cisco systems 2013 white paper - top 50 game changers in manufacturing

50 Years of Growth, Innovation and Leadership

A Frost & Sullivan White Paper

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Top 50 Game-Changers Impacting Manufacturing & Production Sector Accelerating U.S. Manufacturing and Production Competitiveness

http://www.frost.com

Frost & Sullivan

CONTENTS

Objective ................................................................................................................................. 3

Scope and Definitions ............................................................................................................ 3

Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 5

The 4 Mega Forces Driving Convergence and U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance ............. 9

Impact of Convergence ......................................................................................................... 11

The 8 Manufacturing Convergence Trends .......................................................................... 13

Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 23

Coding Convention for Appendix Section ........................................................................... 23

Critical Future State Requirements and Game-Changers for Manufacturing Operations and Risk Management ............................................................. 25

E-convergence ........................................................................................................................ 27

Expert Systems ...................................................................................................................... 29

Control on the Go .................................................................................................................. 30

Knowledge Management Systems ........................................................................................ 31

Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing ................................................................................ 32

Service Delivery Innovation .................................................................................................. 33

Collaborative Manufacturing ................................................................................................ 34

Emerging Innovators ............................................................................................................. 36

Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 36


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OBJECTIVE

The convergence of global Mega Forces provides a framework to evaluate emerging manufacturing Mega Trends. Based on Frost & Sullivan’s Vision of the Future of Manufacturing and Production 2.0 (Visi-MAP 2.0) research, recognizing these Mega Trends allows manufacturers to innovate, design, and drive next-generation manufacturing best practices.

Leveraging this cutting-edge research, The Top 50 Game-Changers in Manufacturing & Production 2013 analysis identifies companies that are driving next-generation manufacturing best practices. The factors that were objective inputs to the evaluation process include:

• High impact on U.S. manufacturing competitiveness

• Current and future market growth potential

• Growth vision

• Ability to deliver toward critical future state requirements

This white paper is part of the Top 50 Game-Changers in manufacturing and production research and focuses on the Top 30 Game-Changers in Manufacturing Software. Frost & Sullivan’s vision is to help contribute catalytically to the visionary innovation process rather than presenting just a ringside view of industry developments. As part of this process, we have identified the companies we see as catalyzing the future state requirements of manufacturing and production—now!

SCOPE AND DEFINITIONS

The Visi-MAP 2.0 research platform—which provides a unique vantage point to observe best practices across the manufacturing ecosystem—has brought forward Frost & Sullivan’s Top 50 game-changers. This initiative is built on 600 interviews and discussions with thought leaders from around the globe. The participants were highly diverse and included:

• Executives from major global end-user verticals (automotive, aerospace and defense, chemicals, consumer packaged goods (CPG), food and beverages, mining, oil and gas, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, power, pulp and paper, and water/wastewater)

• Executives across a variety of management levels with a bias toward C- and VP-levels

• Executives from across the manufacturing value chain, including manufacturers, distributors, system integrators, supply chain partners, and solution providers

These discussions coalesced around the broad themes of future vision (technology, industry future, challenge themes and approaches), factory of the future, and convergence issues that would be most influential in changing the manufacturing and process landscape. This intelligence has been distilled into a framework of manufacturing Mega Trends that will help process and discrete manufacturers understand the current and future challenges.


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In the process of this research, Frost & Sullivan identified key companies accelerating the journey toward the vision of the future. To bring objectivity and rigor to the synthesis of the Top 50 Game-Changers, we deployed a Decision Support Matrix (DSM) model. The DSM compares companies’ performance relative to each other by integrating quantitative and qualitative metrics, including impact on productivity and effects on competitiveness. The DSM allowed our research team to objectively analyze each company’s performance on key criterion relative to its top competitors. The analysis does not imply any endorsement or strategic advisory, and Frost & Sullivan is absolved of any legal claims whatsoever.

In this white paper, Frost & Sullivan has scrutinized more than 100 companies, products, technologies, solutions and services in the manufacturing software category with a focus on which of them would have the greatest impact on U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, productivity, and future growth. The objective is to demystify the best practices of companies in the field and use Frost & Sullivan’s reach to promote their adoption.

This white paper introduces the reader to the following concepts:

• Manufacturing Mega Forces – Mega Forces are overarching trends prevalent across all industries and geographies that are driving convergence.

• Manufacturing Mega Trends – Distilled from the Mega Forces, these are sub-trends that will affect the manufacturing and process landscape in specific ways (addressed in the research).

• Holy Grail – A highly sought-after end goal. To attain the Holy Grail, there are several critical future state requirements that need to be fulfilled. At present, the market is yet to achieve this desired vision of the Holy Grail.

• Critical Future State Requirement – The path to achieve the Holy Grail is through stepping stones of critical future state requirements. Companies that have products, technologies, solutions or services that help drive and deliver future state requirements are featured as “Game-Changers.”



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INTRODUCTION

U.S. Manufacturing’s Fractured Fairy Tale:

The seismic shifts in the global manufacturing industry over the past decade have created a new order, driving manufacturing offshoring, re-defining supply chains and decimating manufacturing jobs. Developing countries in Asia leapt to prominence, flooding the market with inexpensive imports and creating jobs.

Until the early 2000s, the United States was an undisputed economic superpower, largely due to its manufacturing prowess. By any metric, manufacturing is the bulwark of the country’s economy, representing 68 percent of all R&D, 12 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), generating more than $1.7 trillion in economic activity every year, and accounting for more than 80 percent of all exports. Manufacturing also powers the U.S. service economy by developing and implementing technologies that keep it competitive in the global market. The sector generated millions of jobs in a range of direct support services and millions more in indirect services in other local industries. However, the global economy’s tumultuous ride from 2001 to 2008 challenged the United States’ manufacturing sector like never before.

While still a formidable global player, the U.S. is no longer the leader it once was. According to the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), four of the country’s top competitors had a higher manufacturing value added per capita in 2012 (see Chart 1.1). The dilution of the United States’ dominance in global manufacturing can be attributed to multiple reasons. Employment rates in the sector took a tumble and although the output rose marginally, the lack of available trained resources affected per-capita output. The four fundamental shifts that are driving renewed interest in U.S. manufacturing renaissance are:

1. Rising wages in developing economies

2. Shale gas and oil availability and its impact on energy-intensive industries

3. Technology innovation and focus

4. Productivity and automation gains negating arbitrage advantages


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Chart 1.1: Manufacturing Value Added to GDP, 2008-2013

2.64

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2008

0.08 0.05 0.23

0.14

0.27

0.23

0.03 0.02

U.S., 4.3%

Chile, 7.3%

Brazil, 3.2%

China 12.4%

Russia, 2.5%

Europe, 0.8%

India, 8.1%

Indonesia, 7.9% Malaysia, 10.8%

0.28

0.24

Apple will invest $100 million to bring Macproduction back to the US next year, saysTim Cook

Malaysia-Moving Foward Up theGlobal Value ChainSound economic policies and a focus onhigh-value activities puts Malaysia in anadvantageous position for future growth.

Obama Name-Checks 3-DPrinting, Calls For 15“Innovation Hubs”AFTER OPENING A HUB DEVOTED TO 3-D PRINTING LAST YEAR, THEPRESIDENT ASKED CONGRESS TO CHANNEL MORE FUNDING TOWARDTECH

Note: Values for 2013 are estimated Source: GET-IT, Bloomberg, Business Today, Frost & Sullivan analysis

The primary reason behind the potential resurgence of manufacturing in the U.S. is the cost of energy, especially gas production. As shown in Chart 1.2, the U.S. became a net energy exporter around 2010 and will continue to be one due to the shale oil and gas revolution. The U.S. downstream oil and gas market has seen an investment of nearly $15 billion to increase ethylene production capacity by 33 percent. Traditionally, regions such as the Middle East and China held the top honors. Availability of natural gas as feedtock is strongly positioning the U.S. to become the world’s largest petrochemical hub by 2020. The country’s production of natural gas and crude oil is at a 20-year high, and this has sent out a flare for companies looking to relocate back to the U.S., especially energy-intensive industries such as metal, metal refining, chemicals and petrochemicals. The shale oil and gas revolution is expected to drive other industries such as chemicals to their own “renaissance,” supported by comparatively cheap feedstock and low-cost energy.

