china relations disadvantage - samford 2013

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China Relations DA



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1NC ShellA. New Chinese leadership creates an opportunity to improve unstable Sino-U.S. relationsAgence Frane Presse 13 (Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Christopher Johnson, a former CIA analyst on China, said that Xi -- thanks in part to his elite background --

consolidated power more quickly than many US policymakers had anticipated. "Xi Jinping is much more relaxed

and cosmopolitan and more likely to go off the talking points . Hu Jintao was very robotic and oftentimesseemed to be talking more to the Chinese in the room than to his counterpart," said Johnson, now at the Center for Strategic and

International Studies. The Obama administration has already invested time in cultivating arelationship with Xi, and Vice President Joe Biden spent an unusually long five days in China in2011 to mingle with him.

B. The US & China will clash over economic ties to Latin America.

Schimia 12 (Emanuele, journalist and geopolitical analyst, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, fromhttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NG18Cb01.html)

The United States keeps on looking to Asia, but it had better watch its back, where China's penetration in Latin America isintensifying. Meanwhile, region's countries are taking their countermeasures to minimize the Sino-Western dispute, usingmultilateral regional and sub-regional institutions as the first line of defense. During her latest roadshow in Asia, US Secretary of

State Hillary Clinton shifted the debate over the much-trumpeted United States "pivot" towardsthe Asian-Pacific region from military confrontation to trade competition with China . Over thepast decade, trade assertiveness has turned out to be the master key to another, oftenunderestimated, geopolitical pivot: that of Beijing to Latin America - Washington's historical and

geographical backyard . China's drive for enhancing its vested positions across Central and SouthAmerica is not without pitfalls, much as those the US faces in its efforts to protect its strategic

interests in East Asia. China is Latin America's third-largest trading partner, immediately afterthe United States and European Union (EU ). Beijing's commercial exchanges with Latin-American countries wereworth more than US$241 billion in 2011, according to data released by the Chinese Trade Ministry in April. Of US$153 billion fromforeign direct investments which Latin-American and Caribbean nations attracted in 2011, $8 billion came from China (down $7billion compared with 2010), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported in May. That putsBeijing well behind the EU, US, Latin America and Caribbean and even Japan. The EU, top investor in this region, has funneled an

average of $30 billion a year into Latin America since 2002 . Recent trade and economic tensions between theUnited States, Canada and Europe on one side, and some Latin-American countries on theother seem to be playing into Beijing's hands . In May, the EU filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization(WTO) against Argentina's import barriers, after it had already challenged Buenos Aires's decision in April to nationalize YPF, thelocal energy company which until then was controlled by Spain's oil and gas major Repsol. Left-leaning governments such asVenezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador have made numerous nationalizations over the past years, which have affected mostly NorthAmerican and European companies.

C. Relations are not stable- increased tensions risk crisis escalation.Dingli 13 (Shen, professor and associate dean at Fudan University’s Institute of InternationalStudies, interviewed by Emeritus Professor Joseph Camilleri, La Trobe University, May 21, 2013,Retrieved from May 24, 2013, from http://www.thepowerofideas.com/post/50987680565/the-future-of-us-sino-relations-an-interview-with)

SD:Current Sino-US relations can be described as an interesting mix of necessary cooperationand increasing competition, with some controlled confrontation . So long as it views itself as a “City upon a



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hill,” the Uni ted States will remain fundamentally opposed to the emergence of a multipolar system. In particular the UnitedStates will resist anyone, China included, from sharing its leadership. America may accept certainpartnerships as part of a US-centric world, but not as part of a multipolar one. America may eventually agree to engage with China in

the development of a multipolar order, but out of necessity, not out of choice. There are many examples ofexpanding China-US cooperation : collaborating against North Korea’s nuclear and missile development; jointly

stabilizing the world financial market; and, dispatching large numbers of students reciprocally to learn from each other etc. But

areas of suspicion are increasing even faster when it comes to perceptions of each other’s strategic intentions:

why the US has moved its pivot to Asia, and how China perceives its interests in the South China Sea, to name a few. The US iswondering whether Beijing , especially during China’s military modernization, will follow through on itsinternational commitment, especially to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS)which allows Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia respective exclusive economic zones (EEZs), thereby denyingChina’s claim of the ri ght to tap maritime economic resources in some of these exclusive areas. China, for its part, is deeply

concerned about the US shift to a pro-Japan position in the China-Japan sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyu Islands. Such deep

mutual suspicion and subsequent hedging, if poorly managed, could lead to serious crisis

escalation .

D. Strong US-Sino relations cause political reform and peace in China as well asprevent several scenarios for global war, disease, terrorism and prolifGross 13 (Donald senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The ChinaFallacy), Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

Better relations with China would support wide-reaching political reform and liberalization .

They would undercut the repressive internal forces that legitimize one-party authoritarianrule as a means of protecting the country against foreign military threats, particularly from the United States. In the field of

national security, through an ongoing process of mutual threat reduction, the United States

can ensure that China is a future partner and not a danger to the interests of America and its allies. Thegreatest benefit is that the U.S. would avoid a military conflict for the foreseeable future with a country

it now considers a major potential adversary. Other critical security benefits to the United States and itsallies include: • Significantly reducing China's current and potential military threat to Taiwan ,

thus securing Taiwan's democracy; • Utilizing China's considerable influence with North Korea to curbPyongyang's nuclear weapon and missile development programs ; • Increasing security cooperation with

China on both regional and global issues, allowing the United States to leverage Chinesecapabilities for meeting common transnational threats such as climate change, energy insecurity, pandemicdisease, cyberterrorism and nuclear proliferation; • Curtailing cyberattacks by the Chinesemilitary on U.S .-based targets as well as enforcing stringent measures against private individuals and groups in China that

engage in cyber- hacking; • Having China submit its maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas to an

independent international judicial body to prevent festering conflicts over uninhabited islands and energyresources from escalating to armed conflict ; and • Reducing the scope, scale, and tempo of China'smilitary modernization programs by discrediting the rationale for conducting a focused anti-U.S. buildup , especially since the country has so many other pressing material needs. In his second term, President Obamashould seize the opportunity created by the emergence of China's new leadership to stabilizeU.S.-China relations -- by pursuing a diplomatic strategy that minimizes conflict, achievesgreater mutually beneficial Sino-American cooperation, and significantly expands trade andinvestment between the two countries . This approach would enable the United States to maintain an effective



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military presence in the Asia Pacific in coming years, despite defense budget cuts, while also rebalancing economic and politicalresources to the region to ensure stability and mutual prosperity.



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2NC/1NR Extensions



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Uniqueness



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Relations High Now

US-Sino relations are improving after successful summitRoberts and Goldberg 6/9 (Dan and Suzanne, Dan is the Guardian's Washington Bureau

chief, covering politics and US national affairs, Suzanne is is the US environment correspondentof the Guardian and is based in Washington DC. She has won several awards for her work in theMiddle East, and in 2003 covered the US invasion of Iraq from Baghdad. She is author of MadamPresident, about Hillary Clinton's historic run for White House . “US-China summit ends withaccord on all but cyber-espionage ” For the Guardian UK, June 9, 2013.http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/us-china-summit-barack-obama-xi-jinping)

Meeting in the baking heat of a Palm Springs country estate, the two leaders broke with protocol for two days of informal talksaimed at creating a new spirit of co-operation between the world's two economic superpowers. ¶ The common ground they found,however, was not quite what the White House expected as talks on cyber-espionage were overshadowed by revelations ofWashington's own cyberwarfare strategy. ¶ Both leaders discussed the issue for several hours, according to aides, but the best thatthe US was able to boast afterwards was that Beijing was no longer unaware of the depth of feeling on the subject. ¶ "It's quiteobvious now that the Chinese senior leadership understand clearly the importance of this issue to the United States," said Obama'snational security adviser, Tom Donilon. ¶ Washington stressed that it wished only to discuss "cyber-enabled economic theft" – thetheft of intellectual by entities based in China of property and other kinds of property in the public and private realm – rather thanbroader espionage and surveillance activity, but the nuance may have been lost. Xi chastised US media for failing to report equally

on attacks made against China. ¶ The two leaders appeared to make progress in other areas , seeminglyaware they faced increasingly shared challenges and responsibilities.¶ Under the climate deal,the US and China – the world's two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases – said they would work with othercountries to reduce the fastest growing source of emissions, the hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs) used in air conditioners andrefrigerators. ¶ HFCs are an extremely potent class of greenhouse gas – up to 1,000 times more so than carbon dioxide – but theyclear out of the atmosphere relatively quickly, in about 10 or 15 years. ¶ That short lifespan means cutting HFCs can deliver almostimmediate results, avoiding up to six times as much warming by 2050 as reductions in carbon d ioxide. ¶ The White House said on itswebsite that the deal reached on Saturday could potentially reduce the equivalent of some 90 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050,or about a year's worth of current greenhouse gas emissions. ¶ "Left unabated, HFC emissions growth could grow to nearly 20% of

carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, a serious climate mitigation concern," the White House said. ¶ The potential significanceof the co-operation between Washington and Beijing on climate issues could be even broader.China has in the past argued that cutting emissions would compromise its economic growth, while the US has typically hascountered that it would not act on climate change until China did. ¶ In the case of HFCs, there was already momentum buildingtowards such a deal before Obama and Xi's meeting. More than 100 countries have shown support for using the Montreal protocol,an agreement reached in 1987 to phase out substances that were depleting the ozone layer, to act on reducing HFCs. ¶ Donilon said

the Chinese also reaffirmed their anxiety about nuclear proliferation in North Korea and pledged

to work together to encourage regional talks. ¶ "I think what you have essentially underway here is a sharedthreat analysis and a shared analysis as to what the implications and impact would be ofNorth Korea pursuing a nuclear weapons programme ," said Donilon. ¶ Detailed quotes were less forthcomingfrom the Chinese delegation. Xi's senior foreign policy adviser, Yang Jiechi, s imply said the two leaders "talked about co-operationand did not shy away from differences". ¶ The bonhomie was also punctured by a last-minute decision from the Chinese delegationnot to stay with Obama at the historic Sunnylands estate, favouring a downtown hotel – reputedly to minimise the risk of electroniceavesdropping.

