chornobyl - fukushima

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Chornobyl - Fukushima A view of Fukushima through the prism of Chornobyl experience Oleg Nasvit National Institute for Strategic Studies

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Chornobyl - Fukushima. A view of Fukushima through the prism of Chornobyl experience Oleg Nasvit National Institute for Strategic Studies. Present problems and issues. Levels – Areas Evacuation Zones – Uncertain Homecoming Psychological issues Employment problems Ash war - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Chornobyl - Fukushima

A view of Fukushima through the prism of Chornobyl experience

Oleg NasvitNational Institute for Strategic Studies

Page 2: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Present problems and issues

• Levels – Areas• Evacuation Zones – Uncertain Homecoming• Psychological issues• Employment problems• Ash war• Energy shortage• Measurements methodology (“TEPCO says it will take at least

two weeks to analyze the strontium level in the water”)• Environmental sampling methodology

Page 3: Chornobyl - Fukushima

A map taken from the last UNSCEAR Chornobyl Report

Page 4: Chornobyl - Fukushima

第3次航空機モニタリング結果とセシウム137の土壌濃度マップの比較についてthis map is taken from 文部科学省による放射線量等分布マップ

(放射性セシウムの土壌濃度マップ)の作成について

Page 5: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Two maps in the same scale

Page 6: Chornobyl - Fukushima
Page 7: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Resricted Area, Deliberate Evacuation Area, Evacuation-Prepared Area in case of Emergency And Evacuation Recommendation Spots (As of August 3, 2011)

Page 8: Chornobyl - Fukushima

150 ths (present value is about 120 ths) of evacuated are still anticipated homecoming. More than 28000 households were evacuated

House of Mr. Hiromishi Sato is 2.5 km from the F-1 exhaust stack, dose rate is over 500 mcSv per hour as of Nov 25.

NHK: Fukushima University Sociological Survey. November, 2011http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/movie/feature201111242000.html

Page 9: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Risk comparison is important• Residents wary of call to return to village near crippled Fukushima plant(Mainichi Japan. The Mainichi Daily News) February 1, 2012http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20120201p2a00m0na014000c.html Before the nuclear disaster, Sekine was self-employed, taking on contracts

for work like plumbing or spraying agricultural pesticide. …The Kawauchi village government has said that jobs will be available in radiation decontamination work, but this does not alleviate Sekine's concerns.

Some residents concern: "Why should those of us who fled from radiation now have to do jobs where we are bathed in it?" he asks.

Comment of O.N.: If someone works professionally with spraying agricultural pesticides, he should not

care of Fukushima radiation, his risk will not increase.

Page 10: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Quick learning• Meanwhile, Kawauchi Mayor Yuko Endo told at a news conference on Jan.

31: "We felt that if there was a possibility people could return, we should expand that possibility." In November last year, Endo visited the site of the Chernobyl disaster. He says that, seeing how the residents there were forced into long-term evacuation, he felt: "If there is still something we can do, we should do it."

• "If evacuated people get used to the conveniences of the city and living

off of compensation payments, they will lose their drive to work and to return to their homes. If the villagers fall, the national and prefectural governments will not pick them up. People of the village have to do that," he said.

Page 11: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Japan's Environment Ministry has compiled guidelines for the removal of radioactive materials discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

The 164-page document with illustrations was disclosed at a meeting of experts on Sunday. It was compiled for residents of cities and municipalities

Sunday, December 11, 2011 23:28 +0900 (JST)http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20111211_19.html

Page 12: Chornobyl - Fukushima

This is very good, but…

• We advice residents how to do. But what about why and what to do?

• Decontamination and remediation. The same word in Japanese, but really different meaning in English. This is of outmost importance!

• IAEA Guidelines on remediation are based on Chornobyl experience.

• First – to understand the dose structure. Then – to address the main dose-forming pathways.

Page 13: Chornobyl - Fukushima

A good sign• News Navigator: How is radioactively tainted farm soil decontaminated?

