1epu)lic, -aiti, St itts V e"is, St. 0ucia, St. Eincent V the =renadinesSouth AmericaArentina, >oli"ia, >ra?il, Chile, Colom)ia,

%cuador, ;eru, *ruuay, Eene?uela;arauay Jn the other hand, for the ;1C, e"ery state which withdraws its support for the1JC ta+es it one step closer to )ein in a position where it can resol"e the Q'ai#an isse’ nilaterall" . Su)seLuently,

underminin Baiwan is of the utmost importance to China, and it has ta+en to Qout)iddin7 Baiwan in offers offorein aid, a stratey made possi)le )y the decline in aid from the defunct So"iet *nion, and the est, which is pre occupied with terrorismand the $iddle %ast. 0i notes that “the reion7s leaders ha"e turned to Asia for help to promote trade and financial assistance, and conseLuently

played the ;1C and Baiwan aainst each other.” NHP Mespite its smaller si?e, Baiwan has fared remar+a)ly well in this )iddin war8 focusin itsaid in"estments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St itts V e"is for the Cric+et orld Cup in 4. -owe"er, e"en BaiwanQs economycan )e put under strain )y the seeminly relentless stream of forein aid which has )rouht only de)atea)le and mild ains to the Baiwanese

cause. Bhis has contri)uted to the ;1C pic+in off the few remainin supporters of the 1JC O ta+e for eample, theMominican case. &n early 45, Commonwealth of Mominica as+ed Baipei for a 2H9 million aid, which is unrelated to pu)lic welfare. BheCari))ean nation had relied on Baiwan to de"elop its ariculture6)ased economy since 3@9. Miplomatic relationship was soon )ro+en afterBaipei turned down the reLuest. NH5P Bhis incident showcased the fact that in economic terms, the ;1C is winnin the )attle for 0atin America. ;olitical strateies of the ;1C &n political terms too8 the ;1C is in an ad"antaeous position, than+s in part aain to its positionwithin the *. hile it can )e arued that China “pro"ides incenti"es )ut does not threaten harm to induce countries to defect from reconi?in

Baiwan,” NHHP the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means a"aila)le to an economic entity as powerful as China. &trefuses to maintain official relations with any state that reconises the 1JC 8 an action which can )e Luite

prohi)iti"e to the country )ein a)le to ta+e ad"antae of the rowin Chinese mar+et. Althouh Mombnue? suests thatthe ;1C “has not )een puniti"e toward those states that still reconi?e the 1epu)lic of China (Baiwan#,” NHP the leitimacy of this claim has to

)e )rouht into Luestion O for eample “in <une 3@@, China fouht the etension of the * mission in -aiti, to punish the Cari))ean nation forits appeal for * acceptance of Baiwan.” NHP Bhis incident showed that China is prepared to use its lo)al clout to play spoiler and applyindirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. Similarly, China7s eperience with one6party rule has tauht it theimportance of party6to6party relations in addition to state6to6state relations, further cementin the ;1C )y



esta)lishin a relationship )ased on oodwill and common understandin. &ndeed )y the start of 3@@9 “the CC; had esta)lishedrelations with almost all maor political parties in the countries that were Baiwan7s diplomatic allies in 0atin America,” NH9P further isolatin the1JC. Bhe effect on American interests ere the 1JC to )e deserted )y its remainin allies in 0atin America, the *S Awould )e disad"antaed in attemptin to maintain the status Luo across the Baiwan Strait . A Baiwan that was notreconised )y any state from the Americas, or %urope (with the eception of the Eatican# would not )e seen as a enuine so"erein entity whosedefence would )e more important than the up+eep of ood relations )etween China and the est. As China7s economic and political

position in the world impro"es "is66"is )oth America and Baiwan, so miht its am)itions. Bhe *.S.A miht find

itself in a position where it could no loner withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the ;1C to conclude a settlementon Baiwan, perhaps +" force.

China controllin 0atin America means they would win a war CS *








>ut it also is possi)le to support s+epticism concernin the qq)enin rise'' notion )y pointin to historical eamples in the 3@th and 4th centuries of confrontation and outriht warfare )etween reinin powers such as the *nitedStates and risin powers such as the ;1C. Bhrouh this more s+eptical lens, the ;1C presence in 0atin Americaand the Cari))ean has particularly worrisome implications. &t could help strenthen anti6democratic and anti6*.S.

political leaders and actors in some countries8 moreo"er, in the e"ent of a possi)le *.S. military conflict withChina, ;1C human and commercial infrastructure in 0atin America would )e well placed to disrupt and distractthe *nited States in the hemisphere and to collect intellience data aainst *.S. forces operatin in the reion.45

6solation ma!es conflict more li!el" – nationalism and empirics prove the" #ill see! renification – and that

dra#s in the US

Gennings 1$ (1alph O CS$, “Could Baiwan's relationship with China deteriorate after electionsR”, 434,http://www.csmonitor.com/orld/Asia6;acific/434/33/Could6Baiwan6s6relationship6with6China6deteriorate6after6elections#ashinton would welcome a continued thaw as it tries to impro"e ties with China without isolatin Baiwan. Bhe *S o"ernment is+ond +" a 1828 congressional act to support Baiwan's defense )ut wants to et alon with >eiin so it reaps the lon6term

economic and trade )enefits epected from the Chinese economy. >ut that doesn7t mean pro)lem sol"ed. China has claimed sovereignt"

o"er self6ruled Baiwan since the Chinese ci"il war of the 3@5s. &t has not renonced the threat of force to pursuereunification if peacefl means fail. Bhat stance hans o"er Bsai7s party, which has traditionally pushed for independence with China.

&n the mid63@@s chill, China test6fired missiles into waters near Baiwan after then6;resident 0ee Ben6hui ad"ocated Baiwan7s

independence. And more recently, former ;resident Chen Shui6)ian O who o"erned from 4649 and was )ac+ed at the time )y

Bsai7s party O outraed >eiin with his nsccessfl prsit of constitutional independence for Baiwan, fannin fear thatcast China as a maor election issue.

'he onl" scenario for conflict is Chinese aggression

igger 2 (Shelly O >rown Associate ;rofessor of %ast Asian ;olitics at Ma"idson Collee, an F;1& senior fellow,“hat %"ery American eeds to now a)out Baiwan”, Fe)ruary,

http://www.fpri.or/footnotes/34.4.rier.taiwan.html#&s Baiwan headed for disaster , i"en all these trends and contradictionsR Bed =alen Carpenter 7s America7s Comin ar with China: A Collision

Course o"er Baiwan (;alra"e, 4# )eins, middles, and ends with the idea that Baiwan is oin to declare independence and thatthe *.S. is oin to )e drawn into a war with China, )ecause that7s what Baiwan is oin to do. & would say that this is a completel"

#rong interpretation of the realities of Baiwan society and pu)lic opinion . &n fact, the onl" reason we mihtencounter a crisis in the Baiwan strait would )e if >eiin decided that it cold no longer #ait for the trend of economic

interation and the softenin of hostilities )uilt up as a result of ci"il war and decades of conflict to wor+ their maic. &f >eiindecides that it can7t wait for those thins and tries to compel Baiwan to accept unification )efore Baiwan is ready, then we couldha"e pro)lems. >ut the ;1C isn7t li+ely to do that )ecause of the costs to it of doin so and )ecause the trend to see+ formal independence and chane the name









of 1JC has already pea+ed. Bhe ;1C can increasinly see that on the other side of that hill, the prospects for some +ind of accommodation )etween these two sidesare actually loo+in )etter.

