Submitted to: Submitted by:

Prof Ajit Parulekar Group 8AGoa Inst. Of Mgmt. Pritam Patnaik (43)Ribandar, Goa Radhika kayal (44)

Rahul Batta (45) Rahul Singh (46) Richa Ahuja (47) Ramesh Jain (48)

CONTENTS

Page

1. INTRODUCTION 3

2. MAJOR PLAYERS 5

3. MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS 6

4. PORTER’S FIVE FORCE ANALYSIS 12

5. THE SWOT ANALYSIS FOR FIAT 15

6. FUTURE OF THE INDUSTRY 19

7. PROJECTIONS FOR THE INDUSTRY 23

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 GENESIS / HISTORY

The birth of civil aviation in India began happened on Feb 18, 1911 when Henri Piquet flew a Humber biplane. In 1932, JRD Tata, a visionary launches India’s first scheduled airline, Tata Airline and also piloted its first innaugral fight. In early 1948, a joint sector company, Air India International Ltd. was established by the Government of India and Air India (earlier Tata Airline) with a capital of Rs 2 crore and a fleet of three Lockheed constellation aircraft. The joint venture was headed by J.R.D. Tata.After the Second World War as many as eleven private domestic airlines operated in India. The supply-demand was not in balance as the Indian aviation market was still in a fledgling state. Many of these airlines were making heavy losses as a result of which the government decided to nationalise the airlines by forming one domestic carrier and one international flag carrier. In 1953 Air-India International (name truncated to Air-India in 1962) became a public sector corporation along with Indian Airlines Corporation (catering to domestic and regional routes). Eight erstwhile private airlines were merged to form Indian Airlines Corp., namely Deccan Airways, Bharat Airways, Air India, Himalayan Aviation, Kalinga Airlines, Indian National Airways, Air Services of India and Air-Services India. The fleet was fairly big consisting of 73 DC-3 Dakotas, 12 Vikings, 3 DC-4s and some other smaller aircraft. (*)(Source :(*) www.knowindia.net)

1.2 TODAY

There has been a marked change in the civil aviation scenery in India. Whereas prior to 1992 when the two public sector airlines, namely Air-India and Indian Airlines enjoyed a monopoly in the domestic sector, today a dozen airlines are competing for a market share. The Indian civil aviation industry is expanding by leaps and bounds. A slew of low-cost airlines is operating or will commence operations during the current year. India's main airports are beginning to face capacity constraints and are in the process of being modernized. Indian airlines have lately placed a record number of aircraft orders. As an example, ATR received firm orders for 90 new aircraft in 2005 of which India's (Kingfisher Airlines and Air Deccan) share was 55 per cent.

1.3 INDIAN AIRPORTS

A government controlled body AAI (Airports Authority of India) manages 127 airports in the country comprising 15 international airports, 7 restricted international airports, 80 domestic airports and 25 civil enclaves at defence airfields. Indian airports handled 51.9 million domestic, 22.4 million international passengers and 1.4 million tons of cargo in the year ended March 2006. projected traffic for 2012 is 130 million passengers.(Source : PPT by Exec Dir (AAI) at Airport forum in Dubai)

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1.4 INFRASTRUCTURE

The government of India has recognised the need to improve the aviation infrastructure in the country. Airports account for 40 per cent of India's trade by value and 95 per cent of international travel to and from India takes place through this mode. According to estimates, the present infrastructure can support a 20 per cent growth in passenger traffic and 10 per cent growth in cargo traffic. The ministry of civil aviation estimates that there is a need for an investment of Rs 260 - Rs 360 billion . The restructuring of the first phase of Delhi airport is expected to be completed by 2009 at a cost of Rs 1.9 billion. Expansion and upgradation of the current facility at Mumbai is already under way. Work has started on a new international airport at Bangalore. Apart from strengthening of the Hyderabad runway at a cost of Rs 700 million, a new international airport is also being planned at a cost of Rs 13 billion. The government has also decided to modernise 25 airports in non-metro cities. Improvement of another 55 airports is also on the anvil.(Source : icfdc.com)

