Dalian Laodong Park

Presentation by Wendell Cox to the Marco Polo Society Shanghai – 17 November 2014

Cities in China: A World Context

OUTLINE Background on Cities

Cities in China

Transport in China

Concluding Thoughts

Los Angeles

Major Cities Toured in China 1999-2014

Shanghai Quanzhou Fuzhou Shijiazhuang ShantouBeijing Nanjing Jinan Urumqi Chaoyang-Chaonan

Guangzhou-Foshan Shenyang Ningbo Wenzhou TangshanShenzhen Xi'an Taiyuan Zhangjiaggang-Jiangyin Shaoxing

Tianjin Qingdao Changsha Zhongshan Huai'anChengdu Suzhou Hefei Guiyang Hohhot

Dongguan Zhengzhou Kunming Lanzhou BaotouWuhan Harbin Wuxi Nanchang Handan

Hangzhou Xiamen Changzhou Nanning HaikouChongqing Dalian Changchun Linyi Luoyang

Purpose of Cities: Economic Opportunity

Background on Cities

Urban Area: Continuous Development NOT BASED ON JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES

EXAMPLE: HARBIN Municipality: 10.6M

Urban qu: 5.9M Urban area: 4.3M

7 7 Dhaka, Bangladesh

A World History of Poverty PROSPERITY IS NEW AND FRAGILE

$0 $5,000

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

GDP Per Capita (Highest Nation) 1500 TO 2000 (2000$)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 65

0BC

400B

C 20

0BC

100A

D 50

0 90

0 10

00

1100

12

00

1300

14

00

1500

16

00

1700

18

00

1850

19

00

1950

20

00

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

ns)

World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT

Huge Swings: 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example

BELOW Hangzhou , China (Largest Pre-19th

Century Urban Area: 1300)?

Hangzhou

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

China: % Urban Residents 1950-2050

PER UNITED NATIONS 2015-2030 155M Increase 2030-2050: 20M Increase

Mobility & Economic Growth EMPLOYMENT ACCESS IN THE LABOR MARKET

Mobility improves economy & job creation

Prud’homme & Lee U. Of Paris & others

Tianjin

Economic growth enhanced by

quick travel through metropolitan area

(labor market)

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000

Mozambique

Sudan

China

Bhutan

India

Pakistan

Indonesia

Philippines

GDP (PPP) per Capita: 2013$

2013

1980

GDP Growth: China & Examples NATIONS WITH LOW INCOMES IN 1980

CHINA 1980 Ranked 133 of 135 Growth 1980-2013

3x 2nd & 3rd Burundi

South Korea

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

China Rest of the Developing World

Chan

ge: P

over

ty P

opul

atio

n: M

illio

ns

Calculated from World Bank data

Poverty Reduction: China & the World REDUCTION IN EXTREME POVERTY POPULATION:1981-2008

Guiyang

Cities in China

CHONGQING MUNICIPALITY 30 Million, 82,000 KM2

(Size of Austria) CHONGQING URBAN AREA

7 Million, 360 KM2

Chongqing NOT THE LARGEST CITY IN THE WORLD

0 10 20 30 40

Lagos Shenzhen

Istanbul Tehran

Buenos Aires Dhaka

Kolkata Bangkok

Cairo Los Angeles

Moscow Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto

Mumbai Guangzhou-Foshan

Beijing Sao Paulo

Mexico City New York

Karachi Shanghai

Manila Seoul Delhi

Jakarta Tokyo

Population (x1,000,000)

25 Largest Urban Areas in the World 2014

Source: Demographia World

Urban Areas

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Atlanta Portland

New York Toronto

Los Angeles Paris

Tokyo Beijing

Guangzhou-Foshan Shanghai

Shenzhen Seoul

Manila Kinshasa

Hong Kong Mumbai

Dhaka

Population per Square Kilometer

Urban Area Density Examples POPULATION PER URBAN SQUARE KILOMETER: 2014

HK Kowloon Walled City Up to 2,000,000 Slums in Dhaka Up to 1,000,000

Cities Grow & Become Less Dense EXAMPLE OF ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA

URBAN DENSITY 1973: 30,000 2010: 8,000

(per KM2)

97% 94% 93%

114%

92%

Suburban World NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IN SUBURBS: 35+YEARS

