1/28/2015 China:TheEclipseofthePolitburo|TheDiplomat

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China: The Eclipse of the PolitburoEvidence suggests the Politburo Standing Committee is in decline, while the central partybureaucracy gains more clout.

ItiscommonlybelievedthatanincomingGeneralSecretaryoftheChineseCommunistParty(CCP)canenactwhateverpolicieshechooses,solongasthetopsevenornineleadersofthePBSCagree.Iftheydonotagree,conventionalwisdompresumes,thenitisunlikelythattheleaderswillgetmuchdone.Such,atanyrate,wastheprevailingviewatthestartofXiJinpingstenure.AnalysespublishedatthetimeofXisascensionconfidentlypredictedthathewouldproveweakandachievelittle,duetothechallengeofgainingconsensusamongPBSCmembersofsuchvaryingbackgrounds.Outcomesstarklyatoddswithsuchforecastshavedonelittletodeterexpertsfrommakingadditionalassertionsfollowingthesamelogic.ItisnothardtofindanalysestodaythatclaimXisanticorruptiondriveisfundamentallyapowergrabthatisalienatingfellowPBSCmembersandthussettingXiupforlongtermfailureoncehispeersturnagainsthim.

Ximaywellfailinhisreformagendaforavarietyofreasons,butlackofconsensusinthePBSCwillnotbetheprimarydriver.TheimportanceofconsensusforenactingpolicybetweenthetopsevenleaderswhocomprisethePBSCisoverstated.Consensusremainsnecessary,atleastonthesurface,forthemostimportantpolicyinitiativessuchasthepursuitofstructuralandsystemicreformsunderwhichthecurrentanticorruptiondriveisnestled.Inreality,though,PBSCmembersareincreasinglyconstrainedintheirabilitytoundermineordrasticallychangethegeneraldirectionofpolicy.Fortheoverwhelmingmajorityofthecountryspolicydirectives,whatreallycountsisthedegreeofconsensuswithinthecentralpartybureaucracy,orstafforganizations(i.e.,thekeystaffbodiesandorganizationsprimarilyintheCentralCommittee,suchastheGeneralOffice,CentralPolicyResearchOffice,CentralPartySchool,OrganizationDepartment,etc.)andbetweenthesamecentralpartystafforganizationsandtheGeneralSecretary.IndividualswhoseektoanticipatethefuturetrajectoryofPRCpolicymakingwouldbewellservedtomasterthepubliclyavailabledocumentsproducedbythesebureaucraciesinsupportoftheGeneralSecretary.

TheweakeningofthepowerofindividualPolitburoStandingCommitteemembersandthegrowingimportanceoftherelationshipbetweentheGeneralSecretaryandthecentralsupportstaffowespartlytoXispersonalinitiative,butprimarilytomajor,longtermchangesinthenatureofCCPrule.Becausetheretreatfromrevolutionarypoliticshasundercutthemostcompellingargumentforpartydictatorship,theCCPincreasinglybasesitslegitimacyontheclaimtouniquelypossessasuperiorintellectualmethodologyitsMarxisttheorythatalonecanensuresoundgovernanceandChinasrejuvenationasagreatpower,aswellastheresultsgeneratedfromthissupposedlyinfalliblemethodology.InthewordsofXiJinping,theCCPspoliticaltheoryistheonlycorrecttheory,theadherencetowhichaloneenablesthepartytouniteandleadthepeopletoachievenationalrejuvenation.

By Timothy HeathJanuary 26, 2015

1/28/2015 China:TheEclipseofthePolitburo|TheDiplomat

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WhiletheprincipleofinfallibilityhasalwaysbeenafeatureofthepartysLeninistnature,theoriginalrevolutionaryincarnationprovedmuchmoreamenabletotheusurpationofauthoritybymembersoftheleadershipelite.Afterall,whenthelogicofapoliticaltheoryfavorsrevolutionaryoverthrow,authoritycanaccruetoanyonewillingtopromotethemostradicalvision.Indeed,chaosinMaoistChinafrequentlyowedtothisproblem,ascompetingpersonalitiesviedforthemantleofrevolutionaryauthorityandtherebydrovegovernmentpolicyinthedirectionoftheirownpoliticalagendas.