1.5 FDI

Forty nine per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) is permitted in financing airport infrastructure as well as in airport ground handling. The government has recently increased FDI from 40 per cent to 49 per cent in domestic air carriers. However foreign airlines are not permitted to pick up a stake directly or indirectly. Non-resident Indians and corporate bodies are allowed to hold up to 100 per cent equity in domestic airlines.(Source : icfdc.com)

1.6 AVIATION REGULATOR

The Civil Aviation Ministry plans to table a Bill to establish an independent Civil Aviation Economic Regulatory Authority (CAERA). The new regulator would be responsible for formalising all charges to be levied on operators and ensuring a level playing field for all players. Its tasks would include fixing of tariff, finalising parking and user charges, issuing broad guidelines to service providers, settling disputes among stakeholders in new airports and arbitrating between various users and service providers, including airlines. Initially the scope of the regulator would be limited to regulating the economic aspects of Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad airports where there is private participation and AAI is a stakeholder. Henceforth, the AAI too would be answerable to the new regulator. To start with, CAERA is expected to be a single-member regulator assisted by technical staff. The Bill seeks to expand its role in the days ahead. That may become necessary anyway, given the liberalisation initiatives underway in the sector.

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2. MAJOR PLAYERS

Domestic market can be divided into 2 segments :Premium – Indian, Jet, Sahara, KingfisherNo Frills – Deccan, Spicejet, GO Air

(Compiled from respective websites)

AIRLINE CURRENT ACQUISITION INVESTMENT FLEET PLANS US$ billion Jet Airways 53 30 by 2012 2.0Air Deccan 29 79 by 2010 2.7Kingfisher 11 100 by 2012 4.5Spice Jet 6 38 by 2010 1.9GoAir 4 33 by 2008 2.4Indian 55 50

(Source : PPT by Exec Dir (AAI) at Airport forum in Dubai)

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The Domestic Aviation Market Share

34%

21%21%

8%

8% 2% 6% 0%Jet Airways

Indian

Deccan

Sahara

KingFisher

GoAir

SpiceJet

Chartered Flights

3. MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

Macro environment analysis refers to study of those factors which affect an organization but are beyond the control of an organization. These factors are uncontrollable.

Macro environment consist of following six broad areas: Political environment Economic environment Social environment Technological environment Demographic environment Natural environment

3.1 POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Indian political scenario has, is and will undergo various changes. Following are the various policy changes which might have an impact on aviation industry in coming years:

Open Sky PolicyIndia had this agreement with 40 countries and lately it signed the policy with UK, USA and European Union. According to this policy, The signatories are allowed to fly over the skies of India. Under this arrangement, airlines from EU member nations will be allowed to operate flights to India from any of the 25 EU nations regardless of the carrier's country of origin. Effect: Tourist arrivals in India are expected to grow exponentially, especially due to the open sky policy between India and the SAARC countries and the increase in bilateral entitlements with European countries, and the US. The increase in number of international tourists will percolate down to increase in domestic passengers..Deregulation

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Prior to 1991, aviation was nationalized and heavily regulated In 1953, the Air Corporation Act, 1953, changed the landscape of the airline industry in India.It was in 1994 that the Air Corporation Act was repealed and thus this allowed private operators to operate in the domestic airline and aviation industry. Requirements to become a scheduled operator air carrier in India have being reformed, the reduced restrictions on foreign direct investment is 49% for flights and 100% for airportsEffect: Entry into the air travel industry is not only cheaper, but also affordable to new operators

Modernization of AirportsThe Indian Cabinet has approved a proposal mandating the state-run airport operator to modernise 35 airports in second-tier cities within the next two years. The modernisation process will cost the government between Rs. 70 to 80 billion.Delhi (Rs.8,700 cr) to GMR and Mumbai Airport Modernisation (Rs.6,400 cr)to GVK are two biggest investment projects . Total investment on hand in airport infrastructure crossedRs.35,000 crore in the quarter ended January 2006.This investment was spread over 89 projects.Upgradation of Kolkata and Chennai airports is on anvil.. Simultaneously, 20 non-metro airports will be developed. Two biggest active projects are the Bangalore International Airports Authority Ltd (Rs.1.5 crore)and GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd (Rs.1.5 crore).Effect: Improved infrastructure would lead to rise in no. of travellers and also so would encourage more operators.

