city of chilliwack economic and employment prospects · 2013-11-04 · city of chilliwack economic...

September 13, 2013

FINAL REPORT

CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS

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Report Number: 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 Distribution:

1 Copy - City of Chilliwack (Electronic)

2 Copies - Golder Associates Ltd.

Submitted to:City of Chilliwack 8550 Young Road Chilliwack, BC V8P 8A4


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 i

Executive Summary

As part of its Official Community Planning process, the City is conducting a series of background studies. One

of the studies is an Economic Development Prospects and Employment Study, which is considered key to better

understanding future growth and development requirements. This study was funded by the City of Chilliwack in

partnership with the Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation (CEPCO) and was completed by the Sustainable

Communities Group of Golder Associates in association with Lions Gate Consulting. We obtained input from the

local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:

Key informant interviews with 12 community members;

A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants help on November 15, 2012;

A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19, 2012; and

A community business survey, completed by 240 firms.

Analysis of Key Socio-Economic and Industry Information

Population – Over the 15 year period from 1996 to 2011, the population in the City of Chilliwack increased 26%

from 62,466 to 78,8981. This was significantly higher than Provincial population growth over the same period

(18%) and similar to the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD), which grew 27%.

Employment – In 2006, the largest labour force categories included retail, manufacturing, construction and

health services. From 1991 to 2006, Chilliwack experienced a steep decline in public administration employment,

as well as losses in primary industries, including agriculture, fishery, forestry and mining. Other services,

manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate, health services, and educational services have all shown

strong growth, outpacing growth experienced in Metro Vancouver and the province. The Chilliwack labour force

as a percentage of the total population declined from 47% to 44% from 2001 to 2006. By comparison, the BC

labour force increased from 46% to 52% over the same period.

In 2011 the unemployment rate in Chilliwack was the same as the province at about 5% and well below the

Abbotsford-Mission rate of 9%.

Incomes – The median Chilliwack income in 2009 was $28,120, which was 4% lower than the BC median

income of $29,405. Household incomes in Chilliwack are about $64,000, which is about 12% below the

provincial average of $72,600. Household incomes have increased at the rate of 2.2% per year. Chilliwack

experienced a 77% increase in incomes from 2001 to 2009, slightly higher than income growth in the Fraser

Valley Regional District or the provinces as a whole. The percentage of low income families in Chilliwack is 10%

compared with 13% for BC. The number of people on income assistance in Chilliwack is increasing. It rose by

over 40% from July 2008 to July 2012 (this compares with 35% for the Fraser Valley Region). It rose quickly

during the recession and has since tapered off although there continues to be a net increase each year.

1 BC Statistics figures. The 2011 federal census population was slightly lower at 77,898. The census figures exclude the first nations reserve population of about 4.300. The City of Chilliwack estimates the population of Chilliwack to be 82,463, which includes the first nation’s population.


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 ii

Business Licences – In 2011, the City issued 3,652 licences, 48% of which were for home-based businesses. Another 41% were for commercial businesses and the remaining 11% industrial businesses.

Office Development Costs – In a recent survey of office development costs in the Lower Mainland published by the Metro Vancouver Chapter of the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association (NAIOP) Chilliwack scored sixth overall on the costs of developing a theoretical commercial building valued at $7.8 million. Chilliwack ranked first in terms of the commercial to residential tax ratio and development approval times. The total value of building permit fees declined from about $200,000 to $100,000 between 2006 and 2011, but this did not account for activity related to the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre.

Housing Demand – As the population grows in Chilliwack the mix of housing is gradually shifting from acreages

to single family homes and from single family homes to multifamily homes. Constrained by geography and the

agricultural land reserve, the only avenue is increased density of housing. It is no surprise that the biggest

growth category in the past ten years is townhouses and apartments. While the largest dwelling type is still the

single family home, a growing number of them now have secondary suites. This increased density has also

coincided with rising house prices. Property assessments have tripled over the last ten years. The residential

sector accounts for over 80% of that while the business sector represents 15%.

Economic Development Trends

Globally, the economy seems to be recovering slowly from the recent global financial crisis although the situation

is very fragile in both Europe, where a number of countries are close to bankruptcy, and the United States where

extremely high levels of debt pose very significant challenges to our neighbour and largest trading partner.

Some researchers and analysts are suggesting that high levels of debt at the personal, corporate and

government levels are helping to make the economy appear to be better than it actually is.

Provincially, the BC economy and its neighbours to the east are outpacing eastern Canada, boosted by a surge

in mining and oil and gas activity due to high mineral commodity prices and new technology to exploit natural

gas reserves. The employment losses that occurred in the recession have now been fully recouped and BC

employment levels increased 2.2% in 2011. These figures were boosted by construction employment. In the

near future, transportation and warehouse jobs are predicted to increase as BC, and the lower mainland

becomes a more central hub for trade with Asia.

Employment in accommodation and food services is expected to decline slightly due to a week environment for

tourism and reduced consumer spending. Public sector employment is also expected to decline as the federal

and provincial governments try to cut spending.

More locally, the primary economic activities in the Fraser Valley Regional District include agriculture, forestry

and manufacturing. The Farms provide products to the larger population centres in the region and for exports

outside the region. There are a large number of wood manufacturing firms. The Annual Allowable Cut has

remained constant for many years. Because of lower land prices, the region has attracted industrial and

warehouse operations. The increase in the number of new housing units has helped boost the construction

industry.


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 iii

Local Economy SWOT Analysis

We conducted a local economy Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis to help

identify the community’s economic assets and gaps and how they might, or might not appeal, to the location

decisions being made by business. The SWOT was compiled based on the literature review and interviews with

key informants, with a focus on sustainable strengths, correctable weaknesses and realistic, developable

opportunities. A summary of SWOT elements is presented in Figure 4-1.

Economic Projections

Population – Chilliwack expects an increase of 50,919 new residents over the next 29 years based on

projections made by the City. This represents growth of 62% or an annual growth rate of 1.7%.

By 2041, Chilliwack’s population will have grown at a faster pace than other jurisdictions, including the FVRD,

which is expected to increase by 60%. Metro Vancouver’s projected growth of 41% would result in a gradual and

continuing shift in the Lower Mainland’s population centre eastward, bringing Chilliwack closer to the office,

industrial and trade core of the region. Growth rates in the other jurisdictions are projected to be lower, including

BC (60%), Canada (46%), the US (34%) and the world population at 28%.

Age – The ageing trend that has characterized Chilliwack’s population over the last two decades is expected to

continue for the foreseeable future. By 2036, 22% of the population will be over the age of 65 years compared

with 17% today. Conversely, 17% of the population will be under the age of 14, versus 18% today. However that

ageing trend may stabilize and possibly reverse between 2021 and 2036, in comparison with the province. This

means that, starting in about 10 years, the City will become progressively younger than the BC population.

Land Requirements – Chilliwack has 12 hectares of commercial land available but has projected demand of

113 hectares by 2036. This means that Chilliwack will run out of commercial land within two years if current

levels of land use intensity continue. A similar pattern is occurring with industrial land. There are 76 hectares of

industrial land available in Chilliwack but the projected demand is for 162 hectares, which means that Chilliwack

will run out of Industrial land in 12 years. This means that Chilliwack will need to significantly increase its land

use intensity and to work with First Nations to accommodate some of that density on First Nations land.

Economic Prospects

Economic Vision Statement – The following economic vision statement for the City of Chilliwack was

developed based on vision statements suggest by participants at the Economic Prospects workshop. It

considers the planning direction for CEPCO and addresses development and land use, employment and

business climate, the environment and community. It also draws heavily on the vision statements crafted by

participants at the stakeholder workshop on November 15th. The statement reads as follows:

“Chilliwack is a healthy, safe, prosperous, complete, and diverse community that cares for its citizens

and the environment and has a strong mix of amenities, services, recreation opportunities and natural

assets to attract and retain businesses that create well-paying jobs in manufacturing, tourism,

agriculture, and other sectors through ongoing skills training and applied technology.”


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 iv


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 v

Economic Goals – Based on the baseline economic information we compiled and the feedback we received

from the workshops, focus groups, interviews and business survey, we grouped the key themes into eight high

level goals for Chilliwack. The backdrop for these goals is that the City is about to become one of the fastest

growing municipalities in Canada.

BUSINESS

1) Position and promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s sustainable business community.

a. Create a community-wide brand identity.

b. Promote Chilliwack as a destination for businesses, visitors, and new residents.

2) Enhance and expand Chilliwack’s business and investment climate.

a. Strengthen the local business climate.

b. Support the retention and expansion of businesses in the City.

c. Support the attraction of new businesses and residents to the community.

PLACE

3) Continue to revitalize the downtown core.

a. Encourage redevelopment that will attract anchor tenants and new residents.

b. Make the downtown a centre for civic activity that attracts residents and tourists.

c. Encourage downtown residents to share resources and collaborate.

4) Increase employment intensity on commercial and industrial land.

a. Increase the number of jobs per unit of commercial land and/or increase the density of new

commercial development.

b. Intensify existing commercial lands.

c. Increase the number of jobs per unit of industrial land.

PEOPLE

5) Contribute to a learning economy through workforce development.

a. Assist in developing and delivering training and education programs.

b. Create a learning community.

6) Create economic participation opportunities for disadvantaged residents.

a. Assist in developing and delivering training and entrepreneurship programs.

b. Better integrate youth into the workforce and community life.

SUSTAINABILITY

7) Improve transportation infrastructure for employees and visitors.

a. Improve employee commuting options.

b. Improve transportation infrastructure for visitors.

c. Improve road infrastructure for commercial vehicles.

8) Become a model community in advancing the green economy.

a. Encourage environmentally responsible business activities.

b. Promote green business activities.


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 vi

Table of Contents

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1

2.0 ANALYSIS OF KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INFO ................................................................................... 2

2.1 Demographic Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 2

2.2 Labour Force Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 2

2.3 Personal Income .................................................................................................................................................. 4

2.4 Business Licences ............................................................................................................................................... 7

2.5 Office Development Costs ................................................................................................................................... 8

2.6 Housing Demand ................................................................................................................................................. 9

2.7 Land Use ........................................................................................................................................................... 11

2.8 Employment by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 12

3.0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS......................................................................................................................... 14

3.1 Key Global Driving Forces that may Impact Chilliwack ...................................................................................... 14

4.0 RESULTS OF LOCAL ECONOMY SWOT ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 16

4.1 Strengths ........................................................................................................................................................... 18

4.2 Weaknesses ...................................................................................................................................................... 19

4.3 Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................................... 20

4.4 Threats .............................................................................................................................................................. 21

5.0 STAKEHOLDER INPUT ................................................................................................................................................. 23

5.1 Stakeholder Workshop ...................................................................................................................................... 23

5.1.1 Key Economics Strategies ........................................................................................................................... 24

5.1.2 Economic Vision Statement ......................................................................................................................... 25

5.2 Focus Group Sessions ...................................................................................................................................... 26

5.2.1 Manufacturing Sector ................................................................................................................................... 26

5.2.2 Agriculture Sector ........................................................................................................................................ 27

5.2.3 Tourism Sector ............................................................................................................................................. 28

5.3 Business Community Survey ............................................................................................................................. 29

6.0 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................................................................... 47

6.1 Population .......................................................................................................................................................... 47


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 vii

6.2 Population Age .................................................................................................................................................. 49

6.3 Other Growth Indicators ..................................................................................................................................... 49

6.4 Employment Land Requirements ...................................................................................................................... 50

6.5 Future Challenges ............................................................................................................................................. 51

7.0 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ............................................................................................................................................. 53

7.1 Vision Statement................................................................................................................................................ 53

7.2 Goals ................................................................................................................................................................. 54

7.3 Objectives and Supporting Actions .................................................................................................................... 55

8.0 CLOSURE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 78

TABLES

Table 2-1: Population for Fraser Valley Regional District Communities and British Columbia, 1996 to 2011 ............................ 2

Table 2-2: Experienced Labour Force City of Chilliwack, GVRD and BC, 1991 to 2006 ............................................................ 3

Table 2-3: Total Chilliwack and BC Tax Filers, Total Income and Median Income, 2009 ........................................................... 5

Table 2-4: Chilliwack Ranking in Development Process Metrics, 2012 ...................................................................................... 8

Table 2-6: Current and Projected Employment ........................................................................................................................ 13

Table 6-1: Chilliwack and BC Age Characteristics, 2001 to 2036 ............................................................................................ 49

Table 6-2: Change in Key Chilliwack Indicators, 2011 to 2041 ................................................................................................ 49

Table 6-3: Current and Projected Employment ........................................................................................................................ 50

Table 6-4: Commercial and Industrial Current and Projected Land Requirements .................................................................. 51

Table A-1: Industrial Establishments by Major Industrial Group, 1992 and 2011

Table A-2: Commercial Establishments by Major Industrial Group

Table A-3: Industrial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial Group

Table A-4: Commercial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial

Table A-5: Industrial and Commercial Land by Neighbourhood, 2012

FIGURES

Figure 2-1: Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack, BC Unemployment Rate, 2002 to 2011 ................................................................. 4

Figure 2-2: Change in Total Personal Income for Chilliwack, Fraser Valley RD and BC, 2001 to 2009. .................................... 5

Figure 2-3: Chilliwack and BC Personal Income Ranges, 2009. ................................................................................................ 6

Figure 2-4: Number of Business Establishments by Major Industry, 1992 to 2011. ................................................................... 8


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 viii

Figure 2-5: Value in building permits per year 2005 – 2011. ...................................................................................................... 9

Figure 2-6: Industrial and Commercial Floor Space (m2), 1992 to 2011. .................................................................................. 11

Figure 2-7: Industrial and Commercial Area (ha.) by Sub-Area, 1992 to 2011. ........................................................................ 12

Figure 4-1: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Overview. ............................................................................. 17

Figure 6-1: Forecast growth in population between 2011 to 2041. .......................................................................................... 47

Figure 6-2: Population Forecasts for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2041. .............................................................................. 48

Figure 6-3: Components of forecasted population change for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2036. ........................................ 48

Figure B-1: Agricultural Employment

Figure B-2: Industrial Employment

Figure B-3: Commercial Employment

Figure B-4: Institutional Employment

Figure B-5: Total Employment

Figure D-1: Scenario Planning Model

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables

APPENDIX B Spatial Allocation of Employment by Broad Sector

APPENDIX C Key List of Informants

APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios

APPENDIX E Economic Projection Tables


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 1

1.0 INTRODUCTION As part of its Official Community Planning process, the City is conducting a series of background studies. One

of the studies is an Economic Development Prospects and Employment Study, which is considered key to better

understanding future growth and development requirements. This study was funded by the City of Chilliwack in

partnership with the Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation (CEPCO) and was completed by the Sustainable

Communities Group of Golder Associates in association with Lions Gate Consulting.

The primary objectives of study are to:

Document the current economic base of Chilliwack;

Describe key past and current macro-economic trends;

Present and summarise opinions about the economy by knowledgeable community representatives;

Identify and analyse land use patterns and requirements pertaining to future economic prospects;

Identify short and long-term needs of Chilliwack; and

Present a SWOT analysis of the Chilliwack economy.

We obtained input from the local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:


A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants held on November 15th, 2012;

A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19th, 2012; and


As part of the stakeholder workshop, we conducted an alternative futures scenarios exercise, in which the

participants consider the implications of four alternative futures and then developed strategic responses.



2.0 ANALYSIS OF KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INFO

2.1 Demographic Profile Over the 15 year period from 1996 to 2011, the population in the City of Chilliwack increased 26% from 62,466

to 78,898. This was significantly higher than Provincial population growth over the same period (18%), similar to

Abbotsford and the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD), which grew 27% and 24% respectively, and less

than Harrison Hot Springs (72%).

Table 2-1: Population for Fraser Valley Regional District Communities and British Columbia, 1996 to 20112

Area Type 1996 2001 2006 2011 % Change

(1996 – 2011)

Abbotsford C 109,539 122,825 129,345 139,343 27%

Chilliwack C 62,466 65,228 71,298 78,9003 26%

Harrison Hot Springs VL 930 1,344 1,578 1,597 72%

Hope DM 6,467 6,257 6,243 6,201 -4%

Kent DM 5,040 5,137 5,318 5,535 10%

Mission DM 31,684 32,441 35,741 37,372 18%

Unincorporated Areas RDR 14,852 15,817 17,204 18,035 21%

Fraser Valley RD 230,978 249,049 266,727 286,981 24%

British Columbia 3,874,317 4,076,264 4,243,580 4,573,321 18% Notes: C City; VL Village; DM District Municipality; RDR Regional District Remainder; RD Regional District

2.2 Labour Force Characteristics The experienced labour force for the City of Chilliwack, GVRD, and BC between 1991 and 2006 is summarized

by industry in Table 2-2. In 2006, the largest labour force categories included retail, manufacturing, construction

and health services. During this time, Chilliwack experienced a steep decline in public administration

employment, as well as losses in primary industries, including agriculture, fishery, forestry and mining. Other

services, manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate, health services, and educational services have all

shown strong growth, outpacing growth experienced in Metro Vancouver (GVRD) and the province.

The Chilliwack labour force as a percentage of the total population declined from 47% to 44% from 2001 to

2006. By comparison, the BC labour force increased from 46% to 52% over the same period.4

Labour force data for the 2011 Census has yet to be released by Statistics Canada and is therefore not available

to determine how labour force activity has changed since 2006.

2 Source: BC Stats (2009) (2011). 3 The census population estimate is less than actual population due to undercounts and incomplete enumeration of First Nations’ on-reserve populations. 4 Source: Statistics Canada (2001) (2006).



Table 2-2: Experienced Labour Force City of Chilliwack, GVRD and BC, 1991 to 20065

1991 1996 2006

Change 1991 to 2006 (% Change)

Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC

Agriculture, Fish, Forestry, and Mining

2,385 19,835 110,020 2355 19,870 109,040 2,210 18,270 96,505 -7.3% -7.9% -12.3%

Manufacturing 1,940 94,435 193,525 2,125 99,070 198,235 3,480 97800 189,120 79.4% 3.6% -2.3%

Construction 2,065 61,280 129,295 2,540 67,560 142,160 3,590 73385 166,100 73.8% 19.8% 28.5%

Wholesale 820 50,925 79,725 1,165 59,975 91,915 1,275 61,655 92,020 55.5% 21.1% 15.4%

Retail 3,480 108,340 223,730 4,020 115,810 238,420 4,295 124,960 248,955 23.4% 15.3% 11.3%

Transportation, Storage, Communication and Utilities

1,415 76,895 141,550 1615 80,515 142,300 1,625 71,300 126,165 14.8% -7.3% -10.9%

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

920 64,575 100,155 1210 71,405 109,975 1,670 85,215 134,940 81.5% 32.0% 34.7%

Education 1,510 53,430 111,420 1,775 66,440 130,980 2,560 83,200 152,565 69.5% 55.7% 36.9%

Health Services 1,860 73,435 148,230 2,920 89,730 180,245 3,240 107,065 213,090 74.2% 45.8% 43.8%

Accommodation and Food 2,020 64,570 139,080 2,180 76,845 160,830 2,350 91,585 180,060 16.3% 41.8% 29.5%

Other Services 2,380 139,145 231,375 3115 174,755 288,990 6,135 291,915 483,005 157.8% 109.8% 108.8%

Public Administration 3,210 42,810 113,575 3,125 41,920 111,420 2,325 44,115 110,585 -27.6% 3.0% -2.6%

Total 24,005 849,675 1,721,680 28,145 963,895 1,904,510 34,755 1,150,465 2,193,110 44.8% 35.4% 27.4%

5 Source: Statistics Canada (1991) (1996) (2006).



Figure 2-1 shows the unemployment for Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack and BC between 2002 and 2011. The

rate in all areas was below 8% between 2003 and 2008, with the bottom reach in 2007—in that year Chilliwack

had an unemployment rate of less than 4%. The recession of 2008-2009 caused a spike in unemployment that

affected the entire North American economy, including Chilliwack, which increased to almost 10% in 2009. In

2011 the unemployment rate in Chilliwack was about 5%, well below the Abbotsford-Mission rate of 9% and

below the BC rate of close to seven percent.6 The largest unemployed groups are aged 15 to 19.

Figure 2-1: Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack, BC Unemployment Rate, 2002 to 20117

Note: Includes City of Chilliwack, Kent District Municipality, and Fraser Valley Electoral Area E

2.3 Personal Income Table 2-3 highlights the total number of tax filers, total personal income and median income for women and men

in 2009 for both Chilliwack and the entire province. In 2009, a total of 58,380 tax filers earned income of

$2.15 billion in Chilliwack. The median Chilliwack income in 2009 was $28,120, which was 4% lower than the

BC median income of $29,405. Median incomes for men and women varied considerably with men earning

$37,160 annually, while women earned $21,840 in Chilliwack. Median incomes for men were higher than those

observed at the provincial level while women lagged the median income generally earned at the provincial level.

Household incomes in Chilliwack are about $64,000, about 12% below the provincial average of $72,600.

Household incomes have increased at the rate of 2.2% per year. While household incomes in Chilliwack are

below the provincial average, residents enjoy disposable incomes that are higher than the provincial average

because the average cost of a single family home is 30% lower than neighbouring Abbotsford, over 60% less

than the average home in Greater Vancouver, and 28% less than the average home in British Columbia (BC

Real Estate Foundation, October 2012. Housing Forecast)

6 Chilliwack’s low rate was attributable to primarily due to the construction and opening of the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre. Abbotsford’s rate is expected to drop sharply due to the pending development of the Wal-Mart Shopping Centre. 7 Source: BC Stats (2012d).

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Uenemploym

ent Rate

Year

Abbotsford‐Mission Chilliwack BC



Table 2-3: Total Chilliwack and BC Tax Filers, Total Income and Median Income, 20098

Chilliwack British Columbia

Number of Tax filers (#) with Income

Male 28,050 1,541,130

Female 30,330 1,652,910

Total 58,380 3,195,820

Total Income ($ Million)

Male $1,273 $77,389

Female $877 $54,710

Total $2,151 $132,099

Median Tax filer Income

Male $37,160 $36,455

Female $21,840 $24,025

Total $28,120 $29,405

Figure 2-2 outlines the change in total personal incomes for the City of Chilliwack between 2001 and 2009. Total

personal income is then compared to the percentage change in total personal income at the provincial level.