Recent California summit meeting proves Obama and Xi are pursuing a morecollaborative partnershipThe Japan Times 13 (“Getting U.S.-China relations right ” June 15, 2013http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/06/15/editorials/getting-u-s-china-relations-right/#.Ucsb3T7rk2s)

At first glance, there is a great deal of convergence between what Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted and what U.S. President

Barack Obama sought at their summit last week in California. Dig a little deeper, however, and the differences were every bit as



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important as those similarities. ¶ While both men wish to put the U.S.-China relationship on a stable path ,

there is great difference in the way that each seeks to accomplish that important objective . How they reconcile that

divergence will have a profound impact on East Asian relations in general, and the U.S.-Chinarelationship in particular .¶ As they seek that common ground, Japan must not feel threatened. Positive relations betweenWashington and Beijing do not come at Tokyo’s expense. ¶ Presidents Obama and Xi met in Sunnylands, California, last week to set atone to the relationship. Historically, such meetings were formal and stolid affairs. Tightly scripted events, there was rarely a real

exchange of views between the two leaders. They read talking points, hit their marks and demonstrated to the world — and theirrespective publics — that the two governments can do business together. The one exception to this pattern was the summitbetween U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Jiang Zemin at Mr. Bush’s Crawford, Texas, ranch at the end of Mr .Jiang’s tenure. Mr. Xi’s readiness to try this sort of summitry early in his term suggests he is a different type of leader and hasalready mustered power over the Chinese bureaucracy to allow him to engage the U.S. president in such a manner. ¶ Plainly,however, the traditional relationship has limits. Issues of common concern are expanding, and while the two leaderships are

increasingly engaged, the two sides more frequently talk at each other rather than with each other. ¶ This meeting, with itsinformality and its emphasis on acquainting the two men with each other, is designed tochange the context in which America and China engage each other. A personal relationship is nosubstitute for the hard slog of diplomacy, but it can be a cornerstone of constructive bilateral relations. ¶ At this point, differences

between the two sides rear their heads. Both governments have studied history. They know that risingpowers have traditionally been revisionist powers, challeng ing the existing political order and the reigning

hegemon. Both sides also know that unless carefully tended, such transitions are messy and

often violent. The United States and China, and every other country in Asia, have too much tolose to allow history to repeat itself .¶ Beijing is calling for a “new type of great power relations.” What that means inspecific terms is not clear, but inferring from Chinese behavior and commentary leads to the conclusion that it seeks to be theleading power in Asia and wants Washington, and other regional governments, to respect — or defer to — Chinese wishes. If Beijingwants a sphere of influence, then it will be disappointed. ¶ For its part, the U.S. wants Beijing to take a higher profile role in theregion and the world, and it sees those responsibilities as perfectly compatible with traditional relations among nations. China ismerely one great power among several. Indeed, the appropriateness of the very label “great power” depends on a country’swillingness to assume those responsibilities, whether the issue in question is cybersecurity, climate change, North Korea, Ir an’s

nuclear ambitions or setting rules for resolutions of disputes. ¶ In the past , the U.S. has called on China to be a“responsible stakeholder ,” which is the rubric it used during the second Bush administration to encourage Beijing “ to bepart of the solution” rather than part of the problem. ¶ Thus far, China’s preferred response is to assert that itremains a developing country whose resources, like its influence, are limited, and that they are both best used dealing with China’sinternal problems. That is a convenient explanation, and one that fits Chinese preferences, but it is the very antithesis of a great

power. ¶ In short, the U.S. seeks a new relationship with China. China wants a new type of

relations , one that distinguishes Beijing’s relations with Wash ington from its ties with other countries. China believes it is a greatpower by definition. ¶ The U.S. counters that such status is a function of behavior, not a country’s mere attributes. In the U.S.

formulation, with power comes responsibility. Given the stakes, the entire world needs the U.S. and Chinato succeed in creating a working relationship .¶ There is a temptation, however, among Japanese, to see a workingU.S.-China relationship coming at the expense of the special relationship that Japan has with the U.S. Nothing could be further fromthe truth. Japan and the U.S. are allies and are bound by 60 years of close cooperation, the sharing of values, interests and concerns.We are true partners. ¶ A good U.S.-China relationship is good for Japan, and a better understanding of the two countries’ interestsand concerns should reduce tension between them and with Japan. We need to have more trust in our partner and ally, just as weask it to trust in us when we engage governments and the U.S. is not at the table.

Now is the perfect time to revitalize US-Sino relations.Pei 12 (Minxin, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-residentsenior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 13,2012, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/opinion/the-us-china-reset.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print)

THE political calendars of the United States and China follow different cycles, but once everytwo decades China’s leadership transition occurs si multaneously with the U.S. presidentialelection. So now, with President Obama’s re -election and Xi Jinping’s anointing as chief of theChinese Communist Party, both countries have an opportunity to take stock of the bilateralrelationship.



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China and the U.S. are worker toward a more cooperative relationship nowAgence France Presse 13 (May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

China and the United States are hoping for a new chance to set the course for smoother relations

through a secluded desert summit as the Asian power's leader Xi Jinping projects a more confident style . Xi and

Barack Obama will meet June 7-8 at the tony Sunnylands resort in Rancho Mirage, California, their first encounter since the Chinesepresident took power and three months ahead of their first scheduled run-in at the Group of 20 summit in Russia. The talkscome amid rows between the world's two largest economies over issues that include China'salleged cyber-hacking, but the two sides expect the encounter to be less about specifics andmore about setting a tone.

The U.S. and China’s economic ties promise improving relations U.S. DOD American Forces Press Service 13 (THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE'SAMERICAN FORCES PRESS SERVICE, May 22,2013, US FED NEWS, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

But both countries must also recognize the major roles they both play in the region, he said. "The Pacific is big enough for all of us,"

Locklear told the group, borrowing a quote from both former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Chinese President XiJinping. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States' and China's economic relationship - one that

Locklear said draws them together and positively affects the entire region. The admiral noted otherpromising developments that are solidifying this foundation: China's growing participation in theinternational community, its commitment to a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and its effortsto address HIV/AIDS and pandemic diseases , among them. Meanwhile, China is demonstrating "a real appetite to

deepen the military-to-military dialogue and build on those areas on which we converge," Locklear said. The goal , he said, is tocontinually improve the channels of communication and to demonstrate practical cooperationon issues that matter to both sides.

US & China are overcoming past conflicts and developing a productiverelationship.Ide 13 (William, staff writer, VOICE OF AMERICA NEWS, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013,from Lexis/Nexis)

Xie Tao, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that while mutual suspicion is running high now inthe relationship , the upcoming meeting could be an opportunity to rebuild trust. "I think Mr. Xi ,

unlike Hu Jintao, he is a leader of some kind of personality," Xie remarked. "He has his own style . And I think that Americanmedia may like that style and President Obama may like Mr. Xi's personality. It's important that the two build up a personal

rapport." The location of the meeting also could help, he added. "I think that maybe staying away from that officialplace, Washington D.C., and getting away from this major media, the White Housecorrespondents, might be a good thing, " Xie said.

We are entering a new historical period of strong relations between the U.S.and ChinaShanghai Daily 13 (SHANGHAI DAILY BENCHMARK, May 23, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013,from Lexis/Nexis)

"President Obama and President Xi will hold in-depth discussions on a wide range of bilateral,regional and global issues ," the White House said in a statement. " They will review progress andchallenges in US-China relations over the past four years and discuss ways to enhance



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cooperation, while constructively managing our differences , in the years ahead," it said. Chinese foreign

ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that China was willing to work with the United States to strengthendialogue and cooperation in relations, which he said were "at a new historical period. " "Ofcourse, some differences exist between China and the United States, which require proper and active management by both sides,"Hong said "This year, Sino-US relations have got off to a good start and are facing an important opportunity for development."

US-Sino relations are in an important new phase.Xinhua News Agency 13 (XINHUA NEWS AGENCY, Apr. 16, 2013, BBC Monitoring AsiaPacific - Political, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday [15 April] met with Chinese and U.S. governors, calling for deeper

regional cooperation between the two countries. Relations between China and the United Statesare currently at "an important phase that connects the past and the future ," Xi told the governorsattending the second China-U.S. governors' forum. Xi recalled his latest telephone discussion with U.S. President Barack Obama,

saying they agreed on the direction for building a bilateral cooperative partnership anddeveloping a new type of relations between big powers.

Obama and Xi’s summit is a crucial step forward in US -Sino relations.China Daily European Edition 13 (CHINA DAILY EUROPEAN EDITION, May 22, 2013,Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The meeting between US President Barack and Chinese President will be a seminal event in Sino-US relations

as well as in the relations of the world, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said on Tuesday. "I am very encouragedby the announcement that the two presidents will meet, and especially by the agenda that has been announced," Kissinger said in a

speech delivered at a forum entitled " US-China Economic Relations in the Next Decade ", sponsored by the China-

United States Exchange Foundation and held in the headquarters of Asia Society. It "specifically emphasizes the longrange relationship, the review of recent interactions, and the definition of long range goals,which could make that meeting a seminal event in Sino-US relations, and also in the relationsof the world, " said the 89-year-old Kissinger.



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Now Key Time For Relations

Now is a key time to improve U.S. relations with ChinaGross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and

International Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China Fallacy,Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

In his second term, President Barack Obama has a historic opportunity to improve U.S.relations with China . Incoming President Xi Jinping will welcome American overtures andpolicies that assist China in addressing its serious domestic problems resulting from rapideconomic development -- among them environmental degradation, severe economicinequality and a weak social safety net.



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Competing over Latin America Now

Both China and the U.S. are in economic competition over Latin AmericaMallen 13 (Patricia Rey, staff writer, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES, May 30, 2013,

Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-lovers-china-us-both-vying-increase-influence-trade-latin-america-caribbean-1284839#)

The battle is on. The world's two largest economic superpowers, China and the United States, are making moveson Latin America, hoping to gain more geopolitical influence in a booming region. U.S. Vice President

Joseph Biden arrived in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday, while Chinese President Xi Jinping justlanded in the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago and is following closely in Biden’s steps. Biden’s visit toBrazil marks the end of a six- day swing through the region, which included stops in Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago. Xi’s trip toTrinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico is the first since the formal transition of power ended in China in March. These parallel journeys

from the world’s top powers to Latin America emphasize how the region’s vast natural resources and steadyeconomic growth are making it an increasingly attractive trading partner . China's designs on LatinAmerica have long been apparent, with imports to the Asian giant surging from $3.9 billion in 2000 to

$86 billion in 2011 , as calculated by the Inter-American Development Bank. Now, China seeks to start buying massiveamounts of soy beans, copper and iron ore from Latin nations, reports the South China Morning Post. The U.S. , on the other

hand, which has had deep involvement in many Latin American nations for the past two centuries, has nonetheless been lessthan consistent in its recent trade policies , said Boston University economist Kevin Gallagher, who has writtenabout China's incursions in the region. “The onus is on the U.S. to come up with a more flexible, attractive offer, but that’ s not so

easy because it doesn’t have the deep pockets like it used to,” he told Bloomberg. During his visit to Colombia, Bidensigned a two- year free trade agreement between the countries, calling it “just the beginning. ”

The VP said , at the end of a particularly tense discussion about trade in Trinidad on Tuesday, that the U.S. is deeplyinvested in the region , and wants to expand that investment with more agreements. “Our goal is not simply growth, butgrowth that reaches everyone,” he added. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden met with President Dilma Rousseff and invited her to a meetingin Washington to finalize a strategic accord. Biden mentioned being particularly interested in oil and energy companies like state-owned Petroleo Brasilero, better known as Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), reported Brazilian newspaper O Globo. Biden mentioned thattrade with Brazil could be increased by 400 percent from the current $100 billion, if trade between the two largest Western

Hemisphere nations included biofuels and aviation. Meanwhile, China’s blossoming relationshi ps with theregion evince a shift in its strategy; indeed, in the past Beijing deferred to U.S. economicinterests in Latin America, due to geographic proximity, even referring to the region as“Washington’s backyard.” But now, in a globalized world, China seems to view the entireplanet as its own "backyard ." “You don’t hear that anymore from Xi’s team,” said Evan Ellis, professor at the NationalDefense University in Washington, D.C.



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China Pursuing Latin America Now

China wants to increase its economic ties with Latin AmericaLeiteritz 13 (Ralf J. PhD, profesor asociado de las facultades de Ciencia Politica, Gobierno, y

Relaciones Internacionales, Universidaddel Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia, REVISTA COLOMBIAINTERNACIONAL, Jan. 1, 2012, Retrieved Apr. 23, 2013, from LEXIS/NEXIS)

China pursues a pragmatic course when it comes to the selection of strategic allies in the developingworld that is similar to the approach it follows developing "win-win" economic cooperation agreements. Allies are not selected onthe basis of political characteristics such as regime type or respect for human rights. As a result, the current polarization betweenradical left, social- democratic, and right-wing governments in Latin America is of little importance to China when it comes to the

question of whether to engage with them or not. In turn, countries with diverse political and economicbackgrounds such as Peru, Mexico and Chile on the one hand, and Cuba, Bolivia, and Venezuela on the

other have received similar treatment from China. The important factor is the willingness toestablish economic relations and the search for common, mutually beneficial interests.