Abolishment of TaxesForeign Travel Tax (FTT) Rs500 and 15% inland air travel tax (IATT) charged on Basic airfare has been abolished by the government wef from January 9,2004 to reduce fares.

Reduction on Exise DutyFrom January 9,2004, the excise duty on ATF was reduced from 16 to 8 per cent The average domestic price of ATF is 99 per cent higher than prices in foreign countries and affects domestic airlines drastically as ATF accounts for 30 to 40 per cent of operating costsEffect : It would lead to low fares thus giving a boost to air travel

The government has reduced the average age of aircraft being imported into India for commercial airline operations by five years. Effect: It would lead to increase in imports of aircraft thus can discourage more operators coming in and improve services

Landing Charges abolishedLanding charges for aircraft with less than 80 seats were abolished and landing charges for larger aircraft have been reduced by 15% with effect from February 11,2004.

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3.2 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

India,ranked tenth in the world in 2004,is expected to be holding eighth rank in the world by 2014 and fourth rank in next years with a GDP of $1.15-1.4 trillion and $2.1-3 trillion respectively,and a projected growth rate of 6-8%. Effect: This rise in income levels along with introduction of no-frills flights will lead to

rise in no of travellers, more investments in aviation, more competition and rise in industrialization leading to more need of air transport

3.3 SOCIO-CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT

Change in LifestyleAverage income of middle class household is expected to rise to 194000 Rs by 2010 from 169000 Rs in 2001-02.No of households projected to be 43.6million in 2010. Effect: So there is going to be change in lifestyle and spending of people Due to this change people will prefer Low cost airlines instead of Railways first airconditioned thus rise in air traffic

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Rise in Leisure travelTourism industry grew 8.8 per cent over 2003- highest growth rate in the world. 3.2 million foreign tourists visited India last year.There has been an increase in leisure travel by tourists of 15% in 2004.Effect : It will lead to rise in no of tourist passengers thus more encouragement for new operators.

3.4 TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

Introduction Of Airbus A380The double deck Airbus A380 is the most ambitious civil aircraft program yet was launched in December 2000. An all new design Superjumbo, the Airbus A380 is the world's first twin-deck, twin-aisle airliner.It could be outfitted for special passenger uses such as sleeper cabins, business centers or even child care service. In a one-class configuration, the A380 could accommodate as many as 840 passengersAdvantages of the A380 include lower fuel burn per seat and lower operating costs per seat. Airbus states the A380 will use 20% less fuel and will fly quieter, cheaper and more environmentally friendly than the 747

ILS-Instrument Landing SystemInstrument landing system (ILS) facilities are a highly accurate means of navigating to the runway under low visibility conditions Various runway environment lighting systems serve as integral parts of the ILS system to aid the pilot in landingWhen using the ILS, the pilot determines aircraft position by instruments. ILS is classified according to capabilities of the ground equipment. Category I ILS provides guidance information down to a decision height (DH) of not less than 200 ft. Improved equipment (airborne and ground) provide for Category II ILS approaches.(DH of not less than 100feet)

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3.5 DEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT

Changing Structure of Consumers

Middle class population of India was 300 million in 2005 and is projected to be 400 million for 2010. Effect : For aviation, this growth is a remarkable achievement and a sign that the industry can only expand as more people gain the ability to purchase airline travel,supported by introduction of low-cost carriers.

High %age of young populationIndia has highest percentage of people in age group of 20-50, with high earning potential.Also younger segment has more mobility needs due to education or work,So it shows high probability of rise in Domestic air travel.

Higher number of literatesDue to rise in education awareness, there has been rise in no. of graduates and those pursuing higher studies.which translates into higher earning potential and higher spending on travel in future.

Nuclear FamiliesDue to lesser number of joint families and increasing nuclear families, there would be rise in air travel by children to meet their grandparents.

