city wire handout_0503_final_tmal

29
Rising opportunities for stock selection in Japan Disclaimer: This material is for information purpose only for professional institutional investors outside Japan and does not constitute an offer or invitations to make an investment in any financial instrument or in any product to which Tokio Marine Asset Management provides investment advisory or any other services. We believe its data and text services to be reliable, but accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. We do not assume any liability in the case of incorrectly reported or incomplete information. All data presented in this material are provided by Tokio Marine Asset Management Co., Ltd. unless otherwise mentioned.

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Page 1: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Rising opportunities for stock selection in Japan

Disclaimer: This material is for information purpose only for professional institutional investors outside Japan and does not constitute an offer or invitations to make an investment in any financial instrument or in any product to which Tokio Marine Asset Management provides investment advisory or any other services. We believe its data and text services to be reliable, but accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. We do not assume any liability in the case of incorrectly reported or incomplete information.

All data presented in this material are provided by Tokio Marine Asset Management Co., Ltd. unless otherwise mentioned.

Page 2: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Tatsuro Yuzawa, CFAChief Investment OfficerTokio Marine Asset Management Co., Ltd. (TMA)

Investment experience since 1990

MBA, Concentration in Accounting & Strategic Management, from the University of Chicago

Chief Investment Officer

Appointed as Chief Investment Officer in July 2012, Tatsuro is fully responsible for overseeing all of the Investment Division’s business at the firm.

Tatsuro joined Tokio Marine Asset Management as Head of Quantitative Research and Investment in October 2006.

He started his career as a Japanese equity professional at Brinson Partners in Chicago in 1998 after managing global fixed income and US equity portfolios in Japan and the US for eight years.

Prior to joining Tokio Marine Asset Management in 2006, he managed Japanese equity portfolios at foreign asset management firms in Japan such as UBS and Credit Suisse. Tatsuro also served as Head of Investment at Mellon Global Investments Japan.

Tatsuro obtained a BA in Law from Tohoku University and has an MBA from the University of Chicago. He is a CFA charterholder.

Page 3: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

What’s going on in Japan?

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4

Is this time different?

Source: Bloomberg ( 29 Dec 1989 – 26 Apr 2013 )

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nikkei 225 and JPY have been on a one-way trend since the late 90s despite several rebounds

Have things really turned around this time?

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201160

80

100

120

140

160

180

Nikkei 225 (left)JPY (right)

Yen YenNikkei 225 Index and Japanese Yen

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5

Thoroughly prepared policies and decisions

September

2012Abe elected president of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

December Abe’s LDP won Lower House election with comfortable majority

January

2013

Japan’s 2nd largest supplemental budget proposed

Abe forced Bank of Japan (BOJ) to share an accord with the government for the first time

MarchAbe nominated a dovish governor (Kuroda) and deputy governor (Iwata) for BOJ

Abe decided to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks (TPP)

AprilRevolutionary monetary easing introduced by newly-appointed Kuroda

Successfully persuaded G20 to accept BOJ’s policy and weakened yen

The current LDP and Prime Minister Abe are not who they once were

Countermeasures against deflation have been executed in a timely manner

Page 6: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Three anti-deflationary policymakers

Korekiyo Takahashi

Abandoned the gold standard (hence weakening the yen) in 1931 during his fourth term as Finance Minister of Japan in order to bring Japan out of the Great Depression. Instituted aggressive fiscal policy directly financed by BOJ.

Shinzo Abe

Developed three-pronged “Abenomics” in 2013 as Prime Minister. Attempting to pull Japan out of its long- lasting deflationary environment by changing how people think.

Source: Wikipedia Source: http://franklinroosevelt.com/ Source: LDP’s website

6

Korekiyo successfully implemented reflationary policies after which the New Deal was modelled

Abe is emulating these successful ideas 80 years later

Franklin Roosevelt

Introduced the New Deal in 1933 while President of the United States in response to the Great Depression. This series of economic programs incorporated some Keynesian theories.

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7

“Abenomics” consists of three “bazookas” (Aso’s contribution to FT on 19 April 2013)

Ultimate goal is to end Japan’s deflation and move toward an inflationary environment

People’s expectations for future prices are key

What is “Abenomics”?

Bold Monetary PolicyBold Monetary Policy

Flexible Fiscal PolicyFlexible Fiscal Policy

Growth StrategyGrowth Strategy

Weaker yen

Lower yield

Public const.