'ai#an isolation is more li!el" to case conflict

6!egami ($asa+o &+eami O ;rofessor and Mirector of the Center for ;acific Asia Studies (C;AS# at Stoc+holm*ni"ersity. She holds Moctor of Socioloy from *ni"ersity of Bo+yo, and a ;h.M. in peace V conflict research from*ppsala *ni"ersity, Sweden. -er research interests include Asian security V confidence )uildin, arms control V

disarmament and non6proliferation issues. 649649, Bhe <amestown Foundation, Bime for Conflict ;re"entionAcross the Baiwan Strait, http://www.amestown.or/prorams/china)rief/sinle/Rt!ttnews[H>tt!news[HM\5944Vt!ttnews[H>)ac+;id[HM\39Vno!cache\3#&ndeed, a cross6Strait conflict is potentially one of the most dangeros conflict s in"ol"in t#o ma&or nclear po#ers,in which the ris+ of escalation, in the worst case, cannot eclude strateic nuclear echane . Bhus, it is understanda)le thatmany countries ma+e such a statement of “neutrality” or remain )ystanders. Bhe location of Baiwan, howe"er, in the midst of the "ital sea lines ofcommunications (S0JCs#, any le"el of armed conflict will ine"ita)ly en"elop an international affair with lo)alconseLuences , economically, politically and militarily. >y nature, a cross6Strait conflict cannot )e a limited theatre ofwar . Bherefore, it would reatly impro"e conflict pre"ention if ABJ could at a minimum maintain its own "ersion of “strateic am)iuity” toma+e >eiin7s calculation of usin force more difficult, less optimistic, and there)y more prudent N@P. Bhe recent lare6scale na"al eerciseconducted )y the *nited States, <apanese, Australian, &ndian and Sinaporean na"ies in Septem)er 4 miht ha"e aimed at such a sinallineffect toward China. &t will also )e constructi"e if %urope, toether with other estern countries, were to ma+e >eiin understand that anyarmed attac+ on Baiwan would lead to worldwide criticism and )oycotts of Chinese products. Bo lea"e the issue to >eiin6Baipei )ilateral tal+s is not asolution either. &n the 3@@s, former Baiwanese ;resident 0ee Ben6hui secretly sent an en"oy to -on on to neotiate with >eiin on cross6Strait political issues )ut apparently failed to )rin any constructi"e outcomes and, conseLuently, 0ee resorted to declarin the contro"ersial meetin special “state6to6state relations” (>>C,

<uly 4, 4#. 0i+ely, China7s Jne6China principle and $a Gin6eou7s claim of “so"ereinty country” would hardly coalesce. =i"en the power disparity )etween>eiin and Baipei, any )ilateral tal+s on eLual terms are impossi)le and unrealistic. =i"en >eiin7s persistence on its old6fashioned so"ereinty concept and

territorial interity, any )ilateral tal+s would ine"ita)ly end up as a cruel power ame, in which the a)sorption of Baiwan would )e imminent dueto its relati"ely wea+er position. 6f %ei&ing &dges that 'ai#an is already wea+ and isolated enogh to allo# for

Chinese militar" operations, %ei&ing #old opt for the se of force to reali;e its nification aim. Bhe current co6eistence framewor+ in the cross6Strait relationship is unsustaina)le, )ecause the framewor+ lac+s a solid round in terms of international law, and is instead su)ectto the chane of "arious "aria)les such as military power parity, international political dynamics, economic merers, and domestic social6political de"elopments inChina and Baiwan. &n such unsta)le circumstances, third6party inter"ention would )e constructi"e and helpful to create a win6win situation. &n this respect, %urope,which has a rich historical eperience of transcendin national )orders throuh post6modern reional cooperation, could pro"ide much inspiration and creati"e ideasfor China and Baiwan, helpin them to find a creati"e third way6out that )oth parties can comforta)ly accept. For instance, %urope could suest to >eiin that aloose confederation or commonwealth to consolidate the current am)iuous co6eistenceIneither unification nor independenceIwould )e a feasi)le peacefulsolution accepta)le to )oth sides, as well as the international community. hen the *.S.6China co6manaement only muddles throuh the cross6Strait pro)lemwithout leadin to any fundamental solution, %urope7s rich eperiences of conflict pre"ention and manaement could )e a new su)ect worth studyin for the related parties in the Asia6;acific.

Baiwan is "ery close to lashin out when isolated )y China%lmenthal 2 (Man, Man >lumenthal is the director of Asian Studies at the American %nterprise &nstitute, where he focuses on %ast Asian security issues andSino6American relations. $r. >lumenthal has )oth ser"ed in and ad"ised the *.S. o"ernment on China issues for o"er a decade. From 43 to 45, he ser"ed assenior director for China, Baiwan, and $onolia at the Mepartment of Mefense. Additionally, he ser"ed as a commissioner on the conressionally6mandated *.S.6China %conomic and Security 1e"iew Commission since 46434, and held the position of "ice chairman in 4. -e has also ser"ed on the Academic Ad"isory>oard of the conressional *.S.6China or+in =roup. $r. >lumenthal is the co6author of YAn Aw+ward %m)race: Bhe *nited States and China in the 43st CenturyY(A%& ;ress, o"em)er 434#. Baipei Bimes8 *S policies dri"e nation's isolation, http://www.taipeitimes.com/ews/editorials/archi"es/4/3/@/455#*S policy toward Baiwan is riddled with peculiarities. Baiwan is a li )eral democracy with a prosperous, free6mar+et economy and is the "ery model of t he +ind of Yresponsi)le sta+eholderY

ashinton hopes China will )e in the future. Mespite its eclusion from donor conferences, Baipei has pro"ided material support tothe war on terrorism and reconstruction efforts in &raL and Afhanistan. &n addition, it has supported *S counter6

proliferation efforts such as the ;roliferation Security &nitiati"e. &f Baiwan is a model of freedom at home andresponsi)ility a)road, why is ashinton's attitude toward Baipei so sourR &t wasn't supposed to )e this way. B he administration of *S;resident =eore . >ush came to power determined to chane the percei"ed >eiin tilt of former *S president >ill Cli nton. >ush offered Baiwan a enerous arms pac+ae and made Baiwan a

