civil arcaftsleasmaylrtslpgcanroo · civil aircraft sales. aia’s civil aerospace category...

Civil Aircraft Sales

AIA’s civil aerospace category includes commercial,business and general aviation aircraft, as well as non-militaryhelicopters, aircraft engines and related parts. Civil salesdropped nearly six percent in 2010 to $48.2 billion. Areboundisexpectedin2011,butwillhingeonseveralfactors,includingtheeconomy,thepriceofjetfuel,availabilityandtermsofaircraftfinancingandenvironmentalregulations. Access to favorable financing for international sales ofU.S.civilaircraftwillhaveastronginfluenceontheindustry’srecovery.Astheyeardrawstoanend,theOrganizationforEconomic Co-operation and Development is attemptingto restructure the Aircraft Sector Understanding (ASU)to provide guidance to national Export Credit Agenciesregarding the financing of aircraft purchases if/whenprivate finance options are not feasible. Global aircraftmanufacturersagreeontheneedforanASUthatsatisfiesfourcoreobjectives:alevelplayingfieldforairlines;alevel

playing field for manufacturers; long-term availability ofaffordableexportcredit;andtheprimaryroleofcommercialmarketsinaircraftfinancing. Environmental regulationswill also continue toplay aninfluential role in the sale of civil aircraft. Pragmatic andpredictablerulesthatgivetheindustrysufficienttimetoadaptwillenablesustainableindustrygrowth.Forexample,goalssuchas achieving carbonneutral growth from2020driveindustry innovation – e.g., the development of alternativefuels–withouthinderinggrowth.However,initiativessuchas the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)financially threaten the airlines and aircraft sales. The AirTransportAssociationestimates that the ETSwill costU.S.airlinesseveralbilliondollarsin2012alone. Asthefinancialcrisissubsides,globalmarkettrendsandoveralleconomicconditionswillincreasedemandforsingleaisleaircraft.Asiawillbetheprimarydriverofthisdemand,as the indigenous low-cost carrier markets continue toexpand service to an entire continent of new customers

2010 Year-End Review and ForecastAIA Research Center

S ince2008whenwebegantofeeltheeffectsoftheglobaleconomicslowdown,theaerospaceindustryhassoldieredalong.Eventhoughgrowthrateshavemoderatedabit,overallaerospacesaleshavecontinuedtogrow.As2010comes

toanend,wehaveeveryreasontotakeprideinourindustryandremainconfidentinitsabilitytoemergestrongerthanbefore. Theaerospace industryhasseenyear-over-yeargrowthsince2004,anddespiteachallengingbusinessenvironment,salesareexpectedtohitanewhighof$216.5billionthisyear,withanotherincreasein2011tonearly$220billion.Whilecommercialaircraftsalesslippedabit,thedeclinewasmorethanoffsetbyrobustmilitaryaircraftsales. Lookingforwardto2011,strongergrowthratesforthecommercialsectorareexpectedtoreturnsoonerthanwasforecastjustafewmonthsago.Thereare,ofcourse,severalvariablesloominginthewingsthatcouldeasilyeitherlendatailwindtotherecoveryorbuffetitwithturbulence.Overthelonger-term,therealityisthattherewillprobablybealittleofboth.

©2010AerospaceIndustriesAssociationofAmerica,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

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toair travel.Salesof twinaisle, long-rangeplanes like the777and787arelikelytoimproveinthisregionasairlineslaunchnewnonstoproutes.Anothergrowthcategorylikelyto emerge as the global economy improveswill be cargoaircraft, which are an integral component of internationaltradeandcommerce.

Military Aircraft Sales

The growth trend in military aircraft continued in 2010withsalesof$64.5billion,an8percentincreaseover2009.Militaryaircraftsaleshavenearlydoubledsince2000,butthisbreakneckpaceislikelytoeaseconsiderablyinthecomingyears.AccordingtoDepartmentofDefense(DOD)officials,

the Pentagon’s 2011 base budget at best will be limitedto about 1 percent real growth or less, flat-lining defensesales for the foreseeable future. While national defensehas remained a priority, more austere U.S. procurementbudgets are seenasunavoidable in thenear-years. Facedwithconsiderablepressurefrommultiplefronts,realgrowthinthebudgettoplinemaywellbeunobtainable,andmanyexpect a decrease instead. Because of rapidly increasingpersonnel and operations costs even a nominal top lineincrease would result in a decrease to the procurementaccount.Consequently,U.S.exportsofmilitaryaircraftwillbecomean evenmore important component of businessforU.S.manufacturers.

A I d S l b P d G

225

Aerospace Industry Sales by Product GroupCivil Aircraft Military Aircraft Space Related Products Missiles

$216.5$197.0 $200.2 $214.5 $219.2Total Sales:

$32.5 $31.4 $31.5

$22.2 $23.4

$25.8 $26.9 $26.5

175

200

$45.5 $45.5 $45.1

$29.7 $30.7

$

150

rs

$39.9 $43.4

100

125

Billion

s of Dolla

$52.7$54.5

$59.7 $64.5 $65.8

50

75

$52.6 $48.2 $51.1 $48.2 $50.225

0

3


Space Sales

Spacesectorsalesarelikelytoberelativelyflatthisyear,totaling approximately $45.5 billion. Beyond fiscal year2011, NASA’s year-to-year budget is projected to average2.5 percent growth through fiscal year 2015. Much ofthis growth will come from continued investments in theburgeoningcommercialspacesector.Inaddition,plansforfuturenationalsecurityspaceeffortsarebeingdevelopedaspartoftheDODandtheDirectorofNationalIntelligence’snationalsecurityspacestrategy.Thisstrategyisexpectedtodetailapath forward fornationalsecurityspaceprogramsthat helps maintain critical satellite constellations, whileadvancing U.S. efforts in research and development andsmallersatellites. Thatsaid,theU.S.spaceindustry’smainopportunitiesformoresubstantialgrowthinthecomingyearswilllikelycomefrom international customers. Developing a more diversecustomerbasewillnotonlyhelptheUnitedStatesmaintain

a strong industrial base, but developing space-relatedbusiness opportunities in India, South Korea, the MiddleEast and elsewhere will serve to strengthen relationshipswithstrategicpartners. Withachanging landscapeonCapitolHillandcalls forgreaterfiscaldiscipline,futurebudgetincreasesarefarfromcertain. Consequently, NASA’s important role in Americanjobs and innovation must remain in the forefront of ournationalprioritiessofutureallocationsareseenasthewiseinvestment. Today, nearly 60 nations have a presence in space.Consequently,internationalcooperationinspacehasbecomeanimperative,spurringinitiativessuchasaCombinedSpaceOperationsCenteranddiscussionsonhowtomanagespacetraffic inan increasingly congestedenvironment. Improvedcooperationandcollaborationwithintheinternationalspacecommunity will lead toward a more favorable businessenvironment for all, including the United States, and helpbolstercommercialspaceopportunities.

A I d S l250

Aerospace Industry Sales

214.5216.5

219.2200

150

123.2100

50

00

4


General Aviation Sales

Thegeneralaviationindustrycontinuestofaceachallengingbusinessenvironment.Forthesecondyearinarow,generalaviation sales declined in 2010. The sector has enduredfalling demand, restrictive credit markets and strongcompetition from used aircraft. While the rate of declineslowedconsiderablyin2010,difficultiesremain,particularlyfor the more economically sensitive small to midsize jetmarket.Thedifferenceisthatthelighterendofthebusinessjetmarkethastraditionallybeenmoredependentonthird-party financing, which became prohibitively difficult tosecureafter theglobaleconomybegantofalter.Generallyspeaking,largercabinbusinessjetsaredoingmuchbetter.Jet makers are particularly pushing larger models in theMiddle East where the preference is for private jets asopposedtocharteredaircraft.Overall,businessjetdeliveriesarenotexpectedtoimproveuntil2012.

Orders & Backlog

Theaerospaceindustryrecorded$195.7billioninordersin2010, a16.4percent increaseover2009.This return topositive growth is a welcome change after two years ofdecline. Civil aircraft and parts orders were particularlyrobust,jumpingtoanestimated$84.9billion,a65percentyear-over-yearincrease.Theimprovementinorderssuggestthatdemandforairtravelisincreasingandglobalbusinessconditionslikecreditavailability,arebecomingmoreconducivetoaircraftpurchases The projected end-of-year backlog for 2010 is $421.5billion,aslightimprovementfromthepreviousyear.Whilegrowth has flattened, the backlog remains more thandoublethelevelrecordedattheendof2004,providingtheaerospaceindustrywithacomfortablecushiononwhichtorideoutthechallengingbusinessenvironment.Beyondthesize of thebacklog, its composition also lends ameasureofsecuritytotheaerospaceindustry.Forexample,in2000,NorthAmericaconstituted64percentofBoeing’sbacklog,while now the market represents 22 percent. The firm’sbacklog is now much less concentrated, spreading acrossAsian, European, and North American markets, reducingdependencyonanyonemarket.

Shi O d d B kl

421 538

450

Shipments, Orders, and BacklogShipments Orders Backlog

Backlog2008 Peak

402.0421.538

350

400

2008 Peak

271.2

300

llars 2007 Peak

195.665200

250

Billion

s of Dol

Shipments

Orders

193.4

100

150

B Shipments

50

0

5


Exports

ExportsofaerospaceproductsremainoneofthemostvitalsourcesofbusinessfortheU.S.industry.However,movingin-step with the faltering global economy, U.S. exports ofaerospace products have slipped in recent years. In 2010,exports are expected to reach more than $80.5 billion,off slightly from the previous year. A drop in civil aircraftexportsisresponsiblefortheoveralldecrease,asnumerousfactorscontinuetoputdownwardpressureoninternationalsales. However, the falling civil sales were nearly negatedby a strong increase in U.S. exports of military aerospaceproducts. Looking at the components within the militaryexportsector,thebestperformersincludedhelicoptersales,whichrose76.0percent,aswellasa23.4percentincreaseintheexportsofmissiles,rocketsandparts.Militaryaircraftengineexportsfell28.8percent.

Imports

U.S.aerospace importsareexpected to jumpbynearly10percentin2010,ledbystrongshowingsofthespacecraft,missiles, rockets and parts segment, which increased bynearly50percent,andtheaircraftandenginepartscategory,whichwasupby14.3percent. In total, 96 countries exported to the United States in2010. The majority of U.S. aerospace imports come fromFrance,followedbyCanadaandtheUK.JapanandGermanyroundedoutthetop-fiveaerospaceimporterstotheUnitedStates.

