china’s pan-semiconductor industry s pan-semiconductor industry overview allen lu, ph.d...
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China’s Pan-Semiconductor Industry Overview
Allen Lu, Ph.D
President, SEMI China
GSF Shanghai, March. 9, 2012
Outline
• Semiconductor
• PV
• LED & LCD
• SEMI in China
Americas
27%
Taiwan
12%
China
12%
Europe
14%
India
1%
Japan
23%
Korea
9%
Singapore
2%
CHINA 245
Companies
EUROPE 259
Companies
INDIA 15
Companies
JAPAN 435
Companies
KOREA 167
Companies AMERICAS 521
Companies
SINGAPORE 33 Companies
TAIWAN 216
Companies
1,862 Members As of July 2011
Location of SEMI Member HQs
Total Members by Size
Under $5 M
67%$1B - $2B
1%
$500M - $1B
1%
$100M - $500M
3%
Over $2.5B
>1%
$25M - $100M
6%
$5M - $25M
22%
SEMI: The Global Association
SEMI: The Professional Association
• Established in 1970 to serve the semiconductor supply chain.
• Professional Services
– SEMI Standards
– ITRS
– Industry Research and Statistics
– Trade Shows
– Conferences
– Special interest groups (SIG)
March 20-22, 2012
SEMI Industry Platform Semiconductor Emerging Market PV
Global Pan-Semiconductor Industry Scale
Semiconductor FPD
LED
PV
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1 10 100 1000 10000
CA
GR
Revenue ($ Billion) Source: SEMI, 2011
China’s Semiconductor Industry
Real GDP Growth Rates
Source: IHS Global Insight Jan. 2012
Real GDP Measured in 2005 US$
China Electronic Product Output
Source –CVIA, Ministry of Information Industry of China, SEMI, May 2011
Example of China’s Electronic Product Output in 2010
Output
(Million
units)
Growth
Rate
% of World
Output
Export
(Million
units)
Cell
Phone 998 35% 62% 758
Color TV 114.9 16% 47% 66.3
FPD TV 90.9 25% 48% 52.3
Notebook
PC 193.8 19% 93% 185.9
Digital
Camera 109 14% 75% 91.3
10
China IC Market and Forecast
Source：CCID, SEMI China
RMB
Billion
11
Installed Capacity by Region
2011 Capital Equipment Markets:
Europe
10%
Japan
13%
Korea
20%
North
America
20%
Taiwan
20%
China
9%
ROW
8%
Europe
6% Japan
11%
Korea
21%
North
America
15%
Taiwan
28%
China
9%
ROW
10%
2010 Market Billings = $39.5B 2011 Market Billings = $43.8B
Source: SEMI/SEAJ Feb 2012
China IC Import & Export
Source: China Custom
2010 Top Importing Goods in
China
14
Source: China Custom
Fig.: 2010 Importing Goods Value of China
单位：10亿美金
China Government Policies
on Semiconductor Industry
• China economy stimulus program on domestic consumption – Home appliance, infrastructure, …
• 12th five year (2011-2015) plan:
– To 2015 target: double annual China IC sales to RMB 330B, CAGR: 18%
• China National Projects (2006-2020): – Project 01: The CORE of electronic devices, HIGH-END general-
purpose chip, software, systems
– Project 02: VLSI Equipment & Material Manufacture and Process Technology R&D (33B RMB funded so far)
• Regional government’s desire and resource to grow Semiconductor industry
Beijing
Xian
Chengdu
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Leshan
Shanghai
SMIC Fab B1 300 mm
SMIC Fab B2 300 mm
SGNEC Fab 1 150 mm
Legend
Site in production or
ramp Site under construction
* Site equipping
Site in plan
City of population >7M
City of population <7M
Capital
Shenyang
Wuxi
Hynix-Numonyx Fab C1 300 mm
Hynix-Numonyx Fab C2 300 mm
CSMC Fab 1 150 mm
CSMC Fab 2 200 mm
CSMC Fab 5 150 mm Suzhou
Hejian Fab 1 200 mm
Kushan IC Spectrum 200 mm
Anadigics 150 mm
Hangzhou
Silan Fab 2 150 mm
Lion Fab x 150mm
Ningbo BYD Semiconductor
Fab 1 150 mm
Zhuhai ACSMC Fab 1 150 mm
Shenzhen Founder Electronics 150 mm
SMIC Fab 16A/B 300 mm
SMIC Fab 15 200 mm
Xiyue Fab 1 150 mm
ProMOS Fab x 200 mm
CSEC Fab x 150mm
Nantong GMIC Fab 1 200 mm
TI China Fab 200 mm
Dalian
Intel Fab 68 300 mm
Chongqing Wuhan
WXIC Fab 12 300 mm
SMIC Fab 7 200 mm
Tianjin
LPSC Fab 1 150 mm
SMIC Fab 1 200 mm
SMIC Fab 2 200 mm
SMIC Fab 3 Backend
GSMC Fab 1 200 mm
GSMC Fab 2 200 mm
GSMC Fab 3 300 mm
HHNEC Fab 1 200 mm
HHNEC Fab 2 200 mm
HHNEC Fab 1C 200 mm
Huali Fab x 300 mm
ASMC Fab 2 150 mm
ASMC Fab 3 200 mm
ASMC Fab 4 200 mm
BCD Fab 1 150 mm
BCD Fab 2 150 mm
TSMC Fab 10 200 mm
Belling Fab 2 150 mm
SMIC Fab 8 300 mm
SMIC Fab 9 CIS
Leshan
Jiling
Fuzhou
Fushun Microelectronics Fab 2 150 mm
Xiamen Jishun Microelectronics Fab 150mm
JSMC Fab-x 150 mm
Dong Ying Fab X 200 mm
Shangdong
Zheng Zhou Honest Trust
FabX 200 mm
Henan
Henan
Where will be
Samsung’s
12 inch fab?
