Gabriel PassmorePOLS 410Special Topics: Civil WarCivil War Risk AssessmentPakistan

The current state of Pakistan finds itself again at the thresholds of unpredictability.

The country’s civilian government is not producing the economic and social results that it

was elected to do. Pakistan’s economy is virtually non-existent and the standard of living

has gone down due to depleted services. Pakistan has had a dismal history of the military

stepping in and governing the country when civilian rule becomes unproductive and

corrupt. While Pakistan was founded to be a Muslim country, it has become the home to

a multiplicity of different groups that are instituting religious extremism and violence

amongst society. Some of these groups involved include the Taliban from Afghanistan,

which has created the Pakistani Taliban Movement. This insurgency movement is

comprised of multiple militant groups that are charged for spreading violence and

intolerance to anyone who is opposed to their message. The government and the

military’s reluctance to do anything about these problems have left Pakistan’s society

under a blanket of fear and hopelessness. These insurgency groups as well as Pakistan’s

economic and governmental issues are the foundations for a possible civil war and a

collapsed state.

Elections

The ruling party of Pakistan’s parliament has ended their five-year term before the

country’s general elections. This move was in accordance with the constitution, which

closed all doors for any possible attempt to seize power by force. While this measure is

viewed as democratic, the government however did not perform that well in areas

concerning social services and law and order. Usually these measures would cause the

military to step in and rule the country, but for the most part the military has held back

and remains keeping a watchful eye on how the election process unfolds. Some of

Pakistan’s past military rulers while coming to power imposed martial law on the public

and suspended the constitution in order to secure their control. Other military rulers

established strict forms of Islam to govern Pakistani society while banning the media,

controlling the court systems, repressing women’s rights and often getting Pakistan

involved in stalemate wars with neighboring counties.

In the past as well as in the present day, Pakistan has had problems with corrupt

leadership whether it is from the civilian or the military governments. The dominate party

that is in control of Pakistan’s bicameral parliament is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),

which is a centrist party against a growing league of fundamental Muslim groups who

aim to take power in the mist of the PPP’s mishandling of the country’s political affairs.

Pakistan has had a history of dismissing prime ministers on charges of corruption, which

often leads to military intervention and in return, the military usually becomes ousted by

a civilian coalition on the same corruption charges. The Pakistani people will have to

decide in the upcoming elections about which direction they want the country to be

governed. In general, the prospects do not look good in regarding the options and

consequences throughout the election process. The Pakistani people can vote in the PPP

for another term even though they are unreliable and often corrupt at delivering social

services and law and order to the country.

If these measures of corruption continue to occur for the PPP, the military will

defiantly intervene in an effort to secure the country from political collapse. The return to

military rule means that Pakistan will have more restricted freedoms and human rights

abuses in order to install law and order back into the country. The Pakistani people can

choose to vote in another political party that may be worse than what the PPP has to

offer. If the PPP can win another term and deliver on the issues they failed at before then

maybe there will not be a need for more military rule and democracy can achieve another

milestone in a country plagued by corrupt leadership and unfair elections. If these

measures go in the other direction then Pakistan could face a return to military rule,

which will cause civil unrest.

Economy

Pakistan’s economy slowly lacks behind when compared to other developing

countries that rely heavily on their agriculture and technological exports as a way to

produce economic growth. Pakistan severely needs to pursue an export led growth

strategy that would improve the country’s economy and living standards. The country

continues to perform on a macroeconomic basis through its current export structure. In

order for Pakistan to improve its economic condition it “would require a major structural

transformation of the economy and changes in its export specialization

patterns”(Mahmood). These patterns are not occurring at a reasonable rate, which causes

Pakistan to rely on foreign imports in order to sustain its economy. Pakistan’s main

source of exports comes from their textiles and clothing sector. Given that the export

structure is a manifestation of the technological base would require and drive Pakistan to

move up the technological ladder, but instead this pattern has not occurred, which has

caused Pakistan’s economy to remain backward with very little economic growth.