Deregulation

Tax benefits

Stocks↑Real Estate↑

Positive cycle of expectations

Purchases↑

Sales↑Exports↑ Wages↑

Investment↑

Page 8: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

8

People support Abe and expect changes

Abe’s approval rating went up by 7% to 76% according to a Nikkei report (22 April 2013)

Sentiment surveys of citizens show economic conditions are improving

The primary party may become dominant in the Upper House for the first time since 1989

Cabinet approval rate opinion poll Economy watcher survey

Source: Cabinet Office

%

Source: “Hodo Station”

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mor

i (0

4/20

00)

Koiz

umi

(04/

2001

)

2002

2003

2004

2005

Abe

(09/

2006

)

Fuku

da

(09/

2007

)

Aso

(09/

2008

)

Hat

oyam

(09/

2009

)

Kan

(06/

2010

)

Nod

a (0

9/20

11)

Abe

(12/

2012

)

cabinet support ratedisapproval rating

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26.0 24.217.7 14.7 17.1 14.2 18.4 16.6

11.5 9.7 12.0 11.5 12.5 12.9

54.7 56.6 68.1 69.4 67.5 69.8 63.7 64.4 71.3 73.9 67.5 66.6 63.3 60.1

12.3 12.89.9 8.9 8.4 9.3 10.5 11.0 9.1 7.7

10.8 11.3 11.5 12.9

5.1 5.64.6 4.1 3.5 6.6 7.3 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.7 9.8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

03/2

000

03/2

001

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002

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003

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12/2

012Japanese equity Japanese fixed income International equityInternational fixed income Cash

9

Portfolio rebalance effect

Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world’s largest public pension fund, is reviewing its asset allocation, recognizing policies of the Japanese government and BOJ

The president of GPIF has suggested it may shift to equities and non-Japanese bonds

Private pension funds may follow, as well as financial institutions

Source: Pension Welfare Service Public Corporation, Government Pension Investment Fund

Impact of rebalancing

Total AUM of GPIF 111.9 trillion yen as of Dec 2012

+ 1% shift = + 1.1 trillion yen

+ 5% shift = + 5.6 trillion yen

Normal asset mixCash 5%Int’l bonds 9%Int’l equity 8%Japanese bonds 67%Japanese equity 11%

Asset allocation of public pension funds

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10

Effective in January 2014

Up to 5 million yen with annual contribution of 1 million yen for 5 years

Tax-exempt for 5 years for each annualcontribution, total for 10 years

Individuals need to prepare for inflation

Bank deposits, a “Champion” of deflation, are still dominant in personal assets

ISA schemes will start at the right time

Comparison of household flow of funds

Cash holdings distribution in Japan

Source: Bank of Japan Source: Bank of Japan, Cabinet Office

55.2

14.6

35.8

9.5

7.0

4.0

11.8

7.2

6.8

32.8

14.4

27.7

28.1

31.7

4.2

3.9

2.1

3.2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Japan

US

Eurozone

Cash, Deposit Bond Unit trust Equity Insurance, Pension Others

ISAs in Japan

Cash & equivalent

Households 848 trillion yen

Corporations 197 trillion yen

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11

Japanese corporate earnings outlook

Consensus earnings (ex financials) are expected to grow by 30.7% in FY2013 assuming

90JPY/USD and 120JPY/EUR

If yen weakens by another 10 yen (100JPY/USD, 130JPY/EUR), the growth will be about 45%

Foreign exchange sensitivity(%)

USD/JPY EUR/JPY(a) (b)

Autos 3.2 0.4 3.7Electronics/precision 1.3 0.4 1.7Machinery 1.4 0.3 1.6Steel & Nonferrous Metals 1.6 0.0 1.6Chemicals 1.3 0.1 1.3Software 0.2 0.8 1.0Trading House 0.9 0.0 0.9Foods 0.4 0.0 0.4Home Products 0.2 0.2 0.3Financials 0.1 0.1 0.3Pharmaceuticals/Healthcare 0.2 0.0 0.3Housing/Real Estate 0.1 0.0 0.1Retail Stores 0.0 0.0 0.0Telecommunication 0.0 0.0 0.0Services 0.0 0.0 0.0Media 0.0 0.0 0.0Construction 0.0 0.0 0.0Utilities 0.0 0.0 0.0Transportation -0.1 0.2 -0.1Total 1.2 0.2 1.4