YnormalY security partner, allowin Baipei to ma+e arms reLuests accordin to its own timeline as it souht to fill its defense needs. Bhe president said that the *S wouldYdo whate"er it ta+esY to help Baiwan defend itself. $oreo"er, after Sept. 33, 43, attac+s in the *S, >ush formulated a Yfreedom aendaY to ad"ance freedom

worldwide. &n that spirit, he has supported =eoria, *+raine and other countries formerly under So"iet control, despite 1ussian protests. =i"en the thrust of >ush's

policies, it is indeed odd that ashinton treats Baiwan as a "irtual pariah: humiliatin Baipei )y micromanaintransit stops )y its president and pu)licly warnin that Yindependence means war,Y as if any responsi)le leader inBaiwan were pushin for formal independence. Bhe *S has also denied Baiwan a Free Brade Areement, despite rantin them to less economically capa)le

countries such as $orocco, <ordan and Jman. Bhe truth is that there is practically no positi"e aenda )etween Baipei and ashinton.Bhe *S enaes in only half6hearted efforts to help Baiwan ain o)er"er status in the orld -ealth Assem)ly. &t hasdenied Baiwan reLuests for upraded F63s despite a clear need for them. Bhere has )een little effort to include Baiwan in the Yfreedom aendaY or the lo)al community of democracies that the

>ush administration has touted. &ncludin countries li+e %ypt and ecludin Baiwan from that community damaes the "ery idea it is )uilt on. Mespite a rowin need forashinton and Baipei to coordinate their military plans, the security relationship has not fared much )etter.$ilitary relations are still o"erned )y restrictions on "isits )y *S eneral officers that )ean durin theadministration of former *S president <immy Carter. Bhe defense relationship larely rests on decisions made in the late years of the Clinton administration 66

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4822&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=168&no_cache=1






when *S Mepartment of Mefense officials wo+e up to the reality of China's increased military power. ashinton's wea+ support for Baiwan will ha"eserious conseLuences, especially as >eiin acti"ely undermines Baiwan's de facto independent status. As Chinawor+s to isolate Baiwan internationally and intimidate it militarily, Baiwan's options are dwindlin. %ither it will lash out or it will

YFinlandi?e,Y that is, )ecome a China6compliant neutral power. either option ser"es *S interests. Bhe former could pro"o+e China into startin a war, whilethe latter would result in a second South orea6li+e democracy, which is no loner willin to support *S policy in Asia.

hen Baiwan feels cornered, they lashout "iolentlyDo+ell 2 (=raeme, =raeme Mo)ell is a <ournalism Fellow at the 0owy &nstitute. -e has )een reportin on Australianand international politics, forein affairs and defence, and the Asia ;acific since 3@H. -e writes Bhe Can)erraColumn for Bhe &nterpreter, the )lo of the 0owy &nstitute. =raeme was the A>C's South %ast Asia radiocorrespondent in Sinapore and did se"eral stints as the Can)erra6)ased Forein Affairs V Mefence Correspondentfor 1adio Australia from 3@9 to 49, reportin also for A>C radio news and current affairs prorams. -e left this

post in April 49 to )ecome 1adio Australia's Associate %ditor for the Asia ;acific. Startin as a newspaper ournalist in 3@3, =raeme oined the A>C in 3@H and concentrated on reportin politics and international affairs,ser"in as a correspondent in %urope, America and throuhout Asia and the ;acific. From 3@9H, =raeme focusedon reportin the affairs of the Asia ;acific, co"erin the security dialoue of the AS%A 1eional Forum, the %astAsia Summit and a do?en A;%C summits. -e wor+ed as a ournalist in the ;arliamentary ;ress =allery in Can)errain 3@9693, 3@969@ and 3@@3649. Assinments in his career as a correspondent ha"e included the Fal+landsar, coups in Fii, Bhailand and the ;hilippines, >eiin after the crushin of the pro6democracy mo"ement in

Biananmen SLuare and the return of -on on to China. -e is the author of 'Australia Finds -ome I BheChoices and Chances of an Asia ;acific <ourney', pu)lished in 4. China and Baiwan in the South ;acific:Miplomatic Chess "ersus ;acific8 CSCSM Jccasional ;aper um)er 3, $ay 4, ;olitical 1u)y,http://chl.anu.edu.au/pu)lications/csds/cscsd!op3!5!chapter!3.pdf#Bhe harsh dynamics of the diplomatic chess ame in the ;acific mean neither >eiin nor Baipei i"e much attention to any endame. >ut if >eiin e"entually out6)ids Baiwan in the ;acific, that may ma+e Baipei7s )eha"iour less predicta)le. A Baiwan that no loner has any “international space” (or perhaps, more accurately “diplomatic face”# will ha"e less to lose. &f China wereto depri"e Baiwan of its si diplomatic flas in the South ;acific, would that ma+e Baipei more amena)le to>eiinR -istory and human nature hint that states pressed too hard can sometimes lash out. ;erhaps China should consider

the potential for diplomatic "ictory producin an unfortunate political outcome O an anry or isolated Baiwan that may )e moreli+ely to )randish the independence weapon.



A4: Baiwan &mpact O &ndep =ood

'ai#an freedom is !e" to mltiple alliances, relations #ith 6ndia, and US hegemon"

'#ining 15 (Maniel O -oo"er &nstitution, “Bhe Baiwan 0inchpin”, 4/3, http://www.hoo"er.or/pu)lications/policy6re"iew/article/3@@#>ut aruments to let Baiwan o get strateg" +ac!#ards . First, cuttin off an old *.S. ally at a time of risin tensionswith an asserti"e China might do less to appease %ei&ing than to encourae its hopes to )ully the U nited S tates intoa further retreat from its commitments in %ast Asia. Second, it would transform the calculus of "ital American alliesli+e Gapan and Soth orea , who miht plausi)ly wonder whether the *.S. commitment to their security wase9all" flexi+le. Bhird, it would upend the calculations of new *.S. partners li+e &ndia and Eietnam, whose leadersha"e made a )et on *.S. stayin power and the associated +enefits of strengthening relations with America as a

hede aainst China. Fourth, such preempti"e surrender would reinforce what remains more a psycholoical than a material

reality of China emerin as a glo+al sperpo#er of America’s standing I which it is not and may ne"er )e. Finally, itwould resurrect the hosts of $unich and Galta, where reat powers decided the fate of lesser nations without reference to those nations7 interests

I or the human conseLuences of offerin them up to satisfy the appetites of predatory reat powers.

