chris bishop microsoft research cambridge€¦ · microsoft research cambridge . information...

37
Machine Learning The Future of Computing? Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge

Upload: others

Post on 23-Aug-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Machine Learning The Future of Computing?

Chris Bishop

Microsoft Research Cambridge

Page 2: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Information Technology Exponential growth!

Data-driven

Manufacturing Retail

Government Defence

Education

Healthcare

Page 3: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

What can you do with data?

Visualization

Calculate simple statistics

Make predictions (traditional machine learning)

Build models (probabilistic inference)

Page 5: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 6: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 8: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 9: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

(w1, w2, … wN)

Page 10: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 11: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 12: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Future applications?

gaming

telepresence

sports dance

physiotherapy

surveillance

user interfaces

Page 13: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Movie Recommender

Page 14: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 15: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 16: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

I(1 > 2)

Gaussian

s1

Gaussian

s2

Gaussian

1

Gaussian

2

y12

Page 17: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

y12

1 2

s1 s2

Page 18: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

y12

1 2

s1 s2

Page 19: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

y12

1 2

s1 s2

Page 20: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

y12

1 2

s1 s2

Page 21: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Convergence

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Le

vel

0 100 200 300 400

Number of Games

char (Elo)

SQLWildman (Elo)

char (TrueSkill™)

SQLWildman (TrueSkill™)

Page 22: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

TrueSkillTM

Page 23: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Probabilistic Programming

http://research.microsoft.com/infernet

John Winn, Tom Minka, John Guiver, et al.

Page 24: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Infer.NET compiler

C# compiler C# Algo-

rithm

Inference Engine

Probabilistic program (model)

Observed values

Algorithm execution

Probability distributions

---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------

How Infer.NET works

Page 25: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 26: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Healthcare

Page 27: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Education

Page 28: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 29: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 30: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

“Big data”

?

len

gth

temperature

Page 31: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

Derived Information

David Stillwell, Michal Kosinski (Cambridge Psychometrics Centre), Thore Graepel (MSR Cambridge) PNAS

www.myPersonality.org

Page 32: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 33: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 34: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 35: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education

http://research.microsoft.com/~cmbishop

Page 36: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education
Page 37: Chris Bishop Microsoft Research Cambridge€¦ · Microsoft Research Cambridge . Information Technology Exponential growth! Data-driven Manufacturing Retail Government Defence Education