Pakistan’s continued reliance on textiles and clothing exports has caused the country

to lag behind Southeast Asian economies that have moved away from low value products

to technology intensive high value manufacturing. “This pattern of export specialization

points to a failure to diversify export structure by moving into high added, relatively

technological and high skilled labor intensive product lines”(Mahmood). This failure to

expand into more technological exports will cause Pakistan’s textile and clothing sector

to become under increasing pressure from the lower producers, which could cause

manufacturing closers and unemployment due to cheaper prices from other producers.

Pakistan’s economy also remains unstable due to current account deficits and rising fiscal

imbalances that have occurred over a long period of time through past and present

leadership. Throughout the years, Pakistan has managed to accumulate a substantial

amount of debt through the induction of economic sanctions and reckless government

spending.

A great portion of Pakistan’s failed economy and high deficits can be contributed to

the country’s poor leadership. During the Zia era “the debt grew by the average annual

rate of 17.7 percent in normal terms and nearly 10 percent in real terms during this

period”(Hasan). This was due to the government’s heavy reliance on borrowing from

non-bank sources, which increased the debt by 40 percent by offering very high interest

rates. On through the 1990’s and well into present day, Pakistan’s economy remains in a

state of crisis due to continued government spending and borrowing while relying on a

one dimensional export market as a main source of revenue. The consequences for these

measures will require Pakistan to abide to the conditionality of the World Bank and IMF

in order to pay off their debt. Pakistan will also have to manage their economy with

limited growth in investment and imports. This will make it difficult for a quick recovery

in economic growth, which is urgently needed to create jobs and reverse the trend

towards increasing the onset of poverty. If Pakistan continues this economic trend then

their whole financial structure will eventually collapse, leaving people jobless, which

could trigger mass protests and systematic rioting that will leave the country in a state of

civil upheaval.

Insurgency Groups

Pakistan has become the host to an array of many different insurgency groups that all

have on thing in common and that is the establishment of a fundamental Islamic

government for all of Pakistan. Pakistan is an Islamic country through and large, but

some provinces as well as the capital in Islamabad offer a more secular interpretation of

Islam than what the fundamentalists prefer. These groups have been explicitly

indoctrinating and instituting religious extremism and violence throughout Pakistan. One

of these insurgency groups is the Taliban who moved into the region after they were

ousted from power in Afghanistan by U.S. forces. After the ouster of Pakistan’s last

military ruler Pervez Musharraf, the country’s new civilian government fell into a state of

political disarray that ignited protests against a divided corrupt government that were

continuing with some of the past administrations policies that involved the barring of

certain individuals from the election process. The general collapse of law and order

during these protests provided a strategic boost towards the Taliban that raised concerns

about the long-term stability of the state of Pakistan that the Taliban aimed to take

advantage of. This measure of state weakness can be related to the theories of Fearon and

Laitin regarding insurgency strength and how well a government is organized. In this

case the Taliban is going to use Pakistan’s state weakness to their advantage by moving

forward with their agenda while the government is in disarray. The Taliban will be able

to strengthen its forces before the government finds out what happened.

The Taliban has increasingly strengthened its forces in Pakistan’s Federally

Administered Tribal Areas along the border with Afghanistan and also in the Provincially

Administered Tribal Areas of the Northwest Frontier Province. Islamist figures have

made their way into Pakistan led by Maulana Sufi Mohammad and his son-in-law

Maulana Oazi Fazlullah, they both established a reformist movement called the

Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law. This movement embarked on a campaign

of violent unrest that has pressured the Pakistani government to conform to their demands

that included the posting of special religious judges to oversee the local courts for the

enforcement of shariah law. The Islamists have gained control of many different

Pakistani provinces throughout the Swat Valley region by using violence to manipulate

and coerce the government into allowing them to establish their own local governments

while disregarding the constitution. “Sufi Mohammad and Fazlullah were exposed as

being entirely insincere, effectively using negotiations with the government as a ruse to

paper over their contempt for the constitution and their push to seize power by

force”(Nelson). This movement has effectively been able to create an Islamic court

system based on the enforcement of shariah law at the local government level, which has

provided the Taliban with a safe haven to conduct terrorist operations. “The Pakistani

public at large was provided with an opportunity to assess the Pakistani Taliban

movements apparent intentions of never laying down its arms en route to enforcing its

own understanding of shariah”(Nelson).