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General

US competition with China in Latin America will hurt relations.Kelly 9 (Jason, pundit, Dec. 22, 2009, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The interests of the US and China are further apart than ever before because you have essentially a declining superpower the United States and you have a rising superpower China ,and the current superpower the US will obviously try to contain the rise of China, and Chinawill want to have more say in global affairs and you can see their expansion everywhere inLatin America , in the Middle East even in the Indian Ocean, in East Africa and so forth. So thatwill lead to tensions.

The plan worsens already existing tensions between the US & China over LatinAmericaScimia 13 (Emanuele, journalist and geopolitical analyst, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NG18Cb01.html)

The Pacific Alliance perhaps best epitomizes the complexity of the geostrategic game that pitsChina against the United States in Central and South America : this is yet another sub-regionalbloc, which Chile, Peru, Mexico and Colombia inaugurated in June, and which accounts for 35%of the Latin America's gross domestic product (GDP) and 50% of the overall Latin-Americantrade.

China will view the plan as containment, worsening relations.Chase 11 (Michael S., The Jamestown Foundation, CHINA BRIEF Volume: 11 Issue: 18, Sept. 30,2011, Retrieved May 30, 2013, fromhttp://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38471&cHash=d7a755770bc5a728bb955e31a340abf8)

No matter what strategic assurances the United States provides, some in China are concernedthe United States is becoming increasingly uneasy about China’s emergence as a great power .

Specifically, despite Washington’s rhetorical emphasis on the importance of a stable and constructive U.S. -China relationship, theyare deeply concerned the United States ultimately will attempt to delay or prevent China’s emergence as a

great power because it see s a stronger China as a threat to its continued preeminence. Some even fearWashington really intend s to “contain” China . Chinese suspicions about U.S. strategic intentions are longstanding

[2]. What is new is that a changing strategic context and series of recent events appear to beintensifying China’s concerns .

A US-China rivalry is beginning over Latin America- the plan pushes tensionsover the brinkCosta 13 (Luis, Georgetown Univers ity's School of Foreign Service, “ U.S. Chins Relations:Should Washington Be Concerned Over Growing Chinese Trade in Latin America? ” For Policymic.June 11, 2013 http://www.policymic.com/articles/48673/u-s-chins-relations-should-washington-be-concerned-over-growing-chinese-trade-in-latin-america)



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On March 16, the Inter-American Development Bank announced that it would receive $2billion from China for an investment fund to grant loans to both public and private entities in Latin America

and the Caribbean. The move is representative of China's increased efforts to boost investment in

Latin America, sparking arguments that a "U.S.-China rivalry" over Latin America could be

imminent .¶ Indeed, China's investment in Latin America has grown with impressive speed over the past few

years, making it the fastest-growing investor in the region . In fact, the PRC has already overtaken the U.S. as

Brazil's largest trading partner, and total trade between Latin America and China has been growingfaster than trade between Latin America and the United States (in 2012, the values were estimated at 8%and 6.2%, respectively). Today, according to a report released by the UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and theCaribbean (ECLAC), China is Latin America's third-largest trading partner, behind only the U.S. and the EU, respectively. The samereport predicts that by 2015 China will have surpassed the EU, remaining second only to the United States. ¶ Yet how worried shouldthe U.S. be over these figures? One thing to take into consideration is the fact that the U.S. still retains a comfortable lead againstChina in absolute terms: Washington exchanges $800 billion in goods and services with Latin America annually, more than threetimes the region's trade with China. Moreover, the fact that most of China's confirmed investments in Latin America target the

extraction of natural resources raises questions about the sustainability of China's investment in the region. It means that a

sudden change in commodity prices could have serious consequences for Chinese foreign

direct investment into the region. Finally, according to ECLAC data, most of China's trade with Latin America has been

concentrated in a small group of countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. This is a key fact that must be taken intoconsideration when evaluating China's involvement in the region as a whole. ¶



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Venezuela

China is increasing trade with Venezuela now- the plan will increase alreadyexisting tension in the region

Merco Press 13 (South Atlantic News Agency, “ China/Latam trade expanded 8% in 2012 andregion’s deficit jumped to 6.6bn” May 22, 2013 http://en.mercopress.com/2013/05/22/china-latam-trade-expanded-8-in-2012-and-region-s-deficit-jumped-to-6.6bn)

China's trade with Venezuela , its fourth-largest trade partner in Latin America, grew by 5.7 billion last yearto 23.7 billion. That was the largest increase in real terms. Chinese exports to Venezuela grew by 2.8 billion,also the largest growth in real terms and the second-largest increase in percentage terms (43.3%). ¶ Venezuelan exports to Chinagrew by 2.9 billion to 14.4 billion, the largest increase in real terms in Latin America and the largest in percentage terms among

China's top five trade partners. ¶ Last year was not a fluke, but cemented a growing trend in Chinese-

Venezuelan trade. In 2010, Chinese exports to Venezuela were 3.6 billion, or three times less than last year. Venezuelan

exports to China that year were 6.6 billion, or less than half of last year's levels.



18

Mexico

China is focusing on Mexico- more U.S. involvement there will heighten tensionRegenstreif 13 (Gary, staff writer. “ The looming U.S.-China rivalry over Latin America ”

Reuters. June 12, 2013 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/)

China has particular interest in Mexico, the region’s second -largest market . Beijing has been

competing with Mexico to supply the U.S. market with manufactured goods. But China is now looking to work withMexico City — investing in infrastructure, mining and energy because of the expected reformsthat would open the oil industry to foreign investment .¶ There are obstacles ahead. One irritation thatPresident Enrique Peña Nieto shared with Xi is that though Mexico posted a trade surplus with its global partners, it ran a b ig deficit

with China. ¶ China is looking for even more however. It is eager to pursue a free trade agreement with Mexico, butMexico City said last week it was too soon. Meanwhile, Mexico’s trade with the United States continues to flourish and it is due todisplace Canada as the largest U.S. trade partner by the end of the decade, according to the Dialogue.



19

Cuba

China benefits for the US embargo on Cuba- lifting it will cause tensionNash 13 (Paul, contributor for the Diplomatic Courier, “ How the Chinese are Helping to

Transform Cuba, Again ” May 24, 2013http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/brics/1465)

China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela, and Cuba is China’s largesttrading partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at around $2 billion .

Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms, knowing from itsown experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity can stimulate foreign investment,

build national capital and promote domestic consumption. To this end, China has granted Cuba numerous long-term low or interest-free loans to support development and maintain financial and socialstability through the reform process. It has also undertaken significant technology transfersand entered into joint ventures in farming, light industry, and tourism .¶ Cuba has started the reformprocess focussed on its biggest export industries. It has, for example, begun restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the

sugar ministry and creating Azcuba, a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar companies that operate 56 sugar millsand 850 sugarcane farms. Azcuba signed foreign investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 tomodernize harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Cuba exports about 400,000 tonnes of sugar annually to China,more than half the amount it produces for domestic consumption. ¶ China’s interest in Cuba is, of course, inseparable from the

Caribbean’s natural resources and those of Latin America more broadly. The Sino-Cuban economic fraternity, fromBeijing’s viewpoint, is largely pragmatic rather than idealistic . Beijing has demonstrated that it will conductbusiness with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as with right-leaning governments like Chile and

Colombia. The Sino-Cuban partnership may represent a lost opportunity for the United States inpromoting liberal democracy in the Western Hemisphere. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can helpCuba’s economy reform such that it, like Vietnam’s, no longer justifies the continuation of a decades -old U.S. trade embargo on thebasis that Cuba’s economy is “dominated or controlled by international communism.”



20

Internal Links



21

Relations Still Unstable

Maintaining the status quo is tough in US-Sino relations.Pei 13 (Minxin, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident

senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 13,2012, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/opinion/the-us-china-reset.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print)

However, maintaining a fragile status quo is becoming increasingly difficult. Several trends — changes in relative power in China’s favor, the one-sided focus on the military aspect of America’sAsia pivot, escalating territorial disputes that could drag in the United States and China’smilitary modernization — are exacerbating mutual distrust . Xi and his colleagues need to initiate a policyreset to signal to the second Obama administration that Beijing seeks to put ties on a more solid footing.



22

Tensions Spiral Out of Control

Tensions between the US and China set the stage for major confrontations inLatin America.

Hilton 13 (Isabel, formerly Latin America editor of The Independent newspaper andis editor of www.chinadialogue.net, CHINA IN LATIN AMERICA: HEGEMONIC CHALLENGE?, Feb.2013, Retrieved Apr. 23, 2013, fromhttp://www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aad9.pdf)

China’s presence in Latin America is unlikely to diminish and will continue to affect its regionalpartners for the foreseeable future. Although this undoubtedly entails a loss of U.S. influence in the region, both China and theU.S. have so far sought cooperation rather than confrontation. In the context of the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia,

however, and the latent, long-term strategic competition between China and the United States , there is potential forincreasing competition for influence in the future. An escalation of tensions between China

and U.S. allies in the South China or East China Sea could prompt China to raise retaliatorytensions in the U.S. backyard. At that point, the traditional Latin American allies of the U.S. could face some

uncomfortable choices.



23

Economic Ties are Key

Economic engagement is key to relationsThai News Service 13 (THAI NEWS SERVICE, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from

Lexis/Nexis)

While addressing the same function, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai saideconomic relationship has always been a "major pillar" of bilateral ties and should play aneven greater role in building a new-type of bilateral relationship. Both countries shoulddeepen their economic engagement and identify new areas of cooperation, as well as newareas of convergence of interests, including clean energy, climate change and infrastructurebuilding . – PNA



24

Loss of Chinese Soft Power in Latin America = Increase in HardPower

If Chinese soft power suffers, its hard power will increase, heightening tensionsin the regionWade 13 (Robert H, staff writer, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY, Mar. 9, 2013, RetrievedApr. 24, 2013, from LEXIS/NEXIS)

In a civilised world both parties to the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute would agree to submit their claims to the International Court

of Justice; but neither side is willing to consider such a move. There is no more dangerous (leading to irrationality)

expression of a concern with reputation than the desire to revenge a humiliation - a desireabundantly shared on both sides of the China-Japan sea . Meanwhile, wisdom on the Chinese side lies in

recognising the truth of Joseph Nye's point, " Unless China is able to attract allies by successfully developingits 'soft power', the rise in its 'hard military' and economic power is likely to frighten itsneighbours, who will coalesce to balance its power " (Nye 2013: 9).

Unless China’s soft power gr ows, its hard power will dominate, cause conflict,and prevent cooperation on key international problemsNye 13 (Joseph S. Nye, Jr., professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former Pentagonofficial, THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, Jan. 28, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013, fromLEXIS/NEXIS)

Asia is not a monolith, and its internal balance of power should be the key to our strategy . Japan, India,Vietnam and other countries do not want to be dominated by China, and thus welcome an American presence in the region.

Unless China is able to attract allies by successfully developing its ''soft power,'' the rise in its''hard'' military and economic power is likely to frighten its neighbors, who will coalesce tobalance its power . A significant American military and economic presence helps to maintain the Asian balance of power andshape an environment that provides incentives for China to cooperate. After the 2008-9 financial crisis, some Chinese mistakenlybelieved that America was in permanent decline and that this presented new opportunities. A result was that China worsened itsrelations with Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines - a misstep that confirmed that ''only China can contain

China.'' ¶ But America's rebalancing toward Asia should not be aggressive. We should heedKennan's warning against overmilitarization and ensure that China doesn't feel encircled orendangered. The world's two largest economies have much to gain from cooperation onfighting climate change, pandemics, cyberterrorism and nuclear proliferation.