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3.6 NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

The average domestic price of ATF is 99 per cent higher than prices in foreign countries and affects domestic airlines drastically as ATF accounts for 30 to 40 per cent of operating costs After a fall in ATF in nov and dec by 2%, and 11%,for the 2nd consecutive month,ATF price in February soared by 3.5 % to the price prevailing in Jan 2006.(from Rs.35 a litre to Rs.36.2 a litre.) Earlier, under the fuel pricing mechanism the subsidy given to Kerosene/diesel was loaded onto ATF. While this has been phased out, States are now levying heavy Sales Tax on ATF which made it costly.Effect: Due to high factor costs, short haul operations are rendered unviable.It would lead to low profits thus discouraging new operators.

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4. PORTERS FIVE FORCE ANALYSIS

4.1THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS The entry is easy but various regulations make the launch of a new airline difficult. The factors which make the execution difficult are

• The capital requirement-An airline is required to have capitalization of minimum thirty crores without which it is not allowed to takeoff.

• Expected retaliation-The market is concentrated in the hands of a few players thus any new player would to face stiff competition and retaliation from the existing players such as Jet Airways and Indian.

• Legislation or government action-Along with the equity restrictions for floating an airline they also compel the airlines to operate on uneconomical routes such as

• Inadequate airport infrastructure often makes it difficult for the existing airlines to function smoothly and thus deters new ones from entering the market. Shortage of pilots and high fuel costs also pose a threat as the existing demands itself are not being fulfilled.

• Exit barriers-The high capital requirement makes it difficult for the companies to exit the market but being a growing industry the existing players are willing to acquire and make exit for an operator less difficult.

4.2POWER OF BUYERS

• The power of buyers is low because they are large in number and highly fragmented. The increasing GDP and the introduction of low cost airlines has not only increased the existing number of buyers but opened the doors for a huge opportunity of growth.

• However the power is not as low as it could be because of minimal switching cost and alternatives available. A customer does not have to incur an cost to move from one airline to another he might incur a cost if he has signed a contract otherwise no costs are involved which increases the power of the buyers. Along with this the various options available between airlines and even other modes of transport helps the buyers.

• Further there is no differentiation among the players in the same segment example the differences between Air Deccan and Spice Jet is minimal.

4.3POWER OF SUPPLIERS

The power of the suppliers are limited and thus their power is high.• Concentration of suppliers-The suppliers of pilots and ATF are

highly concentrated which increases their power.

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• Switching costs-If we look at the aircrafts there are only two suppliers Boeing and Air Bus thus the options available with the airlines to switch between is very limited and thus the switching costs are high but sometime the competition between the two manufacturers reduces the costs to some extent.

• Brand value-Less number of suppliers results in a high brand value which works in their favor and increases their bargaining power.

• Forward integration-The airlines also face a threat of forward integration. Though such an instance has not taken place in the past it may take place in the future as the suppliers have or know about most or the technical aspects of the industry.

• There is an acute shortage of pilots which makes the industry dependent on them.

• High fuel costs-Fuel accounts for nearly 35% of the total cost and the cost of fuel is increasing rapidly posing a threat to the companies profits.

4.4 AVAILABILITY OF SUBSTITUTE

• Product for product substitution-Consumers have various options in terms of airlines to choose from. They may also switch to other modes of transport such as road and rail.

• Substitution for need- With the advent of technology options such as video conferencing and conference calls reduces the need to travel thus the option of substitution of need in present but it is marginal as it is not possible to totally do away with traveling.

4.5 COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

The competition in the industry in high but the intensity of the competition has been reduced as it is an expanding market.

• The number of airlines is increasing which increases the level of competition among airlines. Earlier when we thought of airlines the only name would be Indian Airlines but today the list is long and growing with new carriers like Goair trying to make a mark in the industry. More over six new low cost airlines are expected to come up.

• High fixed costs and input constraints also add to the competitive pressures in the industry.

• Like every industry mergers and acquisitions take place here too which increases competitive rivalry between airlines which in turn force more airlines to opt for mergers and acquisitions thus forming a viscous circle of competition.