Islamic insurgency groups have been patronized by the Pakistani government of their

partnerships in pursuing Pakistan’s objectives in Afghanistan and India. Since then many

of these insurgency groups have defected and have begun to target the Pakistani state

because of its support for the American war on terror. These anti-Pakistani militants

formed under the banner of the Taliban Movement of Pakistan, which has ties to anti-

Shia sectarian groups such as the Soldiers of the Sahaba and the Army of Jhangvi that

draws it support from the Assembly of Islamic Clergy. Their goal is to undermine

Pakistani law and establish micro-emirates of shariah law within specific provinces

throughout the country. The Taliban Movement of Pakistan is guilty of launching attacks

on Pakistan’s military, police, intelligence, civilian officials, and infrastructure. This

militant group also targets non-aligned religious sects that represent a more moderate

interpretation of Islam. Instead of trying to ultimately defeat these insurgency groups,

Pakistan’s military has been appeasing them through various peace deals, which only

allows them to keep operating within the country.

Pakistan’s intelligence agency (ISI) does little to nothing in trying to deter the

insurgency movement because they believe that these groups can be used in Pakistan’s

fight against India and in managing Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Civilians, serving

soldiers, and officers in Pakistan’s armed forces have facilitated many of the various high

level attacks on Pakistan’s military facilities and personnel. The military’s reluctant effort

to effectively stop the growing insurgency movement within Pakistan has caused these

groups to progress throughout the country and wage war on anyone opposed to their

message. The Pakistani Taliban Movement and their forty comprised militant groups

have aggressively proposed and enforced shariah law in several provinces within

Pakistan that are met with horrific consequences if not obeyed. This was the case when

the insurgents shot a fourteen year-old female education activist in the Swat Valley for

her recognizable stance against shariah law. These actions have put Pakistan’s citizens in

fear for their life that if they do not conform to these laws then they will be killed because

the Pakistani government is not pursuing any action to combat this growing problem,

which is sending the country into chaos.

The Pakistani Taliban Movement is also targeting the country’s educational system

because of its opposition to the prevailing system for women’s education. The insurgents

have damaged and destroyed at least ninety-six school buildings as of 2012. The

insurgent movement caused the destruction of these schools for the sole reason of making

sure the general public is not properly educated so they will not be able to form an

opinion or think for themselves. Instead of teaching math and science, the insurgents

insist that young boys are to be taught at a madrasah, which only offers religious

instruction. The insurgents that infiltrate these madrasah’s espouse extremist ideologies

such as a radical form of jihad, which urges young boys to fulfill their spiritual obligation

by fighting against the Pakistani government or Muslims of other sects while women are

excluded from education altogether. The international community can stop this spread of

cultural violence by helping to strengthen Pakistan’s secular education system. Rather

than sending money to the Pakistani government, which is often diverted through

corruption, public and private assistance should be used in the form of non-fundable

goods and services such as books, teachers, buildings, and training. If the Pakistani

government does not do more to stop the infiltration of the Taliban movement then the

country will slowly succumb to more violence as the insurgents grow stronger while the

military becomes weaker, which would bring the country into the onset of a civil war.

Intolerance

There is a great divide in Pakistan among the different religious groups that are

intolerable of one another based on their beliefs. The absence of a strong set of ethics and

principals makes these groups vulnerable to increased violence. None of these groups

display the will to compromise or respect the other point of view. A great deal of

intolerance comes from the religious division between moderate/secular and fundamental

interpretations of Islam. Hard line fundamentalists like the Taliban do not refer to

themselves as terrorists, anti-state, or enemies of Islam, but instead they believe that they

are interpreting the correct and purist form of Islam that true Muslims should be

following. The fundamentalists portray themselves as the purifiers of the nation and if all

Pakistani citizens follow the shariah in a particular manner then society will be pure and

free from the deviant elements that corrupt a nation.

