chinese graduate students in the us: the increasing lure of the economic boom back home?

Chinese Graduate Students in the US: The Increasing Lure of the Economic Boom Back Home?

51st International Studies Association Annual Conference

February 18, 2010

Ryan P. Kellogg

UCLA Anderson School of Management

Study Background

•In 1966, 78% of S&E PhD recipients were American citizens, in 2003 it was 62%

•Foreign students in represent ~60% of engineering doctorates awarded in the US annually

Growing representation

•Above average contributors in patents awarded, papers published, and setting up new enterprises

•Foreign-born researchers account for 1/3 of Nobel prizes awarded

Highly accomplished

•98,000 PRC students were attending American universities in 2008/9

•Single largest source of foreign-born doctorate level S&E

Large Chinese representation

Foreign scholars play a critical role in US Science and Engineering (S&E) research

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Agricultural sciences

Biological sciences

Computer sciences

Earth, atmospheric, ocean sciences

Mathematics

Physical sciences

Engineering

Non-science and engineering

Percent of Total Doctorates Awarded

Non-U.S. citizens' share of doctorates awarded, by field of study: 2006

Qi Lu, Doctorate at Carnegie Mellon and current executive in charge of Microsoft’s Bing search engine.

Photo Source: The Economist, 2/4/10

Source: NSF

Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work

Study BackgroundRecent reports seem to indicate an increase in Chinese returnees


• Increases of returnees in the 1990s and following the dot com crash of the early 2000s were the result of improved incentives

• Recent reports seem to indicate that the financial crisis in Western nations may drive this return rate higher

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Rates of Return of Chinese Graduate Students, 1985-2007

Total returnees Returnees as share of total grads

This study looks for evidence of this rising trend in returnees for Chinese S&E graduate students in the US

US Recessions

Source: Chinese Statistical Yearbook, 2008

Previous StudiesIntention to return seems to be rising…

Study AuthorsYear of Survey Sample size (N)

% indicating they would return

Zhang 1992 500 58%

Zweig and Chen 1993 273 33%

Kellogg 2005 185 45%

Wadwha 2007 229* 58%

* Indicates number of PRC and Hong Kong citizens reached in survey

• Some notes:• Figures from Zhang taken before Tiananmen and changes in US visa policy

(June 4th Green Card)• Differences in phrasing of questioning between surveys could have an

impact• Wadhwa et al. survey had higher portion of non-PhD students


Previous Studies….but actual return rates are low and have held steady

1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020%

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% S&E Doctorate Recipients in US after 5 years

Chinese Citizens All non-US citizens

Year of Doctorial Completion

• Finn’s study shows Chinese S&E doctorates to have the highest stay rates of any foreign student based on IRS tax return filings

• 10-year stay rates also remain high and ‘brain circulation’ seems minimal

Stated intentions to return prior to the completion of their dissertation are largely unrealized by graduation, but why?


Source: Finn, 2010

Previous Studies

What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions?


• Gender• Presence of family (spouse/children) outside

the US* • Parent’s attitudes towards migration decision*• Returnee networks

Social Networks

• Political freedom and stability• Nationalist sentiments* • Visa worries*• Anti-Americanism

Political Dynamic

• Housing quality*• Income*• Career opportunities*• Entrepreneurial talents and access to

technology

Career and Economic Factors

There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear

* Studies from the past 10 years have indicated significant relationship with intention to return (p<0.1)

Ongoing Work: Using Conjoint Analysis

The job search process seems to be the critical driving force behind migration decisions


Conjoint analysis eliminates the problem that ‘everything’ is important by revealing the true preferences of the individual

• Current study seeks to simulate the actual job decision process for S&E PhDs and postdocs

• Conjoint analysis, a marketing research tool, is used to force respondents to make choices between various competing factors

• This method has been used widely beyond marketing, and been found effective for predicting preferences of job candidates

