city tourism outlook and ranking: coronavirus impacts and

April 2020

City Tourism Outlook and Ranking: Coronavirus Impacts and Recovery

David Goodger

Managing Director, EMEA

Tourism Economics

[email protected]

Kieran Ferran

Senior Economist

Tourism Economics

[email protected]

Questions: Use the question panel on the right Questions: Use the question panel on the right

Coronavirus has spread more widely and rapidly than expected

• Vast majority of countries affected

• Travel restrictions have been

imposed by most countries

• Significant impacts on travel to,

from and within countries in near-

term

Source: Tourism Economics Global Travel Service (GTS)

Countries with travel restrictions, shaded according to

inbound travel spending


Global lockdowns are having a very large impact on economy and travel

0 20 40 60 80 100

Present

Past

ChinaItalySpainFranceGermanyUS (specific states)UKIndiaAustraliaJapanOther

Global lockdowns

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics % of global GDP

16%

63%


Immediate economic impact will be greater than during GFC

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Non-China EM q/q contributionChina q/q contributionAdvanced economies q/q contributionGlobal % quarter

World: GDP

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

% quarter Forecast


Policy stimulus is providing vital support

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

Global: Fiscal impulse


Ppts of potential GDP

Forecast


Expected growth in recovery but impacts will be felt into the medium term

2019 2020 2021 2022

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Global US Eurozone China

Source: Oxford Economics

2022 GDP relative topre-recession trend

Global GDP OutlookAnnual growth, %

Questions: Use the question panel on the right

Huge hit to labour market will impact consumer and travel demand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

France US Spain UK

Labour shocks


% of Total employmentFrance - workers temporarily laid-off under government support schemeUS - rise in jobless claims in the four weeks to Mar 28Spain - fall in employment end-Feb to end-MarchUK - applications for universal credit Mar 16 to 31


International travel will fall more sharply than GDP for the year

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

GDP (real price)

Prior upside

Prior downside

New baseline

Source: Tourism Economics

Global GDP & Tourist ArrivalsAnnual growth, %


Impacts felt across all regions

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Asia Pacific Europe North America Latin America Middle East &Africa

2020 2021 2022 2023

Global city international visitor arrivals by destination region, relative to 2019% difference from 2019 levels



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Europe

MEA

APAC

N America

LatinAmerica

Source: UNWTO, Tourism Economics

Global arrivals: average monthly seasonality

% share annual arrivals, 2013-18

Expected impacts in 2020 will be affected by duration and seasonality

• Expected 8-month impact period covers

over 3/4 usual annual European travel

activity – but a smaller amount of usual

travel for Middle East and Africa (2/3).

• Within this, current restrictions are

expected for around 4 months.

• Duration of current restrictions will have

a big impact on flows – some tapering

may begin peak summer months.

• “Typical airline had 2 months of cash at

the start of the year” according to IATA -

airline failures may follow.


Occupancy falls below 50% in most major markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

5th

12th 19th 26th Feb

2nd

9th 16th 23rd Mar

1st

8th 15th 22nd 29th Apr

5th

Average Hotel Occupancy Rate by Country & RegionChina

Asia Pacific excl. China

Europe

USA

Source: STR, Tourism Economics

Occupancy rate,%, rolling 7 day average for week ending

Datafor week ending


Occupancy falls below 50% in most major markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Co

logn

e

Melb

ourn

e

Syd

ney

Dub

ai

Leed

s

Mu

mb

ai

Berl

in

Gla

sgo

w

Mad

rid

Lo

nd

on

Edin

bu

rgh

Ham

bu

rg

Milan

Bru

sse

ls

Duss

eld

orf

Am

sterd

am

Birm

ing

ham

Dub

lin

Bud

apest

Mo

scow

Mu

nic

h

Average Hotel Occupancy Rate by Market

Feb23rd

Mar 22nd

Source: STR, Tourism Economics

Occupancy rate, %, rolling 7 day average for week endingData for week ending


Largest city destinations hit hardest…

-3.3

-3.5

-3.8

-3.8

-4.2

-4.3

-4.6

-4.6

-4.8

-4.9

-5.7

-6.7

-8.2

-9.7

-10.3

-42%-37%-36%-42%-37%-37%-42%-34%-36%-43%-40%-41%-41%-42%-51%

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

GuangzhouBarcelona

Kuala LumpurOsakaTokyo

SingaporeRome

New YorkParis

ShenzhenLondon

DubaiMacao

BangkokHong Kong


City international visitor arrivals decline, 2019-2020(mn) % change


… but declines in international visitor arrivals in all cities in 2020

Decline in international city visitor arrivals (mn), 2019-2020


Some changes to the city rankings

2019

Rank

2019

(mn)