The rejection of the fundamentalist’s claims comes at a price in which they are

severely intolerable towards Muslims who practice a more moderate/secular

interpretation of Islam. It is not uncommon in Pakistan to become the victim of an

assassination by speaking out and being vocal about military action against the

fundamentalists. “Their latest high profile victim has been a well-known and well-

respected scholar who was killed in his seminary by a teenage suicide bomber. This vocal

scholar had supported the military action underway against the Taliban and had issued a

fatwa that suicide attacks were un-Islamic”(Zaidi). Moderate/secular Muslims in Pakistan

have always been willing to have an open dialogue with the fundamental Muslims

through a compromise about the respect over each group’s beliefs. The fundamentalists

are reluctant to move from their religious platform because they view a compromise with

the moderate Muslim society as degrading and incomprehensible to their faith. This

measure of intolerance has caused the moderate Muslim population in Pakistan to live in

a state of fear over their condemnation against the Taliban and their fundamental

interpretation of Islam. “They dug out bodies from graves and hung these already dead

bodies in public squares in some towns in the Swat region to teach other Muslims a

lesson”(Zaidi).

Pakistan has also had an emergence of intolerance from the two dominant Islamic

Sunni and Shia religious sects as well as increased violence against the Christian minority

and individuals who are opposed to the country’s existing blasphemy laws. Ethnic

violence is still persistent in Pakistan’s tribal regions as the military and insurgents try to

control their sovereignty. Sunni and Shia intolerance is derived from a heavily contested

question in Pakistan that asks, just who speaks for Islam? Both religious sects have their

own platforms concerning their origins and historical linkage as to who is the closest

descendents to the Prophet Mohammad. Sectarian violence has escalated between the two

sects were at least 375 Shias have been killed as of 2012. This is an increase from the

Sunni/Shia attacks that were committed in the 1990’s. Sunni and Shia extremism has

increased in the Kurram Agency, which is a tribal Pushtun region that has a significant

Shia population. The influx of Afghan refugees has increased the numbers of Sunnis

residing in the region, which has resorted to both sects fighting each other. The local

Taliban has aggravated the situation by supporting Sunni against Shias, which has

resulted in hundreds of deaths between the two religious sects.

Local government officials are being targeted for wanting to reform Pakistan’s flawed

blasphemy laws and showing tolerance towards Christians. This was the case in which a

Punjab Governor was killed for advocating blasphemy law reform and publicly

suggesting that President Zardari pardon a Christian woman who has been sentenced to

death. In a similar incident, Pakistan’s Minister of Minorities Shahbaz Bhatti, who is a

Christian himself, was shot dead while the killer of Punjab’s Governor was celebrated

throughout the country as a hero. Both of these murders expose the growing threat of

intolerance towards religious minorities and the lack of ethics and principals that are

supposed to unite a country. The allegations of breaking blasphemy laws can often result

into violent mobilizations targeting religious minorities, which was the case in Islamabad

when a young girl was accused of desecrating the Quran that sparked a violent reaction

from a crowd that caused a neighborhood of Christians to flee for fear of reprisals.

Pakistan faces another challenge to intolerance by its violent rivalries against different

ethnic tribal groups throughout the region. Pakistan’s Balochistan Province continues to

be a challenge to violence and inter-ethnic carnage. For years the Balochistan ethnic

majority has been trying to gain its independence from Pakistan as a federal structure.

Pakistan’s military has responded to their political mobilization with lethal force.

“Hundreds of activists were subjected to forced disappearances while many were killed

and their bodies dumped and others still remain unaccounted for”(Fair). Without official

recalcitrance and impunity, there are few hopes that Balochistan’s ethnic community will

ever see peace and security in the region. This measure of ethnic violence can be related

to the case study on Sri Lanka were the Tamils were fighting the Sinhalese government

for their ethnic autonomy. In this case the Balochistani’s represent the Tamils who want

their independence from Pakistan who represent the Sinhalese and in the end the

government suppresses the Balochistani people the same way it did the Tamils.

The Pushtun ethnic group from Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province has also been

subjected to intolerance by the invading Taliban movement. The Pushtun ethnic majority

is comprised of a secular nationalist culture and society that has resented any influence

from the Taliban. The Pakistani Taliban Movement is not the outgrowths of traditional

Pushtun ethnonationalism. The insurgents are attempting to impose their own brand of

Islam on the ethnic Pushtun people. The Pushtun’s stand united for peace, but the Taliban

have brought war to their land in which the Pushtun’s are forced to fight for their

sovereignty or become ethnically cleansed by the insurgents. This epidemic of social

intolerance against different religious and ethnic groups is deteriorating any remaining

foundations of ethics and principals within Pakistan’s society. If this intolerance

continues and if these groups cannot get past their differences and come to some sort of a

compromise then Pakistan as a country will be heading down a road to civil war instead

of peace and prosperity.