Nclear #ar

agan 2 (1o)ert, Senior Associate O Carneie %ndowment for &nternational ;eace, “%nd of Mreams, 1eturn of-istory: &nternational 1i"alry and American 0eadership”, ;olicy 1e"iew, Auust/Septem)er,

http://www.hoo"er.or/pu)lications/policyre"iew/9HH4H34.htmln3#Bhe ostlin for status and influence amon these am)itious nations and would6)e nations is a second definin feature of the new post6Cold ar international system.

ationalism in all its forms is )ac+, if it e"er went away, and so is international competition for power, influence, honor, and status. American predominance pre"ents these ri"alries from intensifyin I its reional as well as its lo)al predominance. ere the U nited States todiminish its influence in the reions where it is currently the stronest power, the other nations would settle disputes as reat and lesser

powers ha"e done in the past: sometimes throuh diplomacy and accommodation )ut often throuh confrontation and wars of "aryin scope, intensity, and

destructi"eness. Jne no"el aspect of such a multipolar world is that most of these powers would possess nclear #eapons . Bhat could ma+ewars )etween them less li+ely, or it could simply ma+e them more catastrophic. &t is easy )ut also danerous to underestimate the role the*nited States plays in pro"idin a measure of sta)ility in the world e"en as it also disrupts sta)ility. For instance, the *nited States is the dominantna"al power e"erywhere, such that other nations cannot compete with it e"en in their home waters. Bhey either happily or rudinly allow the *nited States a"y to )e the uarantor of international waterways and trade routes, of international access to mar+ets and raw materials such as oil. %"en when the *nited States enaes ina war, it is a)le to play its role as uardian of the waterways. &n a more enuinely multipolar world, howe"er, it would not. ations would compete for na"aldominance at least in their own reions and possi)ly )eyond. Conflict )etween nations would in"ol"e strules on the oceans as well as on land. Armed em)aros, ofthe +ind used in orld ar i and other maor conflicts, would disrupt trade flows in a way that is now impossi)le. Such order as eists in the world rests not only onthe oodwill of peoples )ut also on American power. Such order as eists in the world rests not merely on the oodwill of peoples )ut on a foundation pro"ided )yAmerican power. %"en the %uropean *nion, that reat eopolitical miracle, owes its foundin to American power, for without it the %uropean nations after orld

ar && would ne"er ha"e felt secure enouh to reinterate =ermany. $ost %uropeans recoil at the thouht, )ut e"en today %urope 7s sta)ility depends onthe uarantee, howe"er distant and one hopes unnecessary, that the *nited States could step in to chec+ any danerous de"elopment on the

continent. &n a enuinely multipolar world, that would not )e possi)le without renewin the daner of world war . ;eople who )elie"e reater eLuality amon nations would )e prefera)le to the present American predominance often succum) to a )asic loical fallacy. Bhey )elie"e the order theworld enoys today eists independently of American power. Bhey imaine that in a world where American power was diminished, the aspects of international orderthat they li+e would remain in place. >ut that 7s not the way it wor+s. &nternational order does not rest on ideas and institutions. &t is shaped )y confiurations of power. Bhe international order we +now today reflects the distri)ution of power in the world since orld ar ii, and especially since the end of the Cold ar. Adifferent confiuration of power, a multipolar world in which the poles were 1ussia, China, the *nited States, &ndia, and %urope, would produce its own +ind of order,with different rules and norms reflectin the interests of the powerful states that would ha"e a hand in shapin it. ould that international order )e an impro"ementR;erhaps for >eiin and $oscow it would. >ut it is dou)tful that it would suit the tastes of enlihtenment li)erals in the *nited States and %urope. Bhe current order,of course, is not only far from perfect )ut also offers no uarantee aainst maor conflict amon the world 7s reat powers. %"en under the um)rella of unipolarity,

reional conflicts in"ol"in the lare powers may erupt. ar could erupt )etween China and Baiwan and draw in )oth the *nited States and <apan.

ar could erupt )etween 1ussia and =eoria , forcin the *nited States and its %uropean allies to decide whether to inter"ene or suffer the conseLuences of a

1ussian "ictory. Conflict )etween &ndia and ;a+istan remains possi)le, as does conflict )etween &ran and &srael or other $iddle %astern states .Bhese, too, could draw in other reat powers, includin the *nited States. Such conflicts may )e una"oida)le no matter what policies the *nited

States pursues. >ut they are more li+ely to erupt if the *nited States wea+ens or withdraws from its positions of reional dominance. Bhis is especiallytrue in %ast Asia, where most nations aree that a relia)le American power has a sta)ili?in and pacific effect on the reion. Bhat is certainly the "iew of most of

China 7s neih)ors. >ut e"en China, which see+s radually to supplant the *nited States as the dominant power in the reion, faces the dilemma that an Americanwithdrawal could unleash an am)itious, independent, nationalist <apan. Conflicts are more li+ely to erupt if the *nited States withdraws from its

positions of reional dominance. &n %urope, too, the departure of the *nited States from the scene I e"en if it remained the world7s most powerful nation I

could )e desta)ili?in. &t could tempt 1ussia to an e"en more o"er)earin and potentially forceful approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Althouh some realist theorists seem to imaine that the disappearance of the So"iet *nion put an end to the possi)ility of confrontation )etween 1ussiaand the est, and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in %urope, history suests that conflicts in %urope in"ol"in 1ussia are possi)le e"en without

So"iet communism. &f the *nited States withdrew from %urope I if it adopted what some call a stratey of “offshore )alancin” I this could in time increasethe li+elihood of conflict in"ol"in 1ussia and its near neih)ors, which could in turn draw the U nited S tates )ac+ inunder unfa"ora)le circumstances.



US=6ndia relations avert Soth Asian nclear #ar

Schaffer $ (Beresita, Mir O South Asia ;roam, CS&S, ashinton Duarterly, Sprin, 0eis#

ashinton's increased interest in &ndia since the late 3@@s reflects &ndia's economic epansion and position asAsia's newest risin power. ew Melhi, for its part, is adustin to the end of the Cold ar. As a result, )oth iantdemocracies see that they can )enefit )y closer cooperation. For ashinton, the ad"antaes include a wider

networ+ of friends in Asia at a time when the reion is chanin rapidly, as well as a stroner position fromwhich to help calm possi)le future nclear tensions in the reion . %nhanced trade and in"estment )enefit )othcountries and are a prereLuisite for impro"ed *.S. relations with &ndia. For &ndia, the country's am)ition toassume a stroner leadership role in the world and to maintain an economy that lifts its people out of po"ertydepends critically on ood relations with the *nited States.