Total personal income has risen from $1.24 billion in 2001 to $2.15 billion in 2009, an increase of 73% over the

period. This increase has outpaced the change in income growth experienced at the Fraser Valley Regional

District and provincial level. Total personal incomes experienced particularly strong growth over the period from

2003 to 2007. Between 2008 and 2009, the Fraser Valley Regional District and the province both experienced a

decline in total income, while Chilliwack narrowly avoided a decline posting a small increase in total income.

Chilliwack Total Personal Income % Change in Total Income (2001=100%)

Figure 2-2: Change in Total Personal Income for Chilliwack, Fraser Valley RD and BC, 2001 to 2009.9

8 Source: BC Stats (2011c).

$1,244

$2,158

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$ M

illio

ns

Year

173%153%

149%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Year

Chilliwack Fraser Valley RD

British Columbia



As illustrated in Figure 2-3 in 2009, Chilliwack closely matched the range of incomes experienced at the

provincial level. While a slightly smaller share of Chilliwack residents earned less than $15,000 per year than

observed at the provincial level, a slightly smaller share of Chilliwack residents earned $50,000 or more than

observed at the provincial level. In 2009, 30% of Chilliwack residents earned between $25,000 and $50,000 in

2009 compared with 28% at the provincial level. The number of people on income assistance in Chilliwack is

increasing. In the Hope and Chilliwack subdivision it rose by over 40% from July 2008 to July 2012, compared to

a 35% increase for the Fraser Valley as a whole)10. This is believed attributable to the lingering effects of the

2008-2009 recession.

Chilliwack

British Columbia

Figure 2-3: Chilliwack and BC Personal Income Ranges, 2009.11

Income inequality

The disparity of incomes between the poorest 20% of the population and the wealthiest 20% is rising in Canada (it increased by 20% from 1981 to 2010). This same trend is occurring in BC, which is now the most income unequal of all the Canadian provinces. This is cause for concern because many social problems (e.g., drug abuse, certain types of crime, infant mortality, etc.) have been shown to correlate very positively with income inequality (Wilkinson, 2009).

A common statistic that is used to calculate the level of income inequality is the GINI coefficient, where a coefficient of zero indicates perfect equality while a coefficient of 1 indicates maximum inequality (where one person accounts for 100% of the incomes). Among OECD countries the GINI coefficient ranges from .25 to .5. The GINI coefficient for Canada is .39, making it 24th among the 35 OECD countries. The following statistics suggest that Chilliwack has a slightly lower level of income inequality than BC:

9 Source: BC Stats (2004a, 2004b, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009b, 2010b, 2011c). 10 Data provided by Robert Bruce, Executive Director, Ministry of Social Development, January, 2013

11 Source: BC Stats ( 2011c).

$15k or less28%

$15k to $25K19%

$25k to $40k20%

$40k to $50k10%

$50k+23% $15k

or less30%

$15k to $25K16%

$25k to $40k18%

$40k to $50k10%

$50k+26%



Percentage of low income families: 9.9% (Chilliwack) vs. 13.3% (BC)12.

Percentage of low income male lone-parent families: 15% (Chilliwack) vs. 13.9% (BC)9.

Percentage of low income female lone-parent families: 24.1% (Chilliwack) vs. 25.6% (BC)9.

Percentage of low income seniors (65+) 12.6% (Chilliwack) vs. 14.7% (BC)9.

2.4 Business Licences The City of Chilliwack tracks the number of establishments through its business licence records. In 2011, 48% of

the total 3,652 licences were for home-based businesses. Another 41% were for commercial businesses and the

remaining 11% industrial businesses (City of Chilliwack 2012d).

The change in the number of industrial and commercial establishments in Chilliwack in 1992 and 2011 is

presented in Appendix A, Table A-1 and A-2. A summary by major industry is shown in Tables A-3, A-4 and A-5.

Observations about these data include the following:

Between 1992 and 2011, the cumulative number of industry establishments grew 3.3%, with construction

and some manufacturing industries leading the way. The primary sectors, including agriculture, forestry and

mining, as well as utilities, either declined or grew only marginally. The traditional primary sectors, even

though they account for key segments of the economic and job base, have never represented a significant

share of locations or establishments.

Manufacturing is a diverse industry sector with some segments growing while others are contracting. Metal,

machining and wood establishments are growing at above-average rates.

The growth in services establishments averaged 1.7% between 1992 and 2011, led by financial services,

membership organizations, retail, education and business services. The number of core services

establishments such as banks, furniture stores and real estate services either declined or grew marginally

between 1992 and 2011. However, the average size of establishment, in terms of floor space and

employment, appears to have increased due to the influx of large-format stores and supercentres.

Commercial establishments outnumber industrial establishments by a wide margin due to their smaller

average size as measured by employment and floor space. However, the share of industrial establishments

grew from about 12% of the total in 1992 to 16% in 2011. This indicates a continuing area of growth in

establishments engaged in goods producing activities.

12 Source: (BC Stats, 2006).



Figure 2-4: Number of Business Establishments by Major Industry, 1992 to 2011.13

2.5 Office Development Costs The Metro Vancouver Chapter of the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association (NAIOP) recently published its latest annual survey of office development costs in the Lower Mainland. The results indicate that Chilliwack scores sixth out of 20 communities on the costs of developing a theoretical commercial building valued at $7.8 million. Chilliwack ranked first in terms of the commercial to residential tax ratio and development approval times.

Table 2-4: Chilliwack Ranking in Development Process Metrics, 201214

Category TOL Rank in MV (out of 20)

Subdivision permit $720 1

Building permit $54,517 9

DCC Charges $182,720 9

Water Hook-up Fees $80 5

Sewer Hook-up Fees $160 6

Development permit fees $581 4

Commercial Property Taxes $73,711 9

Business to Industrial Tax Ratio 2.12 1

Time Required to Complete Development Permitting* (days) 30-90 1

Overall Municipal Fee Rank - 6

Note: * Based on $7.8 million of building and site improvements without land cost.

13 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d). 14 Source: NAIOP (2012).



The total value of building permits declined by 50%, from about $200 million to $100 million between 2006 and

2011, as shown in Figure 2-5. This compares with a drop of 25% and 26% for the Fraser Valley and BC,

respectively for the same period (Fraser Valley Community Facts sheet printed August 2012). However, the data

do not include activity on First Nations’ reserve lands, including the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre, which

would have placed the Chilliwack area in a much improved position during the 2009 to 2010 period.

Figure 2-5: Value in building permits per year 2005 – 2011.15

Note: Does not include activity on First Nations reserve lands. If the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre development is included in the estimates, then 2009 and 2010 building permit totals would have been near or exceeded historic highs.

2.6 Housing Demand As the population grows in Chilliwack the mix of housing is gradually shifting from acreages to single family

homes and from single family homes to townhomes and multifamily homes. Constrained by geography and the

agricultural land reserve, the only avenue is increased density of housing. It is no surprise that the biggest

growth category in the past ten years is duplexes, townhomes and apartments. While the largest dwelling type

is still the single family home, a growing number of them now have secondary suites.

This increased density has also coincided with rising house prices. Property assessments have tripled over the

last ten years. The residential sector accounts for over 80% of that while the business sector represents 15%

(Van Wyk and Van Wyk, 2011).

15 Source: BC Stats 2012e.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$000



Affordable Housing

In terms of affordable housing, Chilliwack is doing better than the Fraser Valley Regional District as a whole. Of

275 applicants for affordable housing in the District (through the BC housing program), only 16% are from

Chilliwack while Chilliwack represents 30% of the population of the District (Van Wyk and Van Wyk, 2011). The

City has approved an Affordable Housing Strategy and a group of local business people have established a

Housing Foundation and an Affordable Housing Reserve Fund. The city is encouraging in a number of tangible

ways, including:

Creating a supportive housing policy.

Establishing a development cost charge (DCC) exemptions for eligible projects bylaw, which has been

applied to a 33 unit supportive housing project.

Approving a new zone to support small-unit, affordable apartment projects.

Supporting the development of a zoning amendment to allow secondary suites and coach houses as part of

the rental stock.

Making a $500,000 contribution towards the development of the (future) Chilliwack Housing and Health

Contact Centre.

About 75% of the residential units in Chilliwack are owned vs. rented, which is slightly lower than the average

municipality in the lower mainland (metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley combined). The average monthly rental

cost in Chilliwack is highest among the 5 major communities in the FVRD albeit by a very small amount. About

11% of households in Chilliwack are in core need of housing, which means that they cannot afford suitable and

adequate housing. This compares with 13% for the FVRD as a whole.

Homelessness in the FVRD increased 13% from 2004 to 2008. About 21% of known homeless persons in the

FVRD were in the City of Chilliwack, indicating that homelessness is a bigger concern in other cities like

Abbotsford. The following housing needs have been identified for Chilliwack:

Clean, safe, and affordable housing for people on disability incomes, women and children fleeing abusive

relationships, and households paying more than 50% of the incomes on rent.

Transitional and supportive housing for people with mental health issues and addictions.

Outreach services for released offenders and inmates serving in community corrections.

Permanent independent housing with adequate supporting housing for those who cannot be housed

without supportive housing.

Detoxification beds for youth.



2.7 Land Use The floor space used by major industry in Chilliwack between 1992 and 2011 is presented in Figure 2-6. Unlike

the business establishment data presented above, which showed most of business licences to be in the retail

and service sectors, land use is much more evenly distributed between goods producing and service producing

activities. Overall, industrial businesses accounted for 37% of all floor space in the City in 2011, versus 35% in

1992. Commercial businesses accounted for the 63% of floor space, a slight decline from 65% in 1992.

Manufacturing, services and trade floor space all grew at around 3% per annum between 1992 and 2011, while

financial, real estate and leasing services lagged at 2.3%. Construction grew more rapidly at 5%, while

transportation expanded the most at 5.8%.

The labour force data presented in Table 2-2 shows that between 1991 and 2006, transportation employment

was among the slowest growing of all major industries, trailed only by primary production (i.e., agriculture,

logging and mining) and the public sector. Assuming that the 2013 release of labour force data from the 2011

Census shows a continuing trend to low employment growth in transportation in the City, the land use data

would appear to reflect two adverse trends. The first is growing demand for transportation and warehousing

space that has relatively low employment per work space ratios, and below-average employment growth in

transportation occupations. While construction employment has been more robust, it also has not kept pace with

the increase in demand for construction-related land in the City.

Both these trends have obvious implications for future community job creation objectives in that demand for land

is occurring in sectors that may not necessarily deliver on job opportunities.

Figure 2-6: Industrial and Commercial Floor Space (m2), 1992 to 2011.16

16 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).

1992 2000 2005 2007 2011



The location of industrial and commercial land by Chilliwack sub-area in 2012 is shown in Figure 2-7. Village

West accounts for 31% of all commercial and industrial land, followed by Chilliwack Proper (27%),

Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow (21%) and Sardis-Vedder (18%). Almost all the industrial land is situated in

Village West and Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow, whereas Chilliwack Proper and Sardis-Vedder dominate

commercial and shopping space.

Figure 2-7: Industrial and Commercial Area (ha.) by Sub-Area, 1992 to 2011.17

2.8 Employment by Sector Using City-provided data such as business licenses or parcels with BC Assessment actual use codes, we

mapped economic activity by the number of jobs. To derive employment by sector, we first obtained estimates of

total employment from City staff. We then separated this total into sectors (based on two digit NAICS codes)

using Statistics Canada’s Business Registry, and finally, calibrated sector totals using known Fraser Valley and

Abbotsford totals. To spatially allocate employment, we combined assessment data with city business licenses

and BC assessment data, and mapped them to the two digit NAICS codes. The twelve major categories were

then further broken down into four larger categories to use for cartographic purposes. Depending on the

category, we used either value of improvements, value of land and improvements, or floor areas to create

multipliers to establish specific employment totals for each business license or BC Parcel. Table 2-6 summarizes

methods for employment estimation and employment totals by category. Additional verification was completed

through calibration for both the population and agriculture Censes of Canada (2006, 2012).

17 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012e).



Table 2-6: Current and Projected Employment

Employment Category by 2-digit NAICS Code Estimation Method 2012 Estimated Jobs*

Commercial Accommodation and food services; Business, building and other support services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical services; Retail and Wholesale.

FAR, $ Improvements 17,945

Industrial Transportation and warehousing; Construction, Manufacturing.

FAR $ Land and

Improvements 4,695

Institutional Educational services; Health care and social assistance; Information, culture and recreation; Other services.

FAR 9,390

Agriculture and Primary Resources Agriculture, forestry and mining.

$ Land and Improvements

2,500-5,000

TOTAL 34,500-37,115 Note: * Standard of Error 50%

Highlights of Employment Analysis

There are about 37,000 full-time equivalent jobs in the City.

Broadly, 50% of jobs are in commercial/service sectors, 20% in institutional sectors, 15% in industrial sectors and 5-15% in agricultural sectors.18

Retail and wholesale trade is the largest sector at 19% of jobs, then agriculture, forestry and mining at 15%, then accommodation and food at 10%.

Labour force does not match jobs estimates in the City. For instance 17% of labour force is employed in health and education fields versus 12% of jobs available in the City. Another mismatch is agricultural and resource- based industries which accounts for 6% of labour forces versus 5-15% of available jobs. This suggests that agriculture and resource-based workers are migrating into Chilliwack for work from other communities while professional workers living in Chilliwack are migrating out to other communities for work.

Manufacturing and construction sectors are equivalent from labour force to jobs.

Appendix B shows spatial allocation of employment by broad sector.

18 Note employment estimates have been derived based on numerous, and often conflicting sources. For the case of agricultural employment, estimates are based on total agricultural employment in the Fraser Valley area with Chilliwack expressed as a percentage of total agricultural employment from CanSim establishment location counts in the region, as well as from 3rd party business registries, and population and agricultural censes. It should be noted, however, that employment estimates should be verified by a comprehensive employment survey.



3.0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Globally, the economy seems to be recovering slowly from the recent global financial crisis although the situation

is very fragile in both Europe, where a number of countries are close to bankruptcy, and the United States where

extremely high levels of debt pose very significant challenges to our neighbour and largest trading partner.

Some researchers and analysts are suggesting that high levels of debt at the personal, corporate and

government levels are helping to make the economy appear to be better than it actually is. A number of global

trends that could have possible implications for Chilliwack are presented in Section 3-1.

The Provincial Context

More locally, the BC economy and its neighbours to the east are outpacing eastern Canada, boosted by a surge

in mining and oil and gas activity due to high mineral commodity prices and new technology to exploit natural

gas reserves. The employment losses that occurred in the recession have now been fully recouped and BC

employment levels increased 2.2% in 2011 (BC Economic Forecast 2012). These figures were boosted by

construction employment. In the near future transportation and warehouse jobs are predicted to increase as BC,

and the lower mainland becomes a more central hub for trade with Asia.

Employment in accommodation and food services is expected to decline slightly due to a week environment for

tourism and reduced consumer spending. Public sector employment is also expected to decline as the federal

and provincial government try to cut spending.

The Regional Context

The primary economic activities in the Fraser Valley Regional District include agriculture, forestry and

manufacturing. The service sector (including retail, commercial and the public sector) accounts for over 85% of

Chilliwack’s labour force. Farms provide products to the larger population centres to the west. There are a large

number of wood manufacturing firms. The Annual Allowable Cut has remained constant for many years.

Because of lower land prices, the region has attracted industrial and warehouse operations. The increase in the

number of new housing units has helped boost the construction industry.

3.1 Key Global Driving Forces that may Impact Chilliwack Economic Issues:

The global financial system is in increasingly fragile and volatile, with high debt levels.

International trade and foreign investment continue to increase.

The business environment is increasingly complex and faster moving.

Shared use initiatives (car sharing, rent your own things/place) are rising dramatically.

Production-based economic activity is shifting significantly to knowledge-based economic activity.

Work structures are changing with employment becoming more dynamic and less secure.

Disposable incomes are declining as food, fuel and other commodity prices rise.



Social and Demographic Issues:

The population is aging, which is increasing health care costs and changing housing needs, leisure

preferences, and labour force dynamics.

The percentage of people living in cities is increasing.

The urban population of Canada and BC is becoming more ethnically diverse due to immigration.

The global population is rising, putting more pressure on resource use and the environment.

Income inequality is rising and the middle class is shrinking.

General health conditions are declining (rising obesity, diabetes, heart-related diseases and cancers).

Environmental Issues:

Weather events are becoming more severe, average long term temperatures are rising, and precipitation

patterns are changing.

Global CO2 emissions are rising.

Wildfires, insects and disease disturbances are increasing in Canadian ecosystems.

Natural resource commodity prices, including fossil fuel prices are rising and/or volatile.

Ecosystem health is declining and biodiversity is shrinking.

Technology Issues:

The information technology (IT) revolution continues (cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital media).

Bio-science (genetically modification) and information technology are expanding.

Technologies become more miniaturized and decentralized.

Local energy supply technologies are expanding (district energy, solar, wind).

Political Issues:

Security threats continue to increase due to rising resource scarcity.

Global collaboration is increasing but only in a voluntary way and primarily focused on the economy.

Governments at all levels face increasing debt loads and increasing costs.



4.0 RESULTS OF LOCAL ECONOMY SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is a strategic planning method used in

corporate, organizational and community economic planning. In economic development, SWOT helps identify

the community’s assets and gaps and how they might, or might not appeal, to the location decisions being

made by business. It is a straightforward assessment of the community that focuses on not just any asset but

those that are most strategically relevant, that is, those that could create a competitive advantage.

The following SWOT was compiled based on the literature review and interviews with key informants, with a

focus on sustainable strengths, correctable weaknesses and realistic, developable opportunities. The list of key

informants that we interviewed is provided in Appendix C.

A summary of SWOT elements is presented in Figure 4-1.



Figure 4-1: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Overview.



4.1 Strengths Good Quality of Life – Quality of Life is related to cost of living, community safety and resilience, job

opportunities, education opportunities and incomes. Chilliwack has a diverse group of recreation, social,

business, seniors and special interest organizations that contribute to the social fabric and sense of place. The

average single family dwelling cost is 60% less than Vancouver and 30% less than Abbotsford, meaning the

community is very affordable, especially for young families.

Lower Costs – In addition to lower real estate prices, Chilliwack has a lower cost of living and lower labour rates

than other municipalities in the region. This contributes to lower overall business costs and a favourable

environment for labour market expansion and development.

Urban Rural Landscape – Chilliwack offers a mix of rural and urban lifestyles featuring a range of outdoor

recreation opportunities and local entertainment and events. This blend of the country and the city appeals to

current residents but also in-migrants who appreciate the urban amenities as well as the convenience and

access to remote settings and experiences. Industry sectors such as agriculture, film and tourism value will

continue to value and exploit these natural assets.

Strategic Location – Chilliwack’s location on the geographic periphery of the third largest metropolitan area in

Canada offers numerous strategic advantages. Access to trade area of 250,000 with a 30 minute drive and

regional market of close to three million within a one hour drive provides key markets for much of the

community’s manufacturing and heavy industry production. The proximity to port facilities, rail services and the

US border provides many options to get goods and services to national and international markets. The vast

majority of highway traffic between the Lower Mainland to the province’s interior moves through Chilliwack.

Quality Infrastructure – Chilliwack has a distinct set of site specific advantages including access to a critical

mass of labour, transportation, firm networking, research, development and university resources. The access to

multi-modal transportation infrastructure and services and border facilities allows goods to be transported

virtually anywhere in the world. Chilliwack is home to a world-class post-secondary educational facility, the

University of the Fraser Valley (UFV). UFV offers specialized training in agriculture, business, technology, and

trades and is one of the few institutions in Canada with Transport Canada’s Approved Training Organizations

(ATO) designation for its aerospace training programs. Two other colleges, including Vancouver Career College

and MTI Community College, offer specialized programs for residents but also students from outside the

community.

A wide variety of community health services exist in Chilliwack, including Chilliwack Community Services

(volunteers, directory of services, counseling and crisis line), Chilliwack Mental Health (counseling),

Fraser-Cheam Home Support, and a number of facilities offering adult day programs, transportation services,

meal service and rehabilitation services.

Positive Business Climate – Chilliwack is known among real estate and development professionals as one of

the best communities in the Lower Mainland for establishing and growing a business. Industry surveys regularly

show Chilliwack as having among the best ratings for tax fairness, municipal costs and approval times for new

developments. CEPCO is recognized as a best-practice economic development office that has been actively

involved in facilitating new economic activity. This “can-do” attitude is an important element in attracting the

investment capital needed to build the jobs of the future.



Diverse Economic Base – Chilliwack is not reliant on any one industry and maintains a relatively diverse

economic base. The loss of food processing facilities and the decommissioning the CFB Chilliwack in the 1990s

brought considerable upheaval to the community, yet the City is probably more sustainable today because jobs

and incomes are coming from a greater range of productive sectors. Chilliwack is home to the highest

concentration of food processors in British Columbia. It also has one quarter of the province’s farms producing

almost two thirds of gross farm sales, while only occupying 4% of the province’s total agricultural land. The

average 207 frost free days annually and a typical growing season running from March to November will

continue to attract crop and greenhouse production interest. The manufacturing sector generates more than

$1.8 billion in shipments and $618 million in value-added manufacturing. Productive activity is not just focused

on traditional wood products and food processing operations but is expanding into non-traditional, value-added

areas of production.

4.2 Weaknesses Perception as a Rural Community – Chilliwack is known as a farming community by many residents and the

business community in the Lower Mainland, and while the agricultural roots of the community are apparent, this

perception may be preventing some businesses who are interested in relocating or expanding from considering

Chilliwack as a viable location.

Urban Rural Conflicts – While the urban/rural mix is recognized as a strength, it can also create challenges,

including conflicts between farmers and neighbouring residential areas concerned about farm practices. For

example, the odours created by some producers and open air burning of agriculture waste have raised concerns

among residents. As the population increases and if agriculture activity, including food processing, expands, the

conflicts are likely to increase in magnitude in the future.