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Impacts



26

Impact Magnifiers

Economic conflicts between the U.S. and China magnify every skirmish- theimpacts will be intensified

Ikenson 13 (Dan, Forbes Contributor, Jan. 29, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 fromhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2013/01/29/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-u-s-china-economic-relations/)

That appears to be no longer the case. Although the massive economic relationship – which reached a record half trillion dollars of

trade and investment flows in 2012 – is s till mutually beneficial, the future of U.S.-China relations based ondevelopments over the most recent six years appears more problematic. Today , it seems, mostbilateral economic frictions are magnified through the prism of those geopolitical andphilosophical differences, making controversies seem larger and more intractable.2. The US-China relationship is the most important relationship of the 21st century.Dan Ikenson, (Forbes Contributor), Jan. 29, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 fromhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2013/01/29/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-u-s-china-economic-relations/The claim that the U.S.- China relationship will be the 21st century’s most important has becomea cliché repeated at policy gatherings in Washington and Beijing. It also happens to be the truth.



27

Laundry List

Strong US-China relations solve a laundry list of world crises.Thai News Service 13 (THAI NEWS SERVICE, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from

Lexis/Nexis)

The two countries have different cultures and are at different stages of development , one being the largest

developed nation and the other being the largest developing nation in the world. Each is of substantial economic size,and can contribute to global economic activities in different ways, said Tung, founding chairman of the China-

United States Exchange Foundation, a non- profit organization. Both countries want to establish a pattern ofsecure, high- quality and sustainable growth and employment for their people. Workingtogether, the two countries can do more to contribute towards global economic recovery andfinancial stability , he said. Both countries can collaborate to solve a broad set of global challenges in fields

such as energy security, food sufficiency, environmental protection, climate change, nuclearweapons proliferation and the efforts to fight terrorism , said Tung, who served as the first chief executive ofthe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).

US-China cooperation can solves piracy, terrorism, prolif and diseaseDOD American Forces Press Service 13 (The U.S. Department of Defense's AmericanForces Press Service, May 22, 2013, US Fed News, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Gen. Fang Fenghu, China's top military officer, identified counterterrorism, antipiracy,humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, logistics and military medicine as potential areasof cooperation during a visit to Beijing by Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Looking to the

future, Locklear said, it's vital that both China and the United States recognize their responsibilitiesas regional and global leaders . "We must move beyond our individual differences to bring consensus to issues that

threaten regional stability and future prosperity," he said. That includes partnering with other nations to

address regional security challenges such as piracy, terrorism, proliferation and pandemicdisease .

US-Sino relations solve Korea, Iran, energy security, and climate changeCampbell 13 (Kurt, chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of theCenter for a New American Security, Apr. 22, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, fromhttp://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/04/22/the-mechanisms-of-the-us-china-relationship/#axzz2UMjGr8ON)

Currently, there’s probably more discussion about where and how the two countries should talk rathe r than what they will talk

about. Indeed, there is general agreement along corridors of power in Washington that severalcritical issues – including North Korea, Iran, macroeconomic policy, market access, cyberissues, energy security and climate change – require high-level attention from both sides . Someof the most interesting decisions, however, are about the appropriate mechanisms for conducting dialogue on these very topics.

Currently, the US and China have some of the most engaged and intricate diplomatic mechanismsof modern times .

US-Sino cooperation solves nuclear proliferation and climate change.Gross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China



28

Fallacy), Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

Secretary of State John Kerry has emphasized the importance of U.S.-China cooperation . As Chairman of

the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he argued convincingly: "... the simple fact is that we need China, andChina needs us . We have to get this relationship right. After all, we are talking about our connection to one-sixth of humanity.

The most serious problems we face today, from nuclear proliferation to climate change, can'tbe solved alone. And, economically, our futures are deeply intertwined and will remain so."

US-Sino relations solve terrorism, proliferation, and natural disasters.China Business News 12 (CHINA BUSINESS NEWS, Sept. 20, 2012, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013,from LEXIS/NEXIS)

The future security and prosperity of the US will be linked to Asia more than any other place in the world,

but this is a region threatened by terrorism, nuclear proliferation, piracy and natural disasters,

he said. Strong China-US relations are vital for the region, said Panetta. He called for Washington and Beijing to lookbeyond disagreements to areas where both share common concern and can work together. "We cannot let those disagreements

and challenges blind us to the great opportunities that exist," he told the military academy. " If we work together andcooperate together, we can solve problems together."



29

Peace in Asia

US-Sino cooperation key to peace and prosperity in AsiaDOD American Forces Press Service 13 (The U.S. Department of Defense's American

Forces Press Service, May 22, 2013, US Fed News, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The United States and China , by increasing their dialogue and engagement, can build a foundation of trustwhile fostering regional security and prosperity, the top U.S. commander in the region said yesterday. "While

competition between the United States and China is inevitable, conflict is not," Navy Adm. Samuel J.Locklear III, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, told members of the National Committee for U.S. China Relations in New York.



30

Global Economy

US-Sino relations would boost the global economyGross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and


The best way to overcome the "China threat" and advance U.S. interests in East Asia is byachieving a stable peace with China through the diplomatic resolution of outstandingeconomic and security conflicts between the two countrie s. By successfully negotiating abilateral U.S.-China free trade agreement and including China in the regional free trade area ofthe Asia Pacific known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the U.S. would unleash unprecedentedlevels of international trade and investment . These agreements will tear down trade barriersto American goods and services , achieve far greater transparency in China's regulatorypractices, and enable the United States to benefit from the economic dynamism of Asia - thenew "engine" for global growth. Improving relations between Washington and Beijing wouldalso strengthen the advocates of human rights and democracy within China .

US-China cooperation key to the global economy.Thai News Service 13 (THAI NEWS SERVICE, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, fromLexis/Nexis)

U.S. and China can cooperate more to resolve a range of challenges to advance globaleconomic recovery , said Tung Chee Hwa, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political

Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China's political advisory body, here Wednesday. Over the past few decades, the economicrelationship between the United States and China has developed "from virtually nonexistentto becoming a highly interdependent and mutually beneficial" one. The United States and China are thetwo largest trading nations globally, and are each other's second largest trading partners, Tung said at a seminar on U.S.- Chinaeconomic relations hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.



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Poor Relations = War

Poor US-Sino relations cause a new cold war.Gross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and


Without an improvement in U.S.-China relations, however, there exists a grave risk thatsimmering conflicts between the two countries could worsen considerably and lead to a newCold War. Heightened concerns in the United States, in recent days, about cyberattacksoriginating in China underscore this danger.

Poor US-China relations risk war with China.Gross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China Fallacy,Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

The prognostications of China hawks have nevertheless increased the possibility that thewidespread belief in a coming war with China could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As eachcountry "hedges" and ramps up preparations for war, its actions stimulate greater militarymodernization and more aggressive actions by the other side, magnifying the risk of conflict.



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Nuclear Prolif= Nuclear War

Nuclear Prolif increases the risk of nuclear warNunn 13 (Sam, Senator, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Jan. 31, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013, from

LEXIS/NEXIS)President Reagan said it often and said it well: A nuclear war cannot be won and it must not be fought. Mr. Chairman, as this committee knows, the risk

of a global nuclear war have thankfully, substantially -- substantially declined since the breakup of the Soviet Union. But with nine nationspossessing nuclear weapons, with nuclear weapons usable material and knowledge spreadacross the globe, and with terrorists ready to use a nuclear weapon if they manage to buy,steal or make one, we face enormous risks with a -- that a nuclear weapon will be used. Ifproliferation continues in countries like Iran and North Korea, and if we do not secure nuclear materials and weapons globally , theodds of use will go up even more.



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2NC/1NR Blocks



34

Uniqueness



35

A2: Relations doomed- Snowden

Snowden’s released damaged relations, but experts say it will “blow over” Wee 6/25 (Sui-Lee, correspondent for Thomson Reuters. “ China-U.S. ties under strain, but not

imperiled by Snowden ” for The Global Post. June 25, 2013.http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/thomson-reuters/130625/top-china-paper-hits-back-at-us-accusations-snowden)

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's ties with the United States are coming under strain over the flight ofwanted U.S. spy agency contractor Edward Snowden from Hong Kong , with Beijing's main statenewspaper praising him on Tuesday for "tearing off Washington's sanctimonious mask". ¶ The White House said the decision by theChinese territory to allow Snowden to leave was "a deliberate choice by the government to release a fugitive despite a valid arrestwarrant, and that decision unquestionably has a negative impact on the U.S.-China relationship. ¶ The overseas edition of China'sPeople's Daily, which does not spell out official policy but can reflect the government's thinking, said Beijing could not accept "this

kind of dissatisfaction and opposition" from the United States. ¶ But experts on both sides say the tirade should

quickly blow over, and that neither country will be keen to let ties deteriorate permanently

just weeks after a successful summit meeting between President Barack Obama andPresident Xi Jinping .¶ "China does not want this to affect the overall situation, the central government has always

maintained a relatively calm and restrained attitude because Sino-U.S. relations are important ," said Zhao Kejing, aprofessor of international relations at China's elite Tsinghua University. ¶ "The United States has no reason to exert greater pressure,otherwise it would lose moral support." ¶ Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution who was an Asia adviser inBill Clinton's White House, said sanctioning Beijing was "inconceivable" and linking Snowden to other issues would undo careful

policy aimed at handling issues in separate lanes to avoid big ruptures in ties. ¶ "Over the years, we've sought toprevent any serious disagreement in one issue area from spilling over and degrading theentire relationship ," he said. ¶ At the summit earlier this month, Obama confronted Xi over allegations of cyber-theft. Xiearlier told a news conference with Obama that China itself was a victim of cyber attacks but that the two sides should worktogether to develop a common approach. ¶ Snowden's revelations of widespread snooping by the U.S. National Security Agency inChina and Hong Kong have given Beijing considerable ammunition in the tit-for-tat exchange. ¶ "In a sense, the United States hasgone from a 'model of human rights' to 'an eavesdropper on personal privacy', the 'manipulator' of the centralized power over theinternational Internet, and the mad 'invader' of other countries' networks," the People's Daily said. ¶ "The world will rememberEdward Snowden," the newspaper said. "It was his fearlessness that tore off Washington's sanctimonious mask." ¶ ISOLATED CASE¶ The Chinese government has said it was gravely concerned by Snowden's allegations that the United States had hacked into manynetworks in Hong and China, including Tsinghua University, which hosts one of the country's Internet hubs, and Chinese mobilenetwork companies. It has said it had taken the issue up with Washington. ¶ "Not only did the U.S. authorities not give us anexplanation and apology, it instead expressed dissatisfaction at the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for handling things inaccordance with law," wrote Wang Xinjun, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science, in the People's Daily commentary. ¶ State

news agency Xinhua was more conciliatory in its tone. ¶ "Both Beijing and Washington fully know that anisolated case should not be allowed to hurt one of the most critical relationships in the world, "

Xinhua said in a commentary. "It is in the interest of both countries to keep the positive momentum in bilateral relations." ¶ Xi'snew government , which took office in March, is eager to be seen on an even footing with the UnitedStates as Beijing seeks what it calls a new "big-power" relationship with Washington that takes into account China's rise. ¶ Still,China's academics and state media have been loud in their calls for the Obama administration to apologize to Beijing. ¶ "Being toughis their unilateral attitude, which we can choose not to accept," said Liu Feitao, the deputy chief of U.S. studies at the China Instituteof International Studies, a top think-tank affiliated with China's foreign ministry. ¶ "The United States should not shift the real focus,"Liu said. "This thing has nothing to do with China, except that America owes China an explanation on the cyber attack leaks b ySnowden."