Semiconductor Wafer Fabs in China
Source: SEMI
12 inch: expansion
ongoing
6~8 inch: Secondary
equipment market
active
Assembly and Testing Plants in China
Intel Chengdu:
one of Intel
biggest P&T
centers
Hitech: P&T for
Hynix DRAM,
start on 2009
Nov.
AMD: announce
to double
Suzhou P&T
house capacity.
CJ-Electronics:
shoot at world
top5 P&T houses
Nantong-Fujitsu:
shoot at world
top 10 P&T
houses
Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Outlook
China IC Industry by Segment
45 82 124 186 226 235 270 364
455
63 181
233
309 398 393 341
447 438
244
283
345
512
628 619 498
629 617
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E)
China IC Industry by Segment (in 100M RMB)
IC design IC Manufacture Packaging & Testing
Source: CISA, SEMI, 2011
China Fab Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E) 2012(F)
China Fab Capacity By Wafer Size (K wpm in 200 mm wafer equivalent)
125mm Capacity
150mm Capacity
200mm Capacity
300mm Capacity
Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Wafer Fab and Foundry Outlook, Dec, 2011
Some of Opportunities for China
• China has to narrow the wide gap between IC consumption and producing
– government and industry mandate
• Leading foundries need to be competitive.
• Fully leverage application market:
– Automobile, analog, power, micro-controller, mobile, RFID, …
– “Virtual IDM”?
• Equipment company growth through PV and LED, move up the value
chain (Project 02).
• Common research platform for technology and IP
• Capture IC Manufacturing move to China
• Re-use fab line for consumer electronics IC (non-leading edge)
Fabs Sold /Closed in 2010
8” NXP Böblingen
8” Altis
8” ST Phoenix
8” Atmel Rousset
8”, 12” Qimonda U.S.
8”, 12” Spansion Japan
8” SMIC Chengdu
12” ProMOS Hsinchu
Fabs Sold /Closed in 2010
8” NXP Böblingen
8” Altis
8” ST Phoenix
8” Atmel Rousset
8”, 12” Qimonda U.S.
8”, 12” Spansion Japan
8” SMIC Chengdu
12” ProMOS Hsinchu
Can China capture next wave of
opportunities => IC fab with global product
partnership?
China’s PV Industry
Global PV Market
• 2011 is another remarkable year for global PV industry.
• Effected by government policies, decreasing price, and invest climate,
global PV installation capacity achieved a new height in 2011. 24
Source: EPIA, SEMI
Japan, 3622
NA, 2727
APEC, 593
China, 893
Rest of World, 1854
Belgium, 803
Czech Republic, 1953
France, 1025
Germany, 17193
Italy, 3494
Spain, 3784
Rest of EU, 1000
EU, 29252
Japan
NA
APEC
China
Rest of World
Belgium
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Rest of EU
Europe Leads Global PV Market
25
2010 Cumulated Global PV Installation Market Share(MW)
• By the end of 2010, EU takes 74% of global cumulative PV installation
capacity.
• Above all, Germany achieved 17GW cumulative capacity by the end of
2010, which takes 43.5% of global total.
Source: EPIA
Global and China PV Cell Manufacturing
26
Global and China Cell Production
• China leads the world since 2007!