Downtown Core Challenges – There are signs of distressed properties in Chilliwack, mainly in the downtown

core and in some other shopping areas. Unappealing highway frontage with poor signage and way-finding

information is a contributing factor. In downtown, there are few anchor tenants capable of attracting large

number of customers, which is essential for creating a sense of vitality and place. Empty storefronts, absentee

landlords and challenges assembling land parcels that would attract developer interest are challenges. Ensuring

public safety and mitigating anti-social behaviour in the downtown goes hand-in-hand with renewing the

downtown as a centre of community activity.

Disadvantaged Groups – Chilliwack has a relatively good quality of life with reasonable living and business

costs. On the downside, these features also attract lower income families and disadvantaged segments of

society who may lack the resources and means to improve their standard of living. When compared with the BC

average, Chilliwack has a higher proportion of single parent families with children, people on income assistance

and seniors receiving the guaranteed income supplement. This can stress community services and in the case

of youth especially, prevent their integration into the workforce at a time when many industries are experiencing

skill and labour shortages.



Public Transit Infrastructure – Chilliwack does not have a very well developed transit infrastructure. This

exacerbates traffic congestion and limits the ability for Chilliwack businesses to hire certain workers who have no

easy way to commute to work from one-car households. This also impacts students who find it difficult to get to

the University campuses for courses or to participate in job skills training programs. There is a regional transit

plan for Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley Regional District, and as the population grows it is hoped additions to

services will generate economic, social and environmental benefits.

4.3 Opportunities Land Use and Redevelopment – Chilliwack has a mix of lands that can be used to further develop the

economy of the community and attract new residents. By continuing to enhance the liveability of the community

with more green space, parks, walking and biking trails, and other amenities that local residents’ desire will help

retain existing residents and attract new residents. In addition, redevelopment that creates space for new

industrial and commercial opportunities and focuses on reducing conflicts with residential areas will lead to new

business opportunities and make Chilliwack more attractive to the desired workforce and their families.

Downtown Core Revitalization – Redevelopment of the downtown core area could accelerate revitalization and

business attraction of this area and serve as a key economic development opportunity in the community. The

downtown has experienced persistent economic decline because of the small number of anchor tenants capable

of attracting large number of customers to the downtown. By maintaining the downtown as a critical component

of the City that is attractive and safe, with a diversified and inclusive social mix, a growing population, and overall

increased liveability, will support economic growth objectives, and maintain Downtown as a civic centre and

people-gathering place.

Agriculture and Food Processing – Chilliwack accounts for 25% of the province’s farms (while only occupying

4% of the total agricultural land), and produces more than 62% of BC’s gross farm sales. It is therefore well

positioned to attract new agricultural businesses and to expand, and diversify agricultural activities. In addition,

new technology and changing demographics are creating opportunities and market niches for the local

agriculture sector to offer a new variety of goods and services. For food processors, Chilliwack is a desirable

location due to its source of raw materials and proximity to major transportation and distribution points. Space is

available and primed for development in the agri-business subdivision of Kerr/Brannick. As well, the emergence

of smaller food processing facilities, as farms incorporate small food processing facilities and retail outlets into

their business, positions Chilliwack to further grow this cluster.

Major Industry Attraction – Chilliwack has advantages over neighbouring communities when it comes to

industrial lands and services to the industrial sector. Specifically, the opportunity exists for Chilliwack to leverage

available, serviced and reasonably priced industrial land close to Cascadia markets to attract new industrial

businesses. In addition, the community has an excellent multi-modal transportation system, and a state-of-the-

art $21 million University of Fraser Valley Trades and Technology Centre that provides skilled employees that

can help the business capitalize on new opportunities. In addition, the community has access to industrial lands

at the local airport that can be used to develop an aerospace and aviation industry locally. More than twenty

aviation service companies are located at the airport and with available land to foster further growth in this

strategic sector (Wilkins 2013, pers. comm.).



Tourism – Its location on the Trans-Canada Highway and its proximity between Metro Vancouver and the

surrounding spectacular outdoor recreational assets in the area has positioned Chilliwack as one of the

province’s key recreational Gateways. Already considerable numbers of travellers move through Chilliwack and

the potential exists to increase the number of multi-day visits in the area and activities enjoyed locally. In

addition, an opportunity is emerging to link to the diversification of agriculture through growing agri-tourism.

Other opportunities are related to golf courses, fishing for salmon, steelhead and sturgeon, surrounding

provincial parks such as Cultus Lake and Bridal Falls and the backcountry experience in the Columbia and

Chilliwack river valleys. It will be important to develop tourism opportunities that encourage people to come and

stay in the community instead of just using it as a stopping point.

First Nation Partnerships – Stó:lō First Nations are active partners in economic development in the Chilliwack

area. The Stó:lō Nation Bands have considerable landholdings in and around Chilliwack and are actively

developing economic activities in several areas. Stó:lō Community Futures, one of a handful of First Nation CFs

in the province, already offers business counselling, business loans for small to medium-sized Aboriginal

businesses, and works collaboratively with the 24 Stó:lō Nation communities within the Stó:lō traditional territory

on initiatives to improve community economic development. Collaborative economic development with the Stó:lō

First Nations is an opportunity to leverage new business activities desired by both communities.

Advanced Education – The University of the Fraser Valley is expanding its advanced education capacity

through Canada Education Park, which occupies the former Canadian Forces Base Chilliwack. This will help

expand the skills in the local labour force and create new opportunities for attracting new students and their

families. Partners in Canada Education Park include Chilliwack Economic Partners Corp., the City, Canada

lands Company, the RCMP, the Justice Institute of BC and Canadian Border Services Agency.

4.4 Threats Demographic Change – Demographic change is affecting Chilliwack in many ways, including the overall aging

of the population and workforce. Given the existing urban/rural conflicts, population growth will present

challenges unless it can be managed in line with community expectations. Urban sprawl and the loss of green

space may accompany or exacerbate the situation. The aging population and work force will have profound

implications for the local economy particularly if it cannot be at least partially offset through the retention of youth

and young working families. Some cornerstone industries like forestry, agriculture, construction and

machinery/equipment manufacturing are having increasing challenges attracting skilled workers. Many farm

owners and producers who are approaching retirement will have succession issues that may interfere with their

living standards. Lower levels of school-aged children will have implications for the education sector and in some

cases, the viability of schools themselves.

High Unemployment – Although Chilliwack’s 2011 unemployment rate was lower than Abbotsford’s, the

general trend over the last 10 years indicates a higher unemployment rate than either Abbotsford or BC. The

ability to create jobs that provide opportunities for residents is fundamental to building a healthy and vibrant

community. Assuming that Chilliwack will grow as projected in the future; there will have to be at least a

proportional or greater increase in employment opportunities to maintain living standards.



Commuting Requirements – Without an increase in jobs that matches population growth, the labour force in

Chilliwack will have to commute out of the community to find employment that is career-oriented and able to

provide family supporting wages. This results in added time and costs for working residents and has implications

for economic growth, social development and environmental quality.

Value of the Canadian Dollar – The value of the dollar has had a marked effect on many economic indicators

over the last five years, especially when it exceeded par with the US dollar. Exports become less competitive

and the provincial trade and travel deficits widen. In tourism, the rise of the dollar has made travel to this country

by non-residents more expensive, and travel outside the country by residents more attractive. For example, the

number of US visitors coming to BC has declined steeply over the last decade, which has had adverse

consequences for many tourism operators. The film industry is also impacted by a high Canadian dollar.

Environmental Quality – As the population grows and economic activity expands, there will be increasing

pressure on water and air quality that are essential to the community’s quality of life. As a confined air shed, the

Fraser Valley Regional District is the recipient of pollution from the entire Lower Mainland with negative impacts

on human health and some industries such as crop production. The intensification of agriculture also creates

risks for Avian flu type viruses and the spread of crop pests. Development on steep terrains and removal of

hillside forests due to increasing growth pressure is also a serious threat to the City's future environmental

quality.

Rising Land Costs – Escalating property values are a fact of life for all Lower Mainland communities, including

Chilliwack. Given the rapid projected population growth of Chilliwack, residential, commercial, and industrial

property prices may inhibit new businesses and/or employees from moving to the City. Further, and as noted in

the Agriculture Area Plan, speculative buying of agricultural land in anticipation of rezoning is contributing to

higher costs for food production,

Limited Commercial and Industrial Land Base – As the population grows and there is more demand for

housing space, the land area available for businesses will further decline. This will create a need for the city to

be more selective in the types of businesses that it encourages (e.g. those that create more jobs per land area)

and to ensure that vacant brownfield sites that become vacant or unused are redeveloped in a timely manner.

Given that there are not expected to be any lands removed from the ALR, there will be increased pressure to

find ways to use available land more intensively.



5.0 STAKEHOLDER INPUT We obtained input from the local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:


A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants held on November 15, 2012;

A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19, 2012; and


The results of the key informant interviews were incorporated into the SWOT analysis in the previous chapter.

The results of the other stakeholder engagement methods are presented in the following sections.

5.1 Stakeholder Workshop A 3.5 hour workshop was held at the Chilliwack cultural centre with about 25 community representatives

representing a wide range of economic interests and sectors. The workshop consisted of three main

components:

A discussion of the implications of and responses to four possible future scenarios for Chilliwack;

Development of key economic strategies in four broad categories; and

Development of an economic vision statement for Chilliwack.

The results of the future scenarios exercise is presented in Appendix D. The results of the others components

are described below.



5.1.1 Key Economics Strategies

After completing the scenarios exercise the participants were asked to develop a set of robust strategies that

would be successful under multiple scenarios. The results are summarized below.

Business:

Support smaller and more local retailers.

Improve infrastructure and transit.

Expand trades training and education.

Increase productivity, particularly for agriculture.

Encourage specialized and value added local food production (blueberries, corn).

Promote ecotourism opportunities such as sport fishing.

Create a pro-business climate with fewer regulations and less red tape.

Place:

Create better understanding of infrastructure for both residents and visitors.

Be more responsive and flexible in land use planning without compromising standards.

Review and develop transit and transportation to complement overall community development.

Promote responsible densification, including diverse housing options (i.e., Hubs, existing areas).

People:

Expand the skill set of community members.

Encourage training in the creative industry (e.g., arts, crafts, design, film, music, publishing, software).

Engage youth in community.

Encourage inter-generational learning and living.

Create integrated lifestyle living (village environments).

Provide cluster services for seniors.

Provide a safe community with adequate health services.

Include all income levels in economic planning.

Establish more community gardens.

Sustainability:

Intensify land use planning.

Promote applied science and technology to support ecologically responsible agricultural productivity.

Develop eco-friendly tourism destination programming.

Foster a healthy community with good transportation, bike lanes and locally sourced goods.

Market our resources and opportunities to the global community.

Provide affordable, safe, low impact housing for students, seniors and young families.



5.1.2 Economic Vision Statement

The participants developed a series of economic vision statements that are grouped below under ten themes.

Themes Statements – “An economically prosperous Chilliwack …”

A complete community

Is an attractive place to live, work, socialize and raise a family

Is a great place to live, learn, recreate and spend your entire life in

Is full of opportunities for people to work, live, recreate and learn

Is self-sufficient

A sustainable community

Is socially and environmentally responsible with beautiful design

Has more bike lanes on developed streets

Has a strong business sector that practices corporate social responsibility

Is environmentally progressive (e.g. acts to reduce env. impacts)

A thriving community

Has good employment prospects and opportunities for young people

Has a vibrant, thriving downtown

Has the strongest economic growth in the lower mainland

A healthy community

Is a safe and healthy place where everyone wants to live

Enjoys abundance, prosperity and health

Has a safe healthy environment

A diverse, healthy living community

A diverse community

Is an economically prosperous community that embraces diversity

Has a strong, diverse employment base

Promotes diversity and inclusiveness in housing and community planning

A caring community

That gives a subsidy to families in need to use recreational facilities

Encourages and develops its youth

Provides a comfortable and self-fulfilling lifestyle for all groups

Recognizes strong family needs

An inclusive community

Is inclusive, empathic and engaged

Is socially and economically inclusive

Is integrated with age and classes and education

A learning community Supports change through technical advancements and education

Gives visionaries and dreamers the freedom to fulfill their dreams

A tourism community

Has world class outdoor recreation opportunities that appeal to both national and international visitors, year round

Markets tourism to outside communities

Is tourism literate and welcomes the world

An agricultural community

Has a flexible agricultural sector that can take advantage of niche markets

Has value added agricultural products that meet world market standards

Is globally recognized as leaders in agriculture and applied technology



5.2 Focus Group Sessions On November 19, 2012, we conducted focus groups with three industry sectors: Manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. The key recommendations from each session are summarized below.

5.2.1 Manufacturing Sector

The following recommendations were made to improve the manufacturing sector (the number indicates the number of votes for each recommendation):

Recommendation Notes

Work with manufacturers to attract suppliers and distributors to existing businesses (6)

Having suppliers/distributors in the same community reduces business costs and creates industry clusters that are mutually reinforcing.

Maintain tax competitiveness between industrial and residential land owners (6)

Chilliwack has the lowest commercial to residential tax ratio in the lower mainland. This is viewed as key to creating a favourable business climate.

Build more amenities (skating rinks, hospitals, roads) to attract high quality workers (6)

The participants agreed that a “complete” community with a full range of recreational and community services helps to attract high quality workers.

Create flexibility around zoning and re-zoning (6)

As an example, an industrial firm that wanted to downsize and rent out space to a commercial firm. That triggered a requirement to add parking and trees that removed the financial benefit to the industrial firm. Another person indicated that his business was prevented from expanding because it was on the wrong side of the road for zoning.

Reduce municipal bureaucracy that inhibits business development. Make regulations clear. (5)

The group cited requirements to have a minimum number of parking spaces in an industrial area where they were not needed or a requirement to plant trees in areas where they did not make sense.

Make it easier to obtain labourers (even unskilled labourers) to fill jobs (4)

The lack of access to labour inhibits business activity. Some participants felt this was a problem while others did not, indicating that advertising methods may be part of the problem. It was agreed that there is a shortage of skilled labour in skilled manufacturing jobs (e.g., welders). Flexible working arrangements were cited as a solution.

Create level playing field by ensuring that firms manufacturing on agricultural land are charged mfg. tax rates(4)

The participants cited numerous cases where firms are paying $40 / acre instead of $400/acre in taxes because they are manufacturing on land zoned for agriculture where they should be on industrial land19.

Capitalize on the new University of Fraser Valley (UFV) trades and technology facility (4)

Currently, training is only provided for year 1. After that students have to go to another educational institution.

Improve public transit to get employees to work and make it easier to get around Chilliwack (4)

There was strong agreement that transit needs to be improved. One person mentioned creating flexible zoning to all employers to live closer to work. Participants noted that Surrey has created multi-use zones. Employers should be encouraged to subsidize employee transit passes.

Improve urban/rural interactions (4) Participants cited risks to businesses if these conflicts grow. Odours from agricultural operations were mentioned as an example.

Discourage holding industrial land for speculative purposes (2)

This restricts access to industrial land that could be used to help increase economic activity.

Improve rural road maintenance and snow removal (2)

Participants noted the importance of being able to deliver products as they are being produced.

19 The City of Chilliwack Finance Department could not confirm or deny the tax rates indicated by the participants because the tax charged on a per $1,000 of assessed value basis not on a per acre basis. However, they acknowledged that agricultural land assessment values are set by the provincial government and are much lower than commercial and industrial land.



Other recommendations for the manufacturing sector included:

Focus on helping manufacturing businesses that are already here;

Improve access to skills training;

Keep industrial land costs low;

Give local firms preferential treatment when bidding on municipal projects; and

Create a directory of local companies and ask CEPCO to promote it.

5.2.2 Agriculture Sector

The following recommendations were made to improve the agriculture sector:


Communicate with the Agricultural Land Commission (ALC) about more effective land use for all parties (9)

The discussion needs to include land use priorities (intensive vs. non-intensive land uses), whether or not to allow greenhouses (even if they have concrete foundations), and reclassification of agricultural lands (AL). It was agreed that there should not be a blanket policy to support all land in the ALR even if it is poor quality or a fragmented parcel. Different zoning is needed for a pig farm and a greenhouse. We need zoning by land use.

Help the agriculture sector tell its story/highlight the broad benefits of agriculture (9)

Agriculture is seen as being less desirable because it has a low tax base. It needs support to highlight the benefits of buying locally produced agriculture products (e.g., 100 mile diet approach). It also needs to tell the story of how it is being environmentally responsible. Conduct an annual conference on agriculture in urban areas.

Expand research and development on agricultural issues (9)

Create an agricultural incubation centre. Advocate for the food innovation centre to continue (the Centre is slated to close after four years and $400,000 in spending). Provide more assistance on disease control. Build on the strengths of the UFV and add more degree programs. Endow an agriculture research chair and find funding for it. It was noted that the Agriculture Research Centre is cutting back on researchers because of funding cutbacks. The berry industry is helping to pay for berry research.

Encourage implementation of the Agricultural Area Plan (9)

The plan has a broad range of ideas that are strongly supported. It just needs a focus to turn the ideas into action and implement them.

Lobby to reduce federal regulations that prevents use of the land (6)

The fisheries act was cited as an example of a federal regulation that has significant costs to agriculture.

Promote Chilliwack farm products as a local brand (5)

A “grown or made in Chilliwack” campaign would help make local consumers aware of the range of agricultural products produced in Chilliwack. This is already happening in a few cases such as “Chilliwack corn.”

Encourage training and education of young farmers and prospective farmers (5)

Youth don’t see agriculture as a desirable career sector. There is a need to create more interest in schools. The AFV is supportive of agriculture but needs to be made more aware of its value. Land should be rented to young farmers at a low cost to entice them to farm more. The sector needs to provide more training for immigrant workers. Chilliwack should copy the Ontario farm start program, which includes mentoring for new farmers. The city could broker these arrangements.

Consider developing of footprint legislation for estate houses on agricultural land (5)

Some estate homes on agricultural land are so large that they limit the use of the land for agricultural purposes. This was not anticipated when estate houses were originally allowed on ALR land. This issue is addressed in the Agriculture Area Plan for Chilliwack.



Other recommendations for the agricultural sector included:

Develop a seasonal workforce program to attract seasonal workers;

Reduce bylaws that negatively impact on agriculture;

Partner with large agricultural players;

Create an agriculture friendly business climate; and

Keep vertically integrated with food manufacturing to create local end markets for agriculture.

5.2.3 Tourism Sector

The following recommendations were made to improve the tourism sector (this group did not vote on particular

recommendations but did identify some as being high priority:


Develop facilities and accommodations so Chilliwack can hold larger events and conferences (HIGH)

Chilliwack does not have the accommodation capacity or facility room sizes to attract major conferences such as medical conventions or the Canadian fire chiefs’ conference. It was recommended that Chilliwack partner with the Stó:lō Nation and develop a strategy to emulate the successful first nation’s partnership in Osoyoos. The current investigation of convention centre feasibility on Lickman Road could lead to further business planning.

Create a plan for accommodation sector development (HIGH)

This is related to the above recommendation but goes further. A need exists to determine the best locations and identify the gaps. Without it, the City is getting more discount hotels on the highway that it doesn’t need or hotels next to industrial land because of the available zoning. The zoning laws that are used to restrict liquor store and theatre locations could be applied to hotels.

Increase transit services for Visitors, especially between Vancouver and Chilliwack (HIGH)

There are few scheduled buses between Chilliwack and other lower mainland Cities. More people would be attracted to the City if it was easier to travel to/from. Rocky Mountaineer negotiated passenger rail access with CN Rail; perhaps Chilliwack could do the same. It was noted that this was considered in the past but the rail costs were determined to be cost prohibitive.

Work to attract diverse businesses and more tourism enterprises

The Cal Tire re-tire centre was cited as an example of a business that enhances diversity. Fishing tackle businesses and equestrian centres were cited as examples of tourism businesses.

Better promote Chilliwack as a regional and global tourist destination

Chilliwack has international recognition as a sport fishing destination but low awareness locally. The City should focus on a few sectors like fishing, hiking and golfing. Regionally, the strategy should be to encourage people to extend their stay instead of just doing day trips. Conventions of various service clubs and professional societies could play on Chilliwack’s central location.

Better promote and revitalize the downtown

There is a need to look at the accommodation gaps and visual aesthetic of downtown. It was noted that as the downtown is developed, businesses will be willing to move in, which will further enhance the vibrancy of the downtown and make it feel safer.




Develop Heritage Park to attract bigger shows

Heritage Park has a good amount of land but needs to finalize a plan on how to develop it. Tourism Chilliwack has just taken over the management of Heritage Park. It was noted that the Culture Centre and Leisure Centre are important assets. Heritage Park is located within the ALR and has some non-farm uses with approval from the Agricultural Land Commission. The ALC would need to review and approve any changes in land use.

Better promote sport tourism

Chilliwack could host events like skate Canada or national field hockey or hockey tournaments where visitors will come and stay for several days during the tournament. The City should collaborate with Abbotsford and Langley on this. The accommodation strategy noted above could support this opportunity.

Expand the existing boat launch and add a second boat launch as well as a river front park.

There is limited access to the river even though it is an excellent tourist amenity. Chilliwack is losing business to other communities on the river because it does not have good river access or river-side facilities and accommodations. Island 22 needs to be enhanced and protected from flooding. A river park with bike paths along the Fraser River could become a major tourist draw. The river could also be used for transit to/from Mission and Fort Langley. An “Experience the Fraser” concept plan has been developed to create paths and linkages all along the Fraser from Hope to the Ocean.

Improve access to the mountains to expand tourism

It was noted that Mount Cheam is a great mountain for hiking but access to the mountain is poor. Investigate the feasibility of establishing a gondola on the nearby mountain to attract more tourists.

Develop themed day trips Examples mentioned included: farm tours combined with restaurant tourism. First nations tours, river tours, eagle-watching tours, hiking trips.

5.3 Business Community Survey An online and paper survey was issued to Chilliwack businesses to identify issues and opportunities related to

economic development, determine priorities and goals for the city, and establish a vision for the future. 210

surveys were completed.