Experts say Snowden incident won’t affe ct relationsThe Nation 6/26 (Thai News Service, “ US-China ties won't be hurt by Snowden ” June 26,2013 http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/US-China-ties-wont-be-hurt-by-Snowden-30209047.html)



36

In the larger scheme of things, the United States and China will want to move on from the episode asquickly as possible . As University of Nottingham scholar Steve Tsang said: " The basic US-China relationship is

driven by far greater forces and the overall impact will therefore be limited. "¶ The US registered

strong objections to the authorities in Hong Kong and China through diplomatic channels at the decision to let Snowden leave

despite an extradition request. It "noted that such behaviour is detrimental to US-Hong Kong and US-China bilateral relations", saidWhite House National Security Council spokesman Caitlin Hayden. ¶ While the Hong Kong government insists Snowden left of hisown will and according to the law after a provisional US arrest warrant purportedly failed to meet its judicial requirements, sourceshave said that Beijing had orchestrated the move to remove a thorny issue. ¶ The fear was that it could destabilise Sino-US ties ifSnowden stayed on to fight a legal battle in Hong Kong that could last up to five years. ¶ This line of thinking was lent further heft byDemocratic Party lawmaker Albert Ho, who said yesterday he had been hired as Snowden's lawyer and had relayed a message froma mystery intermediary telling Snowden he should leave the city. Said Ho: "I have reasons to believe that ... thos e who wanted himto leave represented Beijing authorities." ¶ China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hua Chunying did not confirm this despitebeing asked thrice at a briefing. ¶ While Hong Kong enjoys autonomy under the "one country two systems" framework, Beijing hasthe final say over its defence and diplomacy. Said Hong Kong-based Chinese researcher Chen Shaobo: "It is clearly a diplomatic

(issue), and therefore Beijing would be involved." ¶ Other analysts said the two powers are keen not to marthe camaraderie created after presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama's tete-a-tete inCalifornia earlier this month. Renmin University scholar Shi Yinhong said Beijing might even have informed Washingtonof Snowden's departure in advance, reflecting a tacit understanding. ¶ Certainly, politicians on both sides have largely refrained fromcriticising each other over the case of Snowden, who has alleged US hacking of China's mobile phone and computer networks. ¶ Hua

yesterday said China has lodged a protest with the US over this, but also stressed that it was in the interests of Chinaand the US to develop ties in a "stable and healthy way" .¶ Snowden's departure is a good outcome for US-China ties in the long run, say the analysts. As Professor Anthony Saich of Harvard University said, Beijing was happy to see him leaveHong Kong "so that it did not produce an endless running war of words between the US, Hong Kong and China". ¶ "Also, I think theUS is probably glad that Hong Kong will not be used for revelations about its surveillance activities in the Asia region," he added.

Experts say the NSA scandal will only help relationsGross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), a former White House and State Department official, and author ofThe China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War(Bloomsbury, 2013), “ Will the NSA Revelations Harm US-China Relations? ” June 18, 2013. Forthe Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/will-the-nsa-revelations- _b_3450798.html)

So the critical question arises: Will the NSA revelations -- particularly the aggressive U.S. hacking of Chinese networks and

the concerted U.S. efforts to prepare offensive cyberattacks against potential adversaries including China -- torpedo theprogress made at the summit ?¶ Though columnist Joe Nocera at the New York Times argues that "the existence of Prism

will make it far more difficult to force the Chinese to get serious about stopping their own hacking," I respectfully disagree. I

believe the NSA revelations will help the U.S. and China move forward in addressing

cyberespionage issues and in so doing, strengthen their overall relations . Here's why. ¶ To beeffective, the diplomatic process for reducing tensions on security issues between Washingtonand Beijing must be grounded in reality -- in truthful and factual analysis of specific threats.

Out of shared assessments of those threats, the two countries can develop measures that willimprove their mutual security. ¶ At the summit meeting in California, this is precisely how theU.S. and China strengthened their cooperation for dealing with the nuclear threat from NorthKorea. The two sides moved closer to a common assessment of the dangers posed by Pyongyang's weapon programs which thenenlarged their overlapping interests and led to a pledge to work together on implementing joint security strategies. ¶ The same canbe said for the summit agreement on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) -- a particularly dangerous class of greenhouse gases -- where Chinaembraced the U.S. view that the two countries need to cooperate more closely to mitigate the risk of global warming. ¶ No suchagreement on the divisive issue of cyberespionage was remotely possible at the summit because the policy discussion was notgrounded in a realistic assessment of the threat. China denied it engaged in cyber-hacking and called itself a victim of extensivecyberattacks. The United States portrayed China as the leading aggressor in attacking U.S. cyber networks while minimizing and



37

concealing American surveillance activities in cyberspace. ¶ In essence, both countries used misleading rhetoric to conjure up falseimages of reality in order to protect their interests in pursuing cyberespionage. But the political consequences for the United Stateswere worse. The recent revelations of NSA's surveillance activities validate Beijing's view of itself as equally victimized bycyberattacks and demolish the one-sided U.S. portrayal of China as the preeminent aggressor in this field. ¶



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Links



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A2: No Link- Cyber security

Latin America is becoming more of a source of tension in US-China relationsthan cyber security

Valencia 6/24 (Robert, New York-based political analyst and a contributing writer for GlobalVoices , “US and China: The Fight for Latin America ” June 24, 2013 for worldpolicy.orghttp://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-china-fight-latin-america)

During the first weekend of June , U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President XiJinping met in California to discuss cyber espionage and territorial claims in the Pacific Rim.While tension on these topics has hogged the headlines, the fight for influence in another

area could be even more important —Latin America. Other emerging markets in Africa, whereChina has an overwhelming influence due to foreign direct investment in mining and oil, alsooffer economic opportunities, but Latin America has an abundance of natural resources,greater purchasing power, and geographic proximity to the United States, which has longconsidered Latin America as its “backyard .”



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Aff Answers



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Uniqueness



42

Relations Poor Now- Snowden

Snowden’s release represents a “serious setback” for US -Sino relationsPecquet 6/24 (Julian, staff writ er for The Hill, “ US-China relations chill over Snowden ” for

thehill.com June 24, 2013 http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/307511-us-china-chill-over-snowden)

The White House upbraided China on Monday for allowing Edward Snowden to board a planeou t of Hong Kong, warning the move represented a “serious setback” in relations . [WATCH VIDEO]¶

Press secretary Jay Carney blasted China in unusually blunt terms as the administration hunted forSnowden, the leaker of National Security Agency documents who is now believed to be hiding out in Russia. ¶ Carney dismissed

Hong Kong’s legal justification for allowing Snowden to leave — “we do not buy the suggestion that China couldnot have taken action” — and said there would be consequences. ¶ “The Chinese haveemphasized the importance of building mutual trust, ” Carney said. “ And we think that theyhave dealt that effort a serious setback. If we cannot count on them to honor their legalextradition obligations, then there is a problem . And that is a point we are making to them very directly.” ¶ The

escalating tensions threaten to derail President Obama’s careful outreach to newly elected Chinese President Xi Jinping, whic hbegan earlier this month with a summit in California. ¶ A former senior NSA official said Carn ey’s statement “reflects the strong

sentiment that the Chinese did mess up on this.” ¶ “There’s no way around it. The Chinese messed up,” the officialsaid. “This is a real screw -up on their part, and it’s not helpful and was not in the same vein as the rec ent summit inCalifornia [between Obama and Xi]. ¶ “This does put a chill on things after the warmth of California. There’s going to need to be somereal heart to heart in the coming weeks and months.”

US-China relations negatively impacted by NSA incident- Clinton explainsCBS 6/25 (CBS News, Washington D.C. “ Clinton: China Damaged Relationship with U.S. byAllowing NSA Leaker to Flee ” June 25, 2013http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/06/25/clinton-china-damaged-relationship-with-u-s-by-allowing-nsa-leaker-to-flee/)

LOS ANGELES— Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday that China damaged its relationship with theU.S. by allowing National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden to flee from Hong Kong,despite a U.S. request to arrest him for extradition. ¶ “That kind of action is not onlydetrimental to the U.S.-China relationship but it sets a bad precedent that could unravel theintricate international agreements about how countries respect the laws — and particularlythe extradition treaties,” the former secretary of state and possible 2016 presidential contender told an audience in Los

Angeles. ¶ Clinton’s remarks echoed criticism from White House officials that Hong Kong’s refusalto detain Snowden had “unquestionably” hurt relations between the two countries. Hong Kong has a highdegree of autonomy from the rest of China, although experts believe Beijing probably orchestrated Snowden’s exit in an effort toremove an irritant in relations with the U.S. ¶ Clinton said the former CIA employee engaged in “outrageous behavior” by releasingsensitive documents that he contends show privacy violations by an authoritarian government. Snowden is now in Russia, and theWhite House wants him sent to the U.S. to face espionage charges.

Snowden’s released damaged Sino -US relationsCentre for Research on Globalization 6/25 (globalresearch.org “ US issues threats toChina, Russia over Snowden ” June 25, 2013 http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-issues-threats-to-china-russia-over-snowden/5340361)

Speaking at a news conference yesterday, White House spokesman Jay Carney bluntly declared: “We are just notbuying that this was a technical decision by a Hong Kong immigration official. This was a



43

deliberate choice by the government to release a fugitive despite a valid arrest warrant, andthat decision unquestionably has a negative impact on the US-China relationship .”¶ It is no doubtthe case that the decision to allow Snowden to leave Hong Kong was taken at the top level in Beijing, but that reflects anger in Chinaand Hong Kong over the US espionage operations. Snowden provided information to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Postshowing that the NSA had hacked into hundreds of civilia n computers in Hong Kong and China since 2009, including Hong Kong’sInternet Exchange. ¶ While the Chinese government is yet to comment on the latest US threats, the state-owned press has hit back.The Chinese Communist Party newspaper People’s Daily declared that the decision to let Snowden leave Hong Kong was “consistent

with the law and entirely defensible.” Referring to the NSA’s huge theft of data, it called on the US to stop the “hypocrisy of a thiefshouting ‘stop thief!’” and to account for US intel ligence agencies infiltrating Chinese computer networks.



44

Cyber Attacks Threaten Relations Now

Relations poor now- cyber attacksThe Indian Express 13 (“Massive cyber-attacks threatens US-China relations: Lawmakers ”

June 27, 2013 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/massive-cyberattacks-threatens-uschina-relations-lawmakers/1134538/)

Top American lawmakers and experts have warned that the massive cyber-hacking emanatingfrom China seriously threatens the bilateral relationship and urged the Obama administration to take all

necessary measures to counter the threat. ¶ "We've seen in the last few years it's not only Americancompanies that are the targets, it's media and it's human rights organisations - somethingparticularly important to Congressman Smith and me. Journalist writing about corruption in China find their computer systems

hacked and their passwords stolen," Senator Sherrod Brown said during a Congressional hearing yesterday. ¶ "For humanrights organisations and activists dealing with hacking attacks from China is almost a daily factof life . We can't sit idly by. That's why I support a comprehensive common sense bipartisan approach to hold China accountable,"he said. "With the growing prevalence of computer networks in America's heavily wired economy, cyber-attacks represent an

increasingly growing threat alongside more traditional forms of intellectual property theft. China simply doesn't play by the samerules as we do. Chinese governments deny these attacks even though there is evidence of Chineseinvolvement ," he added. ¶ "Cyber-attacks on Congress are only a small, but not insignificant part of a much larger pattern ofattacks that have targeted the executive branch, the Pentagon and American businesses," Congressman Christopher Smith said in hisremarks, alleging that his own computers have been hacked by sources originating in China. Senator Carl Levin said reportssubmitted to the US government indicates China to be the worst offender by far. ¶ "As far back as 2011, the National

Counterintelligence Executive said in its annual report to Congress to, quote, "Chinese actors," are the world's mostactive and persistent perpetrators of economic espionage ," he said. ¶ Levin along with other Senators hadrecently introduced a legislation -- Senate Bill 884, the Deter Tech Cyber Theft Act - which requires the director of NationalIntelligence to produce a report that includes a watch list and a priority watch list of foreign countries that engage in economical orindustrial espionage against the United States in cyberspace.



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Relations Poor Now- Economic Espionage

Tensions rising now- economic espionageRiley 6/27 (Michael, reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, “China’s Sinovel Charged by U.S.