A F i T d

97.2100

Aerospace Foreign TradeExports Imports Surplus 2007 Peak

97.2

81.2

80.580

902010 Exports

80.5

2009 Exports81.2

53.360

70

ars

2010 Surplus53.3

2007 Peak60.6

40

50

Billion

s of Dolla

27.1

20

30

40B

2010 Imports27.1

25.1

10

202009 Imports

25.1

0

6


Employment

Aerospace employment is closely tied to productionand sales. Industry growth as measured by these metricshasslowedandareductionintheaerospaceworkforcehasfollowed.Overallaerospaceemploymentisexpectedtodropbythreepercentin2010,fallingto624,200workers.Despitethedecline,whenviewedwithinthecontextofthecurrent

business environment and compared to the employmentsituationofotherindustrialsectors,theaerospaceworkforceisholdingitsown.Evenso,thelastyear’sprojectedhiringrequirements have not matched up with hiring trends formajorprograms.Looking forward,aerospaceemploymentmay be leveling off as the third quarter of 2010 returnedthefirstpositivequarterlychangeintwoyears,adding1,400newpositions.

A E l

900

Aerospace EmploymentAircraft, Engines and Parts Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles & Parts Search,Detection & Navigation Instruments

700

800

2010 Total:

145.3

600

700

ands

)

624.2

75.4

400

500

loyees

(Tho

usa

403 5200

300

Emp

403.5

100

200

0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Summary and Outlook

Civilaircraftsalesdippedin2010,butthereturntogrowthin the near-term looks promising. One reason for this isjetlinersareapopularassetfromafinancialstandpoint,astheyofferarelativelysecureinvestmentinthestilluncertainglobal financial markets. New civil aircraft have also beenin demand because of high fuel prices, which increasesthe incentive to replaceolder equipment. Better numbersin 2011 are anticipated, as single aisle sales are expectedtoremainstrongandBoeingbegins787deliveries.Further,the larger thanexpectedordersreceivedthisyearandtheannouncedproductionrateincreasessuggesttheremaybeasmallincreaseincommercialaircraftsalesin2011. The military market continues to benefit from recorddefense spendingand strongexportdemand.Whilefiscalrestraints will pressure the U.S. defense budget over thenext fewyears, thefiscal2011and2012budgets still looksubstantial and that means high output through 2014, atleast. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of military aircraft regainedsome ground lost in 2009 and export orders look veryhealthy.TheSaudiF-15,UH-60,AH-64andAH-6buymeanstensofbillions inbusiness forU.S.primesandcontractors.TheverylargeandgrowingIndianmarketisopeninguptotheU.S.aswell,withthreesignificantpurchases–C-130Js,P-8s,andC-17s–thatcouldbefollowedbyanF-16orF/A-18buy.

However, challenges are on the horizon. While aircraftprocurementwill continue to consume the largest shareofDODinvestment,thefederalbudgetcrisiswilllikelyconstrainadequacyofaircraftfunding.Further,effortstocutthedefensebudgetandeliminateprogramsruntheriskcreatinggreatereconomic turmoil as well as undermining national security.While AIA supports the overall goals of DOD’s efficiencyinitiative – and we’re engaged in a dialogue to advancethosegoals– the inappropriate translationof thegoals intopolicyandregulationisaconcern.Asaresult,AIAwillmounta campaign that educates and informs the public of theindustry’ssignificanceinAmericanlifeandeconomicvitality. Only modest growth is expected in space revenuesover the next five years, with commercial orders seen asaccounting for a growing share as government ordersdecline. Commercial space sales will be bolstered by theneedformanysatelliteservicesprovidersaroundtheworldtoreplaceagingspacecraftincomingyears. Inconclusion,theaerospaceindustrybookeditsseventhyear of record sales in 2010 and prospects are good foranother positive year in 2011. Looming discussions overhowtotrimthenation’sdeficitareominouscloudsoveralargeportionoftheindustry’sfederalsalesactivity.However,onbalance,as theeconomy recovers, thecivil-sideof theindustrywillbenefit as thepent-updemand fornew, fuelefficientaircraftisfulfilled.

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TABLE ITABLE I

AEROSPACE INDUSTRY SALES BY PRODUCT GROUP

Calendar Years 1997-2011

Aircraft RelatedTotalSales

AircraftMissiles Space

RelatedProducts &

ServicesTotalYear

Civil Military

CURRENT DOLLARS (billions)

ServicesTotal Civil Military


131 58 70 80 37 43 33 38 8 04 30 81 21 931997 131.58 70.80 37.43 33.38 8.04 30.81 21.93147.99 83.95 49.68 34.28 7.73 31.65 24.67153 71 88 73 52 93 35 80 8 83 30 53 25 62

19981997

1999 153.71 88.73 52.93 35.80 8.83 30.53 25.62144.74 81.61 47.58 34.03 9.30 29.71 24.12151 63 86 47 51 26 35 22 10 39 29 50 25 27

20001999

2001 151.63 86.47 51.26 35.22 10.39 29.50 25.27

152 35 79 49 41 34 38 15 12 85 34 62 25 39

2001

2002 152.35 79.49 41.34 38.15 12.85 34.62 25.39146.03 72.84 32.44 40.40 13.49 35.86 23.84155 72 79 13 32 52 46 61 17 46 35 93 23 202004

20022003

155.72 79.13 32.52 46.61 17.46 35.93 23.20167.27 86.66 37.16 49.50 18.44 36.66 25.51182 80 98 28 45 85 52 44 20 26 37 60 26 65