SECTION 1: GENERAL FEELINGS ABOUT THE CITY’S ECONOMY

Respondents were asked about their general opinions regarding the city’s economy. Over half of the

respondents agreed or strongly agreed that the local economy would grow and prosper over the next year while

roughly one third didn’t know or felt it would stay the same. The large majority of respondents agreed that many

opportunities exist to expand the economy in Chilliwack. Over 70% of respondents were satisfied to extremely

satisfied with the City as a place to do business.



1) Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: "Over the next year, I feel

the local economy will grow and prosper." (Mark one only)

Response Chart Percentage Count

Strongly Disagree 3% 6

Disagree 10% 23

Neither Agree nor Disagree 30% 68

Agree 51% 118

Strongly Agree 7% 15

Total Responses 230

Of these respondents, particular groups felt more strongly than others. Sole employers (i.e., self-employed) and

companies with over 10 employees had higher degrees of agreement that the local economy would grow and

prosper over the next year. However, companies with 1 – 10 employees and those who were headquartered in

Chilliwack showed greater uncertainty. Not surprisingly, companies who were less likely to remain within the

community over the next 5 years were more likely to disagree with this statement.

2) Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: “Many opportunities exist

to expand the economy in Chilliwack? (Mark one only)


Strongly Disagree 2% 5

Disagree 7% 15

Neither Agree nor Disagree 21% 49

Agree 61% 140

Strongly Agree 9% 21

Total Responses 230

Sole employers showed a higher level of agreement with this statement while those who were less likely to

remain in the community over the next 5 years showed less agreement with this statement.



3) How satisfied are you with the City as a place to do business? (Mark one only)


Not at all Satisfied 4% 10

Somewhat Satisfied 23% 52

Satisfied 38% 87

Very Satisfied 26% 60

Extremely Satisfied 8% 19

Total Responses 228

Sole employers, production-based businesses, and companies who were very/extremely likely to remain in the

community over the next 5 years showed a higher degree of satisfaction with the City as a place to do business.

Groups who were less satisfied included companies who were less likely to remain in the community over the

next 5 years, companies who were not headquartered in Chilliwack, and companies with over 10 employees.



SECTION 2: ECONOMIC ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES

4) In your opinion, what are the two most important economic opportunities in the City today?

330 responses were received in total however some comments fit multiple categories and were coded more than once. The responses are summarized as follows:

Industry sector development (165):

Continue to promote real estate, development, and construction sectors (60).

Expand and support manufacturing and industrial sectors, particularly those related to agriculture (35).

Continue to expand and support sustainable agriculture by protecting farmland, supporting and promoting value-added products, and developing facilities as appropriate (34).

Continue to support the local service sector, retail, and restaurants (24).

Continue to support resource industries such as forestry and natural gas (5).

Develop a strong trucking/transportation industry by becoming a distribution hub, enhancing links to other cities, and taking advantage of existing freeway/rail routes (4).

Promote the development of new sector (technology, music, movies) (2).

Develop business opportunities related to seniors’ health/services (2).

General economic development (103):

Promote the growth potential of Chilliwack by advertising the availability of land, affordable housing, business-friendly environment, and desirable community attributes (31).

Support new businesses and entrepreneurs and seek opportunities for local job creation (29).

Revitalize and redevelop the Downtown core while protecting and promoting heritage (18).

Promote the affordability of housing in Chilliwack compared with surrounding areas and continue to develop a range of affordable housing options (13).

Develop and expand all sectors on available land (residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, agricultural) where appropriate (12).

Municipal role (54):

Take advantage of existing tourism opportunities (e.g., outdoor recreation, agri-tourism, heritage) (25).

Continue to promote a business-friendly government with friendly city staff and lower tax rates (20).

Market the city as a business hub, tourist destination, and desirable community to live in through promotion and trade shows (9).

Community development and education (37):

Continue to enhance community involvement in economic development, encourage local spending and support for businesses, enhance community diversity (not just a retirement community), create more entertainment and recreation opportunities, and support community safety through policing and crime prevention (20).

Continue to enhance and promote education (e.g., University of the Fraser Valley expansion, RCMP Training Centre) and support local trades/skills training (17).

Continue to develop and provide social services (particularly for seniors) (2).



5) In your opinion, what are the two greatest economic threats facing the City today?

331 responses were received in total; however, some comments fit multiple categories and were coded more

than once. Here’s what they said.

Development/Land Use (138):

Over or under-development – sprawl, cost, overdevelopment of some sectors and underdevelopment of others, Agricultural Land Commission (ALC) restrictions (49).

Fragile economy – local and global recession, lack of project funding (21).

Decaying Downtown – core has too many vacancies, needs maintenance and revitalization (21).

Inadequate transportation infrastructure – high fuel costs, inadequate transit, train traffic, lack of linkages to other cities (21).

Loss of agricultural land – urban expansion into agricultural areas, ineffective Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) protection (14).

First Nations land use issues – concerns over land use, uncertainty surrounding land claims, casinos (6).

Lack of certain types of housing – lack of affordable housing, not enough land for single family homes, need apartments Downtown (6).

Municipal role (85):

Inefficient governance (municipal, provincial, federal) – increasing taxes, lengthy bureaucracy, a lack of enforcement for unethical business compliance, poor management of fisheries, lack of business/development incentives (71).

High level of crime, drugs – excessive crime and drugs, property crime (16).

Business/Employment (63):

Lack of jobs -unemployment, poverty, low wages, (especially for younger workforce), high start-up costs for new businesses (22).

Consumers shopping elsewhere –in Abbotsford or across the border, Americanization (21).

Domination of big box retailers – superstores and malls dominating retail market (12).

Local business competition – oversupply in certain sectors, competition, increasing overhead costs, competition with out-of-town businesses for local work (5).

Resource impacts – impacts of logging and mining/agricultural odours (3).

Community (20):

Poor community support – lack of healthcare programs and social services, children at risk, support for homelessness and addiction, community attitudes, lack of identity, overpopulation, rising cost of living (10).

Inadequate education/training – not enough trades/skills training, young people must leave to find employment (7).

Lack of recreation – lack of activities (especially for young people), lack of sports facilities (3).

Environment (6):

Pollution/environmental decline - degradation of air, water, and ecosystem health (4).

Threat of natural disasters and weather-related events (e.g., flooding) (2).



6) Which development priorities do you feel are appropriate for the City?

When asked about appropriate development priorities for the City, respondents generally felt that the listed

priorities were important to extremely important.

Not surprisingly, larger companies (with over 10 employees) and those who have been operating for over 10

years placed less emphasis on assisting entrepreneurs and start-ups while companies operating for less than 10

years were more likely to rank this as an important priority for the City.

Companies headquartered outside of the community and those who were less likely to remain within the

community over the next 5 years placed less emphasis on attracting business to the community. Those with

headquarters outside of Chilliwack were also less concerned with helping existing businesses to expand/grow.

Production-based companies placed slightly more emphasis on development incentives.

A number of other priorities for the City were also suggested; these were generally related to development,

infrastructure, planning, and taxation.

Not Important

Somewhat Important

ImportantVery

Important Extremely Important

Total Responses

Priority Ranking*

Attract business to the community

1 (0%) 11 (5%) 49 (22%) 68 (30%) 97 (43%) 226 2 (82%)

Help existing business expand/grow

4 (2%) 5 (2%) 42 (19%) 72 (32%) 99 (45%) 222 1 (83%)

Assist entrepreneurs and start-ups

7 (3%) 18 (8%) 58 (26%) 67 (30%) 72 (32%) 222 5 (76%)

Reduce red-tape

7 (3%) 20 (9%) 61 (27%) 48 (22%) 86 (39%) 222 4 (77%)

Offer development incentives

13 (6%) 22 (10%) 53 (24%) 58 (26%) 75 (34%) 221 6 (74%)

Improve Infrastructure

2 (1%) 15 (7%) 55 (25%) 56 (25%) 96 (43%) 224 3 (80%)

Other (please describe below)

6 (14%) 0 (0%) 2 (5%) 7 (16%) 29 (66%) 44 -

*Priority rankings have been assigned by calculating the weighted score (sum of all categories/total # of categories).



Other suggested priorities included:

Comprehensive planning, zoning, and taxation (19).

Concentrate on infill development and adaptive re-use (9).

Revitalize the Downtown core (6).

Address transportation infrastructure and road maintenance (6).

Integrate complementary and innovative businesses (3).

Raise awareness and enhance community identity/pride (3).

Attract new residents to the community (2).

Protect and enhance the environment and green spaces/parks (2).

Provide more sports/recreation/fun (2).

Reduce crime (1).

Increase housing (1).



7) Which of the following sectors of the economy do you feel hold strong opportunities for Chilliwack?

Respondents generally felt all the economic sectors listed held opportunities for Chilliwack. The greatest

emphasis was on agriculture and manufacturing, with several comments suggesting an opportunity to add value

to the agricultural sector by expanding local processing facilities. A number of other opportunities were

suggested although these were generally single comments reflecting the respondent’s industry or business. The

greatest emphasis from these suggestions focused on recreational and educational facilities.

No Potential

Some Potential

Average Potential

Good Potential

Excellent Potential

Total Responses

Priority Ranking*

Agriculture 4 (2%) 11 (5%) 32 (15%) 89 (41%) 81 (37%) 217 1 (81%)

Tourism, Heritage, Arts

5 (2%) 27 (12%) 53 (24%) 63 (29%) 71 (32%) 219 4 (75%)

Manufacturing 1 (0%) 13 (6%) 59 (27%) 83 (37%) 66 (30%) 222 2 (78%)

Construction 0 (0%) 12 (6%) 57 (26%) 89 (41%) 59 (27%) 217 2 (78%)

Transportation, Warehousing

3 (1%) 20 (9%) 77 (35%) 65 (30%) 55 (25%) 220 5 (74%)

Technology 1 (0%) 17 (8%) 63 (29%) 78 (36%) 59 (27%) 218 3 (76%)

Professional Services

0 (0%) 18 (8%) 71 (33%) 77 (35%) 52 (24%) 218 4 (75%)

Retail Trade and Restaurants

6 (3%) 27 (12%) 55 (25%) 92 (41%) 42 (19%) 222 4 (75%)


2 (9%) 1 (4%) 0 (0%) 7 (30%) 13 (57%) 23 6 (72%)


Other suggested priorities/comments included:

Educational institutions (3).

Sports and recreation facilities (3).

Retail and restaurants (2).

Health services (2).

Food systems and agricultural support businesses (2).

Environmental businesses (1).

Home based businesses (1).

Real estate (1).

Automotive businesses (1).

Second hand/thrift shops (1).



8) What economic development goals should the community pursue?

Respondents generally supported the economic development goals listed. The highest priorities included sustainable businesses and the creation of local jobs while the lowest priorities included increasing land and expanding the business tax base. A number of other goals were also suggested.

Again, certain groups placed different emphasis on these goals. Sole employers placed a greater emphasis on improving household incomes and less on increasing land availability while larger companies (with over 10 employees) placed less emphasis on household incomes.

Companies with headquarters outside the City and larger companies (over 10 employees) both placed less emphasis on sustainable businesses; however larger companies placed more emphasis on increasing the supply of skilled labour while companies headquartered elsewhere placed less emphasis on local employment. Production-based companies were also less concerned with local labour supply.

Companies who were less likely to remain within the community over the next 5 years placed more emphasis on increasing skilled labour as well as the availability of land for businesses.

Not Important

Somewhat Important

Important Very

important Extremely important

Total Responses

Priority Ranking*

Diversify the economic base

2 (1%) 13 (6%) 65 (31%) 65 (31%) 63 (30%) 208 4 (77%)

Expand the business tax base

7 (4%) 24 (12%) 76 (38%) 57 (29%) 34 (17%) 198 6 (69%)

Create more local jobs

4 (2%) 8 (4%) 29 (14%) 77 (36%) 96 (45%) 214 1 (84%)

Improve household incomes

7 (3%) 6 (3%) 51 (24%) 73 (34%) 76 (36%) 213 3 (79%)

Focus on sustainable businesses

3 (1%) 10 (5%) 33 (15%) 79 (36%) 93 (43%) 218 2 (83%)

Increase land availability for business

19 (9%) 38 (18%) 62 (29%) 45 (21%) 52 (24%) 216 7 (67%)

Increase supply of skilled workers

9 (4%) 12 (6%) 68 (32%) 71 (33%) 55 (26%) 215 7 (67%)


2 (9%) 0 (0%) 1 (4%) 5 (22%) 15 (65%) 23 5 (74%)




Other suggested goals included:

Expand new business development (6).

Agricultural, commercial, and residential (4).

Improve infrastructure and transit (3).

Concentrate on the downtown core (2).

Retain existing jobs and connect to other areas to attract skilled workers (2).

Improve local healthcare (1).

9) If you have a vision for the future economic development of the City, please share it with us in a few short sentences.

Respondents raised numerous issues and opportunities in their visions for the economic future of Chilliwack.

Recommendations based on respondent feedback are listed below. The number of comments corresponding to

the theme/recommendation are listed in brackets.

Enhance Business (28)

Support new businesses/sectors and attract existing businesses to the community (16):

Promote the city’s business-friendly environment and attract new businesses to the area and expand the tax base (5).

Encourage the development of arts, recreation, entertainment, and tourist attractions within the City (3).

Promote the high tech sector to encourage younger skilled workers to relocate to Chilliwack (2).

Promote a diverse economy with a range of retail, service, agriculture, industrial, manufacturing, and institutional sectors (2).

Support new businesses and start-ups through providing low-rent spaces and reducing red tape (2).

Leverage existing businesses to attract suppliers and customers and expand the local supply/production chain (1).

Expand target markets to Asia and Africa (1).

Support the growth and expansion of existing local businesses and sectors (12):

Support the expansion of manufacturing and production businesses, particularly with regards to agriculture (4).

Support local businesses/local shopping and self-sufficiency within the community (3).

Provide incentives for independently owned and operated businesses and reduce/restrict large foreign-owned companies and franchises (2).

Support/promote Downtown businesses to revitalize the heart of the community (2).

Streamline the process for existing businesses to grow and expand within the community (1).



Revitalize the Downtown (25)

Encourage a diverse range of businesses in the Downtown core (e.g., mixed use, businesses,

entertainment, housing) (17):

Plan for Downtown revitalization and infill/adaptive re-use to reduce sprawl and create a vibrant City centre (9).

Promote and support a diverse range of Downtown businesses and entertainment options (3).

Promote mixed use development in the Downtown (1).

Create a historic district Downtown and promote revitalization and adaptive reuse of heritage buildings through developer incentives (1).

Prevent sprawling parking lots that are not needed (1).

Plan and invest in Downtown revitalization with appropriate governmental support for crime prevention,

social services, and maintenance (6):

Invest in maintenance and beautification City-wide, particularly in the Downtown (e.g., crime prevention, cleanliness, social services, etc.) (4).

End the Business Improvement Area (BIA) experiment and focus on the Downtown core as a whole (2).

Promote and support existing Downtown commercial and residential properties (2):

Promote the Downtown area as an affordable residential area, particularly for young people (1).

Promote and support existing Downtown businesses (1).

Improve Governance (19)

Ensure fair and comprehensive taxation and bylaw enforcement (7):

Enforce bylaws to ensure all businesses are treated fairly (e.g., taxing non-compliant businesses operating in farm buildings, ensuring all businesses are paying property/business taxes) (3).

Reduce personal and small to medium sized business taxes to increase disposable incomes and local spending. Increase property/business taxes for larger companies and developers (2).

Maintain a business-friendly municipal system and streamline business processes (permits, approvals, taxes, fees, etc.) (2).

Ensure political accountability (6):

Provide better political accountability (3).

Continue to remain open and approachable (e.g., friendly and helpful city staff) (2).

Stop long-term P3 partnerships that restrict the city’s flexibility (1).

Plan for future development in a comprehensive manner (e.g., OCP, best practices) (4):

Use the OCP to guide future development in the city and avoid sprawl (1).

Preserve agricultural lands for agriculture (1).

Continue to apply for provincial and federal support (1).

Study other comparable cities and learn best practices for economic development close to major urban centers (e.g., Peterborough, Ontario) (1).



Invest in education and safety (e.g., skills training, crime prevention, flood protection) (2):

Provide and promote educational/training opportunities for young people so that they can remain in the community and find employment locally (1).

Invest in crime prevention and flood protection (1).

Promote Tourism (14)

Establish and promote the Chilliwack “lifestyle” and identity as a means of attracting new residents and

businesses (particularly younger generations) (8):

Promote Chilliwack “lifestyle” in the media - a place to live, work, and play (particularly for younger generations) (3).

Retain scenic agriculture nature (2).

Reduce focus on agriculture and promote new high tech/educational sectors to younger generations (1).

Promote self-sufficiency as a part of Chilliwack’s identity (1).

Maintain and promote heritage as an important part of city identity (1).

Revitalize the Downtown and promote as a tourist destination (3):

Revitalize the Downtown so that it is more attractive to tourists (shopping, entertainment, heritage, festivals, etc.) (3).

Promote existing tourism opportunities and develop new ones (3):

Promote agricultural sectors with bike trails and tourist access (agri-tourism) (1).

Promote outdoor recreational tourism/provide information on hiking/biking trails (1).

Work with First Nations to promote recreation/tourism (1).

Improve Transportation (12)

Enhance vehicle and transit connections within Chilliwack and to nearby municipalities and Vancouver (7):

Reduce transportation time/cost to reach other adjacent municipalities (e.g., Port Mann bridge) (4).

Connect the various areas of Chilliwack (i.e., Sardis, Downtown, Landing) (1).

Enhance transit access to adjacent municipalities (1).

Enhance commuter rail access throughout Fraser Valley (1).

Enhance transit, walking, and cycling networks throughout the city (5):

Enhance pedestrian/cyclist environment and connectivity throughout the city (3).

Enhance the Downtown core to reduce sprawl and transportation time/emissions (1).

Provide smaller buses within town to reduce operating costs (1).



Enhance Land Development (8)

Concentrate development and infill in core areas to reduce sprawl (e.g., Downtown, Vedder Crossing,

Yarrow) (8):

Concentrate development and re-development in core areas to reduce sprawl (e.g., Downtown, Vedder Crossing, Yarrow) (3).

Promote infill and mixed use development in core areas, especially Downtown (2).

Restrict development in satellite communities (e.g., Yarrow, Greendale, Rusedale) (1).

Stop developing agricultural land (1).

Reduce the restrictions on zoning and land use to enhance development diversity (e.g., more mixed use and better integration of different land uses) (1).

Housing (8)

Provide more affordable housing (3).

Increase housing development (3).

Promote awareness of housing affordability in Chilliwack (2).

Amenities (7)

Enhance sport and recreational facilities, particularly for youth (3).

Enhance community amenities and opportunities to serve local communities and attract new residents and

businesses (3):

Enhance recreational facilities (1).

Continue to expand public amenities to serve local communities (1).

Provide recreation and entertainment for young people (1).

Enhance and promote outdoor recreational opportunities (for locals and tourists) (1).

Education (7)

Promote education and skill training so that young people can stay within the community and find

employment locally (5).

Promote the high tech and educational sector to attract the creative class (i.e., young, skilled workers) (2).



Infrastructure (3)

Invest and maintain quality infrastructure, services, and maintenance (3):

Invest in better road and service infrastructure in mountain subdivisions (1).

Reduce the need for roads and transportation upgrades for new developments (1).

Ensure proper maintenance (e.g., landscaping, services) of new developments to maintain quality of life and attractiveness of areas (1).

Encourage development in other areas (2)

Promote infill development along Yale Road (1).

Develop the underutilized west side of Vedder Road as a retail space (1).

SECTION 3: DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

10) How many people does your company employ in the City of Chilliwack?

Almost all the respondents employed less than 25 people. Just over a quarter of respondents were sole

employee business and over half employed 1 – 10 people.


No Employees, Just Myself 28% 61

1 - 10 Employees 54% 119

11 - 25 Employees 16% 35

26 - 50 Employees 2% 4

Over 50 1% 2

Total Responses 221



11) What percentage of your total employees work OUTSIDE the City of Chilliwack?

The large majority of respondents employed people solely from within the City of Chilliwack. A few companies

employed people from outside of the city, and 5 companies employed people solely from outside of Chilliwack (3

of which were sole employee businesses). The table below excludes self-employed respondents with no

employees.

Response Chart Percentages Count

0 54% 87

1 – 25 6% 11

26 – 50 6% 11

51 – 75 2% 4

76 – 100 3% 5

12) Is your company headquartered in the City of Chilliwack?

The significant majority of respondents were based within the City.


Yes 82% 182

No 18% 39

Total Responses 221



13) For how many years has your business operated in Chilliwack?

Respondents showed a range of years in business. The range showed approximately one quarter were in

business less than 5 years, a quarter 6 – 10 years, a quarter 11 – 20 years, and the remaining quarter more than

20 years.


Less than 1 Year 7% 15

1 to 2 Years 6% 14

3 to 5 Years 16% 35

6 to 10 Years 23% 51

11 to 20 Years 26% 57

More than 20 Years 22% 49

Total Responses 221

14) How likely is it that your business will continue to operate in Chilliwack over the next five years?

The majority of respondents were either very likely or extremely likely to continue to operate within the City over

the next 5 years.


Not at all Likely 2% 5

Somewhat Likely 10% 21

Likely 12% 26

Very Likely 29% 63

Extremely Likely 48% 106

Total Responses 221



15) In which of the following industries does your company operate?

The range of industries in which the respondent companies operated was broad. The highest proportion came

from the retail trades, followed by construction and professional services. The proportion of service-based

industries made up about 80% of respondents with the remaining 20% being production-related/development

sectors. These values from survey respondents generally reflect the business composition for the City (see

Figure 2-4, Section 2.4).

Overall, responses from service-based sectors reflected the general consensus. Responses from production-

based sectors placed slightly more emphasis on development incentives and slightly less on creating more local

jobs.