(Mainichi Japan) February 10, 2012http://mdn.mainichi.jp/perspectives/news/20120210p2a00m0na002000c.html

• Soil is plowed in an experiment to lower the concentration of radioactive materials in Minamisoma, Fukushima Prefecture in this recent photograph. (Mainichi)

• Researchers are looking into various options. Tokyo University of Agriculture professor Itsuo Goto is experimenting in the Fukushima Prefecture city of Minamisoma with the method of plowing soil down to a depth of 15 centimeters to lower the concentration of radioactive cesium. This method does not require the removal and storage of topsoil. Goto is also proceeding with an experiment to spread zeolite, which absorbs radioactive materials, onto farm fields to limit the absorption of radioactive materials by crops.

Page 14: Chornobyl - Fukushima

What will be the dose reduction?Govt releases rules for nuclear fallout cleanupWednesday, December 14, 2011 17:47 +0900 (JST)http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20111214_27.html Japan's Environment Ministry has issued specific rules and procedures for cleaning up fallout from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The ordinance says the central government will shoulder the cost of decontaminating soil in areas with radiation levels of 0.23 microsieverts per hour or above. The government is also responsible for disposing of sludge and debris contaminated with radioactive cesium of more than 8,000 Becquerel per kilogram.  The ordinance is aimed at accelerating the clean-up work being done by the public sector. The Environment Ministry will next week announce the names of more than 100 municipalities in northern Japan and areas around Tokyo where clean-up efforts are necessary.

Page 15: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Psychological issuesTeachers in disaster area suffering depressionMonday, December 12, 2011 08:18 +0900 (JST)http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20111212_10.html A survey has found that one in 3 teachers in the disaster-hit Miyagi Prefecture suffers from depression. A local teachers' union surveyed 3,375 teachers at public elementary and junior high schools in the prefecture in September and October.  1,029 teachers, or 30.5 percent, said they have experienced mild-to-moderate depression.  The percentage of teachers reporting moderate depression was twice as high in the hardest-hit coastal cities, including Ishinomaki and Higashimatsushima, than elsewhere in the prefecture.

Page 16: Chornobyl - Fukushima

UnemploymentDisaster survivors face harsh employment situationSunday, December 11, 2011 10:12 +0900 (JST)http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20111211_06.html Sunday marks 9 months since the earthquake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11th. Disaster survivors are facing a harsh employment situation.  In affected areas, 66,366 people were receiving unemployment benefits as of October. Benefits for most of them will start to expire in January of next year (already this year). In the hardest-hit prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima, just 4,527 people found a full-time job in October.  Short-term employment is increasing. But few companies have restored operations to pre-disaster levels, failing to produce enough stable jobs to help rebuild the livelihood of affected people.  The National Police Agency says the number of dead and missing from the disaster in the Tohoku region stood at 19,270 as of Friday. By prefecture, Miyagi has 11,385 victims, followed by Iwate with 6,053, and Fukushima with 1,826.

Page 17: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Stricter food limits enhance unemploymentTOKYO (Kyodo) -- A government panel on Thursday approved the health ministry's proposal for far stricter limits on radioactive cesium found in food, paving the way for the ministry to enforce the new limits in Japan in April.

The Radiation Council noted the new limits are based on an assumption that most of Japanese food products are contaminated with cesium.

The panel also pointed out that food with cesium levels slightly above the new limits would have little effect on human health. As the new limits could impede sales of farm products from Fukushima Prefecture, the government should respect the views of their producers as much as possible in enforcing the new limits, it said.

The new limits, which come between one-20th and a quarter of the present tentative limits depending on food categories, are set at 100 becquerels per kilogram for regular food items such as rice and meat, 50 becquerels for milk and infant food, and 10 becquerels for drinking water. Citizens' groups have called for even stricter cesium limits.

Comment of O.N.:Taking into account the information received from Sugawara-san during the meeting, that WBC survey showed less than 1 mSv/y of internal exposure of population, this introduction of new standards will just strike farmers with no radiological effect. Maybe it will have some temporary positive psychological effect. But on my mind this is an easy but a wrong way to address psychological anxiety.

Page 18: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Ash war

 Akita Prefecture in northern Japan has begun to return radioactive ash from the incineration of garbage to the prefecture the ash was sent from. The ash had been brought to Akita from 10 municipalities in 6 prefectures located near Tokyo.  Because of the opposition of residents living near the garbage incineration plants, the prefecture has decided to return the radioactive ash to the municipalities of origin.