Russell Nomura Large Cap (a)+(b)

Fuji Heavy Industries’ earnings revision in FY2012

Sensitivity• USD/JPY 70 billion yen per 10 yen• EUR/JPY 3 billion yen per 10 yen

Company’s OP estimates

8 May 2012 67

30 Oct 2012 82

6 Feb 2013 107

26 Apr 2013 120

(billion yen)

Page 12: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

12

Appropriate valuation of Yen and Nikkei

Recent movement is described well using Soros charts

JPY/USD can be 105-110 yen, assuming 270 trillion yen monetary base at the end of 2014

TOPIX can be 1,400 pts using the same assumption and relationship with the US equity index

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201460

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

JPN/US Monetary base (left)

JPY/USD (right)

Monetary base and currency rate Monetary base and stock indices

Source: Datastream, TMA

• Excess reserve deposits are excluded from monetary base

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

JPN/USD Monetary base (left)

TOPIX/S&P 500 (right)

Source: Datastream, TMA

• Excess reserve deposits are excluded from monetary base

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Page 13: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

- 20 40 60 80 100

Other FinancialsConst./Housing/Real Estate

AutosBanks

Consumer ElectronicsMedia

TOPIX (Incl.Dividend)Retail Stores

UtilitiesSteel & Nonferrous Metals

Industrial ElectronicsMachinery

TransportationElectronic Parts

ServicesTelecommunication

Home ProductsPharmaceuticals/Healthcare

Basic MaterialsFoods

Trading HouseSoftw are

13

Opportunities for bottom-up stock selection

Cautious and uncertain indices-led rally has created big discrepancies among stocks

We are seeing opportunities for stock selection similar to what we saw in 2005

Sector Performance15 November 2012 – 26 April 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Portfolio Attribution Report Start Jan-2005End Dec-2005

Focus: TK54

Portfolio BM +/- Allocation Selection Total 74.05 45.23 28.83 7.69 20.69 0.00 Basic Materials 33.30 54.46 -21.15 -0.06 -1.66 -0.22 Steel & Nonferrous Metals 120.38 87.00 33.38 1.51 0.26 2.30 Machinery 68.36 75.33 -6.97 0.33 0.88 3.28 Autos 72.00 39.59 32.40 -0.03 4.24 1.50 Industrial Electronics 15.12 29.63 -14.52 1.04 -0.80 -1.28 Consumer Electronics 16.48 20.09 -3.61 0.73 -0.15 -0.43 Electronic Parts 26.38 40.19 -13.81 0.05 0.98 -0.17 Pharmaceuticals/Healthcare 11.32 23.28 -11.97 0.19 -0.12 -1.07 Foods 11.33 25.21 -13.88 0.88 0.00 -1.43 Home Products 0.00 38.09 -38.09 0.12 0.00 -1.43 Trading House 78.08 76.04 2.04 1.75 -0.13 5.06 Retail Stores 45.63 65.70 -20.07 -0.57 0.11 -3.37 Services 253.65 33.32 220.32 0.40 -0.16 -2.30 Software 69.86 52.62 17.24 -0.07 0.51 -0.22 Media -8.80 37.24 -46.04 0.11 -0.21 -0.99 Telecommunication -2.02 5.81 -7.83 0.76 0.38 -0.45 Const./Housing/Real Estate 155.38 62.90 92.48 1.03 7.98 7.14 Transportation 63.10 42.59 20.52 0.20 1.11 3.32 Utilities 9.52 23.60 -14.08 -0.01 -0.48 -0.39 Banks 69.87 58.87 11.00 -0.81 0.58 -7.53 Other Financials 196.91 53.25 143.66 0.13 7.36 -1.31

Return Attribution Activeweight

%

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Page 14: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

TMA as a bottom-up stock picker

Page 15: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

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A B C

15

How we pick “winners”

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3

-2

-1

0

1

Low Growth

Valuation

High

Low

2

High3

2

3

Our Targets

We look at both growth and valuation

Our analyst performance has worked well for Japanese equities

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A: Strong outperformersB: OutperformersC: Market performers

Analyst Rating Performance

Page 16: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

16

Consensus gap is key

Earnings Estimate (E) Earnings Estimate (E) ×× Target Valuation (V)Target Valuation (V)Fair Value Fair

