china is building a market for electric vehicles
TRANSCRIPT
China Building a Market for Electric Vehicles –What are the Hot Prospects?
China to be One of the Hot Regions to Adopt Electric Vehicles
Anjan Hemanth Kumar, Team Leader
Automotive & Transportation
29th November 2012
© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
Today’s Presenters
5 years of automotive research and consulting
Anjan Hemanth Kumar
Team Leader
Jason Huang
Research Manager
2
5 years of automotive research and consulting
experience, with a focus on hybrid and electric
vehicles. Authored/co-authored more than 20
industry reports and worked on over 15 opportunity
assessment and strategy formulation engagements
with Global clients. Specific expertise in:
• Electric Vehicles market forecasting and models
• Batteries and electric motor technologies for
hybrid and electric vehicles
• New market entry and diversification strategies
• New business model analysis and evaluation
5.5 years of strategy consulting experience, more than
40 significant strategy design & implementation
projects. Particular expertise in:
• Value creation strategy: Product Portfolio Review,
Market Entry & Geographical Expansion, New
Business Models, Strategic Planning
• Operational strategy: New Product Development,
New Product Launch, Business Modeling &
Planning
Agenda
Key Findings and Market Overview
Influence of Chinese Government on Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicle Market Trends and Forecasts
3
Overview of Charging Station Infrastructure
Electric Vehicle Powertrain Analysis
Key Findings of the StudyThe highest government subsidy (up to $9,500) along with other supporting policies, as well as 18-25% lower manufacturing cost in China are expected to drive the market for Electric Vehicles.
Chinese Electric Vehicle Market: Chinese Electric Vehicle market of 5,512 units in 2011 is expected to grow to 1.06 million units by 2020 accounting for up to 3.4% of annual vehicle sales.
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Low Manufacturing Cost: Manufacturing electric vehicles in China can be 18-25% cheaper than EU, NA due to the low labor, manufacturing and material costs.
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3
EV Availability: More than 75 electric vehicle models can be expected by 35 vehicle manufacturers by 2020.
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Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Government role and support: China has the highest direct cash incentive of up to $9,500 for a purchase of EV, more than North American incentive of $7,500 and European average of $6,180.
Charging Station Infrastructure: China has more than 10,000 AC charging spots established in the 25 pilot cities and about 10 battery swap stations.
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Technology:. More than 8 battery manufacturers and 10 electric motor/inverter suppliers are expected to compete in Electric Vehicle Market post 2020.
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Chinese Electric Vehicle Market OverviewChinese manufacturers are likely to dominate the EV market with 58% of market share by 2020 driven by low production, labor and raw material cost.
Electric Vehicle Market: EV Unit Shipment Sales,
China, 2011, 2016 and 2020
900,000
1,200,0000.0% 1.0% 3.4%
Electric Vehicle Market Breakdown by Segment,
China, 2020
A Basic, 12.0%
B Subcompact,
10.3%C Compact, 35
D/E -Midsize, 9.9
%
SUV/MPV, 3.2%
Unknown, 29.1%
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Electric Vehicle Market: Key Suppliers of battery packs
and electric motors, China, 2011
Powertrain Manufacturer
Battery PacksWanxiang, Lishen, BYD, ANX, A123 System, LG Chem, MGL, Skyenergy, etc
Electric MotorsJing-Jin, Dajun,Shanghai
Edrive,Wanxiang, etc
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
0
300,000
600,000
2011 2016 2020
CEV PHEV Others
Compact, 35.5%%
Influence of Chinese Government on EV Chinese government will invest about $16 billion (100 billion RMB) from 2012 to 2020 to sponsor R&D, develop battery and electric motor technology and gradually industrialize the new energy cars in China.
Electric Vehicle Market: Cities Offering Financial Subsidies (China), 2012
Beijing
Changchun
Dalian
Jinan
Tianjin
TangshanShenyang
HuhehaoteR&D andIndustrialization
$ 7.93 billion
Government Investment in Electric Vehicle Industry, (China), 2011-2020
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• 11 of the first series of 13 cities are provincial capitals, except Dalian and Shenzhen.
Source: Ministry of Finance People’s Republic of China
Shanghai
ChongqingHangzhou
Jinan
Wuhan
Shenzhen
Hefei
Changsha
Kunming
Nanchang
Haikou
Xiamen
Suzhou
Guangzhou
Zhengzhou
Chengdu
Nantong
Xiangfan
First Series of 13 Cities (2009) ->Second Series of 7 Cities (2010) ->Third Series of 5 Cities (2011) ->
$ 4.76 billion
$ 3.17 billion
Vehicle components development
Promoting and Demonstration
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Un
its
Electric Vehicle Market—Unit Shipment Scenario AnalysisThe Chinese market for electric vehicle sales is expected to grow to 1.06 million vehicles by 2020 accounting for 3.4% of total vehicle sales.
Electric Vehicle Market: Unit Shipment Sales Scenario Analysis, China, 2009-2020
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Optimistic Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Conservative Scenario
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Chinese Manufacturers to Account for 58 Percent of Electric Vehicle Market Share in China by 2020BYD and Volkswagen are Projected to be the Biggest Players of the Market
Chinese
Share of Sales in Electric Vehicle Market, (China), 2020
Others
Others
Ford
Honda
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Chinese Vehicle
Manufactures, 58%
International Vehicle
Manufacturers, 6%
Joint Ventures, 36%
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Zoyte
Great Wall,
Geely,
JAC
Chana
FAW
Chery
BYD
GM
Toyota
Renault Nissan
Daimler
Volkswagen
Note: EV = Electric Vehicle; All figures are rounded.