Ongoing Work

The following proposed hypotheses will be tested using this approach


• Hypothesis #1:• Chinese S&E graduate students and postdoctoral scholars do not return

home in percentages equal to their stated intention because the marginal utility of returning to the PRC versus staying in the US cannot be provided by the current salaries offered by the Chinese labor market

• Hypothesis #2:• Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home will

score higher on the national pride index

• Hypothesis #3:• Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home are

more likely to have a business already or a strong interest in starting a business

Ongoing Work: Methodology


• Consists of 15 questions based on factors from previous studies (e.g. Family, entrepreneurial leanings, nationalism)

• Nationalism questions based on University of Chicago longitudinal study on national pride (Smith and Kim, 2006)

Demographics and Attitudinal

• Consists of two main parts: Pairwise comparison and Individual ranking of 25 different job options

• Job profiles vary based on location, proximity to family, job title, employer, and annual salary

Conjoint Analysis Exercises

• 388 S&E PhD candidates and post-docs at UCLA were contacted to participate in online survey after extensive focus group testing

• Current response rate: ~40%

Population



• Job offer attributes and levels were generated with the help of Robert Zeithammer, a marketing professor at UCLA Anderson

• Profiles generated to ensure balance (each level of each attribute should appear the same # of times) and orthogonality (attributes should be combined independently)

Conjoint questions consist of different attributes and levels

ProfileJob location

(Nation)Job location

(Region) Hometown Employer Job Title Annual SalaryCollected Preference

(0-100)1 China Coastal No Public Lab Director $45,000 652 China Coastal No Private R&D Manager $20,000 253 China Coastal No Private Research Engineer $70,000 754 US Coastal No Public R&D Manager $20,000 155 China Central Yes Private Lab Director $120,000 1006 China Central Yes Public R&D Manager $70,000 857 China Central Yes Public Lab Director $20,000 558 US Central No Public Research Engineer $45,000 40

Job profiles

Attributes

Scholars’ measured preference

24 China Central Yes Public R&D Manager $30,000 5525 US Coastal No Private Research Engineer $85,000 70

···

···

···

Job Location: Nation Job Location: Region Hometown Employer Annual Salary

ProfileCollected Preference

(0-100) US Central Yes Public R&D Manager Lab Director Salary1 65 0 0 0 1 0 1 45,000$ 2 25 0 0 0 0 1 0 20,000$ 3 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 70,000$ 4 15 1 0 0 1 1 0 20,000$ 5 100 0 1 1 0 0 1 120,000$ 6 85 0 1 1 1 1 0 70,000$ 7 55 0 1 1 1 0 1 20,000$ 8 40 1 1 0 1 0 0 45,000$

Job Title

Y X

Step 1: Collection of data

Step 2: Dummy coding and regression

Respondents’ ratings of each job profile are coded to allow regression to be run for the dependent variable (Y) and independent variables (X)

PartworthsChina 14.26

US 0.00Coastal 12.04Central 0.00

Hometown, Yes 14.42Hometown, No 0.00

Public 6.84Private 0.00

R&D Engineer 0.00R&D Manager 0.00Lab Director 4.61

Salary 73.36

Marginal utilities generated with coefficients from multiple regression

Regression Statistics

Multiple R R Square Adj.RSqr Std.Err. # Cases0.950089025 0.902669155 0.845892828 10.965127 20

Summary Table

Variable Coeff. Std.Err. t Stat. P-valueIntercept 16.05 12.35 1.30 0.22Central -12.04 6.38 -1.89 0.08

Lab_Director 4.61 7.46 0.62 0.55Public 6.84 7.00 0.98 0.35

R_D_Manager -0.01 7.74 0.00 1.00Salary 0.00073 0.00 6.01 0.00

US -14.26 6.05 -2.36 0.04Yes 14.42 6.45 2.24 0.04

Attribute Best Partworth Importance WeightJob location(Nation) 14.26 11%Job location(Region) 12.04 10%

