chris adma forum 2011

8/3/2019 Chris ADMA Forum 2011

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Is Your Data-Driven Marketing DrivingCustomers To Leave?

Chris Lowther, GM Customer Analytics & Interaction, PBBI APAC

p: +61 430 721 703

e: [email protected]

l: www.linkedin.com/in/chrislowther

t: @lowtherc

w: www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/
mailto:[email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/chrislowtherhttp://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/http://www.linkedin.com/in/chrislowthermailto:[email protected]


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2 | April 30, 2012 | PBBI Internal use only

Success has Many Fathers


3/25


When is a Response not a Valuable Thing?

When it is not incremental Traditional Response Models

Assume that all purchases after a campaign are incremental, i.e. would not havehappened if the campaign had not been carried out.

Assume that no purchases are lost as a result of the campaign. Oh really!

When it has cost more to generate than your benefit

When it is the opposite of what you want

Is it possible that your business ismodelling the wrong thing?


4/25


Time

Sophistication

Response Probability Value

MAINSTREAMCURRENTPRACTICE

ROIModels

ResponseProbability

LAGGARDS

ResponseModels

PurchaseProbability

PurchaseModels

LookalikeModels

Increasing Sophistication in Propensity Modelling


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Time

Sophistication

LandGrab

Attrition Probability Value


Target onvalue at risk

AttritionProbability

LAGGARDS

Target onattrition

risk

SignificantEvent

Untargetedretention

Acquisition

Increasing Sophistication in Proactive Retention


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Blue indicating high defection rateGreen indicating low defection rate

Mobile subscribersand defection

distributed acrossgeographic regions

in Norway

Mobile prepaidcustomers with high

propensity to leaveand high propensity to

migrate to postpaidare also our most

profitable customers

Churn Insight


7/257 | April 30, 2012 | PBBI Internal use only

Value at Risk Micro-Segmentation

Top5 Next 10 Next 20 Mid 30 Low40

High 1

High 2

High 3

Medium 1

Medium 2

Medium 3

Medium 4

Low 1

Low 2

Low 3

Prop

ensitytol

eave

Customer Profitability Segments= low / no investments

= mediuminvestments

= highinvestments



SegmentNumber of

CustomersSaves

Save

Rate %

Value of

ResponseTotal Profit

Treated 100,000 75,000 75% 15,000,000 7,450,000

Control 100,000 70,000 70% 14,000,000 13,880,000

Uplift 5,000 5% 1,000,000 6,430,000-

Measurement of Effectiveness

Uplift = Treated Response Control Response

Uplift can only be measured against a control group or background response rate

Campaign profitability is measured from Uplift only not total responses

Can we target on Uplift only?

But not just about positive effects can my campaign be having negative effects?

Value = 200Contact Cost = 0.50Incentive = 100



No Yes

Yes

No

Fundamental Segmentation for Retention

PERSUADABLES

SLEEPING DOGS

LOST CAUSES

CHURN IF

TREATED

CHURN IF NOT TREATED

SURE THINGS



Incremental Impact for Retention

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Proportion targeted

P

roportionofincrem

entaleffect

Sure Things:Stay whether you

treat or not

Lost Causes:Leave whetheryou treat or not

1

2A

2B

3

Persuadables:Only stay if treated

Sleeping DogsStay unless you treat

2

No impactPositive

impact

Negative

impact

1 2 3



When are negative effects likely?

11

dissatisfied / angry customers

risqu / offensivecommunications

attrition risk

intrusive contact mechanisms

forgotten standing charges



Time

Sophistication

LandGrab

Attrition Probability Value


Target onvalue at

risk

AttritionProbability

LAGGARDS

Target onattritionrisk

SignificantEvent

Untargetedretention

Acquisition

Increasing Sophistication in Retention

Save Prob Value

STATE-OF-THE-ART

Target on

savablevalue



Customer Case Studies

Initiative ROI

(/per year)

Customer retention 8,000,000

Customer Cross-sell Cost Savings 400,000

Customer Loyalty Cost Savings 1,100,00

Customer Acquisition Growth 600,000Customer Acquisition CostReduction

600,000

Online acquisition cost avoidance 100,000

Total ROI 10,800,000

Use Customer Insight as never used before: Leverage Data andAnalytical Excellence to increase customer retention and profitability

Key breakthroughs with Portrait Analytics and Uplift Optimizerat Lloyds TSB Insurance

Added over 10 million incremental profit per year in the last two years

Increased the retention rate by 4.09%,300% times better ROI

Increased the marketing response rate by 35%

47 k

108 k

164 k

193 k189 k184 k186 k

156 k

110 k

66 k

0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0 k

50 k

100 k

150 k

200 k

250 k

Uplift Profit

Strong Positive Effect Marginal Effect Negative Effect

47 k

108 k

164 k

193 k189 k184 k186 k

156 k

110 k

66 k

0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k0 k

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0 k

50 k

100 k

150 k

200 k

250 k

Uplift Profit

Strong Positive Effect Marginal Effect Negative Effect

Business Goals

ROI



Uplift is Not Additive

Mike Hussey Shane Watson

Alistair Cook Average 127.66



Uplift is not Additive



Customer Case Studies

Deliver next generation targeting for customer retention (churn) campaignsRemoving negative effects thus decreasing both churn and campaign costs

