CHINACHINANET ASSESSMENTNET ASSESSMENT

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Geography

• Land Power facing Maritime threats

• Buffers

• Resource Rich, Arable Land Poor

• Industrialization

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Politics

• #1 Driver – Maintenance of CPC Rule

• Leader Centered – Consensus Based – cycle – Gradual devolution of leader-centered power

• “Mandate from Heaven” – Adjustments of incentives to guarantee

authority – Eat sticky candy in small bites

• Insular to International – cycle – Contradictions between nationalism and

integration

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Economics

• Economics is politics by other means

• Overdependence on trade and investment; underdeveloped domestic consumption – Center-vs-periphery – Inefficient use of capital, weak monetary policy

• Imbalanced growth shifts social demographics – Changing class structure – Widening disparities (regional, rural/urban)

• Recognition of problems, but fear of action – Damned if you do, damned if you don’t

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Security

• Party first, State second, economy and society last – Internal security apparatus

• PLA – professionalization and shifting focus – Resource protection – Land to maritime and space – United States, Japan

• Reduced PLA influence on politics

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

Society

• Population size and management

• Lack of unifying “ideology”

• Impact of economic reform and opening – Unequal distribution of wealth and

development – Ineffective migration controls – Iron Rice Bowl breaking

• SOEs, Pensions, Health, Education...

• Environment – catalyst for dissent

Geography

Politics

Economics

Security

Society

History

History

• Dynastic cycle

– Unification to bureaucracy to self-interest to loss of control to new dynasty

• Centralization to decentralization – Limiting (decreasing) cycle – Technology speeds cycle

China Net Assessed:

• Geography – Land-based power in a maritime world

• Politics – #1 driver is single-party leadership

• Economics – Economics is politics by other means

• Security – Professionalization amid shifting resource allocation

• Society – Controlling massive and diverse population

• History – Centralization-decentralization cycle