chlorophyll concentrations along the west florida shelf · st. petersburg, fl 33701 e-mail:...

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Vol. 11, No. 3 March 2001 E ARTH S YSTEM M ONITOR A guide to NOAA's data and information services INSIDE 3 News briefs 5 Monitoring estuarine water quality at the South Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve 12 Marine reserve design for Florida’s Tortugas region 14 Open invitation extended to the GOES Users’ Conference 15 Data products and services Chlorophyll concentrations along the West Florida shelf D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E U N I T E D S T A T E S O F A M E R I C A Figure 1. ECOHAB stations along the West Florida Shelf. Lisa A. Vanderbloemen Florida Marine Research Institute University of South Florida Frank Muller-Karger College of Marine Science University of South Florida Analysis of temporal variability using remote sensing Remote Sensing Laboratory College of Marine Science University of South Florida 140 7th Avenue, South St. Petersburg, FL 33701 E-mail: lisavan@carbon. marine.usf.edu Several studies have demonstrated that the temporal and spatial patterns in chlorophyll concentrations in the deep Gulf of Mexico are dominated by a strong seasonal cycle and anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Os- cillation events (Muller-Karger et al, 1991; Gilbes, 1996; Melo et al, 2000). Very little, however, is known about how chlorophyll varies on the West Florida Shelf (WFL). Winds, currents, and nutrient inputs from rivers, as well as aeolian sources have all been identified as factors that influence phytoplankton on this shelf (Lenes et al, 2001 in press), but their impact on phyto- plankton communities remains unclear. In recent years, several programs have col- lected in situ data on the WFL over limited spa- tial domains. Satellite data complements these programs with synoptic coverage. Sun-synchro- nous polar orbiting satellites such as NOAA’s AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radi- ometer) and Orbimage’s SeaWiFS (Sea-Wide Field- of-view sensor) offer daily sea surface tempera- ture and ocean color data, respectively, for the entire WFL region. These sensors are a unique source of time series in- formation. The focus of the ECOHAB program (Ecol- ogy and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms) in Florida is to gain a better understanding of red tides and their un- derlying causes. Satellite data are currently being analyzed for identifying blooms of the major algal contributor, Gymnodinium breve (Brown, 1998). Identifying G. breve blooms may lead to the prediction and ultimate management of harmful algal bloom events. In situ chlorophyll, pigment (HPLC), and other oceanographic data have been collected on a monthly basis along the WFL shelf as part of the ECOHAB program since 1997. Contributors include the University of South Florida, North Carolina State University, University of North Carolina, Mote Marine Laboratory, Florida Marine Research Institute, NOAA, EPA, and USDA. Monthly cruises are conducted along an established grid of stations in coastal waters adja- cent to Tampa Bay, resulting in a comprehensive collection of biological, chemical, and physical oceanographic data for the ECOHAB region (Figure 1). The in situ chlorophyll data were averaged for each monthly cruise (3-5 days duration) and compared with monthly averages of the SeaWiFS data at the station locations for 1997-2000. These comparisons reveal that, in general, the mean chlorophyll-a values derived from SeaWiFS — continued on page 2 16 Spring weather outlook

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Page 1: Chlorophyll concentrations along the West Florida shelf · St. Petersburg, FL 33701 E-mail: lisavan@carbon. marine.usf.edu Several studies have demonstrated that the temporal and

U.S. DEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE

National Oceanicand AtmosphericAdministration

Vol. 11, No. 3 ● March 2001

EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

A guide toNOAA's data and

informationservices

INSIDE

3News briefs

5Monitoring estuarinewater quality at the

South Slough NationalEstuarine Research

Reserve

12Marine reserve designfor Florida’s Tortugas

region

14Open invitation

extended to the GOESUsers’ Conference

15Data products and

services

Chlorophyll concentrations along theWest Florida shelf

DEP

ARTMENT OF COMMERC

E

★ ★

UN

ITEDSTATES OF AMER

ICA

▲ Figure 1. ECOHAB stations along the West Florida Shelf.

Lisa A. VanderbloemenFlorida Marine Research InstituteUniversity of South Florida

Frank Muller-KargerCollege of Marine ScienceUniversity of South Florida

Analysis of temporal variability using remote sensing

Remote Sensing LaboratoryCollege of Marine ScienceUniversity of South Florida140 7th Avenue, SouthSt. Petersburg, FL 33701E-mail: [email protected]

Several studies have demonstrated that thetemporal and spatial patterns in chlorophyllconcentrations in the deep Gulf of Mexico aredominated by a strong seasonal cycle andanomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Os-cillation events (Muller-Karger et al, 1991; Gilbes,1996; Melo et al, 2000). Very little, however, isknown about how chlorophyll varies on theWest Florida Shelf (WFL). Winds, currents, andnutrient inputs from rivers, as well as aeoliansources have all been identified as factors thatinfluence phytoplankton on this shelf (Lenes etal, 2001 in press), but their impact on phyto-plankton communities remains unclear.

In recent years, several programs have col-lected in situ data on the WFL over limited spa-tial domains. Satellite data complements theseprograms with synoptic coverage. Sun-synchro-nous polar orbiting satellites such as NOAA’sAVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radi-ometer) and Orbimage’sSeaWiFS (Sea-Wide Field-of-view sensor) offerdaily sea surface tempera-ture and ocean colordata, respectively, for theentire WFL region. Thesesensors are a uniquesource of time series in-formation.

The focus of theECOHAB program (Ecol-ogy and Oceanographyof Harmful Algal Blooms)in Florida is to gain a

better understanding of red tides and their un-derlying causes. Satellite data are currently beinganalyzed for identifying blooms of the majoralgal contributor, Gymnodinium breve (Brown,1998). Identifying G. breve blooms may lead tothe prediction and ultimate management ofharmful algal bloom events.

In situ chlorophyll, pigment (HPLC), andother oceanographic data have been collected ona monthly basis along the WFL shelf as part ofthe ECOHAB program since 1997. Contributorsinclude the University of South Florida, NorthCarolina State University, University of NorthCarolina, Mote Marine Laboratory, FloridaMarine Research Institute, NOAA, EPA, andUSDA. Monthly cruises are conducted along anestablished grid of stations in coastal waters adja-cent to Tampa Bay, resulting in a comprehensivecollection of biological, chemical, and physicaloceanographic data for the ECOHAB region(Figure 1).

