cias and its application as ‘climascope’ …. an adaptation tool

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS and its Application as ‘CLIMASCOPE’ …. An

Adaptation ToolCommunity Integrated Assessment

System

Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre




• What stakeholders need • What is CIAS?

• Applications of CIAS 1: Avoided impacts

• Applications of CIAS 2: The role of deforestation

• Applications of CIAS 3: The Wallace Initiative

• Application 4 – CLIMASCOPE – the future

OUTLINE




• Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future climate policies (e.g. carbon tax regimes) compared with no-climate policy scenarios

• They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections

• The integrated model CIAS can be used to provide such information

PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(MITIGATION)




• Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future emission scenarios

• Hence they need to know the potential future local/regional climate changes and local/regional climate impacts

• They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections, and assistance with dealing with the issue of alternative future emission scenarios

• CIAS can be used to provide such information

PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(ADAPTATION)




WHAT IS THE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SYSTEM(CIAS) ?

Involves the stakeholder community…!

Web portal

Uncertainty Analysis:

ParametersModules

MULTI:-institutional

-platform-language

Flexibly linked

modularsystem




• Set of linked modules that communicate across language/platform barriers

• Different sets (configurations) of modules linked for different applications

• Modules may stay at institutions or be handled at UEA

• Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis: Latin hypercube sampling across pdfs of various statistical forms; alternative GCM patterns, etc

HOW DOES CIAS WORK?




EXISTING CIAS WEB PORTAL

• User selection of alternative configurations of modules

• User selection of module parameters• User control of uncertainty analysis• User access control• Viewing of output• Some scientific foolproofing (e.g. ensuring

model cannot run if user tries to use modules inconsistently)




BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS

Emissions

Impacts Downscaledclimate

Climate

Mitigation

Adaptation

Drivers




SCM: Simple Climate Model

MAGICC (UEA)

ESM: Emissions of GHG

DSM: DownScaling model

CLIMGEN(UEA)

ICLIPS BiomeShifts (PIK)

0.5 degreeResolutionMaps of SurfaceTemperature And Rainfall

Degree Day Model (Reading)

Wallace Initiative for bioclimaticModelling (CIAT, WWF US)

Emissions scenariogenerator

Hydrological Model, MACWater Stress& Flooding predictors

(Reading)

DIVA (Southampton)




CIAS portal: General view

Task selection area

Working area: The content of this area depends on the selected task




CIAS portal: Executing a coupling

Select the coupling you want to execute Create an execution context

Select the module you want to configure

Select the parameter you want to configure

Select the type of configuration for the parameterSelect the type of distribution for the parameter

Set the parameters of the distribution function. In this example we use the Davies distribution to emulate Andronova’s PDF for climate sensitivity

Write a name and description for the execution

Start executionSelect the number of samples for the Latin hypercube




CIAS portal: Managing results




CIAS Application 1: Avoided Impacts

• Analysis of AVOID scenarios (www.uk.avoid.net)

• Compares policy scenarios with reference

• What climate changes are avoided?

• What impacts are avoided?

• What carbon tax regimes are required to effect these?



and receives additional support from the DTI AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Analysis of global emissions trajectories

Business-as-usual scenario

Policy scenario

1

3

2

4

Varied:1. Peak year for

emissions2. BAU (pre-peak)

emissions3. Emission

reduction rate post-peak

4. Emission floor




DOWNSCALER CLIMGEN (UEA)• Pattern scaling based on interpolation btwn 1961-1990,

and 2071-2100 : produces change field• New downscaled climate = change + monthly mean

climate + current variability• 19 different AOGCM patterns• 8 climate variables: min, max & mean

monthly/seasonal/annual temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure, cloud cover, wet-day frequency, and sea-surface temperature

• 0.5 degree resolution




CIAS Results d: ClimGen: Local temperature rise relative to 1990

(in African National Park at Lat 0, Long 34.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge

sin

ce

19

90

C

Stabilisationat 450 ppmCO2

A1 Baselinescenario




AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts

% of impacts avoided

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Incr

ease

dw

ater

scar

city

Flu

vial

floo

dris

k

Coa

stal

floo

dris

k

Coa

stal

man

grov

e

Dec

reas

edcr

opsu

itabi

lity

Soy

bean

prod

uctiv

ity

Coo

ling

requ

irem

ents

% o

f im

pa

cts

av

oid

ed

2016-5-L 2030-5-L

Jolene Cook

Blue bars to be removed (might need to change the colour of the remaining bars though! Colours should match other plots.)Remove boxes around plot and legend (will make it look like there's more space).




010203040

Baseline 550 ppmCO2

500 ppmCO2

450 ppmCO2

CIAS results g: % biome areas transformed in 2100 (ICLIPS)




ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT

• Climgen monthly timeseries used to drive drought simulations

• SPI index indicates how much modelled rainfall X in month i differs from 1951-2000 mean rainfall in that month, normalised by standard deviation

• Set a threshold value of SPI such that 2-6 drought events in e.g. each of 9 UK regions over 1951-2000 –result 2.4 - is the “current”.




CIAS results e: # months under drought conditions

CURRENT

550 ppmv,2050-2099

450 ppmv,2050-2099

A1FI HadCM32050-2099

550 ppmv,2050-2099

Observed1951-2000




CIAS Application 2: Role of tropical deforestation rates in climate policy

• Consider historical emissions to 2000

• Emis-Gen: CO2 reduction policies begin at TS(start)…over

TT(transition) period to reach R/yr, reduce thereafter at R/yr

• Other gases scaled with CO2

• Consider Rmax~3%/yr …for fossil fuel emissions and LUC outside the tropics

• 80% emission reductions from 2000 to 2050 implies 3.1%/yr

• Consider different potential rates of tropical deforestation…zero, business-as-usual, and maximum




CIAS Application 2. Halting tropical deforestation essential to achieve 2°C target even with stringent

cuts in fossil fuel emissions

020406080

100

0 1 2 3 4

Annual deforestation rate, GtC 2010-2100

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f n

ot

ex

ce

ed

ing

th

res

ho

ld

2°C

3°C




Wallace InitiativeMapping the Refugia in a Warming World

TRAFFIC




CIAS Application 3: Wallace Initiative

• Links downscaled climate projections from CIAS to MaxENT based bioclimatic modelling

• Initial application to identify refugia …– For wild crop types; eco-crops

– For terrestrial species

– For commercial marine species (fish and invertebrates) – in negotiation

• To aid design of future protected area systems




Application 4: CLIMASCOPEWeb portal at which outputs of CIAS can be accessed

simply. Initially we are making available: • Projections of potential future local/regional

climate changes• Projections of potential future climate impacts • Across a range of emission scenarios and

socioeconomic futures including mitigation scenarios

• Providing information on uncertainty in future projections e.g. sensitivity to GCM pattern used in down-scaling




CLIMASCOPE DETAIL• 8 climate variables including SST

• Annual, seasonal or monthly output• Users can request mean output over a time slice/ask for

annual time series

• Access to codes not permitted

• Traceable account of origin of data

• Key references and logos of authors/institutions to be credited

• Global commons license

• Training, on line workshops




CONCLUSION• CIAS is being applied to provide policy relevant

information to adaptation and mitigation planners• CIAS will soon provide free regional climate

projections for adaptation planners via CLIMASCOPE

• Unique in providing free choice of emissions scenarios including mitigation scenarios, uncertainty analysis, and ultimately impact projections

• Since CIAS is a system that links modules together flexibly it can continually grow to cover new regions/sectors as stakeholder demand changes

cias and its application as ‘climascope’ …. an adaptation tool

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