Value

GAP A: Our Earnings Estimates vs. Consensus Estimates

GAP B: Our Target Valuation vs. Sector/Historical Average

GAP C: Estimated Fair Value vs. Current Market Price

Medium-term growth

Structural change

Management quality

Changes in financial strength

Market Price <Estimated Fair Value = Upside Potential

TMA’s  Estimate TMA’s  Estimate

Consensus

Market Price

Fair Value

Gap CGap C Gap BGap B

Gap AGap A

TMA’sEstimate

PERPER

Y: Price (E×V)

X: Earnings (E)

We look for consensus gaps for both “earnings estimates” and “valuation”

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17

Japanese equity team structure

8 experienced FMs managing diversified, concentrated, and small cap portfolios

13 analysts covering 400 stocks with efficient sector grouping

Yoshihisa Nakagawa (23/23)

Head of Japanese Equity

Tatsuhiko Takura (28/18)

Chief PM: Growth

Kenichi Hiramatsu (20/11)Chief PM: Small Cap

Kenichi Kubo (11/11)Chief PM: Leaders

Hironori Akizawa (6/5)Chief PM: GARP (β adjusted)

Akira Sato (25/15)Chief PM: Focus

Koji Hashizume (21/5)

Senior Portfolio Manager

Junpei Kitahara (6/6)Portfolio Manager

Japanese Equity Investment

FinancialsMasayuki Okada (7/6)

Pharmaceutical, Healthcare, Foods, Household goodsYou Mizuno(19/2)

Mika Takagi (17/12)Tsurue Kai (9/4)

Yusuke Yanagisawa (20/17)Head of Investment Research

IT Team

Autos, MachineryShigeru Moriyama (15/17)

Takeru Asano (14/12)

Materials

Katsunori Hirai (22/14)

Hiroyuki Natsume (11/11)Keita Nishino**

TradingMika Takagi**

Basic Industry Team

ElectronicsKeita Nishino (19/11)Hiroyasu Sato (15/2)

Yutaka Matsumoto (21/21)

Software, Media, Telecommunication

Akio Otani (12/12)

Investment Research

Utilities, InfrastructureKatsunori Hirai **

Masayuki Okada **Yusuke Yanagisawa**

Financial and Services Team Social Infrastructure Team

Chief Investment Officer: Tatsuro Yuzawa (22/6)*

Economist: Osamu Kikuchi(22/14), Tetsushi Wakayama(6/6) Quantitative Analysts: 7 people Trading Team: 4 people

Yoshihisa Nakagawa (23/23)

Head of Japanese Equity

Tatsuhiko Takura (28/18)

Chief PM: Growth

Kenichi Hiramatsu (20/11)Chief PM: Small Cap

Kenichi Kubo (11/11)Chief PM: Leaders

Hironori Akizawa (6/5)Chief PM: GARP (β adjusted)

Akira Sato (25/15)Chief PM: Focus

Koji Hashizume (21/5)

Senior Portfolio Manager

Junpei Kitahara (6/6)Portfolio Manager

Japanese Equity Investment

FinancialsMasayuki Okada (7/6)

Pharmaceutical, Healthcare, Foods, Household goodsYou Mizuno(19/2)

Mika Takagi (17/12)Tsurue Kai (9/4)

Yusuke Yanagisawa (20/17)Head of Investment Research

IT Team

Autos, MachineryShigeru Moriyama (15/17)

Takeru Asano (14/12)

Materials

Katsunori Hirai (22/14)

Hiroyuki Natsume (11/11)Keita Nishino**

TradingMika Takagi**

Basic Industry Team

ElectronicsKeita Nishino (19/11)Hiroyasu Sato (15/2)

Yutaka Matsumoto (21/21)

Software, Media, Telecommunication

Akio Otani (12/12)

Investment Research

Utilities, InfrastructureKatsunori Hirai **

Masayuki Okada **Yusuke Yanagisawa**

Financial and Services Team Social Infrastructure Team

Chief Investment Officer: Tatsuro Yuzawa (22/6)*

Economist: Osamu Kikuchi(22/14), Tetsushi Wakayama(6/6) Quantitative Analysts: 7 people Trading Team: 4 people

*(Years of investment experience/ Years with Tokio Marine Asset Management)**Additional post in the diagram.