Source: SEMI, EPIA, GTM, JPEA, ITRI
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Global 287 374 537 747 1,252 1,793 2,562 4,000 7,656 10,660 17,000
China 3 5 6 12 50 146 438 1,088 2,600 4,011 8,000
Pro
du
ctio
n(M
W)
550
560
600
650
800
800
800
930
1000
1000
1100
1200
1450
1800
1800
Solarfun
E-Ton Solar
Kyocera
SunPower
Sharp
Canadian Solar
Neo Solar
Gintech
Motech
Yingli
Trina
Q-Cells
First Solar
Suntech
JA Solar
225
260
260
326
360
368
398
399
400
509
525
537
595
704
1011
E-Ton Solar
Snayo
Ningbo Solar
Canadian Solar
Motech
Gintech
SunPower
Trina
Kyocera
JA Solar
Yingli
Q-Cells
Sharp
Suntech
First Solar
Global Leading Cell Manufacturers
2009 Shipment (MW) 2010 Year End Capacity (MW)
Data Source：Photon, GTM Research, SEMI
Polysilicon Plants in China
Data Source： SEMI
Monthly PV Products Price
• In 2011, PV products price experienced startling decline, which surprised
everyone.
• Dropping price actually pushed the industry consolidation.
29
Source: SEMI
China PV company
performance
• China PV companies are facing a tough time.
• Since 2011, Increasing shipment did not equal to increasing revenue any
more. 30
Source: Companies report, SEMI
China PV company
performance
• PV manufacturers must deal with new operation issues, other than general
market demand, since great changes in supply chain and market sentiment.
31
Source: Companies report, SEMI
SEMI PV Book to Bill
• The results of SEMI book to bill program indicated great changes in industry
in 2011.
• Q3’11 worldwide PV equipment Book-to-Bill ratio extended last quarter’s
decline to its lowest level since Q1’10. 32
Source: Bundesnetzagentur, SEMI
• Driven by policy and program, installation capacity in China is starting to grow fast since 2009.
• China PV installation takes 2.1% of global in 2009, and about 3.5% in 2010.
• With high sun irradiation and surge in the electricity demand, China is expected to be
one of the major PV market in the future.
33
China PV Installation (2000-2010)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010, SEMI
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Annual 3 11 15 10 9 4 12 20 45 160 500
Accumulated 19 30 45 55 64 68 80 100 145 305 805
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ch
ina I
nst
allati
on
(MW
)Annual Accumulated
China policy
BIPV Program
Golden Sun Program
China PV FiT Policy
China 12th Five-Years Planning
Inspiring PV Target for 2020
34
SEMI recommendation:
China PV Roadmap for 2020
• China clean energy commitment: by year 2020 – To reduce its carbon intensity(CO2 emission per unit of GDP) by 40-45% from the 2005 level
– To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the primary energy use to 15%
• Earlier 2011, SEMI PV Group, SEMI China PV Advisory Committee, and
China PV Industry Alliance released new recommendations for China PV
Roadmap. Using the IEA solar PV roadmap as a benchmark, China will
need to have 60GW installed PV capacity by year 2020, and 269 GW by
year 2030.
35
2010(Actual) 2020 2030
Total Electricity Generation(TWh) 4192 6949 8776
% of PV Electricity <0.5% 1.30% 4.60%
Electricity Generation from
PV(TWh)
<2 90 404
Total Installed PV Capacity(GW) 0.7 60 269
China PV installation
• Benefited by series of China PV application policies, PV installation capacity in
China has shown remarkable growth since 2010.
• PV FiT policy effected much than any other policies and programs in China.
36
Source: SEMI, EPIA
China PV installation
• Benefited by series of China PV application policies, PV installation capacity in
China has shown remarkable growth since 2010.
• PV FiT policy effected much than any other policies and programs in China.
37
Source: SEMI, EPIA
China’s LED Industry
LED Industry Supply Chain
39
LED Fab:
epitaxy growth&
Chip
LED package &Module Application
Systems Substrate
Back-End
PCB
Heat sinks
IC Drivers
Cables…
Upstream
MOCVD,
PECVD, Etch, PVD, Laser scribing
MO Chemicals, Sapphire ,SiC Substrate
….
Middle Process
Plasma cleaning, Wire
bonding, coating..
Lead Frame, Resin
phosphor, Gold/copper
wire
…
Big push in frontend manufacturing to China in the last two years
40
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HB LED Manufacturing Industry Revenue by Application General Lighting Personal Lighting
Projectors Signs and displays
Automotive Cell Phones
Other Displays LCD TV and Monitors
Laptops and Netbooks
Source: Yole; SEMI China ;
Inve
stm
ent
LE
D %
In L
CD
TV
LE
D %
In L
igh
ting
Wo
rld E
co
no
my
• 2011, the global LED Manufacturing Industry had a slight growth, much lower than
expectation .
Global LED Manufacturing Industry
14 National LED Lighting Industry Bases In China
41
“National Semiconductor Lighting Project” Sponsored By MOST (Ministry of Science and Technology )
14 LED lighting industry bases have been built in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Dalian, Nanchang, Xiamen, Yangzhou and Shijiazhuang, Tianjin ,Wuhu, etc. where concentrates most of China LED manufacturers.