Thepartyspursuitofamoretechnocraticstyleofpoliticsinrecentyearsretainstheprincipleofinfallibility,buthasalsonarrowedandrestricteditsexpression.Toshoreuptheimpressionthatitspoliciesarederivedfromascientificallyrigorousintellectualmethodology,CCPmustinvestasmuchenergyelaboratingitstheorysystemofsocialismwithChinesecharacteristics,asitdoestodevelopsoundpoliciesthatmeettheneedsofitspeople.Consequently,themostessentialindividualsandorganizationsintheCCParethosewhocanarticulatethesocialisttheorysysteminaclear,consistent,andscientificmanner,aswellasthosewhocandevelopsoundpoliciesthatpromotethepartysobjectivesinamannerthatvalidatesthetheory.Itshouldbeapparentalreadythatahandfulofbusyindividuals,especiallythosegivenextremelybroadpolicyportfolios,lackthetimeandexpertisetocarryoutthiswork.Theindividualsbestpositionedtomeettheseneedsarethoseanalysts,theorists,staffmembers,andexpertswhoresideprimarilywithinthepermanentorganizationsoftheCentralCommittee.TheseindividualscollaborateonacontinualbasistobuildthecommonunderstandingaboutChinassituation,developtheoryconceptstoguidepolicy,andoutlinethetechnicaldetailsofpolicytoshapeeliteopinionandsupportseniordecisionmakers.Themoreeffectivelythesestafforganizationsdotheirjobs,theeasieritbecomesforthePolitburoStandingCommitteetoapprovetheirrecommendationsanddirecttheimplementationofpolicyaccordingly.Asaresult,theconsensusbuiltbythecentralpartybureaucracyunderthesupervisionoftheGeneralSecretaryhasprevailed,andwilllikelycontinuetoprevail,insettingthecourseforthenationspolicies.

AnotherconsequencehasbeenanerosionofthepowerofindividualPBSCmembers.TheincreasinglyinstitutionalizednatureofthepoliticalsystemrequiresPBSCleadersandothereliteleaderstodeveloptheirownteamsoftheorists,analysts,andpolicyexpertsiftheyaretodrivepolicyinadramaticallydifferentdirection.ChineseleadershaveshownlittleinclinationtoempowerindividualmembersofthePBSCtooverturntheconsensusbuiltbythecentralsupportstaffundertheGeneralSecretarysdirection.ThereductioninnumberofPBSCmembersfromninetoseven,atthestartofXistenure,suggeststhateventhenthepursuitofPBSClevelconsensuswasincreasinglyviewedasmoreofahindrancethanahelptoachievingpartygoals.Moredramatically,thecaseofZhouYongkangdemonstratesinavividfashionjusthowvulnerablemembersofthePBSChavebecome.Overall,thetrendinrecentyearshasbeentowardsastrengtheningoftheGeneralSecretarysinfluence,andofthecentralsupportstaffastheprimaryinstrumentofhispower.WhilethisconsolidationhasbecomemostapparentunderXi,inmanywayshistenurerepresentsanintensificationoftrendswellunderwayintheHuera.Themostimportantofthesetrendsinclude:1)anexpansionandelevationofthecentralpartybureaucracysroleinpolicymaking2)thesystematizationofthepartysideologyand3)thestandardizationofthepartyspolicymakingprocesses.ThesereformshavegenerallystrengthenedtheinfluenceofpoliticalandtechnicalexpertsinthecentralpartybureaucracyandconstrainedthepowerofindividualPolitburoStandingCommitteeleaders.