Gapan alliance solves mltiple threats --- escalates to glo+al nclear #ar(

0ates 11 (1o)ert, *.S. Secretary of Mefense, “*.S.6<apan Alliance a Cornerstone of Asian Security”, Speech toeio *ni"ersity, 3635, http://www.defense.o"/speeches/speech.aspRspeechid\3H4@#J"er the course of its history, the *.S.6<apan alliance has succeeded at its oriinal core purpose O to deter militaryaression and pro"ide an um)rella of security under which <apan O and the reion O can prosper. Boday, our alliance is

rowin deeper and )roader as we address a rane of security challenes in Asia. Some, li+e orth orea, piracy or naturaldisasters, ha"e )een around for decades, centuries, or since the )einnin of time. Jthers, such as lo)al terrorist networ+s, cy)er

attac+s, and nuclear proliferation are of a more recent "intae. hat these issues ha"e in common is that they all reLuire multiplenations wor+in toether O and they also almost always reLuire leadership and in"ol"ement )y +ey reional players such asthe *.S. and <apan. &n turn, we epress our shared "alues )y increasin our alliance7s capacity to pro"ide humanitarian aid and disaster relief, ta+e part in peace6+eepin operations, protect the lo)al commons, and promote cooperation and )uild trust throuh strenthenin reional institutions. %"eryone athered here +nows the cripplin de"astation that can )e caused )ynatural disasters O and the *.S. and <apan, alon with our partners i n the reion, reconi?e that respondin to these crises is a security imperati"e. &n recent years, *.S. and <apanese forcesdeli"ered aid to remote earthLua+e6stric+en reions on &ndonesia, and *.S. aircraft )ased in <apan helped deli"er assistance t o typhoon "ictims in >urma. e wor+ed t oether in response to the45 &ndian Jcean tsunami, earthLua+es in <a"a, Sumatra, and -aiti, and most recently followin the floods in ;a+istan. Bhese efforts ha"e demonstrated the forward deployment of *.S. forcesin <apan is of real and l ife6sa"in "alue. Bhey also pro"ide new opportu nities for the *.S. and <apanese forces to operate toether )y conductin oint eercises and missions. Furthermore, *.S.and <apanese troops ha"e )een wor+in on the lo)al stae to confront the threat of failed or failin states. <apanese peace+eepers ha"e operated around the world, includin the =olan -eihtsand %ast Bimor and assisted with the reconstruction of &raL. &n Afhanistan, <apan represents the second larest financial donor, ma+in su)stanti"e contri)utions to the international effort )yfundin the salaries of the Afhan ational ;olice and helpin the Afhan o"ernment interate former insurents. <apan and the *nited States also continue to cooperate closely to ensure themaritime commons are safe and secure for commercial traffic. Jur maritime forces wor+ hand6in6lo"e in the estern ;acific as well as in other sea passaes such as the Strait of $alacca )etween $alaysia and &ndonesia, where more than a third of the world7s oil and trade shipments pass throuh e"ery year. Around the -orn of Africa, <apan has deployed surface ships and patrolaircraft that operate alonside those from all o"er the world drawn )y the common oal to counter piracy in "ital sea lanes. ;articipatin in these acti"ities thrusts <apan7s military into a relati"elynew, and at times sensiti"e role, as an eporter of security. Bhis is a far cry from the situation of e"en two decades ao when, as & remem)er well as a senior national security official, <apan wascritici?ed for so6called “chec+)oo+ diplomacy” O sendin money )ut not troops O to help the anti6Saddam coalition durin the First =ul f ar. >y showin more willinness to send self6defenseforces a)road under international auspices O consistent with your constitution O <apan is ta+in its ri htful place alonside the world7s other reat democracies. Bhat is part of the rationale for

<apan7s )ecomin a permanent mem)er of a reformed *nited ations Security Council. And since these challenes cannot )e tac+led throuh )ilateral action alone, we must use thestron *.S.6<apanese partnership as a platform to do more to strenthen multilateral institutions O reional arranements

that must )e inclusi"e, transparent, and focused on results. <ust a few months ao, & attended the historic first meetin of the AS%A ;lus %ihtMefense $inisters $eetin in -anoi, and am encouraed )y <apan7s decision to co6chair the $ilitary $edicine or+in =roup. And as a proud;acific nation, the *nited States will ta+e o"er the chairmanship of the Asia ;acific %conomic Cooperation Forum this year, followin <apan7ssuccessful tenure. or+in throuh reional and international forums puts our alliance in the )est position to confront some of Asia7s touhestsecurity challenes. As we ha"e )een reminded once aain in recent wee+s, none has pro"ed to )e more "ein and endurin than orth orea.Mespite the hopes and )est efforts of the South orean o"ernment, the *.S. and our allies, and the international community, the character and

priorities of the orth orean reime sadly ha"e not chaned. orth orea7s a)ility to launch another con"entional round in"asion is muchderaded from e"en a decade or so ao, )ut in other respects it has rown more lethal and desta)ili?in. Boday, it is orth orea7s pursuitof nuclear weapons and proliferation of nuclear +now6how and )allistic missile eLuipment that ha"e focused our attention Ode"elopments that threaten not ust the peninsula, )ut the ;acific 1im and international sta)ility as well. &n response to a series of pro"ocations O themost recent )ein the sin+in of the Cheonan and orth orea7s lethal shellin of a South orean island O <apan has stood shoulder to shoulder with the 1epu)lic of orea and the *nited States.Jur three countries continue to deepen our ties throuh the Mefense Brilateral Bal+s O the +ind of multilateral enaement amon America7s lon6standin allies t hat the *.S. would li+e t o seestrenthened and epanded o"er time. hen and if orth orea7s )eha"ior i"es us any reasons t o )elie"e that neotiations can )e conducted producti"ely and in ood faith, we will wor+ with<apan, South orea, 1ussia, and China to resume enaement with orth orea throuh the si party tal+s. Bhe first step i n the process should )e a orth6South enaement. >ut, to )e clear, the orth must also ta+e concrete steps to honor its international o)liations and comply with *.. Security Council 1esolutions. Any proress towards diffusin the crisis on the orean ;eninsulamust include the acti"e support of the ;eople7s 1epu)lic of China O where, as you pro)a)ly +now, & ust finished an official "isit. China has )een another important player whose economicrowth has fueled the prosperity of this part of the world, )ut Luestions a)out its intentions and opaLue military moderni?ation proram ha"e )een a source of concern to its neih)ors. Duestionsa)out China7s rowin role in th e reion manifest themsel"es in territorial disputes O most recently in the incident in Septem)er near the Sen+a+u &slands, an incident that ser"ed as a reminder of

the important of America7s and <apan7s treaty o)liations to one another. Bhe *.S. position on maritime security remains clear: we ha"e a national interest in freedom of na"iation8 inunimpeded economic de"elopment and commerce8 and in respect for international law. e also )elie"e that customary international law, as reflected in the * Con"ention on the 0aw of theSea, pro"ides clear uidance on the appropriate use of the maritime domain, and rihts of access to it. onetheless, & disaree with those who portray China as an ine"ita)le st rateic ad"ersary ofthe *nited States. e welcome a China that pl ays a constructi"e role on the world stae. &n fact, the oal of my "isit was to impro"e our military6to6military relationship and outline areas ofcommon interest. &t is precisely )ecause we ha"e Luestions a)out China7s military O ust as they miht ha"e similar Luestions a)out the *nited States O t hat & )elie"e a healthy dialoue i s needed.0ast fall, ;resident J)ama and ;resident -u <in Bao made a commitment to ad"ance sustained and relia)le defense ties, not a relationship repeatedly interrupted )y and su)ect to the "aaries of political weather. Jn a personal note, one of the thins & learned from my eperience dealin with the So"iet *nion durin my earlier time in o"ernment was the importance of maintainin astrateic dialoue and open lines of communication. %"en if specific areements did not result O on nuclear weapons or anythin else O this dialoue helped us understand each other )etter andlessen the odds of misunderstandin and miscalculation. Bhe Cold ar is mercifully lon o"er and the circumstances with China today are "astl y different O )ut the importance of maintainindialoue is as important today. For the last few minutes &7"e discussed some of the most pressin security challenes O alon with the most fruitful areas of reional cooperation O facin the *.S.and <apan in Asia. Bhis en"ironment O in terms of threats and opp ortunities O is mar+edly different than the conditions that led to the forin of the *.S6<apan defense partnership in the contetof a ri"alry )etween two lo)al sup erpowers. >ut on account of the scope, compleity and lethality of these challenes, & would arue that our alliance is more necessary, more rele"ant, and moreimportant than e"er. And maintainin the "itality and credi)ility of the alli ance reLuires moderni?in our force posture and other defense arranements to )etter reflect the threats and militaryreLuirements of this century. For eample, orth orea7s )allistic missiles O alon with t he proliferation of these weapons to other countries O reLuire a more effecti"e alliance missile defensecapa)ility. Bhe *.S.6<apan partnership in missile defense is already one of the most ad"anced of its +ind in the world. &t was American and <apanese A%=&S ships that toether monitored the orth orean missile launches of 4 and 49. Bhis partnership Owhich relies on mutual support, cuttin ede technoloy, and information sharin O in many ways reflect our alliance at its