As at 31 March 2013

Page 18: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

18

Examples of current investment ideas (1)

• Deregulation of agriculture and exporting to Asia

→ Farm equipment ・・・Kubota

• Ageing population and saving medical expenditures

→ Generic medicine ・・・ Sawai Pharmaceutical

• Innovation for mobile device

→ Unique LCD film ・・・ Nitto Denko

• Shopping backed by wealth effects

→ Trend conscious apparel ・・・ United Arrows

• Reflationary assets and financial deregulation

→ Real estate and asset management ・・・ Orix

Domestic/defensive sectors look more attractive in terms of potential growth and valuation

We are looking for stocks which will benefit from growth strategy and regulatory reform

• The above description is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitations to make an investment in any financial instrument.

Page 19: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

19

Examples of current investment ideas (2)

• SoftbankMasayoshi Son, President/Founder, 19% ownership

• NidecShigenobu Nagamori, President/CEO/Founder, 12%

• UnicharmTakahisa Takahara, President/CEO, 28%

• Park24Koichi Nishikawa, President, 26%

• Kobayashi PharmaceuticalAkihiro Kobayashi, Senior Executive Director, 27%

Performance of “Owners stocks”

Source: Bloomberg

• Owners Universe consists of companies for which owners’ stakes are more than 5%.

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

“Owners stocks” have shown good performance

Strong leadership fosters innovation and quick decision-making

We expect these to maximize shareholder profit over the long term

• Ownerships include the holding companies and the families.

• The above description is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitations to make an investment in any financial instrument.

-60%

-40%

-20%

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60%

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TOPIX

Owners universe

Page 20: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Summary

Contrary to the past, BOJ shares the government policy, and Japanese corporate management and peoples support the change this time.

Abenomics, which consists of monetary, fiscal, and growth policies, might promote portfolio rebalancing, and may encourage companies and households to use their ample cash.

As a result of the depreciated yen, corporate earnings may increase by as much as 45%.

Index-led equity market has created huge dispersion among stocks, making the expertise of a bottom-up stock picker like TMA necessary to navigate the market.

Achieving 2% inflation is not an easy goal but a positive cycle of expectations for future prices can change existing behaviors of people and corporations.

20

Page 21: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Thank you for your attention

Page 22: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Appendix

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BOJ’s quantitative and qualitative monetary easing

(1) Increase JGB purchases

(3) Buy equity ETFs and REITs

(2) Buy JGBs in all maturities

(4) Suspend banknotes principle

Portfolio Rebalance

JGB↓

StocksForeign bonds

No exit

BOJ will fall way behind the curve

Achieve 2% CPI in 2 years (inflation target)

2X monetary base: 128 trillion yen (Dec 2012) to 270 trillion yen or 55% of GDP (Dec 2014)

2X JGB holdings: 89 trillion yen (Dec 2012) to 190 trillion yen (Dec 2014)

Additional 2 trillion yen for buying ETFs over 2 years

Page 24: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

24

Do we believe in 2% inflation in 2 years?

Japanese consumers expect prices will go up in a year

BEI is gradually climbing to 1.5%

BOJ’s outlook for economy shows 1.4% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015

Inflation Expectations and Actual CPI Japanese Breakeven Inflation Rate

Source: Cabinet Office and Statistics Bureau

• Data for “Price expectations 1Y ahead” is calculated using the consumer confidence survey.• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

▲3.0%

▲2.0%

▲1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

04/2

004

10/2

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005

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005

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006

10/2

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013

Price Expectations 1Y aheadCPICPI-Core/Core

▲3.0%

▲2.5%

▲2.0%

▲1.5%

▲1.0%

▲0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

01/2

007

07/2

007

01/2

008

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008

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BEI 5YBEI 10Y

Source: Bloomberg

Page 25: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Age (left)Net new construction (right)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Nikkei 225

Yen

Koizumi structural reform

FX interventionSupplementary budget:6.3 trillion yen

Supplementary budget:8.5 trillion yen

FX interventionSupplementary budget:10.3 trillion yen

25

Effective fiscal packages and under-invested infrastructure

Fiscal stimulus packages prop up the stock market

Old infrastructure now needs to be reinforced with more construction spending

• Net new construction (%) = (public-sector fixed capital formation - consumption of fixed capital) / balance of public-sector fixed capital x 100

• Age of public-sector fixed capital in 1970 is based on research released by the Economic Planning Agency of Japan

Nikkei 225 and catalyst for the rebounds Aging infrastructure

Source: Bloomberg

• Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source: Cabinet Office, TMA

Years

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26

Structural reform for growth

Challenge, Open, and Innovation.Women are Japan’s hidden resource. To get them in the workforce, need reforms such as more nursery centres, up to three years of leave after having children, re-employment programs. More details for growth are due to be announced in June

Council on Economic & Fiscal PolicyCurrently forming “broad policy framework” due in June. Members are Abe, Aso, Kuroda, other cabinet members, economic professor, and representatives of the business community.