Hometown 14.42 11%Employer 6.84 5%Job Title 4.61 4%

Annual Salary 73.36 58%Total 125.53 100%

363,1$036.73

000,20$000,120$$

utileper

So in this example, the respondent would be willing to give up $19,500 in annual salary in order to work in China rather than the US ($1363 x 14.26)

Step 3: Translate regression coefficients into marginal utilities (partworths)

Step 4: Partworths can be used to calculate importance weights and monetize preferences

Using the results from the regression to determine the partworths (marginal utility) for each attribute allows for the relative importance to be determined, as well as estimate the value respondents place on one attribute over another

The Way Forward


• Finalize survey data collection in March for UCLA, possible expansion to two more universities for comparative purposes

• Analyze individual responses and utility functions Determine unique ‘exchange rate’ for each respondent

• Determine how results differ using demographic and attitudinal questions• Are entrepreneurs, high scorers on nationalism questions, family

back home more willing to ‘give up’ higher salaries in the US to return home?

Thank You

14

Q&A

Appendix

Agenda


Background Past surveys of Chinese students in the US

Factors shaping migratory decisions

Hypotheses

Methodology

Way Forward


Previous StudiesSeveral surveys of Chinese students in the US have been carried out in the past 20 years


• Focus is on those studies that looked at the stated intention to return, a useful indicator for future migration decisions (Alzen and Fishbein, 1980; Li et al., 1996)• Zhang, 1992: Explored effects of post-Tiananmen politics on

return rates• Zweig and Chen, 1995: In depth study on the causes and

consequences of Chinese brain drain to the US• Kellogg, 2006: Looked at the impact of 9/11 on students stated

intention to return and influences of nationalism• Wadhwa et al., 2009: Attempts to substantiate reports during the

financial crisis that foreign students in the US believe better opportunities lie elsewhere

Previous Studies



• Concerns about political freedom and stability featured strongly in many older studies (Huang, 1988; Zhang, 1992; Zweig and Chen, 1995)

• Higher expressions of nationalist belief, as expressed by greater agreement with the Chinese government on select policies and a desire to give back to their country, was shown to be correlated with higher intentions to return (Kellogg, 2006)

• While the visa worries have lessened since Congressional reforms, obtaining a work visa remains a significant concern

• Anti-Americanism does not appear to have a significant impact (Kellogg, 2006; Wadhwa et al., 2009)

• Gender had a significant impact on returning in Zweig and Chen’s study, but by 2005 this was no longer a clear differentiator

• Presence of family (spouse/children) outside the US and parent’s attitudes towards returning also found to be significant (Zweig and Chen, 1995; Kellogg, 2006)

• Returnee networks and difficulty in transitioning back to a guanxi-based professional environment also cited(Chen, 2006; )

Social Networks

Political Dynamic

Previous Studies



• Zweig and Chen’s survey showed differences in economic indicators based on the presence of children. Housing quality for those with children and income and overall economic wellbeing for those without children were significant.

• Appealing career opportunities were found to be important in numerous studies, which included aspects like job title, salary, and autonomy in research

• Belief that the US offered better career opportunities went from 50% (Kellogg, 2006) to 27% (Wadhwa et al., 2009) showing the impact of the economic downturn

• Individuals with entrepreneurial talents and access to technology unavailable in Chinese markets have numerous incentives to return (Zweig et al., 2006)

Career and Economic Factors

There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear



Nationalism questions look at both general and domain specific national pride

Source: Smith, Tom and Seokho Kim. (2006). World Opinion: National Pride in Comparative Perspective: 1995/96 and 2003/4. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 18(1) :127-135.

Ongoing Work: Preliminary Results


Definitely will go back and have made arrangements to do so

Definitely will go back, but don't know when

Probably will go back and have kept up strong ties with China

Probably will go back but have not kept up ties

Not very likely to go back, but might go if things changed in China greatly

Definitely will not go back

Can't really say now

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11% 2010 (Prelim)20051993

chinese graduate students in the us: the increasing lure of the economic boom back home?

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