Unlike Europe and Japan, where natural gas prices have been on a sharp ascendency since 2008, prices are at a 12-year low in the United States. Further, shale gas production is projected to increase from 8.13 trillion cubic feet in 2012 to 16.70 trillion cubic feet in 2040, accounting for a little more than half of the total gas production. This net cost advantage and abundance of energy sources are increasingly diverting manufacturing traffic from Asia and Europe back to the United States, promising resurgence in manufacturing that could propel the U.S. back to the manufacturing spotlight.



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Chart 1.2: U.S. Hydrocarbon Asset Trends, 2000-2012

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Sources: EIA, U.S. Refining estimates

On another front, the emergence of a new consumer class in emerging markets—and a new breed of emerging innovators—has weakened the United States’ hold on the high-technology global export market. Contrary to general belief, labor costs are not the main reason for this decline. In fact, the United States is losing out in high-technology manufacturing to both low-wage nations such as China and India, as well as high-wage nations such as Germany and Japan. Global product launches and empowered consuming class have driven a new surge for hi-tech, and manufacturing is no longer simply restricted to goods production. Consumers are demanding a big bang for their buck, catapulting value additions, innovations and services to the top of the manufacturing industry’s priority lists. Chart 1.3 presents the trade balance in high-technology goods trajectory for the United States from 1990 to 2015. It stands to reason that stagnation would ring the death knell in a market as dynamic and diverse as manufacturing. This receding form of the United States in global markets, as seen in the chart for both high-technology and manufactured products, underlines the alarming loss of invaluable manufacturing expertise, and eventually, quality of life. To arrest the slide, manufacturers across the board are looking to drive productivity and gains through innovations in materials, processes, faster time to market, and the factories of the future.


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Chart 1.3: U.S. Trade Balance for High-Tech and All Manufactured Products, 1990-2015

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While the story on trade balance is somewhat depressing, there is a new chapter in progress—the industry is staging a recovery of sorts. The increase of 0.24 percent over 2010-2011 is almost imperceptible, but it is the longest period of sustained growth since 2001. R&D and production might of the emerging nations is forcing manufacturers in the United States and other developed economies to increasingly collaborate and innovate on a global basis. As the business landscape has become inclusive like never before, manufacturers are abandoning old strategies for more nuanced ones to deal with interwoven challenges relating to regulatory procedures, environmental issues, and currency fluctuations. One of the key issues that will receive an inordinate focus is productivity. While the challenge of decline in skilled workforce is perennial, end users are focusing on improving labor productivity through implementation of automation, technology-focused solutions, training, simulation, information technology integration, digital manufacturing, smart integrated operations and various other best practices. As shown in Chart 1.4, labor productivity is clearly increasing with a reduction in labor costs. This situation is very favorable to the U.S. manufacturing industry as it competes with other major low-cost production regions of the world.

Labor Population vs. Labor Productivity

As labor costs increase in emerging markets, the adoption of next-generation technologies is having a positive effect on labor productivity in the U.S. market. Shown below in Chart 1.4 is the trend of unit labor cost declining with progressive increase in labor productivity. Part of the progressive increase could be attributed to advanced manufacturing and automation across vertical industries. As industries re-shore back to the U.S., there will be a big push for automation-related technologies and modernization of existing facilities.



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Chart 1.4: Trends in Labor Productivity (U.S.), 2000-2012

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But, as with most changing landscapes, there is not an end but a continued evolution as industries and companies adapt, innovate, and thrive in new paradigms. Exploring the journey to these new paradigms has led Frost & Sullivan to identify four Mega Forces that are converging to create manufacturing Mega Trends that will provide opportunities to take U.S. manufacturing competitiveness to the next level. In this process, some companies have risen to the top based not only on vision, but the excellent execution of that vision.

In the sections below, we elaborate on the Mega Forces framework and the game-changing companies that are catalyzing the future state.

THE FOUR MEGA FORCES DRIVING CONVERGENCE AND THE RESURGENCE OF U.S. MANUFACTURING

Frost & Sullivan has developed a Vision of the Future of Manufacturing (Visi-MAP 2.0) based on in-depth analysis of the global industrial automation marketplace and numerous customer interviews. The Visi-MAP 2.0 distills a multitude of forces into four market Mega Forces: Globalization, Technology, Aging Workforce and Smart (see Chart 1.5). Interactions between these major market forces have led to the occurrence of eight key “Manufacturing Convergence Trends” that are promoting the development of 13 key end-state attainment goals, which we call “Holy Grails,” that are leading to a revival of U.S. manufacturing.


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Chart 1.5: Vision of the Future of Manufacturing and Production (Visi-MAP 2.0): Convergence of Four Market Forces

15.3%: Uptick inmanufacturing as a %

of GDP in U.S.

$110bn: Investments focused on driving sustainability overthe past 10 years

32.0%: Largestshare of global

R&D expendituresfrom the U.S.

1.5x: Increase inlabor productivity

over the past 10 years

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

Source: Frost & Sullivan, Visi-Map 2.0 Report

The four Mega Forces are described as follows:

Globalization: Globalization across manufacturing verticals has thrown up a variety of challenges, including low-cost competitors and evolving customer demands from emerging, developing and developed economies for high-quality, feature-rich products in a wide variety of models. This is forcing U.S. manufacturers to look beyond their traditional comfort zones and take calculated risks. A best-use case for a global manufacturing network is Boeing’s 747, which uses 80 different suppliers across the world to co-create the final product in Everett, Washington.

Technology: The need to be globally competitive is driving U.S. manufacturers to implement new and disruptive technologies and business solutions. The U.S. continues to be the largest R&D spender. There has been a large push in the U.S. market to drive open innovation platforms. As immigration policies undergo potential changes, the U.S. could become the cornerstone of next-generation innovation focused on industrial markets.

Aging Workforce: The retirement of aging workforces and the potential loss of both their collective knowledge and mentoring capabilities is a leading cause of concern. The industry’s minor recovery could reverse the job outflow from the country, even though the chances of that happening may appear bleak at the outset. Manufacturing employment declined from 17.26 million jobs in 2000 to 11.6 million jobs in 2011, and 42,000 factories shut down during this period. Over the past 20 years, the percentage of skilled workforce dipped from 16 percent in 1992 to 11.4 percent in 2012, even though the labor pool increased from 13.97 billion to 160.66 billion in the same period. Left to “normal” trends, this increase in manufacturing activity and jobs might continue to limp along for the foreseeable future. However, it could also be argued that even in emerging economies, the talented networking pool has been a challenge despite favorable demographics. Corporations in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries are increasingly looking at partnerships with universities to train talent for both manufacturing and management positions.



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Smart: Smart is defined as any improvements that drive waste out of existing business processes. The infusion of “smart” into existing processes and systems results in improvement of productivity, savings and profitability. It will ultimately help develop on-demand manufacturing systems and processes that respond, in real time, to rapidly evolving changes in market demand.

Frost & Sullivan has used Visi-MAP 2.0 to analyze the interactions between these four Mega Forces and identifies eight key Manufacturing Convergence Trends, as shown in Chart 1.6.

Chart 1.6: Key Manufacturing Convergence Trends

COLLABORATIVE MANUFACTURINGDigital manufacturing, adaptive

manufacturing, supply chain collaboration

SERVICE DELIVERY INNOVATIONRemote asset management, lifecycle service

FRUGAL ENGINEERING ANDMANUFACTURING

De-contenting, personalizedmass customization

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Collaboration wikis, intuitiveself-learning organization

RISK MANAGEMENTSafety, cyber security, enterprisecompliance management

E-CONVERGENCEVirtualization, cloud computing, business and manufacturing intelligence

EXPERT SYSTEMSRole-tailored software, intuitive interfaces,alarm management, process optimization

CONTROL ON THE GOWorkforce mobility, smart devicesand remote monitoring

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

Source: Frost & Sullivan, Visi-MAP 2.0 Report

IMPACT OF CONVERGENCE

Globalization and Technology:

Borderless integration of trade, resources and information across regions has enabled companies to be exceedingly competitive in business. The rise in business complexity due to cross-integration of global operations and value networks is directly proportional to the propensity of risk and security. Some of the solutions that can be implemented to manage these critical issues arise from manufacturing convergence trend #1—Manufacturing Operations Risk Management.