Macro StrategyMacro Strategy

Headquarters for Japan's Economic RevitalizationIndustry Competitiveness CouncilCurrently forming “broad policy framework” due in June. Focus is on saving energy costs, developing a healthy aging society, reinforcing IT infrastructure, relaxing employment system rules, etc.Council for Regulatory ReformPriority areas are healthcare, energy the environment, employment system, and entrepreneurship.

Micro StrategyMicro Strategy

Employment rates for mothers with youngest child aged under 6 (2002)

Source: OECD1. Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand and United States in 20012. Australia in 20003. Under 5 years old in Australia; under 7 in Sweden

Note:

%

75 7471

69 6765

6361 60

53 52 51 50 49 4945

35

78

57 57

20

40

60

80

SW

E

AU

T

DM

K

NLD BE

L

LUX

FRA

CA

N

CH

E

US

A

DE

U

GB

R

ITA

IRL

ES

P

GR

CFI

N

NZL

AU

S

JPN

Page 27: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

27

Corporate earnings and wages

Japanese corporations have accumulated ample cash on their balance sheets

But employees have not been paid well in the deflationary environment

Fast Retailing, DyDo DRINCO, Lawson, 7&I, JIN, and Workman have now agreed to raise wages

Corporate profit distribution Improving productivity ≠ Wage increase

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Factset Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Bank of Japan, Factset

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201099

100

101

102

103

104

105

Accumulated cash in corporate sector Wages, right axis (2010=100)

• The above description is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitations to make an investment in any financial instrument.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 201098

100

102

104

106

108

110

ProductivityReal Wage

Page 28: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

Yuichi “Alex” Takayama

Chief Executive OfficerChartered Member of the Security AnalystsAssociation of Japan

TOKIO MARINE ASSET MANAGEMENT (LONDON) LIMITEDAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority60 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0HR, U.K.Tel: +44 (0)20 7280 8570* Email: [email protected]

高 山 裕 一

* calls may be recorded

Ayumi Kondo近藤 あゆみHead of Marketing, Business DevelopmentChartered Member of the Security AnalystsAssociation of Japan

TOKIO MARINE ASSET MANAGEMENT (LONDON) LIMITEDAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority60 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0HR, U.K.Tel: +44 (0)20 7280 8576* Email: [email protected]

Tokio Marine Asset Management (London) Contact InformationAs your gateway to a wide range of Japan and Asian investment products, we are clearly focused on providing the highest level of client services via our experienced sales and marketing team. Please contact us:

Stephen Reddingスティーブン・レディングInstitutional Sales Manager

TOKIO MARINE ASSET MANAGEMENT (LONDON) LIMITEDAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority60 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0HR, U.K.Tel: +44 (0)20 7280 8572* Email: [email protected]

For general enquiries, please contactBusiness Development: [email protected] Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7280 8580*

Tomoko Morland-Okui奥井 智子Marketing Manager, Business Development

TOKIO MARINE ASSET MANAGEMENT (LONDON) LIMITEDAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority60 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0HR, U.K.Tel: +44 (0)20 7280 8577* Email: [email protected]

Page 29: City wire handout_0503_final_tmal

29

DisclaimerSwiss ResidentsThe funds promoted on this document (the "Funds") have not been authorised by the Federal Banking Commission as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes ("CISA") of June 23, 2006. Accordingly, interests in the Funds may not be offered to the public in or from Switzerland, and neither the information contained on this document nor any other offering material relating to the Funds may be distributed in connection with any such public offering. Interests in the Funds may only be offered and the information contained on this document may only be distributed in or from Switzerland to qualified investors pursuant to article 10 CISA and without any public offering in accordance with the relevant practice of the Swiss Federal Banking Commission.Any promotions of asset management services accessible through this document may be restricted under Swiss law and therefore Swiss residents into whose possession this information comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such promotions could otherwise result in a violation of the law of Switzerland.