ExpansionandelevationofCentralCommitteeorganizationsinpolicymaking.BothHuJintaoandXiJinpinginvestedconsiderabletimeandresourcestostrengthentheircontrolofthecentralsupportstaff.Theyalsoexpandedandelevatedtheroleofthesestaffsinthepolicymakingprocess.TheintroductionofPolitburostudysessionsandexpandedmeetingsinthe2002timeframe,forexample,providedaregularvenueforpartyexpertstocoach,mentor,andteachseniorleaders,afunctionmanagedbytheCentralPolicyResearchOffice(CPRO)andCentralCommitteeGeneralOffice.UnderXi,theCPROhasalsobeendesignatedtheadministratoroftheCentralReformOffice,whichmanagestheallimportantCentralLeadingGroupforDeepeningComprehensiveReform,whiletheGeneralOfficeadministerstheNationalSecurityCommission.XihasalsoaddedtwodepartmentstotheCPROtohandletheexpansioninresponsibility.Similarly,whileheadoftheCentralPartySchool(CPS)fortenyearspriortohisascenttoGeneralSecretary,Huoversawamajorexpansionoftheschool.XialsoservedforfiveyearsasdirectorofCPSpriortohisascent.TheCPShasbecomeaprincipalthinktankforthepartystheorywork,aswellasthepremiertraininggroundforseniorleaders.

Systematizationofpartytheory.In2004,Huoversawamajoroverhaulinpartyideologytorenderitmorefunctionalandpragmatic,resultinginthetheorysystemofsocialismwithChinesecharacteristics.Thismultiyeareffortsystematizedthevariouselementsofthepartyideology,keepingandrefiningthoseelementsthatcouldbeusefulforthenewpolicyagendaanddiscardingthelessusefulparts.TheendresultwasamodernideologybettersuitedtoservingtheCCPsneedsasagoverningparty.However,ithasalsoempoweredexpertsintheCentralCommitteeastheresident

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authoritiesonhowtodefineandarticulateanincreasinglytechnical,systematic,andspecializedideology.

Standardizationofpartypolicymakingprocesses.Beginningin2002,thepartysawagreatexpansioninthenumbersandtypesofCCPrules,policies,andprocedurestogovernmostaspectsofpartyactivity,toincluderecruitment,promotion,evaluation,anddecisionmaking.Tosupportpolicymaking,the16thPartyCongressin2002alsointroducedandstandardizedanumberofstrategicobjectives(zhanlemubiao),majorstrategictasks(zhongdazhanlerenwu),policydocuments(suchastheannualDocumentNumberOneforruralreform),andhighleveltrainingeventsaimedatforgingconsensusbehindthepolicyagendasetbythecentralleadership.Theprocessofdraftingkeystrategyandpolicydocuments,toincludePartyCongressreportsandPlenumdecisions,hasbecomeincreasinglyroutinizedandtheworklargelyledbyexpertsinthecentralpartybureaucracy.Officialsofthecentralpartybureaucracyalsomanagethetrainingandeducationofcadrestocarryouttheagendaaccordingly.In2003,forexample,centralauthoritiesbegananannualtrainingseminarforthenationsprovincialandministeriallevelleadersinthemostimportanttheoreticalconceptsandpolicyprioritiesforthecomingyear.Theincreasingstandardizationofmanyofthepartyspoliticalprocessesconstrainstheabilityofindividualleaderstodrivedramaticshiftsinpolicythroughinformal,behindthescenespoliticking.

Tobeclear,muchaboutChinesepoliticsremainspoorlyoronlysemiinstitutionalized.Secrecyandbehindthescenespolitickingshroudmanyofthemostsensitivepoliticalissues,suchastheselectionofindividualleadersandothermattersofelitepolitics.Nevertheless,adecadeofideologicalandpoliticalreformhasresultedinastrongercentralpartybureaucracycapableofprovidingthecohesion,vision,anddepthofexpertiseneededtohelpseniorleaderscarryoutanexpandedpolicyagendaaimedatprovidingmoreeffectivegovernanceandrealizingChinasrejuvenation.TherelentlesspromotionofXiasthemostimportantleaderamonghispeers,andtheaccretionofpowerinthehandsofXithroughthecreationoftheNationalSecurityCommissionandnumeroussmallleadinggroupstocarryoutstructuralreforms,representstheculminationofthesetrends.ThemoreXitakesonresponsibilitiesandnewpowers,afterall,themorehedependsontheexperts,specialists,andofficialsofthecentralsupportstafftoprepareandoverseethepoliciescarriedoutunderhisdirection.ThestrengtheningofthecentralpartybureaucracyhasenabledthepartytowithstandtheshocksoftheBoXilaicase,thearrestofseniorofficialssuchasZhouandformerCMCvicechairXuCaihou,andtheturmoilgeneratedbythepervasiveanticorruptioncampaign.

TheevolvingpatternofpoliticssuggeststhatthecommonunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweentheGeneralSecretary,PBSCmembers,andthecentralsupportstaffneedstoberefined.GeneralSecretaryXiandPBSCmemberscontinuetoprovideoversightofallpolicywork.ThePBSCmembersalsoplayacriticalroleinhandlingdaytodaydecisionsfortheirrespectiveportfolios.However,thecentralpartybureaucracy,undertheGeneralSecretarysleadership,largelydefinesthedefaultmodeofpolicythroughadensenetworkofmutuallyreinforcingtheory,analysis,andcentraldirectives.PBSCmemberscontinuetoplayanimportantrolethroughparticipationinthecentralleadinggroups,buttheprecisenatureoftheinteractionsremainshiddenfromview.Whatisclearisthattheconsensusforgedthroughallofthisactivity,manifestedmostimportantlyinkeypolicydocumentssuchasspeechesbytheGeneralSecretaryandinPartyCongressreportsandplenumdecisions,playsadecisiveroleinsettingChinaspolicyagenda.AnalysisofsuchdocumentswillthereforelikelycontinuetoprovidethemostreliableinsightsintofuturetrendsofPRCpolicy.

Ironically,justwhenthestudyofChineseofficialdocuments,politicalprocesses,andideologyproducedbythecentralpartybureaucracywasbecomingincreasinglyessentialtounderstandingPRCpolitics,muchoftheChinawatchingcommunityturneditsattentionelsewhere.Theprevailingmodeofanalysisremainsfocusedonthepersonalnetworks,factions,interestgroups,princelingconnections,andindividualbackgroundsofPBSCmembers.SuchresearchhasprovidedfascinatinginsightintothedynamicsofelitepoliticsandreaffirmedtheimportanceofpersonalnetworksinPRCpolitics.ButthismodeofanalysishasprovidedlittleusefulinsightregardingtheprospectsforChinesepolicy.Meanwhile,thefewarticlesthathaveattemptedtotacklekeyPRCpolicydocumentsmerelydemonstratehowmuchthestudyofsuchsourceshasdeteriorated.Oneanalysispublishedin2012dismissedanalysisofPartyCongressreportsasawasteoftime,assertingthatsucheventsserveaslittlemorethananexerciseintedioussloganeeringandinpumpingupthepartyfaithful.ItconcludedthatobserverswouldneedtolookelsewhereforcluesastotheXiadministrationslikelypolicyagenda.Tellingly,thearticleofferednosuggestionastowherethatsuperiorsourceofinsightmightlie.

Nobettersourcehasemerged.Tomoreeffectivelyanticipatepolicydevelopments,observersshoulddeepentheirstudyoftheanalysis,theory,andpolicydocumentsproducedbythecentralsupportstaffandfrequentlyissuedunderXisname.ThegoodnewsisthatmanyofthemostrelevantandusefuldocumentsarewidelyavailableontheInternet.Withcarefulstudyandmasteryofthesesources,analystshavewithintheirgraspthemeanstobetterunderstandPRC

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intentionsregardingstrategyandpolicy.

TimHeathisaseniordefenseandinternationalanalystattheRANDCorporation.HehasoverfifteenyearsofexperienceasaChinaspecialistandistheauthorofthebook,ChinasNewGoverningPartyParadigm:PoliticalRenewalandthePursuitofNationalRejuvenation,publishedbyAshgate(2014).ThisarticlewasfirstpostedintheSinocismnewsletter.