With Stealing Trade Secrets ” June 27, 2013 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-27/china-s-sinovel-charged-by-u-dot-s-dot-with-stealing-trade-secrets-1)

Sinovel Wind Group Co. (601558 ), a Chinese wind-turbine company, was charged with stealing tradesecrets from its former U.S. supplier, a case of industrial espionage that may heightentensions in U.S.-China relations in the wake of the Edward Snowden affair .¶ U.S. prosecutors securedan indictment of the company and two of its executives in federal court yesterday in Madison, Wisconsin. Also charged was DejanKarabasevic, who pleaded guilty in Klagenfurt, Austria, to stealing source code for the turbine controllers made by AmericanSuperconductor Corp. (AMSC), his former employer. The company lost more than $1 billion in market value after the theft became

public. ¶ The indictment’s timing may give it prominence in the U.S. intensifying dispute with

China over economic espionage . That conflict has only been inflamed by Snowden’sdisclosures of U.S. computer-based spying, and China’s decision to allow the ex -NationalSecurity Agency contractor to fly to Russia from Hong Kong, where he had fled. ¶ “My 5 -year-old understandsthat this is wrong,” AMSC Chief Executive Officer Daniel McGahn said by phone. “If your ideas can be stolen without recourse, thereis no reason to invest in innovation, and if there is no reason to invest in innovation, there is no purpose to the American economy.”



46

US Economic Engagement in Latin America High Now

US economic engagement in Latin America is already high nowGoodman 13 (Joshua, staff writer, “ Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties ”

May 29, 2013 for Bloomgberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html)

Biden’ s tour , which began May 26 in Colombia, included a “frank” and at times “brutal”discussion about trade, economic growth and security with 15 Caribbean leaders in Trinidad yesterday, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said, without giving more details. The leaderssigned an accord to boost investment and economic cooperation. ¶ “Our country is deeplyinvested and wants to be more deeply invested in the region,” Biden said in Port of Spain.Yesterday’s accord “will give us all a vehicle to overcome special , specific, practical barriers totrade and investment. Our goal is not simply growth, but growth that reaches everyone .”¶ InColombia, Biden said a one-year-old free- trade agreement between the two countries is “justthe beginning, ” citing a doubling of t he period for which entry visas are valid and efforts toexpand trade ties further.

The US is already “stepping up its game” in Latin America Clark 5/30 (staff writer, “China’s moves in Western Hemisphere have U.S. stepping up itsgame” May 30, 2013 for th e Miami Herald.http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/30/3425015/chinas-moves-in-western-hemisphere.html)

WASHINGTON --China’s courting of Latin America and the Caribbean – signaled anew this week by a visit by its president – isprodding the United States to step up its outreach to the rapidly emerging economies, which are showing greater global clout. ¶

President Xi Jinping’s weeklong trip to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico starting

Friday comes in the wake of President Barack Obama’s recent trip to Mexico and Costa Rica,and follows by just a day Vice President Joe Biden’s three -nation tour of the region . Xi will meetwith Obama at the close of his trip, June 7-8 in California. ¶ China has eclipsed the United States as Brazil and Chile’s largest t radingpartner, purchasing soybeans, iron ore and oil to fuel its rapidly expanding economy. Latin American exports to China accounted for

just $5 billion in 2000; by 2012, they topped $104 billion. ¶ The global giant’s rising influence in the hemisphereha sn’t gone unnoticed in Washington, in part prompting what Biden dubbed the “most activestretch of high- level engagement” in Latin America and the Caribbean in a “long, long time.” ¶ In addition to Obama’s and Biden’s trips, the White House will host Peru’s President Ollanta Humala and Chile’s President SebastianPinera next month. And in October, Obama will hold a rare state dinner for President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. ¶ “Nothing motivatesWashington faster than competition,” said Eric Farnsworth, the vice president of the Council of the Americas and the AmericasSociety, noting that trade deals with Colombia and Chile were accelerated when it became apparent that Canada and China were

moving in. ¶ “There is recognition in Washington that we need to begin to contend more activelyfor the Americas, that Latin America is not a region we can take for granted anymore – if we everdid – because the region does have options,” Farnsworth said. “We are still in many ways the preferred partner but we’re not the

guaranteed partner, and we’ve got to fight for the region in a way that maybe we haven’t had to traditionally.” ¶ White

House officials downplayed the Chinese presence, saying the U.S. doesn’t view itself as competing for trade in Latin America. Biden,in remarks in Rio de Janeiro, said the U.S. welcomed investment by all. He said he’d talked to Xi about pursuing bilateral investmenttreaties with China, as well as India. ¶ “For those who are accustomed to the world before it changed, some of this is frightening,”Biden said. “Some of this is threatening, but all of it’s necessary.” ¶ In addition to his three-country tour, Xi will meet with officialsfrom Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Suriname and Jamaica, China’s Assistant Foreign Mini sterZhang Kunsheng said. ¶ His visit comes as China’s largest pork producer, Shuanghui Group, looks to purchase the U.S.’s biggest porkprocessor, Virginia-based Smithfield Foods. The $4.7 billion deal will trigger a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in theUnited States, which reviews mergers between the U.S. and foreign companies to ensure that national security isn’t put at ris k.¶ Though Chinese involvement in the hemisphere has raised geopolitical questions, analysts say Xi’s trip to Latin A merica and the



47

Caribbean is more about its economy and ensuring that it has access to markets in order to purchase raw materials and sell itsmanufactured goods. China also has a massive presence in Africa, and Xi traveled to Tanzania, South Africa and Congo shortly afterhe took office in March.



48

Links



49

No Link- Cyber Security

Cyber security is the key in US-China relations- not Latin AmericaAP 6/8 (The Associated Press for NPR, “ Cybersecurity Deemed Central To U.S.-China Relations ”

June 8, 2013 http://www.npr.org/2013/06/08/189928150/cybersecurity-deemed-central-to-u-s-china-relations)

President Obama used an unusually lengthy and informal desert summit to present ChinesePresident Xi Jingping with detailed evidence of intellectual property theft emanating from hiscountry, as a top U.S. official declared Saturday that cybersecurity is now at the "center of therelationship" between the world's largest economies .¶ While there were few clear policy breakthroughs oncybersecurity, U.S. officials said Obama and Xi were in broad agreement over the need for North Korea to be denuclearized. Andboth countries expressed optimism that the closer personal ties forged between the two leaders during the California summit could

stem the mistrust between the world powers. ¶ Still, Obama's national security adviser Tom Donilon saidresolving cybersecurity issues would be "key to the future" of the relationship. ¶ Obama told Xithat "if it's not addressed, if it continues to be this direct theft of United States property, that

this was going to be very difficult problem in the economic relationship and was going to bean inhibitor to the relationship really reaching its full potential," Donilon said during a briefing withreporters following the summit. ¶ In their own recap of the meetings, Chinese officials said Xi opposed all forms of cyberspying, but

claimed no responsibility for attacks against the U.S. ¶ "Cybersecurity should not become the root cause ofmutual suspicion and frictions between our two countries. Rather, it should be a new brightspot in our cooperation," said Yang Jiechi, Xi's senior foreign policy adviser .¶ Yang said the two leaders"blazed a new trail" away from the two nations' past differences and "talked about cooperation and did not shy away fromdifferences." ¶ Obama and Xi met for about eight hours over the course of two days at the sweeping Sunnylands estate, marking asignificant and unusual investment of time for both presidents. Their talks included a working dinner of lobster tamales, Porterhousesteak and cherry pie prepared by celebrity chef Bobby Flay, and a morning walk through the manicured gardens of the 200-acreestate on the edge of the Mojave Desert.



50

No Link- No Trade-off

US-Latin America economic engagement does not affect Chinese-LatinAmerican relations

Mi 6/5 (Li, correspondent for Xinhuanet news, “ Xi's trip ushers in new chapter for China-LatinAmerican relations ” June 5, 2013 for Xinhuanet news.http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-06/05/c_132432058.htm)

BEIJING, June 5 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping's ongoing trip to Latin America and the Caribbean hasushered in a new chapter in the region's fast-growing bilateral relations with China. ¶ The tripalso proves that the two sides can be each other's opportunities in their long-termcomprehensive cooperation .¶ In the past decade,the development of bilateral trade testifies to the win-win cooperation

China and its Latin American partners have vowed to seek. ¶ China is now the second largest trading partner ofLatin America and a leading source of investment in the region . It is the largest trading partner of Brazil andChile. Free trade agreements have been signed between China and Chile, Peru as well as Costa Rica respectively. ¶ Even amidst theglobal economic downturn and the European debt c risis, bilateral trade reached 261.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, increasing by 8.1

percent year-on-year. It is expected to reach 400 billion dollars in 2017. ¶ It is undeniable that China's demand for commoditiesrevived the growth engine for resource-rich Latin America in recent years. However, Latin America is not just China's raw materialcorner, nor is China Latin America's one-time bonanza. ¶ To enhance cooperation across such geographical distances is not bricolage.

The trade structures of China and Latin American countries are highly complementary. Theyoffer a wide range of cooperation opportunities which have been expanded beyond energy toinclude, among other things, finance, agriculture, infrastructure, science and technology,aerospace, and tourism .¶ The economic exchange between China and Latin America has also found a balance betweentrade and investment, evolving from the trade-dominated mode at the very beginning. ¶ China's investment in Latin America hasreached around 65 billion dollars and created much needed jobs in the region. The infrastructure projects funded by Chinese banksand built by Chinese contractors set good examples that China and Latin America have already been on track for comprehensivecooperation in the long term. ¶ Meanwhile, China and Latin America are also facing common challenges during their development. ¶ Rural-urban migration, sustainable development, environment protection and the widening wealth gap have been or are on the twosides' agenda. ¶ According to the Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013, China and most Latin American countries are in adevelopment stage of "efficiency-driven" or in a transition stage of "efficiency-driven to innovation-driven." ¶ China and Latin

America do not simply surf the wave. They can learn from each other and help each other in the long run,making joint efforts to keep integrated into the value chain of global production .¶ It is eye-catchingthat the high-level exchanges between China and Latin America have been more frequent since the Chinese leadership transition.China-Latin American relations are an integral part of the Chinese government's overall diplomatic balance. ¶ China and LatinAmerica are inseparable in South-South cooperation. Both sides have exchanged views and supported each other on a variety ofissues through world-class platforms like APEC, BRICS, G-20 summits and the newly set-up Latin America panel at the Boao Forumfor Asia.¶ President Xi and other Chinese leaders have noted recently that China is ready to promote the establishment of the China-Latin America Cooperation Forum as a better platform to deepen the comprehensive cooperative partnership between China andthe region. ¶ Xi is the first Chinese president to visit Trinidad and Tobago and English-speaking Caribbean countries, and the secondto visit Costa Rica. During his visits, Xi also met with leaders of several more nations in the region, including Antigua and Barbuda,

the Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Suriname and Jamaica .¶ The Chinese's president's visits are sure tobring new momentum and turn over a new page for China-Latin American relations .¶ Given thesignificant positions of Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico in the Caribbean, Central America and Latin America, the visitsare sure to set examples for the development of bilateral ties between China and other countries in the region.



51

No Link- Not Competing

The U.S. and China can cooperate over Latin AmericaGlobal Times 5/31 (“China, US not competing over Latin America: expert ” May 31, 2013

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/785721.shtml#.Uc22LT7rk2s)Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Latin America and the Caribbean on Friday, in a state visit aiming at promoting China'scooperation with the region. ¶ Xi's visit to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico follows his first foreign trip to Russia and threecountries in Africa, Tanzania, South Africa and Republic of Congo, shortly after taking office in March. ¶ While Xi kicks off his visit, US

Vice President Joe Biden is concluding his Latin America visit on the same day, as he leaves Brazil Friday. Some media reportsdescribed "dueling visits" by Chinese and US leaders, and said that the "competition between the world's twobiggest economies for influence in Latin America is on display." ¶ Both the US and China deny they are competing with each other.Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said last week that the two countries can "carry out cooperation in Latin America by

giving play to their respective advantages." ¶ Tao Wenzhao, a fellow of the Institute of American Studies atthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences , told the Global Times that it is a coincidence that the two leaders

chose to visit Latin America at a similar time, and that China has no intention to challenge US influence in the area. ¶ " It's not

like in the 19th century when countries divided their sphere of influence in a certain area.