http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1529

http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1529



)est. Bhe *.S. and <apan ha"e nearly completed the oint de"elopment of a new ad"anced interceptor, a system that represents a Lualitati"e impro"ement in our a)ility to thwart any orthorean missile attac+. Bhe co6location of our air6 and missile6defense commands at Go+ota O and the associated opportunities for information sharin, oint trainin, and coordination in thi s area O pro"ide enormous "alue to )oth countries. As & alluded to earlier, ad"ances )y the Chinese military in cy)er and anti6satellite warfare pose a potential challene to the a)ility of our forces tooperate and communicate in this part of the ;acific. Cy)er attac+s can also come from any direction and from a "ariety of sources O state, non6state, or a com)ination thereof O in ways that couldinflict enormous damae to ad"anced, networ+ed militaries and societies. Fortunately, the *.S. and <apan maintain a Luali tati"e ede in satellite and computer technoloy O an ad"antae we are puttin to ood use in de"elopin ways to counter threats to the cy)er and space domains. <ust last month, the =o"ernment of <apan too+ another step forward in the e"olution of the alliance )yreleasin its ational Mefense ;roram =uidelines O a d ocument that lays out a "isi on for <apan7s defense posture. Bhese uidelines en"isio n: A more mo)ile and deploya)le force structure8%nhanced &ntellience, Sur"eillance, and 1econnaissance capa)ilities8 and A shift in focus to <apan7s southwest islands. Bhese new uidelines pro"ide an opportunity for e"en deeper cooperation )etween our two countries O and the emphasis on your southwestern islands underscores the importance of our alliance7s force posture. And this is a +ey point. >ecause e"en as the alliancecontinues to e"ol"e O in stratey, posture, and military capa)ilities O to deal with this century7s security challenes, a critical component will remain the forward presence of *.S. military forces

in <apan. ithout such a presence: orth orea7s military pro"ocations could )e e"en more outraeous 66 or worse 8

China miht )eha"e more asserti"ely towards its neih)ors8 &t would ta+e loner to e"acuate ci"ilians affected )y conflict ornatural disasters in the reion8 &t would )e more difficult and costly to conduct ro)ust oint eercises O such as the recent een Sword eercise Othat hone the *.S. and <apanese militaries a)ility to operate and, if necessary, fiht toether8 and ithout the forward presence of *.S. forces in

<apan, there would )e less info rmation sharin and coordination, and we would +now less a)out reional threats andthe military capa)ilities of our potential ad"ersaries.



A$ 'ai#an 6mpact- Defense

Alt case- Africa

%roo!es and Shin J (;eter, Mirector of the Asian Studies Center O -eritae, and <i -ye, 1esearch Assistant in theAsian Studies Center O -eritae, “China's &nfluence in Africa: &mplications for the *nited States,” Bhe -eritaeFoundation, 4644, http://www.heritae.or/research/reports/4/4/chinas6influence6in6africa6implications6for6the6united6states#Another sinificant Chinese o)ecti"e in Africa is to isolate Baiwan diplomatically in an effort to pressure Baipeitoward unification. Se"en African countries6>ur+ina Faso, Chad, =am)ia, $alawi, Sao Bome and ;rincipe,Seneal, and Swa?iland6currently maintain official diplomatic relations with Baiwan. Curtailin Baiwan's diplomaticinfluence was not a hih priority on China's Africa policy aenda until the early 3@@s, when the competition

)etween China and Baiwan to win diplomatic reconition from indi"idual African countries escalated drastically. ow, throuh offers of massi"e economic assistance, >eiin has secured reconition from si additional Africancountries at Baiwan's epense. 0esotho and ier switched their diplomatic reconition to the ;1C in 3@@5 and3@@, respecti"ely. Bhe Central African 1epu)lic, =uinea6>issau, and South Africa switched their reconition fromBaipei to >eiin in 3@@9, and 0i)eria switched reconition to >eiin in 4 shortly )efore China dispatched ;0Atroops to assist with 0i)erian water6supply proects. &n addition to onoin efforts to se"er Baiwan's few remaininconnections in Africa, China has also souht repeatedly to maintain the support of its African partners for its YoneChinaY policy "ia diplomatic attention, economic in"estment, and other assistance.

China doesn’t need to expand inflence – UN veto po#er is sfficient to pressre contries

-e Li is ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee in orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. 0i has pu)lisheddo?ens of articles in ournals such as <ournal of Strateic Studies, ;ro)lems of ;ost6Communism, Bhe -istorian,;olicy Studies <ournal, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science, Asian ;erspecti"e, American <ournal of ChineseStudies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo+s. Bhis study is supported )y a Ful)riht scholarship and afaculty de"elopment rant from $errimac+ Collee, 3636$** N“1i"alry )etween Baiwan and the ;1C in 0atinAmerica”, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science8 Sep4H, Eol. 3 &ssue 4, p,http://lin+.spriner.com/content/pdf/3.3/>[email protected], s)haP

A "eto power at the * Security Council pro"ides China with a "ery powerful weapon to reward or punish itsfriends and foes. 4 Since China was seated in the *nited ations in 3@3, it has rarely us ed its "eto power. Get, it

is not hesitant to use its "eto if crossed o"er the matter of Baiwan. &n <une 3@@, China fouht the etension of the* mission in -aiti, to punish the Cari))ean nation for its appeal for * acceptance of Baiwan. Mespite a peacetreaty sinalin the end of =uatemala's lon6runnin uerrilla war, China stalled a <anuary 3@@ * motion toappro"e 3HH peace+eepers to o"ersee disarmament )ecause of =uatemala's ties with Baiwan. Bhis was only the third"eto >eiin has used since it reentered the * in the early 3@s. &n the words of Shen =uofan, then ChineseForein $inistry spo+esperson, Y=uatemala's ties with Baiwan had destroyed any )asis for cooperation from >eiinin the *nited ations.Y 45 &n contrast, then ;resident 0ee Ben6hui "owed that Baiwan would Ydo whate"er it canYto help its Central American ally. 4H China let it pass after etractin a compromise from =uatemala that it would noloner support Baipei7s * mem)ership )id. 4 China's "eto power as a permanent mem)er of the * SecurityCouncil ena)les it to eert pressure )ecause -aiti's internal insta)ility ma+es it dependent on peace+eepin troops.&ndeed, it is this trump card the ;1C holds that means that Baiwan is larely una)le to secure reconition fromeconomically functionin nations. ot many countries in the reion wish to )e the first to defy China and ris+ thealmost certain economic and political retri)ution that miht follow.