The in situ chlorophyll data were averagedfor each monthly cruise (3-5 days duration) andcompared with monthly averages of the SeaWiFSdata at the station locations for 1997-2000.These comparisons reveal that, in general, themean chlorophyll-a values derived from SeaWiFS

— continued on page 2

16Spring weather

outlook

Page 2: Chlorophyll concentrations along the West Florida shelf · St. Petersburg, FL 33701 E-mail: lisavan@carbon. marine.usf.edu Several studies have demonstrated that the temporal and

2 March 2001EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

The Earth System Monitor (ISSN 1068-2678) is published quarterly by the NOAAEnvironmental Information Services office.Past issues are available online at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/General/NODCPubs/

Questions, comments, or suggestions forarticles, as well as requests for subscrip-tions and changes of address, should bedirected to the Editor, Roger Torstenson.

The mailing address for the Earth SystemMonitor is:

National Oceanographic Data CenterNOAA/NESDIS E/OC1SSMC3, 4th Floor1315 East-West HighwaySilver Spring, MD 20910-3282

EDITORR. Torstenson

Telephone: 301-713-3281 ext.107Fax: 301-713-3302

E-mail: [email protected]

DISCLAIMERMention in the Earth System Monitor ofcommercial companies or commercialproducts does not constitute an endorse-ment or recommendation by the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administrationor the U.S. Department of Commerce.Use for publicity or advertising purposes ofinformation published in the Earth SystemMonitor concerning proprietary productsor the tests of such products is notauthorized.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEDonald Evans, Secretary

National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration

Scott Gudes,Acting Under Secretary and Administrator

NA

TIO

NA

LO

CEA

NICAND ATMOSPHERIC

ADMIN

IST

RA

TIO

N

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMER

CE

Chlorophyll, from page 1

▲ Figure 2. Monthly SeaWiFS chlor-a versus in situ chlorophyll dataacquired during monthly ECOHAB cruises.

overestimate concentrations measuredin situ during the first half of the year.During the second half of 1999, thesatellite data underestimated in situvalues, particularly during October1999 (Figure 2).

During the first week of October1999, the ECOHAB data exceeded theSeaWiFS data by a factor of three, par-ticularly in offshore waters deeper than30 m. At nearshore stations with watersshallower than 30 m, SeaWiFS dataoverestimated the in situ observationsthroughout the remainder of the obser-vation period (Figure 3).

During October 1999 there wereelevated counts (>5000 cells/ml) of G.breve within the ECOHAB region possi-bly contributing to the disagreementbetween the SeaWiFS and in situ resultsduring this period.

The good agreement between theSeaWiFS and in situ data suggested aseasonal chlorophyll pattern within theECOHAB region (27-29° N, 82-82° W)of the WFL shelf, with peaks occurringduring the winter months. Additionalresearch is ongoing to examine thetemporal and spatial patterns along theWFL shelf outside of the ECOHAB re-gion from 1997-2000. Preliminary re-

sults indicate that in regions dominatedby river influences the largest peaksoccurred offshore (>30m) during thespring, while in regions not stronglyinfluenced by rivers the largest peaksoccurred inshore (<30m) during thewinter months. These results suggestthat rivers play a role in the spatial andtemporal chlorophyll patterns but re-search is ongoing at USF to examinethis further.

Ocean color satellite data is alsobeing evaluated for its usefulness in thedetection of blooms of such other im-portant phytoplankton as Trichodes-mium, nitrogen fixers that on occasionform large blooms within the Gulf ofMexico. Studies at the University ofSouth Florida seek to develop algo-rithms that can be used for detectingboth G. breve and Trichodesmium withinthe Gulf of Mexico using satellite data.

AVHRR sea surface temperature(SST) satellite data is also useful instudying and analyzing bloom develop-ment and movement. Eddies and frontsare readily detectable in AVHRR imag-ery thus indicating patterns of watermovement and aiding in bloom detec-tion.

— continued on page 4

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3March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

News briefsNCDC reports on weather andclimate events

The National Climatic Data Centerhas released three reports concerningweather and climate events: 1) a reporton U.S. and global significant events of2000; 2) Technical Report 2000-03 de-scribing the 1999 hurricane season indetail, with numerous satellite imageincluded; and 3) an update of the BillionDollar Weather Disaster report for 1980-2000. The report on 2000 U.S. and globalevents is part of an overall report on theclimate of 2000.

The report on the 1999 hurricaneseason, though delayed from previoussuch reports, includes information from aNational Weather Service report on Hurri-cane Floyd, along with rainfall data fromfour land-falling storms. The updatedBillion Dollar Disaster report includes thelatest figures on the two events for 2000— over $2 billion in losses and costs fromthe western fire season and over $4 bil-lion in agricultural and related losses dueto drought across the southern and cen-tral states. All reports are accessible via:http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes.html.

NOAA-wide metadata workshopMetadata experts from all NOAA line

offices gathered for a workshop, in earlyFebruary, at the National GeophysicalData Center. They discussed benefits andproblems of applying the FGDC (FederalGeographic Data Committee) MetadataContent Standard to NOAA data, meta-data processing for the NOAA Server, andvarious metadata management tech-niques. The workshop was also attendedby a representative of Blue Angel Tech-nologies, a leading developer of metadatamanagement and access tools. Thesetools were described to the group anddemonstrated using NOAA metadata.

NOAA data appears in U.S. News &World Report

A map produced by NGDC’s PaulaDunbar and David Anderson appeared ina January cover story of U.S. News &World Report. The science article reportson recent advances in studies of humanevolution and early migrations around theworld. The map, based on data distrib-uted by NOAA, depicts shorelines of65,000 years ago and reveals land bridgesthought to be instrumental in humanmigration.

The Maya civilization anddrought

The NOAA/NGDC PaleoclimatologyProgram has archived new chemicaltracer data from lake sediments in theYucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Publishedby Hodell et al, in Nature, these data havebeen used to reconstruct the precipita-tion/evaporation ratio in Lake Chichan-canab as a proxy for drought. Resultsindicate major drought in the period be-tween 800 and 900 A.D., correspondingto the collapse of the Classic Maya civili-zation. The data and research summaryare on the Paleoclimatology Programwebsite at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_mayan.html. Due tothe interest in this topic, the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program hasbeen working with Dr. Hodell, of theUniversity of Florida, to prepare an educa-tional slide set on this topic that will bereleased later this year.

Paleoclimatology discussion listNOAA’s National Geophysical Data

Center Paleoclimatology Program haslaunched an International PaleoclimateList-Server. This list-server provides aforum for Internet discussions and an-nouncements among paleoclimatologiststhroughout the world. Of primary em-phasis are periods of the recent pastwhere data from the paleoclimatic recordare of particular value to the modernclimate community. Within the first fivedays of operation, the list-server had 626members from a total of 40 countries.General topics that the list will focus onwill include the availability of new proxyand historical data, national and interna-tional programs and program news, fund-ing and employment opportunities, andrecent reports on paleoclimate research.More information about the list can beobtained at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/listserve.html.