Charging Facilities in ChinaThree type of Charging facilities are being built in China. A Charging station would have many rapid charging points which will operate similar to a gas filling station.
Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Type of Charging Facilities, China, 2012
Charging Facilities
Charge Spot Charging Station Battery Swap Station
Item Specifications
Coupler IEC/GB
Type Area (m/sq)
Charger spec. Power capacity (kVA)
Item Specifications
Area ~1500 m/sq.
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Coupler IEC/GB
Access/Billing RFID/IC Card
Power 220V
Output Single phase. 220V, ~32A
Installation Vertical Wall mount
Communicationinterface
RS485/2G/3G
Elevation <2000m
(kVA)
Large (>4 charge spots)
1,50-2,000 DC (large)
500V,400A
DC (medium)500V, 200A
DC (small) 350V, 100A
>500
Medium (4charge spots)
500-1,000
100-500
Small (2-3 charge spots)
50-100 <100
Area ~1500 m/sq.
No. of chargers 180
No. of swap devices 2
No. of service for automobiles
30
Power supply ~3,000 kVA
No. of battery packs 180
No. of battery pack racks
2
Swapping time 10-15 minutes
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
China Europe North America
Defined as • Charge spot, Charging station and Battery switch station
• Mode 1,2,3 and DC charging
• Level 1, Level 2 and DC Charging
AC Charging Standard GB/T 18487 : Part 2 IEC 62196 – 2 SAE J1772
DC Charging Standard GB/T : Part 3 Chademo (widely utilized not bot a standard)
Chademo
Government Incentives
• The Beijing and Shanghai government are planning to offer
• Government incentives vary country wise
• Tax credit of >$1,000 to install a residential charging station
Charging Station Infrastructure Comparative AnalysisChina is expected to lead in terms of Charging infrastructure with government plans of setting up 4000 charging facilities by 2016.
Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure : Comparative Analysis, China, Europe and North America, 2012
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Incentives government are planning to offer up to 30% and 20% of the total cost respectively as subsidies to infrastructure builders
country wise a residential charging station
Business Model • Pay-as-you-go (charging station and battery swap station)
• Subscription based
• Pay-as-you-go• Subscription
• Pay-as-you-go• Subscription• Revenue sharing
Key Participants • Better Place, China Southern Power Grid, State Grid Corporation etc.
• ABB, Chargemaster, EDF Elektromotive, ENEL, RWE etc.
• Aerovironment, Coulomb Technologies, Delphi, DBT Ecotality etc.
Planned/Estimated Charging Facility(2016)
• ~4,000 Charging Facilities**
Planned
• ~300,000 Charging points
Estimated
• ~350,000 Charging points
Estimated
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis**Charging facility can contain many charging points ranging from hundreds to a thousand
Who Supplies Whom Analysis BYD produces both battery system and electric motor system in-house, while other manufacturers cooperates with multiple suppliers for battery and electric motor systems.
VMs
Battery System Electric Motor System
Battery Cell BMS Battery Pack Electric Motor Motor Control Unit
BYD BYD BYD BYD BYD BYD
Chery Wanxiang EV Wanxiang EV Wanxiang EVShanghai Edrive,
Shanghai Edrive
Electric Vehicle Market: Who-Supplies-Whom Analysis, China, 2012
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Chery Wanxiang EV Wanxiang EV Wanxiang EVShanghai Edrive,
AnandaShanghai Edrive
DongfengAESC, NEC, Wanxiang EV.
Skyenergy
AESC, NEC, Wanxiang EV,
Skyenergy
AESC, NEC, Wanxiang
EV,Skyenergy
Nissan, XiangfanSpecial Electrical
Machinery
Nissan, Wanxiang EV
FAW Wanxiang EV Wanxiang EVWanxiang
EV,ChunlanWanxiang EV, JJE Wanxiang EV
SAICShanghai Jiexin,A123Systems
Shanghai Jiexin, A123Systems
Shanghai Jiexin, A123Systems
Bosch, Shanghai Dajun
Bosch, Shanghai Dajun
Geely A123 Systems A123 SystemsA123 Systems,
Positive
Lynx Motors, Shanghai Edrive,
JJE
Lynx Motors, Shanghai Edrive
Source: Frost & SullivanImage Source: Google
Key Conclusions and Future OutlookOpportunity for global suppliers to invest in Chinese EV powertrain manufacturing and VMs to establish vehicle production facilities.
Opportunity for businesses to invest in battery swap station as China is the only country exclusively developing the switch stations.
GovernmentWorld's highest direct cash
incentive of $9,500 with additional exemption from annual taxes
So What ?So What ?
InfrastructureUtilities have been supporting
battery swap stations but VMs are not in favour at present
Early market entrant will get the first mover advantage and utilize government subsidy.
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stations.
Opportunity for global suppliers to invest in Chinese EV powertrain manufacturing and for VMs to establish vehicle production facilities. Potential for huge margins.
Joint VenturesJVs between foreign and Chinese VMs is expected to take up 36%
market share
Raw Materials and Supply Chain
EV Battery and motor raw materials are abundant and cheaper by 30%
Foreign VMs should leverage domestic VMs good supply chain, dealership, distribution network and understanding of the local market.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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For Additional Information
Katja Feick
Corporate Communications
Automotive & Transportation Europe
+49 (0) 69 7703343
Anjan Hemanth Kumar
Team Leader
Automotive & Transportation
+91 80 6702 8035
15
Jason Huang
Research Manager
Automotive & Transportation, China Operations
+86 21 5407 5780
Sarwant Singh
Partner
Automotive & Transportation
+44 207 915 7843