14%

20%

23%

14%

11%

8%

10%

Primary Production andManufacturing

Real Estate and Construction

Trades and Warehousing

Professional Services

Education and Health Care

Entertainment, Food, andAccomodation

Other




Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

11% 25

Mining & Oil & Gas Extraction 1% 2

Utilities 1% 2

Construction 19% 43

Manufacturing 8% 18

Wholesale Trade 6% 13

Retail Trade 22% 48

Transportation & Warehousing (48-49) 4% 9

Information & Cultural Industries 2% 4

Finance & Insurance 3% 7

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 8% 18

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

10% 23

Management of Companies & Enterprises

2% 4

Admin. & Support, Waste Mgmt. & Remediation

0% 1

Educational Services 5% 12

Health Care & Social Assistance 11% 25

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 5% 10

Accommodation & Food Services 6% 13

Other Services (excl. Public Administration)

13% 29

Public Administration 0% 1

Total Responses 221



6.0 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

6.1 Population Population projections for the next three decades ending in 2041 are shown for Chilliwack, the FVRD, Metro

Vancouver, BC, Canada, the US and the world in Figure 6-1. Chilliwack’s projected growth of 62% is

comparable to projected FVRD and BC growth of 60%. Metro Vancouver’s projected growth of 41% would result

in a gradual and continuing shift in the Lower Mainland’s population centre eastward, bringing Chilliwack closer

to the office, industrial and trade core of the region. Growth rates in the other jurisdictions are projected to be

lower, including Canada (46%), the US (34%) and the world population at 28%.

The drivers of change are different among these jurisdictions, especially the world’s population which by

definition can only expand or contract through natural change (i.e. the difference between births and deaths).

Historically, immigration has been a larger contributor to growth in Canada than in the US, where natural

increase is predominant. In the future, BC and the Lower Mainland will continue to benefit from their previous

success in attracting international migrants to Canada.

Figure 6-1: Forecast growth in population between 2011 to 2041. 20

Note: Only includes high growth scenario for Chilliwack, BC, Canada and US

20 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b).

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

2011 2021 2031 2036 2041

Percent Growth

Chilliwack

FVRD

BC

Canada

MV

US

World



Significant population growth over the next 29 years is projected by both the City and BC Stats. As seen in Figure 6-2, Chilliwack expects an increase of 50,919 new residents between 2011 and 2041, representing an annualized growth rate of 1.7% per year. The City of Chilliwack’s projection is higher than that made by BC Stats.

Figure 6-2: Population Forecasts for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2041.21

Two components will contribute to population change. As seen in Figure 6-3, in-migration will account for most of the change, while natural increase (i.e., the difference between births and deaths) will gradually diminish.

Figure 6-3: Components of forecasted population change for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2036.22

21 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b).

133,382

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

Population

Year

City of Chilliwack Forecast BC Stats

82,46



6.2 Population Age Age data provided in Table 6-1 reveals the ageing trend that has characterized Chilliwack’s population over the

last two decades is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. By 2036, 22% of the population will be over

the age of 65 years compared with 17% today. Conversely, 17% of the population will be under the age of 14,

versus 18% today. However, the ageing trend may stabilize and possibly reverse between 2021 and 2036, in

comparison with the province. This means that, starting in about ten years, the City will become progressively

younger than the BC population.

Table 6-1: Chilliwack and BC Age Characteristics, 2001 to 203623

Age 2001 2011 2021 2036

Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC

0-14 21.37% 17.80% 18.41% 15.40% 18.00% 14.70% 16.97% 13.90%

15-24 12.73% 13.50% 13.32% 12.60% 11.35% 10.30% 11.36% 10.40%

25-44 28.11% 31.00% 25.23% 26.30% 26.12% 28.20% 24.88% 25.20%

45-64 21.92% 24.60% 26.46% 30.00% 25.57% 27.20% 24.95% 26.60%

65+ 15.87% 13.20% 16.58% 15.70% 18.97% 19.60% 21.86% 23.90%

6.3 Other Growth Indicators Projected growth trends for indicators other than population up to 2041 are presented in Table 6-2, for Chilliwack

and the FVRD. The number of households and the labour force are both expected to grow at rates that exceed

population growth. The labour force to population ratio is anticipated to grow from 49% in 2011 to 53% in 2041. If

the per capita demand for employment land in Chilliwack is held constant then there would be a proportional

increase in the demand for land over the next 30 years.

Table 6-2: Change in Key Chilliwack Indicators, 2011 to 204124

2011 2021 2031 2041

Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD

Population (%) 100% 100% 122% 117% 142% 137% 162% 161%

Households (%) 100% 100% 126% 121% 153% 144% 183% 170%

Labour Force (%) 100% 100% 125% 121% 149% 145% 174% 170%

Labour Force to Population ratio 49% 45% 50% 46% 52% 47% 53% 47%

22 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b). 23 Source: BC Stats (2012c). 24 Source: FVRD (2012).



6.4 Employment Land Requirements Table 6-3 updates Table 2-6 by adding a column for projected jobs in 2036. The projected jobs are either tied

to population growth or provided by the City of Chilliwack.

Table 6-3: Current and Projected Employment

Employment Category by 2-digit NAICS Code Estimation

Method 2012 Estimated

Jobs* 2041 Projected

Jobs**

Commercial

Accommodation and food services; Business, building and other support services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical services; Retail and Wholesale

FAR, $ Improvements

17,945 30,000

Industrial

Transportation and warehousing; Construction, Manufacturing

FAR

$ Land and Improvements

4,695 7,900

Institutional

Educational services; Health care and social assistance; Information, culture and recreation; Other services

FAR 9,390 15,900

Agriculture and Primary Resources

Agriculture, forestry and mining $ Land and

Improvements 5,085 8,300

TOTAL 37,115 62,100

Notes: * Standard of Error 50% ** Job projections tied to population growth

Table 6-4 uses a simple projection model to show commercial and industrial land requirements to support future

job growth for 2036. The inputs to this model are proposed development types (retail, mall, manufacturing etc.

organized by land use sector (e.g., commercial)). The outputs are proposed floor area of developed structures

and area of land required to accommodate this growth. As institutional and agricultural uses do not grow

predictably with population, they have not been projected for this study.

Chilliwack currently has 12 hectares of commercial land available but has projected demand of 113 hectares by

2041 if current development patterns are assumed and size of parcel is not taken into account. This means that

Chilliwack could conservatively run out of commercial land by 2014 if current trends continue. A similar pattern

would occur with industrial land. There are 76 hectares of industrial land available in Chilliwack but the projected

demand is for 162 hectares at current densities and if parcel sizing is not taken into account, which means that

Chilliwack could run out of Industrial land by about 2025 under current levels of industrial land intensity.



Table 6-4: Commercial and Industrial Current and Projected Land Requirements

Jobs Located on Each Type of Zoned Land

Assu-med

Jobs / sq.m.

New Floor Area

(sq.m.)

Business as Usual

FAR Land Use

2012 2041 2041 Projected Demand

(hectares / acres)

2012 Available Land***

(hectares / acres)

Commercial 21,802 30,000* 36 295,000 0.26 113 / 280 12 / 30

Industrial 1,777 2,918** 118 135,000 0.08 162/ 402 76 / 188

Notes: * This projection is tied to population growth ** Based on historical industrial land consumption *** As provided by City of Chilliwack

6.5 Future Challenges Chilliwack can expect above-average population, labour force and household growth over the next 30 years.

This growth will outpace regional, provincial, national, US and international benchmarks and lead to a community

that is 70% larger than it is today, with proportional increases in demand for employment lands. The demand for

commercial and industrial land could outpace the demand for employment land due to the following key factors:

Chilliwack’s population is ageing but within 10 years it is projected to start getting gradually younger. In

2036, 36% of the population will be under the age of 24 versus 24% for BC. Conversely, it will have

proportionally fewer older adults and seniors than BC. This will drive up labour force participation rates for

many years and contribute to the growing demand for local employment.

Chilliwack has higher proportions of primary, manufacturing and construction employment than either Metro

Vancouver or BC. These goods-producing industries, along with transportation, are the major users of

industrial land. If the City is to maintain its goods-producing workforce and the above-average wage rates

they generate, suitably serviced and located industrial land will be necessary to support new productive

capacity.

The Lower Mainland is land-constrained because of its geography and location next to the US border. The

region has the lowest industrial real estate vacancy rate in North America, and projected low levels of supply

coming on stream in the years ahead (Brent 2012). At the same time, future potential industrial land is under

pressure for other uses, particularly residential, park and mixed uses. In Chilliwack, a considerable portion of the

land base is protected by the Agricultural Land Reserve, which limits supply opportunities and raises land costs.

Metro Vancouver projects that its industrial land supply will be absorbed by the mid-2020s using proportional

growth projections. More intensive use and higher densities could extend that supply into the early 2030s. Under

a more aggressive growth scenario linked to heightened demand from port activities, the land supply would be

largely taken up by 2020. Greater development intensification could increase the land supply timeframe.

(Metro Vancouver 2012b).



Based on a continuation of today’s per capita demand for employment land, the City of Chilliwack would

experience land shortages well before 2036; see Table 6-4 on page 51.

Assuming commercial development proceeds into the future at the same annual absorption rate and

density, the Chilliwack trade area (properties located in Chilliwack and Eagle Landing) has a long term

2041 demand for an estimated 113 hectares (280 acres). In 2012, the city had 190 hectares (470 acres) of

commercially zoned and developed land with an average density of 0.26 FAR. In 2012, the city had 12

hectares (30 acres) of commercially assessed land that was deemed available and feasible25 for new

commercial development. Based on a simple extrapolation of recent trends, Chilliwack will run out of

commercial land within two years. Based on land availability in Eagle Landing, the city should assume

about ten years of available commercial land. Because demands are also rising for residential and

industrial land, it is unlikely that the amount of commercially zoned land can be increased. Therefore, it will

be important for Chilliwack to increase the number of commercial jobs per unit of commercial land and/or

increase the density of commercial lands.

The expected long term 2041 demand for industrial land is 162 hectares (402 acres), while the supply is

113 hectares (280 acres). However, the existing designated supply may not be well suited to demand. The

development potential of vacant industrial areas in Chilliwack differs according to location, current uses,

accessibility, lot assembly, soil conditions, need for pre-loading and development costs. Almost all

vacancies are in the Village West and Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow areas, whereas Chilliwack proper is

built out. The City’s industrial land vacancies may not necessarily match future market demand, in which

case new development and job creation opportunities could be lost to the City and possibly the region. The

City will need to monitor this and develop strategies to better match vacancies with future demand.

Some demand can be accommodated through more intensive use of existing designated lands.

Intensification can occur in many ways and will differ by type of industry. Improvements in supply chain

efficiency, greater use of technology inputs that improve labour productivity and adoption of shift work can

all reduce the demand for land.

Some industrial properties in Chilliwack have redevelopment potential, which could intensify use in the

future and alleviate potential supply shortages. However, specific locations, access to transportation

services and land prices will closely influence where development occurs.

Municipalities are being encouraged by regional planning bodies and the real estate industry to adopt policies

that support the redevelopment and intensification of industrial lands, including the following:

Reform industrial zoning bylaw provisions that restrict industrial intensification potential (such as overly

restrictive building height limits, building setbacks, floor area or site coverage limits);

Reduce development guidelines that are for aesthetic purposes only;

25 Feasible is defined as land that is either serviced or near services and land that is suitable for this type of development type (e.g., not hillside or ALR land).



Pre-zone lands for higher density industrial uses (manufacturing vs. storage);

Promote business expansion that leverages more intensive land use and inform land owners of

opportunities related to un-used and under-utilized properties;

Prioritize local infrastructure that clusters and encourages industrial development;

Use land assembly and land swaps to facilitate relocation and land development; and

Incentivize industrial intensification (Metro Vancouver 2012b).

7.0 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS In this chapter, we present an economic vision statement and a list of key economic goals and strategies. These

are designed to provide an economic roadmap for Chilliwack over the next 25 years and help provide a strong

economic foundation for the development of Chilliwack’s Official Community Plan. These goals and strategies

have been synthesized from the baseline economic assessment, the stakeholder workshop and focus groups,

the business survey and the economic forecasts.

7.1 Vision Statement Below we outline a short and a longer economic vision statement for the City of Chilliwack. These statements

consider the planning direction for CEPCO and address development and land use, employment and business

climate, the environment and community. They also draw heavily on the vision statements crafted by the

workshop participants in section 6.1.3.

Short vision statement:

“Chilliwack is a healthy, safe, prosperous, complete, and diverse community that cares for its

citizens and the environment and has a strong mix of amenities, services, recreation

opportunities and natural assets to attract and retain businesses that create well-paying jobs

in manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and other sectors through ongoing skills training and

applied technology.”

Long vision statement:

“Chilliwack is a healthy, affordable, prosperous, and complete community where citizens and

the environment are cared for and cherished.

Chilliwack’s services, amenities, education, training, recreational opportunities and natural

areas are key to attracting and retaining businesses and people looking for high quality

employment opportunities.

Diverse employment and income opportunities are abundant in sectors that take advantage

of Chilliwack’s locational and strategic advantages. Key growth sectors include

manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and service sectors.”



7.2 Goals Taking into consideration all the feedback we received and information we obtained from all sources, we have

identified eight high level goals for Chilliwack. The backdrop for these goals is that the City is about to become

one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada.

BUSINESS

1) Position and promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s sustainable business community.

2) Enhance and expand Chilliwack’s business and investment climate.

PLACE

3) Continue to revitalize the downtown core.

4) Increase employment intensity on commercial and industrial land.

PEOPLE

5) Contribute to a learning economy through workforce development.

6) Create economic participation opportunities for disadvantaged residents.

SUSTAINABILITY

7) Improve transportation infrastructure for employees and visitors.

8) Become a model community in advancing the green economy.



7.3 Objectives and Supporting Actions For each of the above mentioned goals, we present some key objectives and supporting actions.

GOAL 1: Position and Promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s Sustainable Business Community

Objective 1A: Create a Community-Wide Brand Identity

Rationale: Chilliwack is being marketed and promoted in many different forums, to different audiences and

economic sectors and by multiple organizations in the private, public and non-government sectors. Any

organization that is engaged in communications activities or attempting to draw in visitors, investment,

businesses or people is part of this market environment. Workshop and focus group participants felt that there

could be a more cohesive and coordinated approach to community-wide promotion by developing a brand

identity that could be used by all organizations in Chilliwack. The concept would be to build a unique focus that is

differentiated from other, nearby regions. It would blend what Chilliwack does well, with what citizens and visitors

value, into something that becomes a unique selling proposition for Chilliwack over time. The urban-rural-

agricultural-wilderness mix could be the foundation of the brand and create buy-in from stakeholders. The more

the brand is used, the more it instills a sense of value and distinction among different audiences. The City has

recently undertaken a brand positioning exercise and developed new graphics standards. This would be a good

opportunity for creating more awareness, use and coordination of co-branding in the community.

Expected Outcomes:

Support by the City, CEPCO and the business community.

Consistent application and use by stakeholders.

Improved awareness of Chilliwack as a visitor and business destination.

Supporting Actions:

Promote and encourage use of the new brand positioning.

Involve a wide range of government, business and civic leaders.

Develop the brand based on an inventory of true differentiators and compelling attributes.

Consistently demonstrate the brand in the communications, marketing and promotional activities of the City

and its partners.



Objective 1B: Promote Chilliwack as a Destination for Businesses, Visitors and New Residents

Rationale: Almost every element of economic development planning is supported by the communication of

messages and ideas to internal and external audiences. Traditionally, communities would promote themselves to

attract new businesses whereas today it is important to recognize that a much broader range of activities are

needed to build productive capacity, employment activity and wealth. This could mean targeting private and

public investments required to build new infrastructure and services, or perhaps increasing visitors to the

community to supplement local expenditures by residents. Attracting new residents that will enrich the labour

force and keep neighbourhoods, schools and civic affairs vibrant is clearly associated with community

perceptions, awareness and marketing. The community consultation process suggested that Chilliwack had

done a good job in the past positioning itself as a business-friendly community, and this approach could be

expanded to generate more interest and participation in business development.

Expected Outcomes:

Priority targets and messaging that contributes to overall community and economic development objectives.

Better awareness of Chilliwack as a location option.

Increase in number of location and development enquiries.

Supporting Actions

1) Support organizations and marketing partnerships that use the community brand, and that contribute to

diversification in key economic base sectors, including agriculture, tourism and manufacturing.

2) Continue to promote a business-friendly government with cooperative city staff and lower tax rates.

3) Promote the growth potential of Chilliwack by advertising the availability of land, affordable housing,

business-friendly environment, and desirable community attributes.

4) Promote densification, infill and brownfield opportunities to the real estate industry that reduces sprawl,

makes more efficient use of existing infrastructure and preserves agricultural land in conformance to

community expectations.

5) Provide more community amenities such as green space, bike paths, walking trails, hockey rinks, sports

fields, health care facilities, etc. that attract families and professionals to the community.

6) Promote agri-tourism, eco-tourism, and heritage tourism as unique assets of Chilliwack.

7) Continue to expand and innovate within the service sector, given that it accounts for over 85% of the labour

force.



GOAL 2: Enhance and Expand Chilliwack’s Business and Investment Climate

Objective 2A: Strengthen the Local Business Climate

Rationale: The business climate comprises economic, social, regulatory and political elements that collectively influence business activity. The regulatory environment, such as taxation and trade policy, as well as the attitude of government, First Nations and institutions focused on business activity are factors as well. The more critical aspects of business climate include costs (e.g., land, labour, taxes, other inputs, regulatory) and non-cost factors (e.g., quality of life, location, infrastructure, attitudes toward business). At the local level, the flexibility of the development approval process, construction costs, operating costs, access to infrastructure, availability of capital and the quality of the local labour force are important. These issues were consistently mentioned during the consultation process. The extent to which a community’s political and policy environment is seen to support or deter business development is the measure of business climate. Business climate is important because it affects how companies inside and outside the community perceive business and financial risk and as such it will affect investment flows and job-creating activities.

Expected Outcomes:

Continued high ranking in regional benchmarking reports.

Competitive business and development costs.

Broad recognition of Chilliwack as a favourable investment option.

Supporting Actions:

1) Monitor and evaluate bi-annual NAIOP (National Association for Industrial and Office Parks) rankings and

their associated benchmarks in order to maintain Chilliwack’s high rankings in development approval times

and costs.

2) Continue to work closely with CEPCO on streamlining and coordinating the municipal approval process that

encourages business expansion, retention and attraction in priority zones and sector. This would include:

Expediting access to accurate regional information and knowledge;

Assisting with project permitting;

Advising on property and building selection;

Assisting with accessing local goods and services;

Co-ordinating community based business networks; and

Referring service and technical assistance enquiries to appropriate agencies.

3) Investigate the feasibility of incentives for developments that exceed job creation thresholds. Incentives

have already been successfully applied in the City’s Revitalization Tax Exemption and new programs could

be targeted at specific areas or industries. Potential incentives could be applied to a range of fees including

property taxes, permit fees, development cost charges, and strategic land assembly.

4) Maintain tax competitiveness and balance between industrial and residential classes.



5) Identify and amend by-laws that unnecessarily impede new development without generating material

benefits to the community.

6) Consider adopting fast-tracking policies based on sustainability and green building criteria.

Objective 2B: Support the Retention and Expansion of Businesses in the City

Rationale: Most new employment in a community is created by existing businesses and entrepreneurs rather than new businesses moving in. Business retention and expansion recognizes this potential by focusing on enterprises already in the City or region, encouraging them to expand, diversify or enhance their competitiveness. For those businesses still in the planning stages, entrepreneurship development can facilitate access to capital, training, technical assistance and business networks that are critical to start-ups. The payoff for the community is job stability or growth, a stable and expanding local supplier base, greater community income and wealth (particularly if those businesses are trade-oriented) and a more diversified tax base. A stable, healthy and growing business base also contributes to the community’s social and cultural health.

Expected Outcomes:

Employment growth that matches population growth.

Diversification into emerging and expanding sectors.

An active and vibrant local business network.

Supporting Actions:

9) Support the business retention and expansion programs of CEPCO and encourage partnerships with other

key players, including the Chilliwack Agriculture Commission, Downtown Business Improvement

Association, the Chamber of Commerce, Stó:lō First Nations and Community Futures South Fraser

Increase local business retention, create biz incubators.

10) Investigate shared planning and economic development policies with the Stó:lō First Nations. Agreements

could encompass joint land use policies and planning or be focused on referrals to accommodate site

location enquiries from outside the community.

11) Provide research support to CEPCO and industry partners to identify key development issues and establish

ongoing communication with the development sector and major land owners.

12) Maintain and enhance the research and development capacity in agriculture and other major industry.

13) Work with education providers and economic developers to develop local policies to encourage

entrepreneurship. Key policies include:

Increasing the focus on entrepreneurship in the K-12 education system.

Encouraging a culture supportive of entrepreneurship.

Supporting the delivery of entrepreneurship programs among partnering economic development

agencies.



14) Explore the feasibility of a small business incubator with a sector focus such as technology, agriculture or

tourism. An incubator would require the collaboration of economic development agencies and a clear proof-

of-concept.

15) Encourage programs among CEPCO, the Chamber of Commerce and local merchants that target a

reduction in spending leakages to the US, Abbotsford and other communities in the region.

16) Work with CEPCO to investigate the viability of local capital pools, focusing on best practices in other

jurisdictions, clarifying regulatory hurdles and gauging local capacity and interest.

Objective 2C: Support the Attraction of New Businesses and Residents to the Community

Rationale: Chilliwack will need to attract new businesses, entrepreneurs and investment from the private and

public sectors if it is to maintain or increase its employment to population ratio. Regional growth will be a

contributing factor by virtue of Chilliwack’s location in the Lower Mainland and its reasonably priced commercial

and industrial land. But the community should be proactive in targeting industries it believes can complement the

existing economic base and meet other community development goals outlined in this plan. Based on the

feedback received in the focus groups, planning workshop and business survey, the City should be seeking to

attract businesses in tourism, agriculture, manufacturing and knowledge-intensive industry. New retail and

service businesses that contribute to increased capture of household spending would also contribute to overall

community development.

Expected Outcomes:

New head offices or satellites of major companies that match Chilliwack’s strengths and diversify the job

and tax base.

Supporting Actions

1) Identify opportunities for attracting direct and indirect supply industries that support major industry in the

City. The expansion of supply industries lowers business costs of primary production, manufacturing and

construction, reduces the commercial use of roadways and other transportation infrastructure and

contributes to cluster development, including the feasibility of value-added production.