Campaign ROI increased over 11 times previous campaignsChurn rate decreases by an additional 36% over traditional approach

Traditional targeting reduced churn by 5% (from 23% to 18%)

But significant negative effects observed

Uplift model reduced these significantly

Saving 40% of treatment costs

Further reducing churn to 6.8%

Business Goals

ROI

Without Uplift

With Uplift

Treated

Volume

100%

Treated volumereduced by 40%

60%

Reduction in

Overall Churn

Without Uplift

With Uplift

5% 6.8%

Resultsimproved

36%

19 %

15 %14 %

12 %

14 % 13 %

15 %14 %

10 %

11 %

9 %8 %

11 %10 %

9 %

23 %

19 %

17 %

14 %

18 %

16 %

20 %

18 %

11 %

13 %

11 %

9 %

13 %12 %

11 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

Introduction offirst predictionmodel

Introduction ofrefined predictionmodel

months

annualdefectionrate



Uplift Targeting vs Churn Probability

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Proportion targeted

Chur

nRate

0%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2%

Upliftrate

(changeinC

hurnprobability)

-6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-4%

Targeted

Control

Reduction inChurn (Lift)

(Most likely to Churn first)(Most likely to be saved first)



When Things go Well Mobile Phone Contract Renewal

No Yes

Yes

NoPERSUADABLES

SLEEPING DOGS

LOST CAUSESCHURN IFTREATED

CHURN IF NOT TREATED

SURE THINGS



When Things go Wrong Mobile Telco

Value = 200Contact Cost = 0.50Incentive = 100

SegmentNumber of

Customers

SavesSave

Rate %

Value of

Response

Total Profit

Treated 100,000 90,000 90% 18,000,000 8,950,000

Control 100,000 91,000 91% 18,200,000 18,059,000

Uplift 1,000- -1% 200,000- 9,109,000-



Cost-Effective Acquisition

Business Challenge: Find more cost-effective ways to acquire new DDA customers using

direct mailU.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), with $266 billion inassets, is the parent company of U.S. Bank, the 6thlargest commercial bank in the United States.

US Bank use direct mail to entire postal routes to acquirenew DDA customers, but low response rates and liftversus control made even their best targeting modelsunprofitable.

Portrait Uplift delivered more effective targeting modelsusing existing data, and achieved campaign profitabilityby enhancing with new location-based attributes such aslocal product penetration rates and nearest branch drivetime.

Benefits Turned around campaign from loss to profit 100% increase in incremental revenue Generate additional $300K per campaign Can either reduce volume with same net adds,

or achieve more net new DDAs with same volume

IncrementalRevenue($000s)

Previous

champion

Location-enha

nced

UpliftModel

PortraitUplift

Model

Profitability

: Location Enhanced
http://www.dma09.org/?PHPSESSID=e062d7dd0527bed530b0485862b244f9http://www.dma09.org/?PHPSESSID=e062d7dd0527bed530b0485862b244f9


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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

CumulativeUplift

Proportion Targeted

Incremental Gains Chart

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.502.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

CampaignProfitM

Proportion Targeted

Campaign Profitability

Making money from Uplift Modelling

But what is your bonus based on?

Minimise

Costs

Maximise

Sales

Maximise

Profit
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Uplift analysis is a must-consider concept for every

organization with significantcampaign managementactivities.

Gareth Herschel, Gartner, Predictive Modeling Now more than Ever, Gartner Customer360, March 2011
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23/25


Success MUST be Measureable

Immediate increase in customer retentionReduced marketing costs >DK100,000 PA

Incremental revenue of 48M

Revenue per customer 314% higher

Incremental revenue up 327%

Customer retention up >20%

Reduced marketing costs by >10%

Immediate increase in renewals

Customer retention up 300%

Churn decreased by 37.5%

20% reduction in churn

36% increase in churn reductionProducts held percustomer up by 50%

Increased revenue by $1.2M per month

ROI from a single campaign

Profitability rose 10%

Uplift doubles customer retention

Financial Services Telecommunications

Insurance

Other Markets
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24/25


Summary

Measure, Measure, Measure the

incremental effect and look for negativeeffects

Model on increase in response probabilitynot response probability

Model on saveability not churn or attritionlikelihood

Avoid the sleeping dogs, the lost causesand the sure things

Focus on the persuadables
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25/25

Every connection is a new opportunity

Contact Details:

Chris Lowther, [email protected] Bowes Business InsightLevel 7, 1 Elizabeth Plaza, North Sydney,

NSW 2060, AustraliaO: +61 (0)2 9437 6255 | M: +61 (0)430 721 703 | www.pbinsight.comemail: [email protected]/in/chrislowtherwww.pbinsight.com.au/products/portrait-customer-interaction-suite/Twitter:@lowtherc

Every connection is a new opportunity
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