Smart and Technology:

The combination of new technologies and smart investments being applied to manufacturing operations is creating a radical shift away from current manufacturing and production methods. Several key technology disruptors that have shifted and shaped the manufacturing landscape in the past five years have been centered on machine language and Internet infrastructure. The need to comprehensively harness technology to manage the complex world of data and applications has led to the emergence of manufacturing convergence trend #2—E-convergence.


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Technology and Graying Workforce:

The perennial issue of an aging workforce and the potential entry of digital natives across U.S. manufacturers has opened an interesting paradigm. Operations costs, including direct and indirect labor costs, productivity losses, down time or re-training the workforce must be managed effectively if U.S. manufacturers are to be competitive in the global marketplace. The classic situation of device complexity/workforce gap requires the intervention of solutions that are a subset of manufacturing convergence trend #3—Expert Systems.

Smart, Technology and Graying Workforce:

Beyond bridging the ever-expanding device complexity/workforce gap, an added dimension of posterity is the influence of new location-based and mobile computing models that allow operational personnel to have 24x7 anytime, anywhere access and control over enterprise information. There has been significant benefits in leveraging operator mobility, which directly relates to manufacturing convergence trend #4—Control on the Go.

Smart and Graying Workforce:

Border-lining on the pre-discussed issues, a key challenge to stem knowledge attrition was the need for solutions to better manage the application experience of the retiring workforce. The future would require systems that are intrinsically intuitive and that have been built on the knowledge of these retiring workforces. The convergence of these two forces has resulted in manufacturing convergence trend #5—Knowledge Management System.

Smart and Globalization:

Wafer-thin margins in the manufacturing industry continue, despite the use of advanced technologies and automation. However, a starkly different business model emerged when end users started demanding plain vanilla-styled products and services with no excess features attached. Most of the emerging markets preferred these types of solutions over commercial-of-the-shelf offerings. The ability to deliver “must-have” solutions led to the emergence of manufacturing convergence trend #6—Frugal Engineering.

Smart, Globalization and Technology:

This Mega Force triad shows the consequences of convergence between a flat world with super-efficient business processes and use of next-generation technologies. Accelerated business at optimal costs and user-centered processes are some of the core needs of the future. These require a vastly seamless collaborative business model that exceeds end-user expectations through innovative service models. This Mega Force triad has enabled two manufacturing convergence trends:

1. Manufacturing convergence trend #7—Service Delivery Innovation

2. Manufacturing convergence trend #8—Collaborative Manufacturing



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THE EIGHT MANUFACTURING CONVERGENCE TRENDS

The eight Manufacturing Convergence Trends mentioned above can be distilled further to identify 13 key enabling technologies, or “Holy Grails,” and 30 “Critical Future State Requirements.” Using Frost & Sullivan’s proven best-practice analysis process, this white paper will discuss game-changing companies operating within each of those critical future state requirements.

The complete framework with critical future state requirements and Holy Grails is represented in the chart below. The Mega Forces converge to enable the manufacturing convergence trend, which vectors out into several critical future state requirements. These future state requirements are the stepping stones to meet the desired end-state of the Holy Grails listed in the periphery.

Chart 1.7: Critical Future State Requirements and Holy Grails of the Future

VIRTUAL MANUFACTURING

PLATFORM

SMARTANALYTICS

INTUITIVESYSTEMS

SUSTAINABLEAND INTEGRATEDASSET LIFECYCLE

MANAGEMENT

END-TO-ENDMOBILITY

Flexible Business Process forManufacturing Risk Management

Predictive and PreventiveRisk Intelligence

Integrated Supply-ChainRisk Management

Total Integrated QMS

DID Platform for O&G

Automation Systems Security

Predictive Threat Intelligence Management

Cloud Services for Manufacturing

Enterprise Applications Virtualization

IntegratedAnalytics Platform

In-Memory Analytics

Enterprise Business Discovery Platform

Unified and Total BI

Semantic-Based Intelligence

Smart, Predictive and Preventive Asset Management

Enterprise Mobility for Manufacturing

SMART RISKMANAGEMENT

SMART SECURITYMANAGEMENT

Operator-Driven Collaborationand Optimization

Engineering Simulations

SMART MANUFACTURING

ON-DEMANDAND REAL-TIME

REMOTEMONITORING

INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING

SERVICE ECOSYSTEM

SOURCINGLIFECYCLE

MANAGEMENT

ADAPTIVE ANDCONTINUOUSOPTIMIZATION

ENTERPRISE PROCESSOPTIMIZATION AND

COLLABORATION

DIGITALOPERATIONS

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

Integrated Plant OperationLifecycle Management

Total Plant EcosystemEnergy Optimization

Smart Supplier Sourcing

End-to-End Product Engineeringand Lifecycle Services

Remote Asset Management

End-to-End Supply-Chain Optimization

Total Integrated MES

Virtual Systems and Process Integration

Intelligent Embedded Platform Management

Smart Integrated Operations for Oil and Gas

Smart Integrated Operations for Power and Mining

Smart Business Collaboration

E-CONVERGENCE

EXPERT SYSTEMS

CONTROL ON THE GO

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

SYSTEMS

MANUFACTURINGOPERATIONS

RISK MANAGEMENT

COLLABORATIVEMANUFACTURING

SERVICEDELIVERY

INNOVATION

FRUGAL ENGINEERINGAND MANUFACTURING


Now we will look at the first two convergence trends (Manufacturing Operations Risk Management and E-convergence).


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Chart 1.8: Mapping of Critical Future State Requirements and Holy Grails for Manufacturing Operations Risk Management and E-convergence


PLATFORM

SMARTANALYTICS




Total Integrated QMS

DID Platform for O&G






In-Memory Analytics



GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

E-CONVERGENCE


RISK MANAGEMENT


Manufacturing Convergence Trend #1: Manufacturing Operations Risk Management

For today’s global manufacturers, a key component in achieving sustainable profitability and non-cyclical top-line growth requires adoption of a smart risk and security strategy. The unstable nature of today’s economies and possibilities of enterprise security compromises are increasing at an alarming pace. The supply chain disruptions due to natural calamities in Europe (ash cloud), Japan (Fukushima disaster), Thailand (flood), and viruses such as StuxNet, duqu, etc., are several examples. Such issues have left end users looking desperately for solutions that will enable protection and better state of preparedness from such disruptions. Thus, truly best-in-class manufacturers need to secure manufacturing operations internally and externally to prevent variability in operational performance, while enabling higher returns on capital employed. The desired end-state of this convergence trend can be summarized into two Holy Grails:

Smart Risk Management:

Risk has often been in the background in manufacturing operations. In today’s unstable global milieu, this is no longer the case. As risk management becomes pervasive across manufacturing operations, businesses require much more than siloed risk solution implementation. There is a marked shift in end-user behavior toward adoption of enterprise-class risk management solutions due to the global and dispersed nature of these enterprises. However, the future Holy Grail that end users must reach is “Smart Risk Management.” This state requires implementation of several solutions, each of which mitigates risk across a specific area of the manufacturing value chain. Smart risk management solutions are a state where end users see automated prediction and mitigation of operational risk based on next-generation stochastic optimization models (seamless across structured and un-structured datasets) collected in real time across the manufacturing enterprise. The ability to have an enterprise-wide view of risk



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exposures across the operational landscape is truly a future-state solution providers must deliver. Some of the core critical future state requirements to achieve this Holy Grail are:

1. Total integrated quality management system (TIQMS)

2. Flexible business processes for manufacturing risk management

3. Predictive and preventive risk intelligence

4. Integrated supply chain risk management

Smart Security Management:

The manufacturing industry has typically lagged in terms of adoption of new technologies. However, as the need for cyber security sweeps across critical process and discrete industries, the manufacturing industry observed a tectonic shift in buying behavior toward security-centric solutions. Long-term liabilities, potential downtime, and business outcomes disruptions have created a compelling business case for securing the enterprise outside-in and inside-out. Manufacturing organizations have realized the hard fact that the increase in connected devices is directly proportional to vulnerability. The market for security within manufacturing is also interesting due to several unique challenges, including legacy assets, tight business-to-shop-floor integration, complex supply-chain connectivity, and partner networks. As the market continues to evolve, new challenges emerge for solution providers. The future of industrial cyber security would require prediction, prevention and mitigation of potential cyber threats by continuously controlling and managing all kinds of data leaving and entering the networks in a holistic manner. The network security should also be dovetailed into the perimeter security features so that any compromises would lead to automatic shutdown or safe mitigation of subsequent threats. The research points to these critical future-state requirements as stepping stones to achieve the aforementioned Holy Grail:

1. Defense in depth for critical industries (oil and gas, power generation)

2. Hardware-agnostic platform for automation systems security

3. Predictive and preventive threat intelligence and management


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Manufacturing Convergence Trend 2: E-convergence

The ubiquity of the Internet is driving new ways of doing business and collaborative models of business execution. The convergence of data, communication and business defines electronic convergence or e-convergence. This trend is expected to be immensely disruptive, as the manufacturing industry swings toward adopting advanced technologies like cloud services, virtualization, and analytics as replacements for traditional business processes. This trend brings about business optimization, intuitive systems, remote monitoring, affordability and increased global competitiveness across the manufacturing space, irrespective of the business size of the end user. There are two key Holy Grails as the end-state requirement:

Holy Grails of E-convergence:

Virtual Manufacturing Platforms:

The convergence of IT and manufacturing operational technology has created the need for a scalable platform that minimizes manufacturing costs, while maximizing business collaboration. This is Industrial Revolution 4.0. Seamless interaction between product, process and production systems is enabled by technologies such as M2M, embedded systems, cloud and virtualization. These technologies have drastically cut down on operational expenditure while driving uptime, agility and business flexibility extensively. The future will have mainstream process applications (critical and non-critical) on the cloud, which has the highest encrypted security and enables real-time, role-based and intuitive accessibility to any data online and offline. Streaming and storage technologies will play a very important role in making the virtual manufacturing platform a reality of the future. Further on, the platform will allow seamless interchange of data without the need for middleware as systems talk to each other in an open, collaborative manner. Two critical future state requirements here are:

1. Cloud Services for Manufacturing

2. Enterprise Application Virtualization

Smart Analytics:

Analytics is the next big growth opportunity within manufacturing industries. The Holy Grail of a smart analytics platform is expected to evolve in the future to automatically mine insights from a torrent of relevant data captured. The future of analytics platform will be the centralized platform that gathers and analyzes data to continuously update workflows, based on roles and requirements; provides feedback on every situation; and plays out multiple scenarios and market movements. The system is self-responding and self-healing due to its inherent smart computing nature. This closed-loop nature of operations with analytics makes it not only intelligent, but also highly prescriptive in creating recommendation engines. Two key future state requirements identified here are:

1. Integrated Analytics Platform

2. In-Memory Analytics



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Manufacturing Convergence Trend 3: Expert Systems

In the field of manufacturing software, any system that supplements human intelligence or even substitutes the need for human intervention is termed an “expert system.” An aging workforce is nudging end users toward use of software solutions integrated with artificial intelligence, semantics, and user-defined search capabilities. Further, by providing the filtered and most relevant data to humans, these systems also ease the burden of enterprise-class monitoring and control of business operations. Chart 1.9 shows the mapping of the critical future state requirements and Holy Grails for expert systems.

Chart 1.9: Convergence of the Mapping of Critical Future State and Holy Grails: Expert Systems and Control on the Go

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

INTUITIVESYSTEMS


MANAGEMENT

END-TO-ENDMOBILITY


Total Business Intelligence and Analytics




GRAYING WORKFORCEEXPERT SYSTEMS

CONTROL ON THE GO



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Holy Grails of Expert Systems:

Intuitive Systems:

Next-generation expert systems will be governed by the principles of human-centered design. These intuitive systems will predict the next move, logically estimate the data required by users and proactively provide it in an easily digestible format. The difference between intuitive systems and analytics is that intuitive systems essentially are poised to replace human intelligence. However, the analytics platform would continue to complement human intelligence and feed into these intuitive systems. As such, analytics platform is a key enabler to the development of intuitive systems. Customers have become more technology-savvy and are demanding an immersive, productive and next-generation experience when interacting with systems and solutions. The combinations of these key future requirements make up the Holy Grail of expert systems. The critical future state requirements for this Holy Grail are:

1. Enterprise Business Discovery Platform

2. Unified and Total Business Intelligence

3. Semantic-Based Intelligence

Sustainable and Integrated Asset Lifecycle Management:

The sluggish nature of global economies has forced business owners to extract as much value as possible from both legacy and green field assets. The Holy Grail of sustainable and integrated asset lifecycle maintenance looks beyond traditional computerized maintenance management systems to total maintenance solutions and sustainability in value creation from these assets. Essentially in the future, each asset will need to be monitored as a cost center and a significant emphasis will be placed on gleaning profits and optimized performance from them. The inevitable shift toward activity-based costing will drive next-generation prudent asset management strategies. The critical future state within this Holy Grail is:

1. Smart, Predictive and Preventive Asset Management

Manufacturing Convergence Trend 4: Control on the Go

Mobile control systems, like mobile HMIs and wireless manufacturing control solutions, allow mobility in the hands of operators and supervisors, allowing them to be closer to the production line where real-time decisions need to be made. Mobilizing the manufacturing control system enables personnel with unique, hard-to-replace skills to determine, at the machine, whether the equipment adheres to the key performance indicators (KPIs) or if there are production exceptions that require immediate action. Consequently, the ability to make real-time, on-site decisions guards against unplanned downtime, which increases the plant’s overall profitability. Some of the key enabling technologies for mobile control systems are Mobile M2M Control Solutions and Mobile HMI. The Holy Grail for Control on the Go is end-to-end mobility. Chart 1.9 above shows the mapping of the critical future state requirement for Control on the Go.



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Holy Grail of Control on the Go:

End-to-End Mobility:

The rise of a digital workforce, smartphones, and electronic signatures underlines the need for a robust infrastructure to facilitate mobility within an enterprise. So far, mobility has been restricted to data visibility on smart devices, operator tracking, workforce rounds, and route optimization. However, future trends point toward an end-to-end mobility solution for manufacturing, wherein systems and processes will holistically cover the appropriate production process from design to lifecycle management. The growth of smart devices in the manufacturing industry will breathe fresh air into the industry as the need for front-end applications blossoms into a market of its own. The industry will need to decide upon a cross-platform solution with open integration so that the devices are intrinsically secure and enable plug and play with enterprise networks. This characteristic would cut across both critical and non-critical functions. This will enhance the productivity of the workforce by providing them 24x7 access to information across the enterprise and geographies.

The next set of convergence trends to merit mention is knowledge management systems and frugal engineering. Chart 2.0 demonstrates the convergence of the mapping of critical future state and Holy Grails of these two technologies.

Chart 2.0: Convergence of the Mapping of Critical Future State and Holy Grails: Knowledge Management Systems and Frugal Engineering

Operator-DrivenCollaborationand Optimization


SOURCINGLIFECYCLE

MANAGEMENT



COLLABORATION

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

Integrated Plant OperationLifecycle Management

Total Plant EcosystemEnergy Optimization

Smart SupplierSourcing


SYSTEMS



Manufacturing Convergence Trend 5: Knowledge Management Systems

The increase in device complexity and decrease in skilled workforce availability opens up the need for solutions that bridge the gap between these two. Systems such as simulation, operator collaboration and optimization solutions accomplish this through intelligence, training and intuitive visualizations.