Stuart Little 2A film producer recently contacted

the NCDC to obtain climatic data regard-ing selected cities in the northeasternUnited States. He is comparing climaticnormals for different cities to determinethe most desirable place for the upcom-ing Stuart Little 2 feature film.

Lockwood Seamount imageryThe National Geophysical Data Cen-

ter has prepared a triplet of images show-ing the location and topography, incontour and color-shaded relief, ofLockwood Seamount. Named forMillington Lockwood, of the NationalOcean Service (NOS), it honors hismemory as the interagency facilitator ofmany productive efforts. It is a fittingtribute to Millington, who among hismyriad activities, headed the Joint OceanMapping and Research Office (a com-bined venture of NOAA and the UnitedStates Geological Survey), was active inthe Defense Hydrographic Initiative (acooperative project of NOAA, the Na-tional Imagery and Mapping Agency, andthe U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office toshare developments and technologies),and spearheaded several Federal Geo-graphic Data Committee efforts to stan-dardize Geographic Information Systemdata, metadata, and interchange. Theimages were forwarded to the NationalOcean Service for presentation to theLockwood family and for permanent dis-play at NOS in Silver Spring, Maryland.

Climate and health proposalDr. Earle Buckley from the NOAA

Coastal Services Center, visited the NCDCto discuss a joint proposal for the Officeof Global Programs (OGP) titled ”Devel-oping a Predictive Capability of the Influ-ence of Weather and Climate UponHuman Health in Coastal Regions of theU.S.” Dr. Buckley is one of the principalinvestigators of an interdisciplinary teamcomprised of members from ten aca-demic and eight governmental organiza-tions. A pre-proposal has been submittedto the Office of Global Programs and afull proposal is being prepared for submis-sion in April. Dr. Buckley and NCDC per-sonnel discussed the scope of NCDC’sinvolvement in the project and what cli-matic data could be used. The projectteam will identify specific applicationsthat will be part of regionally focusedpilot projects which will allow NCDC toidentify specific data sets and products.Dr. Buckley felt the visit was extremelybeneficial in that it allowed him to gain abetter understanding of the volume andtype of data that will be needed for theproject. A project web page will also bedeveloped so that information such asreferences and links can be shared.

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4 March 2001EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

Chlorophyll, from page 2

▲ Figure 3. SeaWiFS chlorophyll 1997-2000 time series for inshore and offshore sub-regions versus Ecohab in-situ data.

The MODIS (Moderate ResolutionImaging Spectroradiometer) instrumentcombines the capabilities of both theAVHRR and the SeaWiFS into one sen-sor, currently being flown on the morn-ing (10:30 am) Terra satellite. A secondMODIS will be flown on the afternoon(1:30 pm) Aqua satellite. Aqua is sched-uled to be launched in late 2001 orearly 2002.

MODIS, SeaWiFS, and AVHRR dataare available on a daily basis from theUniversity of South Florida’s RemoteSensing Laboratory where data are cap-tured 1-2 times daily with tandem X-band and L-band antennas located inSt. Petersburg, Florida. While MODISand AVHRR data are openly available toall users, SeaWiFS data are restricted toNASA authorized users only. To becomea SeaWiFS authorized user one mustapply to the NASA SeaWiFS Project (seehttp://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov).

The Remote Sensing Laboratory atthe University of South Florida is work-ing closely with the Florida MarineResearch Institute to develop applica-tions of remote sensing tools to solve

coastal issues. This includes new atmo-spheric correction and bio-optical algo-rithms (Hu et al, 2000; Del Castillo et al,2000; Lee et al, 1998). This work willhave wide benefits for coastal resourcemanagers in this region.

As technology continues to im-prove and sensors with greater spectraland spatial resolution are developed,remote sensing will become a standardtool in chlorophyll research withincoastal environments. Future researchwill focus on developing remote sens-ing algorithms to differentiate betweenphytoplankton species and thereforeidentify harmful algal blooms. Remotesensing will also be used to ascertainthe environmental conditions and un-derlying factors responsible for bloominitiation, making bloom prediction areality.

Efforts are also underway to com-bine research efforts in these areas be-tween academia and governmentagencies. Researchers at the Universityof South Florida, Florida Marine Insti-tute, NOAA, and USGS are workingtogether to reach the goals outlinedabove.

ReferencesBrown, Chris. 1998. Detecting Blooms of the

Dinoflagellate Gymnodinium breve fromSpace. Http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/orad2/doc/gbreve.html.

Del Castillo, C.E., F. Gilbes, and P.G. Coble.2000. On the dispersal of riverine coloreddissolved organic matter over the WestFlorida Shelf. Limnol. Oceanography, 45:1425-1432.

Gilbes, Fernando, Carmelo Thomas, John J.Walsh, and Frank E. Muller-Karger. 1996.An episodic chlorophyll plume on theWest Florida Shelf. Continental ShelfResearch, 16: 1201-1224.

Hu, Chuanmin, K.L. Carder, and F.E. Muller-Karger . 2000. Atmospheris correction ofSeaWiFS imagery over turbid coastalwaters: a practical method. Remote Sens.Environ, 74: 195-206.

Lee, Zhongping,, K.L. Carder, C.D. Mobley,R.G. Steward, and J.S. Patch. 1998.Hyperspectral remote sensing for shallowwaters. I. A semianalytical model. AppliedOptics, 37: 6329-6338.

Lenes, Jason M., B.P. Darrow, C. Cattrall, C.A.Heil, M. Callahan, G. A. Vargo, R.H.Byrne,J.M. Prospero, D.E. Bates, and J.J.Walsh.2001. Iron Fertilization and theTrichodesmium response on the WestFlorida Shelf. submitted and accepted byLimnological Oceanogr, 2000.

Melo Gonzalez, N.; MÅller-Karger, F.E.;Cerdeira Estrada, S.; PÇrez de los Reyes,R.; Victoria del Rio, I.; C†rdenas Perez, P.;Mitrani Arenal, I. 2000: Near-surfacephytoplankton distribution in the westernIntra-Americas Sea: The influence of ElNiño and weather events. Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol. 105. No. C6.14029-14043.