20052006

2004

182.80 98.28 45.85 52.44 20.26 37.60 26.65

197.01 105.24 52.55 52.69 22.19 39.90 29.68

2006

2007 197.01 105.24 52.55 52.69 22.19 39.90 29.68200.24 102.72 48.18 54.53 23.43 43.37 30.72214.52 110.83 51.12 59.71 25.77 45.47 32.45

200720082009 214.52 110.83 51.12 59.71 25.77 45.47 32.45

216.46 112.62 48.15 64.47 26.91 45.52 31.40219 16 116 02 50 17 65 84 26 46 45 14 31 542011(E)

20092010(P)

219.16 116.02 50.17 65.84 26.46 45.14 31.54

CONSTANT DOLLARS a (billions)

2011(E)

CONSTANT DOLLARS (billions)

136.55 73.48 38.84 34.64 8.34 31.98 22.761997 136.55 73.48 38.84 34.64 8.34 31.98 22.76152.89 86.73 51.32 35.41 7.99 32.69 25.48157.53 90.94 54.25 36.69 9.04 31.29 26.25

199719981999 157.53 90.94 54.25 36.69 9.04 31.29 26.25

144.74 81.61 47.58 34.03 9.30 29.71 24.12147.73 84.25 49.94 34.31 10.12 28.74 24.62

199920002001 147.73 84.25 49.94 34.31 10.12 28.74 24.62

145.98 76.16 39.61 36.55 12.31 33.18 24.33

2001

2002136.34 68.01 30.29 37.72 12.59 33.48 22.26141.07 71.68 29.46 42.22 15.81 32.55 21.02

20032004

145.95 75.62 32.43 43.19 16.09 31.99 22.26153.96 82.78 38.62 44.16 17.06 31.67 22.452006

2005153.96 82.78 38.62 44.16 17.06 31.67 22.45

160.94 85.97 42.93 43.04 18.13 32.59 24.25

2006

2007157.72 80.90 37.95 42.95 18.46 34.16 24.20164.93 85.21 39.30 45.90 19.81 34.95 24.952009

2008

164.72 85.70 36.64 49.06 20.48 34.64 23.89163.54 86.57 37.44 49.13 19.75 33.69 23.532011(E)

2010(P)

Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports, The Budget of the United States Government,d d t f th N ti l A ti d S Ad i i t ti (NASA) d th D t t f C

( )

and data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Departments of Commerceand Defense.

a. Based on AIA's aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).E. Estimate.E. Estimate.P. Preliminary.

Table I

Aerospace Industry Sales by Product GroupCalendar Years 1997-2011

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Table II

Aerospace Industry Sales by CustomerCalendar Years 1997 - 2011

TABLE IITABLE II

AEROSPACE INDUSTRY SALES BY CUSTOMER

Calendar Years 1997-2011

Aerospace Products and ServicesRelated

Products & Department NASA OtherTOTALSALES

Aerospace Products and Services

YearServicesTotal Department

of Defense and otherAgencies

Other Customers

SALES


131.58 109.65 43.70 12.75 53.20 21.93147 99 123 33 42 94 13 34 67 05 24 67

19971998 147.99 123.33 42.94 13.34 67.05 24.67

153.71 128.09 45.70 13.40 68.99 25.62144 74 120 62 47 51 13 38 59 73 24 12

199819992000 144.74 120.62 47.51 13.38 59.73 24.12

151.63 126.36 50.12 14.48 61.76 25.2720002001

152.35 126.96 57.70 16.39 52.87 25.39146.63 122.19 64.01 15.52 42.66 24.442003

2002146.63 122.19 64.01 15.52 42.66 24.44155.72 132.52 71.95 17.21 43.36 23.20167.27 141.76 75.63 17.25 48.89 25.51

20042003

2005(a) 167.27 141.76 75.63 17.25 48.89 25.51182.80 156.15 77.63 17.22 61.29 26.652006

2005(a)

197.01 167.33 80.66 18.65 68.01 29.68200.24 169.52 84.86 21.31 63.35 30.72

20072008

214.52 182.06 95.38 22.47 64.21 32.45216.46 185.06 102.10 22.06 60.90 31.40

20092010(P)

219.16 187.62 103.61 21.27 62.74 31.54

b

2011(E)

CONSTANT DOLLARS b (billions)

136 55 113 79 45 35 13 23 55 21 22 761997 136.55 113.79 45.35 13.23 55.21 22.76152.89 127.41 44.36 13.78 69.27 25.48157 53 131 27 46 84 13 73 70 70 26 25

199719981999 157.53 131.27 46.84 13.73 70.70 26.25

144.74 120.62 47.51 13.38 59.73 24.12147 73 123 11 48 83 14 11 60 17 24 62

20002001

1999

147.73 123.11 48.83 14.11 60.17 24.62

145 98 121 65 55 29 15 70 50 66 24 33

2001

2002 145.98 121.65 55.29 15.70 50.66 24.33136.90 114.08 59.76 14.49 39.83 22.82141 07 120 05 65 18 15 59 39 28 21 02

200220032004 141.07 120.05 65.18 15.59 39.28 21.02

145.95 123.70 65.99 15.05 42.66 22.26153 96 131 51 65 39 14 51 51 62 22 45

2004

20062005(a)

153.96 131.51 65.39 14.51 51.62 22.45

160.94 136.69 65.89 15.24 55.56 24.25

2006

2007157.72 133.52 66.84 16.78 49.90 24.20164.93 139.97 73.33 17.28 49.37 24.95

20082009 6 93 39 9 3 33 8 9 3 95

164.72 140.83 77.69 16.79 46.34 23.89163.54 140.01 77.31 15.87 46.82 23.532011(E)

2010(P)009

63 5 0 0 3 5 8 6 8 3 53

Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government,

0 ( )

and data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Departments of Commerceand Defense.

a. Beginning in 2005, NASA sales were reported separately from other agencies. b. Based on AIA's aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).b. Based on AIA s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).E. Estimate.P. Preliminary.P. Preliminary.