Shanghai
Yangzhou
Xiamen
Nanchang
Shenzhen
Shijiazhuang
Dalian
Source: SEMI China, 2011
Dongguan
Tianjin
Hangzhou
Weifang
Changzhou
Wuhan
Xi’an
China’s LED Industry
42
Source: CSA; SEMI China ;
• China LED Industry kept growing in 2011.
811 12 14
1924
3136
41
55
69 76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
China LED Fabs Quantity
Source: SEMI China
LED wafer and Chip Fabs Qty. in China
(2000-2011l)
• By end of 2011,there are 76 LED Fabs in China totally.
• The new LED fab construction in China will slow down after 2011, even some LED Fabs will disappear.
MOCVD Tool Shipment
44
MOCVD Shipment
2010
MOCVD Shipment
2011F
Source: SEMI China ,2011;
Korea 36%
Taiwan 32%
China 23%
Japan 5%
NA&Europe 4%
China , 51%
ROW, 49%
• In 2011, over 50% MOCVD will be shipped to China.
• New MOCVD installation slow down in other regions in 2011 .
45
MOCVD Shipment to
China
• MOCVD shipment in China hit the maximum in 2011, and will slow down in next 2 yrs.
• After 2013, MOCVD installation in China will show a visible growth. Source:; SEMI China ;
China Sapphire Substrate Industry
46
14+ New Sapphire projects announced in 2011
Company Description
Guizhou Haotian
Opto.
Total investment: US$ 303million
Has ordered US$ 218million equipment form GT
Solar
Planned capacity: 30,000K piece/yr
Ouya Lanbao
1st stage l investment: US$ 30.3 million
1st stage capacity: 1,200K piece/yr
Total investment: US$ 75.7million
Planned capacity by 2015: 4,000K piece/yr
East Crystal
Electronic
Total investment: US$,182million
Planned capacity: 7,500K piece/yr
Crystal-Optech Total investment: US$,49.2million
Planned capacity: 3,600K piece/yr
Kanglan Opto. Total investment: US$,303million
Planned capacity: 12,000K piece/yr
Ruijing Opto. Total investment:US$,68million
High Accurate Drive Planned capacity: 5,000K piece/yr
Jingqiao Opto. Total investment: US$,227 million with 3 stages.
SKT Planned capacity: 6,400K piece/yr by 2012
Jiangsu Jixing Total investment: US$ 160 million
Planned capacity: 5,000K piece/yr
And more…..
Source: SEMI China ,;
(US$)
China’s TFT /LCD Industry
48
China: The Biggest LCD Market
• China is the biggest manufacturing base of LCD TV, PC, monitor, DC, Mobile…huge demands for LCD panels.
• China will be the biggest consumptive market for LCD TV in 2011.
• “Electronics Subsidy Program” activates the demand of LCD TV market in countryside ,which is very big market with high potential.
Source:Displaysearch
Fig.: WW LCD TV Market
• Beijing: BOE-B1 G5; BOE-B4 G8
• Suzhou: Samsung G7.5 (Approved)
• Kunshan:
• IVO G5, AUO (Kunshan) G7.5
• Nanjing:
CEC-Panda G6;CEC-Sharp G8
• Chengdu:
BOE-B2 G4.5;Chengdu Tianma G4.5,
Foxconn G8.5
• Shanghai:
CAOE (pre-SVA-NEC) G5,
Shanghai Tianma G4.5
• Guangzhou: LGD G8.5 (Approved)
• Shanwei: Truly G2.5
• Heyuan: Yazhi G2.5 & G3.5
• Shenzhen:
Century G5, CSOT (TCL) G8.5
• Wuhan: Wuhan Tianma G4.5
• Hefei: BOE-B3 G6; BOE-B5 G8
Note: Red ones have not got the approval of China
central government
China Existing & Announced LCD Fab Plants
Source: SEMI China,2010;
TFT-LCD Fab capacity is moving into China mainland, the TFT-LCD industry is speeding up!
50
China TFT-LCD Capacity Forecast by Generation
0% 0% 1%10% 8%
16% 18% 14% 11% 9%
100% 100% 99%90% 92%
83%
60%
46%
35%28%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
15%
19%
15%
12%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0%
1%
8%
12%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%8%
20%30%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
G4.5 G5 G6 G7.5 G8.5
Source: SEMI, 2011
Fig: China TFT LCD Fab Capacity Share by Gen.
China
The only region in the world, with all “pan-
semiconductor” sectors:
– having large industry base
– continue the dynamic growth.
51
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3/17/2012 Customer Satisfaction Study 53
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