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Holy Grails of Knowledge Management Systems:

Enterprise Process Optimization and Collaboration:

Every process has a set of constants and variables. The manufacturing industry is currently focusing on bringing the variables under control using historical data analysis. The future of process optimization is dynamic control over process parameters collected in real time. Optimization solutions, which are operator-centric, would cut across the enterprise while controlling piece-part plant processes effectively. The ability to achieve total collaboration and optimize diverse parameters in real time helps end users minimize performance variability and maximize operational excellence. The critical future state requirements to meet the Holy Grail state are:

1. Engineering simulation

2. Operator-driven collaboration and optimization

Manufacturing Convergence Trend 6: Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing

Frugal engineering means the ability to do more with less and is a continuation of the concept of value analysis/value engineering activities that became popular in the auto industry during the 1980s and 1990s. Frugal engineering, as applied to manufacturing, seeks to avoid unnecessary costs by using minimal manpower, material, equipment and energy for design, operation, and maintenance in the manufacturing process. The implementation of frugal engineering has led to the progressive creation of sustainable solutions. Some of the key enabling technologies for frugal engineering discussed in this white paper are collaborative sourcing, and adaptive and continuous optimization. Chart 2.0 shows the mapping of critical future state requirements to Holy Grails for Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing.

Holy Grails of Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing:

Sourcing Lifecycle Management:

Material sourcing continues to be the weakest link in the manufacturing value chain due to the need to work with several diverse suppliers across the global landscape. A case in point is Boeing’s sourcing of components from 80 countries. Managing such a complex sourcing value chain will require an integrated solution that covers the entire lifecycle—from sourcing to logistics to material lifecycle management—even after the product is manufactured and is operational. Any issues in the materials or construction should be automatically traced back to the supplier for subsequent corrective and preventive actions. The critical future state requirement to meet the desired end state is:

1. Smart supplier sourcing

Adaptive and Continuous Optimization:

Nowadays, customers across industry verticals seek end-to-end solutions. Even in the case of process optimization, end users prefer a solution that adapts itself to business processes and facilitates continuous process, business, and energy optimization. The future state suggested



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here is optimization based on real-time parameters, enabling continuous improvement based on operational parameters. The critical future state requirement analyzed for this Holy Grail is:

1. Total plant ecosystem energy optimization

Chart 2.1: Convergence of the Mapping of Critical Future State and Holy Grails: Collaborative Manufacturing and Service Delivery Innovation


SMART MANUFACTURING


REMOTEMONITORING


SERVICE ECOSYSTEM

DIGITALOPERATIONS

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

End-to-End Product Engineeringand Lifecycle Services








Smart Business Collaboration COLLABORATIVEMANUFACTURING

SERVICEDELIVERY

INNOVATION

Other prominent convergence trends are collaborative manufacturing and service delivery innovation.

Manufacturing Convergence Trend 7: Service Delivery Innovation

U.S. manufacturers are under pressure to provide products of many variations to the global market, while lowering costs and maintaining high product availability. These pressures are forcing manufacturers to innovate on service strategies. The dispersed nature of assets in difficult-to-reach places, especially in the power and energy sectors, is compelling business owners to use strategic service management techniques to improve customer-centricity and loyalty. Within the domain of service delivery innovation, this white paper will discuss the following critical future state requirements:

1. On-demand and real-time remote monitoring

2. Integrated manufacturing service ecosystem

Chart 2.4, as shown above, shows the mapping of the critical future state requirement for service delivery innovation.


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Holy Grails of Service Delivery Innovation:

On-Demand and Real-Time Remote Monitoring:

Asset performance management continues to account for the lion’s share of operational expenditures throughout the asset’s lifecycle. In the future, as assets become more distributed and geographically dispersed, end users will require their assets to be monitored on demand and in real time. For this to be possible, assets must have open standard connectivity so that remote monitoring technologies can plug in and extract information. This process will eliminate the need for centralized heavy computing power and yet cover a wide portfolio of assets.

Integrated Manufacturing Service Ecosystem:

Services are touted as the next big game-changer in manufacturing. However, the whole definition of pure services has been dynamically changing with the expansion of the service model. In today’s market, end users are not merely seeking after-sales services but are looking at solution providers that have an entire gamut of full value chain service offerings, including design, sourcing, integration, and lifecycle management of the asset.

Manufacturing Convergence Trend 8: Collaborative Manufacturing

In the global market, U.S. manufacturers have a reputation for being innovative, but rarely have their products been viewed as cost-effective. Due to past successes, U.S. manufacturers have developed a reliance on the long, single-model production runs supported by inflexible manufacturing processes and facilities. However, in recent times, they are under considerable pressure to provide high-quality, affordable products of many variations across market segments. To stay relevant in the 21st century, they need flexible, agile, and scalable systems. They have to cultivate a “collaborative manufacturing” environment where production lines, processes, and facilities come together harmoniously to quickly and cost-effectively create new product designs. Some of the main critical future state requirements for collaborative manufacturing discussed here are:

1. Digital operations

2. Smart manufacturing

Holy Grails of Collaborative Manufacturing:

Digital Operations:

The increasing demand for energy and looming human resource challenges have given a thrust to the evolution of digital operations in the energy sector. The ability to digitally integrate diverse business elements such as process measurements, business knowledge, rules, and workflows onto an integrated scalable platform is a huge boon to critical process industries such as oil and gas, power, and mining. Digital operations not only improve enterprise visibility, but also enhance business flexibility, profitability, and workforce productivity.



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Smart Manufacturing:

One of the components in “smart manufacturing” is waste removal from existing business processes. It gives a boost to profitability, sustainability, continuous improvements, and offers incremental business benefits. Some of the key components that are part of smart manufacturing are:

Real-Time Digital Manufacturing: The old methods of manufacturing are giving way to svelte digital solutions. Mass customization of products in real time, greater nimbleness in production processes and adaptability to diverse market requirements have marked the current period as an era of real-time digital manufacturing.

On-Demand Collaboration: The manufacturing ecosystem is undergoing a massive transformation as communication and networking change the dynamics of collaboration and integration. End users have progressively moved away from a siloed “in-plant” perspective to a larger “enterprise” perspective of business requirements. These enterprise-class solutions allow large and small organizations to tightly integrate different aspects of their manufacturing ecosystems, enabling a deep collaborative network.

Intelligent Manufacturing: Collaboration and visibility have also made the transition from internal systems to the total manufacturing ecosystem. End users are looking to orchestrate and synchronize critical operations through a unified platform offering. An integrated view of businesses supports greater efficiency and profitability.

APPENDIX

Coding Convention:

The Appendix section is a deep dive into the critical future state requirements and the basis for selecting companies identified as game-changers against these requirements. A specialized coding will be employed to drive more clarity at any stage of this appendix. The coding convention is shown below.

Appendix Chart 2.2: The Eight Manufacturing Convergence Trends


SERVICEDELIVERY INNOVATION


KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

MANUFACTURINGOPERATIONSRISK MANAGEMENT

E-CONVERGENCE

EXPERT SYSTEMS

CONTROL ON THE GO

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8



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The chart shows the coding convention for the manufacturing convergence trends. So, at any stage of the analysis, the code starting with 1 would mean that it is a manufacturing convergence trend. A case in point is that 1 is Manufacturing Operations Risk Management, while anything starting with a 6 will mean Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing. Further, when speaking about the critical future state requirements, the branch-outs would be using the same primary convention as 1.1, 1.2 and so on, as shown below in Chart 2.3.

Appendix Chart 2.3: Mapping of Manufacturing Convergence Trends with Critical Future State Requirements




In-Memory Analytics

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE





8.3

E-CONVERGENCE

EXPERT SYSTEMS

CONTROL ON THE GOKNOWLEDGE

MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS


SERVICEDELIVERY

INNOVATION

FRUGAL ENGINEERING

DIGITALOPERATIONS


PLATFORM

SMARTANALYTICS

5

6

1

2.12

3

4


RISK MANAGEMENT

2.2

2.3

2.4

8.2

8.1

78

8.4


Chart 2.4 below outlines the game-changer companies, along with the critical future state requirements. A case in point, if the critical future state requirement is 2.2, which is Enterprise Applications Virtualization, the game-changer is VMWare, Inc., which is coded as 2.2.1.