10


Table III

Shipments, Orders, and Backlog:Aircraft & Parts and Search & Navigation Equipment

Calendar Years 2006-2010(Millions of Dollars)

TABLE IIITABLE III

SHIPMENTS, ORDERS, AND BACKLOG:Aircraft & Parts and Search & Navigation Equipment

As of End-of-Year 1985-2010

(Millions of Dollars)

Year Shipments Orders Backlog

1985 $91,337 $100,889 $128,216$ , $ , $ ,1986 101,832 107,993 134,3771987 103,590 114,835 145,6221987 103,590 114,835 145,6221988 107,955 137,443 175,1101989 110,603 153,430 217,9371989 110,603 153,430 217,937

1990 125,822 150,329 242,4441990 125,822 150,329 242,4441991(1) 132,182 132,645 242,9071992 137,114 118,369 220,2331992 137,114 118,369 220,2331993 123,850 100,815 197,1981994 112,511 98,621 183,3081994 112,511 98,621 183,308

1995 110 928 115 279 187 6591995 110,928 115,279 187,6591996 110,840 134,142 210,9611997 132 787 143 071 221 2451997 132,787 143,071 221,2451998 150,077 138,407 209,5751999 152 728 140 329 197 1761999 152,728 140,329 197,176

2000 144 740 165 994 218 4302000 144,740 165,994 218,4302001 153,571 146,820 211,6792002 140 889 129 620 200 4102002 140,889 129,620 200,4102003 135,955 133,063 197,5182004 145 305 148 995 201 2082004 145,305 148,995 201,208

2005 152 081 184 200 233 3272005 152,081 184,200 233,3272006 165,652 215,028 282,7032007 203 612 347 603 426 6942007 203,612 347,603 426,6942008 205,959 247,346 468,0812009 212 339 163 531 419 2732009 212,339 163,531 419,2732010(P) 193,400 195,665 421,538

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders," and AIA estimates.

Note: Not seasonally adjusted; includes aircraft engine and parts manufacturing.

1 Data reported prior to 1992 uses previous industrial classification system and equals aircraft1. Data reported prior to 1992 uses previous industrial classification system, and equals aircraft,missiles, and space vehicles manufacturing sectors.

P PreliminaryP. Preliminary.

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Table IV

U.S. Civil Transport Aircraft BacklogTABLE IVTABLE IV

U.S. CIVIL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT BACKLOG

2006 2007 2008 2009 20101

TOTAL BACKLOG:Number of Aircraft …………… 2,451 3,427 3,714 3,375 3,401u be o c a , 5 3, 3, 3,3 5 3, 0Value (in millions) …………… $184,610 $270,728 $296,217 $253,932 $258,717

Boeing:Boeing:B-737 ............................... 1,560 2,076 2,270 2,076 2,127B 747 116 125 114 108 109B-747 ............................... 116 125 114 108 109B-767 ............................... 28 52 70 59 53B 777 299 357 350 281 265B-777 ............................... 299 357 350 281 265B-787 ............................... 448 817 910 851 847

P t f T t l B kl

Foreign Order BacklogPercent of Total Backlog:

Number of Aircraft ……… 70.6% 75.3% 77.8% 79.5% 77.5%V l 75 6% 78 8% 81 1% 82 3% 81 1%Value ……………………… 75.6% 78.8% 81.1% 82.3% 81.1%

Number of Aircraft 1 730 2 581 2 891 2 682 2 635Number of Aircraft …………… 1,730 2,581 2,891 2,682 2,635Value (in millions) ……………… $139,554 $213,418 $240,092 $209,011 $209,865

Boeing:B-737 ............................... 1,008 1,493 1,703 1,605 1,588B 737 ............................... 1,008 1,493 1,703 1,605 1,588B-747 ............................... 85 101 97 94 95B-767 ............................... 27 24 42 34 33B-767 ............................... 27 24 42 34 33B-777 ............................... 233 284 271 230 229B-787 377 679 778 719 690B-787 ............................... 377 679 778 719 690

Domestic Order BacklogPercent of Total Backlog:

Number of Aircraft 29 4% 24 7% 22 2% 20 5% 22 5%

g

Number of Aircraft ……… 29.4% 24.7% 22.2% 20.5% 22.5%Value ……………………… 24.4% 21.2% 18.9% 17.7% 18.9%

Number of Aircraft …………… 721 846 823 693 766Value (in millions) …………… $45,055 $57,310 $56,124 $44,921 $48,852Value (in millions) …………… $45,055 $57,310 $56,124 $44,921 $48,852

Boeing:B 3 2 83 6 4 1 39B-737 ............................... 552 583 567 471 539B-747 ............................... 31 24 17 14 14B-767 ............................... 1 28 28 25 20B-777 ............................... 66 73 79 51 36B-787 ............................... 71 138 132 132 157

S A I d t i A i ti b d tSource: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports.