2020

Rank

2020

(mn)

2025

Rank

2025

(mn)

Bangkok 1 22.9 1 13.2 1 25.7

Hong Kong 2 20.1 3 9.8 3 22.5

Macao 3 19.8 2 11.6 2 23.9

Dubai 4 16.3 4 9.5 4 19.5

London 5 14.2 7 8.5 5 15.5

New York 6 13.5 5 8.9 8 14.4

Paris 7 13.4 6 8.6 7 14.6

Singapore 8 11.8 8 7.5 6 15.1

Shenzhen 9 11.6 12 6.6 11 13.5

Tokyo 10 11.3 9 7.2 10 13.9

Rome 11 10.9 13 6.3 14 10.9

Kuala Lumpur 12 10.6 11 6.8 9 14.0

Shanghai 13 10.3 10 7.0 12 10.9

Barcelona 14 9.3 14 5.9 18 9.8

Osaka 15 9.1 17 5.2 17 9.9

Source: Tourism Economics Key:

Global city international visitor arrivals

Moved up rankings

relative to 2019

Moved down rankings

relative to 2019


Cities with large proportion of long-haul visitors may take longer to recover

90%

60%

57%

81%

89%

68%

76%

83%

63%

54%

26%

29%

88%

98%

75%

10%

40%

43%

19%

11%

32%

24%

17%

37%

46%

74%

71%

12%

2%

25%

0 5 10 15

CancúnBarcelona

RomeShenzhen

Kuala LumpurShanghai

TokyoSingapore

LondonParis

New YorkDubai

Hong KongMacao

Bangkok

Short- & Medium-haul

Long-haul


Top 15 city destinations, split by distance, 2020(mn)


Return to 2019 levels of international visitor arrivals will take several years…

City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2019

Key:

International visitor

arrivals below 2019 level


arrivals equal to or above

2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


… declines in international arrivals are forecast for all cities in 2020…


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


…some recovery in 2021 but all cities will still remain below 2019 levels…


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


…it will take until 2022 before the first cities return to 2019 levels…


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


… and by 2023 most cities are expected to exceed 2019 levels…


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


… with almost all cities recovered to at least 2019 levels by 2024…


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


… but by 2025, some Italian cities still remain below 2019 levels.


Key:





2019 levels

Levels:0mn

5mn

10mn

15mn

20mn

25mn


Domestic visitor arrivals will decline sharply in 2020

60%

49%

35%

73%

53%

90%

-400 -300 -200 -100 0

Latin America

Middle East & Africa

Europe

North America

Asia Pacific (exc. China)

China

International

Domestic


Decline in city domestic visitor arrivals by region, 2019-2020(mn)

Domestic share of totalcity arrivals 2020


Domestic recovery by 2021 but international recovery will take 2 more years

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

International visitor arrivals

Domestic visitor arrivals

Global city international vs domestic visitor arrivals(mn)



Dubai

New York

London

Paris

Tokyo

Shanghai

Rome

Barcelona

Istanbul

Los AngelesOrlando

Miami

Cracow

San Francisco

Hangzhou

Jakarta

RiyadhCape Town

Abu Dhabi

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


City reliance on domestic and long-haul arrivals, 2020

Long-haul % share of international arrivals

Do

me

stic %

sh

are

of to

tal a

rriv

als

More Volatile

Less Volatile

The recovery will be uneven

Note: Annotated cities are those ranked in top 50 largest

cities for international visitor arrivals


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city tourism outlook and ranking: coronavirus impacts and

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