Radioactive ash returned from AkitaWednesday, December 07, 2011 19:29 +0900 (JST)http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/society.htm 

In July, radioactive substances above the government's safety limit were detected in ash brought to Akita from two cities in Chiba Prefecture, raising concerns among residents near the incinerators.  There has been no place to store a total of 245 tons of ash with radiation levels below the government's safety limit. Akita Prefecture has begun to return the radioactive ash to the 10 municipalities of origin.

Page 19: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Energy shortage in Japan

Page 20: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Energy shortage in Japan

Japan’s Trade Deficit Widens in JanuaryPublished on 2/20/2012 10:53:57 AM | By TradingEconomics.com, Ministry of Finance Japan

Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record level in January, as falling exports combined with surging imports of energy.

Imports rose 9.8 per cent from a year earlier, while exports were down 9.3 per cent, resulting in a record monthly deficit of Y1.48tn ($19bn).

Last year Japan’s trade balance fell into an annual deficit for the first time since 1980, driven by subdued global demand and soaring fossil fuel imports in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear power crisis.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/balance-of-trade

Page 21: Chornobyl - Fukushima

• Comment of my American friend as of 1994 on Chornobyl arrangements in Ukraine: If the US has the same arrangements it would destroy American economy

Page 22: Chornobyl - Fukushima

0 1 2 3 4 5

Волинська

Житомирська

Київська

Рівненська

Чернігівська

Паспортна "чорнобильська" доза

Доза від техногенно підсилених джерел природного походження

В масштабах держави серед радіологічних чинників чорнобильське опромінення є чинником другорядним

мЗв

Навіть на територіях, віднесених до зон радіоактивного забруднення, “чорнобильська” паспортна доза є істотно меншою від природної

Вклад “чорнобильського” опромінення в сумарну дозу є незначним

13%3%

1%

59%

24%

Медичне опромінення

"Чорнобильське" опромінення

Використання ядерної енергії

Радон у повітрі будівель

Інші джерела природногопоходження

Структура дози опромінення пересічного українця

Page 23: Chornobyl - Fukushima

30600

13000

6000

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6240

1,80 761383

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Потреба

ДБ на 2010 р.

Несумірність 2010: Потреба та план, млн. грн.

Потреба > 57 млрд. грн.

На 2010 р. видатки державного бюджету 322,7 млрд. грн.

Передбаченобюджетом

Додаткова потребазгідно з законом

Решта бюджетнихпрограм

Потреби і фінансування

0

10

20

30

40

50

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1996 2001 2007 2010

мл

рд

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н.

0

500

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.Потреба згідно з чинним законодавствомПрофінансовано (план для 2010)Мінімальна заробітна плата, грн.

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Чорнобильські видатки зведеного бюджету

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Державний бюджет - усі чорнобильські видаткиНа соціальний захист і пенсійне забезпеченняу т.ч. соціальний захист (без пенсій)

Чорнобильські видатки

Page 24: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Сьогодні віднесення населених пунктів до зон радіоактивного забруднення не відповідає їх фактичному радіологічному стану

Віднесення населених пунктів до зон радіоактивного забруднення згідно чинних нормативно-правових актів

Дози опромінення в населених пунктах, віднесених до зон радіоактивного забруднення за результатами дозпаспортизації 2008 року

Дози3, 1–5 мЗв4, 0,5–1 мЗв <0,5 мЗв

Зони1 відчуж. 2, >5 мЗв3, 1– 5 мЗв4, 0,5–1 мЗв

Page 25: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Зонування радіоактивно забрудненої території України згідно чинних нормативно-правових актів

ЗониКомпенсації за

проживанняДоплати

за роботуРазом

4 3957,98 12278,96 16236,943 1956,96 9055,56 11012,522 18,93 99,22 118,151 163,25 163,25

Компенсації та доплати за проживання та роботу на територіях радіоактивного забруднення, млн.грн. (потреба згідно з законом, 2010 р.)

Page 26: Chornobyl - Fukushima

Please,do not repeat our mistakes