Appendix Chart 2.4: Mapping of Manufacturing Convergence Trends with Critical Future State Requirements and Game-Changers


PLATFORM

SMARTANALYTICS




Total Integrated QMSDID Platform for O&G






In-Memory Analytics



GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCE

E-CONVERGENCE

1

2


RISK MANAGEMENT

Waterfall SecuritySolutions, Ltd.

Industrial Defender, Inc.

IBM Corporation

Hewlett-PackardDevelopment Company, L.P.

VMWare, Inc.

TeradataCorporation

SAP HANA,a SAP AG Company

Sparta Systems, Inc.

2.3.1

2.2.1

2.2

2.3

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.1.1

Oracle Corporation1.2.1

Logic Manager, Inc.1.3.1

Invensys OperationsManagement1.4.1




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In the following section, we will explain each of the critical future state requirements and follow it up with the justification on why a particular company is a game-changer.

CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS FOR MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS RISK MANAGEMENT

Outlined below are the critical future state requirements for manufacturing operations risk management. These critical future state requirements are a subset of the Holy Grails, as explained in the earlier sections of the white paper.

1.1 - Total Integrated Quality Management System:

In the age of globalization, market competition, regulations and customer demands are some of the key driving forces to improve product quality. The supply chain is becoming more complex and products are facing stricter scrutiny due to regulatory needs. Initially, internal systems and stand-alone applications were often used to support these processes and minimize liability. However, these disconnected systems that helped individual departments were unable to provide an enterprise-wide visibility into quality management and processes, and restrict rising costs of poor product quality. These individual systems also resulted in increased liability and lack of visibility of quality metrics across an enterprise. Hence, the situation demanded the need for total and integrated quality management systems across an enterprise. The single-platform system cuts across all quality processes and various sub-functional units within the enterprise to provide a unified view of product quality status, corrective actions, etc. The total integrated system enabled end users to drive value right from data collection to analysis, reporting and information-retrieval services. The inside-out nature of the platform allowed customers to maintain quality standards beyond the four walls of the organization. Hence, investing in a total integrated quality management system enables business owners to drive enterprise-class quality and orchestrate audit management capabilities.

1.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Sparta Systems, Inc.

1.2 - Integrated Supply Chain Risk Management:

Global outsourcing to reduce cost of production has resulted in a pressing need to optimize supplier networks and streamline operations across the supply chain. Today, supply chains are intricate and complex with numerous factors impacting efficiency. Recent catastrophes such as the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, and Europe’s ash cloud have left customers thinking hard about solutions that can help them evaluate potential crisis scenarios and simulate war-room strategies to minimize the overall impact on the supply chain. The market is currently awash with piece-part solution providers. As software vendors continue to evolve their solutions targeting supply chain collaboration as a core offering, there is still an immediate requirement for an integrated solution offering to mitigate risks across the supply chain ecosystem. Hence, integrated supply chain risk management is critical in today’s set up, where business objectives of top-level executives are to ensure incremental profitability and growth,


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regardless of supply chain complexities. An integrated risk management platform is imperative to analyze risks at various stages in the supply chain and take the necessary course correction to ensure that business plans are followed with minimal change.

1.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Oracle Corporation

1.3 - Predictive and Preventive Risk Intelligence:

Global outsourcing has resulted in enterprises looking for solutions that can predict and prevent risk at various stages across the manufacturing operations landscape. In contrast to the traditional approaches of dealing with issues and bottlenecks after first occurrence, technology advancements have created an immediate requirement for preventive and predictive risk-based engines to map the processes across the value chain and analyze potential areas of concern prior to the actual occurrence. Furthermore, the launching of the necessary counter measures to tackle potential risks allows the enterprise to streamline operations in a productive manner.

1.3.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Logic Manager

1.4 - Flexible Business Processes for Manufacturing Risk Management:

The manufacturing industry faces a number of challenges at present and includes implications revolving around cost pressures and competition. It has become extremely important for manufacturers to manage operating costs effectively to gain an edge over the competition. Thus, the different domains of a manufacturing facility should be united into a single, simple infrastructure to ensure an easy-to-use system, while driving operational agility and nimbleness. The complex nature of business universe with too many systems being connected to the enterprise network creates a compelling business case of having a seamless and open business architecture. Hence, a workflow-based business process management (BPM) combines automation services and information functionality for real-time business optimization of people, processes and systems. This is clearly the mandate of the future as pre-defined, easy-to-integrate workflows create super-efficient business process execution. As such, BPM applications find a sweet spot in critical process industries such as oil and gas, power utilities, and discrete industries such as automotive and CPG.

1.4.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Invensys Operations Management

1.5 - Defense-in-Depth Platform for Critical Industries:

The global value chains of critical industries are growing rapidly in terms of digital intensity as well as information and connectivity. Information and business networks are the most vulnerable to attacks in an integrated system and require robust security solutions since continuous addition of domains creates integration complexities and opens portals for threat vectors. Targeted attacks on critical infrastructure utilities, such as oil and gas, could be devastating to a nation’s security. Preserving the integrity of the network is of utmost importance for the operators in such industries. Hence, a defense-in-depth approach, which looks from perimeter security



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to secure automation and business networks, while allowing safe and mutually exclusive information exchange, is crucial to tomorrow’s businesses.

1.5.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Waterfall Security Solutions

1.6 - Platform for Automation Systems Security:

The automation space is growing in complexity as systems continue to become more integrated and connected. Apart from the risk of advanced threats, operators face several issues such as obsolete automation systems, heterogeneity in asset characterizations, proliferation of intelligent devices, and the increasing number of regulations. In the current state of affairs, the market clearly requires advanced technologies to automate the management of heterogeneous control systems while enhancing security. As operators of critical infrastructure often face budgetary constraints when dealing with security, compliance and easy-to-use change management capabilities are the need of the hour.

1.6.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Industrial Defender

1.7 - Predictive Threat Intelligence and Management:

Visibility is a key parameter in the cyber space, especially when threats become smarter and more advanced. There is a need for tighter integration between network data operations and security as enterprises are seeing a huge upswing of data being gathered. The onset of big data collected from a wide cross-section of connected devices creates a unique challenge of mining them for security vulnerabilities. The security threats are becoming more unique and hidden under layers of information. Hence, the need of the hour is a mixed-solutions strategy for driving security-centric analysis of the big data to fish out any potential vulnerability. The ability to deploy a flexible and cost-effective virtual appliance for big data collation, network analysis, visibility and security intelligence is critical to effectively secure virtual and physical infrastructure.

1.7.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Q1 Radar, Part of IBM Corporation

CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS FOR E-CONVERGENCE:

2.1 - Cloud Services for Manufacturing:

Customers are demanding faster outputs at reduced inputs. This state requires cutting-edge and smart solutions to achieve the desired end-state. Post-recession, end users have become more cautious about upfront capital expenditures and ongoing operational expenditures. This drives the need for flexible implementation and operational models. End users also require data to be available globally, on the go, and to relevant people at relevant points in time. However, companies want to focus on the data rather than on the supporting hardware. Centralizing the data in the cloud and having applications access the data from the cloud can


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make this possible. The future will see implementations of public, private and hybrid clouds that are secure by nature and will have mainstream manufacturing applications being hosted.

2.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.

2.2 - Enterprise Application Virtualization:

The manufacturing industry is witnessing a tremendous influx of applications that include production line optimization, asset utilization, workflow and resource management, performance metric analysis and intelligent supply chain collaboration. Some of the prevalent challenges faced by such a rapid inflow of applications on the shop floor and the extended supply chain are the ability to standardize all these applications into a single format, quicker deployment time, and reduction of conflict between multiple applications. In contrast to traditional software and application deployment models, application virtualization provides the enterprise an efficient and economical solution to tackle the above-listed challenges while ensuring higher reliability, reduced capital investments and minimal application testing time. Additionally, by creating a virtual layer, IT operating costs are reduced as enterprises can divide their resources dynamically while still ensuring that the settings of their host operating systems remain constant throughout the enterprise.

2.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: VMware, Inc.

2.3 - Integrated Analytics Platform:

The desire to have an advanced pattern recognition solution that spans the manufacturing value chain, with specialized technology to look at real-time streaming data and perform verifications on the data, is compelling sustainable value generation.

