chinook stock monitoring: spawning surveys, escapement estimates and forecasts
DESCRIPTION
Jame Losee's presentation at the 2014 Nisqually Annual Program ReviewTRANSCRIPT
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Chinook Stock MonitoringSpawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts
James P. Losee, Larry PhillipsWDFW
Craig Smith, Nano Perez NIT
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Spawning surveys-objective
▫Estimate weir efficiency▫Estimate escapement
Total abundance Sex ratios Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin
▫Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status)▫Habitat monitoring
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Weekly sampling (7-10 days)
•Raft and Foot
•August 28-October 29
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Spawning surveys-methods
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
• Live▫Mark status▫Sex
•Dead▫Species, Length, Sex▫Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags▫Biological Data
fin clip (genetic stock ID) otoliths (habitat use) scales (age composition) GPS and egg retention
•Redd mark and record location
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Spawning surveys-methods
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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12.5 (Weir)
39.2 (Mashel R.)
26.2
21.6 (McKenna)
3.2 (Riverbend Campground)
6.6 (Eatonville)
Nisqually Watershed
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Mckenna to weir: 11, 3UMNB, 8AD NB26-mckenna: 4, UMNB, 1 prespawnMuck: 37, 3 UMNB, 34 HatcheryAnimate in Jaw taggedYelm creek , 34 hatchery 6 no
Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
30
11
4
12 131
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses
12.5 (Weir)
43%88%
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
8Add other carcass locations +jaw tag
Jaw Tag Recoveries
12.5 (Weir)
22% of non-marked fish recovered above weir were jaw tagged.
5 jaw tags of 23 non marked carcasses above weir
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986) ▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D)
•Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982)▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in
fishery-%marked at weir)▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata)
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WeirFishery Hatchery
Escapement Estimates
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates
6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak)
Return Year
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Es
cap
emen
t E
stim
ate
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural OriginChange-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035
Traditional 245 134 111
Change-in-Ratio
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Estimation of sport catch
•Creel Survey Data▫CWT recoveries▫Mark vs. Unmark (retained and
released)▫Age composition (scales)▫Genetic Stock ID (tissue samples)
•Catch Record Card Data▫Species retained▫Mark status
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Forecasting 201412
Brood Year # Fry Released Survival1996 4,395,000 0.86%1997 3,257,000 0.18%1998 3,319,476 0.97%1999 4,276,895 0.75%2000 3,275,907 0.83%2001 4,097,466 0.39%2002 3,514,024 0.96%2003 4,166,184 0.75%2004 3,443,874 1.21%2005 3,876,056 0.52%2006 4,376,957 0.43%2007 4,322,815 1.40%2008 4,297,982 0.40%
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% R
etu
rn (
surv
ival
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
VoightsMinter CreekDeschutes R.Nisqually R.White River Spring
Forecasting 2014
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Forecasting 2014
Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total 2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 2252010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 158972011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361
Total 29,630 1,852 31,482
2014 Forecast=31,482
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Escapement Method Total EscapementLive Counts 815, 887
Weir Counts 818, 961
Nisqually Pink Salmon
17,305
987, 547Nisqually River Pink Salmon
Total Runsize
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
30
11
4
12 131
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Continue to monitor the effect of the weir.
•Improve escapement estimate with weir counts.
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Future Directions
Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Questions?
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