Estimation of future changes in extreme Estimation of future changes in extreme climate events for the user and climate events for the user and decision-making communities decision-making communities

Clare Goodess

WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010

Climatic Research Unit, UEA, UK

Who are the ‘users’? What do they want?

Impacts modellers (research community) Decision/policy makers: e.g., urban/built environment - planners,

local/regional authorities, service/building engineers, architects, small businesses, consultants, professional bodies

o Impact sectors: water, agriculture, health, tourism and visitor economy, insurance, energy, transport…………………………

– National climate change projections (UKCP09)– Urban system modelling– Development of codes of practice (building services)– Assessment of vulnerability to current extremes– Integrated assessments based on indicators (Mediterranean)

DiverseDepends on application

UKCP09 national climate change projectionsUKCP09 national climate change projections

weathergenerator

dailytime series

probabilisticprojections

over land

monthly/ seasonal

PDFs

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

Tailoring of information: extremes (spatial & temporal scales),

processes, presentation (tools)

e.g., SCORCHIO:the Urban Heat Island and the SCHEEME decision-making tool

McCarthy et al., IJC, submitted

Summer simulation (May-September) Ringway dry bulb temperature and solar radiation )

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Internal Air Temperature °C

Total solar kWh

Building type & ageGlazing, orientation, shadingventilation, (vegetation)

Extract Climate runs for each case study area as data inputs for building simulations (Design Builder)

Run simulations for building adaptations

Building scale tool to allow the interrogation of the database of simulation runs

Building Scale Simulations and Data interrogation Tool

Overview of the components of

SCORCHIO and the SCHEEME tool

prototypes

City NeighbourhoodCity Neighbourhood

Climate Models

Downscaling5km output Weather

GeneratorCurrent baseline; Future (2050s current urban & current anthropogenic heat);

Future (2050s current urban & 3x anthropogenic heat), Mean Tmax/Tmin JJA, DJF, 50th %-ile 95th%-ile, 99th %-ile TMax

25km output Case Study areas

Rochdale

Salford

Manchester

Heat emissions estimation model

Empirical model of current temperatures

Vulnerability mapping (socio-economic sensitivity)

Legend

Density of flats per km2 of a UMT unit

< 25

25 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200 (max 595)0 10 205

Kilometers

Exposure mapping

Transect data collection

Measures of Hazard

City Scale Visualisations: Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)

Measures of Vulnerability

Measures of Exposure

Street and building wall orientations andsky view factor estimation (JMW)

Automation of building classifications

Exposure mapping

Addition of height data (CR)

CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

Building function: classifications & ages

Canyon ModelCurrent and future what-if scenariosCase study form - temperature-related

urban morphological properties

Climate Models

Downscaling5km output Weather

GeneratorCurrent baseline; Future (2050s current urban & current anthropogenic heat);

Future (2050s current urban & 3x anthropogenic heat), Mean Tmax/Tmin JJA, DJF, 50th %-ile 95th%-ile, 99th %-ile TMax

25km output

Heat emissions estimation model

Empirical model of current temperatures

Transect data collection

Risk map

Design Summer Years (DSYs) for use in building performance models

Challenges for the user community:

• Current DSYs don’t represent present extremes• Need to handle climate variability as well as change• Need to work with uncertainty (e.g., multiple emissions scenarios)• And now need to work with probabilities (UKCP09)• Range of ‘users’: engineers/consultants, architects & their clients

And for ‘producers’: e.g., weighted cooling degree hours

CIBSE TM36, 2005

DSY: April-Sept mean TMid-year of the upper quartileBased on 1983-2004

... to consequences

Climate Change

Potential impacts on:

Markets

Logistics

Process

Finance

People

Premises

Management response

Reputational risk

Health & safety risk

Strategic riskFinancial risk

Operational risk

Environmental risk

Impacts on

MarketsFinancesLogisticsProcessesPremisesPeople

Consequences for organisation & stakeholders

Can help local authorities to achieve National Indicator NI188 ‘Planning to adapt to climate change’

Local climate impacts profile (LCLIP)

Business areas climate impacts assessment (BACLIAT)

Understanding the problem: from climate ...

Trends

Hotter, drier summers

Milder, wetter winters

Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours

Sea level rise

EventsHeat

waves

Droughts

Floods

Fewer cold snaps

Storms

ImpactsDamage to physical assets

Loss of access to buildings

Effects on biological/ industrial processes

Uncomfortable indoor environments

Damage to critical infrastructure

Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes

Changing commodity prices/ availability

Consequences

Loss of business continuity

Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs

Health/ comfort implications for employees

Increased/ decreased productivity

Changing markets

Effect on reputation

Extremes are at the heart of many impact assessments and moves towards adaptation

Tools such as UKCP09 weather generator and threshold detector can

inform LCLIPs/BACLIATs

• But can’t provide information about all requested extremes (especially compound events)• And some problems with persistence of extremes• And equivalent information from local observations is often not available

Average annual number of heat waves (Heat Weather Watch Plan definition: Tn > 15°C & Tx > 30°C for at least 2 consecutive days) for Cambridge for baseline (left) and future periods (2020s medium emissions; 2050s low, medium and high emissions). Upper and lower 95% confidence intervals across 100 weather generator runs/change factors are shown.0

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http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ Final conference: Giannakopoulos

Importance of ‘benchmarking’

http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ Final conference: Giannakopoulos

Multi-model RCM ensembles and extremes

Climate hazardsTotal rainfall; Rainfall intensity & flash floods;

Temperature; Heatwaves; Very hot days/nights; UHI; Thermal comfort

Peri-urban firesForest fires; Area burnt

Fire Risk Index; Area of peri-urban forest; Environmental protection

(including fire prevention investment)

Urban economy (energy)Electricity consumption; energy

contribution to the economy; GNP change; population change

Urban societyHealth & Well-being: All-cause mortality;

Ozone exceedance; % vulnerable population; Health expenditure;

Population density / growth Regional policyEnvironmental management &

protection; Urban planning / sustainability

Climate indicators in the CIRCE case-study integrated

assessmentse.g. Athens urban case study

Very hot nights: Tn95 summer = 26°C

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10-year Mov. Avg.

Figure 3: Annual number of very hot nights, anomalies from the 1971-2000 average (left

axis, bars) for the NOA station. 10-year moving average of very hot nights (right axis, solid line)

What is it?What does it show?Why is it important?

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/circe/index.html

Some concluding remarks• Focus on Temp and Prec (gaps: wind, hail ........ and

particularly compound events/sequences)• Focus on ‘moderate’ extremes indices based on 5/10th and

90/95th percentiles (subsets from STARDEX/ETCCDI) often with user-friendly names (e.g. hot/tropical nights)

• Compromise between robustness and relevance/resonance for impacts and users

• Tailoring to very diverse and growing needs vs consistency and comparability (monitoring and integrated assessment)

• Communication of uncertainty is increasingly important and complex

• Are there some needs we shouldn’t be trying to meet (e.g., very high spatial/temporal resolution)?

Thank you!Thank you!