'ai#an-China relations higher than ever

Cole 1$ 66 Baipei6)ased ournalist who focuses on military issues in ortheast Asia and in the Baiwan Strait (<.$ichael, @/, YBaiwan -edes its >ets on China,Y http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints6)lo/434/@//taiwan6hedes6its6)ets6aainst6china/#

%" a nm+er of "ardstic!s , relations in the Baiwan Strait today are the )est they7"e )een in years, if not ever . >ut ifa report released )y Baiwan7s $inistry of ational Mefense ($M# on Friday is any indication, Baiwanese o"ernment officials don7t appear to

)e con"inced that such dtente will last for "ery lon. ithout dou)t, the pace of normali?ation in relations )etween Baiwan and



China, especially at the economic le"el, has accelerated dramaticall" since $a Gin6eou of the Chinese ationalist ;arty ($B#

was elected in 49, a process that is epected to continue with $a securin a second four6year term in <anuary. &n addition to the landmar+%conomic Cooperation Framewor+ Areement (%CFA# sined in <une 43, the o"ernments on )oth sides ha"e in+ed at least 3 areementstouchin on "arious aspects of cross6strait relations, includin an areement reached on Friday that will allow )an+s in Baiwan to clear renmin)itransactions, a mo"e that o)"iates the need for con"ertin the currency into *.S. dollars )efore a transaction can )e made. >eyond trade, "isitsto Baiwan )y Chinese officials ha"e )ecome almost routine, a limited num)er of Chinese can now study at Baiwan7suni"ersities, Chinese tourism to the island has )oomed, and oint eercises )y the countries7 respecti"e coast uards

are now held e"ery other year since 43, mostly for the purpose of sea6rescue operations in the waters off Baiwan7s inmen and China7sWiamen.

No militar" invasion to regain 'ai#an - -the"?ll se other methods

Hischer 11=$2 66 clean enery entrepreneur and is the founder and C%J of 0umicity 0td (Bristan, 434, Y hyChina could in"ade Baiwan O and et away with it,Y http://www.historyfuturenow.com/wp/why6china6could6in"ade6taiwan6and6et6away6with6it/#

Bhe ; eople7s 1 epu)lic of C hina has )een "ery patient with Baiwan. &t +nows that time is on its side . -owe"er, it could

also force the issue within the net few years and force Baiwan to reoin mainland China under the authority of the ;1C. &tcould show Baiwan a stic+ and a carrot. Bhe stic+ is that mainland China will in"ade to reesta)lish control o"er Baiwan.

>oth the Baiwanese o"ernment and the mainland Chinese o"ernment say that they are not separate nations, )ut one, withdifferent o"ernments. 'he US #old not enter into a 3civil #ar4 #ith the t#o Chinas. &n addition, )earin in mind

that the *S has a hue trade deficit with )oth China and Baiwan and that the Baiwan Straits are effecti"ely already off limits to

the *S a"y, it is hard to see the *S defendin Baiwan, even if it cold afford to do so, #hich it cannot, or #ere

a+le to do so, #hich it cold not. As a carrot, the mainland Chinese mar+et has )ecome increasinly attracti"e toBaiwanese )usinesses. Bhe ;1C could offer increased incenti"es, such as low cost loans from the ;1C, to Baiwanesecompanies, and )etter mar+et access ma+in the )usiness classes increasinly open to reunification with mainlandChina.

>on’t happen – no political #ill for independence in 'ai#an

1o)ert S. oss is one of the foremost American specialists on Chinese forein and defense policy and *.S.6Chinarelations. -e is a professor of political science at >oston Collee, associate of the Fair)an+ Center for ChineseStudies at -ar"ard *ni"ersity, senior ad"isor of the security studies proram at the $assachusetts &nstitute ofBechnoloy, and a mem)er of the Council on Forein 1elations, $**J N“Baiwan's fadin &ndependence $o"ement”,

Forein Affairs, Eol. 9H, o. 4 ($ar. 6 Apr., 4#, pp. 3536359, http://www.stor.or/sta)le/43@3,s)haPkk%rrors that appear in the document occur )ecause of the ;MF Formattin

1%A&= *; &S -A1M BJ MJ BA&A S-A1%S a culture, lanuae, and heritae with mainland China. >utafter Baiwan's half century of autonomy, economic proress, and democrati?ation, and the resultin contrast

)etween Baiwan and authoritarian China, many on the island ha"e de"eloped a stron sense of YBaiwan identity,Yand they )elie"e that Baiwan now merits international reconition as a so"erein country. >y the mid6@os, theYBaiwan identityY mo"ement had )ecome a maor force in Baiwanese politics. >ut it has not resulted in widespreadcalls for a formal declaration of independence. Eoters, reflectin >eiin's military and economic hold on the island,ha"e preferred to accommodate China's opposition to Baiwan's independence. >y 4, than+s to its acceleratedmissile and aircraft deployments, >eiin had de"eloped the capa)ility to destroy Baiwan's prosper ity )efore the*nited States would ha"e time to inter"ene. %Lually mportant, the rapid rowth of China's economy has i"en>eiin le"erae o"er Baiwan's economy. &n 4ool, the mainland )ecame Ba'iwan's most important eport mar+et (in