1. As of end of third quarter.1. As of end of third quarter.

12


Table V

Civil Aircraft ShipmentsCalendar Years 1997-2011

TABLE VTABLE V

CIVIL AIRCRAFT SHIPMENTSCalendar Years 1997-2011

Transport GeneralYear TOTAL TransportAircraft Helicopters General

Aviation

NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT SHIPPED

1997 2,269 374 346 1,5491998 3 122 559 363 2 2001998 3,122 559 363 2,2001999 3,485 620 361 2,5042000 3 794 485 493 2 8162000 3,794 485 493 2,8162001 3,575 526 415 2,6342002 2 904 379 318 2 2072002 2,904 379 318 2,2072003 2,935 281 517 2,1372004 3,445 285 805 2,3552005 4,094 290 947 2,8572006 4 443 398 898 3 1472006 4,443 398 898 3,1472007 4,729 441 1,009 3,2792008 4 538 375 1 084 3 0792008 4,538 375 1,084 3,0792009 2,653 502 564 1,5872010(P) 2 117 461 392 1 2642010(P) 2,117 461 392 1,2642011(E) 1,997 466 373 1,158

VALUE (millions of dollars)

1997 31,753 26,929 231 4,5931998 41 676 35 663 252 5 7611998 41,676 35,663 252 5,7611999 46,201 38,171 187 7,8432000 39 155 30 327 270 8 5582000 39,155 30,327 270 8,5582001 43,043 34,155 247 8,6412002 35 450 27 574 157 7 7192002 35,450 27,574 157 7,7192003 27,833 21,033 366 6,4342004 27 815 20 484 515 6 8162004 27,815 20,484 515 6,8162005 31,424 21,941 816 8,6672006 37,085 25,875 843 10,3672007 42,431 29,160 1,330 11,9412008 38,910 24,076 1,486 13,3482009 39,884 29,695 1,107 9,0822010(P) 36,138 27,350 1,043 7,7452011(E) 36,303 27,642 1,037 7,624( ) , , , ,

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports, data from the General AviationManufacturers Association (GAMA) and AIA estimates.

E EstimateE. Estimate.P. Preliminary.

13


Table VI

Aerospace Balance of TradeCalendar Years 2006-2010


TABLE VITABLE VI

AEROSPACE BALANCE OF TRADE

Calendar Years 2006-2010Calendar Years 2006 2010


2006 2007 2008 2009 a


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a

BALANCE OF TRADE:Current Dollars $54,809 $60,614 $57,389 $56,034 $53,307Current Dollars $54,809 $60,614 $57,389 $56,034 $53,307Constant Dollars 1 46,163 49,515 45,201 43,080 40,565

AEROSPACE EXPORTS:Current Dollars $85,262 $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $80,540Constant Dollars 1 71,812 79,421 74,889 62,402 61,288Constant Dollars 71,812 79,421 74,889 62,402 61,288

AEROSPACE IMPORTS:AEROSPACE IMPORTS:Current Dollars $30,453 $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $27,233C t t D ll 1 25 649 29 906 29 688 19 322 20 724Constant Dollars 1 25,649 29,906 29,688 19,322 20,724

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.

Note: Trade balances may not equal the difference between exports and imports due to roundingNote: Trade balances may not equal the difference between exports and imports due to rounding.

1. Based on AIA's aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).a. Preliminary.

14


Table VII

U.S. Imports of Aerospace ProductsCalendar Years 2006-2010


TABLE VIITABLE VII

U.S. IMPORTS OF AEROSPACE PRODUCTS



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a


2006 2007 2008 2009

TOTAL IMPORTS $30 453 $36 610 $37 694 $25 132 $27 233

2010a

TOTAL IMPORTS $30,453 $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $27,233

Aircraft ................................ 10,775 13,296 12,480 9,299 9,321

Milit 2 1 12 3 51 5 0 4 16 9Military ………………… 2.1 12.3 51.5 0.4 16.9

Civil 10 772 13 284 12 428 9 299 9 304Civil .............................. 10,772 13,284 12,428 9,299 9,304Transports …………… 4,946 6,916 6,460 4,955 3,407G l A i ti 3 986 4 532 4 066 2 337 2 119General Aviation …… 3,986 4,532 4,066 2,337 2,119Helicopters …………… 682 889 1,143 833 757pOther1………………… 1,159 947 758 1,173 3,022

Aircraft Engines .................. 3,739 3,880 4,328 3,752 3,875

Turbine ………………… 3,650 3,812 4,195 3,616 3,770Piston …………………… 90 69 133 136 105Piston …………………… 90 69 133 136 105

Aircraft and Engine Parts 15 055 18 528 19 989 11 383 13 015Aircraft and Engine Parts ... 15,055 18,528 19,989 11,383 13,015

Spacecraft MissilesSpacecraft, Missiles,Rockets, and Parts .......... 884 905 896 698 1,023

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.p , p

Notes: Import data include non-military aircraft parts and aerospace products previously exported from the United States.Totals may not equal sum of terms due to roundingTotals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding.