Muller-Karger, F.E., J.J. Walsh, R.H. Evans, andM.B. Meyers. 1991. On the seasonalphytoplankton concentration and seasurface temperature cycles of the Gulf ofMexico as determined by satellites. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(C7).12645-12665. ■

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5March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

Susan L. PowellSouth Slough Estuarine Research ReserveCoos Bay, Oregon

Steven S. RumrillResearch CoordinatorSouth Slough Estuarine Research Reserve

South Slough National Estuarine Research ReserveMonitoring short-term variability and change in the estuary’s water quality

South Slough National Estuarine ResearchReserveP.O. Box 5417Coos Bay, Oregon 97420E-mail: [email protected]@harborside.com

▲ Figure 1. The Coos estuary system is located in southern Oregon. South Slough is aquiet arm of the larger Coos estuary.

Dynamics, transitions, andchanges are at the heart of estuaries.Derived from the Latin word aestus fortide, estuaries are transitional placeswhere salty ocean water meets andmixes with fresh water from rivers andstreams. These semi-enclosed bodies ofwater include bays, lagoons, sloughs,and mangrove forests. Collectively theycontribute over 21 million acres ofshellfish-growing waters along theshoreline of the contiguous UnitedStates (http://state-of-coast.noaa.gov/).

Estuaries are among the most dy-namic and productive environmentsknown. Nutrients from decaying plantsand animals are continually washeddownstream by rivers and streamswhere they settle out in the shallow,protected bay water. Episodic stormsprovide periods of intense flooding andredistribute the soft sediments and de-caying organic matter. Mixed by windand tides, a rich, organic soup collectsnear the bottom of the estuarine tidalchannels where it forms the base of thefood web for many invertebrates andfish. Estuarine habitats provide vitalspawning, feeding and rearing areas formore than 75% of the commercial fishand shellfish species in the UnitedStates. Estuaries also serve as importantrest and refueling stops for migratoryshorebirds, and as pollution filters,wave buffers, and sediment traps(www.nwi.fws.gov/ and www.epa.gov/owow/estuaries).

Humans have placed a high valueon estuaries for thousands of years.Besides the abundant food supply, estu-aries serve as transportation corridorsfor commerce links between inland andcoastal regions. Prosperous port citiesabound near river mouths. The diverserecreation activities and aesthetic val-ues are also important to the public.Due to this richness, estuaries havebecome densely populated; approxi-mately 53% of the nation’s population

lives within a thin strip of land border-ing the coasts. Unfortunately, thispopularity has led to the widespreaddestruction of estuarine habitats asshorelines have been altered to meeturban, industrial, and agriculturalneeds. Water quality degradation andthe increased incidence of marinepathogens are recent consequences ofthe changing land use patterns. In

— continued on page 6

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6 March 2001EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

South Slough NERR, from page 5some estuaries nutrient levels may bevery high leading to eutrophicationand to low dissolved oxygen levels thatare toxic to most organisms (www.nos.noaa.gov).

NERR System-wide MonitoringProgram (SWMP)

Established in 1974, South SloughNational Estuarine Research Reserve(South Slough NERR) was the first es-tuarine sanctuary designated under theCoastal Zone Management Act (CZMA).It is a drowned river mouth estuary,representative of the mid-Pacific por-tion of the Columbian Bioregion, ex-tending from Cape Mendocino, CAnorth to the Columbia River, OR. SouthSlough is one of seven tidal inlets thatcollectively form the Coos estuary(Figure 1). Encompassing over 4,770acres, South Slough NERR is managedby a partnership between NOAA/Estuarine Reserves Division and theOregon Division of State Lands. Since1974, South Slough NERR has beenjoined by 25 other Reserves in 22 statesand territories to protect over 1 millionacres of estuarine waters, wetlands, anduplands (www.ocrm.nos.noaa.gov/nerrand www.southsloughestuary.com).

Understanding the dynamic natureof change in estuarine ecosystems re-quires long-term datasets that spanmany years and encompass several dis-turbance events. In 1995, the NERRsystem established the System-WideMonitoring Program (SWMP), a nation-ally-coordinated plan to systematicallyassess and track estuarine habitat condi-tions. The mission of the NERR / SWMPis to characterize short-term variabilityand long-term change in water quality,biotic diversity, and land-use in estuar-ies and coastal watersheds. Informationgenerated by the nationwide SWMPwill contribute to a better understand-ing of estuarine ecosystem functionsand improve management decisionsthat affect estuarine habitats through-out the coastal zone of the UnitedStates. The SWMP is currently imple-mented by all 26 NERR sites, and thedatasets and metadata are collected andarchived by a Central Data Manage-ment Office (CDMO) located at theUniversity of South Carolina - Belle

▲ Figure 2. Location of SWMP monitoring stations within the South Slough estuary:Station 1 — The west arm (Winchester Creek) provides the primary source of freshwater

input and is the location of tideland restoration activities.Station 2 — The east arm (Sengstacken) is an undisturbed reference area.Station 3 — Valino Island serves as a reference site in the marine-dominated region of

the estuary.

Baruch Marine Station (http://inlet.geol.sc.edu/cdmohome.html).

At the South Slough NERR, threelong-term monitoring stations wereestablished along the marine-freshwaterestuarine gradient to improve our un-derstanding of tidal dynamics and wa-tershed inputs (Figure 2). In particular,the South Slough NERR SWMP stationscollect continuous information to ad-dress three primary topics: (1) short-

term variability and long-term changesin estuarine water parameters withindifferent regions of the estuary (i.e.,localized impacts of seasonal stormevents, variability in water quality pa-rameters in association with re-estab-lishment of tidal circulation, inter-annual differences in rainfall, magni-tude and influence of El Niño - La Niñaevents, spatial extent of oceanic andtidal forcing, and long-term changes

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7March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

▲ Figure 3. This graphic shows a time-series combination of estuarine monitoring pa-rameters; temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen are on the top graph, while tidelevel and E. coli bacteria levels are shown on the lower graph. The sequence is 30 hourslong and is from the Winchester SWMP station. Bacteria samples were collected everytwo hours. MPN refers to Most Probable Number of colonies per 100 mL of watersampled.

associated with the Pacific Decadal Os-cillation); (2) verification, calibration,and future refinement of an existingtwo-dimensional water quality model(CE-QUAL-W2) developed to predictlevels of coliform bacteria and disper-sion of environmental toxins; and (3)collection of fundamental hydrody-namic data for future development of athree-dimensional tidal circulationmodel for the greater South Slough /Coos Bay estuaries.

Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI)6000 and 6600 data loggers are pro-grammed to record water quality pa-rameters including temperature, depth,pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conduc-tivity, salinity, and turbidity. Theseparameters are indicative of generalestuarine water column conditions andthey are used by regulatory agencies todetermine criteria for human uses. Un-attended, the YSI datasondes recordmeasurements every 30 minutes over22-30 day periods at three stations:

1) Winchester Arm: [43° 16' 56.03" N,124° 19' 7.16"W]In operation since April 1995, this sta-tion is located at a management-treat-ment site (Figure 2). It is within theriverine (southern) portion of the Win-chester Arm (Kunz Marsh) and is ap-proximately 7.1 km from the mouth ofthe South Slough estuary. The site isadjacent to an experimental dike re-moval/marsh restoration area, wheredikes were removed from a 5.1 ha areain 1996 and 1998. About 4.2 hectares ofnatural marsh surround the project site.Tidal range is approximately 8 ft., andsalinity ranges between 0-28 ppt. Fresh-water inputs range between 1 and 23cfs.

2) Sengstacken Arm: 43° 17' 22.57" N,124° 18' 2.75" W]Also operational since April 1995, thisstation serves as a reference site and islocated within the riverine (southern)region of the Sengstacken Arm immedi-ately adjacent to 4.3 ha of natural saltmarsh. The site is approximately 6.6km from the mouth of the SouthSlough estuary. Tidal range is approxi-mately 8 ft., and salinity ranges be-tween 0-28 ppt. Freshwater inputs havenot been quantified.

3) Valino Island: [43° 19' 1.55" N,124° 19' 14.33" W]Installed June 1999, this station servesas a secondary reference area and islocated in the marine-dominated cen-tral portion of the estuary immediatelynorth of Valino Island. The site is ap-proximately 3.6 km from the mouth ofSouth Slough estuary. Situated in theprimary tidal channel, the station is

adjacent to expansive eelgrass beds,tidal mudflats, sandflats, and commer-cial oyster cultivation areas. The tidalrange is about 11.7 ft. and salinityranges between 10-33 ppt.

During deployment, thedatasondes are lowered by chain intoprotective cases (constructed from 4"diameter ABS plumbing pipe) that are

— continued on page 8

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8 March 2001EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

affixed vertically to existing log pilingsdriven into the mud. The cases are per-forated with holes to ensure adequatetidal flushing and exposure of theprobes to ambient estuarine water. Thesensor arrays are positioned 0.5 m offthe bottom of the 3 m deep tidal chan-nels. After three weeks of continuousrecording, the datasondes are retrievedand returned to the laboratory forcleaning, downloading, andrecalibration. Post-deployment calibra-tion checks are performed immediatelyupon retrieval to determine if instru-ment drift has occurred. The sondes arereinstalled at the monitoring stationsthe following day, resulting in amonthly data gap of about 24 hrs.

South Slough NERR, from page 7

▲ Figure 4. A graduate student downloads the YSI datasondes in the laboratory.

▲ Figure 6. A SWMP technician removing the YSI6000 fromthe ABS pipe that is attached to the log piling in the bay.

▲ Figure 5. A labeled sonde on site; shows the WinchesterSWMP station with a telemetry device attached to transmitreal-time data to the interpretive center, for use in a waterquality exhibit.

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9March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

— continued on page 11

▲ Figure 7. The effect of rainfall on several water quality parameters at the Winchester SWMP station. Rainfall data are from theNorth Bend Weather Station about 17 km away. Notice how the heavy rainfall on 1/10 - 1/13 and on 1/24 had immediate effectson the specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity levels.

Applications of the SWMP datasets1. Winchester Tidelands RestorationProject

The Winchester Tidelands Restora-tion Project (WTRP) is a 50-acre specialmanagement area located on the west-ern arm of the South Slough. Histori-cally, this area consisted of highlyproductive salt marshes, mudflats, andestuarine channels. Near the turn of thecentury, streams were channeled andthe tidelands were diked and drained tocreate pastures and freshwater ponds.

By 1970, agriculture had declined inthe area, leaving the Winchester Tide-lands high, dry, and fallow.

The WTRP was designed to restoretidal circulation and lost ecologicalfunctions that benefit diverse commu-nities of tideflat invertebrates, emergentvegetation, migratory shorebirds andwaterfowl, and resident and anadro-mous fish. The 12-acre Kunz parcel wasthe first area targeted for restoration.Earth material from inside the dike wasredistributed over the surface of four

experimental cells (ca.1.5 ac each) tocreate new marsh platforms that variedsequentially in elevation from 1.5 to2.3 m above North American VerticalDatum (NAVD). The earth-moving ac-tivities occurred over a period of threeweeks in August 1996, and the dike wasfinally breached on August 24, allowingthe Winchester Creek tidal channel toflood freely over the experimentalmarsh cells for the first time in about100 years.

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▲ Figure 8. An example of short-term variability in water quality parameters at the Winchester SWMP station. Data were collectedbefore, during, and after an earthen dike was breached at the Kunz marsh in 1996 (heavy vertical line).

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11March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

South Slough NERR, from page 9During the planning phase of the

WTRP, scientists were worried that theextensive pasture vegetation (uprootedby restoration activities, decaying dueto seasonal die-off, and killed outrightby flooding of saline tidal waters)would adversely affect water qualityconditions in Winchester Creek follow-ing dike removal. Data records from theWinchester Creek SWMP station, how-ever, showed that dissolved oxygenlevels (mg/L and % sat) measuredimmediately downstream from therestoration project site were not sub-stantially different from an unmanagedcontrol site (adjacent to a naturalsaltmarsh). These findings providesome assurance that dike removal ac-tivities can proceed in the PacificNorthwest without increases in thefrequency and duration of hypoxia ordegradation of the tidal channel.

2. Pre-Restoration Monitoring at AndersonCreek

Another phase of the WTRP, sched-uled for fall 2001, will reestablishstream meanders and other geomorphicfeatures of Anderson Creek, a smalltributary of Winchester Creek. Al-though the Winchester Creek SWMPstation will collect water quality param-eters pre- and post-restoration, theprobe array is located about 2.4 kmdownstream from the future earth-moving activities. Consequently, anywater quality impacts may be maskedby dilution from other tributaries.

Restoration activities undertaken inone part of the estuary may have tele-graphic effects in another region. Forexample, Coos Bay and South Sloughare the largest commercial oyster-grow-ing region in the state. The OregonDepartment of Agriculture conductsmonthly bacterial analysis on shellfishharvesting regions as part of their man-agement of the industry. They recordeda high bacterial level possibly coincid-ing with the Kunz Marsh restorationactivities in 1996. Because of this, andsince many oyster growers are down-stream from the WTRP, scientists felt itwas important to monitor the effects ofrestoration activities on water quality.