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• Low level of differentiation between the services offered by the different airlines increases the risk of switching and thereby adds to the competition.

• The industry is expected to grow at 22% which actually gives scope to the existing players and new ones to operate and reduces the extent of competition.

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6. FUTURE OF INDIAN AVIATION

According to A World Travel and Tourism Council report, India will be the fastest growing travel market in the world over the next decade (Financial Express, 2001). The study expects the Indian travel market will triple to $51 billion by 2011 from the $16.3 billion currently. Air Travel in India grew by 20% last year and Boeing has raised its 20 year market forecast for Aircraft purchases from $ 25 Billion to $ 35 Billion. More than 3 million Tourists visited India last year and the tourism industry grew by 8.8% YOY, highest in the world. The International Airlines are vying with each other and planning to increase there frequencies three fold. Apart from this various schemes are being used to attract more and more customers and also attract the customers of AC classes of Trains. Some of the methods that are being used are as follows:

• Low Price Tags • Apex Fares• Internet Auctions• Bulk Purchases• Last Day Fares

6.1 GROWTH INDICATORS• World Passenger traffic grew to 52.12 million in the last fiscal, from 43.47

million in 2004-05, to register a growth of 19.9 percent.• Robust growth of 24 % in last fiscal in Indian Aviation Industry.• Sector expected to expand by at least 16% annually for the next 5 years,

riding on the overall economic growth of 8%.

Forecast: Growth In Air Traffic

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Surging Air Traffic in Indian Metros

6.2 EXPANSION PLANS

The Burgeoning industry also demands fleet acquisition. Boeing has raised its 20-year market forecast for India for aircraft purchases from US$ 25 billion to US$ 35 billion. Both Airbus and Boeing are waiting for the next big order, expected from Air India. The airline is evaluating medium and large capacity aircraft and is expected to order 50wide-body jets, worth almost $5 billion at list prices. Airbus has been the beneficiary of alarge chunk of the new orders announced in 2004. The European consortium will sell about 100 planes to Indian Airlines, Air Deccan and Kingfisher Air, and now says it wants to give something back to India by setting up a state-of-the-art training cum-Maintenance centre. The company is awaiting government clearance for Indian Airlines' $4 billion order for 43 Airbus aircraft, a decision that was made two years ago.

6.3 ROADBLOCKS • Infrastructure Constraints• Shortage of Pilots• Obsolete Navigation Facilities• Inadequate Safety Norms• Congestion Problems• High Operating Costs

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6.4 POSITIVES• Greenfield airports –Bangalore/Hyderabad• J/Vs for Ground Handling and MRO facilities• Highly advanced GPS aided Geo augmented• navigation (GAGAN) system operational this year.• AAI set up more radar stations – to bring entire• Indian airspace under radar monitoring.• Training more Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers.• Raising retirement age of pilots to 65 from 61.

6.5 NEW ENTRANTSThe aviation sector is likely to see the launch of many new airlines, including:

• Premier Airways• Star Air• East West Airlines • Indigo• Jagson• Magic Air• Indus Air

6.6 FUEL PRICESThe government has raised the fuel prices by 7.5% in January 2006.Prices

increased from Rs. 32.56 a liter to Rs. 35 liter. Aircraft Fuel forms a major chunk of the revenue and hence any changes in the fuel prices effects the revenues in a major way.

Rise in ATF Prices (Rs/Kg)

A possible way of dealing with these rising fuel prices is FUEL HEDGING which as used extensively and very successfully by Southwest Airlines. They booked Future options of fuel and hence even when the fuel prices soared, they were able to procure fuel at very handsome prices.

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6.7 RECOMMENDATIONS Some recommendations to deal with the inefficiencies as suggested by WTC report are as follows:

• Allow all Indian Carriers, Public or Private-to operate International routes. • Lower the cost of aviation turbine fuel.• Lower the Landing and airport charges.• Strengthen and promote short haul tourism for business development,

trade and tourism.• Encourage of Proactive involvement of overseas investors and technical

managers in the privatization of airports.• Encourage commercial activities within airports such as hotel, restaurants

etc.• Ensure a healthy growth in traffic to the private airports.