China and the US' involvement in Latin America is not a zero-sum game," Tao said, explaining that it is

a good thing for Latin America. ¶ Chinese and US leaders visit Latin America out of their respectivestrategic needs, Tao said. All countries need to interact and cooperate with other countries, and visits of such high-level areusually arranged long time before they starts, Tao said. ¶ China has embarked on a diplomatic drive since completing its once-in-a-decade leadership transition with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also visiting India, Pakistan, Switzerland and Germany, and severalhigh-level visitors to Beijing. After visiting Mexico, Xi travels to the US for his first summit with President Barack Obama on June 7 to8 in California.



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Impacts



53

Relations Resilient

Relations with China are resilient

Dongxiao 12 – Vice President of Shanghai Insti tutes for International Studies (Chen, 01/05, “ China-US Relations in 2012:Caution Ahead ,” http://chinausfocus.com/slider/no-reason-for-chagrin-over-china-us-relations-but-cautious-management-needed-in-2012/)

The year of 2011 brought many unexpected, globally altering events. This year, non-stop crises and sea changes in the

international arena; chaos and revolution in the Middle East and West Africa; catastrophic Tsunami and nuclear-leakcrisis in Fukushima; paralysis of leadership of EU confronting the evolving debt predicament in Euro-Zone; and the sudden death ofKim Jong-il and its unpredictable repercussions on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia were just a few of the tumultuous

events that led global economic and political instability this year. Bilateral relations between China and the US , in

contrast have been relatively stable, and increasingly positive. Three driving forces have contributed to theimprovement in US-China relations in 2011: mutual commitment, multi-function mechanisms, and increasing interdependence.Beijing and Washington both stressed their commitment to building a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual

benefit following a rocky year of bilateral relations in 2010. Both sides have stressed that the relations hip

between China and the United States should be cooperative and mutually beneficial rather than zero-sum,and that the two sides should stand together in the face of difficulty and carry out cooperationon an equal footing. The mutual commitment between China and the US has been bolstered by an increasing number of bilateralmechanisms with policy communication, coordination, and implementation functions (“C2I”). 2011 has seen of the growth of “C2I”mechanisms intensify. with a number of new initiatives, including High-level Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges, the US-China Governors Forum, and the Strategic Security Dialogue and Asia-Pacific Affairs Consultation under the framework of Strategicand Economic Dialogue (S&ED). While the former two initiatives have either reflected thriving interaction in cross-cultural domainsor tapped the huge potential of sub-national cooperation across the Pacific, the latter two mechanisms have greatly upgradedcapacity to address difficult and sensitive military and security issues in bilateral relations n and build confidence in US-China

relations. The 60 plus bilateral mechanisms, plus frequent exchanges of informal visits and workshops

between senior officials have built an impressive level of institutionalization in US-China bilateral relations that has enhanced the predictability of relations between the two countries and

helped consolidate the foundation of the relations. The substance of the bilateral relationship, in essence, is not to follow

the two presidents’ agreements in words, but to follow the roadmap in action, and those bilateral mechanisms have built signi ficantcapacity to do this. Thirdly and perhaps most fundamentally, the growing interdependence across the Pacific and

emerging agenda of global governance has served as the “ballast” in the bilateral relations hip. Despite numeroustrade disputes between the two countries, economic interdependence has been steadily enhanced, manifested either by the hike ofbilateral trade and investment volume, symbiotic financial relations, or the economic restructuring now underway in both countries.This interdependence has transcended economics, and is growing increasingly comprehensive in nature.

Security cooperation prevents disputes over trade pressure from derailingrelationsTaiwan News 4

(4-27, Lexis)He also said Washington's renewed protests about Beijing's human rights, weapons proliferationand trade practices were insufficient to destabilize U.S.-China relations, because America'sreliance on Beijing in diplomatic efforts toward North Korea, and Beijing's hopes for U.S.pressure to be used against Taiwan, are part of a broad set of calculations keeping therelationship on track .

Relations resilientStokes 5 (Bruce, PhD, Snr Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, National Journal, 7-16, Lexis)



54

The Chinese resent growing pressure from Washington to revalue their currency, the yuan . Theyworry about mounting anti-Chinese sentiment in Congress. They anticipate potential bilateral friction over North Korea and overChina's lengthening economic and diplomatic shadow in East Asia. And, said Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at

Beijing University, "there are deep-rooted suspicions of U.S. intentions." Nonetheless, members of China's smallcommunity of experts on Sino-American relations are upbeat. They welcome April's agreement betweenBeijing and Washington to hold regular senior-level talks, with Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick leading the dialogue, on thefull array of issues facing the two nations. They think that the Taiwan issue is manageable. And they have faith that the U.S.-Chinarelationship can be put on a stable course once Beijing convinces Washington that China's military buildup in recent years poses no

threat to the United States, and that China does not want to exclude America from Asia. Continues… ¶ As Yuan suggests, asdynamic as China appears from the outside, insiders here fret about their country's domesticvulnerabilities. Tens of millions of Chinese are jobless and drifting around the country with no permanent home. Thepossibility of an economic slowdown that might increase this number sends shivers through the leadership. Moreover, millions morework unproductively on the land. At some point, these people need to find jobs in industry and services if Chinese agriculture is everto become more efficient. In addition, the strength of the financial system, burdened as it is by bad loans, is a constant worry.Opinions differ on how serious the problem is. Green, from Standard Chartered Bank, says there is "good reason to believe thatChina can get through this." But the banking system is likely to be vulnerable for years to come. All of this uncertainty exists amid anenvironment of mounting civil unrest. The number of demonstrations and other citizen protests has increased dramatically in thepast few years, and many are aimed at the tax system and at environmental abuses. This internal political insecurity is compounded,analysts here say, by a growing wariness of U.S . meddling. Well aware of the role that Washington played in funding successfulopposition groups in Ukraine and elsewhere, the already insecure Chinese leadership views Bush administration talk of democracypromotion with grave concern. For these reasons, Chinese experts on Sino-American relations welcome the new high-level dialogue

between China and the U.S. that is slated to commence this summer. The talks aren't intended to solve specific problems -- such asTaiwan -- but will focus on building trust about each other's long- term geopolitical and security intentions. The Chinese would like tosee the dialogue take up the expanding U.S. role in Central Asia, how Americans see their future relationship with Japan, and how topeacefully manage mutual energy needs. Although Chinese praise the dialogue as a good beginning, they do not have highexpectations for the first meetings. They realize that the process will be slow. For that reason, some Chinese experts believe thatthere is also a need for a quick-reaction, crisis-management dialogue that would focus more specifically on emerging flash points.

But they hold out little hope for such an interchange, saying the Pentagon opposes it. So the challenges facing the U.S.-China relationship, as seen from Beijing, are daunting but manageable. The course of events maydepend on how Washington handles mounting frustration with China in the United States. "This is going to be very difficult," saidSusan Shirk, a professor of political science at the University of California (San Diego). "The history of pressuring the Chinese to dothings is not one of great success. When we pressure them, they dig in their heels. It turns into a contest of wills. And you can't keepany of this from the Chinese people anymore. The Internet sets the agenda, and Beijing has to react. So if we start venting, they will

start to vent." Fortunately, said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a China expert and a professor of politicalscience at the University of Michigan, the relationship has proven quite resilient over the

years. "We are far beyond the era when one or two issues could break the relationship, " he said.

Relations resilient- constant cooperation will only increaseWenzhao, 09 – Senior Researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the ChineseAcademy of Social Sciences Tao, 2/17/09, “Positive signs ahead for Sino -US relations,” China Daily,http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-02/17/content_7482140.htm)

The direction of Sino-US relations under Barack Obama's presidency is drawing increasing attention as the new US administrationtakes shape. The new president made remarks about China during his election campaign and wrote for the US Chamber ofCommerce in China an article on the prospect of Sino-US ties in h is term of office. In January, newly assigned Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton also deliberated on US foreign policy in a Senate hearing. Obama acknowledges that commoninterests exist between China and the US and welcomes a rising China . He realizes China's remarkableachievement in the past 30 years has driven economic development in neighboring nations and believes its emergence as a big

power is irreversible and the US should cooperate to deal with emerging challenges. The US and China have hadeffective and smooth cooperation on a wide range of economic and security issues, from anti-terror, nonproliferation and climate change to the restructuring of the extant internationalfinancial system. This is expected to be the new administration's mainstream China policy and dominate the future of Sino-US

relations. As multilateralism believers, both President Obama and Vice-President Joe Bidenadvocate international cooperation instead of unilateral action to deal with internationalchallenges and resolve disputes . Fruitful cooperation between China and the US on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issueclearly indicates constructive bilateral and multilateral cooperation on sensitive issues can help ease strained regional situations. Thenew US administration has expressed its wishes to continue to promote a stable Korean Peninsula and to improve ties with the



55

Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The new administration has also expressed expectations for cooperation with China on other

international issues, such as the Iranian nuclear and Darfur challenges. China now plays a crucial role in the world'spolitical landscape and we look forward to cooperative ties with it , Clinton recently said. Ever-deepeningeconomic and trade ties, as the cornerstone of bilateral relations, are expected to continue to develop during Obama's tenure.

Relations resilient

Stokes 5 ( Bruce, PhD, Snr Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, National Journal, 7-16, Lexis)

The Chinese resent growing pressure from Washington to revalue their currency, the yuan.They worry about mounting anti-Chinese sentiment in Congress. They anticipate potential bilateral friction over North Korea andover China's lengthening economic and diplomatic shadow in East Asia. And, said Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International

Studies at Beijing University , "there are deep-rooted suspicions of U.S. intentions." Nonetheless,members of China's small community of experts on Sino-American relations are upbeat. Theywelcome April's agreement between Beijing and Washington to hold regular senior-level talks, with Deputy Secretary of StateRobert Zoellick leading the dialogue, on the full array of issues facing the two nations. They think that the Taiwan issue ismanageable. And they have faith that the U.S.-China relationship can be put on a stable course once Beijing convinces Washingtonthat China's military buildup in recent years poses no threat to the United States, and that China does not want to exclude Americafrom Asia. Continues… ¶ As Yuan suggests, as dynamic as China appears from the outside, insiders here fret about their country'sdomestic vulnerabilities. Tens of millions of Chinese are jobless and drifting around the country with no permanent home. Thepossibility of an economic slowdown that might increase this number sends shivers through the leadership. Moreover, millions morework unproductively on the land. At some point, these people need to find jobs in industry and services if Chinese agriculture is everto become more efficient. In addition, the strength of the financial system, burdened as it is by bad loans, is a constant worry.Opinions differ on how serious the problem is. Green, from Standard Chartered Bank, says there is "good reason to believe thatChina can get through this." But the banking system is likely to be vulnerable for years to come. All of this uncertainty exists amid anenvironment of mounting civil unrest. The number of demonstrations and other citizen protests has increased dramatically in thepast few years, and many are aimed at the tax system and at environmental abuses. This internal political insecurity is compounded,analysts here say, by a growing wariness of U.S. meddling. Well aware of the role that Washington played in funding successfulopposition groups in Ukraine and elsewhere, the already insecure Chinese leadership views Bush administration talk of democracypromotion with grave concern. For these reasons, Chinese experts on Sino-American relations welcome the new high-level dialoguebetween China and the U.S. that is slated to commence this summer. The talks aren't intended to solve specific problems -- such asTaiwan -- but will focus on building trust about each other's long- term geopolitical and security intentions. The Chinese would like tosee the dialogue take up the expanding U.S. role in Central Asia, how Americans see their future relationship with Japan, and how topeacefully manage mutual energy needs. Although Chinese praise the dialogue as a good beginning, they do not have highexpectations for the first meetings. They realize that the process will be slow. For that reason, some Chinese experts believe thatthere is also a need for a quick-reaction, crisis-management dialogue that would focus more specifically on emerging flash points.