1. Includes used aircraft, gliders, balloons, and airships.a. Preliminary.

15


Table VIII

Exports of U.S. Aerospace ProductsCalendar Years 2006-2010


TABLE VIIITABLE VIII

EXPORTS OF U.S. AEROSPACE PRODUCTS



2006 2007 2008 2009 a


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a

$ $ $ $ $TOTAL EXPORTS $85,262 $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $80,540

TOTAL CIVIL EXPORTS $71 857 $83 979 $82 264 $70 500 $69 317TOTAL CIVIL EXPORTS $71,857 $83,979 $82,264 $70,500 $69,317

Complete Aircraft 39 461 47 559 42 422 (D) (D)Complete Aircraft ......................... 39,461 47,559 42,422 (D) (D)Transports ……………………… 32,897 40,297 33,326General Aviation 3 349 3 911 4 818General Aviation ……………… 3,349 3,911 4,818Helicopters …………………… 671 1,117 948Used Aircraft 2 511 2 197 3 284Used Aircraft …………………… 2,511 2,197 3,284Other Aircraft ………………… 33 37 46

Aircraft Engines ............................ 6,202 7,127 8,505Turbine ………………………… 6,032 6,953 8,334Turbine ………………………… 6,032 6,953 8,334Piston …………………………… 170 174 171

Aircraft & Engine Parts,Including Spares ....................... 25,588 28,469 30,777Including Spares ....................... 25,588 28,469 30,777

Missiles, Rockets, & Parts ............ 28 13 25

Spacecraft, Satellites, & Parts ...... 578 811 535

TOTAL MILITARY EXPORTS $13,405 $13,246 $12,819 $10,666 $11,223

Complete Aircraft ......................... 4,464 4,174 4,520 2,325 2,043Transports ……………………… 375 789 1,548 276 199Transports ……………………… 375 789 1,548 276 199Helicopters …………………… 618 791 300 520 915Fighters & Fighter Bombers … 3,351 2,303 1,930 1,208 498Fighters & Fighter Bombers … 3,351 2,303 1,930 1,208 498Used Aircraft …………………… 20 119 590 93 55Other Aircraft ………………… 101 172 152 228 377Other Aircraft ………………… 101 172 152 228 377

Aircraft Engines ............................ 414 414 423 517 368gTurbine ………………………… 312 277 344 381 284Piston …………………………… 102 137 80 137 84Piston …………………………… 102 137 80 137 84

Aircraft and Engine Parts,Including Spares ....................... 6,936 7,185 6,311 6,126 6,820

Missiles Rockets & Parts 1 452 1 359 1 425 1 509 1 862Missiles, Rockets, & Parts ............ 1,452 1,359 1,425 1,509 1,862

Spacecraft Satellites & Parts 139 114 139 189 129Spacecraft, Satellites, & Parts ...... 139 114 139 189 129

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding.

a. Preliminary.D. Civil aerospace export data suppressed by U.S. Census Bureau beginning first quarter 2009. p p pp y g g q

16


Table IX

Aerospace Related EmploymentCalendar Years 2002-2010

TABLE IXTABLE IXAEROSPACE RELATED EMPLOYMENT

Calendar Years 2002-2010Calendar Years 2002-2010

Aircraft Engines and Parts

Oth Ai ft

Search,Detection, &

Aircraft, Engines, and Parts

P i d Total Guided Missiles,S V hi lAi ft Other Aircraft

Parts &E i t

Detection, &NavigationInstruments

Period TotalEmployment Space Vehicles,

& PartsAircraft

Engines &E i P t

AircraftTotalEquipment Instruments

All W k (000' )

Engine Parts

2002 618 4 396 7 220 2 87 9 88 6 73 6 148 1

All Workers (000's)2002 618.4 396.7 220.2 87.9 88.6 73.6 148.12003 587.1 371.9 209.1 81.3 81.5 70.2 145.02004 592 0 369 9 207 2 79 2 83 5 71 6 150 52004 592.0 369.9 207.2 79.2 83.5 71.6 150.5

2005 611 7 380 0 211 3 81 9 86 8 75 1 156 62005 611.7 380.0 211.3 81.9 86.8 75.1 156.62006 631.8 398.5 221.7 84.4 92.4 75.5 157.72007 646 8 413 6 230 2 85 3 98 1 75 5 157 62007 646.8 413.6 230.2 85.3 98.1 75.5 157.6

2008 659 8 428 9 237 4 87 2 104 3 77 6 153 32008 659.8 428.9 237.4 87.2 104.3 77.6 153.32009 644.2 414.5 234.9 82.2 97.4 78.3 151.42010(P) 624 2 403 5 228 6 82 1 92 8 75 4 145 32010(P) 624.2 403.5 228.6 82.1 92.8 75.4 145.3

3Q09 639 2 408 1 232 2 80 7 95 2 78 9 152 13Q09 639.2 408.1 232.2 80.7 95.2 78.9 152.14Q09 629.7 404.4 231.5 79.5 93.4 77.1 148.31Q10 625 5 403 2 229 5 81 7 92 1 76 1 146 11Q10 625.5 403.2 229.5 81.7 92.1 76.1 146.12Q10 622.9 402.0 227.0 82.2 92.8 75.5 145.33Q10 624.3 405.3 229.4 82.4 93.5 74.7 144.3

Production Workers (000's)2002 263.3 203.7 97.2 49.9 56.6 15.7 43.9

Production Workers (000's)2002 263.3 203.7 97.2 49.9 56.6 15.7 43.92003 249.5 189.3 92.8 45.4 51.1 15.1 45.12004 244 2 185 4 89 4 43 8 52 2 12 9 45 92004 244.2 185.4 89.4 43.8 52.2 12.9 45.9

