china marks milestone with yuan’s entry into imf reserve basket
TRANSCRIPT
China Marks Milestone With Yuan’s Entry Into IMF Reserve Basket
Meihan (Dawn) Zhao & Yuan (Doris) Xu
16/10/28
Fresh Highs Against Euro & Yuan
1ECB announced to extend its bond purchases
2Expectation for a rise in USD
QE in Europe
Sep 2015 appreciation: The FED did not raise interest rates.End of Oct, 2015: The FED announced to extend liquidity supply.
Discussion
What Influences Forex Rate?
Theory of International Indebtedness
Theory of Purchasing Power Parity
Monetary Approach
Fresh Highs Against Yuan
The existing depreciation pressure• Trade & Monetary policy
Depreciation anticipation•70% chance that US federal reserve will raise rates in Dec
Trigger•Entry of IMF Reserve Basket
Fresh Highs Against Yuan
Yuan’s Entry into IMF Reserve Basket
On Oct 1, the Chinese currency was added to the IMF's SDR
basket, joining the dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound.
an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969
March 2016, 204.1 billion SDRs (≈ $285 billion)
SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies.
a basket of five major currencies—the U.S. dollar, euro, the
Chinese renminbi (RMB), the Japanese yen, and pound
sterling—as of October 1, 2016.
Special Drawing Right SDR
1
The currency must be freely usable 2
Two Criteria Determine Whether A Currency Can Be Part of The SDR
Its issuing country must be a major exporter
✔️ Over the past five years, China’s exports averaged 11% of the global total.
❌ fully convertible ✔️ widely used in international transactions ✔️ widely traded in global markets
China will use this opportunity to further deepen economic reforms and open up the sector to promote global growth.
The move is largely symbolic and will have minimal impact on foreign demand for yuan assets, offering little support for the currency.
What do you think?
Point of Views
Let’s start!
The affirmativeYuan’s Entry into SDR does more good than harm to China.
The negativeYuan’s Entry into SDR does more harm than good to China.
Rules• Each team consists of 4 speakers • Preparation 5 min• Speech 3+2+2 min each team• Free debate 4 min in all• Questions 4 min in all• Conclusion 3 min each team
The Debate
It’s an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system.
The inclusion and the internationalization of the Chinese currency will take reforms on the mainland to a higher level.
The yuan will be increasingly used in international trade as the currency for settlement.
Benefit export-oriented enterprise
Convenience of travelling abroad
…………
Advantages
The yuan could weaken in the near term if the Chinese currency is allowed to more accurately reflect the relative state of major economies.
If China fails to meet expectations on transparency and financial reforms, Beijing could risk losing credibility or even its place in the IMF currency basket.
Stock fluctuation
Harm import-oriented enterprise
Increase the cost of studying abroad
……
Disadvantages
Exchange System
Pegged Exchange Rate SDR: Morocco
Currency board System: HK
1 Kind of “fixed”
Managed Floating Rate System: China
Median system2
Most western countries
3Floating exchange rate system
Trade-off: Which Is The Best?
The Impossible Trinity
Fixed forex rate
Independent monetary
policy
Free flow of capital
Expectations of Yuan
Exchange Bank Stock Gold ……
Investments of Yuan
Exchange rate
Thank You!
16/10/28