Using equipment and supplies fur-nished by the Oregon Department ofEnvironmental Quality, monitoring hasbegun for a new biotic parameter analy-sis of total coliform and E. coli bacterialevels (IDEXX Colilert method).

A recent college graduate (Univer-sity of Oregon) and high school student(Apprenticeships in Science and Engi-neering) teamed up with the SouthSlough NERR to select monitoring sites,gather water quality data, and analyzethe results. Sampling sites includedareas upstream and downstream fromthe Anderson Creek restoration site,input from other tributaries, and threesites in lower South Slough. Using ahand-held YSI-85 meter, the team re-corded dissolved oxygen, conductivity,and temperature in the field. They alsocollected water samples to analyze tur-bidity, pH and bacterial levels in thelaboratory. During and after restora-tion, staff scientists will use the proto-col developed by the team to assesswater quality changes coinciding withrestoration activities.

3. Tidal forcing of E. coli BacteriaIn another project, intensive water

column sampling was conducted dur-ing July 2000 to quantify short-termvariability in bacteria levels associatedwith forcing by the ebb and flood ofthe semi-diurnal tides. Estuarine watersamples were collected from the ValinoIsland (marine) and Winchester Creek(riverine) SWMP stations at 2-hour in-tervals over a period of 30 hours (seeFigure 3). Colony forming units arereported as Most Probable Number ofcolonies per 100 mL (MPN). Resultsfrom the Valino Island bacterial analy-sis indicate that E. coli levels fluctuateinversely with the tides, and that thegreatest concentrations of bacteria(MPN > 50) occur during the lowest ofthe semi-diurnal tides. Dissolved oxy-gen levels climbed slowly during themonitoring period and reached a peakof ca. 10 mg/L immediately followingthe afternoon low tide. The time-seriesof bacterial concentrations followed asimilar pattern at the Winchester creeksite although the most probable num-bers for E. coli were much greater (500to 600 MPN).

Future plans and other applications ofthe South Slough NERR SWMP data

• Baseline understanding of short-termvariability and long-term change in anestuarine tidal channel that is represen-tative of the Lower Columbia bioregion(ongoing 1995-present)

• Real-time tracking of the PacificDecadal Oscillation (PDO) and the ex-tent of cooling of estuarine waters(1999 to 2004+)

• Case history of El Niño/Southern Os-cillation ocean warming event in Pa-cific Northwest estuarine waters (1997ENSO — repeated every 3-8 years)

• Influence of seasonal upwelling/oceanforcing on estuarine tidal waters anddetermination of nitrogen loading fromoceanic versus watershed inputs (an-nual/seasonal 1999 - present)

• Dynamics of estuarine tidal waters ineelgrass beds and commercial oystercultivation areas (annual/season/tidalcycles 1999 - present)

• Biophysical impacts of salt marshrestoration on adjacent tidal channeland eelgrass beds (1996-1999)

• Identification of bacterial sources inestuarine waters with DNA sequencetechniques (2001-2002)

• Temporal dynamics of estuarine tidalcreeks during flushing by seasonalfreshets (annually/Nov-Mar)

Notes:South Slough website is at http://

southsloughestuary.com/IDEXX equipment (http://www.idexx.com/)

and supplies furnished by the Oregon Depart-ment of Environmental Quality.

The Central Data Management Office inGeorgetown, SC, manages water quality datarecorded by all the Reserve sites (http://inlet.geol.sc.edu/cdmoweb/home.html).

EcoWatch for Windows program devel-oped by YSI, Inc (http://www.ysi.com/).

Saturday Academy Apprenticeships inScience and Engineering (http://www.ogi.edu/satacad/). ■

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Marine reserve design in Florida’s TortugasCurrents and coral reefs

Joanne M. DelaneyFlorida Keys National Marine SanctuaryNOAA/National Ocean Service

The Florida Keys National MarineSanctuary (FKNMS) is a 2800 squarenautical mile marine protected areathat was designated in 1990 and is ad-ministered under the National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration’s Na-tional Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS). Acomprehensive management plan forthe Sanctuary was adopted in 1997 thatcontained an innovative tool for ma-rine resource protection, the creation ofa network of 23 no-take zones, or ma-rine reserves. Marine reserves havebeen utilized successfully in othercountries for decades and zoning, in

general, is a well-recognized manage-ment tool in terrestrial habitats. How-ever, the use of marine zoning in theFlorida Keys was a first for this country,representing a bold step in marine re-source protection.

The FKNMS zoning network in-cludes five different zone types de-signed to achieve various objectives.One zone type, ecological reserves, wasspecifically designed to protect a full-range of habitats and preservebiodiversity. In 1997, one ecologicalreserve was established in the WesternSambo area of the Sanctuary with thecommitment to create a second ecologi-cal reserve in the Tortugas region, lo-cated in the westernmost reaches of theFlorida Keys. In 1998, a process called

Tortugas 2000 was initiated and a di-verse working group of 25 stakeholdersand agency representatives convened todesign the Tortugas Ecological Reserve.

One of the initial components ofthis reserve design process was supply-ing oceanographic and ecological datafrom the Tortugas region to the work-ing group. Dr. Tom Lee and colleaguesfrom the University of Miami’sRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmo-spheric Science collected and synthe-sized extensive physical oceanographicinformation for the Tortugas 2000 ef-fort. These data were the product often years of research by Dr. Lee to mapcurrent patterns and water movementsthroughout the Florida Keys, Gulf ofMexico, and Florida Bay.

▲ Figure 1. Potential larval recruitment pathways in the Florida Keys (current data courtesy of Dr. T. Lee, University of Miami).

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13March 2001 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

Florida Keys National Marine SanctuaryNOAA/NOSP.O. Box 500368Marathon, Florida 33050E-mail: [email protected]

Several satellite-tracked surfacedrifters were released at various loca-tions and times of the year and moni-tored by project researchers. Data onindividual drifters was presented to theworking group to elucidate the variedoceanographic circulation in theTortugas region. The persistence anddirection of major surface currents wasdemonstrated by combining data fromseveral drifter tracks with observationsof coastal and offshore currents, seatemperature, and wind speeds, provid-ing a clear picture of broad-scale circu-lation patterns. A research projectsupported by the Center for MarineConservation that tracked the return ofsmall drift bottles released in theTortugas during a known reef fishspawning event and descriptions of

Caribbean-wide current patterns (afterC. Roberts, 1997) were also provided tothe working group. These data werethen compared with known life historyinformation (specifically, planktoniclarval durations) of several key fish andinvertebrate species. The combinedphysical and biological data created acomprehensive picture of potentiallarval recruitment pathways in theFlorida Keys, and confirmed that theTortugas region has high potential toserve as both a source and sink area forthe larvae of many recreationally andcommercially important marine species(Figure 1). Lastly, these physical andbiological data were overlaid with so-cioeconomic information on the usesof the area to create a comprehensivepicture of the region’s resources andactivities, and to assess the potentialimpacts and effectiveness of any givenreserve boundary alternative.