UK ResidentsFunds PromotionsThe funds promoted on this document (the "Funds") are unregulated collective investment schemes within the meaning of Section 235 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 ("Act"). As such they are not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority or any other regulatory authority. Tokio Marine Asset Management (London) Limited, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority, is restricted by Section 21 and by Section 238 of the Act respectively and can only promote the Funds to certain categories of person. Tokio Marine Asset Management Co. Ltd (the Tokyo and Singapore entities) are not authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.As such, the promotion of interests in the Funds and communication of Fund related documents accessible through this document are restricted to 'investment professionals' and 'high net worth companies'. Recipients must fall within one of the following categories:(a) You must fall within the "high net worth companies" exemption set out in both Article 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. The information regarding the Funds is thus only provided on the basis the recipient is a company, trust or partnership with capital or assets exceeding the relevant minimum value set out in Article 22 or Article 49 (or is a person who normally represents such an entity in respect of its unregulated fund investments). Participation in the Funds may be available to such high net worth companies. Persons of any other description should not act or rely on the information provided. Any investment into the Funds must be understood to be high risk and to include the possibility of losing all of the committed investment and should therefore be carefully considered; or(b) You must fall within the "investment professional" exemption set out in both Article 14 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. The information regarding the Funds is thus only provided on the basis the recipient is an investment professional on the basis that you have professional experience of participating in unregulated schemes. Participation in the Funds will only be available to you if you are such a person. Should you not have the professional experience of participating in unregulated schemes, you should not rely on the information provided. Any investment into the Funds must be understood to be high risk and to include the possibility of losing all of your committed investment and should therefore be carefully considered.This document is therefore being communicated on the basis that it is exempt from the restriction on the promotion of unregulated schemes and its contents have therefore not been approved by an authorised person within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This is on the grounds that this document is being made to ‘investment professionals’ and ‘HNWC’ only as specified below and that these persons being persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments or persons to whom it may lawfully be promoted.This document must not be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any person who does not fall within the categories of person listed above. This material is being supplied to you exclusively for your information and may not be reproduced, forwarded to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you are in any doubt about the investment to which this document relates you should consult a person authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 who specialises in advising on investments of the kind described in this document.Asset Management PromotionsTokio Marine Asset Management (London) Limited, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority, is restricted by Section 21 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 (“Act”) and can only promote its asset management services in the UK to certain categories of person. Tokio Marine Asset Management Co. Ltd (the Tokyo and Singapore entities) are not authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.As such, the promotion of the services and communication of related documents through this material is restricted to 'investment professionals' and 'high net worth companies'. Recipients must fall within one of the following categories:(a) You must fall within the "high net worth companies" exemption set out in Article 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. The information regarding the asset management service is thus only provided on the basis the recipient is a company, trust or partnership with capital or assets exceeding the relevant minimum value set out Article 49 (or is a person who normally represents such an entity in respect of its unregulated fund investments). Participation in the service may be available to such high net worth companies. Persons of any other description should not act or rely on the information provided. Any investment must be understood to be high risk and to include the possibility of losing all of the committed investment and should therefore be carefully considered; or(b) You must fall within the "investment professional" exemption set out in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. The information regarding the asset management service is thus only provided on the basis the recipient is an investment professional on the basis that you have professional experience of participating in these activities. Participation in the service will only be available to you if you are such a person. Should you not have the professional experience of participating in these activities, you should not rely on the information provided. Any investment must be understood to be high risk and to include the possibility of losing all of your committed investment and should therefore be carefully considered.Should you not fall within the relevant categories for the Funds or asset management service you should not proceed. If you can not so proceed it is possible that you may fall within other exemptions. Please contact Tokio Marine Asset Management (London) Limited to discuss further. Potential investors who are uncertain of their status should refer to the relevant articles of the Financial Promotion Order. Persons from EEA member states and elsewhereThe promotion of the asset management services, interests in the Funds and communication of related documents accessible through this document may in certain jurisdictions be restricted by law and therefore persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation of the law of such jurisdictions. US ResidentsThis document is reserved exclusively for non-US persons and should not be accessed by any person in the United States. This document does not include any offer of investment products or services to any US persons.All personsYou must also ensure you comply with the disclaimers and promotional restrictions in the document. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and therefore persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation of the law of such jurisdictions. Each person in receipt of this document undertakes that they shall not at any time disclose to any person or entity any information set out in, or relating to, this document except as expressly authorised by the Funds.The information contained on this document is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and no other person should rely or act upon it. The information contained on this document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment or financial advice.Past performance is not a guide to future returns.The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back what you invested. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.