2.3.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Teradata Corporation

2.4 - In-Memory Analytics:

The traditional type of data mining is time-intensive due to the sheer size of the data to be mined, and the intelligence comes too late to be of optimum use. To enable real-time information, it is critical for process-intensive organizations such as manufacturing to look beyond the traditional and slow disk-based storage systems to advanced data mining strategies. One of the primary emerging technologies that delivers such advanced strategies well above customer demands is the in-memory technology. This technology takes full advantage of the dropping flash-based memory costs and parallel processing capability without hampering the system performance. The ability of the data and the data cubes to co-exist on the same platform clearly creates the next level of big data innovation.

2.4.1 - Game-Changer Identified: SAP HANA a SAP AG Company



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Appendix Chart 2.4: Critical Future State Requirements and Game-Changers of Expert Systems and Control on the Go:

INTUITIVESYSTEMS


MANAGEMENT

END-TO-ENDMOBILITY


Total Business Intelligence and Analytics




GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCEEXPERT SYSTEMS

CONTROL ON THE GO

SAP AG

IBM Maximo, Part ofIBM Corporation

IBM Cognos, Part ofIBM Corporation

Expert Systems

4.1.1

3.4.1

3.3.1

QlikTech Internation AB 3.1.1

3.2.1

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

4.1

3

4


CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS:

Big data is one common trend that is impacting the convergence trend of expert systems. The large amount of data expected to be generated and flow through the manufacturing value chain requires next-generation systems that can mine not only data, but also enable new business discovery and semantic-based searches to enable right content to the right people at the right time. Shown above in Chart 2.4 is the mapping of game-changers against the manufacturing convergence trends of Expert Systems and Control on the Go. Shown below are the respective critical future state requirements and the game-changers.

3.1 - Enterprise Business Discovery Platform

There is a very fine line between traditional business intelligence and business discovery platforms. The latter are likely to be the future state as end users want to collate all types of information onto one common database. This will help them search more effectively, efficiently and on-demand across the enterprise. This is the juncture where business intelligence is taken to the next level.

3.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: QlikTech International AB

3.2 - Unified and Total Business Intelligence

Data availability is at an unprecedented high, mainly due to collection of devices such as sensors, geospatial locators and control systems. This data, driven by an “Internet of things” environment, is a repository of real-time intelligence and long-term strategy formulation insights for organizations. Customers are looking for a breadth of software and hardware that includes the database with the structured data and an analytics platform on the front end.


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3.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: IBM Cognos

3.3 - Semantic-Based Intelligence

The explosion of data makes it imperative to structure unstructured data to derive meaningful insights efficiently. This can be achieved through semantic-based optimizations, which reduce the queried dataset size. While there are constant innovations in this space, none of the commercially available solutions match the semantic graph-induced intelligence approach in terms of accuracy. Thus, semantic-derived intelligence is becoming one of the most sought-after solutions for intelligent insight collation.

3.3.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Expert Systems

3.4 - Smart, Predictive and Preventive Asset Management

The management of assets across departments, locations, facilities and, in some cases, across the enterprise, has become the prime focus area for the manufacturing industry. By managing assets, the goals are to improve utilization and performance, reduce capital costs, lower asset-related operating costs, extend asset life, and subsequently, improve return on assets. Additionally, the need to manage diverse assets in service areas such as design, construction, commissioning, operations, maintenance and decommissioning/replacement of plant, equipment and facilities has augmented the requirement for optimal predictive and preventive asset management across the supply chain.

3.4.1 - IBM Maximo

CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF CONTROL ON THE GO:

4.1 - Total Integrated Mobility for Manufacturing:

The Internet’s ubiquity, while aiding anytime, anywhere connectivity, also creates an inclusive environment that brings untethered workers under the ambit of workforce automation. Mobility solutions, while already a big hit, are moving toward a future state of an integrated, software-based platform with open connectivity to any type and kind of device that is intrinsically secure. Once the platform senses a new device, it provides rule-based authentication and then allows seamless one- or two-way exchange of data. The platform is intrinsically smart and will not require additional training.

4.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: SAP AG



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Appendix Chart 2.5: Critical Future State Requirements and Game-Changers of Knowledge Management Systems and Frugal Engineering and Manufacturing:

Operator-Driven Collaboration and Optimization

Smart Operator Training Simulation


SOURCINGLIFECYCLE

MANAGEMENT



COLLABORATION

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCETotal Plant EcosystemEnergy Optimization

Smart SupplierSourcing


6

5

6.1SAP AG

Schneider ElectricCorporation

6.1.1

6.2.1

DEM Solutions

Honeywell ProcessSolutions

5.1.1

5.2.1

Invensys EYESIM5.3.1


SYSTEMS

6.2

5.1

5.2

5.3


CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

5.1 - Engineering Simulation:

Engineering simulation supports green manufacturing by enabling the analysis of conceptualized products or system designs before they are built. This aids rapid iteration and identification that are both cost-effective and sustainable. Designs from industries such as aerospace, automotive, chemical, and oil and gas rely on engineering simulation technology for shrinking product development time as well as improving operation efficiency. Initially, the major focus of simulation was to obtain more information to derive better specifications for solutions and value chains. However, with sustainability becoming a buzzword across all spheres of life, design, and engineering, simulation tools are becoming a “must-have.” There is a growing tendency to simulate the entire product or process in the virtual world to ensure sustainability throughout the value chain.

5.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: DEM Solutions

5.2 - Operator-Driven Collaboration and Optimization:

People, process and technology–these are the key drivers to manufacturing excellence. This is fostering a more collaborative environment to optimize process changes and commission facilities more efficiently to support the human workforce with insights and ensure minimum downtime.


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5.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Honeywell Process Solutions

5.3 – Smart Operator Training Simulation:

The decline in the skilled workforce in the U.S. is expected to become a significant challenge for process industries. This opens the need for smart training solutions, which helps in bridging the gap between non-availability of skill and process requirements through high-fidelity simulator solutions. Technology advancements such as “track and motion” using LEAP and cloud could potentially enable cloud-based training solutions anywhere and at anytime.

5.3.1: Game-Changer Identified: Invensys EYESIM

CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF FRUGAL ENGINEERING AND MANUFACTURING:

6.1 - Smart Supplier Sourcing:

Raw materials constitute the majority of the manufacturing costs; therefore, it is important to adopt a strategic approach to sourcing. Manufacturers are resorting to smart supplier sourcing, which provides them with end-to-end control over the cost of procurement, supplier quality, sale, quantity, and risk management across the enterprise and geographic landscape.

6.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: SAP AG

6.2 - Total Plant Ecosystem Energy Optimization:

Manufacturing and process industries face the twin challenges of managing energy optimally and maximizing productivity. One way to achieve both is the implementation of total plant automation and energy management solutions. Once the plant is automated, the relevant systems will measure energy usage, analyze process data, monitor asset utilization and calculate machine performance.

6.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Schneider Electric Corporation



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Appendix Chart 2.6: Critical Future State Requirements and Game-Changers of Service Delivery Innovation and Collaborative Manufacturing:

SMART MANUFACTURING


REMOTEMONITORING


SERVICE ECOSYSTEM

DIGITALOPERATIONS

GLOBALIZATION

SMART TECHNOLOGY

GRAYING WORKFORCEEnd-to-End Product Engineering

and Lifecycle Services










SERVICEDELIVERY

INNOVATION

8

7

GE Bently, Part ofGE Corporation7.1.1

Cognizant TechnologySolutions7.2.1

7.1

7.2

Emerson Process Management8.1.1

ABB Ventyx8.1.2

WindRiver Corporation,Part of Intel Corporation8.2.1

Siemens PLM8.3.1

JDA Corporation8.4.1

Apriso Corporation8.5.1

Cisco Systems8.6.1

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6


CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF SERVICE DELIVERY INNOVATION:

7.1 - Remote Asset Management:

In critical industries such as oil and gas and power generation, it is important to diligently monitor deviations in operations, both on-site and off-site. The future state will be that any aberrations will be immediately picked up by a remote asset management system, aiding in predictive asset diagnostics. A condition monitoring system’s analysis will help manufacturers make a call on whether the machinery and equipment need to be replaced. This lowers the costs incurred versus a complete cessation of operation. Remote asset management assists in performing diagnostics and assessing machinery health, optimizing maintenance schedules, and lowering costs.