But they hold out little hope for such an interchange, saying the Pentagon opposes it. So the challenges facing the U.S.-China relationship, as seen from Beijing, are daunting but manageable. The course of events maydepend on how Washington handles mounting frustration with China in the United States. "This is going to be very difficult," saidSusan Shirk, a professor of political science at the University of California (San Diego). "The history of pressuring the Chinese to dothings is not one of great success. When we pressure them, they dig in their heels. It turns into a contest of wills. And you can't keepany of this from the Chinese people anymore. The Internet sets the agenda, and Beijing has to react. So if we start venting, they will

start to vent ." Fortunately, said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a China expert and a professor of politicalscience at the University of Michigan, the relationship has proven quite resilient over theyears. "We are far beyond the era when one or two issues could break the relationship," hesaid.



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China is Peaceful

China is peaceful —focusing on internal economic development and not foreignpolicy disputes:

Elizabeth Roche, 1/9/11 (Livemint, " Right now, India should not get distracted bygeopolitical issues ", http://www.livemint.com/2011/01/09211823/Right-now-India-should-not-ge.html?atype=tp)

Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and a China expert, isin New Delhi to attend the ninth Pravasi Bharatiya Divas —an annual gathering of the Indian d iaspora. In an interview, he spoke

about India’s engagement with China and South -East Asia. Edited excerpts: In the past two years, we have seen avery aggressive China —not only towards India but also towards neighbours in South-East Asia. What are the reasons for

this? I don’t think there has been any fundamental change in Chinese foreign poli cy. They haveclearly made more mistakes in the last 12 months. They seem to be more assertive in theirclaims over the South China Sea. They are perceived to be more assertive vis-a-vis India. But Ithink their overall foreign policy hasn’t changed. I thi nk they are still abiding by their principle

that they are going to focus on internal economic development; they don’t want to getdistracted by foreign policy disputes. And their main challenges are internal, not external .



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No US-China War

No threat of trade war between the US and ChinaChina Post February 1, 2009 (“A Sino-U.S. trade war? Sounds quite unlikely”,http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/world-issues/2009/02/01/194084/A-Sino-U.S..htm)

Predictions of an imminent trade war between the world's largest and third-largest economies areonly natural . House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has been a leadingprotectionist in the Senate, speaking against Beijing's “unfair trade” policies. Mrs. Clinton is lukewarm towards Beijing; in her Senateconfirmation hearing she named Japan and India as America's “two most important allies in Asia,” ignoring the elephant in the room.The issue of China's foreign exchange rate has been an irritant in U.S. -China trade for more than adecade. The Bush administration pressured Beijing to allow the yuan to float instead of being peggedto the dollar. Since July 2006, the yuan has been allowed to float based on “a basket of currencies” including the dollar. But theappreciation has been too slow and small, from 8.2 to 6.8, to satisfy Washington, which believes the undervalued yuan has hurt U.S.manufacturers and created an unlevel playing field. But China has refused to yield to U.S. pressure, mindful ofJapan's lesson in the early 1990s when it drastically devalued the yen under U.S. pressure to reduceits huge trade surplus with America. The devaluation resulted in prolonged economic recession fromwhich it has not recovered to this day. Geithner's warning, however, may carry a hidden message, telling Congress thenew administration will be tough on China on trade issues, and Congress needn't be in a hurry to initiate punitive legislation againstChina, when a trade war with China would have no winners. At a time when the U.S. is struggling to weather the worst economiccrisis since the Great Depression, and when Obama needs money he doesn't have to jumpstart the economy, the dumbest thing todo is start a trade war with China — the largest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds and other government-backed debt. He must place U.S.national interest uber alles. Considering the circumstances, a trade war is very unlikely . According to NielsenReport early this week, Obama called his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao over the weekend to express hishope for maintaining “strong, constructive” relations, and for closer cooperation in dealing withpressing world issues. So, what's in store for the Washington- Beijing relationship? To paraphrase Obama, “it may get worsebefore it gets better.”

No risk of China war- multiple domestic factors checkKumar 8-11 -11 [Vikas, Assistant Professor of Economics at Azim Premji University, Bangalore, “China’s Achilles’ Heels – Analysis,” http://www.eurasiareview.com/china%E2%80%99s-achilles%E2%80%99-heels-analysis-11082011/ ]

To conclude, the capacity of China to challenge the United States as the provider of global publicgoods like international security, international political institutions, and new technologies willcontinue to be constrained in the near future. This in turn will check its geo-po litical ascendance. Here three additional observationsare in order that reinforce the above conclusion. First, the effective gap between the United States and China is greater than the perceived gap becauseof the former’s relatively greater capacity to se lf-doubt. Second, the purportedly declining United States has an enormous capacity to revitalize itself.Obama’s election is just one manifestation of that capacity. Third, the present disu nity within the West is not irreversible, particularly if China asserts

itself too soon. A unified West would be practically invincible in the foreseeable future . And, in any case,

unrest in the Han majority regions (particularly in the countryside) due to growing economic inequality,chronic unrest in the ethnic minority regions (that constitute more than 60% of China’s area), and the potentiallyimpending political transition will limit China’s capacity to sustain aggression abroad. So, in theforeseeable future, international posturing notwithstanding China will be constrained to be an inward-looking, defensive power. But in the meantimethe misleading view that Chinese hegemony is imminent could push leaders of democracies, particularly in China’s neighbourhoo d, to indulge inunnecessary jingoism and lead to counter-productive foreign and defence policies. It is not t he case that China is not a threat to regional stability. But arealistic appraisal of China’s intentions, capacity, and constraints is indispensable for working out a reasonable response t o the challenges posed by

China’s rise.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/world-issues/2009/02/01/194084/A-Sino-U.S..htm

http://www.eurasiareview.com/china%E2%80%99s-achilles%E2%80%99-heels-analysis-11082011/




http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/world-issues/2009/02/01/194084/A-Sino-U.S..htm



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No Impact to Prolif

No cascade prolif and no terrorist acquisition of nukesMueller 11*John, professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. “'Clocking' Nuclear Weapons” International Relations and Secu rityNetwork.]

At the same time, alarmist efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons - particularly to Iraq and North Korea - haveproved to be exceedingly costly. It is far from clear what Saddam Hussein, presiding over a deeply resentful population and anunreliable army (fearing overthrow, he was wary about issuing it bullets), could have done with a tiny number of bombs against hisneighbors and their massively armed well-wishers other than stoke his ego and deter real or imagined threats. But the 1990ssanctions and the anti-proliferation war against Iraq of 2003 have cost more lives - probably far more lives - than the explosions on

Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. And so, it may well be, have the sanctions against the pathetic regime in North Korea. Nuclearproliferation, while not necessarily desirable, is unlikely to accelerate or prove to be a majordanger. I have nothing against making nonproliferation a high priority. I would simply like totop it with a somewhat higher one: not killing tens or hundreds of thousands of people underthe obsessive sway of worst-case scenario fantasies. And one way to reduce the likelihoodthat errant regimes will seek nuclear arsenals is to stop threatening them constantly. We nowhear that Osama bin Laden was devilishly plotting train derailments from his once-quietquarters in Pakistan. This scarcely suggests that al-Qaida was into high-tech nucleardevelopments; the likelihood that terrorists will come up with such weapons is vanishinglysmall. Although they seem to be useless, nuclear weapons have been exceedingly effective at generating diplomatic hysteria,exquisite theory-building (or nuclear metaphysics), and massive expenditure. It has been estimated that during the Cold War, theweapons cost the US somewhere between $5 and $10 trillion - enough, by one calculation, to have purchased everything in thecountry except for the land.

Prolif is slow - Pessimistic predictions for runaway prolif are unfounded andbased on Cold War paranoiaVan der Meer 11[Sico, Research Fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ and a PhD Candidate at the Erasmus

University Rotterdam; his PhD project on nuclear proliferation dynamics is financially supported by the Dutch non-governmentalorganisation IKV Pax Christi. “ Not that bad: Looking back on 65 years of nuclear nonproliferation efforts” Security and Human Rights2011 no.1 ]

Since the invention and first use of nuclear weapons, predictions on the spread of these weapons have been traditionallypessimistic. Especially during the Cold War, from 1945 to 1991, the persistent pessimism among experts and policymakers is — withthe knowledge of looking backwards — surprising. During the first decades of the Cold War it was generally expected that far morecountries would acquire a nuclear weapons arsenal rather soon. This pessimism was not that strange, considering that nuclearweapons were generally seen as acceptable, desirable and even necessary among political and military elites in many nations duringthe 1950s and early 1960s.2 Nuclear weapons are considered as the ultimate weapon that would deter any enemy from attacking.Moreover, nuclear weapons offer not only military power: they are also considered to increase a state’s political powerinternationally. Having nuclear weapons grants a state — and its leadership — international prestige, and a nuclear weapon statewill automatically be considered and treated as a (regional) superpower. Based on this positive attitude towards nuclear weapons,forecasts in these years were therefore easily predicting that 20 to 25 states would become nuclear weapon powers within the nextfew decades; countries like Sweden, West Germany and Japan are examples of countries that were often considered would sooncross the nuclear threshold, but they never did. One of the reasons for the alarming forecasts during much of the Cold War periodwas the failure of many estimates to distinguish between the capacity of states to develop nuclear weapons and the desire of thesestates to do so.3 Even nowadays, however , political and academic forecasts often tend to be ratherpessimistic, predicting nuclear domino effects, or chain reactions, when new nuclear weaponpowers (for example, Iran) will emerge and cause other states to develop nuclear weaponstoo.4 Despite all the pessimistic forecasts, however, only nine states nowadays possessnuclear weapons.5 Although more states have employed nuclear weapons programmes atsome point in the past 65 years, most of them have sooner or later ended their ambition toacquire these weapons. Some states even destroyed their nuclear arsenal (South Africa) or



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gave up inherited arsenals (Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan). Especially since the second halfof the 1980s the number of states with nuclear weapons-related activities has become verymarginal .6



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in Saudi Arabia was negotiating for the purchase of three Russian nuclear devices.” GrahamAllison, a Harvard professor and author of a book on nuclear terrorism, said he agrees with thepresident that the threat is growing, based on Nor th Korea’s nuclear proliferation to Syria andinstability in nuclear-armed Pakistan.



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No Asia War

No East Asian war --- informal processes secure and maintain East Asian peaceWeissmann, 09 --- senior fellow at the Swedish School of Advanced Asia Pacific Studies (Mikael Weissmann,“Understanding the East Asian Peace: Some Findings on the Role of Informal Processes,” Nordic Asia Research Community,November 2, 2009, http://barha.asiaportal.info/blogs/in-focus/2009/november/understanding-east-asian-peace-some-findings-role-informal-processes-mi)

The findings concerning China’s role in keeping peace in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea,and on the Korean Peninsula confirm the underlying hypothesis that various informal processesand related mechanisms can help explain the relative peace . Virtually all of the identified processes andrelated mechanisms have been informal rather than formal. It should be noted that it is not necessarily the same types of processes

that have been of importance in each and every case. In different ways these informal processes havedemonstrated that the relative lack of formalised security structures and/or mechanisms havenot prevented the region from moving towards a stable peace. Informal processes have beensufficient both to prevent tension and disputes from escalating into war and for moving EastAsia towards a stable peace.

china relations disadvantage - samford 2013

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