Annotated Bibliography

Fair, Christine C. “Pakistan in 2010: Flooding, Government Inefficiency, and Continued

Insurgency.” Asian Survey 51 (2011): 97-110. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.

The Taliban Movement of Pakistan emerged in the country after their ouster from

Afghanistan. This article helped identity the insurgency group and their significant goals

of undermining Pakistani law and creating shariah law in specific provinces throughout

the country.

Fair, Christine C. “Pakistan 2011: Ten Years of the “War on Terror.” Asian Survey 52

(2012): 100-113. JSTOR. Web. Apr. 2013.

The Pakistani Taliban consists of different militant groups within the insurgency that

harbor the same ideology and goals. This article highlighted what groups the insurgents

attack and how the military and intelligence services are unwilling to defeat the militants.

This article also had information about the ethnic violence in the Balochistan province

and the killings of religious minorities.

Ghufran, Nasreen. “Pushtun Ethnonationalism and the Taliban Insurgency in the North

West Frontier Province of Pakistan.” Asian Survey 49 (2009): 1092-1114. JSTOR.

Web. 26 Apr. 2013.

The Pakistani Taliban have forced their way into the North West Frontier Province and

the Federally Administered Tribal Area regions of Pakistan with the goal of establishing

Talibanization onto the Pushtun people. This article shows how the Pushtun people have

been resistant towards a non-ethnic entity like the Taliban who invaded their land and

push their brand of Islam on an ethnic group who are socially and culturally diverse.

Hasan, Parvez, Fateh M. Chaudhri, Eatzaz Ahmad. “Pakistan’s Debt Problem: It’s

Changing Nature and Growing Gravity.” Pakistan Development Review 38 (1999):

435-470. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.

Pakistan’s economy is virtually non-existent when compared to the economies of other

developing nations. This article examined how Pakistan’s past leadership helped to

contribute to the country’s current debt problem through government spending and

economic sanctions.

Mahmood, Amir, and Mohammed Nishat. “Export Competitiveness and Comparative

Advantage of Pakistan’s Non-Agriculture Production Sectors: Trends and

Analysis.” Pakistan Development Review 43 (2004): 541-561. JSTOR. Web. 23

Apr. 2013.

Pakistan has one of the worst economies in the world due to its failure to pursue an

export growth strategy. This article explained why Pakistan’s economy continues to

erode because of its resilience to export in more technology than relying on textiles to

improve the economy and living standards.

Malik, Anas. “Pakistan in 2012: An Assertive Judiciary in a Pre-Election Year.” Asian

Survey 53 (2013): 34-46. JSTOR. Web. 26 Apr. 2013.

The Pakistani Taliban Movement are responsible for a majority of the violence that is

targeted towards innocent civilians. This article highlights some of the violent incidents

that have occurred in Pakistan at the hands of the Taliban because of religious intolerance

towards a secular society.

Nelson, Matthew J. “Pakistan in 2009: Tackling the Taliban?” Asian Survey 50 (2010):

112-126. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.

The growing strength of the Pakistani Taliban has gained a stronghold in Pakistan’s tribal

regions. This article describes the founding leaders of the insurgency movement and their

intent to establish Islamic courts in Pakistan while bypassing the constitution for the

induction of shariah law.

Stern, Jessica. “Pakistan’s Jihad Culture.” Foreign Affairs 79 (2000): 115-126. JSTOR.

Web. 26 Apr. 2013.

The Pakistani Taliban is using its influence to try to control the education system in

Pakistan. This article explains how the Taliban is using the madrasahs to radicalize young

boys into jihad while excluding women from an education.

Zaidi, Akbar S. “Pakistan’s Wars Within Islam.” Economic and Political Weekly 44

(2009): 8-9. JSTOR. Web. 26 Apr. 2013.

The Taliban view themselves as practicing the true teachings of Islam while others are

condemned as portraying a falsified version. This article describes how the Taliban

consider their violent actions towards nonbelievers as legitimate to their cause.