7.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: GE-Bently Nevada

7.2 - End-to-End Product Engineering and Lifecycle Service:

The modern consumer is often overwhelmed by the glut of identical products. With technology becoming obsolete at breakneck speed, the onus is on the manufacturers to stay ahead of competition and deliver innovative products in shorter time spans. Hence, end users are increasingly relying on solution providers to deliver technology roadmaps and product updates through collaboration. Solution providers tend to partner with service providers that have the capability to deliver outsourced product engineering and lifecycle service capabilities. These are called product engineering service companies, and they have global delivery innovation centers and local resource capabilities across strategic geographies.

7.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Cognizant Technology Solutions


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CRITICAL FUTURE STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GAME-CHANGERS OF COLLABORATIVE MANUFACTURING:

8.1 - Smart Integrated Operations for Critical Process Industries

The critical process industries are under increasing pressure to improve processes and optimize equipment usage to increase the productivity and efficiency of the systems. The current shift toward digital oil and gas fields and mines, as well as smart operations in discrete industries such as aerospace and defense, have placed the spotlight on integration and communication. These two factors are imperative for centralized operations and to maintain visibility and understanding of the operations. Integration at the highest level requires data from several asset bases and systems that are tied to the centralized unit. Of the various industries analyzed, the ones with the highest maturity and potential are oil and gas, power, and mining.

8.1.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Emerson Process Management

8.1.2 - Game-Changer Identified: ABB Ventyx

8.2 - Intelligent Embedded Platform Management:

With the exponential growth in the number of handheld mobile devices, industrial devices, and other consumer devices, embedded systems are the next frontier for integrated solutions. As these devices are perpetually interconnected, it has become essential to gain expertise in the area of platform management for embedded systems. Manufacturers and software solution providers are focusing on tapping this lucrative market, which is bred on the evolving needs of both consumers and industrial customers.

8.2.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Intel Windriver

8.3 - Virtual Systems and Process Integration

As the manufacturing industry is witnessing a drastic reduction in product lifecycles and escalation in demand for customized products, there is an intensifying need for a software platform to integrate the various stages in the product development processes. In the current setup, it is critical to integrate design and simulation tools (to analyze process flow prior to production) with existing business systems (to manage physical production). Additionally, the advent of digital factories, where all activities from planning to manufacture are performed in a single location, has rendered it necessary to merge physical production tools with virtual tools to streamline operations and increase productivity.

8.3.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Siemens PLM



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8.4 - End-to-End Supply Chain Optimization

As supply chains become flatter, manufacturers are increasingly compelled to focus on the intricacies within the supply chain. The availability of several channels, higher volatility in customer demands as well as the unprecedented pace of product introduction is placing a strain on the existing supply chain networks. Leading manufacturers are focused on understanding their end customers better and investing in advanced optimization tools for better visibility and management of the supply chain.

8.4.1 - Game-Changer Identified: JDA Corporation

8.5 - Total Integrated MES

Over the past decade, there has been a paradigm shift in the application of manufacturing execution systems that are used along with production assembly lines to optimize process efficiency. With manufacturing processes becoming more intricate, and supply chains more complex, end users in this space have started looking at solution offerings that ensure materials, people and processes are tracked across the extended supply chain. This has led to the development of a new generation of requirements-based manufacturing solutions that ensure maximum visibility for the enterprise.

8.5.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Apriso Corporation

8.6 - Smart Business Collaboration

As operations become increasingly global, resources critical to key strategic decision-making processes have become spatially distributed. Therefore, end users are adopting collaboration solutions to make collaborative business decisions. The backbone of the future enterprise is the network, which enables smart, end-to-end data transfer, collaboration and last-mile connectivity.

8.6.1 - Game-Changer Identified: Cisco Corporation Closely Meets the Critical Future State Requirement for Smart Business Collaboration

Cisco is the market leader in the industrial as well as consumer networking equipment and solutions domains. The company’s strength lies in its vast experience in the networking equipment space where, until a few years ago, it was virtually unchallenged. By leveraging its well-established networking equipment vertical and combining it with software solutions, it offers a better-integrated and more holistic product than its competitors. The company has enabled the United States’ manufacturing sector to become increasingly competitive, reducing the costs associated with extensive travelling and making team collaborations a reality. Indeed, the company is a game-changer in the smart business collaboration space.

Cisco’s current ‘Sweet Spot’

Collaboration solutions have evolved from traditional to converged, and now, to intelligent communication systems and protocols. Cisco has always been at the forefront of this evolution.


Frost & Sullivan

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It offers a broad portfolio of products and services using the cloud as an intermediary layer on which the company built customer collaboration solutions, telepresence technologies, collaboration applications, and a unified communication platform. Its range of services, backed by extensive experience in the networking field, has provided a one-stop shop for all customer collaboration needs, flattening the organizational hierarchy and allowing a user to connect with his team, irrespective of location and device.

EMERGING INNOVATORS

Emerging Innovators:

Challenging these ongoing disruptive best practices is a new breed of emerging innovators who hold promise and are companies to watch. These companies are featured as emerging innovators in our Game-Changers initiative. These emerging innovators could prove yet again that today’s nimble disruptors could be tomorrow’s Top 50 Game-Changers.

• Whitestein Technologies

• Rockwell Automation

• COPA-DATA GmbH

• Werum Software and Systems AG

• Omnitrol Networks, Inc.

• ThingWorx

• Pedigree Technologies

CONCLUSION

The continuing story of the United States’ manufacturing resurgence is highlighted by several examples, such as the construction of the Methanex plant in Louisiana instead of Chile, Apple’s reshoring of Mac production from China, and the favorable cost of energy that has driven the country to become a net energy exporter. While the United States did witness trade deficits in technology-centric industries, the trend is expected to see a reversal in various sectors such as hi-tech, steel, chemicals and plastics, indicating the beginning of a “new normal.” The gaps in staffing and resourcing may widen, indirectly affecting the government’s stand on immigration policies, driving open innovation, and leading to stronger integration with the economy.

Frost & Sullivan, based on 600 global interviews, outlined the convergence framework, trends in manufacturing convergence, subsequent critical future state requirements, and the Holy Grails that will drive faster, better, and more agile manufacturing and production markets.



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As CEOs grapple with the complexity of growth, their teams are challenged with managing a Complex Business Universe, which constitutes our CEO 360 Degree Visionary Perspective model. This is a composite view of seven market perspectives that are continually influencing and affecting the growth prospects of an organization. The perspectives include Mega Trends, Industry Convergence, Technology, Economic, Competitive, Customer, and Best Practices. We have always believed manufacturing should be a part of the CEO’s growth agenda and now, with its inclusion, we look forward to our global clients benefiting from manufacturing process benchmarking. Our recent acquisition of Manufacturing Leadership has allowed us an opportunity to catalyze industry adoption of these evaluated and thoroughly whetted best practices. Rather than providing a ringside spectators’ view of industry developments, Frost & Sullivan’s vision is to help contribute catalytically to the visionary innovation process.

As part of its efforts to spark the adoption of these best practices, the Top 50 Game-Changers in Manufacturing & Production 2013 will be released at the 2013 Manufacturing Leadership Summit. The journey toward visionary innovation continues at the Growth, Innovation and Leadership Congress 2013: Silicon Valley (GIL: SV) during the Think Tank sessions on Transformative Technologies in Manufacturing.


877.GoFrost • [email protected]://www.frost.com

ABOUT FROST & SULLIVAN

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, works in collaboration with clients to leverage visionary innovation that addresses the global challenges and related growth opportunities that will make or break today’s market participants. For more than 50 years, we have been developing growth strategies for the Global 1000, emerging businesses, the public sector and the investment community. Is your organization prepared for the next profound wave of industry convergence, disruptive technologies, increasing competitive intensity, Mega Trends, breakthrough best practices, changing customer dynamics and emerging economies? Contact Us: Start the Discussion

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