1. The Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS) Natalia Turkina04/04/2012 Dmytro Pustovalov

2. Agenda1. Introduction of the integration2. Stages of the Integration within the CIS3. Commercial connections within and outside CIS4. FDI in and outflows5. Labor market6. External relations of the integration7. Effects of the crisis8. Future and conclusion 2 3. 3 4. Key indicators of the CIS 20102010 GDP, mln GDP in % of 2010 GDP perCIS Rank World Rank CountryPopulationInt.$CIS capita, Int.$CIS276,821,900 3,120,255 100.00% Russia 16142,905,200 2,229,000 71.42% 16,840Ukraine 2 3845,962,900306,3009.80%6,658 Kazakhstan 3 5216,196,800193,8006.20% 12,050Belarus 4 58 9,480,200128,4004.10% 14,178 Azerbaijan 5 71 9,077,000 90,1502.90%9,869 Uzbekistan 6 7328,233,200 86,0702.80%3,090Turkmenistan 7 98 5,105,000 36,6401.20%7,832Armenia 8129 3,299,000 17,2700.55%5,354 Tajikistan 9134 7,616,000 14,6100.47%2,147 Kyrgyzstan10138 5,382,800 11,8500.38%2,257Moldova11142 3,563,800 10,6000.34%3,087 4Source: World Bank Database 5. CIS and the World, 2010 TerritoryIndiaPopulation 2% BrazilChina 7%China 7% EU-27 23%3%Rest of theworld CIS 40% Rest of the 16%India world 17%58%EU-27 USA Gross Domestic ProductUSA 8%CISBrazil 7%5% 3%4% China India14% 6% Rest of the worldBrazil30%3% EU-27 USA22% 21%Source: CIS Statcometee Database CIS5 4% 6. Stages of integration within the CISThe CIS Customs Union in 1996 (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan)Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or EurAsEC) with theaim of creating a full-fledged common market:Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, TajikistanCommon economic space and freedom of movement among themembers of EurAsECForming a broader EU-type economic alliance of former Sovietstates (Eurasian Union by 2015)CISFTA signed on 18 October 2011 among 8 CIS member states:Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Moldova and Armenia.6 7. Commercial connectionswithin and outside the CIS: IMPORTSHARE OF THE CIS AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THEWORLD IN TOTAL IMPORTS OF THE CIS CIS others73% 67% 54% 46%33% 27% 2000 2005 2010 Source: CIS Statcometee Database7 8. Commercial connectionswithin and outside the CIS: EXPORT SHARE OF THE CIS AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THEWORLD IN TOTAL EXPORTS OF the CIS CIS others81%83%81%19% 17%19% 2000 2005 2010 Source: CIS Statcometee Database8 9. Export specialization Indices of theCIS (RCA Indices, 2000, World Bank) Arm. Azer.Belaru. Kazak. Kyrgyz. Mold. Ru. Tajik.Turkm.Ukr. Uzbek. CIS (2.0)Food and live animals CIS (1.7) CIS (1.1) non CIS (4)CIS (1.1) CIS (1.1)CIS(12.6) CIS (19.3) non CISnon CIS CIS (32.3)Beverages and tobacco non CIS (1.1)CIS (4.1) (1.1)(3.1) non CIS (6.4) CIS (3.2) CIS (1.1)CIS (1.6)CIS(7.8) CrudeCIS (3.5)non CIS non CISnon CIS CIS (1.4) non CIS non CISCIS(3.1)non CISmaterials, inedible, except fuelnon CIS (4.6)(1.3) (1.7) CIS (5.4) (4.9)non CIS (5.1) (1.4)(7.3) non CIS (6.9) non CIS (4.6)(12.9) CIS(4.2) CIS(4.2)CIS(2.7)Mineral fuels, lubricants andnon CISnon CIS non CIS non CIS CIS(8.7) related materialsCIS (1.3) (9.4)(3.5) (5.7)CIS (2.6)(5.7)CIS (2.2) non CIS (6.7)Animal and vegetable oils, fatsCIS (2.7) and waxes CIS (1.3)non CIS (4.2)non CIS (5.1)non CISChemicals and related products (2.4) CIS (1.5)CIS(3.4)Manufactured goods classifiednon CISnon CISchiefly by material non CIS (3.9)(1.1) (4.6) Machinery and transport equipment CIS (1.3)Miscellaneous manufactured CIS (2.6) articles non CIS (3.6)non CIS (3.5)CIS(902.6) CIS (1.3)CIS (44.8)Commodities and transactions CIS (11.8) non CIS non CIS non CIS non CISnot else classified non CIS (2.6)CIS (34.3)(22.9)(2.9)(2.5) non CIS (1.1)non CIS (1.1)9 (12.4)Source: Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries, World Bank 10. Export specialization of the CIScountries Export by product, 2010 Export by destination in 2010 500 1%3%2% Europe 450 400 6% CIS 350 12% Asia 300 57% bln $ 250 19% North America 200 150 Middle East 100Agriculture products50Fuels, mining products 0Manufactured goods200520092010 10 Source: International Trade Statistics 2011, WTO 11. Import to the CIS countries Import to the CIS countries from theother countries of the World, 2010Mostly imported products: Machinery and transport Germanyequipment13% 1% Spain Medical suppliesItaly Miscellaneous manufactured5% 37%ChinaarticlesHollandUK19%USATurkey 5% 6%Finland4%2%France2% 3%3%Source: CIS Statcometee Database11 12. Inbound FDI per capita, USD12 13. FDI flow to the CIS countries Source: UNCTAD 13 14. Who and where? The main investors: China, India, Turkey, SouthKorea, the EU. The main sectors for investment: fuels, miningproducts, transportation andtelecommunication, retail and real estate. The main recipients of the CIS investments: NorthAmerica and the EU. The main sectors of the CIS outward FDI: primarysector (petroleum), secondary sector (metal andmetal products) and services (finance). 14 15. Labor market in CIS countries Geographical proximity, transparent borders Historical ties and demographic complementarity (visa-free movements andfreedom of labor movement among members of EurAsEC) Common transport infrastructurePsychological easiness to move (language, former commonterritory) 15 16. Countries with the largest number ofinternational migrants, 2010 (millions)16 17. Migrant workers abroad estimates(thousands) in CIS 17 18. Relations of member states Partners or competitions? 18 19. Many-sided cooperation of CIScountries19 20. Effects of the crisis on theintegrationSource: IMF WorldEconomic Outlook20Sept. 2011 21. Effects of the crisis on theintegrationSource: IMF WorldEconomic Outlook21Sept. 2011 22. Potential of CIS16% 20% 40% 25%25% 13% 11% 10% 22 23. Conclusions 1. Close integration Soft divorce from the USSR family23 24. Conclusions2. No supranational power of the CIS forming of sovereign states + integration into the world economy24 25. Conclusions 3. Regulation of the possible military conflicts(the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan still exists)25 26. Conclusions 4. Different opinion of the members on the future way of cooperation26 27. References CIS Statcometee Database// http://www.cisstat.com International Trade Statistics 2011 - http://www.wto.org Post-Soviet integration: CST, CSTO, CRRF etc. by SergeiMarkedonov - http://www.opendemocracy.net , 20.01.2010 RIA Novosti - www.rian.ru Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CISCountries - World Bank Working paper 38, 2004 The Commonwealth of Independent States: Is there anythingto be explained by Neo-Functionalists? by Rufat R. Babayev -http://www.caei.com.ar/ World Investment Report 2007: TransnationalCorporations, Extractive Industries and Development. NewYork and Geneva: United Nations, UNCTAD, 2007 27