A consensus proposal for theTortugas Ecological Reserve was submit-ted by the working group in June 1999

to the six agencies with jurisdiction inthe region. Final agency approvals areexpected in April 2001, after which theFKNMS will implement its largest no-take zone, the Tortugas Ecological Re-serve (Figure 2). At 151 square nauticalmiles, the Tortugas Ecological Reservewill be an order of magnitude largerthan the rest of the Sanctuary’s no-takezones combined.

The establishment of an ecologicalreserve in the Tortugas region attainedmuch significance as a result of theoceanographic data gathered by Dr. Leeand other researchers. These dataclearly demonstrate the potential ben-efits of an upstream, no-take reserve tothe Florida Keys marine ecosystem andbeyond. Marine reserve efforts world-wide will benefit from the Florida KeysNational Marine Sanctuary’s successesusing oceanographic data in the designand establishment of the Tortugas Eco-logical Reserve. The sanctuary's websiteis www.fknms.nos.noaa.gov/tortugas. ■

▲ Figure 2. Proposed boundary for the Tortugas Ecological Reserve, which will be comprised of two sections called Tortugas Northand Tortugas South. The Dry Tortugas National Park plans to implement a no-take zone within park water that will protect criticalshallow reef habitats and complement the Tortugas Ecological Reserve (labeled as "DRTO Proposed RNA").

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Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites(GOES) Users' Conference seeks participants

The National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration (NOAA) will beholding a Geostationary Operational En-vironmental Satellites (GOES) Users’ Con-ference in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.from May 22 through 24, 2001.

Goals• inform GOES users of plans fornext generation capabilities;• provide information on potentialapplications;• determine user needs for new prod-ucts, data distribution, and dataarchiving;• assess potential user and societalbenefits of GOES capabilities; and• develop methods to improve com-munication between the National Envi-ronmental Satellite, Data, and Inform-ation Service (NESDIS) and the GOESuser community, including a formalprocess for receiving input.

The Conference is being organizedby NOAA in cooperation of theNational Aeronautics and Space Admin-istration (NASA), the American Meteo-rological Society (AMS), the NationalWeather Association (NWA), the U.S.Department of Commerce’s NationalInstitute of Standards and Technology(NIST), and the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO).

The format of the Conference willconsist of two days of invited presenta-tions followed by one day of breakoutsessions with professional facilitators toassist the GOES user community inproviding input to NESDIS.

Partial list of speakers• Mr. Greg Withee, Assistant Admin-istrator for Satellite and InformationServices, NOAA;• Dr. James Purdom, Director,NESDIS Office of Research and Applica-tions (ORA);• Dr. W. Paul Menzel, Senior Scien-tist, NESDIS/ORA;• Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director Na-tional Weather Service, National Cen-ters for Environmental Prediction(NWS/ NCEP);

• Mr. Gregory Mandt, Director, NWSOffice of Climate, Water, and WeatherServices (OCWWS);• Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, Director,Board of Atmospheric Sciences andClimate, National Research Council;and• Mr. Ray Ban, Senior Vice Presidentof the Weather Channel.

For more information please seethe web site: http://www.osd.noaa.gov/conference. When you visit this site,please fill out the “Conference InterestQuestionnaire”.

Online registration is available atthe NIST web site:http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/confpage/conffutr.htm.

Information on Boulder and direc-tions to NIST can be found at: http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/visitor/visitor.htm .

Hotel rooms and conference spaceare limited. A block of rooms has beenset aside for Conference participants atthe Regal Harvest House: +1-303-443-3850. For a list of other hotels, pleasecontact Wendy Ortega Henderson [email protected].

When you call for reservationsplease mention the GOES Users’ Con-ference for the rates of US$90 per nightor US$120 per night.

Please note that the formal sessionsrun through May 24, but optional toursof local facilities, such as NIST, the Na-tional Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), the Space Environment Center(SEC) and the Forecast Systems Labora-tory (FSL) will be provided on Friday,May 25. Please feel free to forward thise-mail to anyone who might be inter-ested in the conference.

If you would like to have a confer-ence brochure mailed to you, or if youwould like additional information,please provide your mailing address orsend your question to:

Wendy Ortega HendersonE-mail: [email protected]

Phone 303-497-3693 ■

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Data productsand services

CONTACT POINTS

National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)828-271-4800

Fax: 828-271-4876E-mail: Climate Services - [email protected] Satellite Services -

[email protected]: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)

303-497-6419Fax: 303-497-6513

E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/

National Oceanographic Data Center(NODC)

301-713-3277Fax: 301-713-3302

E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/

NOAA Environmental Services Data Directory

301-713-0575Fax: 301-713-0819

E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.esdim.noaa.gov/

#data-products

NOAA Central LibraryReference Services:

301-713-2600Fax: 301-713-4599

E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/

GOES ASOS Supplemental CloudProduct Geo-Praxis contacted the NationalClimatic Data Center concerning theavailability of a Geostationary OperationalEnvironmental Satellite (GOES) productcalled the Automated Surface ObservingSystem (ASOS) Supplemental Cloud Prod-uct. The GOES satellites measure cloudcover and cloud heights for over 500Automated Surface Observation Stationson an hourly basis. The data supplementsstation cloud cover measurements forclouds above 12,000 feet, since ASOSceilometers can only measure the pres-ence of clouds below that level. The ben-efits of using GOES-derived cloud coverdata can be applied to heating and cool-ing design criteria of new buildings. Geo-Praxis designs, implements, and evaluatesenergy-efficiency of technologies, materi-als, and practices.Contact: NCDC

Space Weather CD-ROMJoe H. Allen, the Secretary for The

Scientific Committee on Solar-TerrestrialPhysics, has compiled a CD-ROM withseven PowerPoint presentations focusingon Space Weather as it affects satellites,humans, and technology. One talk intro-duces the idea for an international scien-tific program ”International GeophysicalYear +50” to center on 2007-2008. Thepresentations span a wide range of sizes.All are available electronically; however,the largest (an encyclopedic 100 slidesplus 70 electronic note pages) is difficultto transfer successfully. Dan Baker, Direc-tor, University of Colorado’s Lab for At-mospheric and Space Physics, isco-compiler of the CD.Contact: NGDC