2) Work with Tourism Chilliwack and CEPCO to attract more tourism operators that would expand the product

base, open up packaging opportunities, expand the tourism season, take better advantage of underutilized

assets (such as the Fraser River) and add to Chilliwack’s overall destination appeal.

3) Lobby, promote and facilitate the establishment, attraction and recruitment of public facilities, including but

not limited to transit services, health facilities and education services.



GOAL 3: Continue to Revitalize the Downtown Core

Objective 3A: Encourage Redevelopment that will Attract Anchor Tenants and New Residents

Rationale: A number of distressed properties and vacant buildings exist in the downtown core, which make it

unattractive as the centre of commerce that it once was. There is a strong need for the city to create conditions

that will entice developers to renovate or build new commercial and multifamily residential buildings that will

attract anchor retailers and downtown residents. The City has recognized this need and has established a

Downtown Task Force that has produced a downtown Land Use and Development Plan. It also developed a

design concept for a city block in the downtown core where the City already owns ten lots and made

recommendations for revitalization incentives. The Downtown Chilliwack Business Improvement Association is

also working to improve the downtown core. All parties involved recognize that there is no quick way to address

issues of concern in the downtown core and that the revitalization process is a long term, multi-jurisdictional

initiative.

Expected Outcomes:

Redevelopment of buildings that preserve and/or enhance the character of the downtown.

Attraction of key retailers that will, in turn, attract local customers and tourists.

New residents moving in to multifamily buildings and single family homes in or near the core.

Supporting Actions

1) Restrict high density residential development and mixed commercial-residential developments to the

downtown core so that vacant lands in the downtown core get redeveloped first. It should be noted that this

can be politically sensitive because it requires turning down development proposals elsewhere.

2) Work with community and business groups to make the downtown core more attractive by increasing

human and funding resources for landscaping, small gathering places, and other aesthetic improvements.

3) Provide financial incentives for developers to redevelop properties in the downtown core, and potentially to

landlords to reduce empty storefronts.

4) In key areas of the downtown core, make unused brownfield sites development-ready by demolishing old

buildings that have no heritage conservation values and remediating soils. Encourage non-heritage old

buildings to be “de-constructed” by taking out all the valuable materials and using them in redevelopment

projects or selling the materials to third parties. Building deconstruction firms create local jobs and reduce

waste going to landfill or demolition and construction sites.

5) Create a community development corporation and small business incubator to encourage entrepreneurship

in the downtown core using local sources of finance.

6) Allocate senior City staff resource to oversee implementation of the downtown revitalization plan that

follows from and builds on the Downtown Land Use and Development Plan.

7) Develop a long term funding strategy to support implementation of the downtown revitalization initiatives.



Objective 3B: Make the Downtown a centre of Civic Activity that Attracts Residents and Tourists

Rationale: Run-down areas of the downtown core have created conditions for property crime, drug abuse, and

homelessness that make it undesirable as a community gathering place or tourist destination.

Expected Outcomes:

Net positive perceptions among residents about holding events in the downtown core.

An enhance sense of civic pride about the downtown core.

Improved image and profile of downtown Chilliwack.

Supporting Actions

1) Increase the number of downtown events as has been the recent trend.

2) Develop programs and policies to encourage more activities and events in the downtown core.

3) Develop a marketing program to promote the downtown as a great place to experience for residents and a

good place to invest for investors and developers.

4) Continue assembling land in the downtown block bounded by Young Road, Yale Road, and Princess

Avenue. Concept drawings have been prepared for this block, which include a public urban park

surrounded by an office building and a few residential condominiums with ground floor commercial space

for retail stores and restaurants. The concept also included an outdoor performance area.

5) Encourage the establishment of downtown education facilities. The City already has a good start in this

direction with the recently approved University of Fraser Valley (UFV) business education centre, which will

be located at five corners in the former Bank of Montreal (BMO) building.

6) Continue to work to improve public safety.

7) Promote the heritage character of the downtown through conservation and character design guidelines.

8) Identify, and implement infrastructure (if required), a suitable place for a farmer’s market and encourage the

Chilliwack Farmers market to relocate to the downtown core. A careful plan will need to be developed at an

appropriate scale as previous attempts have not been successful.

9) Identify those areas of the downtown core that are attractive to local residents and regional visitors (e.g. the

intersection of Mill Street and Wellington Street) and work to improve the areas just adjacent them.

10) Continue to advance the City’s current program of assembling commercial properties that can be turned

into future comprehensive mixed use developments.



Objective 3C: Encourage Downtown Residents and Businesses to Share Resources & Collaborate

Rationale: A broad societal trend is emerging throughout the world called “collaborative consumption.” The

general idea, also referred to as the Sharing Economy, is that by sharing or renting underused resources, often

using the new websites to efficiently allocate those resources, people can meet their resource needs at a far

lower cost. Craigslist and EBay are older examples of this trend. New ones include a range of peer-to-peer

lending sites that allow individuals and businesses to rent their own office space, homes, cars, and so on26

Expected Outcomes:

More community-building connections between downtown businesses and/or residents.

Reduced costs for participants.

More efficient use of resources leading to reduced energy consumption and waste.

Supporting Actions

Facilitate a workshop for downtown businesses to explore ways to better collaborate to meet their resource

needs at a lower cost. Topics they could explore include group buying of office supplies, sharing of office,

storage, and /or retail space.

1) Support the development of live/work studios as part of comprehensive neighbourhood planning.

2) Facilitate a community workshop for downtown residents to explore ways in which they could better

collaborate to reduce their costs and building community. This could include tool sharing libraries;

development of websites for peer-to-peer renting of items like ladders, power washers, snow blowers,

canoes, row boats, bicycles, etc.; bulk buying of wholesale groceries.

3) Encourage the development of and/or help to promote a ride-sharing and carpooling website for community

members throughout Chilliwack.

4) Encourage the development of a Craigslist equivalent for Chilliwack – there is a Fraser Valley Craigslist, but

nothing specific to Chilliwack.

5) Create a “co-housing-like" sharing/caring culture and community spirit in the downtown core and adjacent

neighbourhoods.

26 .Examples include: airbnb.com, where people rent out their own homes; Getaround.com where people rent their own cars (not yet available in Canada); renttherunway.com where people rent their own ball gowns or wedding dresses; rentmyparkingspace.com where people rent their parking spaces; liquidspace.com where people can rent out their own extra office space; looosecubes.com where people can rent desks and cubicles in offices; taskrabbit.com where people can hire a local handyman (or woman) that has been peer reviewed.



GOAL 4: Increase Employment Intensity and Density on Commercial and Industrial Land

Objective 4A: Increase the Number of Jobs per unit of Commercial Land and/or Increase the Density of New Commercial Development

Rationale: As discussed in Section 6.5, current demand trends indicate that the City will run out of commercial

land within ten years (give or take a few years depending on how quickly the oversupply of retail space at Eagle

Landing is used up) and industrial land within 12 years. To ensure that the City does not run out of commercial

land over the next 10 years, it will need to increase the FAR of new and existing sites to 0.75 - 1.25. To achieve

this density, Chilliwack will need to promote and produce new forms of commercial development – commercial

development that is more typical in larger centres in and around Metro Vancouver. In general terms, to achieve

this density, built form characteristics include: multi-level commercial and/or office establishments, mixed use

development (commercial at grade, office and/or residential on 2+ stories), or large floor plate commercial built

over structured parking. These built form varieties tend to be developed by a smaller pool of specialized

developers (e.g., mixed use developers are different than large floor plate commercial developers) and

construction costs are higher. Finally, municipal parking requirements coupled with developer / business-driven

parking expectations, means that commercial establishments are heavily constrained on their sites. Strategies

for managing parking will be required to achieve this density. This form of development, however, is very

suitable and a preferred form of development for creating liveable, highly walkable, amenity-rich mixed use

centres.

Expected Outcomes:

Increased number of commercial jobs within the city limits.

Availability of commercial land much farther into the future or greater commercial capacity from existing land further into the future.

A net increase multi-level commercial and/or office establishments, mixed use development and large floor plate commercial built over structured parking.

Supporting Actions:

1) Create awareness in the community and with developers of the issues raised in this study related to

commercial land supply and economic development objectives through focused messaging, outreach and

workshops as part of the OCP review process. Creating a strategy and implementing policies and design

guidelines (per below actions) for maximizing commercial land availability will firstly require awareness of

the issues and, secondly, contributions from a range of stakeholders.

2) Complete a detailed market assessment of commercial land demand to better understand projected future

growth for land demand.

3) Promote growth in the local service sector (vs. retail) to support a transition to more dense commercial

developments. Identify specific types of commercial enterprises that hire more employees per unit of

commercial land (e.g., call centres, offices) and encourage the establishment and growth of those

enterprises.



4) Revise zoning requirements (density, height, parking, etc.) and development permit guidelines to transition

commercial developments towards higher density forms of development with an overall target of 0.75 FSR.

The City could provide guidance on the best higher density forms to create more developer buy-in.

5) Identify locations in the community where focused high density commercial, mixed use development could

be accommodated that also support other community planning objectives such as affordable housing,

active transportation, revitalization, energy conservation, greenhouse gas emissions reductions and

placemaking. The OCP process is the ideal time for assessing and identifying strategic growth areas.

6) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase projects – projects that stand as

beacons by demonstrating the realm of ‘possible’ as it pertains to intensified commercial development.

Strategic partners may also be helpful for co-creating or testing new zoning or development permit

guidelines, financial incentives or other planning and development tools to achieve this objective.

7) Make use of strategically located municipal land assets to develop and showcase preferred forms of mixed

use / commercial developments through partnerships, land disposition and/or Request for Proposal

processes. The assembled site in the downtown core is a good example of this type of leadership.

8) Encourage commercial development in areas that are accessible by non-car travel modes and genuinely

reduce parking space requirements.

9) Provide incentives or establish requirements for developers to create below ground or multi-level parking

facilities.

10) Allow commercial activities on industrial zoned lands where there is underused space that cannot be used

for industrial activities (e.g., vacant upper floor space in an industrial building). As not all types of

commercial activity are appropriate on industrial lands, the City should provide guidance on eligible types of

commercial activity.

Objective 4B: Intensify Existing Commercial Lands

Rationale: Existing commercial lands are developed on average to a density of 0.26 FSR. As Chilliwack grows

and faces growing land constraints, predominant commercial areas that exist today (e.g., Sardis) would benefit

from shifting towards higher density forms of commercial/mixed use development that, in turn, support other

community objectives such as greater walkability, higher transit frequency and affordable housing opportunities.

As these areas change and include a broader range of uses, land will be required for more finely-grained road

networks and/or new park and community spaces which will limit the total development potential. Many

communities have begun intensifying existing commercial sites, using parking lots to support more development

as an example. Intensifying current lands will ultimately reduce the rate of land consumption.

One possible threat relates to conversion of commercial lands. Since demand for residential development is

high and there are many available locations for residential development (e.g., downtown condominiums or view

properties), it is not expected that commercial lands will be converted to exclusively residential. This situation

has already happened in the past.



At Vedder Crossing along Vedder Road, some "prime" commercial parcels were rezoned in the 1990s and

developed as townhouse and apartment projects because the residential market was booming whereas the

commercial market was not. This has resulted in some gaps and inhibited the development of a more cohesive

business district. Those gaps have also limited commercial development largely to strip malls as opposed to

main street, continuous storefront development.

Expected Outcomes:

Higher density commercial lands.

A net reduction in land consumption for new commercial development.

Supporting Actions:

1) Identify strategic areas / lands ideal for intensification and engage land owners to investigate intensification

opportunities. This may require changes to zoning and/or development guidelines to achieve the desired

outcomes.

2) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase intensification projects and/or develop

transition strategies for intensifying existing commercial developments. Strategic partners may also be

helpful for co-creating or testing new zoning or development permit guidelines, financial incentives or other

planning and development tools to achieve this objective.

3) Support intense commercial land development by reviewing and amending bylaws, where necessary, to

reduce limitations on building heights, building site coverage, and floor area ratios.

4) Consider amending parking requirements within bylaws that may limit development potential of sites by

reducing requirements, permitting greater offsite parking, phased implementation of parking, and/or rooftop

and/or underground parking. With respect to onsite traffic, explore allowing vehicle parking, loading and

maneuvering on select public roads to serve industrial users.

5) For large sites, encourage phased developments so as to maximize the long term development potential of

the site over time.

6) For commercial areas located on high value land and/or in close proximity to the downtown core,

encourage growth of small scale businesses by increasing the amount of small lots (through subdivision

and/or revised zoning provisions), supporting increased site coverage (e.g. ‘zero lot line’).

7) Explore possible incentives to encourage commercial intensification, such as:

a. Facilitate / expedite the approval process for reviews of high intensity development.

b. Offer greater development rights for larger sites to encourage land assembly.



Objective 4C: Increase the Number of Jobs per Unit of Industrial Land

Rationale: In 2012, the city had 76 hectares (188 acres) of industrially

assessed land that was deemed available and feasible27 for

development. Assuming historic rates of absorption of 6 hectares (15

acres) per year, Chilliwack has about 12 years of industrial

development capacity remaining. However, this time period should be

viewed as a theoretical maximum. Shortages will be felt much sooner

because of mismatches in land size, location and other factors.

Because demands are also rising for residential and commercial land,

it is unlikely that the amount of industrially zoned land can be

increased. However, industry recognizes there is a looming industrial

land availability crisis in the Lower Mainland. As such, there is

emerging dialogue about the need to intensify industrial lands. Major participants in the dialogue include Metro

Vancouver, UDI, NAIOP, local governments, major developers, etc.

Because industrial development in Chilliwack is generally low density, often driven by a need for parking for work

vehicles or trailers, equipment storage and/or other unique needs related to operations, there may be

opportunities for intensification. Many communities have begun championing higher density forms of industrial

development. Metro Vancouver recently commissioned an analysis of industrial land intensification, which

included a number of recommendations for municipalities (Eric Vance and Associates, 2011). Metro Vancouver

also published a report on best practices for the intensive use of agricultural land (Metro Vancouver, 2012). The

city would benefit from participating in the dialogue to learn about emerging responses to this issue and/or

developing responses that can be shared with others.

Expected Outcomes:

Increased number of industrial jobs within the city limits.

Higher density industrial lands.

A net reduction in land consumption for new industrial development.

Supporting Actions:

1) Create awareness in the community and with developers of the issues raised in this study related to

industrial land supply and economic development objectives through focused messaging, outreach and

workshops as part of the OCP review process. Creating a strategy and implementing policies and design

guidelines (per below actions) for maximizing industrial land availability will firstly require awareness of the

issues and, secondly, contributions from a range of stakeholders.

27 Feasible is defined as land that is either serviced or near services and land that is suitable for this type of development type (e.g. not hillside or ALR land).

Industrial Land Supply is a growing concern throughout the BC Lower Mainland. In response, Metro Vancouver published a discussion paper highlighting issues and research findings, many of which informed actions in this study. “Best Practices for the Intensive Use of Industrial Land” (Oct. 2012) can be found online.



2) Complete a detailed market assessment of industrial land demand to better understand projected future

growth for land demand.

3) Engage local landowners and developer to host a sub-regional discussion about industrial land

intensification and co-create strategies that work for businesses, landowners and municipalities. Similarly,

participate in Lower Mainland dialogues on the same topic. There needs to be close collaboration between

developers and researchers and between the public and private sector

4) Provide strategies for industrial firms to use vertical space more effectively, which can lead to greater

employment intensity.

5) Identify opportunities to create multi-level industrial buildings as was often done 100 years ago.

6) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase projects – projects that stand as

beacons and that demonstrate the realm of ‘possible’. Strategic partners may also be helpful for co-creating

or testing new zoning or development permit guidelines, financial incentives or other planning and

development tools to achieve this objective.

7) Support a transition to higher density forms of industrial developments. This includes encouraging intense

industrial land development by reviewing and amending bylaws, where necessary, to reduce limitations on

building height, building site coverage, and floor area ratios, or reduce excessive building setbacks and

landscaping that effectively reduce building size potential. Also consider permitting greater accessory office

and retail uses that support growth in local employment.

8) Consider amending parking requirements within bylaws that may limit development potential of sites by

reducing requirements, permitting greater offsite parking, phased implementation of parking, and/or rooftop

and/or underground parking. The city might also permit ‘shared’ parking opportunities for multi-tenant or

industrial parks as a means to maximize development potential. With respect to onsite traffic, explore

allowing vehicle parking, loading and maneuvering on select public roads to serve industrial users.

9) For large sites, encourage phased developments so as to maximize the long term development potential of

the site over time.

10) For warehouses, develop development permit guidelines that support greater building heights and

increased use of space efficient automated / racking storage equipment.

11) For industrial areas located on high value land and/or in close proximity to the downtown core, encourage

growth of small scale light industrial users by increasing the amount of small lots (through subdivision

and/or revised zoning provisions), supporting increased site coverage (e.g. ‘zero lot line’) and permitting

multi-level developments (e.g. retail at grade, storage on second level, office eon third level).

12) Explore possible incentives to encourage industrial intensification, such as:

Facilitate / expedite the approval process for reviews of high intensity industrial development.

Offer greater development rights for larger sites to encourage land assembly.

In order to encourage and not deter development, possibly reduce municipal Development Cost Charges (DCCs) for density constructed beyond the typical industrial building density, or charge municipal DCCs based on land area or ground level building floor area only, rather than total building floor area.



13) Promote growth in the industrial sectors with high employment density requirements to support a transition

to denser industrial developments. Identify the types of industrial enterprises that hire more employees per

unit of industrial land (e.g., certain types of manufacturing firms, warehouse logistics firms) and encourage

the establishment and growth of those enterprises.

14) Identify underused industrial lands and encourage the owners to share that space with complementary

parties.

15) Provide incentives for industrial owners to use their lands and buildings more intensively.

16) Attract small scale light industrial firms to Chilliwack as they tend to create more employment per unit of

land and have more flexibility to co-locate with larger industrial firms or to take advantage of small in-fill

areas.

17) Encourage and promote smaller “incubator” industrial subdivisions, The city already has a number of

smaller industrial lot subdivisions in Village West designed for small-to-medium industries. There are also a

few general industrial buildings design-built for small industrial tenants or condominium ownership.

18) Allow industries with a significant workforce that are involved in R&D, engineering, design and/or sales to

locate under the same roof or in close proximity in situations where zone would prohibit this.

19) Pre-zone lands for higher density industrial uses. Currently, all of Village West and Cattermole are industrial

zones, except for those parcels that have been rezoned for highway commercial uses (car dealers, gas

stations and motels) at the request of the property owners/users.

20) Make use of strategically located municipal land assets to develop and showcase preferred forms of

industrial developments through partnerships, land disposition and/or Request for Proposal processes, The

City has one parcel in Village West that might be able to serve this purpose. In the 1990s the City

assembled land and developed the Chilliwack Estate Business Park. CEPCO was formed to recruit

industries and manage the business park. Perhaps the City do that again, this time for a specific industrial

target. This has some political sensitivities because existing industrial park owners may view a city

sponsored new industrial park project as "unfair competition" with a negative impact on the private

industrial parks' market prospects.

21) Identify locations in the community where focused, higher density industrial development (e.g., ‘zero lot

line’) could be accommodated such as near the downtown (e.g., city-serving industrial such as printers,

coffee roasters, uniform cleaning services, etc.). It might be worthwhile to develop a “downtown industrial”

strategy.

22) Identify opportunities to support small lot industrial development that is near urban areas or close to other

major industrial operators (e.g., major manufacturing facility, agriculture) that have low parking, setback

and/or other development constraints.

23) Reduce rear and side yard building setback requirements where there will be no negative impact on

adjacent users. Permit shared driveways with cross easements between two adjacent industrial property

users.



GOAL 5: Contribute to a Learning Economy through Workforce Development

Objective 5A: Assist in Developing and Delivering Training and Education Programs

Rationale: Chilliwack has significant post-secondary education capacity, a labour force with above-average

trade certification and opportunities in emerging sectors that will demand increasingly strong labour market skills.

This will require capacity and effort to train individuals for specific jobs and industries. Training may refer to

post-secondary skill development but it can also include basic skills such as literacy and numeracy that add to

the labour force and reduce the need for government assistance programs. The goal of training programs is to

improve the quality and skill sets of individuals, to place them in jobs, and help businesses find an employee in

line with their needs.

Expected Outcomes:

Greater post-secondary education attainment levels and a higher skill level.

Higher labour force participation rates.

Enhanced labour supply that meets the needs of local employers.

New knowledge economy enterprises and more incubator development projects.

Supporting Actions:

1) Work with service providers and the education sector to support training and education programs in the

following areas:

Technology/knowledge industries.

Self-employment.

Trades.

Health.

Youth.

2) Work with the Chilliwack Agriculture Commission, Investment Agriculture Foundation and agriculture

producers to encourage training and education of young farmers and prospective farmers. The promotion of

agricultural education, careers and business development opportunities will be needed if the sector is to

maintain its contributions to the local economy.

3) Re-energize and promote the Canada Education Park plan. New proposals and ideas are needed beyond

current University of Fraser Valley activities. Advanced education is critical to enhancing the knowledge

economy in Chilliwack.

4) Encourage the development of a University of Fraser Valley downtown campus and other downtown

educational institutions.



Objective 5B: Create a Learning Community

Rationale: If Chilliwack is to make the transition to a modern, knowledge-based economy, it will need to create

an environment that is attractive to skilled workers and their families. In addition to attractive job opportunities,

quality of life factors, including environmental quality, sustainability ethic, availability of quality education

institutions, public safety and health care system play a role attracting and keeping a skilled workforce.

Chilliwack already has a number of Learning Community / Knowledge Economy assets. These include the UFV,

Canada Education Park (which includes the BC Justice Institute, RCMP's national training centre, and

land/buildings/concept in support of industrial research and development.

Expected Outcomes:

Development of public infrastructure that encourages learning, including expansion of the UFV campus and

programs.

Recognition as a community that values technology and knowledge-led development.

Increased support for "Learning Enterprises".

Supporting Actions:

1) Prioritize the attraction of new residents that complement the community’s growth objectives, including

families, young professionals and skilled workers.

2) Provide support and capitalize on UFV’s trades and technology facility. This could include establishing new

relationships and creating joint initiatives to support small enterprise and business development activity.