Aust

ralia

Cana

da

Unite

d St

ates

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Japa

n

Moscow Suburbs

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Inner Core Outer Core Balance

2000 2010

Shanghai Population: 2000-2010 BY SECTOR

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Huangpu Qu

Jing'an Qu

Outer Core

Beyond

Shanghai Density by Area: 2010 POPULATION PER SQUARE KILOMETER

0 5 10 15

United States

Ireland

Japan

Canada

United Kingdom

Singapore

Australia

New Zealand

China: 40 Other Cities

China: Hong Kong

The Economist (2014) Demographia (2013)

Housing Affordability: 2013/2014 PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE)

0 5 10 15 20

Atlanta Chicago

Dublin Tokyo

Hohhot Changsha

Chongqing London

Chengdu Auckland

Nanjing Melbourne

Sydney San Francisco

Vancouver Shanghai

Hong Kong Beijing

Shenzhen

The Economist: 2014 Demographia: 2013

Housing Affordability: 2013/14 Examples PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE)

Price to Income Ratios Major Metropolitan Areas

Sources: The Economist Demographia

Unusual: Dense Central Business Districts MOST CITIES HAVE DISPERSED COMMERCIAL CORES

Lujiazui Chongqing

New York Metropolitan Area Employment BY SECTOR OF METROPOLITAN AREA: 2000

Outer Ring 58%

Inner Ring Balance

27%

Central Business District (Puxi &

Lujiazui) 15%

Shanghai Job Locations: 2004 BASED ON TRAVEL SURVEY

SHANGHAI CBD Similar in total employment

To London, Osaka, Seoul

Smaller than Tokyo, New York

Shenyang TWO ADJACENT CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTS

Tianjin ULTIMATE IN POLYCENTRICITY?

Tianjin: 90+ story buildings

in three areas

Beijing DISPERSED & POLYCENTRIC

Other Examples: Qingdao, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Taiyuan

Chengdu, Kunming, Changsha

Dongguan: Ultimate Dispersion? DELHI OR PHOENIX OF CHINA?

Pearl River Delta ADJACENT URBAN AREAS

Guangzhou

Population: 53.9 Million Urban Area KM2: 3,245 Tokyo: 37.8 Million Urban Area KM2 : 3,300

Pearl River Delta Urban Areas

Guangzhou-Foshan Dongguan

Shenzhen

Hong Kong

Zhongshan Jiangmen

Zhuhai

Macau

Tokyo Rail Transit System TOKYO: HIGHER RIDERSHIP THAN CANADA & US COMBINED

Quanzhou (Fujian) IN SITU URBANIZATION

Transport in China

World’s largest high speed rail network

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

China United States EU-15

Rout

e Ki

lom

eter

s Motorway/Interstate Standard Expressways

LENGTH: CHINA, EUROPE & UNITED STATES (2014)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Railway Car & Bus Airline

Billi

ons o

f Pas

seng

er K

ilom

eter

s

United States China European Union Japan

4 Largest Economies: Passenger Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Railway Highway (Truck) Waterway Pipeline

Billi

ons o

f Ton

ne K

ilom

eter

s

United States China European Union Japan

4 Largest Economies: Freight Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR

China: Metro World Leader STRONG RATE OF BUILDING CONTINUES

Beijing Subway

RIDERSHIP 1-Beijing 3-Shanghai 6-Guangzhou 9-Hong Kong

ROUTE LENGTH 1-Shanghai 2-Beijing 8-Guangzhou

Suzhou

China: E-Bike World Leader ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY, INEXPENSIVE

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Sydney Cape Town

Ningbo Marseille

Paris Los Angeles

Rome Changsha

Changchun Shenzhen Shanghai

Fuzhou Nanjing

Shijiazhuang Warsaw Brussels

Beijing Chongqing Sao Paulo Hangzhou

Mexico City Tianjin

Rio de Janeiro Istanbul Moscow

Time Added to Travel in Peak Hours

China Other

Traffic Congestion: 25 Worst Cities TOM TOM CONGESTION INDEX

Includes China, Americas, Europe, South Africa, Australia & New Zealand (Not all urban

areas) Source: Tom Tom

Lanzhou

From Old to New China ACCOMPLISHMENTS & CHALLENGES

Concluding Thoughts

Evaluating the Success of Cities: Facilitation of Opportunity