Global Monthly Vegetation CoverThe NCDC has produced an updated

CD-ROM containing a Time Series of Glo-bal Monthly Vegetation Cover from thePOES AVHRR instrument. This updatedCD-ROM contains a 12-year time series ofglobal monthly mean NDVI (NormalizedDifference Vegetation Index) data repro-cessed from the AVHRR measurements.Data coverage is from April 1985 to De-cember 1997. For more information:http://nndc.noaa.gov/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00450-CDR-A0001.Contact: NCDC

High fuel prices and cold weatherhurt truckers

This winter’s below normal tempera-tures and accompanying high fuel priceshave hit our nation’s truckers hard. It iscommon practice for truckers to idle theirengines when stopped at night whentemperatures drop below 50 degrees F.Idling significantly increases maintenancecosts, up to $3.00 for each hour the en-gine idles. As a result, Espar Heating Sys-tems is working with the Department ofTransportation to develop an efficient fuelheater which costs only pennies an hourto operate. NCDC provided maps of thenumber of days below minimum tem-perature thresholds to Espar. The thresh-old maps will be used to identify routesand areas of the country where the newheaters will have the largest impact.Contact: NCDC

Tree ring data helps prepare fordrought

A press release issued by NOAA inJanuary was featured in Federal newsstories of The Water Strategist Community.The release describes work by Dr. ConnieWoodhouse at NOAA’s National Geo-physical Data Center to study tree ringdata from the past 300 years. The dataprovides information on Clear Creek, themain source of water for the City ofWestminster, Colorado, and providesinsight into the duration, severity, andmagnitude of drought, and is useful inwater resource management. Total an-nual streamflow was reconstructed fromtree ring chronologies over a 300-yearperiod. The tree ring data were comparedwith data from the instrumental recordfor the period 1912-1980. The full releaseis online at http://www.publicaffairs. noaa.gov/releases2001/jan01/noaa01r301.html.Contact: NGDC

Illegal aliens abductedThe NCDC supplied the Immigration

and Naturalization Service (INS) withweather data to support a prosecutioninvolving individuals charged with endan-gering and transporting illegal aliens inthe back of an unheated U-Haul truck.The Anti-Smuggling unit apprehended 18illegal aliens near DeKalb, Illinois. The INSwas supplied with weather observationsfrom DeKalb and other locations alongthe traveled route, prior to apprehension.Contact: NCDC

Newly-enhanced Desert Stormsatellite images

The National Climatic Data Center(NCDC), in response to the ten-year anni-versary of Operation Desert Storm, hasproduced eight enhanced satellite imagesof the Persian Gulf Region from the PolarOrbiting Environmental Satellite, NOAA-11. These images, showing dramaticscenes of billowing black smoke stretch-ing hundreds of miles, document thegreat environmental catastrophe thatoccurred when retreating Iraqi soldierstorched over 100 Kuwaiti oil wells. Severalsquare miles of blazing oil well fires aredepicted as bright red spots indicatingintense heat, detected by one of the fivechannels on the Advanced Very HighResolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instru-ment. Each image is annotated with infor-mative notes on the disaster and can beviewed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.Contact: NCDC

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Address C

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Monitor

Spring weather outlookWinter snow storms in the North-

east and Midwest have set the stage forpotential flooding while drought condi-tions in the Northwest and water short-ages in the Southeast will linger despitespring rains, NOAA scientists at theCommerce Department said today.

Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. JackKelly, director of the weather service,said, “The spring outlook presentsforecasters with two concerns —drought and floods. “Heavy snows inthe Northeast and Midwest now makesome of those states vulnerable to floodsif the snow pack melts too quickly. Thewater shortage in the Southeast is ex-pected to remain. The Northwest willsee above-normal precipitation, but thespring rainfall will be too little too lateto replenish water resources there.”

“U.S. Geological Survey stream-gauges and other monitoring systemsshow record-breaking dryness in manyparts of the United States, particularlythe Pacific Northwest, western NorthCarolina, and parts of Florida,” saidUSGS Director Chip Groat.

For Spring 2001, the nation canexpect:• In the South, frequent rains since No-vember in parts of Texas, Oklahoma,Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mis-sissippi, have eliminated drought condi-tions. If these areas get additionalsignificant rain, flooding is likely be-cause streams are already running high;• In the Western Great Lakes regions(Wis., Eastern Minn., and Upper Mich.)there is a potential for frequent rain.Snow from this month’s Nor’easter hasheightened flooding concerns along theConnecticut and Merrimack river ba-sins, where at least 10-12 inches of wa-ter is stored in the snow pack — twicethe normal amount. Above normalsnowmelt flooding is possible across theregion;• Near normal average temperature con-ditions are expected for the 3 monthperiod in the Mid-Atlantic region (60degrees) and central United States (60s),including the Ohio, Tennessee (70s) andMid- and Southern Mississippi Valleys(75), and most of the Plains states (60degrees);

• The Midwest (55-60 degrees) is ex-pected to have a normal spring. How-ever, the weather service is closelywatching the snow melt in many areasincluding Minnesota and the Dakotasfor potential flooding. The region re-ceived above average snowfall this win-ter creating a likelihood for springflooding if the snow pack melts tooquickly.• In the Southeast, including Florida,the weather service is forecasting awarm and relatively dry spring. Severedrought conditions have sparked wild-fires in Florida, however, mid to late-March rains and season rains, whichtypically return by June, could providesome relief. Long term deficits will likelycontinue to impact water supplies;• In the Southwest, expect above-nor-mal temperatures; but normal precipita-tion.• Though above-normal precipitation isforecast for parts of the Northwest, itwill not be enough to offset the impactof already low precipitation levels andthe resulting thin snow pack;• Near normal precipitation conditionsexpected over Alaska, Hawaii and PuertoRico leaving most of Hawaii and south-ern Puerto Rico in persistent dryness.Alaska has been relatively warm withbelow-normal snowpack. This springabove normal temperatures are expectedfor northern Alaska while the southernextremes should be cool.

“NOAA’s recent climate initiativesand technology improvements haveresulted in gains in the accuracy oflong-term seasonal forecasts and short-term severe weather prediction,” NOAAActing Under Secretary Scott Gudes said.“NOAA’s climate and weather forecastservices are vital since $1 trillion of theU.S. economy is weather sensitive withmost of the major economic sectorsincluding energy, agriculture, transpor-tation, construction, and water re-sources affected.”

To read the complete Spring 2001Outlook, visit: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov.The outlook will be updated on April 12at 3 p.m EST.

— Curtis Carey(301) 713-0622 ■