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7. PROJECTIONS

Summary Table of the operating profit and loss of the Jet Airways

Years

Particulars

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062006-07

(Projection)

Sales 1982 2500 2526 2876 3447 4338 5238

Cost of goods sold 1163.82 1520.01 1474.16 1765.52 1755.52 2168.07

Contribution 817.94 980.04 1052.13 1110.4 1691.9 2169.94

Promotional Exp. 532.45 612.94 669.23 693.06 827.82 959.32

PBDIT 285.49 367.1 382.9 417.34 864.08 1210.62

Depreciation208.61 260.03 348.83 473.27 515.15

457(calculated from

% figure)

PBIT78.88 107.07 34.07 -55.93 348.93 753.62

No definiteTrend.

Notes:1. The above figures are picked, according to the objective of use, so the PBDIT

figure and the PBIT figures may differ from what the company has published in its annual report.

2. We have considered the items which affects the core business, items related to other business of the company other that operations i.e. investments etc, are not included in projecting the companies performance for the year 2006-07.

3. Some figures are not very accurate, because it has been derived from the percentage figure of the whole sales and so.

4. This is just an estimate and gives an idea of companies progress, so please be careful in using it as reference for some sensitive decisions.

Interpretation:1. In this table it is evident that the sales of the jet airways has increased by 25% in

the year 2001-02 but has suddenly stopped for the year 2002-03 in which year it appeared to be increased by only 1%. but this is not the true indicator of the companies performance in that year because, this is the year in which most of the companies has shown losses and had withdrawn their service after sluggish ness in the airline business because of the attack on the WTC, in sept. 11, 2001.

2. In the year 2002-03, though there was sluggishness in the market the company had increased its service to some more flights and more locations. 3. Coming down to the performance of the company again we can see that the

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company has recovered very soon and has posed a profit of approx.12.5% and hasshown a similar trend of 20% increase in the net revenue.

4. Thus if we consider the performance of the company in the year of the crisis to assess the future performance of the company it will represent a faulty projection for the company. So by excluding and projecting according to the trend that the company has shown it comes out to be a growth of 20% and thus will generate revenue of around 5238 crore.

5. In the year 2005-06 the company has introduced some aircrafts (Boeing 337-700, A340-300E), and due to soaring prices of ATF the company has incurred higher amount of expenses. It is difficult to determine whether company is going to increase more aircrafts and also the fluctuating oil prices. So, we could not predict the COGS of the company.

6. Another major reason, why the projection of the company is increasingly difficult is because, it has recently been allowed to operate overseas and for this company has been entering into many new contracts and trying to make acquisition like Sahara Airlines (which failed, though), in fact the company has also start operating in certain countries, in which it had not been earlier. Thus, it makes very difficult to come up with the projection of promotional expenses and other items of the P/L A/c and B/sheet.

7. But, if we presume that the company will be only as efficient as earlier years and there would not be any dramatic change in the market share of the company we can come up with the following projection table:

year Jet’s MarketShare

Total DomesticMarket

Market Share MarketGrowth(%)

Jet AirwaysMarket growth(%)

2000-01 1982 5223 38

2001-02 2500 5275 47 1 26

2002-03 2526 6009 42 14 1.04

2003-04 2876 7204 40 20 132004-05 3447 9063 38 25 192005-06 4338 11900 36 31 252006-07 5238 14994 35 26 20.75

8. Facing the same problem of an abnormal year of crisis which impacts the airline business heavily, we have averaged the growth of the four years only except 2000-01 and 2002-03 and got the simple average of 20.75 % and have been projecting it as the possible growth of the company for 2006-07.But the growth of the company may even be higher because our projection goes conservative because we have have not acknowledged the slow growth of the year 2003-04 and have considered it as a normal year.

So, we conclude that the market share of the jet airways will grow at 20.75 % with certain assumptions made above and because of the highly fluctuating ATF (Aviation Turbine Fuel), and growing competion and no definite trend in the different costs we decided not make any projection for the profit, which may be highly faulty.

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