3) Work with UFV on attracting and accommodating students from outside the region, including international

students. Encourage marketing partnerships between CEPCO, Tourism Chilliwack and UFV that promote

community living.

4) Encourage the use of immigrant worker and entrepreneur programs that match the needs of the

community. Leverage federal and provincial programs by working with local companies who are unable to

satisfy their labour requirements in the domestic labour market. This requires oversea promotion and

search for the right partners, and could start with the larger sources of Canadian immigrants. BC already

has a significant "international student" secondary school education "enterprise". A similar opportunity may

also exist for a university that caters to the immigrants or potential immigrants from these countries, or

Canadians that intend to do business in these countries.

5) Maintain or enhance community services that improve living conditions and local quality of life. Issues

identified during the consultation program included providing a safe community with adequate health

services, addressing the decline in provincial social services and partnering and supporting NGOs and

charities to fill service gaps.



6) Encourage inter-generational learning and living by engaging youth and seniors in integrated lifestyle living

(village environments). Inter-generational learning is meant to address the progressive ageing of the

population and the growing gap between generations as a result of new technologies. Seniors are provided

with opportunities to remain active in society and at the same time strengthen their contribution to the

learning of younger generations. This can be accomplished through the application of new forms of

information and communications technology (e.g. social networking, new media) that connects generations.

7) Prioritize amenity and infrastructure development, especially in downtown, that will increase the appeal of

knowledge-based development and clustering. A research and educational precinct in cooperation with

UFV and business incubation capacity were suggestions made during the community consultation process.

8) Investigate the feasibility of designating Chilliwack as a Smart City. A smart city is one that leverages

knowledge communication, social and environmental capital with traditional forms of infrastructure to

optimize competitiveness and economic development. The European Union defines smart cities according

to six characteristics, economy, people, governance, mobility, environment and living (TUDelft 2007).

Creating an environment of innovation, prosperity and growth based on a smart city infrastructure would

position the City as an attractive investment alternative. The Smart City designation was developed by the

Intelligent Community Forum. Each year 21 cities are designated. Eighteen Canadian cities have received

the designation but only one from BC (Vancouver).



GOAL 6: Foster a Caring Community

Objective 6A: Assist in Developing and Delivering Training and Entrepreneurship Programs

Rationale: Many of the participants talked about their desire for Chilliwack to be a caring community that

ensures that all community members can take advantage of economic prospects.

Expected Outcomes:

Greater economic opportunities for residents of all incomes classes not just those who are more well off.

Reduced demand for costly services to meet the needs of disadvantaged residents.

Supporting Actions:

1) Provide entrepreneurship programs for low income individuals, especially youth, combined with micro-loans

and mentor support to identify and pursue self-employment opportunities. Chilliwack used to have a

Community Futures program funded by the Human Resources Development Canada but it was

discontinued. It would be worthwhile to explore if this program could be revived.

2) Create a small business incubation program for local residents combined with local sources of financing

and business assistance.

3) Identify green jobs suitable to low income or disadvantaged individuals (e.g., commercial garden weeding

and harvesting, building deconstruction, waste and recyclables collection on bicycles, home

weather-stripping and insulation services).

4) Encourage entry level job skills and training programs. A potential partnership could be developed with

Chilliwack Community Services to provide basic/life skill training, job search, completion of high school

education / trade training courses. Such a partnership would create connections with underprivileged youth

and young families.

5) Create a job skills bank to match local employer needs with available worker skills.

6) Collaborate with local educational institutions to identify training and education opportunities targeted to low

income and disadvantaged individuals.

7) Encourage the development of for-profit and non-profit enterprises that are structured around cooperative

ownership/employee ownership models as these can result in greater financial security for employees/co-

owners. Explore potential connections with the local artist, cultural, entertainment and artisan groups.

8) Encourage the development of local artisans, who will enrich the cultural fabric of the community and create

self-employment opportunities.



Objective 6B: Better Integrate Youth into the Work Force and Community Life

Rationale: Youth often face difficulties in accessing job opportunities. A number of community members cited

the importance of better engaging with the City and making them feel more part of the community.

Expected Outcomes:

Greater economic opportunities for youth.

Greater community involvement by youth.

Reduced crime and social problems that can arise when youth are out on the streets without a job.

Supporting Actions:

1) Establish programs to engage with youth on an ongoing basis to better determine their needs and to

encourage their direct involvement in the community. Create partnerships with Chilliwack Community

Services and other youth NGO groups (e.g. YMCA/YWCA).

2) Work with youth programs such as big brothers, big sisters, and boys and girls clubs to make them aware

of job skills training and apprenticeship opportunities available for youth.

3) Actively seek to attract young professionals that have just completed their training in high demand fields.

4) Match training needs with training courses for young people.

5) Organize job banks and job fairs for young people.

6) Create more opportunities for youth to become involved in community decision-making by actively

encouraging their involvement on community boards of directors.



GOAL 7: Improve Transportation Infrastructure for Employees and Visitors

Objective 7A: Improve Employee Commuting Options

Rationale: A number of Chilliwack business people indicated that the lack of public transportation infrastructure

has a significant negative impact on the ability of companies to attract qualified employees who do not have

access to a car. Others indicated that it is difficult for their employees to upgrade their skills and education

because they cannot easily get to educational institutions, particularly those outside the City.

Expected Outcomes:

Improved access to qualified employees that do not have access to a car for daily use.

Better ability to provide necessary training and education for employees.

Supporting Actions:

1) Allocate a bigger portion of the municipal budget to providing more extensive and frequent public transit

options within the city, particularly for students. This will likely result in an increase in municipal taxes,

which could be met with opposition unless it can be demonstrated that the increased transit will reduce

resident costs from car use, taxi rides, car rental, etc. The city has plans to spend $250,000 per year to buy

new buses or improve transit each year from 203 to 2018. The City of Chilliwack currently spends 17% of

its total tax revenues on transportation.

2) Coordinate actions that complement and reinforce BC Transit’s Transit Future Plan Chilliwack Area,

specifically in the following areas:

Integrating community transportation infrastructure plans and projects into the Transit Future network.

Consider travel demand management practices (e.g. increasing parking fares, reducing parking

availability) in areas well served by transit.

Continue to focus high density and mixed use development in areas well served by transit.

Work with Transit BC to explore new funding systems for transit services in the community.

3) Promote the use of electric bikes and scooters as a cheap alternative to cars that can often allow riders to

reach their destination almost as quickly as by car by using a combination of bike paths and roads.

4) Facilitate the development of more mixed use neighbourhoods where employees are able to live within

walking or biking distance of their place of employment.



Objective 7B: Improve Transportation Infrastructure for Visitors

Rationale: It is difficult for visitors without a private car to come to Chilliwack. This constrains the number of

visitors that might otherwise travel to Chilliwack. Better transportation options could increase number of regional

and international visitors to Chilliwack. We note that this is a challenge throughout the Fraser Valley, which was

discussed in a strategic review of transit options in the Fraser Valley (Urban Systems, 2009) as well as a Transit

Future Plan – Chilliwack Area (BC Transit, 2012). Short term plans are to establish a network transit line with 20

minute frequency along Yale-Vedder, which will directly connect downtown, Sardis, and South Chilliwack as well

as a re-alignment of local routes.

Expected Outcomes:

Increased tourism revenues.

Enhanced brand recognition of Chilliwack as a tourism destination.

Supporting Actions:

1) Encourage the appropriate regional transit committees to expand shuttle bus services from Vancouver

and/or Surrey to Chilliwack.

2) Similarly encourage expansion of shuttle services to/from the Abbotsford airport.

3) Assess the feasibility of creating a charter water taxi service to Chilliwack from communities to the west.

This could be structured as a tourism activity in its own right.

Objective 7C: Improve Road Infrastructure for Commercial Vehicles

Rationale: Increasing levels of congestion by passenger vehicles cause commercial vehicles carrying cargo to

take longer and use more fuel to reach their destinations. Further, during the winter, business owners reported

that the road clearing does not happen very frequently except on the hillside streets were street clearing is a

priority for safety reasons.

Expected Outcomes:

Reduced travel times and lower costs for commercial vehicles.

More reliable supply chains and distribution delivery times to Chilliwack businesses that import or export goods.

Supporting Actions:

1) Implement recommendations of the recent snow removal policy review conducted by the City.

2) Provide more options for residents to use non-private car modes (e.g. shuttles, buses, cycling, carpooling)

for travel within the City.



GOAL 8: Become a Model Community in Advancing the Green Economy

Objective 8A: Conduct Business Activities in an Environmentally Responsible Manner

Rationale: Community members repeatedly indicated their desire to achieve a high standard of environmental

performance. Many spoke of their desire to pursue business activities that did not have an adverse effect on the

environment. This was particularly true for the agriculture and tourism sectors.

Expected Outcomes:

Reduced environmental impacts from business activities.

A cleaner environment for residents and visitors to enjoy.

Supporting Actions:

1) Support and encourage the agriculture sector in developing and implementing eco-friendly agricultural

practices. Also support and encourage the agriculture sector to improve land use on agricultural lands.

This is an action where support may be needed from senior levels of government to help farmers invest in

and adopt new environmental technologies.

2) Implement the environmental components of the Agriculture Area Plan.

3) Encourage Chilliwack businesses to participate in programs to reduce their carbon footprint and

environmental impacts.

4) Collaborate with the manufacturing association of BC to develop environmental programs for their members

in Chilliwack.

5) Provide leadership by taking measures to track and reduce the environmental impact of its own operations

at the City.



Objective 8B: Pursue Green Business Opportunities

Rationale: Chilliwack is situated in a lush valley with important natural assets that create the foundation to attract visitors and residents that are eco-minded. An opportunity exists for Chilliwack to build on and capitalize on these attributes. This goes hand in hand with the "brand building" process proposed early in the report.

We note that some of the proposed actions below represent a new direction for the City and require political

commitment by the Council through overarching sustainable development/climate change strategies.

Expected Outcomes:

Improved reputation as a “green” city.

New jobs in environmentally-friendly businesses.

Reduced energy use, water use, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and waste generation.

Supporting Actions:

1) Market the outdoor recreation opportunities associated with a green lifestyle such as fishing, hiking,

mountain climbing, biking and gardening.

2) Explore opportunities to enhance access to the Fraser River and to develop low impact recreational

activities along the river (e.g., bicycle paths, walking trails, canoe/kayak launch/staging areas, bird

watching). Create a riverfront park to further enhance this area and make it a tourist destination.

3) Provide encouragement and support to green businesses that are involved in energy retrofits, building

deconstruction, organic agriculture, water conservation, recycling, green roof construction, eco-tourism, and

so on.

4) Provide infrastructure support to expand the use of green technologies, such as district energy systems,

solar hot water heating, photovoltaic panels, drainwater heat recovery, and so on.



8.0 CLOSURE We trust that the information contained in this report meets your present requirements. Please contact us if you

have any questions or concerns regarding the above.

Yours very truly,

GOLDER ASSOCIATES LTD.

Aaron Licker, B.A., Adv. Dipl. Tech. GIS David J. Reid, B.L.A., BCSLA, FCSLA GIS Specialist Principal, Environmental Planning and Design Practice Leader

DR/AL/eb

This report was originally written by Peter Russell and David Van Seters on April 22, 2013 and subsequently

edited by David Reid on September 10, 2013.

Golder, Golder Associates and the GA globe design are trademarks of Golder Associates Corporation.

n:\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-006-r-rev1 09sep_13\1214410139-006-r-rev1-economic and employment prospects 10sep_13.docx


September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2

REFERENCES BC Stats. 2012a. Population Estimates. Available at:

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationEstimates.aspx. Accessed: October 25, 2012.

BC Stats. 2012b. Population Projections - P.E.O.P.L.E 2012 by Total Population for Chilliwack LHA. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationProjections.aspx Accessed: October 25, 2012.

BC Stats. 2012c. Sub-Provincial Population Projections – P.E.O.P.L.E 2012 by 5 year Age Groups for Chilliwack LHA and British Columbia. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationProjections.aspx Accessed: October 31, 2012

BC Stats 2012d. Labour Force Activity by Selected BC Cities – Annual Averages.

BC Stats 2012e. British Columbia Building Permits for Development Regions, Regional Districts, and Communities, by Type 2003 – 2011, 2012 Y-t-D. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Search/DataReleases.aspx. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

BC Stats. 2011a. British Columbia Regional District and Municipal Population Estimates 2006 to 2011. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationEstimates.aspx. Accessed: October 25, 2012.

BC Stats. 2011b. 2009 Neighbourhood Income and Demographics. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2011c. 2009 Neighbourhood Income and Demographics. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2010. 2008 Neighbourhood Income and Demographics. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2009a. British Columbia Regional District and Municipal Population Estimates 1996 to 2006. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationEstimates.aspx. Accessed: October 25, 2012.

BC Stats. 2009b. 2007 Neighbourhood Income and Demographics. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.





BC Stats. 2006a. Neighbourhood Income and Demographics, 2004. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2006b. 2006 Community Profiles (Chilliwack City). Available at http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-591/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=5909020&Geo2=PR&Code2=59&Data=Count&SearchText=chilliwack&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom=. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

BC Stats. 2005. Neighbourhood Income and Demographics, 2003 Tax Year. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2004a. Neighbourhood Income and Demographics, 2002 Tax Year. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Stats. 2004b. Neighbourhood Income and Demographics, 2001 Tax Year. Available at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/IncomeTaxation.aspx Accessed: November 10, 2012.

BC Transit. May, 2012. Transit Future Plan – Chilliwack Area. Available at:

http://www.bctransit.com/transitfuture/pdf/CHW_2570_TF_ExecSummary_053012_mo.pdf. Accessed. February 15, 2013.

Chilliwack Economic Partners. 2012. Chilliwack, BC Offers Business A World of Advantages. Available at: http://www.chilliwackeconomicpartners.com/. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation. 2010. Tourism. Available at: http://www.chilliwackeconomicpartners.com/tourism/. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 2012a. Chilliwack – Population and Household Projections. Last Updated March 14, 2012 and July 17, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 2012b. Official Community Plan Review Backgrounder – Growth Context. September 27, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 2012c. Official Community Plan Review Backgrounder – Backgrounder No. 2 – Land Use. October 11, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 2012d. Business Licence Floor Space Data (Business License 2011- Floor Space by SIC and TZ - Citywide (2).xlsx). Unpublished database on file at the City of Chilliwack. Chilliwack, BC.

City of Chilliwack. 2012e. Land Development Data (Land - Development Type data June 18 2012.xlsx). Unpublished database on file at the City of Chilliwack. Chilliwack, BC.



City of Chilliwack. 2012f. Population. Available at: http://www.chilliwack.com/main/page.cfm?id=87. Accessed October 26, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 2011a. Downtown Core Task Force Final Report. Available at: http://www.chilliwackdowntownplan.ca/_docs/Downtown%20Task%20Force%20Report.pdf. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

City of Chilliwack. 1998. Official Community Plan – 1998. Available at: http://www.chilliwack.ca/main/attachments/files/774/OCP%20for%20Web%20Page.pdf. Accessed: November 9, 2012.

Delft University of Technology (TUDelft). 2007. Smart cities Ranking of European medium-sized cities. Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies.

Don Cameron and Associates. 2012. City of Chilliwack Agriculture Area Plan Available at: http://www.chilliwack.ca/main/page.cfm?id=1979 Accessed: November 9, 2012.

Eric Vance and Associates. May, 2011, Industrial Land Intensification Analysis, Prepared for Metro Vancouver

Main Street Communications Ltd. June, 2011. Chilliwack Healthier Community Strategic Action Plan: Goals, Objectives, Proposals for Action.

Metro Vancouver, October, 2012. Best Practices for the Intensive Use of Industrial Land. Discussion Paper

Moutut. N; Watson, K; and Chilliwack Social Research and Planning Council. 2009. Age Friendly and Quality of Life 2008. Available at: http://www.chilliwack.ca/main/page.cfm?id=1619 Accessed November 9, 2012.City of Chilliwack. 2012. Population. Available at: http://www.chilliwack.com/main/page.cfm?id=87. Accessed October 26, 2012.

NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association. 2012. 13th Annual Regional Office Development Cost Summary. Vancouver Chapter. Vancouver, BC.

Statistics Canada. 2006. Women in Canada: A Gender-Based Statistical Report, 5th Edition. Target Group Project: Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division.

Statistics Canada. 2012. December 2011 Location Counts for Chilliwack CA, Industry Groups and Employment Size Ranges.



Urban Systems 2009. Strategic Review of Transit in the Fraser Valley. Foundation Paper #3.

Van Wyk, Anita and Van Wyk, Ron. January 2011. Affordable Housing and the Social Economy in the Fraser Valley Regional District. Prepared on behalf of the BC Alberta Social Economy Research Alliance.

Wilkinson, Richard March 2009. The Spirit Level. Why equality is better for everyone. Penguin Books.


January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 1/5

Table A-1: Industrial Establishments by Major Industrial Group, 1992 and 2011A1

Industry Group 1992 2011 Annual Growth Rate

Ab

ove

A

vera

ge

Manufacturing - metal/machinery/transportation equipment/electrical/non-metal products

22 54 4.8%

Construction and trade 43 98 4.4%

Manufacturing - wood and related products 28 60 4.1%

Manufacturing - chemical and allied products - 6 3.8%a

All industries 202 374 3.3%

Bel

ow

Ave

rag

e

Manufacturing - food/beverage 23 38 2.7%

Wholesale (petro/foods/drugs/building material-hardware-plumbing/machinery, etc.)

33 52 2.4%

Transport/storage/communications 36 48 1.5%

Agriculture 13 15 0.8%

Forestry 3 1 -5.6%

Mining and quarrying 1 - -100.0%

Utilities - 1 N/A

Personal service (industrial scale) - 1 N/A

Note:

A growth rate calculated from 2000 base year

N/A - not applicable

A1 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).



Table A-2: Commercial Establishments by Major Industrial GroupA2

Industry Group 1992 2011

1992 - 2011 Annual Growth Rate

Ab

ove

Ave

rag

e

Other financial intermediaries 0 3 14.7% a

Membership organizations 1 6 9.9%

General merchandize, retail 26 54 3.9%

Educational services 4 8 3.7%

Business services 68 133 3.6%

Amusement & recreation services 30 56 3.3%

Health & social services 104 189 3.2%

Personal & household services 80 137 2.9%

Food & beverage services 111 171 2.3%

Investment intermediaries 6 9 2.2%

Food, beverage & drugs, retail 49 74 2.2%

All Industries 1,152 1,542 1.5%

Bel

ow

Ave

rag

e

Non-store retail 10 12 1.0%

Banks & similar institutions 14 17 1.0%

Motor vehicles, part and accessories 154 184 0.9%

Real estate operators 147 172 0.8%

Shoes, clothes & fabrics, retail 46 51 0.5%

Federal government services - - 0.0%

Provincial government services - - 0.0%

Consumer & business financing 0 2 0.0%a

Accommodation services (rooms) 27 26 -0.2%

Other retail stores 139 132 -0.3%

Services incidental to agriculture (veterinarians only) 13 12 -0.4%

Other service industries 41 36 -0.7%

Household furniture & appliances, retail 43 35 -1.1%

Insurance companies 21 15 -1.8%

Real estate agents 18 7 -4.8%

Lumber & building materials (only big box mixed retail) 0 1 N/A

Notes:





Table A-3: Industrial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial GroupA3

Industry Group 1992 2011 Annual Growth Rate

Ab

ove

A

vera

ge

Manufacturing - chemical and allied products - 7,813 9.2%a

Manufacturing - metal/machinery/transportation equipment/electrical/non-metal products

13,551 50,090 7.1%

Transport/storage/communications 14,713 50,418 6.7%

Construction and trade 4,903 12,310 5.0%

All industries 120,043 230,708 3.5%

Bel

ow

Ave

rag

e

Manufacturing - wood and related products 29,200 44,444 2.2%

Wholesale (petro/foods/drugs/building material-hardware-plumbing/machinery, etc.)

22,903 33,534 2.0%

Agriculture 3,943 5,130 1.4%

Personal service (industrial scale) - 232 0.0%a

Utilities - - 0.0%

Manufacturing - food/beverage 30,442 26,570 -0.7%

Forestry 288 167 -2.8%

Mining and quarrying 100 - -100.0%

Note:





Table A-4: Commercial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial GroupA4

Industry Group 1992 2011

1992 - 2011 Annual Growth Rate

Ab

ove

Ave

rag

e

Real estate operators 290 4,131 15.0%

Business services 6,188 23,046 7.2%

Investment intermediaries 434 1,570 7.0%

Non-store retail 689 2,209 6.3%

Food, beverage & drugs, retail 24,488 53,075 4.2%

Motor vehicles, part and accessories 42,501 90,884 4.1%

Health & social services 10,219 20,598 3.8%

Amusement & recreation services 12,018 21,106 3.0%

All Commercial Floor Space m2 (excluding hotels/motels) 224,368 396,621 3.0%

Bel

ow

Ave

rag

e

Educational services 808 1,316 2.6%

General merchandize, retail 32,275 48,860 2.2%

Shoes, clothes & fabrics, retail 9,790 14,740 2.2%

Personal & household services 7,094 10,568 2.1%

Food & beverage services 21,556 31,053 1.9%

Membership organizations - 1,270 1.7% a

Other retail stores 21,305 29,096 1.7%

Banks & similar institutions 7,015 9,321 1.5%

Lumber & building materials (only big box mixed retail) - 9,324 1.4%a

Insurance companies 2,021 2,353 0.8%

Federal government services - - 0.0%

Provincial government services - - 0.0%

Other service industries 4,607 4,628 0.0%

Consumer & business financing - 242 0.0%b

Household furniture & appliances, retail 13,988 12,974 -0.4%

Other financial intermediaries - 212 -0.7% b

Accommodation services (rooms) - 785 -0.8% a

Real estate agents 3,139 2,050 -2.2%

Services incidental to agriculture (veterinarians only) 3,943 1,996 -3.5%

Notes:


B growth rate calculated from 2003 base year




Table A-5: Industrial and Commercial Land by Neighbourhood, 2012A5

Neighbourhood/ Traffic Zone

Industrial Commercial Total

Ha % of Total

Ha % of Total

Ha % of Total

Chilliwack Proper (including Little Mountain)

35.7 16.9% 83.8 35.0% 119.5 27.0%

Sardis-Vedder (corridor including First Nation Reserves)

2.7 1.3% 76.9 32.1% 79.5 18.0%

Promontory (TZ 26) 5.9 2.8% 0.0 0.7% 5.9 1.3%

Chilliwack Mountain (TZ 35A)

0.0 0.0% 0.0 2.4% 0.0 0.0%

Ryder Lake (TZ 30)

0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.3% 0.0 0.0%

Eastern Hillsides 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%

Rosedale-East Chilliwack North side 3.4 1.6% 5.1 2.1% 8.5 1.9%

East Chilliwack Southside 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%

Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow 79.8 37.8% 14.1 5.9% 93.9 21.2%

Village West (including Eagle Landing Shopping Centre)

83.8 39.7% 51.4 21.5% 135.2 30.5%

Total 211.2 100.0% 239.3 100.0% 442.4 100.0%

y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-revb 02jan_13\components\appendix a - business license data tables.docx

A5 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012e).