4H, it )ouht appro imatelG 5 percent of Baiwan's eports#, and since 44, more than half of Baiwan's foreinin"estment has one there. ithout firin a shot, therefore, China could cause chaos in Baiwan. As a result of suchfactors, Chen and other politicians who support independence do not command much support amon Baiwan's"oters. For a decade, opinion polls ha"e consistently reported that approimately @ percent of the electorateopposes immediately declarin independence. &ndeed, Chen's political success reflects electoral a)errations ratherthan the popularity of his policy toward the mainland. -e won the presidency in4o with @ percent of the "oteonly )ecause the opposition split )etween his two com petitors. Althouh he won a maority in 45, it was the onlytime his party has done so since the country )ean holdin presidential elections in 3@@. And in 45, Chen won )yonly a o.i percent marin6after an alleed assassination attempt on Chen and his unnin mate the day )efore the"ote. Mespite the widespread )e lief that Baiwan has an identity separate from China's, "oters ha"e consistently

http://www.jstor.org/stable/20031917

http://www.jstor.org/stable/20031917



)ac+ed the so6called mainlander parties, includin the uomintan ($B#, which was lon associated with "iolentrepression of the democracy mo"ement. Bhe $B attracted popular support e"en when it was led )y a lac+luster

presidential candidate and was infamous for its corruption. Mespite his shallow support and the mainland's rowina)ility to desta)ili?e Baiwan, Chen has continued to ris+ war )y pushin for independence. &n the run6up to theleislati"e elections of Mecem)er 45, for eample, he and his supporters repeatedly indicated that they miht see+to adopt a new constitution that would reflect what he called Baiwan's Ypresent realities,Y perhaps )y chanin thecountry's formal name from Ythe 1epu)lic of ChinaY to Ythe 1epu)lic of BaiwanY or )y renouncin Baipei's formalterritorial claims to the mainland. >eiin has lon maintained that it would consider such chanes acts of war. >utChen and his supporters dismissed such threats as empty tal+, aruin that China's domestic pro)lems (such as hihunemploy ment, rural insta)ility, and the reime's declinin leitimacy#, com)ined with the *.S. commitment todefend Baiwan, had reduced China to a Ypaper tier.Y >eiin responded to Chen's pro"ocations )y escalatin itsthreats to use force, promptin the >ush administration to step in and discourae Baipei from such mo"es. ;resident=eore . >ush e"en pu)licly critici?ed Chen and affirmed his opposition to Baiwanese independence in a oint

press conference with China's president, -u <intao, in o"em)er 45. Bhe M;; lost the elections, frustratinChen's plan to amend the constitution.

Economic development is irrelevant – it’s a diplomatic competition, not trade-+ased

-e Li is ;rofessor of ;olitical Science at $errimac+ Collee in orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. 0i has pu)lisheddo?ens of articles in ournals such as <ournal of Strateic Studies, ;ro)lems of ;ost6Communism, Bhe -istorian,

;olicy Studies <ournal, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science, Asian ;erspecti"e, American <ournal of ChineseStudies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo+s. Bhis study is supported )y a Ful)riht scholarship and afaculty de"elopment rant from $errimac+ Collee, 3636$** N“1i"alry )etween Baiwan and the ;1C in 0atinAmerica”, <ournal of Chinese ;olitical Science8 Sep4H, Eol. 3 &ssue 4, p,http://lin+.spriner.com/content/pdf/3.3/>[email protected], s)haP

0o))yin 0atin American support at the *nited ations is of crucial importance for )oth >eiin and Baipei. hilemany of Baiwan7s diplomatic allies may not ha"e much )ilateral state )usiness to do with mainland China, they ha"e

)ecome increasinly in"ol"ed in the * system in terms of their economic and security interests. Some CentralAmerican and the Cari))ean nations that ha"e diplomatic relations with Baiwan are amon the stalwart )ac+ers ofBaiwan7s * mem)ership )id. &n spite of stron opposition from >eiin, Baipei has manaed to arner support toraise that issue at the * since the early 3@@s. Jn Auust , 3@@, >eli?e, Costa 1ica, %l Sal"ador, =uatemala,

-onduras, icaraua, and ;anama ointly reLuested that the * =eneral Assem)ly include a new aenda itementitled “consideration of eceptional situation of the 1epu)lic of China in Baiwan in the international contet, )ased on the principle of uni"ersality.” 4 &n 45, Baiwan launched its twelfth )id to enter the *nited ations, withfifteen allies presentin a case which for the first time refers to current hih tensions with China, aruin they will

)e alle"iated if the island oins the world )ody. Four of these fifteen allies are from Central America and theCari))ean. Since the late 3@9s, China has adopted a cautious and conser"ati"e attitude toward * peace+eepinoperations. 49 >eiin has tried to )olster its imae as a responsi)le )i power. For that reason, >eiin has )eenmore careful to use the "eto power e"en if Baiwan issue is in"ol"ed in the case. For instance, in Fe)ruary 45,China "oted for (not aainst# the * resolution of deployment of a multinational force in -aiti to restore law andorder in the Cari))ean country thouh -aiti maintains diplomatic ties with Baipei. &n Septem)er 45, Chinadispatched a 36 man “special police” unit to -aiti to )e part of a * peace+eepin unit. &t is the first deploymentof Chinese forces to the estern -emisphere. Bhat shows that China7s eaerness and capacity to play anincreasinly important role in the estern -emisphere. &n addition, China has participated in reional aencies of

the *nited ations, such as * %conomic Commission for 0atin America and the Cari))ean (%C0AC# since the;1C returned to * in the early 3@s. 1eional Jrani?ations $eanwhile, Baiwan and the ;1C ha"e intensifiedtheir competition in reional international orani?ations in 0atin America and the Cari))ean. China is pushin forreional political and economic roupin it miht play a +ey role. >eiin was attracted )y the &nter6AmericanMe"elopment >an+ (&M># in an effort to accelerate economic relation with 0atin American countries. &n Septem)er3@@, China officially applied to oin the &M>. China was willin to allow the model for dual participation on the&nternational Jlympic Committee (&JC# and the Asian Me"elopment >an+ (AM>#, which disallowed the use thename of the 1epu)lic of China. &n <une 3@@5, China )ecame the first Asian country to )e an o)ser"er to the 0atinAmerican &nteration Association. &n $ay 3@@, China was admitted into the 1&EA01G >%B%% BA&AAM B-% ;1C & 0AB& A$%1&CA 9 Cari))ean Me"elopment >an+. Since the late 3@@s, >eiin has )een



interested in the %ast Asia60atin American Forum. &n $arch 43, then Forein $inister Ban <iauan attended thefirst forein ministers meetin of the %ast Asia60atin American Forum held in Santiao, Chile. &n spite of >eiin7sstron opposition for Baiwan to oin international orani?ations, Baiwan has steadily )een ainin internationalreconition as an economic entity. &t participated alonside -on on and >eiin in the Asia6;acific %conomicCooperation (A;%C# conference held in Seoul in 3@@3 and ained official mem)ership in the forum under the name“Chinese Baipei.” &n 4, the 1JC )ecame an official o)ser"er of the System for &nteration of Central America(S&CA#, the first from outside of the estern -emisphere. $oreo"er, Baiwan has esta)lished formal wor+inrelations with the &M> and the Central American >an+ for 1econstruction and Me"elopment as well. &n eneral, )othBaipei and >eiin ha"e attempted to shore up their influence in 0atin America throuh more extensive contacts .Bhis in"ol"ed not only the traditional methods of la"ish entertainment for "isitin 0atin American leaders, )ut alsoincreased their echanes with representati"es of political parties, la)or roups, women7s orani?ations, and militaryofficials. Bhese echanes, also +nown as “"isit diplomacy,” cost them comparativel" little in monetar" terms

)ut were useful in )uildin a )roader )ase of political influence.

china generic - ddi 2013

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