2005 270 0 191 9 90 4 45 5 56 0 20 9 57 22005 270.0 191.9 90.4 45.5 56.0 20.9 57.22006 326.9 214.1 99.9 54.1 60.1 39.3 73.52007 359 5 242 6 111 2 63 1 68 3 47 2 69 72007 359.5 242.6 111.2 63.1 68.3 47.2 69.7

2008(a) 365 0 N/A 112 1 D 75 3 N/A 63 9 (b)2008(a) 365.0 N/A 112.1 D 75.3 N/A 63.9 (b)2009 355.3 N/A 112.5 D 71.1 N/A 62.4 (b)2010(P) 278 3 N/A 111 5 D D N/A 59 1 (b)2010(P) 278.3 N/A 111.5 D D N/A 59.1 (b)

3Q09 289 0 N/A 110 9 D 68 6 N/A D3Q09 289.0 N/A 110.9 D 68.6 N/A D4Q09 285.6 N/A 112.3 D D N/A D1Q10 282 0 N/A 112 4 D D N/A D1Q10 282.0 N/A 112.4 D D N/A D2Q10 277.0 N/A 110.6 D D N/A D3Q10 276 0 N/A 111 4 D D N/A D3Q10 276.0 N/A 111.4 D D N/A D

Source: Aerospace Industries Association based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

a. Starting in 2008, quarterly total for production workers does not include: Search, Detection, and Navigation Instruments.g q y p gb. AIA estimate (series discontinued by BLS).D. Series discontinued by BLS.yP. Preliminary.

17


Table X

Net Profit After TaxesCalendar Years 1986-2010

TABLE XTABLE XNET PROFIT AFTER TAXES


ALL MANUFACTURING

Year

AEROSPACE INDUSTRY PROFITS ALL MANUFACTURINGCORPORATIONS

YearMillions of

DollarsAs a Percent of: Profits as a Percent of:

Sales Assets Equity Sales Assets Equity

1986 3 093 2 8 3 1 9 4 3 7 4 2 9 5

Dollars

1986 3,093 2.8 3.1 9.4 3.7 4.2 9.51987 4,582 4.1 4.4 14.6 4.9 5.6 12.81988 4 883 4 3 4 4 14 9 6 0 6 9 16 21988 4,883 4.3 4.4 14.9 6.0 6.9 16.21989 3,866 3.3 3.3 10.7 5.0 5.6 13.71990 4 487 3 4 3 4 11 5 4 0 4 3 10 71990 4,487 3.4 3.4 11.5 4.0 4.3 10.7

1991 2 484(a) 1 8 1 9 6 1 2 5 2 6 6 41991 2,484(a) 1.8 1.9 6.1 2.5 2.6 6.41992 (1,836) (1.4) (1.2) (5.2) 1.0 1.0 2.61993 4 621 3 6 3 5 13 2 2 8 2 9 8 11993 4,621 3.6 3.5 13.2 2.8 2.9 8.11994 5,655 4.7 4.3 14.8 5.4 5.8 15.61995 4 633 3 8 3 5 11 1 5 7 6 2 16 21995 4,633 3.8 3.5 11.1 5.7 6.2 16.2

1996 7 150 5 6 5 1 17 1 6 0 6 5 16 81996 7,150 5.6 5.1 17.1 6.0 6.5 16.81997 7,221 5.2 4.8 17.3 6.2 6.6 16.61998 7 701 5 0 4 8 18 0 6 0 6 1 15 71998 7,701 5.0 4.8 18.0 6.0 6.1 15.71999 10,214(b) 6.5 6.2 21.8 6.2 6.1 16.52000 7 260 4 7 4 3 14 2 6 1 5 9 15 22000 7,260 4.7 4.3 14.2 6.1 5.9 15.2

2001 6,565 3.9 3.6 11.6 0.8 0.8 1.92001 6,565 3.9 3.6 11.6 0.8 0.8 1.92002 6,547(c) 4.1 3.7 11.7 3.3 2.9 7.72003 7,243 4.2 3.3 12.3 5.4 4.7 12.22003 7,243 4.2 3.3 12.3 5.4 4.7 12.22004 9,504 5.2 4.0 14.3 7.1 6.5 15.92005 12,573 6.4 4.7 16.8 7.4 6.9 16.42005 12,573 6.4 4.7 16.8 7.4 6.9 16.4

2006 14,106 6.7 5.1 18.4 8.1 7.6 17.5,2007 18,715 8.2 6.7 24.5 7.3 6.7 15.22008 14,568 6.1 4.7 18.6 4.2 3.8 8.9008 ,568 6 8 6 3 8 8 92009 16,344 6.8 5.2 26.6 5.7 4.3 10.42010(P) 15,920 6.8 4.9 23.3 8.4 6.6 15.32010(P) 15,920 6.8 4.9 23.3 8.4 6.6 15.3

Source: Bureau of the Census, Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporationsand AIA estimates.

a Reflects unusually large non-operating expenses totaling $3 4 billion and $8 7 billion in 1991 and 1992 respectivelya. Reflects unusually large non-operating expenses totaling $3.4 billion and $8.7 billion in 1991 and 1992, respectively,due to restructuring charges and the implementation of a change in accounting for future retirement benefit costs.

b Includes non-operating income (less interest expense) totaling $4 4 billionb. Includes non-operating income (less interest expense) totaling $4.4 billion.c. Includes non-operating expenses (less interest expense) totaling $3.5 billion.P PreliminaryP. Preliminary.( ) Denotes net loss.

civil arcaftsleasmaylrtslpgcanroo · civil aircraft sales. aia’s civil aerospace category...

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