APPENDIX B Spatial Allocation of Employment by Broad Sector



Stan Rogers, Legacy Pacific Group of Companies

Kevin Gimmell, Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce

Amber Short, Tourism Chilliwack

Brian Coombes, Tourism Chilliwack

James Donaldson, Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation

Netty Tam, Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation

Brian Minter, Minter Gardens

Leonard Wiens, Comfort Inn

Ken Falk, Fraser Valley Duck & Goose

Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce

Barb Kemp, Downtown Business Improvement Association

Stó:lō First Nation

John English, University of the Fraser Valley

Terry Wilkins, Assistant Manager, Chilliwack Airport

y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-rev1 05mar_13\components\appendix c - key list of informants.docx



The general idea behind scenario planning

is that because we do not know exactly

how the future will unfold, it is useful to

consider a number of plausible future

scenarios and choose a course of action

that will work well across several possible

futures. Each scenario is presented as a

specially constructed story about a

possible future that is distinctly different

from the other scenarios yet represents a

realistic possible future that we may one

day experience.

After considering a number of different

scenarios developed for future-based

strategic planning, we adapted the

following scenarios from a set that were

developed by a team of researchers at the

University of Sussex in the UK. We made them relevant to the Chilliwack context based on interviews with a

number of Chilliwack community members. These scenarios, shown in Figure D-1, describe what the world

might be like in 25 years.

Figure D-1 shows the four scenarios in relation to two responses to the drivers of change. The first response

centres on social values on the horizontal axis, ranging from individualistic values to more community oriented

values. The second along the vertical axis indicates social and political priorities and patterns of economic

activity that result from them. It ranges from autonomy at the regional level to interdependence with more global

institutions (e.g., World Bank). Each of the four scenarios occupies a quadrant created by the combination of

these two responses. The four scenarios are described at the world scale and in relation to Chilliwack on the

following pages. Participants were asked to identify the implications of each scenario and then identify

appropriate responses.

Figure D-1: Scenario Planning Model.



Scenario 1: World Markets (Interdependent/Individualistic)

Cities, Regions or Countries that typify this scenario:

The United States

The Cayman Islands

Calgary

Economic Trends

Strong economic growth

Shift from traditional industries toward services

Financial services and tourism expand

Unemployment is medium to low, job security declines

Low paying service jobs rise

Social/demographic Trends

Middle class shrinks as income inequity rises

Average incomes increase

Personal debt increases

Diet-related illnesses rise

Environmental Trends

CO2 levels rise and severe weather events increase

Biodiversity declines

Natural resource shortages increase, which raises food and commodity prices

Technological Trends

Rapid technological innovation

Media and information technologies expand

Biotechnology and nanotechnology expands

Renewable energy expands modestly

Political/Governance Trends

Government shrinks

Minimal government policy except to enable markets

The Global Context: People are focused on improving their own lives through material wealth with less concern for the effect this might have on others and the environment. Business and government are focused on economic growth and developing global markets through free enterprise approaches. A few global firms/brands dominate many sectors. Internationally co-ordinated policy sets framework conditions for the efficient functioning of markets. People believe that technology will solve the problems.

Pressure is high to reduce taxes, regulations, social services and the size of government. Private property rights are enshrined in law and strongly enforced. There is more international coordination in the areas of trade and security and the three countries of North America share a common currency. The wealth gap between the rich and poor continues to grow.

New technologies are rapidly adopted and growth is concentrated in health, leisure, financial, IT and media services. Biotechnology transforms the health and food industries. Electronic network technologies revolutionize the growing service sector. Traditional manufacturing declines as it is taken up by newly industrialized countries (Brazil, China, India). The construction industry expands.

Jobs become less secure and people change jobs more often. Tele-work expands as does social exclusion from the digital economy

The Chilliwack Context: Tourism expands as more international visitors come to enjoy the natural assets around Chilliwack. The number of construction jobs increases and many more cargo shipments to Asia pass through the city. The Chilliwack airport receives more passengers each year.

Wealth and poverty both become more visible as the gap between the wealthy and poor increases. More people lock their doors as petty crimes increase. People find it increasingly difficult to get loans because of their high debt levels. More big box retailers set up along the highway and traffic congestion increases dramatically.

There are increasing cries to move more land out of the Agricultural Land Reserve to increase economic growth. High-tech vertical cropping greenhouse businesses are established. Weather events become more severe and the number of forest fires and floods increases. There is a marked increase in crop losses and animal culls due to avian flu-type viruses, insects and blights.



Summary of implications and responses from participants regarding Scenario 1

BUSINESS

Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses

o Export sector expands. o Transportation increases. o Farming sector expands; more specialized local food

products like blueberries and corn, etc. o Transnationals and individual pursuits move in,

everyone for themselves. o Rising environmental impacts dictates greater need to

produce more with less carbon imprint.

o Expand local government support. o Increase value added product development. o Improve branding. o Develop clusters with special interest groups. o Increase agriculture production. o Develop new technology to increase production. o Become leaders in creative industries. o Use more creative production methods.

PLACE


o Tourism expands - Chilliwack becomes outdoor value destination.

o Transit infrastructure remains poor/lacking. o Land use by economic use rather than gov't planning. o Fragmentation of community.

o Expand tourism marketing. o Improve infrastructure to handle increased visitation. o Expand bike routes, alternate modes of

transportation. o Provide more small buses to address poor transit. o Create a well-defined land use plan.

PEOPLE


o Reduction in government provided social services. o Reduction in safety net by government. o Less support for charities, non-government support. o Increased gaming revenues, with more money

recycled. o Increased gap in incomes between rich and poor. o Increased immigration for lower paying jobs. o Fewer people in the middle class. o More jobs created, more educational training provided. o More lower paying jobs. o Social needs rise for older, lower income, and disabled

people.

o Empower non gov't agencies, charities to take up the slack in provided social services.

o Initiate education programs for people to generate self-employment.

o Provide more training for special health needs. o Address the expanded infrastructure need. o Address the decline in social services.

SUSTAINABILITY


o More intense land use. o Rising competing interests for lands. o Continued aging population. o Reduced agricultural land base to increase economic

growth. o Reliance on technology to increase efficiency. o Pressure to maintain agricultural land without pollution.

o Densify with environmental techniques (e.g., green buildings).

o Develop a well-defined land use strategy. o Provide training and education to accommodate the

advancement in technology.



Scenario 2: National Governance (Autonomy/Individualistic)


Canada, 30 years ago

Quebec in some aspects

At the extreme, Cuba

Economic Trends

Modest economic growth

Stable, protectionist economy

National defence expands

Small and medium sized enterprises expand

Unemployment rises, job security declines


Social values are individualistic/nationalist

People become more patriotic and support for arts and culture rises

Pension benefits declines as labour force shrinks

Income inequality rises


CO2 levels rise and severe weather events increase

Water exports are restricted.


Low technol. innovation

Domestic energy sources are emphasized, with more investment in renewables


Government is reactive and closed

Government regulates to protect key sectors

The Global Context: People value individual freedoms but within the context

of independent countries that strongly protect their national industries

(utilities, telecommunications, media). In Canada, business is focused more

on domestic markets and the US with a decrease in international trade.

Citizens are proudly patriotic but continue to believe the value of free markets

and private enterprise. Separatist movements in Quebec arise in Ontario,

Alberta, and BC.

Political power is strong at the federal level and Canada keeps the US more

at arm’s length by increasing border restrictions and negotiating stronger

trade agreements on energy, agriculture, and consumer goods. While market

values remain strong, national policies limit foreign ownership, investment,

and trade which dampen economic growth. Restraints on competition also

reduce technological innovation, which has a negative economic impact.

Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that serve domestic markets

expand while the construction industry declines due to a decrease in

investment in housing and infrastructure.

Food prices stop rising because of national subsidies on agriculture and

market controls. The job market remains strong for lower skilled domestic

workers and those involved in agriculture and retail.

The Chilliwack Context: Chilliwack becomes a quieter place with fewer

international visitors and a slower growing resident population. Housing starts

taper off and housing prices decline. Rail workers are laid off as declining

international trade reduces the volume of freight. Employment gradually shifts

back to primary industries such as forestry, and mining.

Regional and Canadian businesses expand modestly as restrictions on

foreign imports and trade opens up markets for local firms. International

stores are replaced by Canadian/regional ones that sell mostly Canadian

goods. Residents make more frequent trips to big box food stores in Metro

Vancouver but fewer trips to the US because duty free spending limits are

decreased. Local food processors experience increased local demand.

Tourism declines, relying primarily on regional visitors from BC and Alberta.

Food prices become more stable and import restrictions on fruit and

vegetables from the US causes wood biomass-powered greenhouses to

become economically viable and more prevalent in Chilliwack. Carbon

emissions decline modestly as international trade declines.




BUSINESS


o Decrease in employment. o Less foreign income and investments. o Decline in tourism. o Stagnation of real estate / construction. o More agriculture processing. o Harder to attract capital for growth. o Retail pricing becomes more competitive.

o Promoting local producers, marketing to larger communities.

o Expand trades training for youth, technology Centre. o Market to those wishing to relax in a more rural

environment with outdoor tourism / recreation. o Upgrade infrastructure. o Find more land in industrial areas. o Increase local business retention, create biz

incubators. o Provide more business development assistance. o Re-develop brownfield sites. o Increase local investment from local capital pools.

PLACE


o Less development. o Valuable agricultural land is abused/taken out of

agricultural land reserve (ALR). o Densification of housing. o More agriculture processing plants. o Increase demand for industrial land.

o Encourage construction o Embrace technology for agricultural development. o Market Chilliwack to outside communities. o Protect soil based agriculture activity. o Improve infrastructure - water services, etc.

PEOPLE


o More people become marginalized. o Food expenses increase. o Lack of resources for community services, e.g.,

hospitals. o Low skilled community. o Young people leave/don't see opportunity. o More people needed to work the land. o Slow down in residential population. o No sense of heritage.

o Encourage education. o Attract young professionals. o Find ways to produce more efficiently. o Develop destination tourism activities. o Put a priority on promoting things to do. o Focus on youth training and education - match skills

to labour market.

SUSTAINABILITY


o Increased focus on basic needs. o Incomes are lower, people have less purchasing

power. o Where will people live? o Social services and health care decline and are

provided more at the household level. o Creative enterprises decline / stagnate.

o Market to other communities. o Focus on higher densification, suites and lane

housing, encouraging construction. o Attract external professionals. o Encourage artisans.



Scenario 3: Global Responsibility (Interdependent/Community-Minded)

Cities, Regions, Countries

that typify this scenario:

The Scandinavian countries

Brussels in some aspects

Economic Trends

Modest economic growth

Shift toward services

Services expand, material consumption declines

Unemployment is low

Int’l job market expands


Income equity improves

Average incomes increase

People work fewer hours


CO2 levels declines with efforts to minimize environmental impacts

Strong support for environmental protection

Global treaties on climate, biodiversity emerge


Rapid tech. innovation

Fossil fuel and traditional manufacturing declines

Renewable energy expands

Political/Governance Trend

International government structures proliferate

Strong government policy, especially social and env.

”Sin” taxes and wealth taxes rise to balance budgets

The Global Context: People recognize the interdependence of the global

economy and want to participate in international policies and institutions.

Business has an international focus but with a strong sense of social

responsibility, working in partnership with government, non-profit

organizations and consumers. International trade expands but with strong

environmental and social controls.

Achieving a balance between economic, social and environmental policy is

seen as important. Government agencies work with business and non-profit

groups (especially international NGOs) to foster social and environmental

improvements through public policy and international cooperation.

Multinational organizations are created to develop and enforce global

regulations on shared resources such as oceans. Decision making

processes become more open but also more complex. Private property rights

are softened and some people complain about a “big brother” attitude in

government.

Economic conditions are stable and technological advances focus on eco-

efficiency and human health. The average work week declines and

employees get more vacation allotments. Capital and technology flows to low

income countries to bring their living standards closer to high income

countries. Education and training is given a high priority to create high value

jobs. Welfare systems and social services are enhanced but with a significant

increase in taxes to pay for them.

The Chilliwack Context: Corporate social responsibility becomes a much

higher priority in Chilliwack and businesses actively promote their efforts to

reduce their environmental impacts and to support disadvantaged community

members. Government increases support for disadvantaged people.

University tuition costs are reduced, although taxes rise significantly to pay for

these and other services.

Private property ownership rights are reduced and new shared-use

community assets and amenities are introduced. Some people complain

about all the new rules that constrain their activities. The Chilliwack airport

passenger volumes decline. A high speed rail system brings a new group of

long stay travellers and regional visitors. Geo-exchange heating systems and

solar hot water panels are common.

Non-energy intensive recreational activities become much more popular and

people choose to work fewer hours so they can play longer. Traditional retail

sales decline because higher taxes and lower incomes cause people to buy

fewer goods.




BUSINESS


o More tourism and recreational activities. o Different types of business activities. o More government jobs. o More educational activities. o Reduced environmental impacts from agriculture. o Change of eating habits toward less meat/less sick

time. o Businesses collaborate more often. o Big box stores /retailers face major decline.

o Improve infrastructure and transit. o Improve transit integration. o Expand regulations for the agricultural sector. o Improve productivity. o Improve affordability to offset high taxes. o Promote more specialized retail business to meet

needs of local market.

PLACE


o Greater emphasis on livability in lower mainland region.

o Increased production of / demand for community gardens.

o Support more and better housing developments. o Expand leisure orientated housing. o Promote affordable, well designed secondary

housing. o Market Chilliwack’s ‘livability’ advantages. o Create partnerships with local famers.

PEOPLE


o Higher taxes/higher wages. o Aging population given more services/support. o Reduced tuition costs. o Better educated work force. o Strong social safety net. o Less crime / safer community. o Fewer unemployed and needy people. o Rich/poor gap narrows.

o Encourage business to contribute more to community.

o Provide a local focal point for seniors. o Attract new people to Chilliwack. o Create a marketing campaign for Chilliwack to

attract businesses, residents, and workers. o Market Chilliwack’s educated / skilled workers to

world markets.

SUSTAINABILITY


o Stable land base. o Reduction in pollution. o Increased demand for cultural and entertainment

options. o Cost of foods rise. o Innovative solutions to density implemented. o Wastes and wastewater minimized.

o Market the local economy as ‘green’. o Market to eco tourists. o Increase infrastructure to meet demand. o Provide community gardens on unused farmland. o Regulate building / infrastructure towards

environmentally friendly materials. o Increase affordability for the community.



Scenario 4: Local/regional Self-reliance (Autonomy/Community)


Eco-villages

Bhutan

Hutterite Colonies

Economic Trends

Low/no economic growth

Shift to self-reliant activities

Unemployment is medium/ low as people work less

Small-scale manufacturing and farming expands

Tourism, retail and financial services decline


Incomes shrink but are much more equitable

People trade, borrow and share to reduce costs

Health improves


CO2 levels decline as energy use plummets

Environmental stewardship is a prime concern, esp. farmland, water, and forests


Low energy technologies are favoured

Small-scale renewable energy expands


Local government expands

Citizens actively participate in local decision-making

Immigration stops

Taxes increase

The Global Context: People disconnect themselves from the global economic

system either by choice or because of a breakdown in the system and focus on

living sustainable, self-reliant lifestyles at a local or regional scale. The

economy is driven by small business serving local markets with small-scale

manufacturing and services. Protecting the environment and natural resources

becomes a top concern.

People actively participate in local governance and decision-making. Health,

education and social services are publicly funded and paid for by high levels of

taxation and regionally controlled. Government and business focus almost

entirely on local affairs. International trade plummets and some communities

become antagonistic to adjacent communities that want access to scarce local

resources. Tolerance of other cultures and lifestyles declines.

Businesses face lower competition but are restrained by regional resources

(knowledge, technology, and materials). Investment shifts from global stock

exchanges to community investment organizations. The economy is stable,

favouring small-scale production. Tourism, financial services and high tech

industries decline. People buy only what they need so retail outlets go out of

business in large numbers. People have a strong environmental ethics as they

work to preserve scarce local resources and increase the productivity of

agricultural and forest lands. Housing sizes shrink as people make do with

less.

The Chilliwack Context: Tourism declines significantly as people shift from

travel and trade to local self-reliance. Strong community ties develop as people

work together to grow food, operate small-scale manufacturing operations, and

build houses in barn-raising style work-bees. Free stores are set up for people

to borrow or rent tools, clothing, and recreational equipment (e.g., canoes).

People earn far less but also spend less to keep their household finances in

balance.

Car sharing becomes very popular and young families invite the parents to live

with them when their parents are no longer able to live in their own homes.

Small scale, non-energy intensive technologies come back in vogue. Labour

replaces technology (e.g., push mowers vs. electric or gas mowers) and the

general fitness level of residents improves. The cash economy shifts toward a

trade/barter economy.

Energy consumption shrinks dramatically, resulting in a gradual decline in

severe weather events. Residents are less welcoming of newcomers, which

they view as depleting local resource supplies.




BUSINESS


o More family orientated/multi-generational businesses.

o More trading / less buying. o More local craft businesses. o Lack of capital. o No new enterprises / skills / technologies. o Internal trade, products sold only within community. o Few places to use acquired skills. o Few employment opportunities.

o Develop large flea market farmers market. o Promote cooperatives/local produce. o Provide tax incentives for leaders /job creators. o Strengthen supply / demand quota system. o Promote business that speak to local mentality,

brand. o Organize job banks / trading for efficient use of skill

sets. o Develop local policies to encourage entrepreneurs. o Create local jobs.

PLACE


o Land use patterns return to those 100 years ago. o Land becomes worth much less.

o Encourage local food markets. o Support neighbourhoods planned for this life style. o Encourage an entrepreneurial spirit. o Encourage local investment/local capital. o Ensure that land use planning is thoughtful,

effective. o Diversity the economic base.

PEOPLE


o Taxes increase relative to incomes. o Less money to support social services. o Fewer jobs. o People share more things cars/homes/tools. o Decline in tourism. o Education become less important.

o Encourage education. o Encourage youth to engage, think and develop. o Attract investors that produce and sell. o Bring new business ideas to life. o Diversify opportunities/create economic balance. o Promote group buying/collaborate cost sharing. o Focus on basic human needs e.g., agriculture.

SUSTAINABILITY


o Less travel in / out of community. o Less industry / technology. o Reduced technological advantages. o Supply chain internalized. o Insular / limited marketplace skills.

o Develop support car sharing program. o Promote public transit, walking, and cycling. o Promote energy efficiency. o Encourage education. o Develop trade and commerce centers / facilities. o Help youth to engage in the community. o Improve education, marketing, business facilitation.

y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-revb 02jan_13\components\appendix d - results of future scenarios.docx



Table E-1: Change in Population By Selected Jurisdictions, 2011 to 2041E1

Jurisdictions 2011 2021 2031 2036 2041 % change 2011-2041

City of Chilliwack 86,695 104,445 125,825 138,106 151,585 74.8%

Fraser Valley Regional District 296,005 346,215 405,355 438,770 475,045 60.5%

Metro Vancouver 2,404,911 2,780,200 3,129,000 3,251,870 3,400,400 41.4%

British Columbia (low) 4,588,100 5,128,000 5,588,800 5,785,800 n/a n/a

British Columbia (high) 4,608,000 5,497,600 6,457,300 6,955,600 n/a n/a

Canada (low) 34,454,500 37,171,200 39,314,500 40,142,400 40,839,800 18.5%

Canada (high) 34,594,600 39,641,200 44,968,000 47,686,000 50,519,600 46.0%

United States of America (low) 311,051,000 339,745,000 368,522,000 382,621,000 396,671,000 27.5%

United States of America (high) 315,772,000 350,237,000 386,243,000 400,854,000 423,157,000 34.0%

World 6,839,593 7,574,068 8,218,684 8,494,203 8,742,253 27.8%

Table E-2: Households Projections in the Fraser Valley Regional District, 2011 to 2041E2


City of Chilliwack 33,595 40,955 49,736 54,863 60,218 79%

City of Abbotsford 50,952 62,223 74,717 82,218 89,097 75%

Remaining Fraser Valley RD 27,678 32,861 36,998 39,557 41,927 51%

Total Fraser Valley RD 112,225 136,039 161,452 176,638 191,242 70%

Table E-3: Labour Force Projections in the Fraser Valley Regional District, 2011 to 2041E3


City of Chilliwack 37,279 47,000 57,880 63,529 69,729 87%

City of Abbotsford 65,489 78,543 94,157 102,035 110,572 69%

Remaining Fraser Valley RD 26,686 31,205 35,902 37,998 40,228 51%

Total Fraser Valley RD 129,454 156,748 187,939 203,562 220,529 70% NOTE: Based on LHA

y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-revb 02jan_13\components\appendix e - economic projection tables.docx

E1 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012); Metro Vancouver (2011); Statistics Canada (2012); The World Bank (2012); and, United States Census (2012) E2 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012) E3 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012).

Golder Associates Ltd.

#200-420 West Hastings Street

Vancouver, British Columbia, V6B 1L1

Canada

T: +1 (604) 688 9769

city of chilliwack economic and employment prospects · 2013-11-04 · city of chilliwack economic...

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